Climate Scenarios for Olkiluoto on a Time-Scale of 120000 ... - Posiva

Dec 4, 2011 - 4.3 Scenario with ice-free conditions at Olkiluoto during the MIS 3 . ...... Center, (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/gdas/gd_designagrid.html) NOAA ...... NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at.
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POSIVA 2011-04

Climate Scenarios for Olkiluoto on a Time-Scale of 120,000 Years Natalia Pimenoff Ari Venäläinen Heikki Järvinen

December 2011

POSIVA OY Olkiluoto FIN-27160 EURAJOKI, FINLAND Phone (02) 8372 31 (nat.), (+358-2-) 8372 31 (int.) Fax (02) 8372 3809 (nat.), (+358-2-) 8372 3809 (int.)

POSIVA 2011-04

Climate Scenarios for Olkiluoto on a Time-Scale of 120,000 Years Natalia Pimenoff Ari Venäläinen Heikki Järvinen Finnish Meteorological Institute

December 2011 POSIVA OY Olkiluoto FI-27160 EURAJOKI, FINLAND Phone (02) 8372 31 (nat.), (+358-2-) 8372 31 (int.) Fax (02) 8372 3809 (nat.), (+358-2-) 8372 3809 (int.)

ISBN 978-951-652-181-0 ISSN 1239-3096

Posiva-raportti – Posiva Report

Raportin tunnus – Report code

POSIVA 2011-04

Posiva Oy Olkiluoto FI-27160 EURAJOKI, FINLAND Puh. 02-8372 (31) – Int. Tel. +358 2 8372 (31) Tekijä(t) – Author(s)

Julkaisuaika – Date

December 2011

Toimeksiantaja(t) – Commissioned by

Natalia Pimenoff, Ari Venäläinen & Heikki Järvinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute

Posiva Oy

Nimeke – Title

CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR OLKILUOTO ON A TIME-SCALE OF 120,000 YEARS Tiivistelmä – Abstract

Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth’s orbital variations and the atmospheric CO2 concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000–60,000 and 90,000–100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 120,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate.

Avainsanat - Keywords

climate scenarios, regional scale, next glaciation, future climate ISBN

ISSN

ISBN 978-951-652-181-0 Sivumäärä – Number of pages

2

ISSN 1239-3096 Kieli – Language

English

Posiva-raportti – Posiva Report

Raportin tunnus – Report code

POSIVA 2011-04

Posiva Oy Olkiluoto FI-27160 EURAJOKI, FINLAND Puh. 02-8372 (31) – Int. Tel. +358 2 8372 (31)

Julkaisuaika – Date

Joulukuu 2011

Tekijä(t) – Author(s)

Toimeksiantaja(t) – Commissioned by

Natalia Pimenoff, Ari Venäläinen & Heikki Järvinen, Ilmatieteen laitos

Posiva Oy

Nimeke – Title

ILMASTOSKENAARIOITA OLKILUOTOON 120 000 VUODEN AIKASKAALASSA Tii