Aug 28, 2013 - land and pasture (good, average, poor) ... the value of good cropland was up in. 18 of the 20 areas of ..
Missouri Farm Land Values Opinion Survey—2013 Ron Plain and Joyce White
Agricultural Economics Newsletter FM 2013-1 August 28, 2013
Ron Plain Extension Economist
220 Mumford Hall University of Missouri Columbia, MO 65211 phone: 573-882-6533 FAX: 573-884-6572 e-mail:
[email protected] website: agebb.missouri.edu/mgt/landsurv
University of Missouri, Lincoln University, U.S. Department of Agriculture & Local Extension Councils Cooperating Equal opportunity/ADA institutions
A survey was conducted in July 2013 to determine what people think has been happening to farmland values in Missouri. In Missouri, land sales prices need not be reported to any governmental or public agency. We hope the opinions expressed by our survey respondents will be helpful to others needing to estimate current farmland values and trends. Of the 207 persons responding in 2013, 69% were lenders, 12% rural appraisers, 6% extension specialists, 5% broker/realtors, and 8% were in other occupations. They provided their opinions to questions concerning current farmland values and trends. They were asked to exclude from their answers tracts smaller than 40 acres or land being converted to development or commercial uses. Average Value of Land Respondents were asked to give their estimates of land values as of July 2013 for three classes of cropland and pasture (good, average, poor), timberland (with valuable trees), and hunting/recreation land (land with little productive ag. value but with desirable aesthetic qualities). Classification of land was left to the judgment of each respondent. Their responses are summarized on Maps 1, 2 and 3 on the following pages. This year’s respondents reported the value of good cropland was up in 18 of the 20 areas of the state for a statewide average of $4,510/ac., 17% above last year. Regionally, the biggest jumps were a 48% increase in the northwest corner of the state to $7,205/ac. and a 51% increase in the southeast corner to $7,753/ac. The statewide average value for good pasture land was up 12% at $2,492/ ac. Timber and hunting/recreation land were up about 10% at $1,817/ ac., and $1,724/ac., respectively.
Who Is Buying Land? Survey respondents thought 69% of farmland buyers planned to farm the land themselves (Map 4). This is a one point increase over 2012. The number planning to rent out remained steady at 22% and the number planning to use the land for non-farming purposes declined one point to 9%. Factors Affecting Values Factors cited by many respondents as supporting farm land prices were similar to last year - low interest rates, low returns from other types of investments, crop insurance, high grain and livestock prices (profits). Changes in any of these factors could affect land prices negatively. Respondents from areas with very productive cropland reported continued demand for large tracts of good cropland but few sellers. They saw local farmers in a strong cash position with the technology and confidence to farm more land and other investors who anticipated a good return from crop share or cash rent. In south central areas with very little cropland the respondents saw less increase in land values. Operating margins were thin and few local residents could afford to buy more land. In a few locations over the state, respondents reported an impact from groups of individuals who wanted to own land near one another. Also, some saw a few land purchases by people who were fearful of new government policies and thought land was a more secure investment than U.S. currency. Outlook (Map 6) Over the next 12 months, respondents expect the rate of increase in cropland values to slow to 2.6%, while pasture values increase about 1.3% and non-crop/non-pasture values increase 0.8%.
