Asian American Millennials - Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs

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Jun 29, 2016 - 13.7% of California's Asian Americans reside in Los Angeles ... Polled 1,608 Asian American Voters from L
Asian American Millennials: The Next Wave of Change Dr. Raphael J. Sonenshein The PBI-CalState LA Poll Cal State LA Downtown Facility

June 29, 2016

Thank You to Our Partner: Advancing Justice - LA Stewart Kwoh Daniel Ichinose Joanna Lee

Thank you to Our PBI Asian American Poll Working Group • Charlie Woo, Founder and Chair of CAUSE • Dr. Jun Xing, Dean of Undergraduate Studies at Cal State LA • Dr. Ping Yao, Director of Asian and Asian American Studies at Cal State LA • Dr. Scott Bowman, Dean of Natural and Social Sciences at Cal State LA • Dr. Gar Culbert, Professor of Political Science at Cal State LA • Susan Pinkus, PBI Polling Consultant • PBI and Cal State LA Staff • And the President and Provost of Cal State LA for supporting our polling

The Challenges of Polling Asian Americans* • Too few Asian Americans in many national surveys for valid analysis. • “Asian American” includes differing national origins.

• Language diversity may require translation of questionnaire. • Need larger overall samples, Asian American only polls, or oversampling. • *George Gao, Pew Research Center, May 11, 2016 http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/05/11/the-challenges-of-pollingasian-americans/ • AND geographic concentration: California holds the largest share of Asian Americans, which complicates national polling of Asian Americans.

How Our Poll Addresses These Challenges • Geographic concentration: Los Angeles County’s Asian American Voters • Asian Americans only: 1608 overall, with sufficient samples of four major sub groups. • Survey offered in multiple languages. • Time consuming but allows detailed analysis • Tradeoffs: Not as timely as election polls, but deeper analysis is possible

LA County: Asian American Population Asian American Population in LA County (Thousands)

U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 1500

1400

1,346,865

1300 1200

1,137,500

1100 1000

925,561

900 800 700 600 500 1990

2000

2010

Year • 30.9% of Asian Americans in the United States live in California • 13.7% of California’s Asian Americans reside in Los Angeles County.

LA County Population by National Origin Nationality

Population

Chinese

350,119

Japanese

102,287

Korean

216,501

Filipino

322,110 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010

Methodology • Polled 1,608 Asian American Voters from LA County between October 22, 2015 and January 24, 2016 • Performed via live telephone interviews in five Asian languages (Cantonese, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin, and Tagalog) and English • Results were weighted by: • Region (LA City, San Gabriel Valley, and remainder of LA County) • Ethnicity (Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, and Korean) • Age (18-44 and 45+) • Nativity (foreign vs. native born)

Asian American Voters are Very Well Educated. Education by Ethnicity Chinese HS degree, GED or less 32% College degree 49% Graduate degree 19%

Filipino Japanese Korean 22% 18% 32% 63% 53% 51% 15% 30% 18%

All 27% 52% 21%

Education by Age

HS degree, GED or less College degree Graduate degree

18-29 29% 57% 14%

30-44 17% 52% 31%

45-64 24% 55% 21%

65+ 37% 48% 15%

Total 27% 52% 21%

Younger voters have high English proficiency English Language Proficiency by Age

Very well Well Not well Not at all

18-29 83% 12% 4% 1%

30-44 64% 23% 9% 4%

45-64 46% 33% 15% 5%

65+ 28% 21% 31% 20%

Total 53% 23% 16% 8%

…as do Japanese-Americans and Filipino-Americans English Language Proficiency by Ethnicity

Very well Well Not well Not at all

Chinese 40% 24% 24% 12%

Filipino Japanese Korean 61% 87% 35% 30% 11% 21% 7% 3% 26% 2% 0% 19%

All 53% 23% 16% 8%

Religiosity is higher among older voters Religiosity by Age

Never Some/Often

18-29 46% 46%

30-44 48% 50%

45-64 40% 59%

65+ 34% 64%

All 42% 55%

…and among the foreign born Religiosity by Nativity Foreign Born Native Born Never 39% 46% Some 21% 26% Often 39% 23%

Total 42% 23% 32%

…and varies by ethnicity Religiosity by Ethnicity

Never Some Often

Chinese 58% 19% 20%

Filipino Japanese 21% 49% 18% 28% 53% 22%

Korean 32% 11% 55%

All 42% 23% 32%

Overall, the majority of voters are foreign born Nativity by Ethnicity Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean Foreign Born 63% 61% 11% 71% Native Born 37% 40% 89% 29%

All 59% 42%

….but, the younger and older voters are mirror images Nativity by Age

Foreign Born Native Born

18-29 17% 83%

30-44 52% 48%

45-64 73% 27%

65+ 79% 21%

Total 59% 42%

Most older voters follow Asian media, while most younger voters lean towards English media. Average Media Attention by Age

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total

29% 31% 40% 43% 36%

3% 12% 20% 32% 18%

11% 11% 13% 22% 15%

7% 6% 12% 29% 14%

60% 64% 49% 13% 45%

10% 16% 17% 13% 14%

11% 16% 20% 28% 20%

5% 13% 9% 6% 9%

4% 9% 13% 15% 11%

Foreign born voters rely heavily on Asian Media. Average Media Attention by Nativity

