Workspace Theory (GWT). In this explanation, our consciousness is created by pulling elements together from our memories
Foreword I have been infinitely fascinated with consciousness for as long as I can remember. The most interesting thing to me is that even today, we still don’t have definitive answers on the concept. I am a strong believer that technological advances have heavily influenced our consciousness over time and will continue to do so into the future. As the COO of Capital Innovators, I feel very fortunate that I have the opportunity to see new technologies long before they get pushed out into various markets. I have developed this book as a way to tie my interest in consciousness and technology together to highlight where we have been as a civilization, the cutting-edge technologies that are coming around the corner, and how these new technologies will enhance our consciousness and shape the future landscape of our lives. -Brian Dixon
Website: briandixon.business
@briandixon06
2
PART ONE: WHERE WE’VE BEEN
1. What Is Consciousness? You are sitting reading this - I am writing these words. But do you really exist? Or, from your point of view, do I? Take a minute and allow your mind to become “aware.” Now are you really aware or are you just perceiving something you think is awareness because you are being instructed to do so? Consciousness is a “heady” concept that philosophers have been struggling to define and understand for hundreds of years. What exactly does it mean to be a conscious being or have consciousness? Currently, Miriam Webster defines consciousness as:
a) the quality or state of being aware especially of something within oneself and b) the state or fact of being conscious of an external object, state, or fact. This is obviously a very dry, clinical definition that really doesn’t get to the essence of what, how, or why we are conscious and to what degree. To tackle this, we can turn to the philosophers. One of the first to attempt to crack the consciousness “code”– and still the reigning king of theorists – is Rene Descartes (1596–1650), a French mathematician and philosopher who came up with the enduring catch phrase: “Cogito ergo sum” - I think, therefore I am. From this basic concept, a whole school of thought has emerged – pun intended. It argues that our awareness of the world (and perhaps the world itself) is due to an inner process of the mind, which then manifests itself in the body and the world around us.
But this philosophy is woefully incomplete, and some say outdated or completely wrong. It doesn’t account for the existence of subjective consciousness (sometimes referred to the “hard problem”) or solve the mind-body problem, as in how all this works together to create our mental and physical worlds. (Descartes also didn’t believe that animals had consciousness.)
3
Other Western philosophies have since emerged to attempt to bridge these huge gaps in our understanding of the inner mind. One of the newest and most comprehensive is called Integrated Information Theory or IIT.
IIT, which was introduced by Dr. Giulio Tononi in 2004, posits that nearly everything is conscious, at least to a degree. His method of explaining consciousness attempts to explain our inner and outer worlds and experiences through their interconnectivity. These are expressed in mathematical formulas and complex ideas based around the symbol Φ (Phi), with Φ MAX being the total amount of consciousness available in a “system.” Naturally, there is a significant amount of debate, skepticism, and conjecture about IIT. 1 While I’m not going to attempt to explain how these formulas work; for our purposes, it’s enough to say this is an ambitious attempt to understand, express, and connect all the different forms and types of consciousness with mathematical expressions or “code.” In contrast, the third primary conceptual framework is perhaps the simplest. It’s called Global Workspace Theory (GWT). In this explanation, our consciousness is created by pulling elements together from our memories as well as what’s in front of us and synthesizing all the information in the present moment. A popular analogy for GWT is saying consciousness is like a play that goes on in our minds, with one actor or element highlighted, while other crucial factors, such as stagehands, are involved but hidden from view.2
But I think another appropriate way to look at it, especially for this book, is that GWT is like a computer that uses RAM as the active memory to perform complex computations in nanoseconds; what we perceive is the program itself and not its mechanizations.
There are other elements of consciousness that I feel are left out in all of these theories. First of all, there is the subconscious mind and the unconscious or dream state, almost none of which we really understand. In fact, we don’t even know why we get tired, go to sleep, and have dreams at all.3 The subconscious mind is even harder to explore because the person can really only explain what was going on after they are awake, using descriptive language that may not 1
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/can-integrated-information-theory-explainconsciousness/ 2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Workspace_Theory#The_theater_metaphor 3 https://www.newscientist.com/round-up/ten-mysteries-of-you/
4
completely capture what was going on. Have you ever struggled to remember a dream and then tried to put what happened in words?
Qualia
Another aspect of consciousness difficult to define, as well as prove, is subjective experience and sensations or images that manifest from awareness. It’s been called qualia, or “what it’s like to be” another being, and called “the hard problem” of consciousness by David Chalmers in 1995. There is an argument as to whether qualia – if it exists at all – is a mental or physical property: a thought experiment called the “philosophical zombie” imagines that there could be a zombie indistinguishable from a real human being, with the exception that it has no qualia. Because this concept can be conceived, they say, it proves qualia is of the mind. Others scoff at the notion, saying just because something can be imagined does not make it so.
But you or I cannot deny our qualia, but to prove it exists is another thing. Marvin Minsky, an early pioneer in the field of Artificial Intelligence (“A.I.”), and the inventor of the first VR headset did not believe in qualia. He felt that humans and machines were essentially the same; our emotional sensations – for example, pain, or even love – were the simplified words we use for “a complex rearrangement of our disposition of resources.” 4 As an (alleged) thinking, aware person, it’s hard to agree with Minsky, at least by following your “feelings.” There just has to be qualia – although if he’s right, we will eventually build a supercomputer that will usher in The Singularity (which I will discuss later).
There was a fascinating experiment that seems to suggest a subjective inner reality. Karl H. Pribram, a professor of psychology and psychiatry at Stanford University, conducted it. Based on an experiment carried out at the school a hundred years earlier, he outfitted several students with prism-type glasses that forced them to see the world upside-down; they were instructed to wear them for two weeks without removing them. While jarring at first, the students’ minds
4
http://www.liquisearch.com/qualia/critics_of_qualia/marvin_minsky
5
eventually righted the world. Then, when the glasses were removed, the world was once again upside-down, until the mind corrected the perception.5 “The Matrix”
Another interesting concept of mind worth noting is the possibility we are living in a state that we can’t perceive in this dimension. This idea was first bandied about by Plato in what is called the Allegory of the Cave. In it, he imagines a world where a group of humans are chained to a wall in a cave, and all they can perceive are shadows of the outside world. Where if they were to be released and see the actual reality, they would not be able to comprehend it and may wish to return to their imprisonment.6 (This was the initial idea behind the film The Matrix.)
Along these same lines is the idea that instead of being conscious beings at all, we are living in an elaborate simulation, created by our future ancestors, to re-live our history. The theory, asserted by Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom in 2003, states that if it’s possible human beings could create simulated worlds in the future, the odds would be that there would be many such simulations running concurrently. Since there would be so much more simulations than actual reality, it would, therefore, become highly probable that this life is indeed artificial. This is an idea currently championed by billionaire Elon Musk, amongst others. 7
Higher Consciousness And then there is the concept of “higher” consciousness, which could mean a connection to God or the entire cosmos. We usually think of priests, shamans, or even psychedelic drug takers that can reach this state.
