Africa's changing infrastructure landscape Africa Construction Trends ...

Africa’s changing infrastructure landscape Africa Construction Trends Report 2016

Africa Construction Trends Report | Contents

Contents

Preface

3

African Construction in Focus

4

The Changing Realities Facing Africa

12

([WHUQDOIDFWRUVD΍HFWLQJ$IULFDȇV JURZWKDQGΖ &3RXWORRN

ΖQWHUQDOIDFWRUVD΍HFWLQJ$IULFDȇV JURZWKDQGΖ &3RXWORRN

Regional Construction in Focus

19

East Africa

19

6RXWKHUQ$IULFD

Central Africa

28

:HVW$IULFD

1RUWK$IULFD

Drying Up? A Focus on Africa’s Water Projects

41

References

48

Methodology

50

Industry Contacts & Research Team

52

01

Durban, South Africa

02

Africa Construction Trends Report | Preface

3UHIDFH 7KLVHGLWLRQRI'HORLWWHȇV$IULFD&RQVWUXFWLRQ7UHQGV 5HSRUWFXPXODWHVDQGFRPSDUHVGDWDIURPWKHODVW IRXU\HDUVGHOLYHULQJLQVLJKWVRQERWKDFRQWLQHQWDO DQGUHJLRQDObOHYHO 7KHUHSRUWDOVRH[DPLQHVWKHGULYLQJIRUFHVEHKLQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGFDSLWDOSURMHFWVbRQWKH FRQWLQHQWORRNLQJDWERWKH[WHUQDODQGLQWHUQDOGULYHUVWKDWDUHVKDSLQJWKHQHZbPDFURHFRQRPLFDQG ȴQDQFLDOUHDOLWLHVWKDWDQXPEHURIFRXQWULHVDUHIDFLQJ7KHGDWDbZLWKLQWKLVDQQXDOUHVHDUFKE\WKHȴUP SLQSRLQWVWKHWUHQGVDURXQGRZQHUVKLSIXQGLQJbDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQRIODUJHVFDOHSURMHFWVZKLOHDOVR LGHQWLI\LQJWKHWUHQGVLQWKHVHFWRUDObVSUHDGRISURMHFWV $IULFDKDVVHHQDGRZQWXUQLQERWKWKHQXPEHUDQGYDOXHRISURMHFWVLQFOXGHGWKLV\HDULQ FRQWUDVWWRSUHYLRXV\HDUV*OREDOHFRQRPLFKHDGZLQGVORZJURZWKDQGORZHUFRPPRGLW\ SULFHVKDYHDOOFRQWULEXWHGWRWKLV 7KHȆ$IULFDULVLQJȇVWRU\KDVEHHQXQGHUSUHVVXUHDQGWKHUHVXOWLVDQXQHYHQIRFXVRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQGFDSLWDOSURMHFWGHYHORSPHQW7KHEHQHȴWVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWDUHZHOONQRZQDQG XQSDFNHGIXUWKHULQWKLVUHSRUWZLWKDQDQDO\VLVRIJURVVȴ[HGFDSLWDOIRUPDWLRQ+RZHYHUPDQ\ JRYHUQPHQWVDQGWKHORZQXPEHURISURMHFWVKLJKOLJKWHGWKDWWKHSULYDWHVHFWRULVVWUXJJOLQJWR PDLQWDLQWKHLUVSHQGLQJRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGFDSLWDOSURMHFWV1HZSUHVVXUHRUIDFWRUVVXFKDV GURXJKWVHFXULW\FRQFHUQVDQGUDSLGXUEDQLVDWLRQFRXSOHGZLWKIDOOLQJJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXHVLVPDNLQJ LWGLɝFXOWWRPDLQWDLQWKHVSHQGLQJLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHUHTXLUHGE\PDQ\FRXQWULHV ΖQNHHSLQJZLWKRXUWUHQGRIIRFXVLQJRQDQLVVXHZKLFKZHEHOLHYHLVLPSRUWDQWWKLV\HDUȇVUHSRUW ORRNVDWWKHZDWHUVHFWRU:DWHUSOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWUROHZKLFKFXWVDFURVVDQXPEHURIVHFWRUVLQ DQHFRQRP\$QH[DPSOHRIWKLVLVWKHZDWHUIRRGHQHUJ\QH[XVEULHȵ\DGGUHVVHGLQWKLVUHSRUW :HbIHHOWKLVLVHVSHFLDOO\UHOHYDQWDVWKHQHHGIRULQYHVWPHQWLQWKLVVHFWRULVIDURXWVWULSSLQJWKHDFWXDO LQYHVWPHQWLQWKLVVHFWRUDQGLVDJURZLQJFDXVHIRUFRQFHUQLQWKHOLJKWRIWKHJURZWKRIPHJDFLWLHVLQ WKHFRQWLQHQWDQGWKHSROLWLFDODQGVRFLDOSUHVVXUHWKDWWKLVZLOOSRWHQWLDOO\SODFHRQJRYHUQPHQWV 'HORLWWHWHDPVKDYHDGYLVHGRQPDQ\RIWKHZRUOGȇVODUJHVWDQGPRVWFRPSOH[LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQGFDSLWDOSURMHFWV2XUWHDPVDGYLVHFOLHQWVDFURVVWKHOLIHF\FOHRIDQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHbDVVHWDQGRWKHU ODUJHFDSLWDOSURMHFWVVRLQYHVWRUVSURMHFWGHYHORSHUVVSRQVRUVDQGRSHUDWRUVLQERWKWKHSXEOLF DQGSULYDWHVHFWRUVFDQWDNHHYHU\VWHSZLWKbFRQȴGHQFH7KHXQSUHFHGHQWHGPDJQLWXGHRIFXUUHQW $IULFDQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHGHYHORSPHQWbSODQVDQGSULYDWHVHFWRUJURZWKLQLWLDWLYHVUHTXLUHVLJQLȴFDQW FDSLWDOPDQDJHPHQWVNLOOV:LWKDSUHVHQFHLQFRXQWULHVDQGVHUYLFHWRFRXQWULHV'HORLWWHLVZHOO SRVLWLRQHGDQGbXQGHUVWDQGVWKHQXDQFHVRIGRLQJEXVLQHVVLQ$IULFD2XUSDQ$IULFDQLQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQGbFDSLWDOSURMHFWVΖ &3 WHDPIXQFWLRQVDVDQLQWHJUDWHGWHDPZLWKGHGLFDWHGSURIHVVLRQDOVEDVHG LQ6RXWK$IULFD=LPEDEZH.HQ\D7DQ]DQLD8JDQGD*KDQD&¶WHGȇΖYRLUH)UDQFHWKHb8QLWHG$UDE (PLUDWHVDQG1LJHULDVHUYLQJJRYHUQPHQWVDQGSULYDWHVHFWRUFOLHQWVDFURVVbWKHFRQWLQHQW $VDWHDPZHZHOFRPH\RXUWKRXJKWVDQGFRQVLGHUDWLRQVRQWKLVDQGIXWXUHbUHSRUWVRIWKLVQDWXUH JP Labuschagne Deloitte Africa Infrastructure & Capital Projects Leader

03

Africa Construction Trends Report |African Construction in Focus

African Construction LQ)RFXV 1RUWK$IULFDVDZDVLJQLȴFDQWMXPSLQWKHQXPEHURISURMHFWV 7KHQXPEHURISURMHFWVLQ1RUWK$IULFDLQFUHDVHGE\ZKLOH WKHYDOXHRISURMHFWVLQFUHDVHGE\VLJQLI\LQJDQLQFUHDVHRI FRQȴGHQFHLQWKHUHJLRQDVPXFKRIWKHWXUPRLOIROORZLQJWKH$UDE 6SULQJLQKDVFDOPHGGRZQDQGWKHSROLWLFDOVLWXDWLRQLQD QXPEHURIFRXQWULHVOLNH(J\SWDQG$OJHULDKDVVWDELOLVHG

The 2016 edition of our Africa Construction Trends Report includes 286 construction projects in Africa that had broken ground by 1 June 2016 and are valued at US$50m or above. &ROOHFWLYHO\WKHVHSURMHFWVDUHZRUWK86EQ7KHQXPEHURI SURMHFWVTXDOLI\LQJIRULQFOXVLRQIHOOE\\HDURQ\HDUZKLOHWKH YDOXHRILQFOXGHGSURMHFWVGHFUHDVHGE\GXHLQODUJHSDUW WRWKHKHDGZLQGVWKDWFRXQWULHVDUHH[SHULHQFLQJRQDFFRXQWRI DZHDNJOREDOPDFURHFRQRPLFHQYLURQPHQWDQGORZFRPPRGLW\ SULFHVDFURVVWKHERDUG

7KHQXPEHUDQGYDOXHRISURMHFWVLQ(DVWDQG6RXWKHUQ$IULFD GHFUHDVHG$OWKRXJKWKHQXPEHURISURMHFWVLQ:HVW$IULFD LQFUHDVHGWKHYDOXHRISURMHFWVRQO\LQFUHDVHGPDUJLQDOO\7KH YDOXHRISURMHFWVLQ&HQWUDO$IULFDGHFUHDVHGE\GXHWRWKH VXVSHQVLRQRIWKHWZRODUJHVWSURMHFWVLQWKHUHJLRQWKH0EDODP 1DGHEDΖURQ2UH3URMHFWLQ&DPHURRQDQGWKH=DQDJDΖURQ2UH 3URMHFWLQWKH5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR

