African Development Bank

Jun 6, 2011 - in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching ... The Outlook theme chapter looks at “Africa and its Emerging Partners”. ... Africa's prosperity, create opportunities for the people in Africa and build a key ...
6MB Sizes 4 Downloads 437 Views
Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Rep. Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Egypt Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda São Tomé and Príncipe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP

African Economic Outlook 2011

SPECIAL THEME:

Africa and its Emerging Partners

RGO A B M E R E D N U Y on COP T S E W 0AM 1 l i t 11 un 0 2 une 6J onday M

African Economic Outlook 2011

DEVELOPMENT CENTRE DE DÉVELOPPEMENT CENTRE

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

Economic Commission for Africa

The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the African Development Bank; the OECD, its Development Centre or the governments of their member countries; the United Nations Development Programme; the UN Economic Commission for Africa; the European Union; or those of the Secretariat of the African Caribbean and Pacific Group of States or its member states.

ISBN 978-92-64-11175-2 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-11178-3 (PDF)

© African Development Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2011). You can copy, download or print the content of this publication for your own use, and you can include excerpts from it in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of AfDB, OECD, UNDP, UNECA as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected] Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) [email protected]

2

Foreword 7KLVLVWKHWHQWKHGLWLRQRIWKH$IULFDQ(FRQRPLF2XWORRN $(2 ZKLFKRYHUWKHSDVWGHFDGHKDV EHFRPH WKH OHDGLQJ DQQXDO UHYLHZ RI WKH VWDWH RI WKH $IULFDQ HFRQRP\ :KHQ WKH ¿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ÀRZVRIIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW )',  %XWVRIDUDERXWWKUHHTXDUWHUVRI$IULFDV)',LQÀRZVDUHLQYHVWHGLQRLOH[SRUWLQJFRXQWULHVZKLOHRLO LPSRUWLQJFRXQWULHVDUHEHQH¿WWLQJUHODWLYHO\OLWWOH&RXQWUL