Mar 12, 2013 - Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and data warehousing will drive the next wave of ... of India, ATM
Banking
MARCH
2013
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
1
Banking
MARCH
2013
Contents Advantage India Market overview and trends Growth drivers Success stories: HDFC, Axis Bank Opportunities Useful information
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
2
MARCH
Banking
2013
Advantage India Growing demand •
•
FY25F
Innovation in services
Increase in working population and growing disposable incomes will continue to propel demand for banking and related services Rural banking is expected to witness strong growth in the future
•
Mobile and internet banking to improve operational efficiency
•
Vast un-banked population highlights scope for innovation in delivery
Total asset size: USD28.5 trillion
Advantage India Policy support
Business fundamentals
FY12 Total asset size: USD1.5 trillion
•
Rising fee incomes improving the revenue mix of banks
•
Wide policy support in the form of private sector participation and liquidity infusion
•
High net interest margins, along with low NPA levels, ensure healthy business fundamentals.
•
Healthy regulatory oversight and credible Monetary Policy by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have lent strength and stability to the country’s banking sector
Source: IBA report titled “Being five-star in productivity - Roadmap for excellence in Indian banking”, Aranca Research, Notes: NPA - Non Performing Assets
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ADVANTAGE INDIA
3
Banking
MARCH
2013
Contents Advantage India Market overview and trends Growth drivers Success stories: HDFC, Axis Bank Opportunities Useful information
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
4
Banking
MARCH
2013
Evolution of the Indian banking sector
Post 2000 1956-2000 1936 -1955
1935
1921 • Closed market
• RBI was established as the central bank of country • Quasi central banking role of Imperial Bank came to an end
• Imperial Bank expanded its network to 480 branches • In order to increase penetration in rural areas, Imperial Bank was converted into State Bank of India
• State-owned Imperial Bank of India was the only bank existing
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• Nationalisation of 14 large commercial banks in 1969 and 6 more banks in 1980 • Entry of private players such as ICICI intensifying the competition • Gradual technology upgradation in PSU banks
• Number of banks increased to-27 public sector banks, 22 private sector banks and 36 foreign banks • Advent of mobile and internet banking • Growing FDI in the Indian banking sector
Source: IBA, Aranca Research, BMI Notes: RBI - Reserve Bank of India, FDI - Foreign Direct Investment MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
5
Banking
MARCH
2013
The structure of Indian banking sector
Reserve Bank of India
Financial institutions
Banks
Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs)
Cooperative credit institutions All-India financial institutions
Public sector banks (27) Private sector banks (22) Foreign banks (36)
State-level institutions
Regional Rural Banks (RRB) (82) Other institutions Urban cooperative banks (1,674)
Rural cooperative credit institutions (96,751)
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Source: RBI, Aranca Research Note: The data on number of banks belongs to FY11 MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
6
Banking
MARCH
2013
Indian banking sector has grown at a healthy and steady pace … (1/2)
→
→
Credit off-take has been surging ahead over the past decade, aided by strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, increasing consumerism and easier access to credit
Growth in credit off-take over past few years (USD billion)
990
1,015
846
Over FY07-12, credit off-take expanded at a CAGR of 18.8 per cent (to USD990.5 billion)
695 596
→
→
Credit off take has grown at 16.7 per cent to USD1,015 billion in August 2012 as compared to USD870 billion in August 2011. Demand has grown for both corporate and retail loans.
