Climate Action Plan - City of Fort Collins

2015

P LAN N:

CLIMA ATE ACTION PLAN N FRAMEWORK – March 2015

FR RAME EWOR RK

1

Fortt Collins 2015 Climate e Action Plan Fram mewo ork March 20115

City of Fortt Collins PO Box 5880 Fort Collinss, CO 80522 fcgov.com//climateprotecttion fcgov.com//utilities fcgov.com//enviro

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Fort Collins City Council Karen Weitkunat, Mayor Gerry Horak, Mayor Pro-tem, District 6 Bob Overbeck, District 1 Lisa Poppaw, District 2 Gino Campana, District 3 Wade Troxell, District 4 Ross Cunniff, District 5 Climate Citizen Advisory Committee Bill DeMarco Bryan Watkins Chadrick Martinez Dana Villeneuve Dianne Ewing Eric Levine Glen Colton Greg Rittner Harry Edwards Holly Wright John Holcombe Kellie Falbo Marge Moore Mark Easter Mike Freeman Olivia Stowell Rich Fisher Sara Frazier Scott Denning Stacey Clark Suraj Renganathan Tom Ghidossi Yvonne Myers

City Manager Darin Atteberry Deputy City Manager Jeff Mihelich Project Management Team Bruce Hendee, Chief Sustainability Officer Sustainability Services Lucinda Smith, Project Manager Bonnie Pierce Emily Wilmsen Josh Birks Melissa Hovey Fort Collins Utilities Steve Catanach John Phelan Lance Smith Lisa Rosintoski Travis Paige Planning, Development and Transportation Paul Sizemore Numerous other staff contributed to the development of this CAP Framework. Consultants / Resources The Brendle Group Rocky Mountain Institute Platte River Power Authority

Participating Climate Committee Alternates: Chris O’Dell Hunter Buffington John Shenot Kelly Giddens Lisa Rephlo Stacey Baumgarn Shawn Tierney

CLIMATE ACTION PLAN FRAMEWORK – March 2015

i

TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................ 1 EMISSIONS TRENDS AND PREVIOUS TARGETS ........................................... 1 SETTING NEW GOALS.................................................. 2 2015 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN FRAMEWORK.............. 3 ESTIMATED EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS BY STRATEGY ....................................................... 4 FROM PLANNING TO ACTION ..................................... 5 A ROLE FOR EVERYONE ............................................. 5

Chapter 1 - Need for Climate Action ......................... 6 WHY CLIMATE CHANGE MATTERS IN FORT COLLINS ................................................. 6 MULTIPLE CO-BENEFITS OF CLIMATE ACTION .................................................. 7 ROLE OF CITIES............................................................ 8 FORT COLLINS’ CLIMATE COMMITMENT................... 8 WHY ACCELERATE FORT COLLINS’ CLIMATE ACTION GOALS .................................. 10 THE RISKS ................................................................... 10 WHY FORT COLLINS CAN SUCCEED ....................... 11

Chapter 2 Framework for Action ........... 13 THE PROCESS ............................................................ 13 WHERE ARE WE STARTING? .................................... 13 PROJECTED FUTURE EMISSIONS............................ 14

Chapter 3 - Emissions Reduction Strategies ............ 17 BUILDINGS: BOOSTING EFFICIENCY, COMFORT AND HEALTH.................................... 18 ADVANCED MOBILITY: MAKING TRANSPORT FASTER, MORE CONVENIENT AND CLEANER ........................... 22 ENERGY SUPPLY AND DELIVERY: THE SHIFT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES ............... 27 WASTE REDUCTION / MATERIALS REGENERATION ........................... 32

Chapter 4 - Triple Bottom Line Considerations ............. 38 PRELIMINARY COSTS AND SAVINGS ESTIMATES ........................................ 38 FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES ................................... 39 INCREASED RESILIENCY .......................................... 42 TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE IMPACTS .............................. 43 SUPPORT FOR CITY CITY STRATEGIC PLAN OBJECTIVES .............. 44

Chapter 5 - What does this mean for the Community? ... 46 HOUSEHOLDS ............................................................ 46 BUSINESSES .............................................................. 46 CITY OF FORT COLLINS GOVERNMENT ................. 47

Chapter 6 - Actions for 2015 and 2016 ....................... 48 PLANNED ACTIONS ................................................... 48 RECOMMENDED NEW ACTIONS .............................. 49

Chapter 7- Accountability: Plan, Do, Check, Act ............. 50 ANNUAL REPORT ....................................................... 50 METRICS ..................................................................... 50 PERIODIC CAP UPDATE ............................................ 50 GLOSSARY OF TERMS .............................................. 51

ii


Executive Summary The science is clear - climate change is already occurring and is no longer a distant threat. And the cost of inaction is unacceptable. Globally, the rise in temperatures has profound implications for natural resources, economic prosperity, health and human development. Fort Collins has long committed to reduce community greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to increasingly monitor local vulnerability to higher temperatures and actively explore ways to adapt and become more resilient. Since 1999 Fort Collins has pursued deliberate actions to reduce community GHG emission and make a difference within our community that has global benefits. To date, Fort Collins has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions five % below 2005 by partnering, educating and inspiring the community. Now , pursuant to City Council Resolution 2014-028, this Climate Action Plan (CAP) Framework has been developed to explore what it would take to achieve reductions in community GHG emissions of:  20 percent below 2005 by 2020,  80 percent below 2005 by 2030,  and carbon neutrality by 2050.

