DTO export revenues: RAND estimate (2010). Mexican DTOs: Best estimate of gross export revenues, 2010 (USD bn). 3.4. 1.5
TRANSNATIONAL CRIME, LOCAL CRIMINALS Rethinking the size and shape of Mexican organized crime December 2011
DTO revenues: USG estimates USG estimates of Mexican DTO revenues (USD bn) Agency
Date
Low
High
ONDCP
2006
13.8
13.8
NDIC */
2009
18
39
ICE
2010
19
29
Source: ONDCP, NDIC, ICE */ Includes revenues accruing to Colombian DTOs
DTO export revenues: RAND estimate (2010) Mexican DTOs: Best estimate of gross export revenues, 2010 (USD bn) 0.6 1.1
3.4
1.5
Cocaine Source: Kilmer et al 2010
Marijuana
Heroin
Meth
DTO export revenues: Our estimate (2011) Mexican DTOs: Estimates of gross export revenues, 2011 (USD bn)
Drug
Low
Best
High
Marijuana
1.4
1.9
2.5
Cocaine
2.1
2.8
3.6
Meth
0.5
0.6
0.8
Heroine
0.7
0.9
1.2
Total
4.7
6.2
8.1
Source: IMCO / México Evalúa (2011, unpublished) Note: estimates within 90% confidence interval
DTO income: missing pieces GROSS EXPORT REVENUES - COST OF DRUGS = NET DRUG EXPORT REVENUES + NET DOMESTIC DRUG REVENUES + US DOMESTIC DISTRIBUTION REVENUES = TOTAL DRUG INCOME + NON-DRUG INCOME = TOTAL INCOME
Evidence from BOP? Mexico: Errors and omisssions account , 2000-2010 (USD bn) -14.0 -12.0
(USD bn, inverted scale)
-10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 2000
Source: INEGI
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Jan-00
60.0
Source: Banxico May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-05
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-03
Sep-02
May-02
Jan-02
Sep-01
May-01
Jan-01
Sep-00
May-00
Evidence of “Dutch disease”? MX Peso: Trade-weighted exchange index, 2000-2011 (100=Jan. 2000)
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
Evidence in banking system? Mexico: Commercial bank deposits, 2000-2010 (% GDP) 18 16.1
16.4
2000
2001
16
16.1
15.9
15.9
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: CNBV, BBVA-Bancomer
15.2
2006
19
18.9
2009
2010
16
2007
2008
-1.0 Tabasco Campeche Puebla Veracruz Hidalgo SLP Distrito Federal Moralos Chiapas Oaxaca Guerrero México Quintana Roo Yucatán Nayarit Tlaxcala Colima Nacional Sinaloa Michoacán Querétaro Coahuila Tamaulipas Durango Nuevo León Sonora Aguascalientes Chihuahua Guanajuato Baja California Sur Jalisco Baja California Zacatecas
Evidence in housing market? Mexico: Real housing price index by state, 2005-2010 ( average annual real growth)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Source: SHF, Banxico
Evidence in stock market? Selected LATAM stock markets, 2000-2011
Source: Bloomberg
Vertical integration? Drug-related state and federal inmates by self-specified role and national/ethnic origin, 2004 (%) Unspecified Possession Mule Retailer Wholesaler Money laundering Producer Importer 0%
10%
US, Non-Mexican
20%
30%
40%
Mexican-American
50%
60%
Mexican
70%
80%
90%
Other nationals
Source: Caulkins/Sevigny 2010, with data from Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities (2004)
100%
A taxonomy of criminal groups Domestic traders Local drug distributors
Acapulco gangs
Human traffickers
Sinaloa Piracy rings
Local
Traditional smugglers
Illicit traffic
Fuel thiefs
BLO
Templarios
Zetas
Local kidnappers
Prison gangs
Gulf
AFO Juárez / BA
Transnational
Migrant kidnappers
“Fakers”
Muscle men
Rent extraction
Border extortionists
Three conclusions and some implications Conclusions
CW about size, most likely wrong Network, not vertically-integrated structure Highly diversified criminal forms: TCO denomination obscures the issue!
Implications
No long-term threat to Mexican national security Key issue: law and order Need for local responses (while leveraging federal + US resources)
Thank you
Alejandro Hope Proyecto MC2 (Menos Crimen, Menos Castigo) Blog: http://www.animalpolitico.com/blogueros-plata-o-plomo Twitter: @ahope71