$VDUHJLRQ:HVW$IULFDKDGWKHPRVWQXPEHURISURMHFWVZLWK SURMHFWVDQGDOVRWKHPRVWLQWHUPVRIYDOXHDW86EQ +RZHYHU6RXWK$IULFDZDVWKHVLQJOHFRXQWU\ZLWKWKHODUJHVW QXPEHURISURMHFWV IROORZHGE\1LJHULD

375

Continental statistics

326

322 223

2013

2014

04

324

286

257

Number of projects

6RXUFH'HORLWWHDQDO\VLV

301

2015

Value (US$bn)

2016


North Africa

2013

2014

2015

2016

2016% of continental projects

East Africa

Number of projects

22

8

29

Number of projects

Value (US$bn)

Value (US$bn)

2013

2014

2015

2016


61

North Africa

West Africa East Africa Central Africa

West Africa

Number of projects Value (US$bn)

Central Africa


2013

2014

2015

2016


66

66

92

Southern Africa 2013

2014

2015

2016


Southern Africa

Number of projects


Value (US$bn)

2013

2014

2015

2016


119

109

05


6LPLODUWRODVW\HDUWKHJUHDWHVWQXPEHURISURMHFWVIDOOLQWR WKH7UDQVSRUWVHFWRU IROORZHGE\5HDO(VWDWH (QHUJ\b b3RZHU DQG6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV 1RWVXUSULVLQJO\ WKHVKDUHRI0LQLQJSURMHFWVPRUHWKDQKDOYHGWRZKLOH 2LOb b*DVGHFUHDVHGWR

:RUU\LQJO\WKHUHUHPDLQVYHU\OLWWOHODUJHVFDOHLQYHVWPHQWLQWKH :DWHUVHFWRURIWRWDOLQYHVWPHQW DQGHYHQOHVVLQ+HDOWKFDUH (GXFDWLRQ DQG6RFLDO'HYHORSPHQW

'HVSLWHWKHVKDUHRISURMHFWVGHFUHDVLQJ2LO *DVUHPDLQV DYDOXDEOHVHFWRUDFFRXQWLQJIRUPRUHWKDQDTXDUWHURIWRWDO SURMHFWbYDOXH

Projects by sector

Share of projects by number (%)

Value of projects (US$bn)

Share of projects by value (%)

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

60

21.0%

18.4%

Transport

96

33.6%

19.4%

Real Estate

22.4%

16.4%

Water

11

3.8%

1.3%

0LQLQJ

8

2.8%

8.1%

2LO *DV

4.5%

26.1%

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

8.4%

9.7%

6RFLDO'HYHORSPHQW

2

0.7%

0.1%

+HDOWKFDUH

6

2.1%

0.3%

Education

2

0.7%

0.1%


06

Number of projects


Share of projects by sector

2013%

2014%

2015%

2016%

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

28

21

Transport

18

Real Estate

6

6

22

Water

9

8

0LQLQJ

19

9

2LO *DV

1

6

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

8

6RFLDO'HYHORSPHQW

1

707

1

1

+HDOWKFDUH

2

1

1

2

Education

1

1

1

1

$JULFXOWXUH

1

1

0L[HG8VH

1

1

1

6RXUFH'HORLWWHDQDO\VLV May not total to 100% due to rounding.

Algiers, Algeria

07


Projects by sector (QHUJ\ 3RZHU

21.0%

Transport

33.6%

Real Estate

22.4%

Water

3.8%

0LQLQJ

2.8%

2LO *DV

4.5%

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

8.4%

6RFLDO'HYHORSPHQW

0.7%

+HDOWKFDUH

2.1%

Education

0.7%


Who owns? *RYHUQPHQW

73.1%

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

11.5%

UK

8.

2.1%

ZA

6RXWK$IULFD

1.7%

US

86

1.7%

CN

&KLQD

1.4%

FR

)UDQFH

1.4%

NG

1LJHULD

1.0%

UAE

8$(

1,0%

2WKHU2

4.9%

G

O

6RXUFH'HORLWWHDQDO\VLV 7KLVLVODUJHO\GXHWRDGHȴQLWLRQDOFKDQJHLQWKHUHSRUWPHWKRGRORJ\ΖQSUHYLRXVHGLWLRQVH[SRUW FUHGLWDJHQFLHVZHUHLQFOXGHGDVΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖV+RZHYHUWKLV\HDULWZDVGHFLGHGWKDWH[SRUWFUHGLW DJHQFLHVOLNH&KLQD([SRUWΖPSRUW([LP %DQNVKRXOGUDWKHUEHFODVVHGDVWKHFRXQWU\ZKHUHWKH\DUH GRPLFLOHGLQWKLVFDVH&KLQD 2WKHULQFOXGHV$XVWUDOLDΖQGLDΖWDO\%UD]LO*HUPDQ\ΖUHODQG/HEDQRQ6LQJDSRUHDQG6ZLW]HUODQG 08

*RYHUQPHQWVFRQWLQXHWRRZQWKHODUJHVW VKDUHRISURMHFWVZLWKSURMHFWV IROORZHGE\3ULYDWH'RPHVWLFFRPSDQLHV SURMHFWV DQGWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRP SURMHFWV )XQGLQJDQGRZQHUVKLSLVGHȴQHGDVWKH FRXQWU\ZKHUHWKHȴQDQFLHURURZQHURIWKH SURMHFWLVGRPLFLOHGΖQOLQHZLWKRZQHUVKLS *RYHUQPHQWVDUHLQFUHDVLQJWKHLUIXQGLQJ RISURMHFWVIXQGLQJDWRWDORISURMHFWV LQWKHSHULRGXQGHUUHYLHZ 3ULYDWH'RPHVWLFȴUPVIXQGSURMHFWV DQGLQWHUQDWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW)LQDQFH ΖQVWLWXWLRQV')ΖV IXQGSURMHFWV IROORZHGE\&KLQDZLWKSURMHFWVDQG $IULFDQ')ΖVZLWKSURMHFWV 7KHVKDUHRIWRWDOSURMHFWVWKDWDUH EHLQJIXQGHGE\ΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖVKDV GHFUHDVHGZKLOHWKHVKDUHRIIXQGLQJ SURYLGHGE\&KLQDKDVLQFUHDVHG1 3ULYDWH'RPHVWLFFRPSDQLHVDUH FRQVWUXFWLQJSURMHFWVZKLOH&KLQHVH FRPSDQLHVDUHEXV\ZLWKSURMHFWV ΖWDOLDQȴUPVDUHEXLOGLQJSURMHFWVDQG )UHQFKFRPSDQLHVZKLOH3RUWXJXHVH DQG6RXWK$IULFDQȴUPVHDFKDUH EXLOGLQJb


Who funds? *RYHUQPHQW

28.3%

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

14.0%

I

ΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖV

13.6%

&KLQD

12.6%

A

$IULFDQ')ΖV

9.8%

ZA

6RXWK$IULFD

2.8%

UK

8.

2.8%

FR

)UDQFH

2.4%

US

86

2.4%

BR

%UD]LO

1.4%

NG

1LJHULD

1.4%

SUI

6ZLW]HUODQG

1.4%

2WKHU

7.0%

G

CN

O

2WKHULQFOXGHVΖQGLDΖWDO\WKH8$($XVWUDOLD *HUPDQ\ΖUHODQGΖVUDHO.XZDLW/HEDQRQ 1DPLELD3RUWXJDO4DWDUDQG7XUNH\


Nairobi, Kenya

09


Who builds? PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

26.6%

CN

&KLQD

22.4%

IT

ΖWDO\

6.3%

FR

)UDQFH

4.9%

PT

3RUWXJDO

3.5%

ZA

6RXWK$IULFD

3.5%

UK

8.

3.1%

US

86

2.8%

BR

%UD]LO

2.4%

TR

7XUNH\

2.1%

JP

Japan

1.7%

KR

6RXWK.RUHD

1.7%

IN

ΖQGLD

1.4%

O

2WKHU

17.5%


10

2WKHULQFOXGHV1HWKHUODQGV6SDLQ6ZLW]HUODQG %HOJLXP*KDQD6DXGL$UDELD6LQJDSRUH WKHb8$(=DPELD$XVWUDOLD&DQDGD&¶WHGȇΖYRLUH )LQODQG*HUPDQ\*XLQHDΖUHODQGΖVUDHO /HEDQRQ0DOD\VLD0RURFFRDQG7XQLVLD

Oran, Algeria Proposal title goes here | Section title goes here

11

11

Africa Construction Trends Report _7KH&KDQJLQJ5HDOLWLHV)DFLQJ$IULFDΖPSOLFDWLRQVIRUΖQIUDVWUXFWXUH b&DSLWDOb3URMHFWV

