August 19, 2016 - Deborah Weinswig

August 19, 2016

August 19, 2016

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This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” highlights the US Fung Global Retail & Technology team’s participation in the MAGIC trade show in Las Vegas this week, as well as our key takeaways from the event.

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For a limited time, McDonald’s will be giving away fitness trackers with Happy Meals, replacing the plastic figurine or toy that is typically included. The fitness trackers will come in six colors and will count steps and blink according to how quickly the wearer is moving.

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In pursuit of a more modern and flexible business intelligence system, German discount chain Lidl is currently spending millions on new IT systems that reportedly can optimize its product range, pricing, consumer communication and discounts.

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Many Thai firms are investing heavily in healthcare for the aging population, as Thailand will see those over 60 account for more than 15% of its total population by the end of 2016. CT Asia Robotics offers an elderly care robot, Dinsow, that can keep track of elderly consumers’ medication, video-phone their relatives, exercise together with them and even entertain them with karaoke skills.

DEBORA H W EINSWIG MA N A G IN G D IR EC T OR FU N G G LOB AL R ETA I L & T EC H N OL OG Y d ebo ra h we in s w ig @ f un g 19 37. c om US : 64 6 .8 39. 701 7 H K : 8 52. 61 19. 17 79 C H N : 8 6. 186 .1 4 20. 301 6

STAT OF THE WEEK

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40%

About 40% of Chinese consumers’ luxury spending happened overseas in the first half of 2016, but that represented a drop of 5% from last year. Meanwhile, luxury spending inside China rose by 5%. ContactLab attributes this to a more global pricing strategy by luxury retailers. Chinese luxury spending is rising in Europe, Japan and South Korea.

Digital Sports Viewership Among Olympic Fans, as of 2Q16, by Device

80.0% Share of Respondents

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CHART OF THE WEEK

70%

70.0%

63%

60.0% 45%

50.0% 40.0%

25%

30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Any device

Mobile

Tablet

Source: ContactLab

PC/laptop

Source: Nielsen/Fung Global Retail & Technology

DEBORAH WEINSWIG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

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August 19, 2016 FROM THE DESK OF DEBORAH WEINSWIG There Is Magic in Las Vegas Again! This week, the Fung Global Retail & Technology team attended the MAGIC trade show, which is held in Las Vegas twice a year, in February and August. Initially, MAGIC exclusively focused on menswear, but the event’s scope has been expanded and the producers now call it the world’s largest fashion marketplace. In addition to menswear, the show now features areas devoted womenswear, clothing for juniors and children, footwear, accessories, and resources, among others. Fung Global Retail & Technology and First Insight cohosted a Breakfast with The Disruptors event at PROJECT, one of the exposition areas at MAGIC, in conjunction with P1VOT, which is a new show floor area highlighting innovative, tech-based business solutions for designers and retailers. In advance of this event, we teamed with First Insight to conduct a survey designed to gauge retail industry opinion on the holiday 2016 season—and the outlook is positive. The breakfast panel discussion centered on the menswear market and covered a wide range of topics, including “The Consumer Is Not Brand Loyal, but How Can Retailers Take Advantage of That?”; “Pricing Down in the Men’s Category; Retailers Have to be Creative in Communicating the Value Message”; and “The Tie Is Not Dead; Men Taking More Risks in Fashion.” The Fung Global Retail & Technology team compiled 10 key takeaways from the MAGIC show: Influencers are enhancing the buy-now, wear-now fashion cycle. Influencers are becoming even more important to brands’ marketing strategies, and as the fashion cycle shortens, consumers are seeking alternative sources for style inspiration. Snapchat is the new Instagram. Social media was a hot topic at the trade show. Instagram has long been touted as the best social media platform for fashion brands and retailers, but panelists at our Disruptors breakfast event highlighted the importance of Snapchat and Instagram Stories for brands and influencers. The power balance between brands and retailers is shifting. E-commerce is giving brands more control of their distribution and more brands are operating their own stores, which heaps pressure on department stores to offer a compelling experience to consumers. Department stores are focusing on quality, not quantity. There have been recent announcements of departmentstore closures, which will allow the affected companies to focus more of their time and energy on fewer stores and make a more dramatic impact with their overall offering. Under Armour is at the forefront of automated manufacturing and smart fabrics. The company sees the ability to respond to customers’ needs and wants by manufacturing in local markets as crucial to the future of retail, and so is working to develop new technologies related to manufacturing automation. It is also a leader in the development of smart fabrics. Retailers continue to seek celebrity partnerships. At FN Platform, the footwear expo at MAGIC, pop star Katy Perry debuted her new shoe line with Global Brands Group. The line reflects her whimsical style and features automobileinspired elements and colorful stars. 3D printing, design and scanning: the new roadmap to the footwear of the future. The footwear industry is innovating using 3D printing, 3D design and 3D scanning. Printed fashion is becoming less futuristic and more of a reality. Loyalty programs and customer service are key in changing the retail environment. Customer loyalty programs and exquisite customer service can drive revenue, as 10% of loyal store traffic represents 50% of revenue, while 45% of nonloyal store traffic generates only 5% of revenue. Returns and reverse logistics are increasingly becoming an issue for retailers. In-store and online returns hit an alltime high of $284 billion last year and were up 6.2% year over year. E-commerce returns totaled 33%, apparel returns totaled 60% and brick-and-mortar returns remained steady. Consumers are willing to buy more at full price. Consumers are willing to spend more on classic, timeless pieces because they believe they will get more wear out of them, according to panelists. The Fung Global Retail & Technology team is looking forward to publishing additional reports about other key trade shows and events throughout the year.