Map 1. Estimated cropland values per acre for July 2013
Andrew Buchanan
Harrison
Mercer
Gentry
Grundy
DeKalb
5064 3366 2449
Clinton
Daviess Caldwell
Platte
Linn
Livingston
5287 3883 2509
Jackson
4217 3324 2535
Sullivan
6155 4245 2931
Lafayette
Cooper
Johnson
Vernon
St Clair
3051 2607 2238
Barton Jasper
Camden
Cedar Dade
2726 2263 1883
Greene Christian
Stone
Barry
2550 2200 1815
McDonald
Good cropland Average cropland Poor cropland
Jefferson
St Francois Madison
Iron Reynolds
n/a
2333 1839 1667
Oregon
4700 3425 2325
Ste Genevieve
Washington
Howell
Ozark
Taney
Franklin Crawford
Dent Shannon
2040 1714 1444
Map legend, region averages:
5023 St Charles 3867 2850
Warren
2400 1896 1649
Texas
Wright
Douglas
Lincoln
Maries
Dallas Laclede
Webster
Audrain
Osage
Pulaski
Polk
Pike
Monroe
3779 2987 2242
Miller
Hickory
Lawrence
Newton
Benton Morgan
3008 2498 1991
Ralls
Callaway
Moniteau Cole
$4510 $3395 $2495
Marion
5550 4199 3039
Boone
Saline Pettis
Henry
Lewis
Randolph Howard
Missouri Average Good cropland Average cropland Poor cropland
5730 3858 2724 Shelby
5881 4139 3071
Cass
Bates
Clark
Scotland
Adair Knox
Macon
Chariton
Carroll
Ray
Clay
Schuyler
Putnam
Montgomery
7205 5532 3679
Worth
Gasconade
Holt
Nodaway
Phelps
Atchison
Perry
Bollinger
Wayne Carter Ripley
Cape Girardeau Scott
Stoddard
Butler
7753 5964 3954
Dunklin
Mississippi New Madrid
Pemiscot
Map 2. Estimated pastureland values per acre for July 2013 3712 2864 2322 Andrew Buchanan Platte
Worth
Harrison
Mercer
Gentry
Grundy
DeKalb
2674 2147 1720
Clinton
Daviess Caldwell
Jackson
2946 2427 2036
2235 1895 1534
Sullivan Livingston
Linn
Schuyler
2800 2253 1784
Lafayette
Saline Pettis
Vernon
2096 1823 1549 Barton Jasper Newton
St Clair Cedar
Boone Cooper
Dade
McDonald
Camden
Polk
2064 1713 1428
Lawrence Barry
Miller
Hickory
Maries Phelps
Texas
Greene Christian Taney
Audrain
Osage
2487 2076 1599 Pulaski
Webster
Pike
Callaway
Dallas Laclede
Douglas
Ozark
1634 1372 1151
Lincoln
Franklin Crawford
Dent Shannon
Howell Oregon
Map legend, region averages: Good pastureland Average pastureland Poor pastureland
2744St Charles 2416 1978
Warren
1712 1431 1154
Wright
Stone
1996 1671 1350
Ralls
2621 2134 1708
Moniteau Cole
2032 1719 1447
Marion
Monroe
Howard
Benton Morgan
Missouri Average Good pastureland $2492 Average pastureland $2041 Poor pastureland $1646
Lewis
Randolph
Johnson Bates
2528 2039 1725 Shelby
2951 2268 1774
Cass Henry
Clark
Scotland
Adair Knox
Macon
Chariton
Carroll
Ray
Clay
Putnam
Montgomery
Holt
Nodaway
Gasconade
Atchison
Jefferson
Iron Reynolds
1582 1396 1180
St Francois Madison
n/a Wayne Carter Ripley
2858 2325 1683
Ste Genevieve
Washington
Butler
Perry
Bollinger
Cape Girardeau Scott
Stoddard
3219 2379 1793
Dunklin
Pemiscot
Mississippi New Madrid
Map 3. Estimated timber and hunting/recreation land values per acre for July 2013 Worth
2715 2412
Gentry
Andrew Buchanan Platte
Harrison
2230 2168
DeKalb
Sullivan
2055 1943
Lafayette
Randolph
1754 1661
Cooper
Johnson
Vernon
1635 1615 Barton Jasper Newton
Benton Morgan Miller
1605 1453 St Clair Cedar
Callaway Osage
1613 1565
Maries
Camden
Hickory
Polk
Pulaski
Phelps
Texas
1595 1417 Lawrence
Webster
1271 1088
Stone
1525 1373
Taney
St Charles
Warren
Ste Genevieve
Washington
Iron Reynolds
Oregon
Ozark
Timber land Hunting/recreation land
Jefferson
1277 1073
Howell
Map legend, region averages:
2147 2141
Franklin Crawford
Dent Shannon
Wright
Greene Christian Douglas
Lincoln
1135 1095
Dallas Laclede
Dade
Barry McDonald
Moniteau Cole
Henry
Pike Audrain
Boone
Cass
Bates
Ralls Monroe
Saline Pettis
Marion
2035 1921
Howard
Missouri Average Timber land $1817 Hunting/recreation land $1724
Lewis Shelby
Chariton
1828 1837
2033 1897
Adair Knox
Macon
Carroll
Ray
Clay
1687 1808
Livingston Linn
Daviess Caldwell
Clinton
Jackson
Grundy
Clark
Schuyler Scotland
Putnam
Mercer
Montgomery
Holt
Nodaway
Gasconade
Atchison
St Francois Madison
Perry
n/a
Bollinger
Wayne Carter Ripley
Butler
2017 1767 Cape Girardeau Scott
Stoddard
1795 1922
Dunklin
Mississippi New Madrid
Pemiscot
Map 4. Use to be made of farmland purchased in 2013 70% 23% 7%
66% 24% 10%
57% 37% 6% 72% 24% 4%
72% 21% 7%
Values estimated in this survey exclude tracts smaller than 40 acres or farmland being priced on its development potential.
