Aon Benfield Research Newsletter [PDF]

Aon Benfield Research Newsletter Edition Three Editorial Welcome to the third edition of the Aon Benfield Research Newsletter, which shares the news on our global research organisations and highlights how academia can work hand in hand with business to improve risk awareness and deliver practical results for the insurance industry. We gleaned many valuable lessons in 2011 to shape our research in the year ahead – from the tragic catastrophic events to the Aon Benfield Research conference which for the first time brought together our research partners to present their work and discuss future collaborations. The Japanese and New Zealand earthquakes fuelled more research towards secondary perils such as tsunamis and liquefaction. The Thai floods showed us the loss potential in South-East Asia and highlighted that more sophisticated methods of industrial loss quantification will be required in the near future. To support our clients, we are developing a flood risk model for Thailand and boosting understanding on the peril across Asia.

As we enter the third year of our collaboration, 2012 is all about continuing our application of relevant research for the industry across the wide spectrum of projects ranging from the creation of components for catastrophe models to bespoke client analysis. In this edition of the newsletter, we give an update on the non-modelled perils campaign, look at how the latest academic research is being incorporated into catastrophe models and interview John McAneney, the director of Risk Frontiers. Enjoy!

Adam Podlaha International head of Impact Forecasting and chair of the Aon Benfield Research steering committee ([email protected])

Contents New Initiative on Non-Modelled Perils

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Hazard Short Courses For Insurers

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Updated Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk in China

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European Extreme Wind Climatology

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Financial Impact of El Niño and La Niña

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Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics

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Geological Society Earthquake Model Paper

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Forecasting the El Hierro Eruption

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Enhancing Impact Forecasting Catastrophe Models 4

Interview with John McAneney, Risk Frontiers

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Aon Benfield Enhances ImpactOnDemand

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Aon Benfield Research Links

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1st Aon Benfield Research Conference

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Contacts

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Aon Benfield Research

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Latest Research New Initiative on Non-Modelled Perils The Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre launched its initiative on the non-modelled perils of volcanism, landslides and tsunamis at a major seminar in London. The event was attended by nearly 200 insurers, demonstrating the industry interest in these perils for which there are no commercial catastrophe models available.

Estimates of risk must include how these perils contribute to insurance losses and how they link to modelled perils, such as earthquakes, windstorms and floods. Recent events have endorsed this need; for example, the Tohoku earthquake clearly demonstrated the huge losses that may arise from resultant tsunamis and the knock-on effects of contingent business and supply chain interruptions. Such interruptions were also a major consequence of the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland in 2010. The new initiative on non-modelled perils highlights the way in which the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre is successfully working in partnership with Aon Benfield to develop and apply Source: United States Geographical Survey scientific and technical knowledge in model development and catastrophe management to create a more accurate picture of insurers’ overall catastrophe risk.

With its expertise in Earth processes, the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre is focusing on the hazard and vulnerability aspects of the nonmodelled perils. Its work is integrated with Aon Benfield’s expertise in exposure and loss estimation in order to boost insurers’ understanding of non-modelled perils and how they could impact their portfolios. Manamisanriku tsunami (Source: British Geological Survey)

Introductory Guide Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre has launched an introductory guide on volcanoes, landslides and tsunamis to highlight the important characteristics that global insurers should know and consider when assessing their risks. View the guide ‘Getting to Grips with Non-Modelled Perils’ at: http://www.aon.com/attachments/reinsurance/2 01107_ab_analytics_non_modelled_perils.pdf

La Conchita landlside (Source: United States Geographical Survey)


Contact: Stephen Edwards ([email protected]) or Catherine Lowe ([email protected])

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Updated Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk in China Beijing Normal University, a partner of Aon Benfield Research’s academic collaboration, has led research for the third edition of the Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk in China, a Chinese government research project that for the first time looks at how hazard, vulnerability and exposure integrate to help implement more effective prevention measures. Over the past 20 years, the annual economic loss from Chinese natural hazards has reached nearly 200 billion RMB. Most recently, major events have included snow storm and the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the drought in north, northeast and southwest China in 2009, and the 2010 Yushu earthquake.