7KH&KDQJLQJ5HDOLWLHV )DFLQJ$IULFDΖPSOLFDWLRQV IRUΖQIUDVWUXFWXUH b&DSLWDOb3URMHFWV In October 2016 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global growth forecast downward (relative to April 2016 forecasts) for 2016 and 2017, to 3.1% and 3.4% respectively. The growth outlook in developed markets remains pedestrian. GDP growth in the majority RIHPHUJLQJbPDUNHWVWRRKDVGURSSHGGUDPDWLFDOO\RYHU the past two years. Africa’s growth momentum has DOVRbOHVVHQHG2IVXE6DKDUDQ$IULFDȇVELJIRXUHFRQRPLHV – Nigeria, South Africa, Angola and Kenya – one is rapidly contracting (Nigeria) while two are static (Angola and 6RXWKb$IULFD ΖWLVRQO\.HQ\DZKLFKLVEXFNLQJWKLV trend and growing at a decent emerging market rate RIbFORVHbWRb 8QFHUWDLQJOREDOPDFURHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVDQGGRPHVWLF FKDOOHQJHVKDYHOHGWRORZHUJURZWKSURMHFWLRQVIRUVXE6DKDUDQ $IULFD66$ DVDZKROH*URZWKLQ66$IHOOWRLQ VLJQLȴFDQWO\EHORZWKHDYHUDJHH[SHULHQFHGE\WKHUHJLRQ RYHUWKHODVWGHFDGH66$ȇVJURZWKIRUHFDVWLVHYHQORZHUDW RQO\WKHȴUVWWLPHWKDWWKHUHJLRQȇVJURZWKKDVEHHQORZHU WKDQWKHZRUOGDYHUDJHVLQFH1RUWK$IULFDLVH[SHFWHGWR FRQWUDFWE\LQGXHWRFRQWUDFWLRQVLQHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\ LQ6RXWK6XGDQDQG/LE\D+RZHYHUWKHDYHUDJHRXWORRN LVPRUHSRVLWLYH/LE\DLVH[SHFWHGWRUHWXUQWRSRVLWLYHJURZWKDQG 1RUWK$IULFDȇVDYHUDJHZLOOUHDFK66$LVH[SHFWHGWRDYHUDJH RYHUWKHSHULRGJLYHQDQH[SHFWHGUHFRYHU\LQ /HDGLQJWKHUHJLRQDOJURZWKSDFNLV(DVW$IULFD ΖQYHVWPHQWLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGFDSLWDOSURMHFWVΖ &3 LVDQ LPSRUWDQWDVSHFWIRUHQDEOLQJ*'3JURZWKPRUHGLYHUVLȴHG HFRQRPLFDQGSULYDWHVHFWRUDFWLYLW\DQGSURYLGLQJWKHSODWIRUP IRUVXFKJURZWKWREHVXVWDLQDEOHDQGLQFOXVLYH7KLVLVGRQHE\ SURYLGLQJDFFHVVWRSRSXODWLRQVIRUEDVLFVHUYLFHVVXFKDVZDWHU HGXFDWLRQDQGKHDOWKFDUHΖQYHVWPHQWLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDOVRWHQGV WRLQFUHDVHEXVLQHVVFRQȴGHQFHDQGDWWKHVDPHWLPHORZHUV WUDQVDFWLRQFRVWVE\PDNLQJLWHDVLHUIRUEXVLQHVVHVWRPRYH SHRSOHJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVΖQIUDVWUXFWXUHDOVRVHUYHVWRIRVWHU FRPSHWLWLRQLQQRYDWLRQDQGSURGXFWLYLW\*RYHUQPHQWVWKDWLQYHVW LQHQDEOLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDUHWKHUHIRUHVHHQDVPRUHSURDFWLYH DQGRIWHQPRUHLQYHVWPHQWIULHQGO\

12

5HJLRQDODYHUDJHUHDO*'3JURZWKRXWORRNII

North Africa

West Africa

1.6%

Central Africa

4.5% 4.9% 2.3%

East Africa

2.7%

Southern Africa

6RXUFHΖ0)


*URVVȴ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ȇV *)&)LQFUHDVHGLQWKH\HDUVSULRUWRLWVKRVWLQJRIWKH)Ζ)$ 6RFFHU:RUOG&XS$OWKRXJKPXFKRIWKLVZDVIXQQHOOHGLQWR LPSURYLQJWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDVLJQLȴFDQWVKDUHZDVVSHQW RQVSRUWVVWDGLXPVZKHUHWKHUHWXUQERWKHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDO RQLQYHVWPHQWRIWKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHKDVEHHQORZ ΖQWKH66$DYHUDJHIRU*)&)ZDVZKLOHWKHDYHUDJH IRU1RUWK$IULFDLQWKHODWHVW\HDUIRUZKLFKGDWDLVDYDLODEOH IROORZHGFORVHO\EHKLQGDW&HQWUDO$IULFDKDVWKHKLJKHVW UHJLRQDODYHUDJHRI*)&)VSHQGEXWDVPDQ\HFRQRPLHVLQWKH

$QXPEHURIERWKH[WHUQDODQGLQWHUQDOIDFWRUVDUHGULYLQJWKHVH FKDQJLQJUHDOLWLHVDQGLQWXUQDUHD΍HFWLQJ$IULFDQLQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQGFDSLWDOSURMHFWVΖ &3 GHYHORSPHQWV

GFCF by region

GFCF as % of GDP

GFCF as % of GDP

GFCF of key countries for each region

UHJLRQDUHVPDOODQHZURDGZLOOUHSUHVHQWDKLJK*)&)VSHQGDVD VKDUHRI*'3(DVW$IULFDȇVDYHUDJH*)&)VSHQGUHODWLYHWR*'3KDV FRQVLVWHQWO\EHHQRYHUVLQFHLQGLFDWLQJWKHLPSRUWDQFH RILQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQWKHUHJLRQ(WKLRSLDVWDQGVRXWIRULWVFRQVLVWHQW *)&)VSHQGDQGKDVRQHRIWKHKLJKHVW*)&)UDWLRVJOREDOO\ΖQ WKHODVWGHFDGHRQDYHUDJH(WKLRSLDKDVVSHQWWKHHTXLYDOHQWRI RILWV*'3RQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHΖQFRQWUDVW6RXWK$IULFDDQG 1LJHULDWKHFRQWLQHQWȇVWZRODUJHVWHFRQRPLHVKDYHFRQVLVWHQWO\ XQGHUVSHQWRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVSHQGLQJRQDYHUDJHWKHHTXLYDOHQW RIDQGRI*'3UHVSHFWLYHO\%H\RQGVRPHUHJLRQV XQGHUVSHQGLQJDVDVKDUHRI*'3WKHDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHRI*)&) KDVEHHQVORZLQJLQ66$IURPLQWRLQDQG UHDFKLQJRQO\JURZWKLQ

20

20 10

10 2010

2011

(WKLRSLD .HQ\D $QJROD SA $OJHULD

2012

2013

2014

(J\SW *KDQD 1LJHULD Cameroon '5&

2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(DVW$IULFD$YHUDJH 6RXWKHUQ$IULFD$YHUDJH 1RUWK$IULFD$YHUDJH :HVW$IULFD$YHUDJH &HQWUDO$IULFD$YHUDJH 6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD$YHUDJH

6RXUFH:RUOG%DQN

13


([WHUQDOIDFWRUVD΍HFWLQJ$IULFDȇV JURZWKDQGΖ &3RXWORRN

Lower commodity prices for longer detract activity from extractive and related infrastructure projects 2QHRIWKHELJJHVWFRQWULEXWRUVWRWKH VORZGRZQLQJURZWKZKLFKKDVWUDQVODWHG LQWRVORZLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVSHQGLQJLVWKH GHFOLQHLQFRPPRGLW\SULFHVRYHUWKHSDVW PRQWKVΖQZKDWFRXOGEHDUJXHGWREH DPRUHȆQRUPDOLVHGSULFHȇHQYLURQPHQW commodity prices are expected to remain ORZHUIRUORQJHUZLWKVRPHHVWLPDWLRQV WKDWDYHUDJHSULFHVZLOORQO\UHWXUQWRSUH OHYHOVbE\ $OWKRXJKKLJKȂVRPHDUJXHVXSHUȴFLDOO\ KLJKȂFRPPRGLW\SULFHVVXSSRUWHG $IULFDȇVVWURQJJURZWKVLQFHWKHV 1RZb$IULFDQHFRQRPLHVȇH[SRVXUHWR FRPPRGLW\SULFHGRZQVZLQJVKDVEHHQ GHWULPHQWDOWRWKHVHFRXQWULHVȇRYHUDOO PDFURHFRQRPLFODQGVFDSH7KHORZHU commodity price environment and RXWORRNKDVVHHQLQYHVWPHQWLQH[WUDFWLYH LQGXVWULHVGHFOLQHVKDUSO\LQWKHODVW PRQWKVIXUWKHUDGGLQJWRWKHFRQWLQHQWȇV UHYLVHGHFRQRPLFbRXWORRN 7KHFRPPRGLW\VOXPSDQGVXEVHTXHQW GHFOLQHLQUHYHQXHVKDVDOVROHGWRD UHGXFWLRQLQH[SORUDWLRQDFWLYLW\0LQLQJ exploration spend in Africa decreased IURP86EQLQWRRQO\86EQLQ /RZFRPPRGLW\SULFHVDOVRUHVXOWLQ DODFNRIDYDLODEOHȴQDQFLQJIRUH[WUDFWLYH SURMHFWV7KLVKDVHVSHFLDOO\D΍HFWHG MXQLRUPLQHUVZKRFDQQRWVXUYLYHZLWKRXW VXEVWDQWLDOIXQGLQJ