510 418 328
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13*
Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Aranca Research; Note: CAGR: Compounded Annual Growth Rate. Note: FY13* - Figure mentioned is up to August 2012
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
7
Banking
MARCH
2013
Indian banking sector has grown at a healthy and steady pace … (2/2)
→
Deposits have grown at a CAGR of 17.6 per cent over FY07-12; in FY12 total deposits stood at USD1,265.1 billion
Growth in deposits over the past few years (USD billion) 1,349.02
→
Deposits have grown at 14.3 per cent to USD1,349.0 billion in August 2012 compared to USD1,180.7 billion in August 2011
1,265.10
1,115.66 965.67 823.46
→
Deposit growth has been mainly driven by strong growth in savings amid rising disposable income levels
→
Access to the banking system has also improved over the years due to persistent government efforts; at the same time India’s banking sector has remained stable despite global upheavals, thereby retaining public confidence over the years
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561.39
FY07
686.89
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13*
Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Aranca Research, Note: FY13* - Figure mentioned is up to August 2012
MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
8
Banking
MARCH
2013
Income from interest has seen robust growth
→
Public sector banks account for over 73 per cent of interest income in the sector →
Interest income growth in Indian banking sector (USD billion)
They lead the pack in interest income growth with a CAGR of 21.1 per cent over FY09-12
101.0 76.3
→
Overall, the interest income for the sector has grown at 19 per cent CAGR during FY09-12
63.8
56.9
17.7 6.3 FY09 Public Banks
17.3
5.9
5.5 FY10
27.9
20.2
FY11
Private Banks
7.6 FY12
Foreign Banks
Source: IBA, Aranca Research
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
9
Banking
MARCH
2013
Growth in ‘other income’ also on a positive trend
→
Public sector banks account for about 59 per cent of income other than from interest (‘other income’) →
→
‘Other income’ for public sector banks has risen at a CAGR of 5.7 per cent during FY09-12
‘Other income’ growth in Indian banking sector (USD billion) 10.2
10.5
10.0
8.9
Overall, ‘other income’ for the sector has risen at 4.5 per cent CAGR during FY09-12 4.3
3.7 3.1
Public Banks
FY10
2.3
2.3
2.1
FY09
5.1
4.3
FY11
Private Banks
FY12 Foreign Banks
Source: IBA, Aranca Research
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
10
Banking
MARCH
2013
High NIM, Low NPA place Indian banking among the world’s best … (1/2)
→
Indian banking sector enjoys healthy net interest margins (NIM) compared with global peers
→
HDFC leads the large banks with a NIM of over 4 per cent
Healthy net interest margins (FY12)
4.22%
3.85%
3.59% 2.73%
→
Prominent Chinese banks have NIM’s between 2-3 per cent, significantly lower than Indian peers
→
Despite virtually zero cost funds, the banks in the US have NIM’s comparable to Indian peers HDFC
ICICI
SBI
Axis
Source: Company reports, Aranca Research Note: HDFC - Housing Development Finance Corporation, ICICI - Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India, SBI - State Bank of India
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
11
Banking
MARCH
2013
High NIM, Low NPA place Indian banking among the world’s best … (2/2)
→
→
NPA levels
Despite the global financial crisis the net nonperforming assets (NPA) of Indian banking sector have declined over past few years.
