CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, October 2016

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CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, October 2016 ... How do you estimate BET stock market index in Romania in th
CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, October 2016 Confidence1: 65.3 September: 53.3; August: 64.8; July: 50.8; June: 58.5; May: 65.8; April: 60.9 Current conditions: 82.9 September: 67; August: 70.8; July: 63.8; June: 71.6; May: 77.1; April: 65.3 Expectations: 56.6 September: 46.4; August: 61.7; July: 44.4; June: 51.9; May: 60.2; April: 58.8 90.0

Current conditions

80.0

Expectations

70.0

Confidence

60.0 50.0

40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0

0.0 May-11

Feb-12

Nov-12

Aug-13

May-14

Feb-15

Nov-15

Aug-16

4.8000 EURRON in 6M

4.7000

EURRON in 12M

4.6000

End of month

4.5000 4.4000 4.3000

4.2000 4.1000 Jul-12

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Jan-13 Jul-13

Jan-14 Jul-14

Jan-15 Jul-15

Jan-16 Jul-16

100 – full confidence, 0 – no confidence, 50 - neutral

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1. How do you consider current business conditions in Romania? Balance2: 58% September: 40%; August: 44%; July: 15%; June: 41%; May: 54%; April: 23%

2. How do you consider the current employment situation in Romania? Balance: 82.9% September: 28%; August: 39%; July: 40%; June: 46%; May: 54%; April: 38%

3. What are your expectations for business conditions in Romania in the next 12 months? Balance: -16%% September: -24%; August: 6%; July: -20%; June: 9%; May: 8%; April: -10%

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Difference between “Good” percentage points and “Bad” percentage points

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4. What are your expectations for employment situation in Romania in the next 12 months? Balance: 5% September: -17%; August: 11%; July: -40%; June: 2%; May: 19%; April: 10%

5. What are your expectation for personal income in Romanian economy in the next 12 months? Balance: 26% September: 4%; August: 39%; July: 20%; June: 32%; May: 41%; April: 43%

6. What are your expectation for personal wealth (stock market, real estate etc.) in Romanian economy in the next 12 months? Balance: 37% September: 8%; August: 38%; July: -5%; June: -27%; May: 14%; April: 27%

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7. How do you estimate global macroeconomic conditions in the next 12 months? Balance: -26% September: -20%; August: 44%; July: -60%; June: -41%; May: -30%; April: -17%

8. How do you estimate the annual inflation rate in Romania in the next 12 months? Balance: 79% September: 80%; August: 83%; July: 75%; June: 82%; May: 73%; April: 70%

9. How do you estimate RON short-term interest rates (3-month-Interbank rate) in the next 12 months? Balance: 68% September: 52%; August: 67%; July: 55%; June: 77%; May: 73%; April: 83%

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10. How do you estimate RON medium-term interest rates (yields on 5Year bonds) in the next 12 months? Balance: 84% September: 50%; August: 50%; July: 45%; June: 73%; May: 76%; April: 83%

11. How do you estimate BET stock market index in Romania in the next 12 months? Balance: 53% September: -12%; August: 44%; July: -20%; June: -18%; May: 38%; April: 31%

12. How do you estimate RON compared with EURO in the next 12 months? Balance: -5% September: -24%; August: -28%; July: -45%; June: -41%; May: -14%; April: -23%

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13. How do you estimate Brent spot oil price in the next 12 months? Balance: 44% September: 4%; August: 29%; July: 21%; June: 10%; May: 14%; April: 28%

14. Do you expect at least one country to leave Eurozone in the next 12 months?

15. What is your EURRON exchange rate expectation in 6 months? Average Median Min Max

4.4879 4.5000 4.4300 4.6000

16. What is your EURRON exchange rate expectation in 12 months? Average Median Min Max

4.4971 4.5000 4.4000 4.7000

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17. What is your annual inflation expectation in 12 months (July 2016/July 2015)? Average Median Min Max Standard deviation

1.66% 2.00% 0.00% 3.00% 0.76%

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