May 13, 2013 - program; (3) marketing loan benefits; and, (4) dairy basic and ... Nonrecourse Marketing Assistance Loans
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515
Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director
May 13, 2013
Honorable Frank D. Lucas Chairman Committee on Agriculture U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Mr. Chairman: As you requested, CBO has prepared an estimate of the effects on direct spending of draft legislation entitled the Agriculture Reform and Risk Management Act of 2013, as posted on the Web site of the House Committee on Agriculture on May 10, 2013. Estimated Budgetary Effects Relative to the Current-Law Baseline CBO estimates that direct spending authorized by the draft legislation over the 2014-2023 period would total $940 billion. Relative to spending projected under CBO’s May 2013 baseline, CBO estimates that enacting the draft legislation would reduce direct spending by $33.3 billion over the 2014-2023 period. Further details of that estimate are displayed in the enclosed tables. Table 1 shows CBO’s estimate of the budgetary effects by title; Table 2 provides estimates pertaining to specific agricultural commodities under title I of the legislation; and Table 3 shows estimates for specific provisions within the various titles of the proposal. Because the proposal would affect direct spending, pay-as-you-go procedures apply. Enacting the proposed legislation would not affect federal revenues. CBO has not estimated the additional discretionary spending for agricultural programs that would result from implementing the proposal; such spending would be subject to appropriation actions. CBO also has not reviewed the proposal for intergovernmental or private-sector mandates.
Honorable Frank D. Lucas Page 2 Estimated Budgetary Effects Assuming That Sequestration Under the Budget Control Act Were Repealed You also requested that CBO estimate the savings that would be attributable to the draft legislation if reduced spending attributable to sequestration was not already incorporated in our cost estimate. Under that law, $593 million in 2013 spending authority for mandatory agricultural programs was cancelled. That sequestration, in turn, resulted in a reduction of roughly $6.4 billion in CBO’s baseline projections for mandatory agricultural programs over the 2014-2013 period. Those savings are a part of CBO’s most recent baseline spending estimates and are therefore reflected in the estimate of savings for the draft legislation mentioned on page 1 and shown in Table 1. However, if other legislation were enacted to repeal provisions of the Budget Control Act of 2011 regarding sequestration and the Congress subsequently enacted the committee’s draft legislation, CBO estimates that it would reduce direct spending by $39.7 billion over the 2014-2023 period. Table 4 displays CBO’s estimates of the impact of sequestration on the baseline for the mandatory spending programs that would be affected by the draft legislation. If you need further details on this estimate, we would be pleased to provide them. The CBO staff contacts are Kathleen FitzGerald, Emily Stern, Dan Hoople, David Hull, and Jim Langley. Sincerely,
Douglas W. Elmendorf Director Enclosures cc: Honorable Collin C. Peterson Ranking Member
Table 1. Summary of the Effects on Direct Spending from Draft Legislation Entitled the Federal Agriculture Reform and Risk Management Act of 2013, as Posted on the Web site of the House Committee on Agriculture on May 10, 2013
May 13, 2013
(Millions of dollars, by fiscal year)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
20142018
20142023
CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING OUTLAYS Title I - Commodities Title II - Conservation Title III - Trade Title IV - Nutrition Title V - Credit Title VI - Rural Development Title VII - Research, Extension, and Related Matters Title VIII - Forestry Title IX - Energy Title X - Horticulture Title XI - Crop Insurance Title XII - Miscellaneous
931 106 15 -762 0 0
-3,680 224 15 -2,160 0 20
-1,899 34 15 -2,246 0 20
-1,637 -199 15 -2,231 0 20
-1,611 -431 15 -2,212 0 7
-2,066 -696 15 -2,200 0 5
-2,164 -797 15 -2,182 0 6
-2,140 -899 15 -2,167 0 6
-2,210 -1,017 15 -2,167 0 6
-2,150 -1,152 15 -2,182 0 6
-7,896 -266 75 -9,611 0 67
-18,626 -4,827 150 -20,509 0 96
41 1 0 42 199 6 ___
67 1 0 53 725 19 _____
90 1 0 57 805 23 _____
95 1 0 58 744 23 _____
101 0 0 69 923 22 _____
89 0 0 49 1,024 17 _____
79 0 0 52 1,093 14 _____
69 0 0 54 1,101 12 _____
65 0 0 55 1,145 12 _____
65 0 0 55 1,155 12 _____
394 4 0 279 3,396 94 ______
760 4 0 543 8,914 161 ______
Total Changes in Direct Spending
578
-4,715
-3,101
-3,112
-3,116
-3,763
-3,884
-3,950
-4,096
-4,176
-13,465
-33,333
Source: Congressional Budget Office. Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. Excludes discretionary spending that would be subject to annual appropriation.