1.28%
Although net NPA levels increased to 1.28 per cent in FY12 from 0.97 per cent in FY11, it is relatively stable 1.12%
1.02%
1.05% 1.00% 0.97%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Aranca Research
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
12
Banking
MARCH
2013
Private/foreign banks are aggressively increasing their presence … (1/2)
→
Although public sector banks continue to control majority of the banking assets, their share is gradually declining
→
Share of public sector banks in total assets have declined from 76 per cent in FY05 to 72.8 per cent in FY12
Market share of bank groups by assets
7.0%
7.0%
17.0%
20.2%
76.0%
72.8%
FY05 Public sector
Private sector
FY12 Foreign
Source: IBA statistics, Aranca Research
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
13
Banking
MARCH
2013
Private/foreign banks are aggressively increasing their presence … (2/2)
→
→
Share of public sector banks in total deposits have also declined from 78.2 per cent in FY05 to 77.5 per cent in FY12 This is largely due to the fact that foreign and private sector banks are rapidly capturing share in savings deposit
Market share of bank groups by deposits 100% 80%
4.7%
4.3%
17.1%
18.2%
78.2%
77.5%
60% 40% 20% 0% FY05 Public sector
Private sector
FY12 Foreign
Source: IBA statistics, Aranca Research
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
14
Banking
MARCH
2013
Notable trends in the Indian banking sector … (1/2) • Indian banks are increasingly focusing on adopting integrated approach to risk
management
Improved risk management practices
• Banks have already embraced the international banking supervision accord of
Basel II; interestingly, according to RBI, majority of the banks already meet capital requirements of Basel III • Most of the banks have put in place the framework for asset-liability match,
credit and derivatives risk management. • Banks are laying emphasis on diversifying the source of revenue stream to
Diversification of revenue stream
protect themselves from interest rate cycle and its impact on interest income • Focusing on increasing fee and fund based income by launching plethora of
new asset management, wealth management and treasury products • Indian banks, including public sector banks are aggressively improving their
Technological innovations
technology infrastructure to enhance customer experience and gain competitive advantage • Internet and mobile banking is gaining rapid foothold • Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and data warehousing will drive
the next wave of technology in banks Source: BCG-FICCI-IBA, Indian Banking sector 2020
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
15
Banking
MARCH
2013
Notable trends in the Indian banking sector … (2/2) • RBI has emphasised the need to focus on spreading the reach of banking
Focus on financial inclusion
services to the un-banked population of India • Indian banks are expanding their branch network in the rural areas to capture
the new business opportunity
• The increasingly dynamic business scenario and financial sophistication has
Derivatives and risk management products
increased the need for customised exotic financial products • Banks are developing Innovative financial products and advanced risk
management methods to capture the market share • With entry of foreign banks competition in the Indian banking sector has
intensified.
Consolidation
• Banks are increasingly looking at consolidation to derive greater benefits such
as enhanced synergy, cost take-outs from economies of scale, organisational efficiency, and diversification of risks
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
16
Banking
MARCH
2013
Banks reaping benefits from increased usage of technology •
Technology has allowed banks to increase their scale rapidly and manage increased business and transactions volume with lesser man power and reduced costs (at the operational level)
•
Digital analytics is providing deeper insights into customer needs and enabling banks to offer highly targeted products and services; this is likely to pick up pace in the coming years
•
New channel-integration technologies are enabling a more seamless end-to-end experience for banking customers
•
Offering new opportunities to engage and interact with customers and thereby build relationship and grow revenues; social media has a crucial role to play in this
Increasing usage of technology • •
• • •
In the last few years, technology is being increasingly used by Indian banks Banks are using technology at various levels such as, back-office processing, convergence of delivery channels, IT-enabled business process reengineering as well as communication with customers