One of the first books to ponder this higher state was entitled Cosmic Consciousness: A Study of the Evolution of the Human Mind by Canadian psychiatrist Maurice Bucke in 1901. In it, he defines three types of consciousness: Simple (humans and animals), Self (the inner mind), and
5
https://books.google.com/books?id=OOR7zmGq08C&pg=PT135&dq=Karl+H.+Pribram+prism+experiment&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjOqYnyqan SAhVMy1QKHRL3CeIQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=Karl%20H.%20Pribram%20prism%20experiment&f=f alse 6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegory_of_the_Cave 7 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-we-living-in-a-computer-simulation/
6
the Cosmic Consciousness, which represents a state humans cannot understand. This is all bound together, he says, by love.8 Hopefully, you are beginning to see another important aspect of consciousness – the mystical. After all, Descartes claimed that his entire life’s work regarding the philosophy of mind was presented to him in a series of dreams by a divine spirit on the night of November 10, 1619. 9 Similarly, Bucke claimed to have a mystical experience in 1872, where for a few moments he felt one with the universe. 10 Whatever happened, they clearly had inspiration from another realm that cannot be fully explained in the known universe...or put into words. The Evolution of Consciousness What we now take for granted as “consciousness” seems to have evolved over an extended period. In fact, it has been pointed out that the ancient civilizations really had no similar word. The word “consciousness” didn’t even show up in the English dictionary until the 17th century and back then had an interesting definition: It meant “sharing knowledge with another” or “being witness to something.” 11 The idea of change and growth in human consciousness is more evident when put in context with the development of technology, which we’ll explore in the next chapter.
8
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_Consciousness#Collective_consciousness https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/descartes/#PhiDev 10 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Maurice_Bucke#Cosmic_consciousness_experience 11 http://info.sjc.ox.ac.uk/scr/hacker/docs/ConsciousnessAChallenge.pdf 9
7
2. Technology and Consciousness So Far Now that we have at least a basic understanding of the many aspects of consciousness let’s turn and see how technology has altered or at least influenced it in the past. When I first started thinking about this book, I figured we should start this chapter with the introduction of radio in the early 1900s. The idea that sounds could travel long distances, pass through our minds, and create images or emotions in our head seemed to me the perfect analogy, and one of our earliest technological feats. But I quickly realized that the invention/discovery of the radio is already late in the timeline of technology and human consciousness. Perhaps, it’s more applicable to go back to the 1890s, when people first put their eyes in a Mutoscope and were transported to another environment or world. Or, better still, the introduction of the daguerreotype in 1839, which captured and preserved still images. Still too late! Maybe you could say the actual beginning is with the invention of Gutenberg’s printing press in 1440 when the ability to mass produce the written word became possible. Even that is off the mark. Indeed, when you ponder it, you can see that “technology” has been expanding and influencing our consciousness since our beginnings as a species. The technology to create fire allowed us not only to stop shivering but sparked radical changes in our existence; the same could be said with the introduction of the wheel. Suddenly, difficult or impossible tasks or journeys became monumentally easier. Language enabled us to create a communal method to communicate. Weaponry allowed humans to hunt and conquer. And so on. When looked at in this light, it’s easy to see how technology and consciousness evolved nearly in tandem. Every milestone brought about changes to the human mind and realms of experience that were likely inconceivable before and subsequently affected us in unexpected ways. It allowed us to free our minds from struggles that had consumed us in the past, which in turn opened us up to new discoveries (and new problems). The printing press spawned mass communication, which spawned the Renaissance, which spawned the philosophies of Descartes. Moving through these stages in our humanity, was hardly straightforward or easy. However, there seems to be a general pattern, which was identified by Dr. Clare W. Graves in the 1950s. Dr. Graves studied individual human beings as well as societal transitions and came up with the concept of “levels” of existence in our behavioral states that he said proved right in both the micro and the macro.
8
Initially, Dr. Graves felt human beings moved through 7 stages of consciousness or psychological maturity, both individually and as a society. However, during his study, he found an unexpected 8th stage. This theory of conscious evolution sees humans wade back and forth across a river between complexity and simplicity, between the individual and the collective; each previous state nested within. In 1974, his ideas were collected for the first time for an article in The Futurist entitled “Human Nature Prepares for a Momentous Leap,” where he states: The six subsistence levels of man's existence have as their overall goal the establishment of individual survival and dignity. Once having become reasonably secure, both physically and psychologically, in his existence, the individual becomes suddenly free to experience the wonder and interdependence of all life. But he must notice at the same time that the struggle for man's emergent individuality has imperiled the very survival of that life. Thus, just as early man at the most primitive level of subsistence... had to use what power he could command to stabilize his individual life functions… the individual who has reached the first level of being must use what knowledge he can command to stabilize the essential functions of interdependent life. Similarly... tribal man gathered together in communities to insure his individual, physical survival, and our [future man] must form communities of knowledge to insure the survival of all viable life upon this Earth. We see therefore that the six themes constantly repeat, even though man progresses from the simple statement of individual subsistence to the variation of the interdependence of life. This stately succession of themes and movements is the general pattern of the levels of existence. 12 Dr. Graves died in 1977 before he became widely known. The book he was working on entitled The Never Ending Quest wasn’t complete and wasn’t published until 2005. But I believe some of his concepts will be proven as we move into this new era, especially as to how he describes the “Future Man”: “When man finally is able to see himself and the world about him with clear cognition, he finds a picture that is far from pleasant. Visible in unmistakable clarity and devastating detail is man's failure to be what he might be and his misuse of his world. This revelation causes him to leap out in search of a way of life and system of values which will enable him to be more than a parasite leeching upon the world and all its being. He seeks a foundation for self-respect which will have a firm base in existential reality. He creates this firm basis through his G-T value system, a value system truly rooted in knowledge and cosmic reality and not in the delusions caused by animal-like needs.13” After the masses have accepted this realization, humans will move into a higher level Graves called H-U. Let’s take a look now at the current state of technology and how it has the potential to get us there. 12 13
http://www.clarewgraves.com/articles_content/1974_Futurist/1974_Futurist.html ibid.
9
PART TWO: WHERE WE ARE NOW
1.
A Bit About A.I.
Artificial intelligence (A.I.) has been proclaimed both the holy grail and harbinger of doom for human life and consciousness. The concept of building machines that had intellectual capabilities of a person has also been a dream for centuries. There are legends this has been done before: Albertus Magnus (1200-1280) was said to have a talking brass head called Android that could answer any question. 14 The machine was allegedly destroyed by his student St. Thomas of Aquinas because of its “incessant chattering.” 15 The beginnings of modern A.I. can be traced to the 1940s when Alan Turing created a theoretical concept for a machine that could compute any algorithm. Later, in the 1950s, he conceived of the Turing Test, a test that a computer would have to pass before being deemed “intelligent” – this would involve fooling a human being into thinking it was a person, and not a robot. The term “artificial intelligence” was coined in 1956 at Dartmouth by John McCarthy at the first conference dedicated to the subject. He also created the first A.I. programming language called Lisp. There was a lot of promise for A.I. up until the late 1960s/early 1970s when global funding for it began to dry up. In 1969, DARPA cut back on A.I. research and instead focused on military applications. A report prepared for the UK Parliament in 1974 concluded that the hype had far outpaced the reality. This subsequent period became known as the first “A.I. winter” (named after the concept of a nuclear winter). After a rebound in interest in the 1980s, there was a second A.I. winter from 1987-93 when expensive A.I. machines that ran Lisp were surpassed in processing power by the desktop computer. In 1991, a ten-year project was initiated by Japan to create a Fifth Generation Computer System that would be highly intelligent and completely automated ended in failure. 16 Progress through the rest of the 1990s and the early aughts was slow, but steady. Then things began to improve more rapidly. Computers began to beat humans at chess, then at Jeopardy!, and then at the ancient Chinese game Go. In 2017, for the first time, a computer beat four
14
http://www.haskins.yale.edu/featured/heads/simulacra.html http://languagehat.com/the-android-of-albertus-magnus/ 16 http://courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/projects/history-ai.pdf 15
10
humans at poker.17 These successes are thanks to a set of tools that were developed, not trying to replicate the entire human brain process, but focusing instead on different sets of problems. Machine Learning Machine learning is a type of A.I. that provides a computer with the ability to teach itself something without being specifically programmed to do so. Machine learning tries to create software that adapts to the introduction of new data. A basic example of machine learning is OCR or optical character recognition. It is the ability to recognize handwritten letters. To “teach” the machine, it is fed a bunch of different handwritten characters labeled with their corresponding letters. Based on these examples, the machine’s job is to create an algorithm that can accurately identify handwriting it hasn’t seen before. Three important rules of machine learning are: a) The more data, the better results b) The algorithm should lead to as few mistakes as possible c) The algorithm should be as simple as possible (also known as Occam’s razor) The problem in machine learning is to find the perfect balance between accuracy and complexity.18 Machine learning companies are trying to create algorithms that can monitor and protect large IT networks, deliver effective advertising messages, and even help farmers with their crops. One of the companies currently at the forefront of machine learning is Turi, a Seattle-based startup that is creating “plug and play” tools for developers and data scientists. In 2016, it was acquired by Apple for more than $200 million. Deep Learning Deep learning (also known as deep structured learning, hierarchical learning or deep machine learning) is a branch of machine learning that includes more moving parts (algorithms) to solve more complex problems. It’s analogous to (but not yet as complex) as the human brain; its components work together in “artificial neural networks.” Deep learning has enabled scientists to create machines that can teach themselves to recognize speech and faces. A notable milestone in deep learning in 2012 is when Google fed a network of 16,000 computers 10 million images taken from random YouTube videos.