Table 2. Change in Commodity Payments Under Title I of Draft Legislation Entitled the Federal Agriculture Reform and Risk Management Act of 2013, as Posted on the Web site of the House Committee on Agriculture on May 10, 2013
May 13, 2013
(Millions of dollars, by fiscal year)
Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Total Feed Grains Soybeans Wheat Upland Cotton Rice Peanuts Other Oilseeds Dairy Wool Mohair Honey Dry Peas Lentils Small Chickpeas Large Chickpeas Total Change in Commodity Payments
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
20142018
20142023
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 __
-1,806 -175 -76 -3 -2,060 -506 -984 -95 -371 -60 -16 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 _____
-1,080 -82 -10 8 -1,164 -319 -420 -247 -127 37 -5 23 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 _____
-724 -67 -7 8 -790 -38 -378 -688 -117 54 3 11 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 _____
-754 -77 -6 11 -826 53 -432 -695 -106 48 7 35 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 _____
-1,048 -104 -7 11 -1,149 -56 -484 -719 -92 47 5 77 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 _____
-1,087 -108 -9 10 -1,194 -103 -511 -719 -96 50 4 97 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 _____
-1,009 -100 -11 10 -1,109 -90 -557 -712 -83 45 4 53 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 _____
-1,073 -106 -13 10 -1,182 -131 -549 -701 -81 38 3 82 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 _____
-1,031 -98 -16 9 -1,136 -124 -547 -701 -77 33 4 83 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 _____
-4,365 -400 -99 24 -4,840 -810 -2,214 -1,724 -720 80 -12 44 0 0 0 15 12 0 0 ______
-9,613 -917 -155 74 -10,610 -1,314 -4,863 -5,274 -1,147 295 8 436 0 0 0 31 31 0 0 ______
-35
-4,079
-2,214
-1,933
-1,907
-2,363
-2,464
-2,442
-2,513
-2,456
-10,168
-22,406
Source: Congressional Budget Office. Notes: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. Change in Commodity Payments represents the net change from: (1) elimination of direct payments, countercyclical payments, and average crop revenue election payments, dairy product price support, milk income loss contract payments, and, dairy export incentive program; (2) payments under the farm risk management election program; (3) marketing loan benefits; and, (4) dairy basic and supplemental margin protection.
Table 3. Detailed Effects on Direct Spending from Draft Legislation Entitled the Federal Agriculture Reform and Risk Management Act of 2013, as Posted on the Web site of the House Committee on Agriculture on May 10, 2013 (Millions of dollars, by fiscal year)
May 13, 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
20142018
20142023
CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING OUTLAYS Title I - Commodity Programs Repeal Direct Payments Repeal Countercyclical Payments Repeal Average Crop Revenue Election Payments Farm Risk Management Election Nonrecourse Marketing Assistance Loans Sugar Program Dairy Program Supplemental Agriculture Disaster Assistance Administration Subtotal, Title I
0 0 0 0 4 0 -35 897 65 ___ 931
-4,095 0 0 0 6 0 10 364 35 _____ -3,680
-4,158 -117 -1,336 3,368 7 0 23 314 0 _____ -1,899
-4,538 -182 -696 3,467 5 0 11 296 0 _____ -1,637
-4,538 -190 -462 3,244 5 0 35 295 0 _____ -1,611
-4,538 -215 -424 2,733 4 0 77 297 0 _____ -2,066
-4,538 -217 -413 2,603 4 0 97 300 0 _____ -2,164
-4,538 -207 -454 2,698 6 0 53 302 0 _____ -2,140
-4,538 -197 -429 2,563 6 0 82 303 0 _____ -2,210
-4,538 -194 -505 2,693 5 0 83 306 0 _____ -2,150
-17,329 -489 -2,494 10,079 27 0 44 2,166 100 _____ -7,896