14

$VFRPSDQLHVKDYHGHOD\HGWKHLU LQYHVWPHQWVLQPLQHV$IULFDQJRYHUQPHQWV KDYHQRWUHFHLYHGWKHDVVRFLDWHGRIWHQ VLJQLȴFDQW WD[SD\PHQWVIURPWKHVH FRPSDQLHV6LPXOWDQHRXVLQYHVWPHQWLQ URDGVUDLOZD\VSRZHUDQGZDWHUȂDOOYLWDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUHFULWLFDOIRUWKHJURZWKRIWKH VHFWRUȂKDVDOVREHHQGHOD\HG $IULFDȇVODUJHVWPLQHDQGDVVRFLDWHG LQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQFOXGLQJDPRQJVWRWKHUV UDLODQGSRUWFRQVWUXFWLRQ WKH6LPDQGRX ΖURQ2UH3URMHFWLQ*XLQHDYDOXHGDW 86EQZDVSXWRQKROGLQ-XO\7KH SURMHFWLQFOXGHVWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKH PLQHDNPUDLOZD\DQGDGHHSZDWHU SRUW7KHb=DQDJD3URMHFWDSULYDWHO\RZQHG DQGIXQGHG86EQLURQRUHSURMHFWLQ WKH5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJRKDVDOVREHHQ VKHOYHGGXHWRORZLURQRUHbSULFHV

Oil exporting countries are DPRQJbZRUVWD΍HFWHG 2LOH[SRUWLQJHFRQRPLHVLQSDUWLFXODU KDYHFRPHXQGHUVXEVWDQWLDOVWUDLQ )ROORZLQJWKHRLOSULFHFROODSVHLQPLG DYHUDJHJURZWKIRURLOH[SRUWLQJ FRXQWULHVȂLQFOXGLQJWKHOLNHVRIVRPHRI WKHFRQWLQHQWȇVODUJHVWHFRQRPLHVVXFK DV1LJHULDDQG$QJRODȂLVH[SHFWHGWREH ȵDWLQOHVVWKDQKDOIRIZKDWLWZDV WKHSUHYLRXV\HDU2LOSULFHȵXFWXDWLRQV KDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRDQLQFRPHORVVRI DOPRVWRI*'3LQVRPHRIWKHVH HFRQRPLHV7KHORZHUFRQWULEXWLRQWRWD[ UHYHQXHVKDVKDGDGDPSHQLQJH΍HFW RQWKHȴVFXVZKLFKKDVUHVXOWHGLQOHVV PRQH\EHLQJDYDLODEOHWRLQYHVWLQFULWLFDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUHbSURMHFWV

'HSUHVVHGIRUH[UHYHQXHVIURPWKHORZHU RLOSULFHDVZHOODVVXSSO\VLGHFKDOOHQJHV LQFRXQWULHVOLNH1LJHULDKDYHDOVRSODFHG SUHVVXUHRQWKHSRWRISK\VLFDOIXQGV DYDLODEOHWRSD\IRULQIUDVWUXFWXUH7KLV WUHQGLVDOUHDG\YLVLEOHZLWKDQXPEHURI SURMHFWVSXWRQKROG6RQDQJRO$QJRODȇV RLOFRPSDQ\DQQRXQFHGLQ$XJXVW WKDWJLYHQ$QJRODȇVȆQHZHFRQRPLFUHDOLW\ȇ HVSHFLDOO\LQUHODWLRQWRWKHORZRLOSULFH FRQVWUXFWLRQDWWKH/RELWR5HȴQHU\ZRXOG EHVXVSHQGHG

+ Oil importing countries are not left unscathed and face other H[WHUQDObFKDOOHQJHV ΖQFRQWUDVWRLOLPSRUWHUVDUHW\SLFDOO\ VHHLQJEHWWHUHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVZLWK DYHUDJHJURZWKUDWHVRI&DPHURRQ &¶WHGȇΖYRLUH(WKLRSLD.HQ\D6HQHJDODQG 7DQ]DQLDKDYHVHHQVLJQLȴFDQWJURZWK GULYHQE\SULYDWHFRQVXPSWLRQDQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWV$OOVL[RIWKHVH FRXQWULHVDUHLQWKHWRSFRXQWULHVLQ $IULFDDFFRUGLQJWRWKHQXPEHURISURMHFWV UHFRUGHGLQWKLVUHSRUW7KH&HQWUDO$IULFDQ 5HSXEOLFLVDOVROLNHO\WRH[SHULHQFHDQ XSWLFNLQHFRQRPLFJURZWKGXHWRWKH VFDOLQJGRZQRIFRQȵLFW +RZHYHU6RXWK$IULFDDQG=DPELDȂ ERWKQRQHQHUJ\FRPPRGLW\H[SRUWHUVbȂ KDYHVHHQODFNOXVWUHJURZWKLQWKHODVW WZR\HDUVODUJHO\WKHUHVXOWRISRRUȴVFDO PDQDJHPHQWZKLOH*XLQHD/LEHULDDQG 6LHUUD/HRQHDUHVWLOOUHHOLQJIURPWKH (ERODbHSLGHPLF


/DUJHSDUWVRIVRXWKHUQDQGHDVWHUQ$IULFD KDYHEHHQFULSSOHGE\WKHVHYHUHGURXJKW EURXJKWDERXWE\WKH(O1L³RZHDWKHU SKHQRPHQRQ*URZWKLQ(WKLRSLD0DODZL DQG=LPEDEZHLQSDUWLFXODUKDVEHHQ VHYHUHO\D΍HFWHG7KHGURXJKWKDVSODFHG VXEVWDQWLDOSUHVVXUHRQWKHEXGJHWVDQG ȴQDQFLDOSRVLWLRQVRIWKHVHFRXQWULHV 7KHFRXQWULHVWKDWKDYHEHHQWKHZRUVW D΍HFWHGKDYHKDGWRUHVRUWWRLPSRUWLQJ IRRGDQGLQVRPHFDVHVHOHFWULFLW\ZKHUH ZDWHUOHYHOVKDYHEHHQWRRORZWRJHQHUDWH K\GURHOHFWULFSRZHU GLYHUWLQJIXQGVDZD\ IURPOHVVVWUDWHJLFFDSLWDOSURMHFWV

$

Countries need to manage the repricing of their economies ΖQDQXPEHURI$IULFDQFXUUHQFLHV GHSUHFLDWHGVLJQLȴFDQWO\DJDLQVWWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHV86 GROODUDQGPD\QRWUHFRYHUIRU VRPHWLPH*KDQD8JDQGD$QJROD1LJHULD 6RXWK$IULFDDQG=DPELDDOOH[SHULHQFHG VXEVWDQWLDOFXUUHQF\GHSUHFLDWLRQ7KLV UHVXOWVLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWVEHFRPLQJ PRUHH[SHQVLYHLQDVKRUWSHULRGRIWLPH $VDFRQVHTXHQFHPDQ\ODUJHVFDOHOHVV HVVHQWLDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWVKDYHEHHQ GHOD\HGRUVXVSHQGHGJLYHQSURMHFWFRVW LQȵDWLRQGXHWRFXUUHQF\GHSUHFLDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJLQ$OJHULDDQG&DPHURRQ

$ Global demand outlook UHPDLQVbVXEGXHG :HDNHUJOREDOGHPDQGIURPVRPHRI $IULFDȇVPDLQWUDGLQJSDUWQHUVHVSHFLDOO\ &KLQDDQGWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ(8 WRR KDVKDGDQHJDWLYHH΍HFWRQJURZWKLQ WKHUHJLRQ&KLQDȇVUHEDODQFLQJWRZDUGVD FRQVXPSWLRQDQGVHUYLFHVGULYHQHFRQRP\ DQGLWVVKDUSHUHFRQRPLFVORZGRZQKDV KDGDQRWHZRUWK\LPSDFWRQ$IULFD 2YHUWKHSDVWRQHDQGDKDOIGHFDGHV &KLQDKDVEHFRPHLQFUHDVLQJO\LPSRUWDQW WR$IULFDȇVPDFURHFRQRPLFSHUIRUPDQFH DVWKHFRQWLQHQWȇVPDMRUWUDGHSDUWQHUDQG DQLPSRUWDQWVRXUFHRILQYHVWPHQWȵRZV $V&KLQDȇVGHPDQGIRUFRPPRGLWLHVKDV ZDQHG$IULFDQHFRQRPLHVKDYHVHHQORZHU H[SRUWHDUQLQJVSODFLQJVWUDLQRQWKHLU FXUUHQWDQGȴVFDODFFRXQWV 7KHLQFUHDVHLQXQFHUWDLQW\IROORZLQJWKH 8.ȇVGHFLVLRQWROHDYHWKH(8ȴQDQFLDODQG JHRSROLWLFDOWURXEOHVDVZHOODVDQDHPLF JURZWKLQWKDWPRQHWDU\XQLRQZLOOOLNHO\ LQKLELWGHPDQGIRU$IULFDȇVH[SRUWVDVZHOO DVWKHVXSSO\RIFDSLWDODQGGHYHORSPHQWDO DLGWRWKHFRQWLQHQWIXUWKHU/RZHUVXSSO\ of capital and developmental aid could UHVXOWLQVRPHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWVEHLQJ GHOD\HGDVPDQ\FRXQWULHVGHSHQGKHDYLO\ RQWKHVHLQȵRZV

