2017 State of the Economy Presentation - City of St. Petersburg

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Jacksonville. Tampa. Ft. Worth ..... First Central, City Center, & Morgan Stanley Tower. Source: CoStar .... GREENHO
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POPULATION

POPULATION GROWTH St. Petersburg & Pinellas County 3.50% 3.00%

2.50% 2.00%

Population Growth Rate

1.50%

1.00%

St. Petersburg

0.50%

Pinellas County

0.00%

2010

2014

2015

2016

2017

-0.50% -1.00%

2010-2017 Growth Pinellas County: 5.0% - 45,461 St. Petersburg: 7.8% - 18,999

-1.50% -2.00%

Source: BEBR - 2014-2017; US Census 2010

POPULATION GROWTH BY MUNICIPALITY Pinellas County: 2010-2017

14.2%

St. Petersburg 41.8%

13.2%

Clearwater Largo Pinellas Park

Unincorporated Other

8.0%

9.5% 13.3%

Source: BEBR, 2011-2017; US Census 2010

5-YEAR POPULATION GROWTH 2012-2016 Orlando Miami Durham Ft. Worth Tampa Jacksonville Tampa-St. Pete MSA St. Petersburg St. Paul 0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Source: BEBR; American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

FOREIGN BORN POPULATION St. Petersburg 30,000

25,000

20,000

Northern America Latin America Oceania

15,000

Africa Asia Europe

10,000

5,000

-

2009

2011

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

NET MIGRATION 2015-2016 2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% Florida

MSA % Net Migration - Domestic

Pinellas County

Hillsborough County

% Net Migration - International Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

SOCIOECONOMICS

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates; US Census

ST. PETERSBURG AGE BREAKDOWN 2016

1970

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

75 years and over

75 years and over

65 to 74 years

65 to 74 years

60 to 64 years

60 to 64 years

55 to 59 years

55 to 59 years

50 to 54 years

50 to 54 years

45 to 49 years

45 to 49 years

40 to 44 years

40 to 44 years

35 to 39 years

35 to 39 years

30 to 34 years

30 to 34 years

25 to 29 years

25 to 29 years

20 to 24 years

20 to 24 years

15 to 19 years

15 to 19 years

10 to 14 years

10 to 14 years

5 to 9 years

5 to 9 years

Under 5 years

Under 5 years

0.0%

Male

Female

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0% Male

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Female

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates; US Census

ST. PETERSBURG AGE BREAKDOWN Ages 20-39 76,000

29%

74,000 28%

72,000 70,000

Population

68,000 66,000

26%

64,000 25%

62,000 60,000

Percent of Total Populatoin

27%

24%

58,000 56,000

23% 2012

2013

2014 Ages 20-39

% of Total Population

2015

2016 Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

PEER CITY AGE BREAKDOWN Ages 20-39 - Percent of Total Population Orlando Durham St. Paul Miami Tampa Ft. Worth

Jacksonville St. Petersburg Tampa-St. Pete MSA 0.0%

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

EDUCATION ATTAINMENT RATES 95.0%

High School

90.0%

85.0%

80.0%

75.0%

70.0%

65.0% St. Petersburg Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Jacksonville

Orlando

Tampa

Durham

St. Paul

Ft. Worth

Miami

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

EDUCATION ATTAINMENT RATES BA/BS+ Degree 60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0% Durham

St. Paul

Orlando

Tampa

St. Petersburg Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Jacksonville

Ft. Worth

Miami

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

EDUCATION ATTAINMENT RATES BA/BS+ Degree 25 - 34 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0%

10.0% 0.0% Durham

Orlando

Tampa

St. Paul

Miami

St. Petersburg

Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Ft. Worth

Jacksonville

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

EDUCATION ATTAINMENT RATES Graduate or Professional Degree 25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0% Durham