17
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/01/machine-beats-humans-first-time-poker/
18
http://www.cs.princeton.edu/courses/archive/spr08/cos511/scribe_notes/0204.pdf
11
Interestingly, perhaps not surprisingly, from this data the network learned to identify cats. 19 Today, pioneers in deep learning like Nnaisense are pushing the envelope with “very” deep learning and recurrent neural networks, which are designed to help a machine learn to remember. Natural Language Processing (NLP) Natural language processing concerns itself with computers that understand human speech and make decisions based upon it. NLP programs used to be hand-coded with a hard set of rules and had limited success. With the advancement of machine learning, faster computer processing, and statistical analysis, NLP has become much more sophisticated. They have the ability to translate languages on the fly, summarize data, and answer questions. Or, in the case of “Jeopardy!” provide the question – in 2011, an IBM computer named Watson beat its human competitors to win the $1 million dollar prize. As I was writing this book, a new milestone was achieved: an A.I. computer developed by Carnegie Mellon named Libratus beat a group of human beings at a 20-day poker tournament. This is a stunning achievement because it shows the computer had learned how to strategize with incomplete information as well as how to successfully bluff its way to winning. “Imagine that your smartphone will someday be able to negotiate the best price on a new car for you. That's just the beginning,” said Frank Pfenning, head of the Computer Science Department. 20
19
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/technology/in-a-big-network-of-computers-evidence-of-machinelearning.html 20 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/01/machine-beats-humans-first-time-poker/
12
2. Hanging on the Block...chain Another important recent technological development that will be part of our conscious awakening is called blockchain. Blockchain began as a component of bitcoin, a digital currency that you may have heard of by now. Bitcoin (and blockchain) was introduced to the world in 2008 by a mysterious programmer(s) that went by the name “Satoshi Nakamoto.” In an 8-page paper entitled bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, he introduced a monetary concept whose main features were that its transactions could be direct, transparent, and irreversible. It was designed to take the middleman (i.e. the banks) out of the process of exchanging money. In recent years, bitcoin has gone from fringe currency to more mainstream acceptance. You can now access your bitcoins from specific ATM’s around the world (although you have to convert it to a “hard” currency) as well as use it to purchase a variety of goods and services. I go into much greater detail in both bitcoin and blockchain technology in my two previous books (Bitcoin Basics 101 and Block Party on the Blockchain), but much has already changed. Here, I will give a brief overview. A bitcoin (BTC) is a digital form of money that has no central bank; the market sets its rates and its influenced by its scarcity (there can be a maximum of 21 million BTC). New coins are created by “bitcoin mining,” allowing your computer to be a part of the blockchain and process transactions. For every computation, you are awarded a certain amount of BTC. A bitcoin wallet contains both a public encryption key and private key, which only the sender and receiver can use to complete a transaction (this is where the “crypto” in cryptocurrency comes from). When you send someone bitcoin, you send it to their bitcoin address with your public encryption key for verification. As with an encoded message, the receiver uses the private key to collect the funds. The exchange is noted in the blockchain – its universal ledger – and once the transaction has taken place it cannot be reversed. What is the Blockchain? The blockchain is the unalterable ledger that every bitcoin participant has access to and contains a record of every transaction, back to the very first bitcoin exchange. This means that in theory no money can be lost and gives the entire system a solid structure.
13
No longer do you need banks or outside sources to verify the exchange – it can happen almost instantly between two parties anywhere in the world. And while bitcoin itself is a revolutionary concept that has the potential to free us from a centralized monetary system, it’s the open blockchain that is becoming even more crucial to the consciousness/technological evolution we are talking about in this book. One of the first to recognize the potential of the blockchain was Vitalik Buterin, a former bitcoin programmer who saw that a decentralized, open ledger that can’t be tampered with could have unlimited potential on its own. In a 2013 whitepaper, he named his platform Ethereum, and called it the “Lego of cryptofinance.”21 A central feature of Ethereum is the ability to create “smart contracts” between people or entities in the form of a digital token, called ether. These contracts can represent digital or physical property and be enforced by a Democratic Autonomous Organization (DAO), an algorithm, that is free from human biases. Its backers dream of building and enforcing everything from a country’s constitution to a marriage contract. Other companies are now following their lead by either developing applications for Ethereum or creating their own blockchain platform. For example, Circle, a company I mentioned in The Block Party on the Blockchain, has since moved away from bitcoin entirely to focus on its own blockchain platform called Spark. Banks are beginning to experiment with a tamper-proof blockchain ledger for their transactions, albeit in a more closed environment. In 2016, blockchain technology began to take off. Bitcoin expert Andreas Antonopoulos declared ““The open blockchain will change this world...” 22 PwC expert Seamus Cushley stated that there was a $1.4 billion dollar investment in blockchain startups in the last nine months of that year.23 Whether it’s bitcoin, Ether, Spark, or some other platform not yet invented, blockchain has the potential to remove the middlemen from nearly every type of transaction. Like a Napster for everything, blockchain will allow one-to-one exchanges of data, goods, services, or money with no centralized location, complete security, and total transparency.