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August 19, 2016

WEINSWIG’S WATCH ING

This week, the US Fung Global Retail & Technology team attended the MAGIC trade show in Las Vegas, NV and the JCPenny Analyst meeting in Dallas, TX.

US RETAIL EARNINGS

Revenues (USD Mil.) 2016

YoY % Change

Company

Period

American Eagle Outfitters

2015

Q2 2017

823

797

Coty

Q4 2016

1,076

1,020

Dick's Sporting Goods

Q2 2017

1,968

Dillard's

Q2 2017

Gap

Q2 2017

Home Depot L Brands

Gross Margin (%)

Change (bps)

Net Income (USD Mil.)

2016

2015

3.2

37.3

35.7

5.5

56.7

59.4

1,823

7.9

30.4

30.4

(1)

1,489

1,551

(4.0)

33.3

34.2

(94)

3,851

3,898

(1.2)

37.3

37.4

(9)

Q2 2017

26,472

24,829

6.6

33.7

33.7

3

2,441

Q2 2017

2,890

2,765

4.5

38.5

40.3

(178)

252

Lowe's

Q2 2017

18,260

17,348

5.3

34.4

34.5

(4)

Ross Stores

Q2 2017

3,181

2,968

7.2

29.2

28.6

Target

Q2 2017

16,169

17,427

(7.2)

31.3

TJX Companies

Q2 2017

7,882

7,364

7.0

Urban Outfitters

Q2 2017

891

867

Walmart

Q2 2017

120,854

120,229

Store Fleet EOP

YoY % Change

2016

2015

159

42

33

(267)

(31)

21

91

91

0.6

12

30

(59.6)

294

297

125

219

(42.9)

3,730

3,751

2,234

9.3

2,275

2,270

202

25.0

3,792

3,652

1,167

1,126

3.6

2,108

1,846

61

282

259

9.0

1,501

1,424

30.8

49

680

753

(9.7)

1,797

1,799

29.4

29.1

30

562

549

2.3

3,675

3,461

2.7

38.5

36.7

179

77

67

15.1

588

556

0.5

26.0

25.1

86

3,773

3,475

8.6

11,539

11,532

2016

2015

25.0

1,202

1,171

(247.6)

—

—

747

709

Source: Company reports

US RETAIL & TECH HEADLINES Rent the Runway Uses Employees and Snapchat to Find Customers the Right Fit (August 15) Glossy • Two weeks ago, Rent the Runway began using Snapchat and a team of 250 employees to help customers find the right fit. When the company receives a request, the employee who most resembles the customer models dresses over Snapchat to help ensure the customer gets the best fit possible before ordering. • Rent the Runway says the entire interaction should take only about 10 minutes, but that getting dresses from the warehouse takes about a day. With a typical rental window of four days, customers do not have time to make returns. Since launching the service, Rent the Runway has received about 25 inquiries per week. US E-Commerce Posts Its Largest Gain in Nearly Two Years (August 16) Internet Retailer • E-commerce sales were up 15.8% year over year in the second quarter, according to the US Department of Commerce. Online sales reached $91.24 billion in the quarter, representing the greatest year-over-year growth since the third quarter of 2014. • Excluding items not typically bought online, such as autos and fuel, e-commerce represented about 10.9% of total nonadjusted retail sales during the second quarter, up slightly from 10.8% a year ago, according to Internet Retailer. Millennials Will Be the Last Globalized Generation (August 16) Forbes • While globalization has been a big topic over the last 50 years, shopping local is the new attraction. Local farmers’ markets and 3D printing are bringing consumers full circle, transitioning them back to local goods.


