CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR MACEDONIA

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THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND WATER ECONOMY

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR MACEDONIA   M. Sc. Aleksandar Karanfilovski

Skopje                                                                                             DECEMBER, 2012 

These scenarios are developed within the project for preparation of the Third National Communication on climate change, financed by GEF and implemented by UNDP in cooperation with the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning

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TABLE OF CONTE ENTS

Introdu uction 



Climate e scenarioss 



The de evelopment of climate cchange scen narios for M Macedonia 



Method dology 



Resultss 



Predicttions for me ean air temp perature cha anges 



Precipitation chan nge predictio ons 

14 

Summary 

2 20 

Compa arisons with h other resullts 

2 21 

Compa arison betwe een results obtained byy MAGICC/S SCENGEN v. 5.3 and MAGIC CC/SCENGEN v. 4.1 

2 21 

Compa arison with results from m the South h East Euro opean Virtual Climate Change 2 23  Centre e (SEEVCCC C, Serbia, B Belgrade)  Compa arison with rresults from m the Climate e Service C Center (CSC C, Germany)) 

2 24 

Conclu usion  

2 27 

Refere ences 

2 29 

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INTROD DUCTION Acccording to the definition of the In ntergovernm mental Pane el on Climate Change (IPCC), the e term ‘climate chan nge’ describ bes a statisstically sign nificant varia ation in the e average sstate of the e climate or its varia ability that persists p for an extende ed period, typically t decades or lo onger. Such h change may be ca aused by n natural varia ability or byy human acctivities. This definition n of climate e change differs from m the defin nition conta ained in the e United Na ations Fram mework Con nvention on n Climate Change (U UNFCCC). In I the Convvention, the e term referss to change es attributed d directly orr indirectly to human n activities that alter th he composition of the global atmo osphere, in n addition to o natural cclimate variability obse erved over ccomparable time period ds. Numerous studies and a analyses carried out in recent yearrs have sho own that the warming off the clim mate system m is clearlyy recogniza able in the increase o of global avverage air and ocean n tempera atures, the m melting of th he snow and d ice caps, a and the rise e in sea leve el. Th he centenniial linear tre end of increasing globa al average air a temperatture, (1906– –2005) from m 0.74 [0..56 to 0.92 2]°C shows higher figu ures than th he analogo ous trend frrom 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]°C C (1901–2000) pre esented in the Third A Assessment Repo ort (TAR), Figure 1. Over the e 50 yearss betw ween 1956 and 2005, the trend of warming g (0.13 3 [0.10 to 0 0.16]°C by decade) is almost two o timess greater th han the ana alogous tren nd over the e 100 years y from 1906 to 200 05.

Figurre 1. Registerred changes in: air temperaturre (a) global mean a (b) global mean sea level (estiimated by a ccombination andard and satellite meassurements) of sta (c) snow cover in n the Northern n hemisphere from March–April. All diffferences are e in relation to appropriate e mean value es for the perriod 1961–19 990. Curve es represent the mean va alues for decades, while circle es represent annual a value es. Shaded areas repre esent intervals of indeterm minacy estima ated by real data a analysis. (IPC CC, AR4).

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he rate of increase in average aiir temperatu ure in the A Arctic is alm most two tim mes greaterr Th than the e global ave erage air tem mperature. L Land region ns warm more quickly th han oceanss. ogether with h global wa arming, a rrise in the ssea level has also bee en also reccorded. The e To period between b 19 961 and 20 003 saw an n average rise in the sea level of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3]mm m annuallyy, while the average risse between 1993 and 2 2003 was 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8 8]mm annua ally. Siince 1978, satellite ima ages have shown an a average ann nual decrea ase in the icce cover on n the Arcttic Sea of 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade and a significant decrease in n summer o of 7.4 [5.0 to o 9.8]% p per decade. The snow and ice cover on the mountains and glacierrs in both hemispheress has deccreased. A decrease d off about 7% in the maxim mum surface e of season nal frozen so oil has been n recorded in the norrthern hemisphere sincce 1990, witth the greattest decreasse being ap pproximatelyy 15% in spring. Te emperaturess at the top p of the pe ermafrost (p permanentlyy frozen su ubsoil) have e о generally increased d by 1 C.

CLIMATE SCENAR RIOS T The abovementioned data, toge ether with a abundant additional a data, indicatte a strong g probability that the recorded in ncrease in average a air temperature e and the riise in sea le evel, as well as chan nges in spa atial and tem mporal wind d distributio on, the occu urrence of intensive extra-tropica al storms a and long-te erm heat wa aves, etc., a are due to th he impacts of human activities, a an nd above all to the in ncreasing qu uantity of grreenhouse g gases in the e atmospherre. T This conclu usion is sup pported by tthe results of numerou us mathematical mode els used forr simulating and pre edicting futu ure climate conditions. Although natural n proccesses and factors are e too com mplex to be comprehen nsively desccribed in the ese modelss, the resultts undoubte edly indicate e the imp pact of gree enhouse gasses (GHG Gs) on clima ate changess as a resu ult of huma an activities. These mathematic m cal models, known as Global Cirrcular Mode els (GCM) or Atmosphere-Ocean n GCMs (AOGCM), ( g generally incclude two co omponents that affect climate c change. O compo One onent includ des natural factors f such h as solar radiation, wa ater cycle p processes in n the atmosphere, pe eriodical (da aily, season nal and annual) change es in the atm mosphere and a oceans, volcanicc eruptions, and dese ert dust, ettc. These vvariables and their ch hanges are e expressed d through realisticallyy quantified values, eith her through parameterss or mathem matical functtions. The second T d component used in these models is the presence p o GHGs, exxpressed in of n terms o of the inten nsity of their emission ns in the atmosphere, their struccture, total and partia al quantityy. This com mponent is d described b by the ‘emisssions scen narios’ that are develo oped by the e

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IPCC and describe ed in the S Special Rep port on Emissions Sce enarios (SR RES). These e scenarioss e various co onditions off emission a and the tota al quantity of o GHGs in the period up to 2100. describe Togethe er with sce enarios (pre edictions) ffor future economic, technologiccal, demog graphic and d sociolog gic developm ments in diffferent partss of the plan net and pro ovide the inp put data for the modelss for calcu ulation of the prediction ns of future climate con nditions. The IPCC’ss Fourth Asssessment R T Report (AR R4) presentss four basicc families off scenarios. These d describe various directtions of soccietal develo opment, ma arked as: A1 1, A2, B1 a and B2. The e A1 famiily is divide ed into three e sub-families on the basis of the intensity and manne er of use off energy resources: A A1FI, A1B, A1T. On the basis of th hese familie es, forty sce enarios were e developed d by using six basicc mathemattical modelss. These sscenarios re epresent the quantifica ation of the e qualitative descripttions and ffeatures of basic scen narios dete ermined in SRES whicch describe e various conditions of GHG em missions rela ated to the use of enerrgy resource es and to demographicc and eco onomic deve elopment. T followin The ng models a are used forr the develop pment of sccenarios:   

 



The Asian Pacific Inttegrated Mo T odel (AIM) of the Na ational Instiitute of Environmenta al S Studies (NIE ES) in Japa an (Morita ett al., 1994). T The Atmospheric Stab bilization Frramework M Model (ASF F) of ICF Consulting C in the USA A ( (Lashof and d Tirpak, 1990; Pepper et al., 1998 8; Sankovskki et al., 2000). T Integra The ated Model to Assess tthe Greenho ouse Effectt (IMAGE) of o the National Institute e f Public H for Health and H Hygiene (RIVM) in the Netherlandss (Alcamo et e al., 1998; de Vries et a 1994, 1999, 2000 al., 0), used in connection n with the Central Pllanning Burreau (CPB)) W WorldScan model (de JJong and Za alm, 1991) in i the Nethe erlands. T Multiregional Apprroach for Re The esource and Industry A Allocation (M MARIA) of tthe Science e U University o of Tokyo in JJapan (Morii and Takah hashi, 1999; Mori, 2000 0). T The Model for Energyy Supply Strategy S Altternatives a and their G General Environmenta al I Impact (ME ESSAGE) off the International Insttitute of App plied System ms Analysiss (IIASA) in n A Austria (Messner and S Strubegger, 1995; Riah hi and Roehrl, 2000). T The Mini C Climate Asssessment Model (MiniCAM) of the Pacifiic Northwe est National L Laboratory (PNNL) in the USA (Ed dmonds et al., a 1994, 19 996a, 1996b b).