-40,019 -1,519 -4,719 23,369 52 0 436 3,674 100 ______ -18,626
Title II - Conservation Conservation Reserve Program Conservation Stewardship Program Environmental Quality Incentives Program Agricultural Conservation Easement Program Regional Conservation Partnership Program Other Conservation Programs Funding Repeal of Wildlife Habitat Incentives Program Subtotal, Title II
20 -11 30 28 -1 47 10 -17 ___ 106
30 -85 58 149 -3 100 10 -35 ___ 224
-191 -147 72 252 -3 85 10 -44 ___ 34
-354 -219 87 285 -3 48 10 -53 ___ -199
-396 -290 101 191 -3 17 10 -61 ___ -431
-462 -372 114 83 -3 4 10 -70 ___ -696
-451 -446 128 40 -3 4 10 -79 ___ -797
-468 -518 128 27 -3 4 10 -79 ___ -899
-502 -591 128 16 -3 4 10 -79 _____ -1,017
-565 -663 128 16 -3 4 10 -79 _____ -1,152
-891 -752 348 905 -13 297 50 -210 ___ -266
-3,339 -3,342 974 1,087 -28 317 100 -596 _____ -4,827
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
75
150
-7 -535 -190 -48 3 10 20 -26 5 1 5 ___ -762
-8 -1,295 -840 -48 5 10 20 -25 5 1 15 _____ -2,160
-8 -1,295 -940 -48 10 10 21 -26 5 10 15 _____ -2,246
-8 -1,270 -950 -48 10 10 21 -26 5 10 15 _____ -2,231
-8 -1,240 -950 -48 2 10 21 -27 5 9 15 _____ -2,212
-8 -1,220 -950 -48 0 10 22 -28 5 2 15 _____ -2,200
-8 -1,200 -950 -48 0 10 22 -28 5 0 15 _____ -2,182
-8 -1,175 -960 -48 0 10 23 -29 5 0 15 _____ -2,167
-8 -1,165 -970 -48 0 10 23 -29 5 0 15 _____ -2,167
-8 -1,160 -990 -48 0 10 24 -30 5 0 15 _____ -2,182
-39 -5,635 -3,870 -240 30 50 103 -130 25 31 65 _____ -9,611
-79 -11,555 -8,690 -480 30 100 217 -274 50 33 140 ______ -20,509
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Title III - Trade Title IV - Nutrition Retailers Updating Program Eligibility Standard Utility Allowances Repeal Bonus Program Pilot Projects to Reduce Dependency Assistance for Community Food Projects Emergency Food Assistance Nutrition Education Retailer Trafficking Northern Mariana Islands Pilot Program Interactions Subtotal, Title IV Title V - Credit
continued
Table 3. continued. (Millions of dollars, by fiscal year)
May 13, 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
20142018
20142023
CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING OUTLAYS Title VI - Rural Development Rural Economic Development Loans and Grants Value-Added Marketing Grants Subtotal, Title VI
0 0 _ 0
2 18 __ 20
5 15 __ 20
5 15 __ 20
5 2 _ 7
5 0 _ 5
6 0 _ 6
6 0 _ 6
6 0 _ 6
6 0 _ 6
17 50 __ 67
46 50 __ 96
10 26 5 0 __ 41
16 40 10 1 __ 67
20 53 16 1 __ 90
20 54 20 1 __ 95
20 60 20 1 ___ 101
10 63 15 1 __ 89
4 65 10 0 __ 79
0 65 4 0 __ 69
0 65 0 0 __ 65
0 65 0 0 __ 65
86 232 71 4 ___ 394
100 555 100 5 ___ 760
Title VIII - Forestry
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
Title IX - Energy
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30 9 3 __ 42
30 16 8 __ 53
30 18 9 __ 57
30 18 10 __ 58
30 24 16 __ 69
0 29 20 __ 49
0 30 22 __ 52
0 30 24 __ 54
0 30 25 __ 55
0 30 25 __ 55
150 83 46 ___ 279
150 232 161 ___ 543
26 -4 5 2 127 0 0 2 36 3 2 0 ___ 199
254 -38 47 21 36 -4 2 20 350 26 21 -9 ___ 725
335 -50 62 49 37 -8 17 26 378 30 16 -87 ___ 805
366 -52 63 75 5 -11 20 28 308 30 15 -104 ___ 744
433 -52 64 102 0 -15 21 31 386 30 15 -92 ___ 923
454 -53 66 129 0 -16 21 34 409 30 14 -63 _____ 1,024
484 -54 68 137 0 -16 21 35 439 30 2 -52 _____ 1,093
484 -55 69 139 0 -16 22 36 451 30 0 -60 _____ 1,101
502 -55 71 141 0 -16 22 36 468 30 0 -54 _____ 1,145
511 -56 72 143 0 -16 22 36 466 30 0 -53 _____ 1,155
1,414 -196 241 248 205 -38 60 106 1,459 119 69 -291 _____ 3,396
3,850 -469 586 936 205 -118 168 283 3,693 269 85 -574 _____ 8,914
