Feb 2, 2018 - TVS reported splendid domestic as well as exports numbers as the new launch of Apache is doing well in dom
2
nd
February 2018
Auto-Roundup January 2018
In top gear! January is seasonally a strong month for auto sales wherein customers who postpone their buying in December start buying again. But this year, December was exceptionally strong. January sales numbers were stronger yoy as well as sequentially as demand in all the segments remained buoyant. Hero Moto Corp got back to >6 lakh number once again after weak December. Bajaj deserves a special applause as this has been one of the highest growths since 2-3 years. New geographies like Iran and Turkey have also provided the necessary impetus for Bajaj Auto. TVS reported splendid domestic as well as exports numbers as the new launch of Apache is doing well in domestic markets and we learned that Nigeria, one of the biggest exports markets for Indian two wheeler makers is back on track of revival. On the 3W business segment, new permits opening in Maharashtra and other states like Delhi and Karnataka have led to a surge in domestic 3W sales. Even in the exports markets revival in African markets is leading to good 3W numbers. On the PV side, MSIL reported. soft growth as fuel prices moved up. M&M, on the other hand has reported robust set of numbers across the segments. FES segment outperformed this month with a 37.5% growth. ALL and TaMo both reported solid CV growth on low base.and macro level recovery. Even sequentially they reported good growth despite the bump up we st witnessed in December due to implementation of AC/blowers in MHCV from 1 of January. Among the 2W pack, we like Hero (55% of rural volumes) which is a proxy to the rural story and is expected to pan out well on good monsoons, new launches, 7th Pay Commission and slurry of new launches as announced by the management. Bajaj Auto stock looks better on valuations as well as good volume demand coming up with recent launch of Dominar and another higher cc bike. TVS has been posting excellent sales performance but the double digit operating margins still look illusive, which is our major concern. We like MSIL on its sheer market leadership strength, new launches in the UV and the premium car segment, its image of a car made for India, solid distribution network and lesser impacted due to DeMon and BS III ban. With its recent new launches like Baleno, Vitarra Brezza, Super Carry LCV and Ignis hatchback, we remain sanguine on MSIL. We like Ashok Leyland as it’s a prime beneficiary of the CV cycle up move, which has already started to look up on expected good monsoons and infra cycle pick up. FES segment and strong subsidiary valuation will assist M&M to grow well from these levels, though UVs will disappoint on and off till new launches arrive. Viewing strong domestic sales and JLR strength, we like Tata Motors. The most interesting driver for the industry will be the upcoming launches of the Electric Vehicles and the race for gaining market share in that segment. It can be anybody’s game in the coming years.… Jan-18
Dec-17
% mom
Jan-17
% yoy
Hero Motocorp
641,501
472,731
35.7%
487,088
31.7%
Bajaj Auto
353,147
292,547
20.7%
241,917
46.0%
TVS
271,801
256,909
5.8%
207,059
31.3%
Maruti
151,351
130,066
16.4%
144,396
4.8%
73,923
57,488
28.6%
55,295
33.7%
Auto
52,048
39,200
32.8%
39,386
32.1%
Tractors
21,875
18,288
19.6%
15,909
37.5%
Tata Motors
64,341
60,671
6.0%
46,349
38.8%
Ashok Leyland
18,101
19,253
-6.0%
14,872
21.7%
5,316
3,606
47.4%
3,652
45.6%
M&M
Escorts
Ashwin Patil
[email protected] +91 22 6635 1271
LKP Research
Auto-Roundup Hero MotoCorp: Superb set of numbers!
Hero MotoCorp (Hero)’s sales in January went up by 31.7%% yoy at 641,501 units. This was on low base of last year and continued success of its existing model portfolio, primarily Splendor, Passion, Deluxe and Glamour.
Sequentially the sales were down by 35.7%.
Going forward, we expect rural income to improve and upcoming slurry of launches mainly in the scooters business to drive volumes. Low base of H2 FY17 will further help the cause.
Total sales
Jan-18
Dec-17
% mom
Jan-17
% yoy
YTD FY18
YTD FY17
% yoy
641,501
472,731
35.7%
487,088
31.7%
6,222,787
5,529,186
12.5%
Bajaj Auto: Has the revival started?