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THE DE EVELOPME ENT OF CLIIMATE CHA ANGE SCENARIOS FO OR MACED DONIA Despite the D e high levell of technological deve elopment o of mankind, the develo opment and d survival of society as we know w it depend ds to a grea at extent on n the condition of the a atmosphere, that is, on weathe er and clima ate. Agriculture, transp port, energy, tourism and other sectors are e highly ssensitive to changes in n weather a and climate. Prediction ns of future climate con nditions are e thereforre necessarry to enable e society to adapt appro opriately to climate cha anges and mitigate the e possible e impact of ssuch chang ges, as well as to make optimal use e of natural resources. Climate ch C hange pred diction in Macedonia a is carrie ed out with the he elp of the e MAGICC C/SCENGE EN software e package,, version 5 5.3. in acccordance with w the IPCC’s basicc recomm mendations and the re esults conta ained in the e last Fourtth Assessm ment Reportt / AR4, ass follows: 

a Insstead, preferrence is givven to the ap pplication off No favoured (“best”) sccenario is adopted. sseveral scen narios produ ucing a spe ectrum of pro obable resu ults rather th han single values.  The use of the three m most probable values (o optimal and limit valuess) for climate e sensitivity: о о о 2 2.0 С, 3.0 С and 4.5 С. С  The selectio on of scena arios valid fo or the region n being observed.

M METHODO OLOGY S scenarrios were used in th Six he processs. These describe d th he current and future e technolo ogical, dem mographic, economic e and social d developmen nt of Maced donia, as fo ollows: А1B-AIM, А1FI-MI, А1Т--MES, А2-A AS, B1-IMA and B2-ME ES. A assessm An ment of air te emperature and precipitation chan nges has be een made fo or the period d 2025–2100, compa aring these changes to those in th he period 19 961–1990, w which was cchosen as a point of reference. In accordan nce with the e recommen ndations of the MAGIC CC/SCENGE EN software e for remo oving inter-a annual fluctuations and d indetermin nacies, the results r obta ained repressent a mean n state forr the thirty-yyear period, with the ce entral year sselected to rrepresent th he period. (F For example e, 2025 is taken as re epresentativve of the period 2011–2 2040.) Seleccting 2100 for f scenario o generating g involvess a minor in nconsistencyy: since the e scenarios defined in SRES desccribe the state of GHG G emissions up to 2100, the results for changes in air temperature e and precipitation for 2100 would d be repre esentative o of the period d 2086–2100.

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A Assessmen nts are made e for four ch haracteristicc years:    

2025, the ce 2 entral year for f the perio od 2011–20 040, 2 2050, the ce entral year for f the perio od 2036–20 065, 2 2075, the ce entral year for f the perio od 2061–20 090, 2 2100, (repre esents) the central year for the perriod 2086–2 2100.

of average global cha anges in tem mperature for a certain year, sccenarios are e On the basis o generatted for Mace edonia that estimate changes c in tthe amountss of temperrature and p precipitation n in the se elected years by emplo oying the SC CENGEN co omponent a as the generrator of scen narios. Data a 8 models (out of a total of 20 modelss, accordin from 18 ng to the user man nual of the e MAGICC C/SCENGE EN 5.3 softw ware (versio on 2)) were used in the e estimation n, generatin ng complete e о о results ssuitable for further use. The generrated scena arios have a spatial reso olution of 2 2.5 х 2.5 , о i.e. the points for w which the va alues were calculated c w were at a disstance of 2..5 north-so outh and 2.5 5 о

о

о

о

east-w west. In reg gard to the geographical location of Macedon nia (40.85 – 42.37 N, 20.47 – о 23.03 Е), it is co overed by ttwo quadra ants of gene erated scen narios (out of the tota al of 10,368 8 о о quadran nts that cove er the whole e planet). The T coordina ates of the ffirst quadra ant are 40.0 – 42.5 N, о о о о о о 20.0 – 22.5 Е an nd the coorrdinates of tthe second quadrant are 40.0 – 4 42.5 N, 22 2.5 – 25.0 о о о Е. The results are e generated for two cen ntral points,, А (41.25 N , 21.25 Е) and B (41.25 N, 23.75о Е), which a are shown in n Figure 2.

А

В

Figure 2. The e position of the central points, A and d B (marked by triangles), fo or which temp perature and precipitation changes we ere calculated in n relation to th he geographica al location of Macedonia.

I can be se It een from Fig gure 2 that tthe data gen nerated at p point A are vvalid for the largest parrt of our te erritory whille the data generated at point B are a only valid for the e eastern partt. Scenarioss were ge enerated fo or the four characteristtic years, fo or each ce entral point, for each o of the three e values of climate sensitivity and a for eacch of the six s scenario os. Values were produ uced for airr

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tempera ature and precipitation changes ass follows: fo or twelve months from January to Decemberr; for the ffour season ns of winter (Decemberr, January a and Februarry), spring (March, April and May), summerr (June, July and Augu ust), and autumn (Sep ptember, Occtober and November)), as well ass an avera age annual value. T The values obtained for f changess in air temperature an nd precipita ation for eacch year are e average ed for the three value es of clima ate sensitivity and forr each scen nario. The values are e describe ed as follow ws:     

high (absolu h ute maximum values, ccorrespondin ng to the А1 1FI-MI scenario) m medium hig gh (averaged d maximum m values) m medium (avveraged me ean values for the thre ee values of climate se ensitivity, ve ery close to o t A1B –AIM scenario the o) m medium low w (averaged d minimum values) v l low (absolute minimum m values, corresponding g to the B1 – IMA scena ario)

RESULTS Because of the resolution of data B d genera ated by MA AGICC/SCE ENGEN (2..5о х 2.5о), calculattions were m made for the e two centra al points A a and B. The results are shown in th he following g tables a and graphs. CTED CHAN NGES IN A AIR TEMPER RATURE PREDIC T Table 1 sho ows the mea an air tempe erature chan nges at cen ntral point A.. о

о

Table 1. Predicted changes in air ttemperature for central po oint A (41.25 N, 21.25 E)) for the yearrs 2025, 2050, d 2100, prese ented both separately forr the four annual seasons s (DJF - wintter, MAM – s spring, JJA – 2075 and summer, SON –autum mn ) and at an nnual level (Ye ear)

2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

Year /A

2100 

SON /A

2075 

JJJA /A

2050 

MAM /A

2025 

DJF /A

A   о (41.25  N N,  о 21.25  E))     High 

1.1 

2.4 

3.8 

5.0 

1.44 

3.0 

4.6 

6.2

2.4 

4.8

7.9 

10. 6

1.5 

3.0 

5.0 

6.7 

1.6 

33.3 

5.3 

7.1

Medium   high 

0.9 

1.9 

3.0 

3.9 

1.11 

2.4 

3.6 

4.8

1.9 

3.8

6.2 

8.2 

1.2 

2.4 

3.9 

5.2 

1.3 

22.6 

4.2 

5.5

Medium 

0.8 

1.5 

2.2 

2.7 

1.00 

1.8 

2.7 

3.3

1.7 

3.0

4.6 

5.8 

1.1 

1.9 

3.0 

3.7 

1.2 

22.0 

3.1 

3.9

Medium  low 

0.7 

1.0 

1.5 

1.7 

0.99 

1.3 

1.9 

2.1

1.6 

2.1

3.4 

3.9 

1.0 

1.3 

2.2 

2.5 

1.1 

1.4 

2.2 

2.5

Low 

0.5 

0.8 

1.1 

1.1 

0.77 

0.9 

1.4 

1.4

1.2 

1.5

2.4 

2.7 

0.7 

1.0 

1.6 

1.8 

0.8 

1.0 

1.6 

1.7

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A of the values All v prese ented are p positive, me eaning that an increase e in air tem mperature iss predicte ed in the pe eriod 2025–2 2100. Temp perature cha anges are g given below w. (The value in front off the bracckets repressent the me ean change.. The valuess inside the e brackets re epresent the maximum m (absolutte the greatest) and minimum (abssolute the le east) change e.) The results are ass follows: Graph 1. Prediction of mean air temperrature  changes in win nter season

Winter season (Deccember, Janu uary, Februarry): 2025: a change of 0 0.8 [0.5 – 1.1] C, 2050: a change of 1 1.5 [0.8 – 2.4] оC, 2075: a change of 2 2.2 [ 1.1 – 3.8 8] оC, 2100: a change of 2 2.7 [1.1 – 5.0] оC.

dT (oC)

о

6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

H High M Medium high M Medium M Medium Low L Low 2025 2050 2075 2100 2

(These results are sshown in Gra aph 1.)

