Change in EI recipients - Rural Ontario Institute

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Thunder Bay. 11.2. 3511. Lennox & Addington. 14.8. 3513. Prince Edward .... Labour Force Survey. CANSIM Tables 026-0
on Rural Ontario www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca 519-826-4204 Vol. 2, No. 6, August 2014

Change in EI Recipients to May 2014

Highlights  The month-to-month change in the number of Employment Insurance (EI) recipients generally indicates the month-to-month change in employment in non-metro Ontario.  There is a wide range in change in EI across census divisions (CDs) in non-metro Ontario.  In non-metro CDs from May 2013 to May 2014, EI recipients declined the most in the Prince Edward CD and increased the most in the Timiskaming CD.

The level of employment in non-metro Ontario employment has not expanded since 20042. At the provincial level, the monthly change in the number of EI recipients is approximately equal to the change of the number employed (Appendix A). At the subprovincial level, the change in the number of EI 1

Employment Insurance (EI) regular benefits are available to eligible individuals who lose their jobs and who are available for and able to work, but can't find a job. The change in the number of regular beneficiaries varies, including people becoming beneficiaries, going back to work, opting out of the labour market and exhausting their regular benefits. A certain proportion of unemployed people do not qualify for benefits – those who have not contributed to the program (including those who have not worked in the past 12 months or their employment is not insured), those who have contributed to the program but do not meet the eligibility criteria because they left their job voluntarily or did not accumulate enough hours of work to receive benefits. Recently, the definition of regular beneficiaries was expanded to include those receiving regular benefits while participating in employment benefit programs, such as training. 2 See the Focus on Rural Ontario Fact Sheet: Patterns of job growth and decline to June 2014.

Number receiving Employment Insurance "regular benefits" (data for each month is the monthly average for the previous 12 months)

Metro (CMA)

200,000

Non-metro (non-CMA) 150,000

100,000

50,000

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0 2002

Metro and non-metro show the same pattern of ups and the downs in the same period. Metro fluctuations are greater than non-metro - in February 2010 compared to two years early, metro was up 102% and non-metro was 72%. By May 2014, metro was down 42% and non-metro was down 35%.

250,000

2001

The number of EI recipients in non-metro Ontario has been declining steadily since the economic downturn of 2009-2010 (Figure 1).

Decline since February, 2010 in the number of EI recipients in both metro and non-metro Ontario.

2000

Findings

Figure 1

1999

The change in the number of regular beneficiaries1 of EI is one indicator of the decline or growth of the economy. However, a decline in the number of EI recipients may not always indicate a decline in unemployment (or an increase in employment), as some may have exhausted their EI benefits, given up looking for work or not met eligibility requirements.

recipients is an indicator of the change in the number employed in these sub-provincial areas. See caveats in Footnote #1.

1998

Why look at Employment Insurance recipients?

Source: Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 276-0030.

Across non-metro census divisions (CDs) in Ontario, there is a wide range in labour market performance, as indicated by EI recipients. In May3 2014, the number of EI recipients in the Prince Edward CD was down 18% from May 2013 (Table 1). Since the economic downturn of 20092010, the number of EI recipients has been trending down. There is significant month to month variation from 200 in September 2013 to 500 in February 2014 (Figure 2). The Ontario CD with the largest increase in EI recipients (May 2013 to May 2014) was the Timiskaming CD (Table 1). The number of EI recipients is in the same range before the 2009 downturn – and there is a within-year variation of about 400 recipients (510 in June 2013 to 900 in January 2014) (Figure 3). 3

Table 1 shows the change from the 3-month average for Mar/Apr/May, 2013 to Mar/Apr/May, 2014. Figures 2 and 3 show the monthly data.