Title VII - Research, Extension, and Related Matters Organic Agriculture Research and Extension Specialty Crop Research Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Acceptance of Facility for Agricultural Research Subtotal, Title VII
Title X - Horticulture Farmers Market and Local Food Promotion Specialty Crop Block Grants Plant Pest and Disease Management Subtotal, Title X Title XI - Crop Insurance Supplemental Coverage Option Catasptrophic Crop Insurance Rerating Enterprise Units for Irriganted and Nonirrigated Crops Adjustment in Average Producer History Yields Equitable Relief for Specialty Crop Producers Crop Production on Native Sod (Prairie Potholes) Coverage Level by Practice Beginning Farmer and Rancher Provisions Stacked Income Protection for Cotton Peanut Revenue Crop Insurance Implementation Participation Effects of Commodity Programs Subtotal, Title XI
continued
Table 3. continued. (Millions of dollars, by fiscal year)
May 13, 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
20142018
20142023
CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING OUTLAYS Title XII - Miscellaneous Outreach to Socially Disadvantaged Producers Noninsured Crop Assistance Program Subtotal, Title XI Total Changes in Direct Spending
Source: Congressional Budget Office. Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.
5 1 _ 6
8 11 __ 19
10 13 __ 23
10 13 __ 23
10 12 __ 22
5 12 __ 17
2 12 __ 14
0 12 __ 12
0 12 __ 12
0 12 __ 12
43 51 __ 94
50 111 ___ 161
578
-4,715
-3,101
-3,112
-3,116
-3,763
-3,884
-3,950
-4,096
-4,176
-13,465
-33,333
Table 4. Estimated Impact on CBO's May 2013 Baseline Estimates of Selected Mandatory Programs From Sequestration, as Ordered by the Office of Management and Budget on April 10, 2013 (Millions of dollars, by fiscal year)
May 13, 2013
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
20142018
20142023
CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING OUTLAYS Title I - Commodity Programs Direct Payments
0
-408
-408
-408
-408
-408
-408
-408
-408
-408
-408
-2,040
-4,080
Title II - Conservation Conservation Stewardship Program Environmental Quality Incentives Program Wetlands Reserve Program Farm and Ranchland Protection Program Grassland Reserve Program Agricultural Water Enhancement Program Cheasapeake Bay Watershed Program Agricultural Management Assistance Program Wildlife Habitat Incentives Program Subtotal, Title II
-44 -17 -12 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 __ -76
-84 -46 -19 -5 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 ___ -163
-73 -65 -9 -10 -1 -3 -2 0 -3 ___ -166
-73 -81 -2 -12 -1 -4 -3 0 -3 ___ -179
-73 -95 0 -13 0 -4 -2 0 -4 ___ -191
-73 -108 0 -15 0 -4 -3 0 -6 ___ -209
-73 -122 0 -15 0 -4 -3 0 -6 ___ -223
-73 -128 0 -15 0 -4 -3 0 -6 ___ -229
-73 -128 0 -15 0 -4 -3 0 -6 ___ -229
-73 -128 0 -15 0 -4 -3 0 -6 ___ -229
-38 -128 0 -15 0 -4 -3 0 -6 ___ -194
-420 -412 -42 -55 -4 -19 -13 -1 -18 ___ -984
-750 -1,046 -42 -130 -4 -39 -28 -1 -48 _____ -2,088
Title III - Trade Market Access Program Foreign Market Development Cooperator Program Food for Progress Act Emerging Markets Program Technical Assistance for Specialty Crops Subtotal, Title III
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-10 -2 -2 -1 __* -15
-60 -12 -12 -6 -2 __ -92
-110 -22 -22 -11 -4 ___ -169
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-16
-31
-93
-589
-592
-605
-617
-635
-649
-655
-655
-655
-620
-3,130
-6,364
Title X - Horticulture Specialty Crop Block Grants Total Changes in Direct Spending
Source: Congressional Budget Office. Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. *=Less than $500,000.