DJF /A

Spring season (Marrch, April, Ma ay):

dT (oC)

2025: a change of 1 1.0 [0.7 – 1.4] оC, 2050: a change of 1 1.8 [0.9 – 3.0] оC, 2075: a change of 2 2.7 [1.4 – 4.6] оC, 2100: a change of 3 3.3 [1.4 – 6.2] оC.

Graph 22. Prediction of m mean air temperatture  changes in sprring season

(These results are sshown in Gra aph 2.)

7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

H High M Medium high M Medium M Medium Low L Low 2025 2050 2075 22100 MAM /A

Summe er season (Ju une, July, Au ugust):

(These results are sshown in Gra aph 3.)

dT (oC)

2025: a change of 1 1.7 [1.2 – 2.4] оC, 2050: a change of 3 3.0 [1.5 – 4.8] оC, 2075: a change of 4 4.6 [2.4 – 7.9] оC, 2100: a change of 5 5.8 [2.7 – 10.6] оC.

Graph 33. Prediction of m mean air temperatture  changes in summer season 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

H High M Medium high M Medium M Medium Low Lo ow 20255 2050 2075 22100

 

JJA /A

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Autumn n season (Se eptember, Occtober, Novem mber): Graph 44. Prediction of m mean air temperatture  changes in autu umn season

о

8.0 dT (oC)

2025: a change of 1 1.1 [0.7 – 1.5] C, 2050: a change of 1 1.9 [1.0 – 3.0] оC, 2075: a change of 3 3.0 [1.6 – 5.0] оC, 2100: a change of 3 3.7 [1.8 – 6.7] оC.

(These results are sshown in Gra aph 4.)

M Medium high

4.0

M Medium

2.0

M Medium Low

0.0

LLow 2025 2050 2075 22100 SON/A

  At annu ual level:

(These results are shown s in Gra aph 5.)

Graph 55. Prediction of m mean air temperatture  changes on an nnual level 8.0 dT (oC)

2025: a change of 1 1.2 [0.8 – 1.6] oC, 2050: a change of 2 2.0 [1.0 – 3.3] оC, 2075: a change of 3 3.1 [1.6 – 5.3] оC, 2100: a change of 3 3.9 [1.7 – 7.1] оC.

H High

6.0

High

6.0

M Medium high

4.0

M Medium

2.0

M Medium Low

0.0

Lo ow 2025 2050 2075 22100

 

Year /A

ate an incrrease in airr temperature througho out the who ole period 2 2025–2100. The data indica These changes c are e greatest in n the summer period. T The changess marked w with “high” an nd “medium m high” h have the highest gra adient of in ncrease (forr the period d between 2025 and 2100). The e changess marked with w “low” are e developed d more moderately. Grap phs 6, 7 an nd 8 show the highest, medium and lowestt changes predicted p fo or the mean n monthlyy air temperrature for central pointt A, per mo onth and pe er year for 2 2025, 2050, 2075, and d 2100.

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Graph 6. An nnual course of th he highest prediccted air temperatture  changes for 20225, 2050, 2075 an nd 2100  12.0

dT (oC) dT (

10.0 8.0

High 25

6.0

High 50

4.0

High 75

2.0

High 100 DEC

NOV

SEP

OCT

JUL

AUG

JUN

APR

MAY

FEB

MAR

JAN

0.0

 

dT (oC) dT (

Graph 7. Ann nual course of th he medium prediccted air temperatture changes for 20225, 2050, 2075 an nd 2100  7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Medium 25 Medium 50 Medium 75 Medium 100

   

Graph 8. A Annual course off the lowest predicted air temperaature changes for  2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 3.0

dT (oC)

2.5 2.0

Low 25

1.5

Low 50

1.0 0.5

Low 75

0.0

Low 100

 

The follo owing observations can n be made from f the data shown in n the graphss:

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 

   

United Nattions Developme ent Programme

For all th he selected years, all cchanges in a air temperatture are possitive, mean ning an increase e in mean m monthly temperatures. The inte ensity of cha anges is gre eatest in the e warmest p period of the e year from May M to Octoberr, when a sig gnificant diffference app pears in tem mperature ch hanges betw ween adjacen nt months. Inter-mo onthly chang ges in air te emperature a are more m moderate in tthe coldest period of the yearr from Nove ember to April. in July there is a prrimary and in n February a secondarry (almost tw wice as sma all) minimum m of change es. in April there t is a prrimary and in i Decembe er a secondary (almostt twice as small) minimum m of change es, The gre eater chang ges in tem mperature p predicted in February in comparison to the e changess in March and April indicate i a p possible le evelling of the avera age monthlyy tempera atures in thiss period.

Graphs 9, 10 and 11 show pred G dicted air ttemperature e changes for central point A byy seassons (quarte ers). Graph 9. Season nal change of the greatest predicte ed air  temperature ch hanges for  2025, 2050, 2075 and 22100  16.0 High 255

dT (oC)

11.0

High 500

6.0

High 755

1.0 ‐4.0

High 1000 DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

   

dT (oC)

Graph 10. Seasonal change of thee median predictted air  temperature ch hanges for  2025, 2050, 2075 and 22100  7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Medium m 25 Medium m 50 Medium m 75

DJF/А

МАМ М/А

JJA /А

SON /А

Medium m 100

 

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Graph 11. Seasonal change o S of the low prediccted air temperatture  changes for  20025, 2050, 2075 and 2100  3.0

dT (oC) dT (

2.5 Low 25

2.0 1.5

Low 50

1.0

Low 75

0.5

Low 100

0.0 DJF/А

МАМ/А

JJA /А

SO ON /А

S Similar to the monthly changess, the seassonal (quarrterly) chan nges demo onstrate the e follo owing:    

An increase A e in changess of tempera ature, i.e. an n increase iin average sseasonal temperature. F the entiire period 2025–2100, For 2 the intensitty of change es (high, medium, low)) is greatest i the summ in mer season (June, July and Augusst). T highestt and most rrapid increa The ase in tempe erature will occur o in the e summer. T Temperatur re change and a increase e will be mo ore moderate e in autumn n and winterr. O the basis of these findings, On f the e following cconclusions can be draw wn:

 



IIt is probable that there e will be a continuous increase in n temperatu ure in the pe eriod 2025– – 2 2100. C Compared w with the perriod 1961–1990, the pre edicted cha anges for the e period 202 25-2100 will b most inttense in the be e warmest period of th he year. Th hus summe ers will be w warmer and d w warmer, an nd the rise in tempera ature greate er . The airr temperature is also expected e to o i increase, th hough with le ess intensityy, in the coldest period of the yearr. I is possible It e that the avverage mon nthly temperratures at th he turn of winter into sp pring will be l levelled in th his period. T Table 2 presents predicctions of changes in avverage air te emperature at central p point B.

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о

Table 2. Predicted a air temperatu ure changes ffor central po oint B (41.25 N, 23.75 E) for 2025, 20 050, 2075 and d esented separately for the four seasons s (DJF- winte er, МАM – sprring, ЈЈА – su ummer, SON – –autumn) and d 2100, pre at an ann nual level (Yea ar)

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

Year /B

2025 

SON N /B

2100 

JJA /B

2075 

MAM /B

2050 

High  Medium m  high  Medium m  Medium m  low  Low 

DJJF /B 2025 

B   o (41.25  N,  N о 23.75  Е) Е 

1.1 

2.4 

3.7

5.0 

1.5 

3.1 

4.88

6.5

2.5

4.8

8.0

10.7

1.5

3.0

4.9 

6.5 

1.66 

3.3

5.4

7.2

0.9 

1.9 

2.9 

3.9 

1.2 

2.4 

3.88 

5.0 

2.0 

3.8 

6.3 

8.33 

1.2 

2.4 

3.9 

5.1 

1.33 

2.6 

4.2 

5.6 

0.8 

1.4 

2.2

2.7 

1.1 

1.9 

2.88

3.5

1.7

3.0

4.7

5.99

1.1

1.8

2.9 

3.6 

1.22 

2.0

3.1

3.9

0.7 

1.0 

1.5 

1.7 

0.9 

1.3 

2.00 

2.2 

1.6 

2.1 

3.4 

4.00 

0.9 

1.3 

2.1 

2.5 

1.1 

1.4 

2.3 

2.6 

0.6 

0.8 

1.1

1.2 

0.7 

1.0 

1.44

1.5

1.2

1.6

2.5

2.77

0.7

0.9

1.5 

1.7 

0.88 

0.9

1.6

1.8

As explaine A ed above, th he results att central point B describ be changess in air temp perature and d precipita ation in the easternmo ost part of Macedonia. M T The analysis made for the results at point A iss also valid for the re esults at poin nt B, with th he exception n of minor differences d in the chang ge values. T intervalls of temperrature chang The ges, for eacch season a and at annua al level, are e as follows: Winter sseason (Deccember, Jan nuary, Febrruary):  2025 2 : a cha ange of 0.8 [[0.6 – 1.1]оC, C о  2050 2 : a cha ange of 1.4 [[0.8 – 2.4] C, C  2075 2 : a cha ange of 2.2 [ 1.1 – 3.7]оC,  2100 2 : a cha ange of 2.7 [[1.2 – 5.0]оC. C Spring sseason (Ma arch, April, M May):  2025 2 : a cha ange of 1.1 [[0.7 – 1.5]оC, C о  2050 2 : a cha ange of 1.9 [[1.0 – 3.1] C, C  2075 2 : a cha ange of 2.8 [ 1.4 – 4.8]оC,  2100 2 : a cha ange of 3.5 [[1.5 – 6.5]оC. C er season (June, July, A August): Summe  2025 2 : a cha ange of 1.7 [[1.2 – 2.5]оC, C о  2050 2 : a cha ange of 3.0 [[1.6 – 4.8] C, C  2075 2 : a cha ange of 4.7 [ 2.5 – 8.0]оC,  2100 2 : a cha ange of 5.9 [[2.7 – 10.7]оC.

