A Risk Index for Megacities

Sep 5, 2006 - Stephen Voss (Munich Re Japan Services K.K.). 05 September .... some examples: Earthquake in San Francisco (1906), heat wave during.
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A Risk Index for Megacities

Stephen Voss (Munich Re Japan Services K.K.)

05 September 2006 at the Institute of Actuaries Japan (IAJ)

Contents

Introduction - Trend of growing cities

3

Characteristics of megacities

8

The special risk situation of megacities

13

The Munich Re risk index for megacities

18

2

Introduction – Trend of growing cities

1950

2000

2050

Population worldwide 2bn

6bn

9bn

Urban population 30%

50%

60%

80

400

?

Cities >1 million inhabitants

A Risk Index for Megacities, S. Voss (05 September 2006, at IAJ)

3

Introduction – Trend of growing cities, cont’d

Megacities 1950 Tokyo

London New York Rhine-Ruhr Moscow

Shanghai

Paris

Buenos Aires

Source: U.N. Population Division 4

Introduction – Trend of growing cities, cont’d

Megacities 2015

Tokyo Mumbai

Dhaka

Delhi Kolkata Karachi New York

Mexico City

Istanbul Paris London

Sao Paulo

Los Angeles

Beijing Tianjin

Moscow Cairo Lahore

Rhine-Ruhr

Seoul Osaka Jakarta Shanghai

Kabul Baghdad

Chicago

Tehran Jeddah Toronto

Lima

Ho Chi Minh City Surat

Yangon Bangkok

Bandung

Rio de Janeiro Abidjan

Lagos Luanda

Guatemala City

Belo Horizonte

Bogotá

Buenos Aires Santiago

Source: U.N. Population Division 5

Introduction – Trend of growing cities, cont’d

Summary: Whereas in 1950 ten of the 15 most populous cities were in industrial countries, today’s picture is clearly dominated by cities in emerging and developing countries…

Source: United Nations, 2004

A Risk Index for Megacities, S. Voss (05 September 2006, at IAJ)

6

Contents

Introduction - Trend of growing cities

3

Characteristics of megacities

8

The special risk situation of megacities

13

The Munich Re risk index for megacities

18

7

Characteristics of megacities

Common features of megacities: ƒ High concentration of - people - values - infrastructure ƒ High interconnectivity within region / country / continent / world - close interdependence between flow of goods, finance and information - global cities are gateways (interaction between regional markets and global flow of information / goods)

Î Global impact of megacities A Risk Index for Megacities, S. Voss (05 September 2006, at IAJ)

8

Example 1: Greater Tokyo – A megacity

Tokyo today:

- A gigantic concentration of values and people - Very high density of buildings - Worldwide interconnection in trade and business

Picture of modern Tokyo

A Risk Index for Megacities, S. Voss (05 September 2006, at IAJ)

9

Example 1: Greater Tokyo – A megaRISK

Tokyo 1923:

- 143,000 victims

Picture of Tokyo 1923

(incl. missing persons) - 2.8 bn USD economic loss

A Risk Index for Megacities, S. Voss (05 September 2006, at IAJ)

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Example 2: Los Angeles

Development of the City of Los Angeles from 1900 to 2000

Erdbebengefährdung: hoch 2000

sehr hoch

1950 1900 Earthquake risk high very high

A Risk Index for Megacities, S. Voss (