Indian banks currently devote around 15 per cent of total spending on technology Spending on technology is expected to increase at an annual rate of 14.2 per cent. Banks in the country are set to benefit further as they move ahead in implementing additional technological advancements
Source: PWC, ‘Searching for new frontiers of growth’, Aranca Research
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MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS
17
Banking
MARCH
2013
Contents Advantage India Market overview and trends Growth drivers Success stories: HDFC, Axis Bank Opportunities Useful information
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
18
Banking
MARCH
2013
Growth drivers of Indian banking sector
Economic and demographic drivers • Favourable demographics
and rising income levels • Strong GDP growth (CAGR
of 7.7 per cent expected over 2012-17) to facilitate banking sector expansion • The sector will benefit
from structural economic stability and continued credibility of Monetary Policy
Policy support
• Extension of interest
subsidy to low cost home buyers • Simplification of KYC
norms, introduction of nofrills accounts and Kisan Credit Cards to increase rural banking penetration • RBI is considering giving
more licenses to private sector players to increase banking penetration
Infrastructure financing
• India currently spends 6
per cent of GDP on infrastructure; Planning Commission expects this fraction to grow going ahead • Banking sector is expected
to finance part of the USD1 trillion infrastructure investments in the 12th Five Year Plan, opening a huge opportunity for the sector
Technological innovation
• Technological innovation
will not only help to improve products and services but also to reach out to the masses in cost effective way • Use of alternate channels
like ATM, internet and mobile hold significant potential in India
Notes: GDP - Gross Domestic Product, KYC - Know Your Customer, RBI - Reserve Bank of India, ATM - Automated Teller Machine
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GROWTH DRIVERS
19
Banking
MARCH
2013
Housing and personal finance have been key drivers … (1/2)
→
Rapid urbanisation, decreasing household size and easier availability of home loans has been driving demand for housing
→
Credit to housing sector grew at a CAGR of 10.5 per cent during FY08-12
→
Credit deployed to housing sector as on September 2012 was at USD87.8 billion compared to USD80.8 billion for the whole of FY12
→
Demand in the low- and mid-income segments exceeds supply three-to four-fold
→
This has propelled demand for housing loan in the last few years
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Growth in credit to housing sector (USD billion)
80.8
54.2
58.2
FY08
FY09
62.7
FY10
72.1
FY11
FY12
Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Aranca Research
GROWTH DRIVERS
20
Banking
MARCH
2013
Housing and personal finance have been key drivers … (2/2)
→
Growth in disposable income has been encouraging households to raise their standard of living and boost demand for personal credit
→
Credit under personal finance segment (excluding housing) grew at a CAGR of 9.8 per cent during FY0812
→
Growth in personal finance (excluding housing) (USD billion)
79.23 70.68 54.48
58.98
59.31
FY08
FY09
FY10
Unlike some other emerging markets, credit-induced consumption is still less in India
FY11
FY12
Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Aranca Research
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GROWTH DRIVERS
21
Banking
MARCH
2013
Strong economic growth to propel banking sector expansion … (1/2)
→
Rising per capita income will lead to increase in the fraction of the Indian population that uses banking services Population in 25-60 age group is expected to grow strongly going ahead, giving further push to the number of customers in banking sector
India’s working age population and GDP per capita (USD) 700 600
2,500
Population million
2,000
500 400
1,500
300
1,000
200 500
100 0
GDP per capita USD
→
0 2001
2006 Population
2011E
2016F
GDP per capita (USD)
Source: World Bank, IMF, Aranca Research Note: E - Expected, F - Forecasted, GDP - Gross Domestic Product
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
GROWTH DRIVERS
22
Banking
MARCH
2013
Strong economic growth to propel banking sector expansion … (2/2)
→
→
→
India’s GDP is forecasted to grow at a healthy CAGR of 7.7 per cent during 2012-17 to USD2,218 billion Strong GDP growth will facilitate banking sector expansion The sector will also benefit from economic stability and credibility of Monetary Policy
Total loans: growth forecast over 2011-16 2,500
2,218
USD billion
1,775
2,000 1,431 1,173
1,500 978 1,000
858
500 2011E
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
Source: Business Monitor International Ltd (BMI), Aranca Research
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