Bajaj Auto’s total sales came in 46% and 20.7% higher yoy and mom to 353,147 units.
Domestic motorcycle sales have grown by 36.1% yoy and 44.4% mom. We believe this is on low base and success of its recently launched bikes.
Exports 2W business grew by a healthy 36.7% yoy as we believe that new geographies such as Turkey and Iran are panning out well for the company offsetting the woes in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Recent reports suggest that Nigeria has recovered from the loss which has released somewhat pressure on the company.
Total three wheeler sales went up by a humungous 113% yoy. In the domestic markets they increased by a whopping 154% yoy on opening of permits in Maharashtra, Delhi and some other states and low base of December 2016 on DeMon woes, while in the exports markets sales grew by just 71% yoy on recovery in African markets. Sequentially, 3Ws grew by 0.7%. Jan-18
Dec-17
% mom
Jan-17
% yoy
YTD FY18
YTD FY17
% yoy
Domestic
163,111
112,930
44.4%
119,803
36.1%
1,640,101
1,707,655
-4.0%
Exports
125,825
115,832
8.6%
92,021
36.7%
1,161,780
1,023,084
13.6%
Total
288,936
228,762
26.3%
211,824
36.4%
2,801,881
2,730,739
2.6%
Domestic
39,082
36,579
6.8%
15,385
154.0%
286,490
218,574
31.1%
Exports
25,129
27,206
-7.6%
14,708
70.9%
226,189
170,927
32.3%
Total
64,211
63,785
0.7%
30,093
113.4%
512,679
389,501
31.6%
Domestic
202,193
149,509
35.2%
135,188
49.6%
1,926,591
1,926,229
0.0%
Exports
150,954
143,038
5.5%
106,729
41.4%
1,387,969
1,194,011
16.2%
Total
353,147
292,547
20.7%
241,917
46.0%
3,314,560
3,120,240
6.2%
Motorcycles
3W
LKP Research
January 2018
Auto-Roundup
TVS Motor: Robust numbers once again!
TVS reported healthy sales numbers in the month at 31.3% yoy. This was 5.8% up mom.
Motorcycle sales grew by 63.7% yoy and 3.5% mom as the newly launched Apache version in the higher premium segment is gaining success.
Scooters sales grew by good 22.1% yoy on good Scooty and Jupiter sales, while mopeds were up by 9.7% yoy.
3W sales increased by 81.6% yoy. Domestic markets grew by 136.7% yoy on permits opening in three states, while 3W exports grew by 70% yoy on sharp recovery is coming in Nigeria.
Exports sales in TVS witnessed a very positive growth. Exports grew by a robust 25.5% yoy and fell by 10.5% mom to 42,802 units despite weakness in SL and Bangladesh, driven by a 19.6% yoy growth in 2Ws and 70% yoy growth in 3W. Recovery in Nigeria and strength in other African countries are the key monitorables hereon. Jan-18
Dec-17
% mom
Jan-17
% yoy
YTD FY18
YTD FY17
% yoy
Motorcycles
98,649
95,281
3.5%
60,275
63.7%
1,107,868
922,421
20.1%
Scooters
85,521
83,640
2.2%
70,049
22.1%
940,373
716,906
31.2%
Mopeds
78,825
68,709
14.7%
71,885
9.7%
722,748
761,151
-5.0%
262,995
247,630
6.2%
202,209
30.1%
2,770,989
2,400,478
15.4%
8,806
9,279
-5.1%
4,850
81.6%
78,059
58,669
33.0%
271,801
256,909
5.8%
207,059
31.3%
2,849,048
2,459,147
15.9%
42,802
47,818
-10.5%
34,110
25.5%
456,023
348,231
31.0%
2W exports
36,003
39,852
-9.7%
30,108
19.6%
390,772
300,311
30.1%
3W exports
6,799
7,966
-14.6%
4,002
69.9%
65,251
47,920
36.2%
2,007
1,313
52.9%
848
136.7%
12,808
10,749
19.2%
Total 2W 3W Total sales Exports out of the above
Domestic 3W
LKP Research
January 2018
Auto-Roundup
Maruti Suzuki: Slight slowdown..
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL)’s sales in the month of January came in at 151,351 units which at 4.8% yoy was a bit below expectations as petrol segment faltered.