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Autumn season (Se eptember, October, O No ovember): о  2025 2 : a cha ange of 1.1 [[0.7 – 1.5] C, C о  2050 2 : a cha ange of 1.8 [[0.9 – 3.0] C, C  2075 2 : a cha ange of 2.9 [ 1.5 – 4.9]оC,  2100 2 : a cha ange of 3.6 [[1.7 – 6.5]оC. C Annual level:  2025 2 : a cha ange of 1.2 [[0.8 – 1.6]оC, C о  2050 2 : a cha ange of 2.0 [[0.9 – 3.3] C, C  2075 2 : a cha ange of 3.1 [[1.6 – 5.4]оC, C о  2100 2 : a cha ange of 3.9 [[1.8 – 7.2] C. C Table 3 sho T ows the diffferences between pre edicted temperature ch hanges at p point A and d point B B. It can be seen tha at in spring g (MAM) a and summe er (JJA) th he differencce between n tempera ature chang ges estimate ed in point A and pointt B is negattive. This m means that ttemperature e changess can be expected e in spring and d summer, and on tha at basis the e average sseasonal airr tempera atures are expected e to be greaterr in the easttern part off Macedonia a than in other parts off о о Macedo onia. This iss a differen nce of -0.1 С to – 0 0.3 С. This is also vallid for averrage annua al tempera ature changes, with а vvalue of -0.1 1оС. IIn winter (D DJF) and autumn a (SO ON), the diffferences arre positive (except forr the lowest changess). This me eans that in the central and weste ern parts off Macedonia a, with centtral point A, tempera ature chang ges will be g greater and winters with h higher airr temperatures can be expected in n о о regard tto the easte ernmost parrt. This is a difference of o 0.1 С to 0.2 С.

etween predic cted air temp perature changes estimated in central p point A and po oint B. Table 3. Difference be dТ(A ) ‐dТ (Б)  о ( C)

DJF 

MAM 

Year 

H   High

Mediu um  high h 

Medium

Medium  low 

Low 

2025 

00.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

‐0.1  

2050 

00.0 

0.0 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0  

2075 

00.1 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0  

2100 

00.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

‐0.1  

2025 

‐‐0.1 

‐0.1 1 

‐0.1 

0.0 

0.0  

2050 

‐‐0.1 

0.0 

‐0.1 

0.0 

‐0.1  

2075 

‐‐0.2 

‐0.2 2 

‐0.1 

‐0.1 

0.0  

2100 

‐‐0.3 

‐0.2 2 

‐0.2 

‐0.1 

‐0.1  

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2025  JJA 

SON 

 M Mean annual 

‐‐0.1 

‐0.1 1 

United Nattions Developme ent Programme

0.0 

0.0 

0.0  

2050 

00.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

‐0.1  

2075 

‐‐0.1 

‐0.1 1 

‐0.1 

0.0 

‐0.1  

2100 

‐‐0.1 

‐0.1 1 

‐0.1 

‐0.1 

0.0  

2025 

00.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.1 

0.0  

2050 

00.0 

0.0 

0.1 

0.0 

0.1  

2075 

00.1 

0.0 

0.1 

0.1 

0.1  

2100 

00.2 

0.1 

0.1 

0.0 

0.1  

2025 

00.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0  

2050 

00.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.1  

2075 

‐‐0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

‐0.1 

0.0  

2100 

‐‐0.1 

‐0.1 1 

0.0 

‐0.1 

‐0.1  

Although these differen A nces between predicte ed air tempe erature chan nges at cen ntral point A о о and cen ntral point B appear slight, they ra ange from --0.3 С to 0.2 С. The differences d indicate the e influencce of local geographic g situations on o climate cconditions and a change es. Neverthe eless, these e differencces are no ot so dramatic to req quire significantly diffferent meassures to be e taken forr adaptation to clima ate changess and mitiga ation related d to increasses in avera age air temp peratures in n the com ming period at the poin nts A and B. B For the w whole territo ory of Mace edonia, onlyy the resultss generatted from cen ntral point A (which is representattive of almost three qua arters of the e territory of Macedo onia) could be used witth a great ce ertainty. PRECIP PITATION C CHANGE PREDICTION NS T Table 4 presents predicctions of changes in the e quantity o of precipitation in centra al point A. о

о

Table 4. Predicted prrecipitation quantity changes (%) in ce entral point A (41.25 N, 21.25 E) forr: 2025, 2050 0, 2075 and d 2100, for fou ur seasons (D DJF- winter, М МАM – spring g, ЈЈА – summ mer, SON –au utumn) and at annual leve el (Year)

2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2100 

2100 

2075 

2050 

2075 

2025 

 Year/A 

2100 

2075 

SON N/A 

JJA /A

2075 

Low  Medium low  Medium  Medium  high  High 

MAM /A A

2050 

 

DJF /A 2025 

A  о (41.25  N,  о 21.25  E) 

‐1 

‐‐3 

‐2 

‐1 

‐2 

‐5

‐77

‐9

‐4

‐12

‐29

‐336

‐1

‐5

‐8 

‐9 

‐22 

‐6

‐8

‐8

‐1 

‐‐4 

‐3 

‐2 

‐2 

‐6

‐1 10

‐12

‐6

‐15

‐38

‐447

‐1

‐7

‐10 

‐13 

‐33 

‐8

‐10

‐12

‐3 

‐‐6 

‐7 

‐9 

‐3 

‐8

‐1 13

‐17

‐13

‐25

‐46

‐557

‐2

‐9

‐14 

‐20 

‐44 

‐10

‐15

‐19

‐4 

‐‐8 

‐11 

‐16 

‐4 

‐9 

‐1 17

‐23

‐20

‐38 

‐54

‐666

‐4 

‐11

‐21 

‐27 

‐55 

‐11

‐21

‐27

‐5 

‐1 10 

‐14 

‐20 

‐5 

‐12

‐2 21

‐29

‐25

‐48

‐68

‐880

‐5

‐14

‐25 

‐34 

‐66 

‐14

‐25

‐33

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IIt can be se een that all tthe values a are negative e. This mea ans that a de ecrease in p precipitation n quantitie es is prediccted in the period 202 25–2100. Th he value in n front of brrackets is tthe average e change.. The value es inside th he brackets are: the m maximum (a absolute hig ghest) chan nge and the e minimum m (absolute e lowest) cha ange. The results are as ffollows: Graph 12. Prediction of preecipitation changge in  winter seaason

Winte er season (De ecember, Jan nuary, Febru uary):

DJF/A

- a decrease of -3 [-1 / -5]%, - a decrease of -6 [-3 / -10 0]%, - a decrease of -7 [ -2 /-14 4]%, - a decrease of -9 [-1 / -20 0]%.

These results r are sh hown in Grap ph 12.

2025

2050

2075

2100

0

Lo ow Medium Low

‐5 dP (%)

2025 2050 2075 2100

 

Medium

‐10

Medium high

‐15

Hiigh

‐20 Graph 13. Prediction of preecipitation changge in  spring seaason

Spring season (Ma arch, April, Ma ay):

MAM/A

- a decrease of -3 [-2 / -5]%, - a decrease of -8 [-5 / -12 2]%, - a decrease of -13 [ -7 /-2 21]%, - a decrease of -17 [-9 / -2 29]%.

These results r are sh hown in Grap ph 13.