St. Paul

Tampa

Orlando

St. Petersburg

Miami

Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Ft. Worth

Jacksonville

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2016

Growth 2011-2016

Ft. Worth

St. Petersburg

St. Paul

Tampa

Durham

Miami

St. Petersburg

Durham

Jacksonville

Ft. Worth

Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Tampa

Orlando

Orlando

Jacksonville

Miami

St. Paul $0

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

0.00%

5.00%

10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

POVERTY RATE St. Petersburg Tampa-St. Pete MSA Jacksonville Durham Ft. Worth St. Paul Orlando Tampa Miami 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0% Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

POVERTY RATE CHANGE 2011-2016

Orlando Tampa Tampa-St. Pete MSA Jacksonville St. Paul

Miami Ft. Worth

Durham St. Petersburg -30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0% Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

AFRICAN AMERICAN POVERTY RATE CHANGE 2012-2016

Durham Orlando Ft. Worth

St. Paul Jacksonville Tampa Tampa-St. Pete MSA St. Petersburg Miami

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2010 – 2017 YTD 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0%

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2010

2011

2012 St. Petersburg

2013

2014

Tampa-St. Pete MSA

2015 Florida

US

2016

2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

REVENUEGENERATORS

TOTAL CONSTRUCTION VALUE & PERMITS ISSUED St. Petersburg $800,000,000

35,000

$700,000,000

30,000

$600,000,000 25,000

20,000 $400,000,000 15,000

Total Permits

Construction Value

$500,000,000

Construction Value Permits Issued

$300,000,000 10,000 $200,000,000

5,000

$100,000,000

$0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: City of St. Petersburg Development Services Division

Source: City of St. Petersburg Development Services Division

DOWNTOWN DWELLING UNITS 11000

10000

Permitted Under Construction

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: City of St. Petersburg Planning & Economic Development Department

REVISED PERMIT FEES COMPARISON 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Demolition

Reroof

AC Equal Changeout

Water heater changeout

St. Petersburg (prior Oct. 1, 2017)

Solar Pool Heating

St. Petersburg (adopted)

Photovoltaic Systems

Pinellas County

Residential Electric Service Change Source: Municode.com

LAND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

CODE CHANGES

$90

2006- 2017

24.0%

$80

23.5%

$70

23.0%

$60

22.5%

$50 22.0%

$40 21.5%

$30

21.0%

$20 $10

20.5%

$0

20.0% 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

St. Petersburg

2011

2012

Pinellas County

2013

2014

2015

St. Pete % of County Total

2016

2017 Source: Pinellas County Property Appraiser

Percent of Total Taxable Value

Billions

TAX VALUES IN PINELLAS COUNTY

TAXABLE VALUE GROWTH RATE 15.00%

10.00%

2007-2016 9.61% 8.69% 7.90%

5.00%

8.43%

8.30%

4.03%

Growth Rate

St. Petersburg

0.00%

Clearwater 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-1.25%

-5.00%

2014

2015

2016

2017

Pinellas County

-6.18% -6.48%

-10.00%

-15.00%

-12.41%

-10.26%

Source: Pinellas County Property Appraiser

SALES TAX COLLECTED PER 1,000 RESIDENTS Florida Counties $2,500,000

$2,000,000 2010 2011

$1,500,000

2012 2013 2014

$1,000,000

2015 2016 $500,000

$0 Pinellas County (7%)

Hillsborough County (7%)

Orange County (6.5%)

Duval County (7%)

Miami-Dade County (7%)