GROWTH DRIVERS
23
Banking
MARCH
2013
Low banking penetration indicates huge latent demand … (1/2)
→
Loan/GDP vs. GDP per-capita in select countries
Despite healthy growth over the past few years, the Indian banking sector is relatively underpenetrated 350%
→
Loans-to-GDP ratio is low (62 per cent) relative to many of its emerging markets peers as well as developed economies such as the US and UK
Size of the bubble represents GDP per capita
Total loans / GDP
300%
UK
250%
Germany
200% 150%
Vietnam China Bulgaria
100%
US Estonia Hungary
Czech Republic India Turkey Poland
50% 0% 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Per-capita GDP (USD) 40,000
50,000
60,000
Source: World Bank Financial Access report 2010, IMF, Aranca Research
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GROWTH DRIVERS
24
Banking
MARCH
2013
Low banking penetration indicates huge latent demand … (2/2)
→
Limited banking penetration in India is also evident from low branch per 100,000 adults ratio
→
Branch per 100,000 adults in India stands at 747 compared to 1,065 for Brazil and 2,063 for Malaysia Deposit accounts per 1,00,000 adults 4,500
Banking penetration (deposits/ '000 adults) in India is lower than a number of peers in Emerging countries
4,000 3,500 3,000
Advanced economies
2,500 Emerging economies
2,000 1,500 1,000 500
Belgium
UK
Austria
Ireland
US
Malaysia
Turkey
Poland
Brazil
South Africa
India
0
Source: World Bank Financial Access report 2010, IMF, Aranca Research
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
GROWTH DRIVERS
25
Banking
MARCH
2013
Contents Advantage India Market overview and trends Growth drivers Success stories: HDFC, Axis Bank Opportunities Useful information
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
26
Banking
MARCH
2013
Success stories in the Indian banking sector: HDFC Bank … (1/2) HDFC Bank Net profit (USD millions)
• Established in 1994, HDFC Bank is the second largest private sector
bank in India. HDFC was amongst the first to receive an 'in principle' approval from the RBI to set up a bank in the private sector
1,076
• Divisions - Retail banking, Wholesale banking and Treasury
818
operations 614
• Size - Number of branches and extensions: 2,620* •
Number of ATMs: 10,316*
•
Number of employees: 66,076 as on March 31, 2012
•
Total Assets: USD33.76 billion*
468 238
331
FY07
FY08
• Recognition •
Best Retail Bank in India (Asian Banker:2012)
•
Best Performing Bank - Private (CNBC TV18:2011)
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Source: Company annual reports, Aranca Research Note: * - As on September 2012
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
SUCCESS STORIES: HDFC, AXIS BANK
27
Banking
MARCH
2013
Success stories in the Indian banking sector: HDFC Bank … (2/2)
Income break-up (FY12)
Advances and deposits
USD billion
51
6%
43
24% Net Interest Income 21 Fee Income 70%
35
30
41
33
26 21
13
Other Income
FY08
FY09
FY10 Advances
FY11
FY12
Deposits
Source: Company annual reports, Aranca Research
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
SUCCESS STORIES: HDFC, AXIS BANK
28
Banking
MARCH
2013
Success stories in the Indian banking sector: Axis Bank … (1/2) Axis Bank
Net profit (USD millions)
• Established in 1994, Axis Bank is the third largest private sector bank
in India. The bank is capitalised to the extent of USD86.0 million with the public holding at 54.1 per cent as on 31st March, 2012
884
• Divisions - Treasury, retail banking, corporate/wholesale banking and
other banking business
706
• Size - Number of branches and extensions: 1,741*
•
Number of ATMs: 10,297*
•
Number of employees: 31,738 as on March 31,2012
•
Total Assets: USD63 billion*
• Recognition •
Most Productive Private Sector Bank award (FIBAC: 2011)
•
3rd strongest bank in Asia Pacific region (Asian Banker: 2011)
524 378 223
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Source: Company annual reports, Aranca Research Note: FIBAC - FICCI and Indian Banks’ Association Conference * - As on September 2012
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
SUCCESS STORIES: HDFC, AXIS BANK
29
Banking
MARCH
2013
Success stories in the Indian banking sector: Axis Bank … (2/2)
Income break-up
Advances and deposits 46
USD billion
39
3% 29 24
Net Interest income
37% 60%
Fee Income
18
17
30
35
22
12
Other Income FY08
FY09
FY10 Advances
FY11
FY12
Deposits
Source: Company annual reports, Aranca Research
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
SUCCESS STORIES: HDFC, AXIS BANK
30
Banking
MARCH
2013
Contents Advantage India Market overview and trends Growth drivers Success stories: HDFC, Axis Bank Opportunities Useful information
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
31
Banking
MARCH
2013
Rising rural income pushing up demand for banking →
