Climate change, water and food security - Food and Agriculture ...

Setting the scene. 5. 2.1. Water, food security and environment. 5. 2.2. IPCC 4th Assessment and the Stern Review. 6. 2.2.1. The IPCC 4th Assessment and ..... Modelling scenarios have been standardized from a set defined by the IPCC ...... Recent outbreaks of large forest fires, together with peat combustion, have added.
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Cover picture: Irrawaddy Delta, Myanmar - September 2008 (© Swiatek Wojtkowiak)

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Climate change, water and food security

by Hugh Turral FAO consultant Jacob Burke and Jean-Marc Faurès FAO Land and Water Division




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ISBN 978-92-5-

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Preface Under the IPCC emissions scenarios, higher temperatures are projected to affect all aspects of the hydrological cycle. More frequent and severe droughts and floods are already apparent, and their impact increases as a growing population becomes more dependent upon a set of atmospheric and hydrological circulations. Climate change will impact the extent and productivity of both irrigated and rainfed agriculture across the globe. Reductions in river runoff and aquifer recharge are expected in the Mediterranean basin and in the semi-arid areas of the Americas, Australia and southern Africa, affecting water availability in regions that are already water-stressed. In Asia, the large contiguous areas of irrigated land that rely on snowmelt and high mountain glaciers for water will be affected by changes in runoff patterns, while highly populated deltas are at risk from a combination of reduced inflows, increased salinity and rising sea levels. Everywhere, rising temperatures will translate into increased crop water demand. Both the livelihoods of rural communities and the food security of a predominantly urban population are therefore at risk from water-related impacts linked primarily to climate variability. The rural poor, who are the most vulnerable, are likely to be disproportionately affected. Various adaptation measures that deal with climate variability and build upon improved land and water management practices have the potential to create resilience to climate change and to enhance water security. They imply a good understanding of the impact of climate change on available water resources and on agricultural systems, and a set of policy choices, and investments and managerial changes to address them. This report summarizes current knowledge of the anticipated impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture. The implications for local and national food security are examined; and the methods and approaches to assess climate change impacts on water and agriculture are discussed. The report emphasize