Source: Florida Department of Revenue; BEBR

Source: Pinellas County CVB Source: Pinellas CVB

Source: Pinellas County CVB Source: Pinellas CVB

REALESTATE

CITYWIDE CLASS A OFFICE SPACE 6,000,000

16.0%

14.0%

5,000,000 12.0%

4,000,000

3,000,000

8.0%

Vacancy Rate

Square Feet

10.0%

6.0%

2,000,000 4.0%

Total SF Citywide Vacancy

1,000,000 2.0%

-

0.0%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: CoStar

DOWNTOWN ST. PETERSBURG OFFICE SPACE 35.0%

3,500,000

35.0%

3,000,000

30.0%

3,000,000

30.0%

2,500,000

25.0%

2,500,000

25.0%

2,000,000

20.0%

2,000,000

20.0%

1,500,000

15.0%

1,500,000

15.0%

1,000,000

10.0%

1,000,000

10.0%

500,000

5.0%

-

0.0% 2013 Square Feet

2014

2015 Class A Vacancy

2016

2017

Total Vacancy

Square Feet

3,500,000

500,000

5.0%

-

0.0% 2013 Square Feet

2014

2015

Class B & C Vacancy

2016

2017 Total Vacancy

Source: CoStar

Vacancy Rate

CLASS B & C OFFICE SPACE

Vacancy Rate

Square Feet

CLASS A OFFICE SPACE

DOWNTOWN TENANT MIX 1986-2017 60.0%

50.0%

40.0% 1. "Other" includes professional services 2. Buildings used in analysis: Priatek Plaza, First Central, City Center, & Morgan Stanley Tower

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0% Financial

Legal

Creative 1986

Life Sciences 1996

2007

2017

Retail

Tech

Other Source: CoStar; St. Petersburg City Directories

GATEWAY OFFICE SPACE CLASS A

CLASS B & C 3,500,000

20.0% 18.0%

3,000,000

2,500,000

10.0%

1,500,000

8.0% 6.0%

1,000,000

Square Feet

12.0%

Vacancy Rate

Square Feet

16.0%

14.0%

2,000,000

18.0%

3,000,000

16.0% 2,500,000

20.0%

14.0% 12.0%

2,000,000

10.0% 1,500,000

8.0% 6.0%

1,000,000

4.0% 500,000 0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Vacancy Rate

3,500,000

4.0%

2.0%

500,000

0.0%

0

2017

2.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Gateway SF Gateway Vacancy

Source: CoStar

GROW SMARTER OPPORTUNITY SITES

TANGERINE

PLAZA

DEUCES UNDERPASS

LIGHTINGPROJECT

SKYWAY

MARINA DISTRICT

ST. PETERSBURG RETAIL SPACE 16,000,000

35.00%

14,000,000

30.00%

12,000,000

25.00%

Total Retail SF

10,000,000 20.00% 8,000,000 15.00% 6,000,000 10.00%

4,000,000

5.00%

2,000,000

-

2010

2011

Total SF

2012

Citywide Vacancy

2013

2014

Main Streets Vacancy

2015

2016

SMD Vacancy

2017

0.00% Source: CoStar

TOP 10 TAXPAYERS IN ST. PETERSBURG BY TOTAL TAX VALUE

TAX VALUE PER ACRE

Tyrone Square Mall

Cottonwood Bayview

Raymond James

AER Apartments

Beacon 430

Beacon 430

TGM Bay Isle

Bayfront Health

AER Apartments

Vinoy

Cottonwood Bayview

Tyrone Square Mall

Bayfront Health

Raymond James

Trellis at the Lakes

Franklin Templeton

Vinoy

TGM Bay Isle

Franklin Templeton

Trellis at the Lakes $-

$50,000,000

$100,000,000 $150,000,000

Commercial Residential

$-

$15,000,000

$30,000,000

$45,000,000

Source: Pinellas County Property Appraiser

HOME SALES PRICE $25,000

November 2016-2017

14.0% 12.0%

$20,000

$15,000 Home Value

8.0% 6.0%

$10,000

Percent Change

10.0%

4.0% $5,000 2.0% $-

0.0% Tampa-St. Pete MSA

St. Paul

St. Petersburg

Jacksonville Change $

Tampa

Ft. Worth

Durham

Orlando

Miami

Change %' Source: Redfin

Source: City of St. Petersburg Planning & Economic Development

Source: City of St. Petersburg Planning & Economic Development

REDUCTION IN VACANT AND BOARDED HOUSING 2013-2017: South St. Petersburg CRA 700 South St. Petersburg CRA

Citywide (ex. CRA)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 Source: City of St. Petersburg Planning & Economic Development

CHANGE IN TAXABLE PROPERTY VALUES 2007-2017: South St. Petersburg CRA $1,200 $1,000

In $ millions

$800 $600 $400 $200 $0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

South St. Petersburg CRA

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Pinellas County Property Appraiser