 

2025

2050

2075

0 ‐5 dP (%)

2025 2050 2075 2100

2100

Lo ow M Medium Low

‐10

M Medium

‐15

M Medium high

‐20 ‐25

High

‐30

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Graph 14. Prediction of preecipitation changge in  summer seeason

Summe er season (Ju une, July, Au ugust):

JJA /A

- a decrease of -13 [-4 / -2 25] %, - a decrease of -25 [-12 / -48] %, - a decrease of -46 [ -29 /--68]%, - a decrease of -57 [-36 / -80] %.

These results r are sh hown in Grap ph 14.

2025

dP (%)

2025 2050 2075 2100

 

2050

2075

2100

0 ‐10 ‐20 ‐30 ‐40 ‐50 ‐60 ‐70 ‐80

Lo ow M Medium Low M Medium M Medium high High

Graph 15. Prediction of preecipitation changge in  autumn season

Autumn n season (Se eptember, Occtober, Novem mber):

SON/A

- a decrease of -2 [-1 / -5] %, - a decrease of -9 [-5 / -14 4] %, - a decrease of -14 [ -8 /-2 25]%, - a decrease of -20 [-9 / -3 34] %.

These results r are sh hown in Grap ph 15.

2025

dP (%)

2025 2050 2075 2100

 

2050

2075

2100

0 ‐5 ‐10 ‐15 ‐20 ‐25 ‐30 ‐35

Lo ow M Medium Low M Medium M Medium high High

Graph 16. Prediction of preecipitation changge on  annual leevel

At annu ual level:

Year/A

These results r are sh hown in Grap ph 16.

 

2025

dP (%)

2025 - a decrease o of -4 [-2 / -6] %, 2050 - a decrease o of -10 [-6 / -14 4] %, 2075 - a decrease o of -15 [ -8 /-25]%, 2100 - a decrease o of -19 [-8 / -33] %.

2050

2075

0 ‐5 ‐10 ‐15 ‐20 ‐25 ‐30 ‐35

2100

Lo ow M Medium Low M Medium M Medium high H High

IIn all seaso ons and at a annual level there is a decrease o of precipitattion quantities, with the e maximu um decrease e in the sum mmer seaso on. Graphs 17, 18 and 19 show ch hanges in th he predicted d

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average e monthly q quantities off precipitatio on in centra al point A b by months, for each se elected yearr and for high, mediu um and low intensity. Grap ph 17. Annual course of the greatest predicted preecipitation  changes for  2025, 2050, 22075 and 2100 0 dP (%)

‐20

High 255

‐40

High 500

‐60

High 755

‐80

High 1000

‐100

  Grap ph 18. Annual cou urse of the mediu um predicted preecipitation  changes for  2025, 2050, 22075 and 2100 20

dP (%)

0

Medium 255

‐20

Medium 500

‐40

Medium 755

‐60

Medium 1000

‐80

  Grraph 19. Annual ccourse of the leasst predicted preciipitation  changes for  2025, 2050, 22075 and 2100 5 dP (%)

‐5 ‐15 ‐25 ‐35 ‐45

Low 255 Low 500 Low 755 Low 1000

  The following co onclusions can be draw wn from the graphs: 

For all selected years, all precipittation chang F ges are neg gative. (Thiss means a decrease in n m mean precip pitation sum ms.)

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   



United Nattions Developme ent Programme

IIn the areass with high change, the ere is only an insignificcant increasse in precip pitation (1%)) i February for 2025. in I the areass of low cha In anges (Gra aph 19), the ere is an inccrease of prrecipitation in Februaryy f all yearss (up to 5%), in April forr 2025, in Ju for uly and Novvember for 2 2025, I the areass of medium In m changes there is a sliight (up to 3 3%) increasse in precipitation for all y years in Feb bruary for 2025, T intensitty of change The es is greate est in the warm w part off the year. In July and August, the e iintensity off changes might be 100%, 1 mea aning these e months w will probably have no o p precipitation n at all. I the cold period of the year de In ecreases in n precipitation of up to o 40% of tthe average e m monthly qua antities are predicted.

Graphs 20, 21, and 22 G 2 show pred dicted chan nges in the quantity of precipitatio on in central poin nt A by seassons (quarte ers). Graph h 20. Seasonal ch hange of the greaatest predicted prrecipitation  changes for  2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 

dP (%)

0 ‐20

High 25

‐40

High 50 High 75

‐60

High 100 ‐80 DJF/А

М МАМ/А

JJA //А

SON/А

Graaph 21. Seasonal change of the m medium predicted d precipitatio changes for  2025, 2050, 2075 and 21000  0

dP (%)

‐10 Med

‐20 ‐30

Med

‐40

Med

‐50

Med

‐60 DJF/А

М МАМ/А

JJA //А

SON/А

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onal change of th he least predicted d precipitation  Graph 22. Seaso chan nges for  2025, 20050, 2075 and 21100  0

dP (%)

‐10

Lo ow 25

‐20

Lo ow 50

‐30

Lo ow 75 Lo ow 100

‐440 DJF/А

МАМ/А

JJA /А

SO ON/А

A seasonall (quarter) le At evel, the following chan nges can be e seen:    

A decrease in average precipitatio on quantity. F all yearrs (2025–21 For 100) there iis maximum m decrease in precipita ation in sum mmer (June, J July and Au ugust), I summer, the precipittation decre In ease will be greater and d faster than n in other se easons. D Decreases w will be more e moderate in the cold part of the yyear. F From the ab bove data, tthe following g predictions can be ma ade:

 



IIt is probablle that there e will be a ccontinuous d decrease in the quantitty of precipitation in the e p period 2025 5–2100. T The predictted change es will be most intensse in the w warm part of the yea ar, meaning g s summers w be drier and will a some summer mon nths (July, A August) mayy have preccipitation. (In n t previouss period with archived data, the d some months were also reco orded as ha aving had no o p precipitation n.) A less inten nse decrease in precipittation is exp pected in the e cold part of o the year.

T Table 5 sho ows predicte ed changes in the quan ntity of precipitation in ccentral pointt B.

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о

Table 5. Predicted prrecipitation quantity changes (%) in ce entral point B (41.25 N, 23.75 E) forr: 2025, 2050 0, d 2100, for fo our seasons ((DJF- winter,, МАM – spring, ЈЈА – su ummer, SON –autumn ) an nd on annua al 2075 and level (Yea ar)

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2075 

2100 

2025 

2050 

2100 

2025 

2075 

2100 

Low 

‐1 

‐2 

‐2 

‐1 

‐2 

‐5

‐8

‐9

‐6

‐14

‐32

‐‐39

0

‐5

‐8 

‐10 

‐‐3 

‐6

‐8

‐9

Medium low 

‐1 

‐3 

‐3 

‐2 

‐3 

‐7

‐11

‐12

‐9

‐18

‐42

‐‐51

‐1

‐6

‐11 

‐14 

‐‐4 

‐9

‐11

‐12

 

2075 

2050 

Year/B

2025 

SO ON/B

2100 

JJA /B

2075 

MAM /B

2050 

DJF /B 2025 

B  о (41.25  N,  о 23.75  E) 

Medium m 

‐3 

‐6 

‐6 

‐8 

‐4 

‐8

‐14

‐17

‐16

‐28

‐50

‐‐61

‐2

‐9

‐15 

‐20 

‐‐4 

‐10

‐15

‐20

Medium h high 

‐4 

‐8 

‐11 

‐144 

‐4 

‐10

‐18

‐24

‐25

‐42

‐59

‐‐71

‐4

‐11 

‐21 

‐28 

‐‐5 

‐12

‐21

‐28

High 

‐5 

‐10 

‐13 

‐199 

‐6 

‐12

‐22

‐30

‐30

‐53

‐74

‐‐87

‐5

‐14 

‐26 

‐35 

‐‐6 

‐14

‐26

‐34

T The results for central point B de escribe the change in the t quantityy of precipittation in the e easternmost part of o Macedonia. The anallysis made of results fo or point A are also valid d for resultss in point B, with the exception of o a slight diifference in the change es. T change The es in the qu uantity of pre ecipitation ffor each yea ar by seaso ons and at a annual leve el are give en below: Winter sseason (Deccember, Jan nuary, Febrruary):  2025 2 – a de ecrease of -3 - [-1 / -5]% %,  2050 2 – a de ecrease of -6 - [-2 / -10]% %,  2075 2 – a de ecrease of -6 - [ -2 /-13]% %,  2100 2 – a de ecrease of -8 - [-1 / -19]% %. Spring sseason (Ma arch, April, M May):  2025 2 – a de ecrease of -4 - [-2 / -6]% %,  2050 2 – a de ecrease of -8 - [-5 / -12]% %,  2075 2 – a de ecrease of -14 - [ -8 /-22 2]%,  2100 2 – a de ecrease of -17 - [-9 / -30 0]%. Summe er season (June, July, A August):  2025 2 – a de ecrease of -16 - [-6 / -30 0]%,  2050 2 – a de ecrease of -28 - [-14 / -5 53]%,  2075 2 – a de ecrease of -50 - [ -32 /-7 74]%,  2100 2 – a de ecrease of -61 - [-39 / -8 87]%.

