The year 2015 saw the global threshold of 1 million electric cars on the road ... Electric cars refers here to battery e
Global EV Outlook 2016 Electric vehicles
Charging infrastructure There are an estimated total of 1.45 million electric car charging points worldwide in 2015. Publicly accessible charging facilities have been following the growth trend of the electric car stock in the past year.
The year 2015 saw the global threshold of 1 million electric cars¹ on the road exceeded, closing at 1.26 million. In 2014, only about half of today's electric car stock existed. In 2005, electric cars were still measured in hundreds. 2015 also saw more than 200 million electric two wheelers on the road, and 170 000 buses, primarily in China.
Geographical distribution of the 2015 stock of EVSE outlets by charger type China Japan United States United Kingdom Germany Norway France Netherlands Sweden Canada Others Outlets
EV sales and market share in a selection of countries and regions, 2015 25% 20%
150
15%
100
10%
50
5%
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 market share
0% China
Norway The Netherlands
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
France
Sweden
Others
1% 4% 4%
Publicly available, slow
7%
2% 3%
4%
32% 6%
6%
25%
600 400 200 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Evolution of battery energy density and cost
Battery cost (PHEV) 2020 Tesla Battery cost target (BEV) 2022 Battery cost target (PHEV) 2022 GM Battery cost target (BEV) Energy density (PHEV) 2022 Energy density target (PHEV)
1 200
500
1 000
400
800 300 600 200 400 100
200
0
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
2022
Key point: The trends of battery energy density and cost over the past decade give encouraging signs on the possibility of meeting targets defined by carmakers and the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) for 2020 and 2022.
Policy support
Deployment scenarios for the stock of electric cars to 2030
Purchase incentives are among the most relevant and the most effective instruments promoting electric car sales.
25 000
20%
20 000
16%
15 000
12%
10 000
8%
5 000
4%
0
0%
Share of PHEV or BEV in total car market
Estimates of purchase incentives and market shares for electric cars (BEVs and PHEVs), 2015 Estimated magnitude of purchase incentive (USD)
22%
11%
Since 2008, battery costs were cut by a factor four and battery energy density had a fivefold increase. Technological developments hold the promise to continue to deliver improvements in the forthcoming years.
2015
Key point: The uptake of electric cars has been growing since 2010, with a BEV uptake slightly ahead of PHEV uptake. 80% of the electric cars on road worldwide are located in the United States, China, Japan, the Netherlands and Norway.
PHEVs BEVs BEV market share PHEV market share
28 thousand outlets
13% 18%
10%
10%
Battery cost (USD/kWh)
800
44% 162 thousand outlets
Key point: Country profiles differ with respect to the development of EVSE infrastructure. China and Japan account for more than 65% of fast-charging outlets. The geographical distribution of publicly accessible slow chargers is closer to the distribution of electric cars and private charging outlets.
Electric cars in the vehicle stock (millions)
Electric car stock (thousands)
Others Canada Germany United Kingdom France Norway Netherlands Japan China United States BEV BEV + PHEV
1 000
4%
Battery technology improvements
Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-15 1 200
29%
5%
Key point: The two main electric car markets are China and the United States. Seven countries have reached over 1% EV market share in 2015 (Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, China and the United Kingdom).
1 400
7%
12%
4%
1.3 million outlets
7%
Publicly available, fast
Battery energy density (Wh/L)
200
Market share (2015)
New electric car registrations (thousands)
250
Private²
160 140
Historical
120
IEA 2DS
100
Paris Declaration
80 IEA 4DS
60 40
EVI 2020 target
20
Cumulative country targets
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Key point: Policies deployed in different countries result in different purchase incentives and BEV over PHEV adoption patterns, with Norway's purchase incentives level standing out for both BEVs and PHEVs.
Key point: Individual country commitments would bring 13 million electric cars on the road by 2020. The EVI aims at a deployment of 20 million electric cars by 2020. In both cases, reaching 2020 deployment targets for BEVs and PHEVs requires a sizeable growth of the electric car stock. Meeting 2030 decarbonisation and sustainability goals requires a major deployment of electric cars in the 2020s.
1. Electric cars refers here to battery electric (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
2. Private chargers are estimated assuming that each electric vehicles is coupled with a private charger.
China
France
Japan
The Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
© Global EV Outlook (GEO 2016) OECD/IEA, 2016. 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. GEO 2016 is subject to the IEA terms and conditions at www.iea.org/t&c/.
© Global EV Outlook (GEO 2016) OECD/IEA, 2016. 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. GEO 2016 is subject to the IEA terms and conditions at www.iea.org/t&c/.