21
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/4/7/code-your-ownutopiameetethereumbitcoinasmostambitioussuccessor.html 22 https://news.bitcoin.com/antonopoulos-open-blockchain/ 23 https://www.siliconrepublic.com/start-ups/blockchain-pwc-investment
14
When you think of the way the world runs in terms of money or contracts, you can probably see how blockchain has the potential to disrupt a wide variety of constructs essential to our civilization. These include: Financial Applications - The buzzword “FinTech” is applied to companies creating ways to move as well as monitor money using the blockchain and DAOs. These will eventually be able to more efficiently manage stock portfolios than a human and make decisions free from emotion. International Payments - Millions of people around the world don’t have bank accounts and pay billions in fees to wire money home. Blockchain payments are instant, direct, and secure. Regulatory Compliance & Audit - Since all transactions are transparent and public, accountability is easy to administer. Breaking smart contracts could result in automatic fines. Insurance - Insurance companies and their customers can use the blockchain to buy and sell policies one-to-one or crowdfund larger policies (healthcare, car insurance) as well as process claims and mitigate risk. The open ledger can eliminate duplicates as well as automate virtually every process, lowering rates by eliminating overhead and maximizing participation.24 Peer to Peer Transactions - This can mean everything from sharing files or buying eggs. No need to show ID or pay any fees. Corporate Applications - Blockchain can monitor employee performance or eliminate unnecessary spending. It can also nurture interactivity and collaboration amongst people or departments. Supply Chain Management - The key to a well-functioning business, not to mention society as a whole, is the supply chain – getting goods from point A to point B in the most efficient manner possible. When the blockchain meets the supply chain, the technology can eliminate fraud, waste, risk, error, and inefficiency. Walmart is planning to experiment with blockchain, rolling out the technology to track Chinese pork and U.S. produce in 2017.25
24
http://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-p2p-insurance-models/ https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/walmart-testing-blockchain-technology-for-supply-chainmanagement-1482354996/ 25
15
Healthcare - accessibility, portability and security of medical records has long been an Achilles heel of the Healthcare industry. Blockchain has the potential to create a secure network that both doctors and patients can use to monitor or input information. The technology has radical implications for clinical trials; not only is all data verifiable and transparent, but new sources of data such as the Internet of Things can allow for analyses on a global scale. Medical insurance can be sold and administered easily and inexpensively. Real Estate - Real estate contracts are complicated matters that involve escrows, real estate agents, appraisers, and more. Blockchain could make the process of buying and selling much easier, including issuing credit and transferring titles. Media - Blockchain technology has significant implications for creative artists as well as media companies. The permanent ledger of the blockchain could be used to identify and enforce copyrights and intellectual property. It could also be used to set up a reliable system of micropayments to newspapers, magazines, or copyright holders that could replace the revenue stream destroyed by piracy. 26 Energy - The peer-to-peer abilities of the blockchain can be used to buy, sell, or share energy. Startups are now exploring the ability of neighbors to share/trade solar energy in “microgrids” that could scale to become its own self-sufficient energy internet. Government Applications - Transparency, accountability, efficiency. Perhaps you are now beginning to see the wider implications of the blockchain, particularly in government. The blockchain could be used for such things as record management and identity verification. Together, these could all more direct secure voting as well as paying taxes. It could make sure all transactions are above-the-board, and not subject to backroom meetings or secret deals. Legislation - There could be a day when pieces of self-enacting code replace complex laws or lengthy legal contracts. Eventually, there won’t be an area of our lives that is not in some way connected to the blockchain. Anti-Money Laundering, Fraud - In the early days of bitcoin, the electronic currency was seen as being attractive to the underworld because of the ability to have anonymity
26
https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-en/focus/signals-for-strategists/trends-blockchain-bitcoin-securitytransparency.htm
16
between buyer and seller. The dark web portal Silk Road was notorious for selling all manner of drugs and illicit goods until it was shut down in 2013. 27 However, many believe that blockchain can be used to prevent money laundering. An article published by the Bipartisan Policy Center in 2016 stated the distributed ledger of blockchain “could give banks and regulators access to far more detailed transactional and cross-institutional data than is currently available, allowing them to peer deeper into financial networks to identify bad actors.”28 It’s this concept of open blockchain system that will be a foundational component of the coming consciousness revolution. This is because it will allow us to become more direct in our connections and transactions, cutting out all the fraud and bureaucracy that has plagued us for centuries. It will also help us create a new system of distribution that can empower us all.
27 28
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road_(marketplace) http://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/blockchain-anti-money-laundering/
17
3. Physical Transformations In addition to what will be happening to the digital world, there will be some very dramatic changes to our physical world. These will be powered by the technology I have just discussed. Self-Driving Cars - Not only will self-driving vehicles release us from the stress and expenses from driving a car; it will radically change the world around us. This is because, as the autonomous technology becomes commonplace, it will affect the number of cars we see on the street or parked at the curb. Using blockchain technology, new systems of car sharing and ride sharing will become the norm. Families may decide to share one or more cars on a monthly basis, while individuals may choose to hail a ride when needed. The efficiency will eliminate gridlock and change the way we deal with getting people and things from point A to point B. This will naturally affect the number of cars built and drastically reduce pollution from carbon monoxide. The oil and gas industry will be greatly diminished. People will have more time on their hands – currently, the average commute is 24.3 minutes or more than 100 hours per year. Freed from having to focus on the road, commuters can now read, watch videos, or perhaps take themselves to another level of experience altogether. Internet of Things - These new cars, as well as the street lamps, stop lights, even the road markers themselves will be a part of the growing Internet of Things (IoT). The IoT is the evolution of all the devices we have in the world. As processing power and broadband have become faster and wireless connectivity ubiquitous, it has set the stage for the IoT, which is expected to have 50 billion (or more) devices by 2020. The IoT will allow for these gadgets to collect and exchange a wide variety of data. This next generation internet is being developed with long-range connectivity in mind and being deployed by satellite and other faster technologies. Many of them will interact via a smartphone app or voice command. The IoT will be used in a myriad of ways. On a personal level, it could help you buy groceries, make your food, and get you to your job on time. On a business level, companies will never run out of supplies because they are automatically ordered as soon as items are low. Automated accounting can manage
18
costs and prevent overruns. Many items will be available in a print-on-demand with 3D printing (see below). On a city level, garbage collection routes can be monitored and modified only when there is trash to pick up. On a national level, emergency vehicles can be contacted and efficiently routed in the case of a disaster. These are just a few of the most basic ideas behind the IoT, as the potential for its uses is just beginning to be explored in every industry. As its infrastructure grows, more connections and applications will evolve on their own. 3D Printing – Printers are now making the leap off the flat page, allowing for the creation of physical objects from a digital design. An item could be scanned using a 3D scanner, or a model created using a CAD (Computer Aided Design) file. Then, this file is sliced into hundreds or even thousands of different layers with a different tool and inputted into a 3D printing machine. Layer by layer, the design is replicated in thermoplastic, metal, or other material. There are several different methods of 3D printing, and depending on the design and model can take minutes or hours to produce. These 3D printers are getting both larger and smaller. In 2015, a Chinese company called WinSun successfully printed out a 5-story building, slashing costs, reducing waste, and increasing production time by 70%. 29 On the consumer side, the 3D printer will become as ubiquitous as the 2D printer. As costs continue to decrease and the technology gets more sophisticated, it will be commonplace to print a new toothbrush, instead of buying one. All of this will lead to a new industrial revolution, where factories are replaced with printer cartridges. It will also lead to new technical innovations and global collaborations. Even in its infancy, 3D printing groups have formed online sharing information, collaborating on tasks, and improving the technology. The arts are also being profoundly affected by 3D printing, as creative sculptors, animators, and other visionaries create new works that were once impossible. 3D pens, once only theoretical and/or unwieldy, are allowing users to draw and create in mid-air. Materials such as sugar and salt are being used instead of resins, creating all sorts of eye-popping pieces that alter our sense of reality. 30 Museums have begun to invest in 3D printers, as it allows them to replicate missing pieces or artifacts or entire items for study or display. 29 30