HOUSING + AFFORDABILITY

TROPICANA FIELD SITE

ST. PETERSBURG POLICE HQ

BUSINESSDEVELOPMENT

Source: City of St. Petersburg Business Tax Division

ST. PETERSBURG EMPLOYMENT 120000

3.0%

118000

2.5%

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

1.5%

114000

1.0% 112000 0.5% 110000

0.0%

108000

-0.5%

106000 104000

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE

2.0%

116000

-1.0% 2011

2012

2013

Total Employment

2014

2015

2016

2017

-1.5%

Employment Growth rate Source: City of St. Petersburg Planning & Economic Development

GROW SMARTER INDUSTRIES – EMPLOYMENT 14,000

2013-2017

120.0% 100.0%

12,000

80.0%

10,000

# of Jobs

8,000 40.0% 6,000

Percent Change

60.0%

20.0% 4,000

0.0%

2,000

-20.0%

0

-40.0% Marine & Life Sciences

Specialized Manufacturing

Financial Services 2013

2017

Data Analytics Change

Creative Arts & Design Source: City of St. Petersburg Planning & Economic Development

GROW

SMARTER

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY COMPARISON Hillsborough County

Miami-Dade County

Duval County

Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Pinellas County

Orange County

$44,000

$45,000

$46,000

$47,000

$48,000

$49,000

$50,000

$51,000

$52,000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

TOP OCCUPATIONAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS 3,000

Pinellas County, 2016-2024

20.0 18.0

2,500

16.0 14.0 12.0

1,500

10.0

Percent Increase

Employment Increase

2,000

8.0 1,000

6.0 4.0

500

2.0

0

0.0 Office & Adminstrative Support

Sales

Food Preparation & Serving Employment Increase

Healthcare Practitioners

Percent Change

Retail

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

GREENHOUSE PERFORMANCE DATA

Source: St. Petersburg Greenhouse

PATENTS PER 10,000 RESIDENTS 2016 Durham St. Paul Miami Orlando Tampa

St. Petersburg United States Ft. Worth Tampa Bay Florida Jacksonville 0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00 Source: US Patent Office; BEBR

Source: City of St. Petersburg Planning & Economic Development

TRANSPORTATION

TRANSPORTATION INITIATIVES Ongoing Projects

Source: City of St. Petersburg Transportation Department

ACCESSIBILITY WALK SCORE

DOWNTOWN WALK SCORE

Miami

St. Paul

St. Paul

Orlando

Tampa

Miami

Tampa-St. Pete MSA St. Petersburg St. Petersburg Durham Orlando Tampa

Ft. Worth Durham

Ft. Worth

Jacksonville

Jacksonville 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: WalkScore

ACCESSIBILITY BIKE SCORE

TRANSIT SCORE

St. Paul

Miami

Miami

St. Paul

St. Petersburg

St. Petersburg

Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Orlando

Tampa

Tampa-St. Pete MSA

Orlando

Tampa

Ft. Worth

Durham

Durham

Ft. Worth

Jacksonville

Jacksonville 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Source: WalkScore

AVERAGE COMMUTE TIME Tampa Durham St. Petersburg St. Paul Jacksonville Orlando Tampa-St. Pete MSA Ft. Worth

Miami

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

QUALITYOFLIFE

SUSTAINABILITY INITIAITVES

COST OF LIVING INDEX Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Beach Miami-Miami Beach Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN US AVERAGE

Fort Worth - Arlington TX

2017

Vero Beach-Sebastian

2016 2015

Orlando-Kissimmee Jacksonville Daytona Beach-Deltona Tampa-St. Petersburg Durham-Chapel Hill NC

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0 Source: C2ER, 2017

PIER

DISTRICT

PIER DISTRICT UPDATE

NEW

MUSEUMS

James Museum of Western Wildlife Art Opening 2018

Museum of the American Arts & Crafts Movement Anticipated Completion Fall 2019

Imagine Museum Grand Opening January 23rd, 2018

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT

DAVE GOODWIN EXCELLENCE INDEVELOPMENT AWARD

MAYOR KRISEMAN’S

LOOK FORWARD