69% 22% 9%
83% 12% 5%
78% 13% 9% 92% 5% 3%
Agricultural Land Values Per Acre June 2013 (USDA/NASS) Missouri Kansas Arkansas Iowa Illinois Cornbelt (IN, IL, IA, MO, OH) U.S. (average 48 states)
Cropland
Pasture
$3,800 2,100 2,560 8,600 7,900 6,980 4,000
$1,950 1,250 2,400 3,400 3,700 2,490 1,200
All land & bldgs. $3,100 1,900 3,000 8,400 7,800 6,400 2,900
66% 26% 8%
Missouri Average Operate farm themselves 69% Rent it out 22% Not use for ag production 9%
70% 24% 6% 63% 29% 8%
52% 31% 17%
68% 16% 16%
Map legend, region averages: Operate farm themselves Rent it out Not use for ag production 77% 15% 8%
72% 13% 15% 74% 14% 12%
62% 11% 27%
n/a 60% 37% 3%
Map 5. Percent change in estimated Missouri farmland values between July 2012 and July 2013 +47.7% +28.1% +37.3%
+6.2% +9.0% +17.9%
+17.8% +19.4% +6.1%
+14.9% +10.0% +7.8%
+12.9% +15.4% +6.0%
+27.9% +9.3% +0.6%
+25.0% +20.1% +30.8%
+19.2% +8.5% +0.4%
+17.9% +7.3% +8.7%
+5.9% +5.3% +3.1%
Missouri Average Change Good cropland +17.2% Good pastureland +11.9% Non-crop/non-pasture +10.3%
+24.4% +30.1% +20.6% +6.2% +5.7% -1.1% -2.0% +5.3% -4.5%
Map legend, region averages: Good cropland +12.9% +11.5% Good pastureland +3.8% Non-crop/non-pasture +19.3% -0.4% -9.0%
+5.9% +5.1% +6.4%
+10.6% +2.9% +36.8% n/a
+37.2% -17.7% -1.8%
+51.4% +28.8% +5.5%
Map 6. Forecasted percent change in Missouri farmland values between July 2013 and July 2014 -1.0% -0.6% +1.3%
+1.5% +1.1% +1.2%
+2.9% +1.9% +0.5%
+5.8% +1.9% +1.6%
+5.7% +3.7% +2.5% +6.0% +6.2% +4.7%
All Farmland & Buildings, 1950-2013 Missouri Values, USDA/NASS
Actual
+2.0% -1.8% -1.1%
Missouri Average Change Cropland + 2.6% Pastureland + 1.3% Non-crop/non-pasture + 0.8%
+2.1% +1.0% -0.3% +0.6% -0.4% -0.7%
-1.1% -0.8% 0.0%
+2.5% +1.0% +0.5%
Map legend, region averages: Cropland Pastureland Non-crop/non-pasture
+2.0%
+8.6% +2.2% +1.0%
+1.3% +0.7%
+4.9% +4.3% +4.0%
$/acre 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
+1.6% -0.4% -0.5%
+1.2% +0.7% +0.3%
6% Trend
50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 Year
+0.2% +1.8% +0.5%
-1.4% +0.4% -0.1%
n/a +4.7% +1.0% +0.3%