Financial Impact of El Niño and La Niña The Lighthill Risk Network has launched its report on Global Impact Of El Niño And La Niña: Implications For Financial Markets. El Niño and La Niña change the risk of damaging events including storms and floods, by altering the atmospheric conditions that influence their occurrence. The highly active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was associated with the onset of a La Niña event, which was well-predicted several months in advance. The influence of the El Niño – La Niña cycle extends well beyond Atlantic hurricanes however: the La Niña event also contributed to events such as the estimated $5.5bn flooding of Queensland Australia in 2010/11, with significant impacts on property and wider financial markets. The swings in risks can be understood in terms of physical processes, and some of them can be anticipated. The aim of this paper is to define and describe the cycle of El Niño and La Niña episodes and their worldwide impacts most relevant to the finance industry, highlighting in particular severe rainfall and tropical storm aspects. Contact: Lighthill Risk Network ([email protected]) or Paul Kaye ([email protected])

China earthquake map

The Atlas pools almost a decade of research to deliver some 400 maps. It comprises all major natural perils including earthquake, flood, drought, landslide, storms, snow, hail, frost, forest fire and grassland fire. Presented on a national and local basis, the Atlas also includes maps showing topography, climate, vegetation zones and land use. Peijun Shi, Executive Vice President of Beijing Normal University and Chief Editor of the Atlas added: "The previous atlas focused on spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and their impact based on historical records. The new atlas moves one step forward to include vulnerability and exposure. For example, the snow storm section looks at the impact on livestock, airports and their importance to the social-economic system. The Atlas provides a scientific basis for the Chinese government and businesses to develop disaster risk measures, using state-of-art risk mapping in natural disasters, ecological safety and global change in China." Contact: Helen Ye ([email protected]) Aon Benfield Research

Geological Society Publishes Paper On Earthquake Cat Models For Disaster Planning Aon Benfield Analytics has written one of the first public papers outlining the potential application of earthquake catastrophe models for governmental and humanitarian purposes. The paper, entitled Earthquake Catastrophe Models in Disaster Response Planning, Risk Mitigation and Financing in Developing Countries in Asia, has been published by The Geological Society of London and was authored by Aon Benfield Analytics’ Nigel Winspear, Rade Musulin and Mohan Sharma. It considers the application of catastrophe models to disaster relief and response planning, mitigation of loss and ex ante disaster risk financing as a means for cushioning national economies from the financial shock of severe earthquakes. Contact: Nigel Winspear ([email protected]) and Rade Musulin ([email protected]) or visit http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/page10523.html 3

Innovation Enhancing Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Models Over half of the firm’s partnerships are working with Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s model development centre of excellence, to develop catastrophe model components. Each collaboration is unique but there are key common elements: 1. The deliverable must form part of Impact Forecasting’s models that assess the potential financial loss of events. These are then integrated into ELEMENTS, Impact Forecasting’s loss calculation platform 2. Each project has a defined plan and an Aon Benfield point person to meet delivery targets 3. The project is very collaborative so the partnership and project evolve with continuous input from both parties to take advantage of the synergies.

Model Launches and Updates The Impact Forecasting Algeria earthquake model contains a hazard module developed by Andrzej Kijko, director of Aon Benfield Natural Hazard Centre in Pretoria. It is based on state-ofthe-art methods, local knowledge and expertise, including important deliverables such as: areaspecific seismic hazard parameters and synthetic catalogue of earthquakes for a period of 50,000 years. The model is part of Impact Forecasting’s regional Maghreb earthquake model which is already being applied to estimate insurers’ earthquake losses. Contact: Andrzej Kijko ([email protected]) or Goran Trendafiloski ([email protected])