The real annual disposable household income in rural India is forecasted to grow at CAGR of 3.6 per cent over the next 15 years
→
The Indian agriculture, forestry & fishing sector has grown at a fast pace, clocking a CAGR of 14.2 per cent over the past seven years
→
Rising incomes are expected to enhance the need for banking services in rural areas and therefore drive the growth of the sector GDP of agriculture, forestry & fishing sector, at current prices
133
FY06
295
CAGR: 14.2 %
USD billion
151
FY07
174
FY08
Real disposable household income in rural India
265
USD
225 194
1,875
FY09
FY10
FY11 QE
FY12 RE
Source: MOSPI, Aranca Research
2010
CAGR: 3.6 %
3,229 2,667
2,167
2015
2020
2025
Source: McKinsey estimates, Aranca Research
Notes: CAGR - Compounded Annual Growth Rate QE - Quick Estimate, RE - Revised Estimate
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OPPORTUNITIES
32
Banking
MARCH
2013
Mobile banking to provide a cost effective solution →
→
Agriculture requires timely credit to enable smooth functioning. However, only one-eighth of farm households avail bank credit Local money-lending practices involve interest rates well above 30 per cent, therefore making bank credit a compelling alternative
Banking penetration is low in rural India • Of the 600,000 village habitations in India only 5 per cent have a
→
Tele-density in rural India soared to nearly 40.4 per cent in 2012* from less than 1 per cent in 2007
→
Banks, telecom providers and RBI are making efforts to make inroads into the un-banked rural India through mobile banking solutions
Soaring rural teledensity opens avenue of mobile banking %
commercial bank branch
40.36
• Only 40 per cent of the adult population has bank accounts
37.48
• Debit card holders constitute only 13 per cent of the population and
24.29
only 2 per cent have a credit card 15.2 • 51.4 per cent of nearly 89.3 million farm households do not have
access to any credit either from institutional or non-institutional sources • Only 13 per cent of farm households are availing loans from the
banks in the income bracket of < USD1000 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
0.4 2007
9.2 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
Source: TRAI, Aranca Research Note: * - As on September 2012 OPPORTUNITIES
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Banking
MARCH
2013
Mobile banking to transform the banking space Evolution of mobile banking •
•
•
•
•
Mobile banking allows customers to avail banking services on the move through their mobile phones. The growth of mobile banking could impact the banking sector significantly Mobile banking across the world is still at a primitive stage with countries like China, India and UAE taking the lead Mobile banking is especially critical for countries like India, as it promises to provide an opportunity to provide banking facilities to a previously underbanked market RBI has taken several steps to enable mobile payments, which forms an important part of mobile banking; the central bank has recently removed the transaction limit of INR50,000 and allowed banks to set their own limits Mobile banking transactions in India will cross 340 million by 2015 and would result in cost savings of approximately INR11 billion (USD230 million)
Mobile remittances
Mobile recharge
Key services provided through mobile banking
Mobile commerce
Payment of bills
Mobile banking (fund transfers, etc.)
Source: PWC, ‘Searching for new frontiers of growth’, Aranca Research
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
OPPORTUNITIES
34
Banking
MARCH
2013
Contents Advantage India Market overview and trends Growth drivers Success stories: HDFC, Axis Bank Opportunities Useful information
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
35
Banking
MARCH
2013
Industry Associations Indian Banks' Association World Trade Centre, 6th Floor Centre 1 Building, World Trade Centre Complex, Cuff Parade, Mumbai - 400 005 India E-mail:
[email protected]
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USEFUL INFORMATION
36
Banking
MARCH
2013
Glossary →
ATM: Automated Teller Machines
→
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
→
FY: Indian financial year (April to March)
→
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
→
INR: Indian Rupee
→
KYC: Know Your Customer
→
NIM: Net interest margin
→
NPA: Non-performing assets
→
RBI: Reserve Bank of India
→
USD: US Dollar →
→
Conversion rate used: USD1=INR 48
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
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USEFUL INFORMATION
37
Banking
MARCH
2013
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For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
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DISCLAIMER
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