(PHUJHQFHRIQRQWUDGLWLRQDOH[WHUQDO funding sources 2ɝFLDOGHYHORSPHQWDVVLVWDQFH2'$ LQWKHIRUPRIJUDQWVDQGFRQFHVVLRQDO ORDQVUHPDLQV$IULFDȇVODUJHVWVRXUFHRI SXEOLFȴQDQFHDQGLVDQLPSRUWDQWGULYHU RILQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGFDSLWDOSURMHFWV RQWKHFRQWLQHQW2'$WR$IULFDZDV ZRUWK86EQLQDQGLVH[SHFWHG WRLQFUHDVHWR86EQE\WKHHQGRI 7UDGLWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW)LQDQFH ΖQVWLWXWLRQV')ΖV VXFKDVWKH:RUOG%DQN WKH$IULFDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN$I'% DQGWKH(XURSHDQΖQYHVWPHQW%DQN (Ζ% WKXVUHPDLQLPSRUWDQWIXQGHUVRI $IULFDȇVbLQIUDVWUXFWXUH ΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖVDQG&KLQHVHOHQGHUV HDFKIXQGHGDUHODWLYHO\HTXDOSURSRUWLRQ DQG RISURMHFWVLQWKLVHGLWLRQ RIWKHUHSRUW&KLQHVHOHQGHUVLQWKHIRUP RIWKH([SRUWΖPSRUW([LP %DQNRI&KLQD DQGWKH&KLQD'HYHORSPHQW%DQN&'% FRQWLQXHWRJURZLQLPSRUWDQFHLQWHUPV RIWKHYDOXHRIIXQGLQJSURYLGHGDVZHOODV WKHFURVVVHFWRUDOQDWXUHRIIXQGLQJQRZ HPHUJLQJ 7KH1HZ'HYHORSPHQW%DQNIRUPHGLQ E\WKH%5Ζ&6QDWLRQV%UD]LO5XVVLD ΖQGLD&KLQDDQG6RXWK$IULFD ZLOOOLNHO\ DOVREHFRPHDQLPSRUWDQWVRXUFHRI IXQGLQJIRU$IULFDQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWV JRLQJbIRUZDUG

15


ΖQWHUQDOIDFWRUVD΍HFWLQJ$IULFDȇV JURZWKDQGΖ &3RXWORRN

/RZHUȴVFDOUHYHQXHVLPSDFW infrastructure spend *LYHQ$IULFDȇVYDULRXVDQGFRPSOH[ GHYHORSPHQWDOFKDOOHQJHVJRYHUQPHQWV KDYHQHHGHGWRLPSOHPHQWSXEOLF LQYHVWPHQWSURMHFWVWRPHHWWKH FRQWLQHQWȇVZLGHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHJDSZKLFK WKH:RUOG%DQNSUHYLRXVO\HVWLPDWHGZLOO UHTXLUHDOPRVW86EQDQQXDOO\WKURXJK WR$QXPEHURILQWHUQDOJURZWK GULYHUVKDYHLPSDFWHGJRYHUQPHQWVȇDELOLW\ WRLPSOHPHQWVXFKLQIUDVWUXFWXUHbSURMHFWV $OPRVWKDOIRI$IULFDȇVHFRQRPLHVDUH GHSHQGHQWRQDVLQJOHUHVRXUFHH[SRUWIRU PRUHWKDQWKUHHTXDUWHUVRIWKHLUH[SRUW UHYHQXHV$IULFDQJRYHUQPHQWVQHHGWR VWUXFWXUDOO\FKDQJHDQGGLYHUVLI\DZD\

IURPEHLQJUHVRXUFHGULYHQDQGWRZDUGV PRUHYDOXHDGGHGDQGVHUYLFHVRULHQWDWHG HFRQRPLHVLQRUGHUWRWKULYHGHVSLWH FRPPRGLW\SULFHVOXPSV

KDVDQQRXQFHGWKDWWKH'XUEDQ'LJ2XW 3RUWHVWLPDWHGDWDYDOXHRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\ 86EQKDVEHHQSXWRQKROGGXHWR ORZHUWKDQH[SHFWHGHFRQRPLFJURZWK

'HFUHDVLQJȴVFDOUHYHQXHVIURPWKH UHVRXUFHVVHFWRUKDYHUHVXOWHGLQ GHWHULRUDWLQJFXUUHQWDFFRXQWEDODQFHV LQPDQ\FRXQWULHVDVJRYHUQPHQWVKDYH continued to invest in infrastructure SURMHFWVIRUVRFLRHFRQRPLFHQGVΖQ RQO\*XLQHDWKH6H\FKHOOHV&¶WH GȇΖYRLUHDQGWKH&RPRURVGLGQRWH[FHHG WKHDYHUDJHYDOXHRIWKHLUWRWDOSXEOLF GHEWWR*'3UDWLREHWZHHQDQG 66$ȇVPHGLDQSXEOLFGHEWWR*'3 UDWLRURVHE\SHUFHQWDJHSRLQWVWR $OWKRXJKWKHUHDVRQVIRUSXEOLF GHEWLQFUHDVHVYDU\PDQ\DUHOLQNHGWR SXEOLFLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWZKLFK VKRXOGVXSSRUWbHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQ WKHPHGLXPWRORQJWHUP+RZHYHUDV JRYHUQPHQWVHPEDUNRQPRUHSUXGHQW ȴVFDOFRQVROLGDWLRQLWLVOLNHO\WKDWFDSLWDO H[SHQGLWXUHZLOOHLWKHUEHFXWRUGHOD\HG JRLQJIRUZDUG7UDQVQHW6RXWK$IULFDȇV VWDWHRZQHGIUHLJKWDQGORJLVWLFVFRPSDQ\

ΖQbDQH΍RUWWRLPSOHPHQWDXVWHULW\ PHDVXUHV7DQ]DQLDȇVJRYHUQPHQW VXVSHQGHGWKH86EQ%DJDPR\R3RUW SURMHFWFKRRVLQJWRUDWKHUGLYHUWIXQGVWR VPDOOHUSRUWbSURMHFWV

5HFHQWO\VXVSHQGHGODUJHVFDOHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWV Country

Project

Sector

US$bn

*XLQHD

6LPDQGRXΖURQ2UH3URMHFW

0LQLQJ

20.0

7DQ]DQLD

%DJDPR\R3RUW

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

11.0

$QJROD

/RELWR5HȴQHU\

2LO *DV

8.0

6RXWK$IULFD

'XUEDQ'LJ2XW3RUW

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

7.5

Cameroon

0EDODP1DGHEDΖURQ2UH3URMHFW

0LQLQJ

4.7

5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR

=DQDJDΖURQ2UH3URMHFW

0LQLQJ

4.7


16


DEBT

Sovereign debt increasingly popular as DVRXUFHRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHȴQDQFLQJ 7RFRQWLQXHȴQDQFLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUH SURMHFWVDQXPEHURI$IULFDQFRXQWULHV KDYHWXUQHGWRDOWHUQDWLYHȴQDQFLQJ PHDVXUHV$IWHUWKHJOREDOȴQDQFLDOFULVLV LQQHDUO\KDOIRIDOO$IULFDQFRXQWULHV LVVXHGVRYHUHLJQERQGVDVDZD\RI ȴQDQFLQJVRFLDODQGGHYHORSPHQWJRDOV DIWHUELODWHUDOORDQVDQGJUDQWVIURPWKH(8 DQGWKH86GZLQGOHG (XURERQGVXVXDOO\GHQRPLQDWHGLQ86 GROODUV DUHVHHQDVDFKHDSHUVRXUFHRI DOWHUQDWLYHȴQDQFLQJ%RWK.HQ\DDQG (WKLRSLDXVHGIXQGVIURPWKHLU(XURERQG LVVXHVLQ(WKLRSLDZLWK86EQDQG .HQ\DLVVXHG86EQ WRȴQDQFHODUJH VFDOHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWVLQFOXGLQJ DVSHFLDOHFRQRPLF]RQH6(= DQGD UDLOZD\bSURMHFW7KHPDMRULW\RI$IULFDȇV (XURERQGVZLOOUHDFKPDWXULW\EHWZHHQ DQG$VDFRQWLQHQW$IULFDKROGV DSSUR[LPDWHO\86EQLQ(XURERQGGHEW $V$IULFDQFXUUHQFLHVKDYHGHSUHFLDWHG DJDLQVWWKH86GROODUWKHGHEWVHUYLFLQJ FRVWVRIWKHERQGVKDYHULVHQUDSLGO\ LQORFDOFXUUHQF\WHUPVΖQDGGLWLRQ PDQ\$IULFDQHFRQRPLHVVXFKDV 1LJHULD0R]DPELTXHDQG(WKLRSLDDUH VX΍HULQJIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\VKRUWDJHVΖI (XURERQGVDUHLQYHVWHGLQQRQLQFRPH JHQHUDWLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVXFKDVVRFLDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUHVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIWKHERQGV EHFRPHVbWKUHDWHQHG *DERQ*KDQDDQG5ZDQGDKDYHDOOXVHG DSRUWLRQRIWKHSURFHHGVIURPWKHLUGHEW LVVXHVWRUHȴQDQFHH[LVWLQJSXEOLFGHEW ΖIWKHFRVWRIGHEWULVHVWRRUDSLGO\PDQ\ $IULFDQFRXQWULHVPD\ȴQGWKHPVHOYHV GHIDXOWLQJRQWKHLUGHEWVSXWWLQJIXWXUH LQIUDVWUXFWXUHVSHQGDWULVN