Spatial distribution of the seismic activity rate λ in the Maghreb region


The University of Cologne is providing wind field footprints for the hazard component of the panEuropean windstorm model. High resolution data on the historical storms are dynamically simulated using the COSMO-CLM regional model, while the stochastic ones are extracted from the Global Climate Model. Most crucially, a unique stochastic calibration tool is being developed to correct and deliver unbiased footprints. Also, see the new paper on Klaus – an exceptional winter storm over northern Iberia and southern France in the Weather journal, co-authored by Joaquim Pinto, at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.7 55/abstract Contact: Joaquim Pinto ([email protected]) or Alexandros Georgiadis ([email protected]) Impact Forecasting updated its UK terrorism catastrophe model – that estimates the financial loss to life insurers from potential terrorist events – with the help of Aon Risk Solutions and the University of St Andrews. Counter-terrorism experts from Aon Risk Solution’s Crisis Management team provided input on event frequency, credible attack types and damage profiles for various scenarios, while the university tested the model to bolster the assumptions that lie at the heart of the system. Richard English and Rashmi Singh from the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St Andrews University specialise in the threat emanating from Irish Republican terrorism and Islamic Fundamentalism in the UK, respectively – two key threats facing the UK. Contact: Mark Lynch ([email protected])

Modelling process attack illustration for UK terrorism

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Aon Benfield enhances ImpactOnDemand tool to expand risk visualisation Aon Benfield launched a new release of ImpactOnDemand® to help insurers with more complex commercial policy structures to visualise exposures, deliver more detailed management reports and enable enhanced portfolio management. ImpactOnDemand, which uses hazard data from Aon Benfield Research partners, is a highly innovative and versatile platform that allows clients to visualise and quantify their exposures to risk, in addition to performing sophisticated, detailed data analysis to drive insightful business decisions.

New scaled analysis to quickly identify and evaluate an insurer’s top exposures, with the size of locations in correlation with their value – such as sums insured, location of premiums or losses

Thematic mapping for robust portfolio accumulation analysis

In addition, several enhancements were made to the shape library within ImpactOnDemand in response to the natural catastrophe events of 2011. These include: Earthquake

Tohoku Earthquake in Japan 11 March (shape files for MMI intensity, PGA maps and tsunami footprints, plus MMI maps for subsequent Japanese earthquakes on 15 March, 4 July and 23 November)

Christchurch Earthquake in New Zealand 22 February

Van Turkey Earthquake 23rd August

Various US Earthquake (Trinidad Colorado, Northern Virginia, Oklahoma)

Flood

Thailand

Queensland, Australia

Lower Mississippi and Souris, U.S.

Tropical Cyclone

Back catalogue of all named tropical depressions for 2011, notably:

Irene – US Northeast Cat 1 Hurricane

Nalgae – Philippines Cat 2 Typhoon

European Extra-Tropical Cyclone ImpactOnDemand’s footprint of insurer exposure for the tsunami triggered by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Live event forecasting via EuroTempest wind forecasts

The new functions, particularly geared at analysing commercial policy structures with capped policy limits, include:

European historic event catalogue: Lukas/Marc, Nicolas, Yoda, Friedhelm, Hergen, Joachim, Dagmar, Ulli

Contact: Kristi Wilts ([email protected]) or Dave Barthorpe ([email protected]) for information on how you can contribute to ImpactOnDemand’s hazard data.

More interactive and enhanced data analysis within the base map to evaluate portfolio exposures by country, overlay the top 50 exposures and then identify proximity of portfolio hot spots to hazard risks such as hurricanes with data from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)


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Member News 1st Aon Benfield Research Conference The 1st Aon Benfield Research Conference was held in London to bring together the firm’s academic and industry partners from across the globe. Research from Aon Benfield showed that nearly 60% of insurers believe the insurance industry needs to invest more into understanding catastrophe risk and over half say they do not have an adequate grasp on non-modelled perils. Highlighting academia’s crucial role in achieving this goal, the conference examined how the scientific world can boost re/insurers’ risk awareness over a five year horizon. The event enabled partners to share research and case studies on how science has been applied to support the insurance industry. In addition, presentations delved into topics such as tackling challenges in European windstorm modelling from University of Cologne and when anthropogenic climate change signals will be detected in US tropical cyclone loss data from Risk Frontiers. The Aon Benfield team demonstrated ImpactOnDemand, the risk visualization mapping tool, and ELEMENTS, the loss calculation platform from Impact Forecasting, to show how academic research feeds directly into tools to really help insurers grasp the nature of their exposures and potential losses.

Feedback The feedback survey encouragingly showed a 100% response rate for wishing to attend a similar conference next year and on an annual basis. Delegates enjoyed “the very pleasant, informal ambience”, “learning what other people cooperating with Aon Benfield are doing”, “getting to know the staff and work of all of the partners” and “the interesting insight into research/business interface problems.”

