Comoros - African Development Bank

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AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP

UNION OF THE COMOROS

COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2011-2015 November 2011

Task Team

Peer Reviewers

Steve KAYIZZI-MUGERWA, Regional Director, OREB Solomane KONE, Lead Economist, OREB Donatien KOUASSI, Principal Programme Officer, OREB Philippe TRAPE, Senior Country Economist (Task Manager), OREB

Alain Fabrice EKPO, Principal Macroeconomist, OSGE 1 Korka DIALLO, Principal Programme Officer, ORWA Kalidou DIALLO, Senior Country Economist, ORCE Toussaint HOUENINVO, Principal Country Economist, ORWB

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Table of Contents Page Acronyms, Abbreviations and Currency Equivalents

v

I.

INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………............

1

II

COUNTRY CONTEXT AND PROSPECTS………................................

1

Political, Economic and Social Context…………………..………………

1

2.1.1 Political Context……….………………………………………........... 2.1.2 Economic Context………..…………………………………………... 2.1.3 Social and Crosscutting Aspects……………………………………...

1 2 8

Strategic Options…………………………………………………………..

9

2.2.1 Country Strategic Framework………………………………………... 2.2.2 Challenges and Weaknesses………………………………………….. 2.2.3 Strengths and Opportunities………………………………………......

9 9 10

Recent Aid Coordination/Harmonization Developments and Bank Group’s Current Positioning………...........................................................

11

2.3.1 Aid Coordination………………………………………………........... 2.3.2 Bank’s Positioning in the Country…………………………………… 2.3.3 Assessment and Lessons from Previous Strategy…………………..

11 12 13

BANK GROUP STRATEGY FOR COMOROS FOR 2011-2015……...

14

3.1

Rationale for Bank Group’s Involvement………………..........................

14

3.2

Pillar for Bank Group Strategy…………………………………………..

15

3.3

Deliverables and Targets………………………………………….............

16

3.4

Potential Risks and Mitigation Measures….…………………………….

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3.5

Monitoring and Evaluation………………………………………….........

18

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS……………………….

18

Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………

20

2.1.

2.2

2.3

III.

IV.

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List of Tables, Graphs and Boxes Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6

Export Trend, 2008-2010 ……………………………………………………. Agricultural Production Trend 2007-2010…………………………………… Selected Macroeconomic Indicators………………………………………….. Key Public Finance Indicators………………………………………………... Trend of Governance Indicators in the Indian Ocean (1998-2010)…………... Business Climate in the Indian Ocean………………………………………...

3 3 4 5 6 7

Graph 1 Graph 2 Graph 3 Graph 4

Real GDP Growth Rate (%)………………………………………………….. Population Growth Trend…………………………………………………….. GDP Breakdown in 2010……………………………………………………... Inflation Rate Trend…………………………………………………………...

2 2 3 4

Box 1 Box 2

Energy Constraint in the Comoros Bank’s Support to Economic Reforms and Institutional Capacity Building in the Comoros…………………………………………………………………... Consultation with Stakeholders……………………………………………….

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Box 3

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List of Annexes Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 Annex 5 Annex 6 Annex 7 Annex 8 Annex 9

2011-2015 CSP Results Framework………………………………………….. Bank’s Indicative Program for 2011-2015…………………………………… Comoros - MDG Status………………………………………………………. Portfolio Performance Review and Status of Bank’s Operations……………. Rationale for Use of FSF Resources to Support Reforms……………………. Breakdown of Commitments of Main