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Autumn season (Se eptember, October, O No ovember):  2025 2 – a de ecrease of -2 - [0 / -5]% %,  2050 2 – a de ecrease of -9 - [-5 / -14]% %,  2075 2 – a de ecrease of -15 - [ -8 / -26 6]%,  2100 2 – a de ecrease of -20 - [-10 / -3 35]%. Annual level:  2025 2 – a de ecrease of  2050 2 – a de ecrease of  2075 2 – a de ecrease of  2100 2 – a de ecrease of

--4 [-3 / -6]% %, - [-6 / -14 -10 4]%, - [ -8 / -26 -15 6]%, - [-9 / -34 -20 4]%.

Table 6 sho T ows differen nces betwe een predicte ed quantity precipitatio on changes for point A and poin nt B. T followin The ng observations can be e made: I winter (D In DJF) there is i no differe ence in the changes fo or low and medium lo ow changes; howeve er, for mediium, mediu um high an nd high cha anges the differences between p precipitation n changess are positive. Althoug gh these diffferences are slight (up to 1%), this is an in ndicator that there will probably be a greatter decrease e in precipitation in the e parts of th he territory covered byy point A than in the easternmosst part. IIn the otherr part of the e year, the difference b between ch hanges in point p A and point B are e between n 1% to -6%. This ind dicates a greater decrrease in pre ecipitation in the easte ern parts of Macedo onia in the w warmer parrt of the yea ar, especiallly in summe er (JJA), than in any o other part off the territory. A annual level there is negative At e difference for mean high and high change es for 2050, 2075 an nd 2100.

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Table 6. Differences b between pred dicted precipitation quantitty changes es stimated for central c point A and point B.

dP(A ) ‐d dP(B) (%)) 

DJFF 

MAM M 

JJA A 

SON N 

Mean an nnual   

Yearr 

Low 

Medium low

Medium 

Medium high h 

High 

2025 5 

0

0

0

0



2050 0 

0

0

0

1



2075 5 

0

0

0

1

1  1 

2100 0 

0

0

1

1

2025 5 

‐1

‐1

‐1

0



2050 0 

0

0

‐1

0

‐1 

2075 5 

0

0

‐1

‐1

‐1 

2100 0 

0

0

0

‐1

‐1 

2025 5 

‐2

‐3

‐3

‐4

‐5 

2050 0 

‐2

‐3

‐3

‐4

‐5 

2075 5 

‐3

‐4

‐5

‐5

‐6 

2100 0 

‐4

‐4

‐4

‐5

‐6 

2025 5 

0

0

0

0



2050 0 

1

1

0

0



2075 5 

0

0

‐1

‐1

‐1 

2100 0 

‐1

‐1

0

‐1

‐1 

2025 5 

0

0

0

0



2050 0 

0

0

0

0

‐1 

2075 5 

0

0

0

‐1

‐1 

2100 0 

0

0

0

‐1

‐1 

The differen T nces between the data a obtained for f points A and B for temperaturres are also o valid fo or predicte ed precipita ation chang ges. Althou ugh these difference es between n predicted d precipita ation chang ges in centra al points A and B are slight, they move from m 1% to -6% %, indicating g the influ uence of th he local geo ographical situation s on n climate co onditions an nd changess. Howeverr, these differences a are not dram matic and g generally do o not requirre significan ntly differen nt measuress and actiivities to adapt to and mitigate m clim mate changes. This me eans that th he results ge enerated forr central point A, wh hich coverss almost three quarterrs of the te erritory, cou uld be used d with great certaintyy for the wh hole territoryy of Macedo onia.

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SUMM MARY The results presented here were obtained ussing the MA T AGICC/SCE ENGEN v. 5.3 5 software e package e. Changes in average e air temperature and p precipitation quantities w were selectted from the e offered possibilitie es as an indicator o of climate change in n the perio od 2025–2 2100. IPCC C recomm mendations were used in the sele ection of cliimate scenarios and cclimate sensitivity. The e resolutio on of the da ata produced by the sce enario gene erator is 2.5о х 2.5о, so data in two points were e generatted for the te erritory of M Macedonia. I general, the situation of air tem In mperature an nd precipita ation for the selected ch haracteristicc years iss as follows:  Positive change es are pred dicted throu ughout the whole w perio od 2025–2100 and an increase in n temp perature is probable.  The temperatu ure increase e will be m most intensive and sig gnificant in the summ mer and the e sum mmers will prrobably be iincreasinglyy warmer.  It iss likely thatt the spring g and summer temperature chan nges (and therefore the average e a) will be h seassonal air temperaturess in the easstern part off Macedonia higher comp pared to the e rest of Macedon nia.  There will be a continual decrease d in precipitatio on. The grea atest chang ges in the warm w part off the year are p perceptible at seasona al and ann nual level. A At monthlyy level, a to otal lack off preccipitation is probable in July and A August, while e in February there willl be a minim mal increase e whe en compared with the average va alues, but th his increase e will not be e noticeable at annual leve el.  In the warm part p of the year, the precipitatio on changess in the ea astern partss are more e seve ere compare ed to the rest of Maced donia.  The differencess between tthe estimate ed temperatture and pre ecipitation cchanges forr the central poin nts A and B are slight, as shown above. The e difference es in tempe erature could be from о о 0.3 С to 0.2 С, and they ccould vary frrom season n to season and year to o year. It is similar with h the precipitation p n, difference es in changes are in an n interval of -6% to 1%. These diffe erences are e sligh ht, howeverr, and will n not essentia ally influencce decision-making on n adaptation n to climate e chan nges and m mitigation off their conssequences. They should be seen as an indiccator of the e influ uence of geo ographic loccation on climate change intensityy. Therefore e, the resultss generated d for central point A, which is repressentative fo or almost tthree quarters of the territory off Maccedonia, can n be used w with great ce ertainty for the whole te erritory of Ma acedonia.  In accordance w with the me ethodology of the studyy, involving averaging the results of six basicc scen narios, the presented results should be take en only as a guidance. The signifficance and d influ uence of the e absolute values v for th he temperatture and pre ecipitation cchanges as well as the e diffe erences bettween these e changes will depend on the m macro and micro locattions of the e regio ons taken in nto considerration.

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 For a more d detailed exxplanation of changes of temp perature, prrecipitation and otherr eorological parameterss (e.g. solar radiation, wind, evap poration, etcc.) and for a complete e mete unde erstanding of the obta ained resultts, a more detailed analysis and d use of m mathematical mod dels will be necessaryy. This could be realized by the use of Reg gional Clima ate Models, whicch is related d to sustainable capacity building regarding q qualitative h hardware, so oftware and d perssonnel logistics.  The climate ch hanges pressented here e in terms o of air temp perature and d precipitation develop p grad dually, and the resultss are remarrkable overr a longer period. The e use of m mathematical mod dels, GCMs and RCMss, which are e continuallyy updated b by the inclussion of new w knowledge e on tthe atmosphere and cclimate and their relatio on with hum man influen nce, enable permanent imprrovement o of predictio ons for fu uture climate conditio ons. This will contrib bute to an n imprrovement in n the qualityy and effecctiveness of measures and decisio ons related to adapting g to cllimate changes and mittigating the negative efffects of these changess. COMPA ARISON WITH OTHER R RESULTS S A comparison is given below of the results o obtained forr the chang ges in temperature and d precipita ation in the territory of Macedonia a, as describ bed above, with earlierr results obttained using g other tools. COMPA ARISON B BETWEEN RESULTS OBTAINE ED BY MA AGICC/SCE ENGEN v. 5.3 AND D MAGICC C/SCENGE EN v. 4.1. I 2006, Dr Klemen Bergant In B worked out sccenarios for climate changes in Macedonia. MAGICC C/SCENGE EN v. 4.1 wa as used in this t elabora ation in orde er to genera ate data on changes at о о the geog graphical po oint with coo ordinates 4 41.5 N and 21.5 Е. T Table 7 an nd Graph 2 23 show the e difference es between n results fo or average changes in n average e annual tem mperature obtained o in these t two ca ases. Table 7. Difference b between pred dicted mean a air temperatu ure changes o obtained by MAGICC/SCE ENGEN v. 5.3 3 nd Klemen B.. (2006). The difference d is presented as s absolute and d in percenta age (2012) an

M Mean changes 

Y Year 

Year  202 25  205 50  207 75  210 00 

M/S vv. 5.3, /2012 dT(°C) 

Kle emen B., /200 06 dT(°C) 

Abso olute differrence dT((°C) 

Re elative diffe erence (   (%)

1.2  2  3.1  3.9 

1 1.9 2.9 3.8

0.2  0.1  0.2  0.1 

17  5  6  3 

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Predicted ttemperature P e changes are shown n on the le eft ordinate e and the differencess between n prediction ns in both cases are represente ed on the right ordinate, expre essed as a percenta age. Absolu ute differencces are in tthe interval of 0.1°C to o 0.2°C in th he whole pe eriod 2025– – 2100. The T new ressults predictt greater ch hanges at a annual levell than the e earlier results. If these e differencces are sho own proporrtionally, a decrease in n difference es can be remarked a approaching g 2100, frrom 17% in 2025 to 3% % in 2100.