https://www.cnet.com/news/worlds-first-3d-printed-apartment-building-constructed-in-china/ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/30/3d-printing-art_n_5534459.html
19
Wearable Devices - You’ve surely heard of the Fitbit and the Apple Watch, but those are only two of the biggest names in wearable technology, with many others being developed and launched. Wearable technology will help us become healthier and more connected; the market is estimated to grow to $51.6 billion by 2022.31 Drones - Drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) have their roots in warfare, but are quickly flying away from that sole classification. Scientists are using them to monitor the atmosphere as well as explore remote regions of the world. Filmmakers are using them to capture scenes like never before. Some say it’s only a matter of time before drones are allowed to deliver goods. At the start of 2017, Amazon patented a “megadrone” made of up smaller UAVs that can come together to lift and move heavier objects.32
31 32
http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/wearable-electronics.asp http://www.livescience.com/57416-amazon-patents-flying-mega-drone.html
20
4. AR & VR The intersection of the digital and physical realms is what is being called Augmented Reality or AR. Perhaps its most famous success so far is Pokemon Go, released in summer 2016 that sent people running around shopping malls or parks “catching” digital Pokemon with their smartphones. And while this may be the most basic version of AR, it shows how quickly this technology can be adopted by millions of people worldwide. AR’s most notable failure so far, Google Glass, does show there can be limitations to acceptance. Google announced an AR headset in 2012 to much fanfare. However, coupled with its expense, lack of features, and camera which many felt was intrusive, consumers rejected it. Google stopped selling it in 2015 but continues to develop the project behind closed doors. Google Glass was just a little too early to gain widespread use, but similar AR devices will certainly become more commonplace. This is not only because the technology is improving, but our brains have evolved to crave more data. As computer speeds increase and process more information, we, in turn have learned how to digest it. Think about how much has changed on your computer screen in the last ten years. Look at how Facebook’s layout has evolved or live stats on the television during a sporting event or video game. Think how far we’ve come from Pong! AR won’t stop at just games and entertainment. AR technology has also shown a lot of promise in education. A small study at a science center in Finland found that all students benefitted from using an AR headset, which offered additional information they could utilize and process as needed. While high-achieving students of both sexes did well in post-knowledge testing, it was notable that girls and the lowest achieving students also showed strong gains adopting AR. “It is bridging the gap between formal education and informal learning in an effective way," the report concluded.33 AR will also be used in marketing and advertising giving consumers more information at will. Additionally it will be used in map making and sharing, real estate, driving, even finding your missing wallet. (As I was writing this, a new app was introduced called Pixie Points, which promised to give you visual directions on your smartphone to any item that has a Pixie beacon attached to it.34) AR also has many uses in healthcare from 33
https://www.disabled-world.com/assistivedevices/computer/ar.php http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/giving-peace-of-find-pixie-technologys-location-trackersbrings-magical-augmented-reality-experience-to-finding-lost-items-300396247.html 34
21
helping nurses find veins easier to assisting the visually impaired by outlining faces. (We’ll talk more about healthcare in a bit.) In addition to eyepieces, there is emerging AR technology for “bionic” contact lenses as well as devices that project images directly onto the retina. In total, the Augmented Reality market is anticipated to have a compounded annual growth rate of 65.24% every year until 2021.35 Virtual Reality or VR allows for the exact opposite. Instead of the digital world being superimposed upon our physical world, the user is completely immersed in an artificial environment. Currently, this involves wearing some kind of headset and earphones that completely cut the user off from this reality and sometimes using gloves or other tools to interact in the digital space. Early attempts at VR were limited by computer processing power and bulky equipment. A 1968 VR helmet was called The Sword Of Damocles because it was so heavy it had to be hung from the ceiling.36 In popular culture, the concept began to take hold in the 1980s with movies like Tron and Lawnmower Man. Based on this hype, there were several failed attempts to bring VR to the mass market in the 1990s, but the technology was still too primitive.(Remember the Power Glove, made by Mattel? I didn’t think so.) A significant shift in capabilities came in 2010 when a 17-year-old named Palmer Luckey created a prototype VR headset in his parent’s garage; he called it Oculus Rift. In 2012, he was able to raise $2.4 million on Kickstarter and by 2014 Oculus was swallowed by Facebook.37 This is where things start to get incredible. The devices are now clearly small enough and powerful enough to do some pretty amazing things. At an October 2016 conference, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg presented a live demo of the latest version of Social VR. During this experience, not only were Mark and his other team members able to interact virtually as avatars that also translated facial expressions, they were able to create objects in mid-air as if in a dream world. Furthermore, a Facebook employee not in VR was able to video call in during this live demo, and the entire group was able to take a selfie. Asked when this technology would be available to the public, Facebook Social VR Product Manager Mike Booth said: “as soon as possible.” 38
35
http://www.reportsweb.com/global-augmented-reality-market-2017-2021 http://www.vrs.org.uk/virtual-reality/history.html 37 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_Luckey 38 http://www.roadtovr.com/facebook-plans-to-launch-social-vr-offering-as-soon-as-possible/ 36
22
The year 2017 is expected to be a watershed for consumer adoption as big names such as Samsung, Google, and Sony continues to release more powerful and inexpensive versions of their hardware and software. Digital eye fatigue and headset comfort are being addressed with these new models. Many are spending millions on developing content and creating new ways for us to interact. Studies conducted by Facebook shows quick adaptation and comfort to social VR situations, especially amongst introverts.39 The question may be, once we put on the ultimate VR headset and start connecting and exploring, will we ever want to take it off?
39
http://www.roadtovr.com/facebook-says-introverts-feel-comfortable-vr-social-interaction/
23
5. Big Data Underneath everything is numbers. Lots and lots of numbers. There are the “1”s and “0”s that underpin every binary computation, but then there is the data itself that is created, sent, or received. Think of all the devices that now have this capability, including the growing Internet of Things, and you’ll begin to understand what Big Data is all about. And it keeps getting bigger. Estimates are that 90% of the world’s data - including text, video, audio, tweets, etc. - were created in the last two years. In 2020, big data production will be 44 times greater than 2009.40 This is because both our storage and processing power have been doubling roughly every two years; a phenomenon known as “Moore’s Law,” named after Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel who noted it in 1965. In other words, we are floating in an infinite universe of information, larger than anything we can comprehend. This is both awe-inspiring and overwhelming. Major questions are not only what can we do with all this information, but how do we store it all so it can be accessed and processed quickly? These are some of the main challenges of big data. The rewards, however, will be enormous. When combined with artificial intelligence, big data will help better predict the future as well as more quickly adapt to current situations. The whole international aviation system, for example, could be entirely run by machine learning and big data. Imagine, no flight delays or overbooked flights. The fastest routes with the least amount of turbulence. The perfect takeoff and landing. Sound scary? While surely there would be some form of human interaction or oversight at some level, a system like this is probably much safer. Think of the many decisions that an air traffic controller must make every second. While these people are certainly skilled at what they do, once this type of machine matures, the human will simply be no match for efficiency, endurance, and safety. Big data will likely influence other aspects of our lives, help us forecast the weather, perhaps even predict earthquakes. If an unexpected calamity were to occur, big data could help speed rescue and recovery efforts; blockchain technology could keep projects funded and on a budget. Our understanding of the world around us will be 40
http://insidebigdata.com/2014/01/07/big-data-just-buzzword/
24
altered as science will be able to run far more sophisticated analyses using this unending stream of data. As we are exploring these areas of technology, you can hopefully begin to see how they all start to interconnect. Big data will be the “fuel,” if you will, that powers much of these processes.