$

Terrorism deters investment LQbLQIUDVWUXFWXUH 7KHWKUHDWRIWHUURULVWDWWDFNVKDVEHHQ VWHDGLO\LQFUHDVLQJLQSDUWVRI&HQWUDO $IULFD:HVW$IULFDDQGWKH6DKHO7KLVKDV deterred investment in infrastructure, as WKHVHDUHRIWHQWKHWDUJHWRIVXFKDWWDFNV )XUWKHUPRUHWKHLQVWDELOLW\FDXVHGE\ WKHWKUHDWRIFRQȵLFWKDVDOVRVFDUHGR΍ SRWHQWLDOLQYHVWRUVLQVRPHSDUWV6LQFH FLYLOLDQVDQGVHFXULW\VWD΍KDYHRIWHQ EHHQWKHWDUJHWRIDWWDFNVLQ%XUNLQD)DVR &¶WHGȇΖYRLUH.HQ\D0DOLDQG1LJHULD %RNR+DUDPKDVEHFRPHLQFUHDVLQJO\ YLROHQWLQ1RUWKHUQ1LJHULD&DPHURRQ &KDGDQG1LJHUZKLOHWKH1LJHU'HOWD $YHQJHUVKDYHDWWDFNHGRLOLQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQVRXWKHUQ1LJHULDΖQ.HQ\DDQG6RPDOLD $O6KDEDDEKDYHEHFRPHPRUHOHWKDO IRFXVLQJRQKLJKO\YLVLEOHWDUJHWVDQGDVD UHVXOWLQWHQVLI\LQJERWKWKHHFRQRPLFDQG SROLWLFDOLPSDFWVRIWKHDWWDFNV8JDQGDKDV GHFLGHGWRGLYHUWLWVRLOSLSHOLQHWKURXJK 7DQ]DQLDUDWKHUWKDQWKURXJK.HQ\DSDUWO\ GXHWRWKHWKUHDWSRVHGE\$O6KDEDDE LQb.HQ\D ΖQRUGHUWRFRPEDWWKHWHUURULVWWKUHDW QXPHURXVJRYHUQPHQWVKDYHKDGWR UHDOORFDWHVWDWHEXGJHWVWRZDUGVHFXULW\ DQGKXPDQLWDULDQDVVLVWDQFH3ROLWLFDO LQVWDELOLW\LQFRXQWULHVVXFKDV(WKLRSLD %XUXQGLWKH'5&DQG0R]DPELTXHKDV DOVRGHWHUUHGLQYHVWPHQWVDFURVVVHFWRUV

Changing demographics will lead to a structural shift in infrastructure 7KHVHLQWHUQDOFKDOOHQJHVFRQWLQXHWR FRH[LVWZLWKWKHFKDQJLQJGHPRJUDSKLF SURȴOHRIWKHFRQWLQHQWΖQYHVWPHQWLQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUHZLOOEHFRPHHYHQPRUH LPSRUWDQWDVSHRSOHȵRFNIURPUXUDO DUHDVWRFLWLHVLQVHDUFKRIHPSOR\PHQW HGXFDWLRQDQGVHUYLFHV$IULFDLVDOUHDG\ KRPHWRWKUHHPHJDFLWLHVGHȴQHGDV FLWLHVZLWKSRSXODWLRQVRIPRUHWKDQ PLOOLRQSHRSOH /DJRV&DLURDQG.LQVKDVD $ELGMDQ'DUHV6DODDP-RKDQQHVEXUJ .KDUWRXP/XDQGDDQG1DLURELDUH H[SHFWHGWREHFRPHPHJDFLWLHVZLWKLQWKH QH[WWHQb\HDUV $IWHU$VLD$IULFDLVWKHZRUOGȇVVHFRQG IDVWHVWXUEDQLVLQJFRQWLQHQW5DSLGDQG XQFRQWUROOHGXUEDQLVDWLRQJLYHVULVHWR VHYHUDOFKDOOHQJHVJRYHUQPHQWVKDYH RIWHQQRWEHHQDEOHWRSURYLGHWKH UHTXLVLWHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHTXLFNO\HQRXJK $SSUR[LPDWHO\RI$IULFDQVOLYHLQXUEDQ FHQWUHVFRPSDUHGWRRQO\LQΖQ RQO\WZRGHFDGHVWKHFRQWLQHQWȇVXUEDQ SRSXODWLRQKDVGRXEOHGIURPPLOOLRQ SHRSOHLQWRPLOOLRQLQΖWLV HVWLPDWHGWKDWE\WKHPLGVKDOIRI WKHFRQWLQHQWȇVSHRSOHZLOOEHOLYLQJLQFLWLHV RUWKHLUDVVRFLDWHGVOXPV8UEDQLVDWLRQ ZLOOUHTXLUHVLJQLȴFDQWLQYHVWPHQWVLQ WUDQVSRUWQHWZRUNVKRXVLQJHOHFWULFLW\ VXSSO\WHFKQRORJLFDOFRQQHFWLYLW\DQG HVSHFLDOO\WKHSURYLVLRQRIZDWHUVHZHUDJH DQGVDQLWDWLRQLIWKHVHFLWLHVDUHWREH VXVWDLQDEOH7KHSURYLVLRQRILQIUDVWUXFWXUH WRFLWLHVPD\EHFRPSOH[DVLWRIWHQLQYROYHV PXOWLSOHOHYHOVRIJRYHUQPHQW *RYHUQPHQWVKDYHDOUHDG\EHJXQLQYHVWLQJ LQWUDQVSRUWFRUULGRUVERWKZLWKLQVLQJOH FRXQWULHVDQGDFURVVERUGHUVVXFKDVWKH ΖEDGDQ/DJRV$FFUDFRUULGRUWKH1RUWKHUQ &RUULGRUEHWZHHQ&HQWUDODQG(DVW$IULFD DQGWKH0DSXWR'HYHORSPHQW&RUULGRU LQRUGHUWRFRQQHFWXUEDQFHQWUHV7KLV VWUXFWXUDOVKLIWLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHZLOODOVR FRQWULEXWHWRWKHLQFUHDVLQJLPSRUWDQFH RIVHFWRUVVXFKDVUHDOHVWDWHZKLFKFDQ DOUHDG\EHVHHQLQFRXQWULHVOLNH6RXWK $IULFD(J\SW0RURFFRDQG1LJHULD 17

Proposal Addis Ababa, title Ethiopia goes here | Section title goes here

18

18

Africa Construction Trends Report |Regional Construction in Focus: East Africa

5HJLRQDO&RQVWUXFWLRQLQ)RFXV East Africa Number of projects Value (US$bn)

2013

2014

2015

2016

61

With 43 projects valued at US$27.4bn, East Africa – which includes Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda – is home to 15% of construction projects in Africa, YDOXHGbDWRIWKHWRWDO .HQ\DDVWKHUHJLRQDOSRZHUKRXVHZLWKSURMHFWVKDVWKHJUHDWHVWQXPEHURIODUJH LQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWVRIWKHWRWDO.HQ\DLVFORVHO\IROORZHGE\(WKLRSLDDQG 8JDQGDHDFKZLWKQLQHSURMHFWVDQGWKHQ7DQ]DQLDZLWKHLJKWSURMHFWV)ROORZLQJ-RKQ 0DJXIXOLȇVHOHFWLRQDV7DQ]DQLDȇVSUHVLGHQWLQ2FWREHUWKHFRXQWU\KDVEHJXQ LPSOHPHQWLQJDXVWHULW\PHDVXUHVLQDQH΍RUWWRUHGXFHWKHZLGHQLQJEXGJHWGHȴFLW 7KLVbKDVLQFOXGHGWKHUDWLRQDOLVLQJRIDPELWLRXVFDSLWDOSURMHFWVDQGFXWWLQJVWDWHVSHQGLQJ 7KHVXVSHQVLRQRIWKH%DJDPR\R3RUW3URMHFWZRUWK86EQ KDVVHHQDVLJQLȴFDQW GHFUHDVHLQWKHYDOXHRIRQJRLQJSURMHFWVLQ(DVW$IULFD7KH%DJDPR\R3RUW3URMHFWȂ ZKLFKZRXOGEHFRPHWKHODUJHVWSRUWLQ(DVW$IULFDȂZDVVXVSHQGHGE\7DQ]DQLDȇVQHZ JRYHUQPHQWFKRRVLQJLQVWHDGWRIRFXVPRUHLQWHQVHO\RQWKHSUHYLRXVO\GHOD\HGSRUWVRI 'DUHV6DODDPDQG0WZDUD7KH%DJDPR\R3URMHFWLQFOXGHGDQHZSRUWVXSSRUWLQJUDLODQG URDGQHWZRUNVDQGDQLQGXVWULDOSDUNΖWLVQRW\HWNQRZQZKHQFRQVWUXFWLRQDW%DJDPR\R ZLOOUHVXPH

Projects by sector

2013%

2014%

2015%

2016%

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

26

Transport

Real Estate

1

11

Water

8

0LQLQJ

2

2

2

2LO *DV

2

2

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

9

6RFLDO'HYHORSPHQW

+HDOWKFDUH

19

2WKHU 6RXUFH'HORLWWHDQDO\VLV May not total to 100% due to rounding.

