2017 Global health care sector outlook Infographic_05012017 - Deloitte

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sector outlook. Deloitte's yearly look at the topics, trends, and issues impacting the global health care sector. Global
2017 global health care sector outlook Deloitte's yearly look at the topics, trends, and issues impacting the global health care sector

Global health care spend projected to reach

$8.7 trillion by 2020

% of GDP spent on health care should also rise slightly,

from an estimated 10.4 % in 2015 to 10.5 % in 2020

Where is the growth expected? Emerging and lower-income countries will drive the rise in health care expenditures through 2020 as well as the expansion of services in developed countries. Health care growth rates through 2020 4%

4.3%

7.5%

Western Europe

North America

Transition Economies

4.2%

2.4%

5%

Middle East and Africa

Latin America

Asia & Australasia

Global health care drivers By 2020, 50 percent of global health care expenditures – about $4 trillion – will be spent on three leading causes of death: cardiovascular diseases, cancer and respiratory diseases.

Number of diabetes sufferers is expected to rise from the current 415

million to

642 million by 2040.

HIV-AIDS continues to affect 36.9 million people worldwide, around 70 percent of them living in Sub-Sahara Africa. The Zika virus and associated upsurge in microcephaly are major threats in Latin America.

Prevalence of dementia is forecast to increase in every region of the world and is anticipated to double every 20 years, reaching 74.7

million by 2030.

Aging population (> 65 yrs old) will increase by eight

percent, from 559 million in 2015 to 604 million in 2020.

Care delivery Cost Operations Innovation

Top issues and trends

Regulatory compliance

Cost Cost containment measures

Health care spending trends

Clinical pathways Health care spending in the world's major regions increases from 2.4 percent to 7.5 percent between 2015 and 2020

Standardized clinical processes Technology-assisted services

Health care expenditures as a percentage of GDP are projected to rise more quickly in low-income countries due to limited government reimbursements for respiratory conditions

Shared services centers Lower-cost and non-traditional settings Strategic procurement

Cardiovascular disease costs continue to rise for lower and middle-income countries

Increased use of generic drugs and biosimilars Achieve economies of scale

Care delivery Issues & solutions that are impacting care delivery

Lack of access to basic health care services and variations in care quality

Intermittent or chronic funding shortfalls combined with other market drivers

Lack of clinicians-especially general practitioners and specialists

Technology-enabled, virtual care to help bridge the care delivery gap

Addressing social determinants of health and wellness are anticipated to have an increasing impact on the care equation

The number of hospital beds are declining spurred by regional economic slumps, decreased government spending on health care, hospital closings and consolidations, and pricing pressures Regional comparison of number of beds (per 1,000 of population)

CAGR 7.70

Economies in Transition

(0.7%)

8.29 4.81

Western Europe

(0.7%)

5.14 2.81

North America

(0.3%)

2.91 2.01

Asia and Australasia

(04%)

2.09 2.12

Latin America

0.3%

2.05 2020

2010

Innovation Advancing health care sector innovation is a clinical and cost imperative

According to the Deloitte 2016 Survey of U.S. Health Care Consumers, respondents’ interest in and use of technologies for health and fitness purposes are growing:

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) 3D-printed devices Immunotherapy

Top 10 innovations to achieve more for less in health care

58 percent of prescription drug users report refilling prescriptions using a mobile health application. 40 percent of surveyed caregivers would likely use sensors for location tracking and fall detection.

Artificial intelligence (AI) Point-of-care (POC) diagnostics Virtual reality (VR)

Consumer interest in using telemedicine ranges from 32 percent for a minor injury to 49 percent for post-surgical care.

Leveraging social media to improve patient experience Biosensors and trackers

Consumers also express interest in using robotics and drones for future health care scenarios, such as medication assistance for chronic disease (40 percent); disease diagnosis assistance (40 percent); delivering laboratory samples (38 percent); home maintenance (caregiver) (35 percent); and disease diagnosis replacement (32 percent).

Convenient care Telehealth

Operations Health systems will likely need to implement new business and clinical operating models to deliver scalable, efficient, and high-quality care, and to reduce waste, redundancies, and costs that threaten system sustainability

Three sector trends

vertical and horizontal consolidation patient engagement

Key ingredients for productive health care operations

market disruptors

...are indicative of health systems' increasing focus

safe, standardized, and evidence-based processes

Potential enablers of patient activation and engagement

a competent, well-trained workforce

An organizational culture

effective use of innovative technologies

Formal channels

Processes to chart progress on patient engagement Peer support, self-management education, health coaching, and group activities Workforce training

Investments in the right technology

Employee skills in using interactive technology automatic information delivery methods

The continuing trend of “bigger is better” is apparent in the number of U.S. announced hospital mergers and acquisitions going back as far as 1998. Number of Deals

350 300

296

287

200

244

175 135

132

110

100

86

118 83 58

98

99

00

01

125

101

02

88 38

56

03

59

04

51

(1)

05

58

57

06

(2)

178

158

149

50 0

249

236

250

150

Number of Hospitals

60

07

80

78 52

08

09

72

90

10

107

11

12

100

88

13

(3)

14

(1) In 2004, the privatization of Select Medical Corp., an operator of long-term and acute-care hospitals, and divestiture of hospitals by Tenet Healthcare Corporation helped to increase the number of hospitals affected. (2) In 2006, the privatization of Hospital Corporation of America, Inc. affected 176 acute-care hospitals. The acquisition was the largest health care transaction ever announced. (3) In 2013, consolidation of several investor-owned systems resulted in large number of hospitals involved in acquisition activity.

Regulatory compliance In 2017, organizations of all sizes will need to continue navigating and complying with a highly complex, changing set of global, regional, country, and industry-specific laws and directives

Regulatory focus areas for 2017

Clinical quality and safety

Cyber security

Counterfeit drugs

Health care stakeholder’s consideration

Multi-pronged, collaborative and technology enabled approach

Corruption

Breaking through constraints of traditional care delivery model

Cost containment to achieve operational efficiency

Cyber security as main focus area

Health care stakeholders More sophisticated risk-monitoring techniques

Digital health care and analytics

Taking a standardized, consistent approach to compliance planning, execution and monitoring

To learn more about the trends, challenges, and issues impacting the global health care sector, please visit www.deloitte.com/healthcareoutlook for more information. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a more detailed description of DTTL and its member firms. Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries and territories, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering the insights they need to address their most complex business challenges. Deloitte’s more than 200,000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence. © 2017. For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.