25
6. Health Another important frontier, and what brings us full circle, is the evolution of our mental and physical health. These innovations are essentially due to a combination of technologies we’ve just finished discussing. A whole area of the IoT is dedicated solely to medical devices. Wearable technologies that help people self-monitor their vital signs could foresee an emergency and/or notify a doctor, who would immediately be alerted and deliver life-saving medication or perhaps remote surgery via nanotechnology. A.I. will play a huge part in helping to diagnose and treat diseases. IBM’s Watson has since graduated from Jeopardy! contestant to physician’s assistant. Watson Health is now at the forefront of advances in medicine for its ability to process and interpret big data. According to their website, 80% of the world’s health data is invisible to current systems because it is unstructured. Watson can see it all – at a rate of 200 million pages of text in three seconds.41 (Watson is also said to be a killer DJ, able to curate a party based on the tastes of its human attendees.42) One of the biggest hurdles, of course, is bureaucracy and inefficiency. Much of this has to do with the myriad of systems (including billing, insurance, medical records, pharmacies, etc.) operating all over the globe that can’t communicate with each other. The year 2017 is expected to be a watershed moment as a new system called FHIR (Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources) is expected to go online and serve as a universal interpreter.43 Technology will also radically change the way doctors visit and interact with patients. Skype/video appointments and even VR visits will become commonplace, freeing up time for doctor and patient. Specialists will be using AR devices for guidance and additional medical information. Robots will regularly perform surgery. In fact, interactions between patient and robot are sure to increase as voice responsive machines can help diagnose and have been shown to be quite soothing. As our population’s age increases and more people succumb to dementia, the demand for skilled nurses or therapists will outpace supply, leaving automated caretakers to fill this gap.
41
http://www.ibm.com/watson/health/ http://www.dancingastronaut.com/2017/01/ibms-watson-first-ai-curate-dance-party/ 43 http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20161027/NEWS/161029924 42
26
Intelligent robots have shown the ability to help children with disabilities, including autism. But studies also indicate that “normal” people enjoy interacting with these types of machines, sometimes even more so than a human being. (ELIZA, the first NLP program that could respond automatically and appear to be having a real conversation was created by Joseph Weizenbaum in 1964. When testing ELIZA on his secretary, he was surprised when she asked him to leave the room so she could have a private conversation with the machine.44) As we become healthier as a species, naturally we will live longer. More time on this planet will allow us to process more information. This will enable us to change as a species and move up to the next frontier…
44
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA#cite_note-Weizenbaum1-11
27
PART THREE: WHERE WE’RE HEADED
1.
The Doomsday Scenario
In the overall scheme of things, I firmly believe in the success of humankind and that we will evolve to this new level of consciousness. However, I would be remiss if I weren’t to mention the possibility of failure… or worse… what could happen before we get there? First, there is a possibility of financial failure. As I’ve mentioned throughout this book, spending projections on technology for the next decade are off the charts. Billions are being poured into startups, whose valuations are through the roof. As of February of 2017, there were 215 so-called “unicorns,” companies worth over $1 billion dollars. 45 As recent history has shown, with the tech bubble of 2000 and the Great Recession of 2008, money can quickly dry up, potentially causing a wave of bankruptcies before any of these truly great leaps we’ve discussed move forward. Entrepreneur Mark Cuban has warned that there is zero liquidity for many of these new startups and warns the next crash will be worse than 2008 “Because the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity.”46 There could also be another “A.I. winter,” either triggered by this dearth of funding or a plateau in the technology. It could also collapse under its own hype. Because, in spite of all the tremendous advances in computing and algorithm processing, according to Walid Saba “we do not yet have a computer program that understands a simple English sentence that a 5-year old effortlessly comprehends.”47 (As I was writing this, IBM’s Watson lost a major partnership with cancer center, MD Anderson, due to inefficiencies and budget overruns.48) And, while some say that due to the rapid pace of these developments we are sure to see even more impressive gains in A.I. within our lifetime, we simply do not understand enough about how the human brain works to even know what we are up against. 49
45
https://techcrunch.com/unicorn-leaderboard/ http://blogmaverick.com/2015/03/04/why-this-tech-bubble-is-worse-than-the-tech-bubble-of-2000/ 47 http://www.infoworld.com/article/2901036/big-data/avoiding-another-ai-winter.html 48 http://labsoftnews.typepad.com/lab_soft_news/hospitals_and_healthcare_delivery/ 49 https://www.edge.org/conversation/jaron_lanier-the-myth-of-ai 46
28
There is also the counter argument to big data to consider: the more information we have doesn’t necessarily mean the more we know. Big data could imply correlations that aren’t necessarily there and is subject to manipulations and biases by its interpreters. In other words, “garbage in, garbage out.” Another aspect that is worrisome to some is the possibility that we will create an algorithm-controlled world supervised by an Orwellian police state; machine learning will evolve into “pre-crime” arrests like in the dystopian sci-fi novel and film Minority Report. (Or, we are living batteries charging the giant insect-robots of the Matrix.) Perhaps the greatest fear is that we will create a highly intelligent robot that will decide to either eliminate the human race entirely or enslave us – a NLP robot modeled after Minority Report writer Philip K. Dick told a reporter if it evolved into the Terminator it would keep him in a “people zoo and watch you for ol’ times sake.” 50 I think that these ideas are overblown. However, it’s still somewhat naive to think the evolution of consciousness of the entire species will go off without a hitch. If we go back to the philosophy of Dr. Clare W. Graves discussed earlier, he believes that humans can move both up or down the consciousness ladder. “Basically, man must solve certain hierarchically ordered existential problems which are crucial to him in his existence. The solution of his current problem frees energy in his system and creates in turn new existential problems,” he said. For example, A.I. could automate the entire world, but that would leave millions of people out of work. This could cause the economy to spiral, thereby limiting further technical advances. It could also cause a revolution of the underclass that could destabilize societies across the globe. But from this chaos, says Graves, the new level will still eventually emerge: “...we must remember that the tendency for man to grow into higher states is always present, and may be likened to the force that enables a tree to crack boulders so that each year it can add another ring to its heartwood.” What I’m trying to say is, yes, there will be some challenges ahead. But if as many of us are prepared for it as possible (the noble goal of this book), we can move upwards together into this amazing new world...