Graph 23. A Air temperaturre change valu ues

dT(C)

4.5 5

18 8

17

4

16 6

3.5 5

14 4

3

12 2

2.5 5

10 0

2

8

6 5

1.5 5 1

3

Diffeerence (%)

6

M/S v. 5.3 3, 2012

4

Klem men B., 2006

2

0.5 5

0

0 2025

2050

2075

2100

Yearr/A Graph h 23. Comparrison of mean n changes in average ann nual air temp perature obta ained in this p paper with MAGIC CC / SCENG GEN v. 5.3 (2 2012) and the e results of Bergant K. (20 006). The diffference is exxpressed in% re elative to the actual valuess

T Table 8 an nd Graph 2 24 show diffferences b between the e average predicted p precipitation n quantitie es obtained by both analyses. Both analyses show a deccrease in pre ecipitation, but the new w predictio ons predict greater and more inte ensive decrreases. An increase off absolute difference d iss seen ap pproaching 2 2100, from -1% in 2025 5 to -7% in 2100.

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Table 8. Difference D be etween predic cted mean an nnual precipittation change es obtained by MAGICC/SC CENGEN v. 5.3 (2012 2) and Klemen n B. (2006). Th he difference is presented d as absolute and in percen ntage

Mean changess 

Yearr 

Year /point A 

2025 5  2050 0  2075 5  2100 0 

MAGICC/SCEN GEN v. 5.3 5 /2012 (%) 

Klemen B B., /2006 (%)

A Absolute d difference

-4 -10 -15 -19

-3 -5 -8 -13

-1  -5  -7  -6 

 

Predicted p P precipitation changes in n percentage are show wn on the lefft ordinate in i Graph 24 4 and the e absolute d differences between ne ew and old results are given on the right ord dinate. The e increase es in the ab bsolute value es of differe ences are re emarkable. Graph 24. Precipitation n change valuees 0

0 2025

dP(%)

‐5

2050

2075

0 2100

‐1

‐1 ‐2 ‐3

‐10

‐4 ‐15

‐5

‐5

‐6

‐20 ‐7 ‐25

‐6

Absolute differencee (%) M/S v. 5.3, 201 12 Klemen B B. , 2006

‐7 ‐8

Graph 24 4. Compariso on of change es in precipittation obtaine ed in this paper with MAGICC / SCENGEN v. 5.3 3 (2012) and Clement B results.(20 006).

T basic ccause for the difference The es in these results is th he difference e in the verrsions of the e software e used. In tthe previouss version, 4 4.1, products of 4 mode els are used and the resolution r off the obta ained resultss was 5о х 5о. Productss of 18 models are used in version n 5.3 and th he resolution n of the obtained resu ults is 2.5о х 2.5о. The new va T alues for climate senssitivity given n in the IPC CC’s Fourth h Assessme ent Report / AR4 are e used in the e latest ana alysis.

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COMPARISON WITH W RESULTS FROM M THE SOU UTH EAST EUROPEAN VIRTUAL L CLIMATE E GE CENTRE E (SEEVCC CC, Serbia, Belgrade) CHANG The SEEVCCC C has publisshed the ressults of clim mate change e predictions obtained by use of a regional climate mo odel. This m model has a resolution o of 0.25о and d employs th hree climate e scenarios. Scenario А1B is used fo or temperature and pre ecipitation change c pre edictions forr the period d 2001–20 030. The te erritory of Ma acedonia is covered byy two valuess. Acco ording to the SEEVC CCC, in the eastern n part of Macedonia the avera age annua al tempera ature chang ge is in an iinterval from m 0.8оС to 0.9оС and in the westtern part the e interval iss from 0.9 9 оС to 1.0оС. С Accordin ng to MAGIICC/SCENG GEN v. 5.3 for 2025, fo or the whole e territory of о о Macedo onia the ave erage annua al change is 1.2 С, in a probable in nterval from 0.8 С to 1.6 оС. Preccipitation ch hanges at a annual level, according to SEEVCC CC, range in i an interva al from 5% % in easte ern parts to o -5% in th he western parts. Acco ording to M MAGICC/SCENGEN v. 5.3, for the e whole te erritory the cchanges are e -4% in a probable intterval from -2% to -6%. edictions fo Scenario А1В is also used d for temperrature and precipitation p n change pre or the period d age annual temperaturre changess range in an interval from 2.4оС to 2.6оС. 2071–2100. Avera According to MAG GICC/SCENGEN v. 5.3 3, these ch hanges range around 3.9 оС, in a probable e interval from 1.7оС to 7.2оС forr the whole territory. Preccipitation ch hanges acco ording to SE EEVCCC arre in an inte erval from 0 to 5% in th he east and d from -5% % to -30% in the westt. According g to MAGIC CC/SCENGE EN v. 5.3, in n the eastern parts the e changess are -20%, in a proba able intervall from -9% to -34% and in the we est -19%, in a probable e interval from -8% to o -33%. Com mparison in ndicates sim milar resultss in the period up to o 2025/203 30. There are greaterr differencces for the p period up to 2100. Scenario А2 is used for pre edictions in the period 2071–2100 0. In the easstern part off Macedonia a, о о о tempera ature chang ges at annu ual level are e in an inte erval from 3 3.4 С to 3.6 6 С and fro om 3.6 С to o 3.8оС in n the west. A According to o MAGICC/SCENGEN v. 5.3, thesse changes range around 3.9оС, in n о о a proba able interval from 1.7 С to 7.2 С fo or the whole territory. The close similarity off the resultss obtained d should be e remarked. Preccipitation ch hanges at an nnual level, according to SEEVCC CC, are in th he range fro om 0% to -5 5% in the e east, and fro om -5% to -15% in the e west. Acccording to MAGICC/SC M CENGEN v. 5.3, in the e eastern parts the cchanges are e -20%, in th he probable e interval fro om -9% to --34%, and in n the west 19%, in the probab ble interval ffrom -8% to o -33%. The ere is a parrtial congrue ence with re egard to the e changess in precipitation.

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COMPA ARISON WITH THE RE ESULTS OF F THE CLIM MATE SERV VICE CENT TER (CSC - Germany) Acco ording to the publicly isssued resultts of the CS SC using reg gional clima ate model and scenario o о А1В, forr one centra al point the change of a average annual temperature in 21 100 will be 3 3.8 С with a probable e interval fro om 2.3оС to o 6.3оС. Acccording to M MAGICC/SC CENGEN v. 5.3, these cchanges will be arou und 3.9оС, in a proba able interva al from 1.7оС to 7.2оС for the w whole territo ory. A great similaritty in the obta ained resultts is remarkked. The decrease iin average annual preccipitation is -12% with a probable e span of -7 7% to -28%. According to MAG GICC/SCEN NGEN v. 5.3 in the eastern e partts the chan nges are -2 20% in the e probable e interval frrom -9% to o -34%, and in the westt it is -19% % in the prob bable intervval from -8% % to -33% %. Some closseness of obtained results is rema arked. Grap ph 25 show ws the pred dicted chang ges in averrage annual temperatu ure in the period 2025-2100, acccording to MAGICC/SCENGEN v.5 5.3, SEEVCC CC and CSC C. Graph 25. Mean aannual air temp perature changge values

4.5 4 3.5

M/S v. 5.3, (201 12)

dT(oC)

3 2.5

SEEVCC (A1B, A2, 2 2012)

2 1.5

CSC (2012)

1 0.5 0 20 025

2050

2075

2100

 

Grraph 25. Com mparison of cchanges in m mean annuall air tempera ature obtained in this pa aper with MA AGICC / SCENGEN v.5.3,, SEEVCCC and CSC.