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August 19, 2016 • Renewable energy, 3D printing, virtual reality and indoor agriculture are all contributing to this transition. Ultimately, technology may nudge the world away from globalization as societies rely on new manufacturing techniques and labor sources—such as robots—to reduce costs. McDonald’s Serving Up Fitness Trackers in Happy Meals (August 17) USA Today • For a limited time, McDonald’s will be giving away fitness trackers with Happy Meals, replacing the plastic figurine or toy that is typically included. The fitness tracker will come in six colors and will count steps and blink according to how quickly the wearer is moving. • This changeup is in response to critics who say the company is pushing junk food to kids. The promotion is aimed at getting kids to be active and lead a healthy lifestyle.

EUROPE RETAIL EARNINGS

Company

Period

Kingfisher

2Q E Jul 31

Revenues (USD Mil.) 2016 4,226

Change in USD (%)

Change in Reporting Currency (%)

2015 4,336

Gross Margin (%) 2016

(2.5)

8.4

N/A

Change (bps)

2015 N/A

Net Income (USD Mil.) 2016

N/A

N/A

YoY % Change

2015 N/A

N/A

Store Fleet EOP 2016

2015

N/A

1,178

Source: Company reports

EUROPE RETAIL HEADLINES Germany’s Lidl Invests in Consumer Analysis (August 12) Retaildetail.eu • In pursuit of a more modern and flexible business intelligence system, German discount chain Lidl is currently spending millions on new IT systems that can analyze consumer data. • Lidl’s goal is reportedly to optimize its product range, pricing, consumer communication and discounts in order to gain an edge over rivals. John Lewis Plans to Help Local Producers (August 16) Retailgazette.co.uk • UK department store John Lewis has announced a project, named Locally Made, through which it will dedicate portions of its stores to locally designed and manufactured products. • Starting in the city of Leeds, the project will see 120 products from within 30 miles stocked instore. In the coming months, John Lewis intends to expand the project across the UK, including to stores in Edinburgh, Cardiff and London. Morrisons to Divert 1,000 Head Office Staff Due to Expected Consumer Influx (August 8) Retail-week.com • UK supermarket chain Morrisons is moving head office staff into stores, reportedly to cope with an expected heatwave-driven rush of customers. The move will see lawyers and IT staff working registers and stocking shelves, giving the retailer an extra 8,000 hours of service in stores. • Morrisons, Britain’s fourth-largest supermarket, forecasts it will sell 42,000 burger buns and 70,000 bottles of water over the coming days, and that ice lolly sales will rise by 250%. Steinhoff’s Increased Bid Accepted by Poundland (August 11) Retail-week.com • British discount chain Poundland has accepted an increased offer from South African retail group Steinhoff. The group upped its offer by 5 pence, to 225 pence per share, valuing the business at £610.4 million (US$795 million). This follows pressure from shareholder Elliott Advisors, which built its stake in the discount retailer last month.


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August 19, 2016 • Poundland’s directors have said that the revised amount is “fair and reasonable.” Post-Brexit-Vote UK Remains Attractive to Zalando (August 11) UK.reuters.com • Europe’s largest online-only fashion retailer, Zalando, sees growing opportunities in Britain, according to managing board member Rubin Ritter. However, the UK contributes only a “very small” share of the company’s total sales, he noted in a recent conference call. • Ritter said that the UK’s vote to leave the EU had not changed Zalando’s strategy in the country and that the company still perceives it as an attractive potential market. He said that Zalando has added more UK-based brands to its offering.

ASIA TECH HEADLINES Tencent Leads the Financing of Douyu TV (August 16) e27.co • Douyu TV, a runner-up in China’s live-streaming market, announced that it has secured a series C financing round of ¥1.5 billion (US$226 million), led by Tencent and Phoenix Capital. • Six of the 10 most popular games in the first half of 2016 are produced by Tencent, which has been actively investing in gaming-related business. China’s mobile-gaming industry generated ¥29 billion (US$4.4 billion) in revenue in the first two quarters of this year. India’s Fund to Invest in Oil and Gas Startups (August 15) TechinAsia • Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, an Indian multinational oil and gas company owned by the government, announced its plan to invest in startups with a US$15 million fund. The company will provide seed capital, mentoring and connections to participating startups. • The Indian government will be looking at more oil and gas startups in the near future, after having seen the growth of the shale oil sector in the US. Thailand’s Firms Produce Robots for Aging Population (August 15) Reuters • Many Thai firms are investing heavily in healthcare for the aging population, as Thailand will see those over 60 account for more than 15% of the total population by the end of 2016. This figure is estimated to reach 20% by 2020. • CT Asia Robotics is one of these companies. Its elderly care robot, Dinsow, can keep track of elderly consumers’ medication, video-phone their relatives, exercise together with them and even entertain them with karaoke skills. SK Telecom Collaborates with Verizon to Codevelop 5G Specifications (August 15) ZDNet • SK Telecom, South Korea’s largest mobile carrier, announced it will collaborate with Verizon, the US’s biggest telco, to develop 5G technical specifications together. • The companies will cooperate in areas that include the Open Computer Project, which is focused on redesigning hardware tech to better support computing infrastructure, and Mobile Central Office Rearchitected as a Datacenter.