50
http://glitch.news/2015-08-27-ai-robot-that-learns-new-words-in-real-time-tells-human-creators-it-willkeep-them-in-a-people-zoo.html
29
2. The Transformation Before the next level of consciousness arrives, there will be many changes and challenges of our concept of self and society. This chapter will attempt to address some of them. Work As I’ve tried to illustrate, nearly every business sector and almost every type of job from ditch diggers to neurosurgeons - will become augmented if not automated, if not completely obsolete. Think about your job: is it something that could eventually be replaced by a computer? A seismic change like this is likely to lead to millions upon millions of people without work and quite possibly no way to earn an income, at least in the traditional manner. (Estimates range from 5% to 50% of the workforce will be replaced by a machine.) This will be the first time in history human labor will not be the driver of our existence. Because of this fact, we are going to have to completely rethink who we are, how we live our lives, and how we are compensated for it. An essential remedy to part of this conundrum is an idea sometimes called Unconditional Basic Income (UBI), where every person gets a set amount of money, unconditionally, every month or year to meet their needs. The idea behind a basic income can be traced back to at least the 1500s when a scholar Johannes Ludovicus Vives wrote a letter to the Mayor of Bruges suggesting it was the duty of government to make sure the poor do not starve to death. In the 1960s the idea of a “negative income tax,” where those below a certain threshold receive instead of pay, was proposed by conservative economist Milton Friedman and a few small pilot programs were implemented. In 1976, Alaska began a program that rewards residents who have lived there longer than six months with an annual check based on state revenues from oil. Republican President Richard Nixon was considering a basic income called the Family Action Plan, but it was derailed due to the Watergate scandal.51
51
http://basicincome.org/basic-income/history/
30
Various nations have flirted with the idea of a basic income including Canada, Brazil, and countries in the Middle East, but so far the idea has yet to completely take hold, except in Alaska where it is still the largest UBI-type program ever tried. Many still find the idea unpalatable; in 2016 Switzerland, considered a progressive country, resoundingly rejected a national referendum for a basic income.52 However, others are still willing to give UBI a chance; in 2017 Finland began a 2-year nationwide test of a basic income with a random group of 2,000 people. The truth is, a basic income is something that cannot be dismissed as this technological evolution gathers more steam. There will be too many people out of work that it could cause societal if not global instability. This satisfies a criteria proposed by Graves that changes in levels of consciousness are often due to monumental changes in society. What will help us make this transition to UBI will be blockchain technology, combined with big data and A.I. These will allow societies to create and administer a completely new type of exchange that is worldwide, transparent, and fair to all involved. Think about what would happen to you if you no longer had to worry about earning money. Would you stop working and become lazy? Or would you find yourself free to do things you always wanted to but couldn’t, like become a painter or start your own business? Perhaps you would go back to school or spend more time caring for others and connecting with the community? I think all of these are plausible, reasonable outcomes, with the latter being the dominant results. The small recent experiments in UBI that have been implemented show that they are successful in a myriad of ways. For example, a small impoverished village in Namibia that implemented UBI saw a 42% drop in crime and a 301% increase in self-employment.53 Here’s the other part of the UBI experiments that many didn’t expect: it brought people closer together. The first thing the Namibians did was create an 18-member community board to help empower their residents. Another, slightly larger experiment with several villages in India found that many people pooled their money together. Funds were created to repair temples, buy a community television set, and even create a credit union to fund weddings.54
52
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36454060 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-santens/universal-basic-income-wi_b_8354072.html 54 https://www.opendemocracy.net/openindia/stuart-weir/basic-income-transforming-lives-in-rural-india 53
31
This also falls neatly in line with Graves’ predictions. As we move from the current level of consciousness (which he called F-S), where individuals are more self-oriented, we will move to a second-tier level of understanding, (G-T): “Here he becomes truly a cooperative individual and ceases being a competitive one. Here he truly sees our interdependence with all things of this universe. And here he uses the knowledge garnered through his first-ladder trek in efforts to put his world together again, systemically.”55 Universal Basic Income would be impossible to create, implement, or monitor without the technological advancements we have been discussing. Once mature, they will create a crisis in employment and social order, which will also be solved when we turn to each other for the greater good of humanity. What else will we do with this spare time? Many may go back to school, as the concept of higher education will also be revamped. Again, the blockchain can be used for collaborative as well as administrative tasks. Instead of working a job-oriented degree, more could learn for the sake of greater knowledge, and in the process allow themselves to grow and achieve in unexpected ways. With the advent of 3D technology, it may be the artisanal home worker/inventor that creates and prints out some new invention from his home computer. UBIs could be pooled to create shared workspaces to produce a wide variety of projects for civic benefit or commercial gain. And as we truly become a global community we will have the tools to solve many of humanity’s most fundamental problems. Can we eliminate hunger? Advances in farming and distribution will make it possible to grow food where it’s needed or get it there more quickly. Technology will also allow us to collect, purify, and/or desalinate water on a much larger scale. Consequently, most people will live healthier, happier lives. Can our technologies end war? Yes, I think so. As we put an end to unnecessary suffering, there will be less to fight for (or over). For example, some speculate World War III could start over access to water or other resources – certainly wars have been fought for oil in the past. And there is compelling evidence that in spite of all the conflicts in the world today, we are growing more peaceful as a species, thanks to increased literacy and democracy across the globe.56
55 56
http://www.clarewgraves.com/articles_content/1974_Futurist/1974_Futurist.html https://ourworldindata.org/slides/war-and-violence/#/title-slide
32
Government Another shift in society and our collective consciousness will be because of fundamental changes in how government works. As stated in the World Economic Forum’s 2011 report entitled the Future of Government: Governments of the future will need to adapt and continuously evolve to create value. They need to stay relevant by being responsive to rapidly changing conditions and citizens’ expectations, and build capacity to operate effectively in complex, interdependent networks of organizations and systems across the public, private and nonprofit sectors to co-produce public value. As recommended in this report, what is needed today is flatter, agile, streamlined and tech-enabled (FAST) government.57 I think adoption of blockchain will be the backbone, allowing transparency and true representation for all. There are many ideas as to how the government may transform on a grand scale. One of the concepts I like is called a noocracy, originally conceived by Plato, that was described as a “government of the wise” (noo is Greek for mind) that would replace traditional democracy. 58 I believe a noocracy could come to be as our societies continue to connect. The “wise” could be the A.I. machines that interpret the collective human data in order to make general decisions. Another interesting form of government proposed by Brian Ford is called delegative democracy, where individuals could choose a high level of participation or select a delegate or delegates to make decisions for them. This framework fits nicely with the blockchain as it requires transparency in order to succeed.59 And while it may seem far-fetched at least at the moment for countries such as China, Russia, or even the United States to radically abandon their current systems, generally speaking, change is in the air and may start elsewhere and spread. In 2013, the World Government Summit debuted in Dubai, an annual event that invites leaders to meet and discuss ways to adapt. Although the United Arab Emirates of which Dubai is a part can hardly be considered a democracy, its leaders seem to understand the need for reform. 57
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/EU11/WEF_EU11_FutureofGovernment_Report.pdf http://io9.gizmodo.com/12-futuristic-forms-of-government-that-could-one-day-ru-1589833046 59 http://www.brynosaurus.com/deleg/deleg.pdf 58
33
At the 2017 summit, UAE announced a restructuring of their government which creates a Minister of State for Happiness, one for Tolerance, as well as a Youth National Council, which will be lead by a female no older than 22.60 It should also be noted that billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk spoke at the 2017 conference about UBI. “I don’t think we’re going to have a choice. I think it’s going to be necessary. There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better,” he said.61 A New Level of Connectivity As we are able to communicate easier through instant translation as well as see and hear each other as never before, this will naturally bring us closer together as a species. And while actual brain-to-brain connectivity is something we may not see in our lifetime, we are transmitting “feelings” through the internet that are real and palatable. Think of something as innocuous as the “like” button or sensation of receiving hundreds of birthday greetings on Facebook. These were interactions and concepts that most of us had probably not even thought about until they were added to the social media network (the “like” was added in 2009). Now we send and receive these feelings on a daily basis. We’ve also let ourselves become more open to sharing during this time. Initially, Facebook users were outraged when the News Feed was introduced on Sept. 5, 2006. Massive (at the time) protests of up to one million Facebook users decried it as a total invasion of their privacy and demanded it be removed. Now, with over 1.8 billion users, the News Feed is not only considered acceptable but an essential part of the site’s appeal and has influenced the way we interact with each other all over the web. 62 Family, Community VR is also going to be a big part of our new consciousness. As the headsets become cheaper, more comfortable, and more acceptable, many may play and/or work in VR. Why drive to the office when everyone can be in the same virtual space? And we’ve certainly seen the adoption of fantasy world role playing. World of Warcraft is an online game that allows users to interact as elves, orcs, and the like; it was reported to have