EMISSIONS TRENDS AND PREVIOUS TARGETS Fort Collins has calculated and reported its community GHG emissions since 1999 and focused its GHG reduction efforts on its largest emissions sources: electricity, natural gas, ground travel, and solid waste. Overall emissions are down 5% since the baseline year 2005, with the largest improvement seen in reducing emissions from community-generated solid waste. It is significant that these decreases occurred over a period of sizeable growth in population (16%) and economic prosperity (22% as measured by sales and use tax collections). FIGURE 1. FORT COLLINS COMMUNITY GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS * Airline travel has been removed from the community greenhouse gas inventory.


1

2. FORT COLLINS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, SALES & USE TAX* AND POPULATION *Does not include the Keep Fort Collins Great tax collections. 25%

% CHANGE FROM 2005

20% 15%

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS POPULATION FORT COLLINS SALES & USE TAX *

10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%

From 2008 through 2014, Fort Collins City Council targeted community GHG reductions at 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 and at 80% below 2005 by 2050. Our recent experience suggests that reaching an additional 15% carbon reduction in five years remains a challenge unless we rethink our approach. While no single step can reverse climate change effects, Fort Collins can pursue more reduction strategies, take advantage of leading edge technologies, and engage more citizens across our community in this effort to reduce carbon pollution.

SETTING NEW GOALS Comparing the trend in community GHG emissions to the 2008 goals, it has become increasingly clear that additional strategies are needed to spur additional action. Fortunately, targeting higher GHG reductions and accelerating our actions to achieve these reductions provides a range of benefits that can appeal to all segments of the community. Many residents choose to live in Fort Collins because of its natural beauty and their enjoyment of an active outdoor lifestyle, and therefore will continue to support increased pedestrian and bicycling transportation options and access. Businesses are attracted to the local innovative, entrepreneurial spirit and are willing to embrace new technologies that help reduce use of energy and other resources. Citizens of all ages want to see increased local job opportunities arise out of greening our buildings, generating energy from renewable sources, and creating transportation systems that serve more while using fewer fossil fuels. Many may enjoy opportunities to improve the comfort of their homes while reducing utility usage and costs through their retirement years. In 2014 City Council demonstrated a willingness to consider more aspirational GHG reduction goals of:  20% below 2005 levels by 2020  80% below 2005 levels by 2030  100% below 2005 levels by 2050 (carbon neutral)

2


City Council then acted by authorizing formation of a citizen advisory committee to explore what it would take to meet these objectives, and directing staff to conduct analyses of the steps necessary to meet these GHG reduction objectives. The value of goal setting cannot be underestimated. By setting a goal that makes Fort Collins a leader in the transition to a clean energy economy, the City may stimulate local innovation and entrepreneurial activity, attract new partners and outside capital, and encourage funding for cutting edge research and development. Community-wide goals provide a framework for public and private stakeholders to collaborate, and also encourage coordinated actions that simultaneously boost the community’s engagement, competitive spirit, and sense of pride.

2015 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN FRAMEWORK This document provides a framework for climate action planning to guide implementation of a new set of strategies that strive for more dramatic GHG reductions in Fort Collins. It is the result of a 9-month planning effort that engaged a core analytical team, a Citizen Advisory Committee, and input from experts across the nation to investigate state-of-the-art reduction tactics, and existing and best practices. The research and preliminary numerical modeling that was conducted to investigate strategy interrelationships and community impacts provides an initial understanding of what is possible. More detailed planning for implementation will be required for each strategy that incorporates emerging technologies, pricing and market information, and available financing tools. We will also learn through piloting new programs and projects. Each implementation step will build upon previous steps and incorporate lessons learned. Of course, there are associated costs and risks tied to both pursuing aggressive climate action and to not taking these actions or delaying them. We must be mindful to not deploy technologies before they are fully developed or have become cost effective, and deliberate about ensuring the reliability of our electric supply. Investments into the solutions will be required. We have a responsibility to manage initial costs to lessen upfront impacts and avoid inequities. But doing nothing or delaying accelerated reduction scenarios runs the risk of continued fossil fuel dependence, with its impending carbon regulations. At the same time, inaction can lead to even greater traffic congestion and worsening air quality. The City’s communications strategy is vital to the success of these planning efforts. We need to continue the steady, responsible actions already underway to reduce GHG emissions while engaging even more residents and businesses in Fort Collins. The new strategies described in this framework plan will bring more choices to more people, and these opportunities should be communicated broadly to Fort Collins' citizens to ensure successful adoption.


3

ESTIMATED EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS BY STRATEGY The estimated total carbon reductions for the suite of strategies and tactics described in this framework plan come within 10 to 15% of City planning objectives to reduce emissions 20% below 2005 levels by 2020, 80% below 2005 levels by 2030 , and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. FIGURE 3. ESTIMATED PERECENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FROM CAP FRAMEWORK STRATEGIES BELOW ADJUSTED BUSINES AS USUAL FORECAST Buildings: Boosting Efficiency, Comfort and Health Build in Efficiency From the Start Make Existing Homes More Efficient Increase Energy Efficiency in the Institutional, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors `Advanced Mobility: Making Transport Faster, More Convenient and Cleaner Shift Land Use Patterns to Shorten Trips and Reduce the Need to Drive Drive Adoption of Multimodal Transport Accelerate Adoption of Fuel Efficient and Electric Vehicles Energy Supply and Delivery: The Shift to Renewable Energy Resources Advance Utility-Scale Renewable Energy Supply Advance Residential and Commercial Solar Adoption

Shift Heating Loads to Biofuels, Geothermal, and Electrification Waste Reduction and Materials Regeneration Road to Zero Waste /Carbon Sequestration Carbon Sequestration TOTAL ESTIMATED MTCO2e REDUCTION FROM STRATEGIES Estimated Percent Reduction from 2005 Baseline

4

2020

2030

2050

3% 20%

2% 15%

3% 21%

27%

18%

21%

7% 3%

4% 3%

5% 3%

2%

2%

6%

0% 18%

30% 14%

11% 10%

3% 17%