Table 1

Figure 2 Number of EI regular beneficiaries, Prince Edward Census Division

Change in number of Employment Insurance "regular beneficiaries", May, 2013 to May, 2014 800 Census Division number

Percent change in number of Employment Insurance "regular beneficiaries" , comparing

Census Division

the average for the 3-months ending May, 2014 with the same calculation for May, 2013)

Number receiving EI regular benefits 700 600

Metro census divisions, ranked by rate of change in the number of Employment Insurance "regular beneficiaries"

3520 3519 3529 3521 3506 3524 3525 3553

Toronto York Brant Peel Ottawa Halton Hamilton Greater Sudbury

500

-8.9 -8.1 -6.5 -4.8 -3.4 -3.1 -2.5 -1.9

400 300

200 100

Partially non-metro census divisions, ranked by rate of change in the number of Employment Insurance "regular beneficiaries"

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

1999

2000

0

-40.8 -10.2 -9.7 -8.1 -6.0 -4.8 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.1 3.2 11.2 14.8

1998

Dufferin Durham Prescott & Russell Niagara Essex Simcoe Peterborough Middlesex Wellington Waterloo Elgin Frontenac Thunder Bay Lennox & Addington

1997

3522 3518 3502 3526 3537 3543 3515 3539 3523 3530 3534 3510 3558 3511

Source: Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 276-0032.

Figure 3 Number of EI regular beneficiaries, Timiskaming Census Division 1,800

Number receiving EI regular benefits 1,600

1,400 1,200

Non-metro census divisions, ranked by rate of change in the number of Employment Insurance "regular beneficiaries"

1,000 800 600 400 200

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0 1999

Source: Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 276-0032.

Appendix A In general, but certainly not always, when employment declines in a given month (i.e. there is an increase in the demand for EI – shown as a positive figure in Figure A1), then there is an increase in the supply of EI in the following month. Thus, we argue that subprovincial monthly changes in EI indicate the monthly changes in employment in a subprovincial jurisdiction.

Figure A1 Comparison of monthly change in demand and supply of EI (monthly change in employment and monthly change in EI recipients),

non-metro Ontario, January 2012 to May, 2014

Source: Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 027-0032.

Change in demand for EI: Monthly decrease in employment (1)

Summary

Change in supply (lagged one month) of EI: Monthly change in EI regular recipients

Month-to-month changes in the number of Employment Insurance (EI) recipients is an indicator of local change in the number of jobs.

Number of individuals (,000)

Rural Ontario Institute gratefully acknowledges financial assistance from OMAFRA and County of Wellington. Questions on data sources can be directed to mailto:[email protected]. Any comments or discussions can be directed to [email protected].

20 10

0 -10

-20 -30 Jun2014

May2014

Mar2014

Feb2014

Jan2014

Dec2013

Nov2013

Oct2013

Sep2013

Jul2013

Aug2013

Jun2013

Apr2013

May2013

Mar2013

Feb2013

Jan2013

Dec2012

Oct2012

Nov2012

Sep2012

Aug2012

Jul2012

Jun2012

May2012

Apr2012

Mar2012

Jan2012

-40 Feb2012

Across the census divisions in non-metro Ontario, the change in the number of EI recipients from May 2013 to May 2014 varied from a decline of -18% in the Prince Edward CD to +17% in the Timiskaming CD.

30

(1) The decrease in employment (i.e. the demand for EI) is shown as a postive number. Thus, the demand for EI in January, 2010 (i.e. the decease in employment) was 20 thousand. Sources: Statistics Cananda. Labour Force Survey. CANSIM Tables 026-001 and 282-0109. Statistics Canada. Employment Insurance Recipients, CANSIM Table 276-0030.

Jun2014

-18.1 -16.9 -15.2 -14.2 -13.7 -13.6 -11.4 -8.7 -7.7 -7.6 -6.7 -6.0 -5.3 -4.3 -3.9 -3.5 -1.9 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -0.6 2.3 3.7 3.9 10.1 13.8 17.3

1998

Prince Edward Algoma Kenora Rainy River Bruce Haliburton Perth Nipissing Oxford Kawartha Lakes Haldimand-Norfolk Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry Sudbury Northumberland Muskoka Grey Parry Sound Renfrew Huron Manitoulin Lanark Chatham-Kent Leeds & Grenville Hastings Lambton Cochrane Timiskaming

1997

3513 3557 3560 3559 3541 3546 3531 3548 3532 3516 3528 3501 3552 3514 3544 3542 3549 3547 3540 3551 3509 3536 3507 3512 3538 3556 3554