Foreign Born

34% 28%

11%

21%

37% 19% 25% 7%

Native Born

39% 5%

21%

5%

56% 7%

36% 18%

15%

14%

45% 14% 20% 9%

Total

16%

12% 11% 5% 11%

Chinese-American and Korean-American voters lean towards Asian media. Average Media Attention by Ethnicity

Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All

21% 56% 59% 30% 36%

22% 10% 6% 36% 18%

10% 23% 35% 8% 15%

23% 4% 2% 22% 14%

43% 40% 41% 47% 45%

27% 2% 4% 17% 14%

29% 21% 3% 26% 20%

10% 4% 12% 8% 9%

20% 2% 0% 19% 11%

Younger voters are most likely to talk to friends but least likely to donate money to campaigns. Average Participation Rates by Age

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total

34% 33% 36% 23% 31%

19% 22% 30% 18% 22%

71% 69% 66% 46% 62%

12% 20% 14% 9% 14%

13% 13% 12% 11% 12%

16% 23% 27% 28% 24%

National differences on participation Average Participation Rates by Ethnicity

Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean All

19% 31% 48% 23% 31%

14% 25% 33% 25% 22%

53% 59% 73% 63% 62%

9% 14% 21% 15% 14%

10% 13% 17% 9% 12%

20% 26% 34% 20% 24%

Native born voters are more likely to participate than foreign born voters. Average Participation Rates by Nativity

Foreign Born 23% Native Born 41% Total 31%

17% 30% 22%

55% 72% 62%

9% 21% 14%

9% 15% 12%

22% 28% 24%

On most issues, especially social ones, young voters are more liberal than elders. Views on Issues by Age

Support Affordable Care Act Support Legal Path to Citizenship Support for CA Min Wage Support Same-Sex Marriage Legalize Abortions Undocumenteds Help Economy Asian-Am Representative Importance Republican Party ID

18-29 77% 73% 68% 81% 68% 49% 68% 11%

30-44 67% 65% 69% 62% 67% 50% 74% 19%

45-64 64% 50% 70% 49% 57% 46% 72% 20%

65+ 56% 52% 75% 31% 40% 41% 78% 23%

All 65% 59% 71% 53% 57% 46% 73% 19%

All groups favor greater Asian American representation. Views on Issues by Ethnicity Chinese Filipino Japanese Korean Support Affordable Care Act 56% 69% 71% 71% Support Legal Path to Citizenship 46% 66% 60% 77% Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 68% 78% 67% 74% Support Same-Sex Marriage 45% 53% 80% 41% Legalize Abortions 60% 41% 76% 42% Undocumenteds Help Economy 39% 42% 50% 51% Asian-Am Representative Importance 77% 75% 67% 81% Republican Party ID 16% 24% 24% 20%

All 65% 59% 71% 54% 57% 41% 74% 19%

Native born voters are more socially liberal than foreign born voters. Views on Issues by Nativity Foreign Born Native Born Support Affordable Care Act 60% 72% Support Legal Path to Citizenship 52% 68% Support for CA Min. Wage Increase 74% 67% Support Same-Sex Marriage 38% 75% Legalize Abortions 48% 70% Undocumenteds Help Economy 44% 49% Asian-Am Representative Importance 76% 69% Republican Party ID 20% 18%

Total 65% 59% 71% 53% 57% 46% 73% 19%

No obvious gender gap. Dig deeper? Views on Issues by Gender

Support Affordable Care Act Support Legal Path to Citizenship Support for CA Min. Wage Increase Support Same-Sex Marriage Legalize Abortions Undocumenteds Help Economy Asian-Am Representative Importance Republican Party ID

Male 65% 61% 67% 56% 60% 48% 68% 22%

Female 64% 57% 75% 51% 54% 44% 80% 16%

Total 65% 59% 71% 53% 57% 46% 73% 19%

Asian American Voters Agree On • Desire for representation • Support for economic change, e.g. minimum wage

• Support for health care and immigration reform • Significant religiosity overall, even among younger voters.

A New Generation is Reshaping the Community’s Voice. • Native born • Less religious, more liberal, more Democratic • Drawing their information from English language media • More likely to talk about politics with friends and family • Becoming somewhat more like their fellow new generation in other communities.

But, the Older Generation is Still Powerful.

• 25.9% of Voters are between the ages 45 and 64 • 27.6% of Voters are 65 or older • Language is critical for political mobilization • More religious

Challenges and Opportunities for Both Parties Democrats: • Not as tuned into religiosity • Struggling to inspire younger voters, more attuned to older Democrats • Enough targeted outreach to older Asian American voters? • How to balance representation aspirations in their coalition Republicans: • More at ease with religiosity, but their policies are not popular • Rely on older voter activism, not as comfortable with younger voters • Representation issue may help Republicans

Consistent With a New National Election Poll by Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIA Vote) and Asian Americans Advancing Justice (AAAJ)

• “Inclusion, not Exclusion: Spring 2016 Asian American Voter Survey” • Survey of 1212 Asian American registered voters nationwide. • “Asian Americans are shifting in party identification toward the Democratic Party.”

• “Young Asian Americans (18 to 34) are a key demographic to watch.” Far more likely than elders to identify with Democratic party; to approve of President Obama; and to support Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton.

Join the Conversation! Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs Cal State LA 5151 State University Drive Los Angeles, California 90032 #PBIAsianAmPoll www.PatBrownInstitute.org PatBrownInstitute PBI tiny.cc/patbrowninstitute