Because e in the SE EEVCCC there are ressults only fo or the period d 2001–203 30 and for 2 2071–2100, the poin nts are not connected with a line. A trend of o increasing g temperatu ure is seen in all three e cases. A different leve el of similaritty can be seen compa aring results obtained b by MAGICC//SCENGEN N v. 5.3 an nd those ob btained by re egional clim mate modelss.

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The primary ca ause for the differencess in the resu ults is that o of different principles p o estimation of n ges. SEEVC CCC and CS SC use a re egional mathematical m model and o one climate scenario for of chang each esstimation. In n MAGICC//SCENGEN, the preparred results from f 18 mo odels are used and fina al results a are obtaine ed by avera aging. The b basic IPCC recommendation is allso taken in nto account, acceptin ng that the ere is curre ently no sing gle climate scenario th hat can be favoured and a thus an n ensemb ble method principle should s be a applied with h result avveraging. Th he significa ance of thiss recomm mendation ca an be seen in the follow wing graphss. G Graphs 26,, 27 and 28 8 show cha anges in avverage ann nual temperrature and changes in n average e annual pre ecipitation fo or all six sce enarios (А1B-AIM, A1F FI-MI, A1T-M MES, A2-AS SF, B1-IMA, B2-MES S) and the average vvalue (exprressed with h the thicke est line in graphs) fo or the three e recomm mended valu ues of clim mate sensitivvity: 2.0оС, 3.0оС and d 4.5оС. C Climate sen nsitivity is a measure e of the influence of te emperature change on the climate e system an nd representts a change e in the b balance of the globall average surface s air temperature, corresp ponding to sustainable e doubling g of atmosp pheric carbo on dioxide (С СО2). The g graphs clea arly show a difference b between the e results obtained fo or different scenarios a and the vallue of clima ate sensitivity, which explains e the e IPCC’s recommend dation for tthe use of e ensemble sscenarios and a the non nexistence of a single e “best” sccenario.

Graph 26. Averagge annual air tem mperature changee  for climate sensitivity  2.0 С

Graph 29. A Average annual p precipitation change for  climate sensitivity 2.0С

4.5

0 2025

4

A1 1B‐AIM

3.5

2075

‐5

A1 1FI‐MI

3

A1 1T‐MES

2.5 2

A2 2‐ASF

1.5

B11‐IMA

1

B22‐MES

0.5

Mean

2100 A1B‐AIM A1FI‐MI

dP(%)

dT(C)

2050

‐10

A1T‐MES A2‐ASF

‐15

B1‐IMA B2‐MES

‐20

Mean

0 2025

20550

2075

21000

‐25

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Graph 27. Avverage annual airr temperature chaange  for climate  sensitivvity  3.0 С 

Graph 30. A Average annual p precipitation change for  climate  sensitivity  3.0С

0

6 A1 1B‐AIM

5

202 25 2050 2075 5 2100

A1 1T‐MES 3

A2 2‐ASF

2

B11‐IMA

1

B22‐MES

2025

20500

2075

A1T‐MES

‐15

A2‐ASF B1‐IMA

‐20

B2‐MES

‐25

Mean

0

A1B‐AIM A1FI‐MI

‐10 dP(%)

dT(C)

‐5

A1 1FI‐MI

4

21000

Mean

‐30

Graph 28. Averagge annual air tem mperature changee  for cliimate sensitivity  4.5С 

Graph 31. A Average annual p precipitation change for  climate sensitivity 4.5С 

8

0

6 5 4

2 1 0 2025

20500

2075

21000

2050

2075

2100

‐5

A1 1FI‐MI

‐10

A1FI‐MI

A1 1T‐MES

‐15

A1T‐MES

‐20

A2‐ASF

B11‐IMA

‐25

B1‐IMA

B22‐MES

‐30

B2‐MES

Mean

‐35

Mean

A2 2‐ASF

3

2025

A1 1B‐AIM

dP(%)

7

dT(C)

United Nattions Developme ent Programme

A1B‐AIM

‐40

C CONCLUSI ION This report presents data for the purpose off predicting climate cha T anges in Macedonia in n the perio od 2025–21 100. The rep port’s predicctions for air temperatu ure and preccipitation changes were e produce ed by mathe ematical too ols that inclu ude the latesst knowledg ge available e about the a atmosphere e and the climate and d the natura al and anthrropogenic fa actors which influence the change es. Because e our currrent knowle edge is still not sufficien nt to describe the deve elopment off all natural processes, howeve er, the resultts presented d here cann not be considered ‘final’’ or absolute ely accurate e. Increased d knowled dge about tthe atmosph here, weath her and clim mate, aboutt the impacct of human n activity on n nature a and the cou urse of natu ural change es, will bring g continuous improvem ments in datta on future e climate conditions. The finding gs presente ed here sho ould thus be e treated no ot only as a approximate e ors of the w ways in whicch society needs n to prrepare to adapt to and d results but as expllicit indicato

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mitigate e the conse equences off climate ch hange by pu ursuing mo ore sustaina able develop pment in all sectors.. T The resultss presente ed in this analysis were w obtained by th he applicattion of the e MAGICC C/SCENGE EN software e package, which, on the basis of estimatted average e global airr tempera ature and th he results off 18 global ccirculation m models (GC CM), downsccaled the ch hanges from m global to o local levell. The final rresults presented here were obtain ned by averraging. T The advanttage of the e MAGICC/SCENGEN N software is that it enables results to be e obtained d relatively swiftly with the use of rrelatively lim mited compu uter resourcces. The dissadvantagess e that it do of this ssoftware are oes not allow w for varyin ng local parameters (e except for some s globa al parameters such a as climate ssensitivity) or for obta aining resultts for a sm mall region ffor a single e phical point.. geograp O way off overcoming One g these softtware limitattions is to use regional climate mo odels (RCM)). These a are mathem matical models in which the factorrs that influ uence climate and clim mate change e are desscribed ma athematicallly. Such models m req quire considerable ha ardware an nd software e resource es. Howeve er, the basiic advantag ge of region nal climate models is that they enable e more e detailed d results to b be obtained d both spatia ally and tem mporally. Altthough climate change e predictionss for long ger periods are not pe erformed co ontinuously, these mo odels can p produce pre edictions forr weatherr and clima ate condition ns for seve eral months and seaso ons in adva ance. For exxample, the e SEEVCCC in Belgrrade beginss an regiona al climate mo odel on the sixteenth day d of each month. Thiss model p produces a long-term forecast for 7 monthss (~215 dayys) and a sspatial resolution of 35 5 kilometrres, providiing results for averag ge air tem mperature fo or 2 m, p precipitation quantities, tempera ature deviattions (anom malies) and p precipitation n deviationss from the a average 30--year valuess (normals) for the period 1961–1990. Th hese results are given n for each single month and forr ns’ of three months. These T long--term foreccasts enable e activities to be und dertaken forr ‘season adapting g to and mittigating the consequences of non--standard climate chang ges in the p period which h directly follows. G Given the ssmall territo orial area off Macedonia, it is obvvious that GCMs G and their t resultss (with a space reso olution of se everal hund dred kilometres) are no ot appropria ate since such modelss cannot provide suffficiently detailed inform mation at lo ocal level. O Obtaining such results is possible e using R RCMs, espe ecially for generating sseasonal forecasts for some regio ons in Maccedonia with h specific climate characteristicss. The deve elopment and a use of an a RCM in Macedonia a that takess local climate characteristics into consid deration wo ould enable e continuous improvem ment in the e accuraccy of predictions. In this way th he Hydrom meteorologiccal Service of Maced donia would d strength hen its role e in the ove erall spectrrum of mea asures for a adapting to o climate ch hanges and d mitigatin ng the consequences a at global and d local levell.

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wledgemen nts Acknow om M.L. Wig gley of the Na ational Cente er for Atmosp pheric Resea arch in Boulde er, Colorado, I wish to thank Mr. To al explanation ns of the worrking principle es of MAGIC CC/SCENGEN. USA, forr some crucia olleague Bilja ana Krckovskka for languag ge assistance. I wish to thank my co

nces Referen ocuments (h http://www.ipcc.ch/ipcccreports/sress) IPCC Reports and technical do C/SCENGE EN v.5.3: US SER MANUA AL (version 2) MAGICC Bergan,, K., Climate e Change S Scenarios for Macedoniia, 2006 Climate Fact Sheett, Climate S Service Centtre, 2012, G Germany Climate projectionss, SEEVCCC C, Serbia (h http://www.sseevccc.rs)

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