Nurturing Successful Collaborations A key aim of the conference was also to discuss how to nurture strong academic and industry collaboration. This crucial feedback has been instrumental in shaping the key elements of our plan going forward. Key steps include: 1. Assigning a point person to each partner to enhance project coordination, define goals and give greater access to the business 2. Opening up all new projects to each partner to allow clients to take advantage of synergies and the breadth of expertise across Aon Benfield Research. 3. Continually boosting partners’ knowledge of the insurance industry and how research can be relevantly applied.

Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre short courses for re/insurers The Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre has delivered a short course to over 50 insurers – from property underwriters to catastrophe modelers – on earthquake and windstorm for insurers. The New Zealand earthquakes, Cyclone Yasi and windstorm Xynthia have heightened insurers’ need to understand the nature and impact of these global perils. In response, the course comprised three main elements: a global overview of the hazards, engineering aspects of building design to resist such perils and the quantification of damage and loss caused by severe events. Ramona Dooraree, commercial property assistant underwriter Amlin Plc, attended a course run specifically for the insurer and said: “The short course proved to be very informative to the whole team. The course outline was well structured and relevant to our class of business with some interesting facts and issues regarding building design and damage highlighted.” The ABUHC offers short courses on a wide range of subjects of specific relevance to the insurance industry and welcomes suggestions. Contact: Stephen Edwards ([email protected]) or Catherine Lowe ([email protected])


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Development of a European Extreme Wind Climatology The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) has awarded funding for a post-doctoral position to develop a reliable European extreme wind climatology that would allow insurers to price wind risk more accurately. This is under the supervision of Mark Saunders in the Department of Space and Climate Physics at UCL. The insurance industry is lacking detailed historical information on the incidence of high and damaging winds by location across Western Europe. As such, the project is analysing the untapped European wind observation data in the NERC Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS). The MIDAS data offer a unique opportunity to generate an improved wind climatology for the UK and Europe for the benefit of the insurance industry. In addition, NERC has awarded two 3.5 year PhD research studentships (CASE sponsored by Aon Benfield) to look at the development of extreme weather climatologies in both the UK and Europe and in south east Asia. These projects are also supervised by Mark Saunders at UCL. The initial focus of the first studentship is to examine UK freeze with the purpose of deriving exceedance probability distributions for various locations and levels of spatial resolution. Contact: Mark Saunders ([email protected]) or Danelle Botes ([email protected])

Encyclopaedia of Solid Earth Geophysics The Aon Benfield Hazard Centre Pretoria has contributed to the Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, edited by Harsh Gupta and published by Springer. The past few decades have witnessed the growth of the Earth Sciences in the pursuit of knowledge and understanding of the planet that we live on.

Earth in terms of the principles of physics and forms the intrinsic framework. Andrzej Kijko has written about seismic hazard and how the estimation of the expected ground motion which can occur at a particular site is vital to the design of important structures such as nuclear power plants, bridges and dams. In addition, Andrzej has co-authored two new papers: Seismic Risk Ranking for Large Dams in South Africa helps dam owners and regulators to ensure that dams are safely operated and present minimal risk to the public in case of extreme loads such as floods and earthquakes. Statistical Tools for Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude Estimation compares procedures to help the insurance industry assess worse case scenarios. Contact: Andrzej Kijko ([email protected]) or Goran Trendafiloski ([email protected])

GFZ collaboration extends to tsunami Aon Benfield has extended its partnership with GFZ Potsdam to gain the tsunami expertise of Andrey Babeyko from the Geodynamic Modelling department. The collaboration was motivated by the need to define tsunamis as secondary perils of earthquakes to model the hazard within Impact Forecasting’s loss calculation platform (ELEMENTS). Together with GFZ experts, Aon Benfield will perform a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of thousands of tsunamigenic earthquakes and calculate the annual probability of certain tsunami wave heights at the shore. This work is done in collaboration with the Seismic Hazard and Stress Field team at GFZ Potsdam lead by Gottfried Grünthal – where the partnership originated – and Impact Forecasting’s earthquake experts. Tsunami modelling tools will be used to expand Impact Forecasting’s earthquake modelling capabilities in different territories and address the need to further understand non-modelled perils. Contact: Andrey Babeyko ([email protected]), Gottfried Grünthal ([email protected]) or Oriol Gaspa ([email protected])

