2007 - Opec

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World Oil Outlook 2007

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

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© OPEC Secretariat, 2007 Obere Donaustrasse 93 A-1020 Vienna, Austria www.opec.org ISBN 978-3-200-00965-3



OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental organization, established in Baghdad, Iraq, 10–14 September 1960. The Organization now comprises 12 Members: Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The Organization has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. Its objective is to co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure a steady income to the producing countries; an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations; and a fair return on capital to those investing in the petroleum industry.

Acknowledgements Research Division Hasan M Qabazard, Director, Research Division Project co-ordinator Mohamed Hamel, Head, Energy Studies Department Main contributors Garry Brennand Jan Ban Fuad Siala Namat Abu Al-Soof Additional contributors Ivan Sandrea Martin Tallett Ramiro Ramirez Mohammad Mazraati Safar Keramati Editor James Griffin Secretarial support Anne Rechbach Marie Brearley Art designer Alaa Al-Saigh Typesetting Andrea Birnbach Additional support was provided by Omar Ibrahim, Mohammad Alipour-Jeddi, Ibibia Worika, Fuad Al-Zayer, Puguh Irawan, Ramadan Janan, Ali Nasir, Kurt Zach, Claude Clemenz, Monika Psenner, Gertrud Schmidl, Aziz Yahyai, Firouz Azarnia, Christian Pold, Hannes Windholz, Pantelis Christodoulides, Sheela Kriz OPEC’s Economic Commission Board Mustapha Hanifi, Luís Neves, Novian Thaib, Javad Yarjani, Mahdi Al-Nakeeb, Nawal Al-Fuzaia, Ahmed El Geroushi, Ayo Balogun, Sultan Al-Binali, Yasser Mufti, Ali Al-Yabhouni, Fernando Valera

Contents Foreword

1

Executive summary

5

Section One Oil supply and demand outlook to 2030

12

Section Two Oil downstream outlook

80

Footnotes

120

Annexes

122

Section One

Oil supply and demand outlook to 2030 Chapter 1

Overview of the reference case Key assumptions Oil price Economic growth Energy and oil demand Oil supply Upstream oil investment CO2 emissions Comparisons of oil supply and demand projections: OPEC, IEA and US DOE/EIA Oil demand Oil supply

15 15 15 16 20 24 27 29 30 30 31

Chapter 2 Demand by sector Transportation sector Distinguishing between passenger cars and commercial vehicles Passenger car ownership Commercial vehicles Oil use per vehicle Transportation oil demand projections Other sectors Demand by product