The petrol/small car segment this month saw a 12.2% yoy fall, while growing by 3.6% mom.
The super compact segment comprising of Swift, Celerio, Baleno, Ignis etc grew 21.6% yoy on overall success of existing model portfolio. The newly launched Dzire contributed heavily to this growth. The new Swift will drive the growth further.
Ciaz segment sales de-grew by 22.5 % yoy and grew by 112.5% mom. Ciaz has conceded its top position in mid-size sedans segment to Honda City.
The UV segment which increased by 26.8% yoy and 7.4% mom also remained one of the main drivers of growth. Long waiting orders for Vitarra Brezza was the main contributor to this kind of growth.
The new launch of LCV Super Carry sold 1,411 units in as compared to 166 units yoy.
Exports witnessed a 2.8% yoy growth and a 0.3% mom fall. Jan-18
Dec-17
% mom
Jan-17
% yoy
YTD FY18
YTD FY17
% yoy
Mini(Alto, Wagon R)
33,316
32,146
3.6%
37,928
-12.2%
355,883
349,929
1.7%
Compact(Swift, Ritz, Celerio, Baleno, Dzire, Ignis)
67,868
53,336
27.2%
55,817
21.6%
614,377
477,149
28.8%
-
-
N/A
3,001
N/A
-
28,872
-100.0%
5,062
2,382
112.5%
6,530
-22.5%
49,695
53,644
-7.4%
106,246
87,864
20.9%
103,276
2.9%
1,019,955
909,594
12.1%
Utility Vehicles(Gypsy, Ertiga, Vitarra, S-Cross, Brezza)
20,693
19,276
7.4%
16,313
26.8%
210,671
159,567
32.0%
Vans(Omni, Eeco)
12,250
11,420
7.3%
14,179
-13.6%
129,023
126,186
2.2%
LCV (Super Carry)
1,411
726
94.4%
166
750.0%
7,369
460
1502.0%
140,600
119,286
17.9%
133,934
5.0%
1,367,018
1,195,807
14.3%
10,751
10,780
-0.3%
10,462
2.8%
102,134
102,753
-0.6%
151,351
130,066
16.4%
144,396
4.8%
1,469,152
1,298,560
13.1%
Super compact(Dzire Tour) Mid size (SX4, Ciaz) Total passenger cars
Total domestic sales Exports Total sales
LKP Research
January 2018
Auto-Roundup
Mahindra & Mahindra: A month of strong growth
Total auto sales in the month grew by 32.1% yoy to 52,048 which was a growth of 32.8% mom.
SUV segment led this growth as its sales increased by 15.7% yoy and 53.2% mom.
CV sales in the month grew by 51.2% yoy, out of which LCV >3.5 T went up by 20.4% yoy, while the LCV 37T segment, MAVs and tippers.
PV segment saw growth of 55.4% yoy as Tigor, Tiago and Hexa are performing well. Nexon launch is also getting a mammoth response assisting the company to gain the lost UV market share.
Segment(models)
Jan-18
Dec-17
% mom
Jan-17
% yoy
YTD FY18
YTD FY17
% yoy
Total CVs
39,386
40,447
-2.6%
28,521
38.1%
308,939
258,620
19.5%
Total PVs
20,055
14,180
41.4%
12,907
55.4%
149,284
125,897
18.6%
4,900
6,044
-18.9%
4,921
-0.4%
40,124
53,468
-25.0%
64,341
60,671
6.0%
46,349
38.8%
498,347
437,985
13.8%
Exports Total sales
LKP Research
January 2018
Auto-Roundup
Escorts: Consistency!
Domestic sales have grown by 47.4% yoy in January on good monsoon, healthy rabi sowing and improvement in the rural economy.
Exports reported a growth of 7.6% yoy
Total sales grew by 45.6% yoy to 5,316 units.
Domestic Exports Total
LKP Research
Jan-18
Dec-18
% mom
Jan-17
% yoy
YTD FY18
YTD FY17
% yoy
5,160
3,476
48.4%
3,507
47.1%
60,594
51,581
17.5%
156
130
20.0%
145
7.6%
1,571
879
78.7%
5,316
3,606
47.4%
3,652
45.6%
62,165
52,460
18.5%
January 2018
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