Solid Earth Geophysics aspires to define and quantify the internal structure and processes of the Aon Benfield Research

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Forecasting the El Hierro Eruption On 22 September 2011, the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre (ABUHC) warned that a volcanic eruption could occur during the first fortnight of October at El Hierro, the most westerly of the volcanic Canary Islands (Fig. 1). On 10 October, a submarine eruption was announced just off the south coast of the island and the eruption was confirmed five days later by the appearance of steaming volcanic rock floating offshore (Fig. 2). The successful forecast was based on ABUHC research into how local earthquakes and stretching of the ground can be used to forecast the approach of molten rock, or magma, to the Earth’s surface.

The ABUHC models are extensions of the pioneering work by Barry Voight (Penn State University) in understanding how patterns of crustal deformation and fracturing develop before magma can be driven to the surface. Their development will lay the foundation for improving the reliability of forecasts of eruptions at least days ahead of time. The last eruption at El Hierro occurred at least 218 years ago and the most recent eruption in the Canary Islands occurred on neighbouring La Palma in 1971. The emergency was monitored by two Spanish teams from the Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN) and the Instituto Volcanólogico de Canarias (INVOLCAN). Deformation data were kindly provided by a joint team from ITER and Grafcan, in the Canary Islands, and Nagoya University, in Japan, all of whom advise INVOLCAN. Seismic data were obtained from the IGN website. Contact: Christopher Kilburn ([email protected]) or Catherine Lowe ([email protected])

More Member Updates…

The Civil Engineering Risk & Decision Analysis (CERDA) group’s Michael Havbro Faber chaired the 11th international conference on applications of statistics and probability in civil engineering in Zurich, while Kazuyoshi Nishijima hosted a mini symposium on tropical storm risk modelling.

Simon Day from the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre presented on earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions as risks to events at the Contingency Society annual seminar.

A Post-Doctoral Research Associate (PDRA) will be appointed for three years to work in the UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction (IRDR) on a joint research initiative with the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CAFOD) and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre (ABUHC) on the project Water Risk and its Management in Bolivia's Altiplano Development Strategy.

Fig 1 El Hierro is the westernmost island of the Canarian archipelago in the Atlantic, northwest of Africa.

Fig 2 Fist-sized fragments of new volcanic rock floating in discoloured sea water confirm that a submarine eruption is in progress off the coast of El Hierro. Photo from 15 October 2011, courtesy of the Gobierno de Canarias.


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Interview

What’s the most exciting future development of interest to the re/insurance industry?

John McAneney is the director of Risk Frontiers, an independent research centre based at Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia. With expertise in quantitative risk analysis, environmental physics and boundary-layer meteorology, John talks about the Australian floods, the use of geospatial information and lessons learnt from the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami.

The wider use of geospatial information in combination with loss modeling is probably the area likely to have the biggest impact on insurance. It will help take some of the gambling out of underwriting. These tools are available now, but are still not being widely used.

Why is this area so fascinating? Risk is intrinsically fascinating. It has a quantitative side as encapsulated in loss modeling and insurance-related mathematics. On the other hand, it has important social and behavioral dimensions. How do people perceive low frequency-high consequence risks? How do you communicate these risks? Can you really change behaviour? All of these questions are interesting, important and fun to explore. Tell us about your current projects Implementation of our loss models on a new platform makes it easier for insurers to price risk, compare the likely impacts of different perils and explore how portfolios can be engineered to reduce risk. We have also been looking closely at whether or not a climate change signal is yet evident in disaster losses. The increasing losses can be explained by societal factors such as more people living in harm’s way with more to lose. For US hurricane losses our studies suggest that it might be a hundred years or more before we can confidently detect a climate change signal in the loss history. Recent disasters in our region have led to studies such as how people are recovering from the floods, the role of insurance and how insurers should deal with large concentrations of risk caused by legacy land-use planning.