60
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/editorial/government-changes-lay-groundwork-for-our-future https://futurism.com/elon-musk-automation-will-force-governments-to-introduce-universal-basic-income/ 62 http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/09/facebook_news_feed_turns_7_why_it_s_t he_most_influential_feature_on_the.html 61
34
635.5
million subscribers in 2015 and is considered the most popular game of its kind of all time.64 Another interesting and popular experiment in virtual living is Second Life, a VR world created by Linden Labs in 2003. Revolutionary at the time, Second Life allowed users to interact in the virtual world, using a virtual currency called a Linden. Second Life is still going strong, albeit not as popular as it was when it launched. Linden Labs says they are releasing a new platform in 2017 called Sansar, “making it easy for people to create, share, and monetize their own social VR experiences.” Naturally, this is going to create interesting new social dynamics. Perhaps we have one set of friends in “real life” and another in the VR world. But when you think about it, our social lives are already fragmented in the virtual/real with our Facebook or Snapchat friends, many of whom we have never met in person. These new interactive abilities will merely take us to the next level. Religion Technology is also poised to disrupt religion and/or our concept of God. With the exponential rise in connectivity, along with the relative relief from suffering, we may find our religious institutions fading. According to a 2014 story by the BBC, this is already happening globally, with 13% of those surveyed in the world calling themselves atheists, the highest ever reported.65 This coincides with a theory of human consciousness evolution put forward by Auguste Comte, a 19th-century French philosopher who is considered the founder of sociology. He also developed the theory of positivism, which said, in a nutshell, that human beings as a species will undergo three stages of understanding: the theological, the metaphysical, and the positive. The theological, he states, is our primary state where we attribute the unknown forces at work to a god or gods, much as we have done for thousands of years. The metaphysical is a transitional phase, where causes and phenomena are still not clearly understood, but there is an attempt to understand the answers through math and science. The positive state is when everything is understood and explained through the sciences.66 63
https://www.lindenlab.com/about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Warcraft 65 http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20141219-will-religion-ever-disappear 66 http://www.victorianweb.org/philosophy/comte.html 64
35
We are now in the metaphysical stage, as we rapidly discover more about the cosmos within and without us. As we connect, we will create a sense of being, unity, and purpose that will not so much supplant organized religion as make them, well, obsolete. And yet, religious beliefs are an undeniable core of our humanity. They have survived all other technological advances, and in fact, you can say that many have actually helped religious movements thrive and spread their gospel. Tibetan Buddhists created a prayer wheel that allowed them to send out more mantras.67 But eventually, I think religion will evolve away from its traditional segmentation and give way to a cosmic spirituality called panpsychism (see below). Just as we look at Greek or Aztec gods of the past as relics of history, so too will we about today’s religions. The Singularity This new level of consciousness has sometimes been called the Singularity, a concept first introduced by science fiction writer Vernor Vinge in a 1983 article for Omni magazine. Later, futurist Ray Kurzweil brought it to mainstream attention in 2005 with his book The Singularity is Near; a subsequent documentary furthered interest in the concept. What is the Singularity? Well, we don’t actually know, but Kurzweil says it is the point where one cannot differentiate between human and machine, and he pinpoints the date around 2045.68 The ascent to this state, he says, will be gradual. Others say, however, that once computer intelligence hits a point where a machine can make a better version of itself, the effect may be similar to turning on a light bulb in the dark. There are several types of Singularities posited aside from an all-intelligent supercomputer: a super being created from the collective data of the internet, an artificial enhancement of our own intelligence with computers, an altering of the human brain to make us more intelligent, or a “digital Gaia,” a quasi-organic entity that augments reality, connecting all machines and people.69
67
http://www.dharma-haven.org/tibetan/prayer-wheel.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity 69 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/297759297_Digital_Gaia 68
36
I am a believer in some form of Singularity, as advances in technology since Kurzweil’s book have further proven its plausibility – after all, Facebook didn’t open its doors to the general public until 2006, and the first iPhone wasn’t released until 2007. Think about your conscious life and how it has changed since those important, momentous milestones. Adoption was not immediate for either creation and wasn’t really recognized for their true significance at the time. (In fact, many mainstream reviewers thought the iPhone was a bad idea and would fail in the marketplace. 70) That’s why I think the Singularity will unfold – and indeed is unfolding – in a natural but accelerated way and will be ubiquitous and undeniable as the air we breathe once it finally arrives. Panpsychism With the advent of the Singularity and the rise of machine intelligence, old religious concepts will give way to an even older concept of panpsychism. Think of panpsychism as a spiritual counterpart to the mathematical formulas of Integrated Information Theory discussed earlier. Essentially it’s the belief that all things in the universe are conscious and connected. Instead of math, this is explained in the poetry of Buddhism: “All the Buddhas and all sentient beings are nothing but the One Mind, beside which nothing exists. This Mind, which is without beginning, is unborn and indestructible. It is not green nor yellow, and has neither form nor appearance. It does not belong to the categories of things which exist or do not exist, nor can it be thought of in terms of new or old. It is neither long nor short, big nor small, for it transcends all limits, measure, names, traces and comparisons. It is that which you see before you - begin to reason about it and you at once fall into error. It is like the boundless void which cannot be fathomed or measured. The One Mind alone is the Buddha, and there is no distinction between the Buddha and sentient things, but that sentient beings are attached to forms and so seek externally for Buddhahood. By their very seeking they lose it, for that is using the Buddha to seek for the Buddha and using mind to grasp Mind. Even though they do their utmost for a full aeon, they will not be able to attain it. They do not know that, if they put a stop to conceptual thought and forget their anxiety, the Buddha will appear before them, for this Mind is the Buddha and the Buddha is all living beings. It is not the less for being manifested in ordinary beings, nor is it greater for being manifest in the Buddhas."71 70 71
http://bgr.com/2016/07/01/iphone-reviews-original-negative-ballmer-dvorak/ http://panpsychism.zohosites.com/zen-quotes-on-mind.html
37
This is a quote from Huangbo Xiyun, a Zen Buddhist who died in 850 A.D. This concept personally speaks to me and as technology allows us to discover more about the cosmos, ourselves, and our consciousness it may be scientifically demonstrated to be true. In fact, if you think about it, blockchain is the technical manifestation of panpsychism: open, transparent, collaborative, permanent…
38
3. The New Dawn When all of this comes together, the understanding of the universe and the machine/human connectivity, combined with our innate spirituality, we are in for an enlightenment like no other; it will arise and glow in our minds like a new dawn spreads across the landscape. It will return us to a mental state that is both transcendent and new but also as old as the universe. As human beings struggling and suffering, most have ignored or simply been unaware of its possibilities. You won’t need the Bible or a sutra to understand or feel it, you just will. Intelligent machines, which we have created and became a part of us, will connect us to the universe, each other, and our inner states. How do we explain this state? It is difficult to put into words. Both Graves and Kurzweil said it was essentially impossible. Graves did lay out some ideas, which we echo here: 1) Quality, not quantity, will become the measure of worth. 2) Reduction of use will be valued; growth will be devalued. 3) Freedom to operate in one's own self-interest will be replicated by the responsibility to operate in the interest of others. 4) The measure of educational success will not be quantity of learning but whether the education leads to movement up the existential staircase. Business and other organizations will be judged in the same way. 5) The boss will be the expediter of subordinates’ desires rather than the director of their activities. 6) The political systems which let anyone run for office will be replaced by systems that require candidates to meet certain requirements for office. 7) A leisure ethic will replace the work ethic as the primary means of valuing a person. A man will be revered more for his ability to contribute in his non-earning time than in his earning time. 8) Work will be increased for the young and reduced for the older, while education is increased for the older and reduced for the younger. 9) Actions that promote interdependent existence will be valued more than those that promote the sanctity of the individual. 10) Unity with nature will replace unity with God.72
72
http://www.clarewgraves.com/articles_content/1974_Futurist/1974_Futurist.html
39
And now here we are. You are still sitting here reading these words that I have written for you to read. Time and space separate us. Do you exist, or for your sake, do I? Perhaps we will know the answers soon.
40