LATAM RETAIL HEADLINES Walmex Agrees to Sell Suburbia Clothing Chain to Liverpool for US$1 Billion (August 10) Bloomberg • Walmart’s Mexican division (Walmex) agreed to sell its Suburbia clothing chain to El Puerto de Liverpool, the largest department-store operator in Mexico, for MXN 19 billion (US$1.0 billion) in cash, the assumption of debt and an earn-out after the deal closes.


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August 19, 2016 • The deal covers 119 stores, and Liverpool will have to pay rent to Walmex on 34 locations where the two companies’ stores are located next to each other. Walmex no longer considers the Suburbia business a core part of its discount retail and grocery stores. Brazil’s Economy Grows in June as Confidence Improves (August 13) The Salt Lake Tribune • The Brazilian central bank’s economic activity index, a proxy for GDP, marked its best performance since December 2014 when it rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.23% in June from May, after falling a revised 0.45% in May. Bloomberg had reported a consensus estimate of 0.2% growth. • Financial markets have risen on the hope that the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff will be decided in August, freeing acting President Michel Temer to enact reforms and attract investment. Lojas Americanas Beats Profit Estimates in Second Quarter (August 12) Bloomberg • Lojas Americanas, Brazil’s largest publicly traded retailer, reported second-quarter EBITDA of R$453 million (US$143 million) on flat revenues, exceeding estimates of R$377 million (US$118 million) from Itaú and R$390 million (US$122 million) from Credit Suisse. • The company is focusing on logistics and private-label products to improve margins, and benefited from the timing of the Easter holiday this year as well as from its product diversity. E-Commerce in Brazil Continues to Grow Despite Economic Situation (August 14) PracticalEcommerce.com • According to Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry, 59% of Brazilians have experienced a loss in purchasing power, and the country’s slowing economy has affected overall growth projections of online sales in Latin America. Retail sales growth in Latin America slipped from 5.5% in 2014 to 5.0% in 2016, according to eMarketer. • Still, Brazilians have not stopped buying completely—they are just more cautious and are searching online for more information, comparing prices and features before deciding to buy a product or service. In the first quarter of 2016, revenue from e-commerce reached R$9.75 billion (US$3.14 billion), representing roughly 106 million products, according to research firm E-bit. Some Private-Equity Firms Undaunted by Brazil’s Recession (August 15) Bloomberg • US private-equity firm General Atlantic has already invested more than R$1 billion (US$318 million) in Brazil this year, and it plans to keep investing despite valuations “that are not cheap.” • The firm is targeting companies in unregulated industries that focus on middle-class and upperclass consumers, such as brokerage XP Investimentos CCTVM and drugstore chain Pague Menos. General Atlantic is passing on infrastructure deals despite the new opportunities that have been created following the Operation Car Wash corruption investigation at Petrobrás.


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August 19, 2016

EARNINGS CALENDAR

Sales (Mil.) Date

Estée Lauder (EL)

4Q16

Aug 19

2,661

Foot Locker (FL)

2Q17

Aug 19

Stein Mart (SMRT)

2Q17

Burlington Stores (BURL)

LY Actual

Currency

2,524

0.40

0.40

USD

1,764

1,695

0.90

0.84

USD

Aug 19

326

312

0.07

0.09

USD

2Q17

Aug 23 (E)

1,243

1,152

0.30

0.14

USD

Westfield (WFD.AU)

1H16

Aug 23

651

532

0.16

0.22

USD

Express (EXPR)

2Q17

520

536

0.17

0.26

USD

Guess (GES)

2Q17

Aug 24

551

546

0.06

0.27

USD

PVH Corp. (PVH)

