Department of Health

Australia’s Future Health Workforce – Emergency Medicine

November 2017

Page | i

Contents Tables ............................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 1 Key considerations ............................................................................................................ 1 Key findings ...................................................................................................................... 2 Supply and demand projections .................................................................................... 2 Training program........................................................................................................... 3 Capacity and distribution for vocational training .......................................................... 3 Recommendations: ............................................................................................................ 3 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 5 Background ....................................................................................................................... 6 Determining the Future Capacity for Training Needs ...................................................... 6 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 8 Ongoing monitoring ...................................................................................................... 9 Current workforce status ................................................................................................... 9 Registration, accreditation and specialty fields ............................................................. 9 Current trainee status ...................................................................................................... 17 Fellowship program..................................................................................................... 17 Prevocational intentions .............................................................................................. 22 Summary of total workforce by remoteness classification ......................................... 23 Workforce projections .................................................................................................... 24 Supply.......................................................................................................................... 24 Demand ....................................................................................................................... 24 Projection results ............................................................................................................. 25 Sensitivity .................................................................................................................... 25 Interpretation of results for workforce position .......................................................... 25 Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 25 Scenario 1 - Dynamic intake baseline scenario ........................................................... 25 Scenario 2: Static intake scenario................................................................................ 26 Scenario 3: FACEM rostering scenario ...................................................................... 27 Scenario 4: Intentions to reduce hours and leave clinical practice ............................. 28 Training Analysis Pipeline (TAP) .................................................................................. 28 Results of pipelining...............................................................................................