19


Projects by sector (number of projects) (QHUJ\ 3RZHU

25.6%

Transport

46.5%

Real Estate

11.6%

2LO *DV

2.3%

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

9.3%

+HDOWKFDUH

4.7%


Who owns? G

*RYHUQPHQW

86.0%

LB

/HEDQRQ

2.3%

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

2.3%

SG

6LQJDSRUH

2.3%

ZA

6RXWK$IULFD

2.3%

O

2WKHU

4.7%


Who funds? $IULFDQ')ΖV

23.3%

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

4.7%

G

*RYHUQPHQW

11.6%

I

ΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖV

18.6%

EU

(8

4.7%

CN

&KLQD

23.3%

A

PD

7KH7UDQVSRUWVHFWRUDFFRXQWVIRUWKH JUHDWHVWVKDUHRISURMHFWVZLWK5RDGb %ULGJHSURMHFWVFXUUHQWO\XQGHUZD\ (QHUJ\b 3RZHUSURMHFWVDUHDOVR VLJQLȴFDQWPDNLQJXSMXVWRYHUDTXDUWHU RIDOOSURMHFWVDQGDFFRXQWIRURYHU 86EQRILQYHVWPHQWV(QHUJ\VXSSO\ DQGDFFHVVLVDQLQWHJUDOSDUWRIWKH(DVW $IULFDQ&RPPXQLW\ȇV($& 'HYHORSPHQW 6WUDWHJ\7KH($&KDVLPSOHPHQWHGD UHJLRQDOVWUDWHJ\WRVFDOHXSDFFHVVWR PRGHUQHQHUJ\VHUYLFHV 2IWKH(QHUJ\ 3RZHUSURMHFWVVL[DUH UHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\IRFXVHG7KHUHJLRQ LVKRPHWRIRXUK\GURSRZHUSURMHFWV RQHVRODUSURMHFWDQGRQHZLQGSURMHFW 7KHUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\VHFWRUDFFRXQWV IRU86EQZLWKWKH*UDQG(WKLRSLDQ 5HQDLVVDQFH'DP*(5' DQG+\GURSRZHU 3URMHFWYDOXHGDW86EQWKHODUJHVW SURMHFWLQWKHUHJLRQ7KH*(5'ȇV0: capacity is an important component in (WKLRSLDȇVVWUDWHJ\WREHFRPHFDUERQ QHXWUDOLQ *RYHUQPHQWVRZQWKHPDMRULW\RISURMHFWV ZKLOHRQO\DUHRZQHGE\3ULYDWH 'RPHVWLFFRPSDQLHV7KHbUHPDLQGHU DUHRZQHGE\*HUPDQDQG %ULWLVKbFRPSDQLHV $IULFDQ')ΖVDQG&KLQDWRJHWKHUIXQGQHDUO\ KDOIRIDOOPHJDSURMHFWVLQWKHUHJLRQZLWK HDFKIXQGLQJΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖVDUH WKHQH[WPRVWSURPLQHQWIXQGHUVZLWK IROORZHGE\2WKHUIXQGHUV DQG *RYHUQPHQWV

2WKHULQFOXGHV*HUPDQ\DQGWKH8. O

2WKHU6


20

14.0%

2WKHULQFOXGHV/HEDQRQ6ZLW]HUODQG7XUNH\WKH 8.DQGWKH86


&KLQDLVDOVRWKHPRVWYLVLEOHEXLOGHU FRQVWUXFWLQJRIDOOSURMHFWV3ULYDWH 'RPHVWLFFRPSDQLHVDUHYHU\LQYROYHG LQWKHEXLOGLQJSURFHVVZLWKRI SURMHFWV&RPSDQLHVIURPΖWDO\/HEDQRQ WKH1HWKHUODQGV3RUWXJDO6ZLW]HUODQG WKH8$(DQGWKH86WRJHWKHUPDNHXS bRIbFRQWUDFWRUV

Who builds? CN

&KLQD

41.9%

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

25.6%

US

86

4.7%

JP

Japan

4.7%

KR

6RXWK.RUHD

4.7%

TR

7XUNH\

4.7%

O

2WKHU

14.0%

(DVW$IULFDȇVSURMHFWVDUHKLJKO\ FRQFHQWUDWHGZLWKWKHWHQODUJHVWSURMHFWV PDNLQJXSRIWRWDOSURMHFWVE\YDOXH )RXUUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\K\GURSRZHUDQG ZLQG SURMHFWVDFFRXQWIRUWKHJUHDWHVW VKDUHRIWKHVHSURMHFWV7KH/DNH7XUNDQD :LQG3RZHU3URMHFWLVWKHVLQJOHODUJHVW SULYDWHVHFWRULQYHVWPHQWLQ.HQ\DȇV KLVWRU\2QFHFRPSOHWHGLWZLOOSURYLGH 0:RISRZHUWRWKHJULGDSSUR[LPDWHO\ RI.HQ\DȇVLQVWDOOHGFDSDFLW\7UDQVSRUW SURMHFWVȂDOOWKUHHEHLQJUDLOZD\SURMHFWVȂ PDNHXSWKUHHRIWKHWRSWHQSURMHFWV


2WKHULQFOXGHVΖWDO\/HEDQRQ1HWKHUODQGV 3RUWXJDO6ZLW]HUODQGDQGWKH8$(

Top 10 projects (by value) Country

Project

Sector

US$bn

(WKLRSLD

*UDQG(WKLRSLDQ5HQDLVVDQFH'DP

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

4.1

.HQ\D

0RPEDVD1DLUREL5DLOZD\

Transport

3.8

8JDQGD

.DUXPD+\GURSRZHU3ODQW

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

2.2

.HQ\D

7DWX&LW\3URMHFW

Real Estate

2.1

(WKLRSLD

$ZDVK:ROGLD+DUD*HEH\D5DLO3URMHFW

Transport

1.7

(WKLRSLD

0HNHOOH+DUD*HEH\D:ROGLD5DLOZD\3URMHFW

Transport

1.5

7DQ]DQLD

0WZDUD*DV3URMHFW

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

1.3

.HQ\D

/DPX3RUW%HUWKV

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

1.0

.HQ\D

/DNH7XUNDQD:LQG3RZHU3URMHFW

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

0.9

8JDQGD

ΖVLPED+\GURSRZHU3ODQW

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

0.6

6RXUFH'HORLWWHDQDO\VLV 21

Luanda, Angola

22

22

Africa Construction Trends Report |Regional Construction in Focus: Southern Africa

Southern Africa

2013

2014

2015

2016

Number of projects

119

109

Value (US$bn)

With 85 projects, Southern Africa – which includes Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe – represents 29.7% of all projects in Africa, and 28.9% in US dollar terms, valued at US$93.4bn. 6RXWK$IULFDFRQWLQXHVWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHODUJHVWDPRXQWRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGFDSLWDO SURMHFWDFWLYLW\LQ6RXWKHUQ$IULFDZLWKIROORZHGE\$QJRODZLWKDQG 0R]DPELTXHDQG=DPELDZLWKHDFK6RXWK$IULFDDOVRKDVWKHPRVWSURMHFWV E\bFRXQWU\LQ$IULFDZLWKSURMHFWV

Projects by sector

2013%

2014%

2015%

2016%

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

Transport

18

20

Real Estate

Water

9

8

0LQLQJ

19

10

12

2LO *DV

1

2

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

6RFLDO'HYHORSPHQW

707

2

2

+HDOWKFDUH

2

1

2

1

Education

1

1

1

$JULFXOWXUH

1

1

0L[HG8VH

2WKHU

1


23



24.7%

Transport

20.0%

Real Estate

30.6%

Water

7.1%

0LQLQJ

4.7%

2LO *DV

4.7%

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

7.1%

+HDOWKFDUH

1.2%


Who owns? *RYHUQPHQW

60.0%

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

25.9%

UK

8.

