Australia's Future Health Workforce ... - Department of Health

reduction in new trainee intake, there would still be an oversupply of 1,383 trainees (or 60 percent) by 2030. ... Specialist Training Program as of 2018 (December 2018 for New Zealand and February 2019 for Australian ...... 1415 1420 1436 1460 1492 1532 1577 1628 1685 1747 1813 1885 1961 2042 2127 2217.
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Department of Health

Australia’s Future Health Workforce – Emergency Medicine

November 2017

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Contents Tables ............................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 1 Key considerations ............................................................................................................ 1 Key findings ...................................................................................................................... 2 Supply and demand projections .................................................................................... 2 Training program........................................................................................................... 3 Capacity and distribution for vocational training .......................................................... 3 Recommendations: ............................................................................................................ 3 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 5 Background ....................................................................................................................... 6 Determining the Future Capacity for Training Needs ...................................................... 6 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 8 Ongoing monitoring ...................................................................................................... 9 Current workforce status ................................................................................................... 9 Registration, accreditation and specialty fields ............................................................. 9 Current trainee status ...................................................................................................... 17 Fellowship program..................................................................................................... 17 Prevocational intentions .............................................................................................. 22 Summary of total workforce by remoteness classification ......................................... 23 Workforce projections .................................................................................................... 24 Supply.......................................................................................................................... 24 Demand ....................................................................................................................... 24 Projection results ............................................................................................................. 25 Sensitivity .................................................................................................................... 25 Interpretation of results for workforce position .......................................................... 25 Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 25 Scenario 1 - Dynamic intake baseline scenario ........................................................... 25 Scenario 2: Static intake scenario................................................................................ 26 Scenario 3: FACEM rostering scenario ...................................................................... 27 Scenario 4: Intentions to reduce hours and leave clinical practice ............................. 28 Training Analysis Pipeline (TAP) .................................................................................. 28 Results of pipelining...............................................................................................