CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR MACEDONIA

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THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND WATER ECONOMY

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR MACEDONIA   M. Sc. Aleksandar Karanfilovski

Skopje                                                                                             DECEMBER, 2012 

These scenarios are developed within the project for preparation of the Third National Communication on climate change, financed by GEF and implemented by UNDP in cooperation with the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning

TRY OF ENVIRONM MENT AND PHYSICA AL PLANNING MINIST

United Nattions Developme ent Programme

TABLE OF CONTE ENTS

Introdu uction 



Climate e scenarioss 



The de evelopment of climate cchange scen narios for M Macedonia 



Method dology 



Resultss 



Predicttions for me ean air temp perature cha anges 



Precipitation chan nge predictio ons 

14 

Summary 

2 20 

Compa arisons with h other resullts 

2 21 

Compa arison betwe een results obtained byy MAGICC/S SCENGEN v. 5.3 and MAGIC CC/SCENGEN v. 4.1 

2 21 

Compa arison with results from m the South h East Euro opean Virtual Climate Change 2 23  Centre e (SEEVCCC C, Serbia, B Belgrade)  Compa arison with rresults from m the Climate e Service C Center (CSC C, Germany)) 

2 24 

Conclu usion  

2 27 

Refere ences 

2 29 

2 Project “TThird National R Report to the Uniited Nations Fra amework Convention on Climatte Change” Blvd III Makeedonska brigada 10a; www.unfccc..org.mk;

TRY OF ENVIRONM MENT AND PHYSICA AL PLANNING MINIST

United Nattions Developme ent Programme

INTROD DUCTION Acccording to the definition of the In ntergovernm mental Pane el on Climate Change (IPCC), the e term ‘climate chan nge’ describ bes a statisstically sign nificant varia ation in the e average sstate of the e climate or its varia ability that persists p for an extende ed period, typically t decades or lo onger. Such h change may be ca aused by n natural varia ability or byy human acctivities. This definition n of climate e change differs from m the defin nition conta ained in the e United Na ations Fram mework Con nvention on n Climate Change (U UNFCCC). In I the Convvention, the e term referss to change es attributed d directly orr indirectly to human n activities that alter th he composition of the global atmo osphere, in n addition to o natural cclimate variability obse erved over ccomparable time period ds. Numerous studies and a analyses carried out in recent yearrs have sho own that the warming off the clim mate system m is clearlyy recogniza able in the increase o of global avverage air and ocean n tempera atures, the m melting of th he snow and d ice caps, a and the rise e in sea leve el. Th he centenniial linear tre end of increasing globa al average air a temperatture, (1906– –2005) from m 0.74 [0..56 to 0.92 2]°C shows higher figu ures than th he analogo ous trend frrom 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]°C C (1901–2000) pre esented in the Third A Assessment Repo ort (TAR), Figure 1. Over the e 50 yearss betw ween 1956 and 2005, the trend of warming g (0.13 3 [0.10 to 0 0.16]°C by decade) is almost two o timess greater th han the ana alogous tren nd over the e 100 years y from 1906 to 200 05.

Figurre 1. Registerred changes in: air temperaturre (a) global mean a (b) global mean sea level (estiimated by a ccombination andard and satellite meassurements) of sta (c) snow cover in n the Northern n hemisphere from March–April. All diffferences are e in relation to appropriate e mean value es for the perriod 1961–19 990. Curve es represent the mean va alues for decades, while circle es represent annual a value es. Shaded areas repre esent int