3.5%

CN

&KLQD

2.4%

FR

)UDQFH

2.4%

IN

ΖQGLD

2.4%

ZA

6RXWK$IULFD

2.4%

BR

%UD]LO

1.2%

G


24

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bSURMHFWV 3URMHFWVLQ7UDQVSRUWDQG0LQLQJGHFOLQHG E\VHYHQSHUFHQWDJHSRLQWVHDFKLQWHUPV RIWKHQXPEHURISURMHFWVDORQJZLWK SURMHFWVLQWKH:DWHUVHFWRUZKLFKDOVR VDZDGHFUHDVHLQWKHQXPEHURISURMHFWV IURPQLQHWRVL[SURMHFWV7KHGHFUHDVHLQ WKHQXPEHURI0LQLQJSURMHFWVEXWDOVR 7UDQVSRUW(QHUJ\ 3RZHUDQG:DWHU SURMHFWVFDQEHDWWULEXWHGWRORZHUIRU ORQJHUFRPPRGLW\SULFHVDQGUHJXODWRU\ XQFHUWDLQW\LQDQXPEHURIFRXQWULHVLQ WKHbUHJLRQ *RYHUQPHQWRZQHGSURMHFWVDFFRXQW IRURIWKHPDUNHWVKDUHIROORZHGE\ 3ULYDWH'RPHVWLFRZQHGSURMHFWVZLWK 6LQJOHFRXQWULHVRZQLQJSURMHFWV PDGHXSWKHVPDOOHVWVKDUHLQWKHUHJLRQ ZLWKFRPELQHG ΖQDFKDQJHIURPSURMHFWVIHDWXUHGLQ 6RXWKHUQ$IULFDQJRYHUQPHQWV DUHDFFRXQWLQJIRUWKHJUHDWHVWȴQDQFLDO LQYHVWPHQWE\IXQGLQJRIDOOSURMHFWV 3ULYDWH'RPHVWLFHQWLWLHVDFFRXQWIRU IXQGLQJRISURMHFWVZLWKYDULRXV RWKHUFRXQWULHVIXQGLQJRISURMHFWV LQ6RXWKHUQ$IULFDΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖVDQG $IULFDQ')ΖVDUHIXQGLQJDQG RISURMHFWVWKURXJKRXW6RXWKHUQ$IULFD UHVSHFWLYHO\ZLWK&KLQDIXQGLQJ RIbSURMHFWV


Who funds? A

$IULFDQ')ΖV

4.7%

CN

&KLQD

8.2%

G

*RYHUQPHQW

31.8%

I

ΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖV

10.6%

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

24.7%

O

2WKHU8

20.0%


Who builds? CN

&KLQD

17.6%

PT

3RUWXJDO

9.4%

ZA

6RXWK$IULFD

8.2%

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

28.2%

G

*RYHUQPHQW

2.4%

O

2WKHU9

34.1%


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ȴQHU\LQ%HQJXHODFDUU\LQJDSULFHWDJ RI86EQ$VPHQWLRQHGHDUOLHU6RQDQJRO VXVSHQGHGWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKH/RELWR 5HȴQHU\LQ$XJXVWDVWKHVWDWHRLO FRPSDQ\KDVEHHQIRUFHGWRUHDVVHVVLWV ODUJHVFDOHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWVLQOLJKW RIORZHURLOUHYHQXHV 7KH.XVLOH&RDO)LUHG3RZHU3ODQWLQ (PDODKOHQLLQWKH0SXPDODQJDSURYLQFHRI 6RXWK$IULFDLVWKHWKLUGODUJHVWSURMHFWLQ 6RXWKHUQ$IULFDZLWKDYDOXHRI86EQ 2WKHULQFOXGHV6RXWK$IULFD)UDQFH%UD]LO WKHb8.WKH86ΖQGLD1DPLELDDQG3RUWXJDO 2WKHULQFOXGHVΖWDO\WKH8.%UD]LO)UDQFH 1HWKHUODQGV&DQDGDΖQGLD6SDLQWKH86 DQG=DPELD

25



Project

Sector

US$bn

$QJROD

.DRPER%ORFN

2LO *DV

16.0

$QJROD

/RELWR5HȴQHU\

2LO *DV

8.0

6RXWK$IULFD

.XVLOH&RDO)LUHG3RZHU3ODQW

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

7.9

6RXWK$IULFD

0RGGHUIRQWHLQ&LW\

Real Estate

7.3

6RXWK$IULFD

0HGXSL3RZHU6WDWLRQ

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

7.0

$QJROD

/DXFD+\GURSRZHU3ODQW

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

4.3

$QJROD

/XDQGDΖQWHUQDWLRQDO$LUSRUW

Transport

3.8

0R]DPELTXH

0RDWL]H([SDQVLRQ

0LQLQJ

2.1

6RXWK$IULFD

9HQHWLD'LDPRQG0LQH

0LQLQJ

2.0

=DPELD

.DIXH*RUJH/RZHU3RZHU3ODQW3URMHFW

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

2.0


26

Proposal title goes here | SectionKinshasa, title goes here DRC

27

Africa Construction Trends Report |Regional Construction in Focus: Central Africa

Central Africa


2013

2014

2015

2016

Central Africa – which includes Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, WKHb'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR'5& (TXDWRULDO*XLQHD*DERQWKH Republic of the Congo and São Tomé and Príncipe – represents 8.4% of all projects in Africa and 2.2% in terms of US dollar value. ΖQWRWDO&HQWUDO$IULFDKDVSURMHFWVYDOXHGDW86EQVLJQLȴFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQLQ DQG7KHGRZQWXUQLQFRPPRGLW\SULFHVKDVD΍HFWHG&HQWUDO$IULFDVXEVWDQWLDOO\ JLYHQWKDWDOOWKHHFRQRPLHVLQWKHUHJLRQDUHUHVRXUFHGHSHQGHQW $QXPEHURIODUJHUSURMHFWVVXFKDVWKH0EDODP1DGHEDΖURQ2UH3URMHFWLQ&DPHURRQ DQGWKH=DQDJDΖURQ2UH3URMHFWERWKZRUWK86EQ LQWKH5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJRDUH EHLQJSXWRQKROG7KHb0EDODP1DGHEDPLQHZLOORQO\EHUHVWDUWHGRQFHPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQV LPSURYH7KHb=DQDJDSURMHFWLVXQOLNHO\WRUHVXPHFRQVWUXFWLRQXQWLODWOHDVW +DOIRIWKHSURMHFWV DUHLQ&DPHURRQ&DPHURRQDOVRDFFRXQWVIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\ KDOIRIWKHSURMHFWVLQ&HQWUDO$IULFDE\YDOXH7KH'5&KDVVHYHQSURMHFWVDQGDFFRXQWVIRU RIWKHWRWDOSURMHFWbYDOXH

2013%

2014%

2015%

2016%

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

19

29

Transport

18

60

Real Estate

12

6

8

Water

6

0LQLQJ

29

8

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

6RFLDO'HYHORSPHQW


28



29.2%

Transport

41.7%

Real Estate

8.3%

Water

4.2%

0LQLQJ

8.3%

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

4.2%

6RFLDO'HYHORSPHQW

4.2%


Who owns? AU

Australia

4.2%

G

*RYHUQPHQW

87.5%

SUI

6ZLW]HUODQG

4.2%

US

86

4.2%


7UDQVSRUWSURMHFWVGRPLQDWHWKH FRQVWUXFWLRQVHFWRULQ&HQWUDO$IULFDZLWK RISURMHFWVIROORZHGE\(QHUJ\ 3RZHUDW7KH7UDQVSRUWVHFWRULV DOVRWKHPRVWYDOXDEOHVHFWRUDFFRXQWLQJ IRUQHDUO\DWKLUGRIDOOSURMHFWVE\YDOXH 86EQ *RYHUQPHQWVRZQRISURMHFWV EXWIXQGRQO\RISURMHFWV&KLQDLV WKHODUJHVWIXQGHUDWIROORZHGE\ ΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖV &KLQDLVDOVRDQLPSRUWDQWSOD\HULQWKH FRQVWUXFWLRQVHFWRUEXLOGLQJKDOIRIDOO SURMHFWVLQWKHUHJLRQ3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF SOD\HUVKDYHEHFRPHPRUHSURPLQHQW EXLOGLQJRIWRWDOSURMHFWVFRPSDUHG WRRQO\LQ 7KHODUJHVWSURMHFWFXUUHQWO\XQGHUZD\ LQ&HQWUDO$IULFDLVWKH.DWDQJD&RSSHU 0LQHLQWKH'5&0LQLQJRSHUDWLRQVZHUH VXVSHQGHGLQ6HSWHPEHUDQGWKH PLQHLVFXUUHQWO\EHLQJXSJUDGHGLQRUGHU WRSURGXFHFRSSHUDWDORZHUFRVWJLYHQ WKHH[SHFWHGORQJFRPPRGLW\GRZQWXUQ 7KHWRSODUJHVWSURMHFWVLQ&HQWUDOb$IULFD UHSUHVHQWRIWKHWRWDOSURMHFWV E\YDOXH$OOIRXURIWKH(QHUJ\ 3RZHUSURMHFWVOLVWHGLQWKHWRSDUH K\GURSRZHUSURMHFWVRIZKLFKWKUHHDUH LQb&DPHURRQ

Who funds? $IULFDQ')ΖV

16.7%

AU

Australia

4.2%

CN

&KLQD

33.3%

G

*RYHUQPHQW

4.2%

I

ΖQWHUQDWLRQDO')ΖV

25.0%

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

8.3%

SUI

6ZLW]HUODQG

4.2%

US

86

4.2%

A


29


Who builds? CN

&KLQD

PD

3ULYDWH'RPHVWLF

20.8%

FR

)UDQFH

8.3%

O

2WKHU10

20.8%

50%

6RXUFH'HORLWWHDQDO\VLV 2WKHULQFOXGHV$XVWUDOLD)LQODQG6ZLW]HUODQG 7XUNH\DQGWKH86


Project

Sector

US$bn

'5&

.DWDQJD&RSSHU0LQH

0LQLQJ

0.9

Cameroon

/LPEH'HHS6HD3RUW

6KLSSLQJ 3RUWV

0.7

*DERQ

/LEUHYLOOH3RUW*HQWLO5RDG3URMHFW

Transport

0.6

Cameroon

0HPYH HOH+\GURSRZHU6WDWLRQ

(QHUJ\ 3RZHU

0.6

'5&

0HQJR3RWDVK3URMHFW

Real Estate

0.5

Cameroon