2Q17

Aug 24

1,935

1,864

1.29

1.38

USD

Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

2Q17

0.58

0.58

USD

Dollar General (DG)

2Q17

Aug 25

5,498

5,096

1.09

0.95

USD

Dollar Tree (DLTR)

2Q17

Aug 25

5,094

3,011

0.74

0.50

USD

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA)

2Q17

936

991

0.72

0.86

USD

2Q17

Aug 25

1,057

877

1.39

1.16

USD

Woolworths (WOW.AU)

FY16

Aug 25

58,933

60,868

1.22

1.75

AUD

Prada (1913.HK) Global Brands Group (787.HK)

2Q17

Aug 26

950

996

0.04

0.05

EUR

1H16

Aug 28 (E)

1,474

1,282

0.00

(0.01)

USD

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)

2Q17

Aug 30

818

(0.20)

0.14

USD

Chico’s FAS (CHS)

2Q17

Aug 30

633

680

0.22

0.26

USD

DSW (DSW)

2Q17

Aug 30

657

627

0.30

0.42

USD

Five Below (FIVE)

2Q17

Aug 31

219

182

0.17

0.13

USD

G-III Apparel Group (GIII) Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO)

2Q17

Aug 31 (E)

485

474

0.18

0.27

USD

1Q17

Sep 1 (E)

8,858

8,980

0.57

0.53

USD

Sears (SHLD)

2Q17

Sep 1 (E)

5,433

6,211

(3.48)

(2.40)

USD

Vera Bradley (VRA)

2Q17

Sep 1

118

121

0.13

0.15

USD

Aug 24

Aug 24

Aug 25

Consensus TY

EPS Consensus TY

Company

Earnings Release Period

1,167

784

LY Actual

1,127


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August 19, 2016

EVENT CALENDAR Event ICSC Florida Conference & Deal Making LATAM Retail Show 2016 Congress & Expo Innovation Enterprise Wearable Tech in Sport Summit Multicultural Retail 360 Summit ICSC Western Conference & Deal Making Connected Health Summit

Fung Global Presenting/ Attending

Location

Date(s)

Orlando, FL

Aug 21–23

São Paulo, Brazil

Aug 23–25

San Francisco, CA

Aug 24–25

San Diego, CA

Aug 24–26

San Diego, CA

Aug 30–Sep 1

San Diego, CA

Aug 30–Sep 1

Bogotá, Colombia

Sep 1

Berlin, Germany

Sep 4

New York, NY

Sep 7–8

New York, NY

Sep 7–8

√

NRF Retail Industry Leaders Dinner New York Fashion Week

Dallas, TX

Sep 8

New York, NY

Sep 8–15

MOBX 2016

Berlin, Germany

Sep 9

E-Commerce Paris International Retail Design Conference Pepcom Holiday Spectacular! East

Paris, France

Sep 12–14

Montreal, Canada

Sep 13–15

New York, NY

Sep 15

ONA16

Denver, CO

Sep 15–17

London, UK

Sep 16–20

San Jose, CA

Sep 20–22

New York, NY

Sep 21–22

Milan, Italy

Sep 21–27

Brooklyn, NY

Sep 22–24

√

New York, NY

Sep 25–27

Vanity Capital Conference Shop.org Retail’s Digital Summit

Paris, France

Sep 26–27

√

Dallas, TX

Sep 26–28

√

Paris Fashion Week

Paris, France

Sep 27–Oct 5

√

London, UK

Sep 29

Amsterdam, Netherlands

Oct 3–8

Fort Lauderdale, FL

Oct 5–7

Anaheim, CA

Oct 5–8

Baltimore, MD

Oct 6

Lawrence, MA

Oct 6

eCommerce Day Bogotá Pepcom DigitalFocus Global @ IFA MakeUp in New York

Goldman Sachs Annual Global Retail Conference

London Fashion Week CTA Innovate! and Celebrate

WWD Digital Forum New York Milan Fashion Week design:retail Forum

ICSC VRN Fall Outlet Convention

Hermes Retail Week Supply Chain Awards Amsterdam eWeek 2016 Apparel Executive Forum ITEXPO

Barcoding, Inc. Executive Forum AAFA’s Footwear Workshop


√

√

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August 19, 2016 Deborah Weinswig, CPA Managing Director Fung Global Retail & Technology New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: 852.6119.1779 China: 86.186.1420.3016 [email protected] Amanda Byrne Marketing Associate Rachael Dimit Research Associate John Harmon, CFA Senior Analyst John Mercer Senior Analyst Kiril Popov Senior Analyst Steven Winnick Research Associate

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