What’s been your most memorable field trip? Visiting Sri Lanka and Sumatra immediately after the 2004 Boxing Day earthquake and tsunami. While the level of destruction witnessed was tragic, it was at the same time a fascinating learning experience. And exciting, especially having to live on your wits in areas that had also been war zones. Experiences like these underline the fact that our business is important: it is not just a computer exercise, but one that can and should be used to save lives and make societies more resilient against natural perils. Where are you based and what makes this a great city? Risk Frontiers is based in Sydney, Australia which my wife, Delphine, says has all the advantages of a big city along with good weather and scenery. And it is also very cosmopolitan: almost everyone seems to come from somewhere else. They can’t all be wrong! Contact: John McAneney ([email protected])

Sydney, Australia – home to Risk Frontiers

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Aon Benfield Research’s Academic and Industry Links

University College London: Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre - Europe's leading multidisciplinary academic hazard research centre, comprising geological hazards, meteorological hazards & seasonal forecasting, and disaster studies & management. Pretoria: Aon Benfield Hazard Centre - One of the leading research universities in South Africa, it serves as a harbour of information for the engineering, disaster management and insurance industries. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management - Based at Beijing Normal University, the Academy strives to be a national research base and talent center for disasters reduction, risk governance and emergency management in China. CERDA - Based at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), the Civil Engineering Risk and Decision Analysis research group focuses on natural hazard risks, impacts of climate change, engineering risks, life safety, sustainability and decision support.

ClimateWise - a global collaboration of leading insurers, facilitated by the University of Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership, focused on reducing the risks of climate change.

EuroTempest - Transforms weather forecasts and observations into the specific information required to make successful live risk management decisions.

GFZ Potsdam - National research center for Earth Sciences in Germany, investigating global geological, physical, chemical and biological processes which occur at the earth‘s surface and in its interior.


HR Wallingford - world-leading analysis, advice and support in engineering and environmental hydraulics, and in the management of water and the water environment.

Lighthill Risk Network - A not-for-profit organisation, which brings together scientific research worldwide, industry (initially Insurance), government and third party organisations in exchanging risk-related expertise.

Matrisk - a leading consulting company specializing in risk assessment and decision support for the insurance, civil engineering and offshore industries worldwide.

NTU Singapore - Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management - first multi-disciplinary catastrophe risk management research institute of its kind in Asia.

Risk Frontiers - World leader in quantitative natural hazards risk assessment and risk management supported by the Australian insurance community.

Shanghai Typhoon Institute - Part of the China Meteorological Administration, its mission is to undertake basic and applied research related to tropical cyclones and is a base for training high-level professional personnel specialized in tropical cyclone science.

Spurr Consulting - Leading global consultancy on earthquake.

Tropical Storm Risk - Unrivalled accuracy in real time mapping and prediction of tropical cyclones worldwide.

University of Cologne - Leading research centre with a long record of wind storms diagnostics, extreme weather modeling and impact assessment.

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Contact Information

About Aon Benfield

Adam Podlaha Head of International Impact Forecasting Chair of Aon Benfield Research t: +44 (0)207 522 3820 e: [email protected]

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon Corporation (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com.

Americas Steve Mildenhall CEO of Aon Benfield Analytics t: +1 312 381 5880 e: [email protected] EMEA John Moore Head of International Analytics t: +44 20 7522 3973 e: [email protected] APAC Rade Musulin COO Aon Benfield Analytics Asia Pacific t: +61296500428 e: [email protected]


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Aon Benfield 55 Bishopsgate London EC2N 3BD t +44 (0)20 7088 0044 f +44 (0)20 7575 7001 aonbenfield.com

© Aon Limited trading as Aon Benfield. All rights reserved. 2012. This document is intended as a courtesy to the recipient for general information and marketing purposes only and should not be construed as giving advice or opinions of any kind (including but not limited to insurance, tax, regulatory or legal advice) . The contents of this document are based on publicly available information and/or third party sources in respect of which Aon Benfield has no control and which have not necessarily been verified. The content of this document is made available without warranty of any kind and without any other assurance whatsoever as to its completeness or accuracy. Aon Benfield disclaims any legal or other liability to any person or organization or any other recipient of this document (together a "Recipient") for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on this document or its contents by such Recipient. Aon Benfield reserves all rights to the content of this document. Aon Benfield Research

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