Construction Confidence Index - IBRE

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(Share of companies reporting the portfolio of contracts below normal already discounted ... IBRE Call Center: +55 21 37
March 2016

Evolution over the last month – in points (Seasonally adjusted) Feb/16-Jan/16

Mar/16-Feb/16

The Construction Confidence Index (CSTI), by the Getulio Vargas Foundation, reported na increase of 0.2 points in March, reaching 66.8 points. The result comes after three consecutive decreases, which had led the index to the record low level in February. Thus, the indicator accumulated in the year closed with a reduction of 2.6 points, indicating the continuity of sector activity shrinking in 2016.

Evolution over the same month of the previous year – in points (Original)

“The March Survey shows that the current industry situation has reached the worst level since the beginning of its series, in July 2010. This perception has been reflected in employment figures, which has

Feb-16-Feb-15

Mar-16-Mar-15

been reporting a systematically decrease. The Survey indicates that business owners should continue laying off, reproducing the same negative dynamics of last year, which resulted in the cumulative decline of 10% in the labor contingent”, commented Ana Maria Castelo, Coordinator of Construction Projects at FGV / IBRE.

Construction Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted data, from jul/10 to mar/16)

115

105

95

85

75

ICST

ICST - quarterly moving average

Mar-16 = 66.8

65

Source: FGV/IBRE

All information contained in this report are seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise indicated. The seasonally adjusted time series were revised in February 2016, considering all available data. There was no revision in the original series. More detailed information about the Construction Survey are available on the website at www.fgv.br/ibre.

Construction Survey Construction Confidence Index March 2016

The slight increase of the CSTI in March was due to the improved outlook of companies in the future: the Expectations Index (EI-CST) increased by 1.0 point, reaching 71.1 points. Among the questions that comprise this synthesis index, the expected demand for the next three months was the one that contributed most to the rise in the index, with a change of 2.1 points compared to February. The Present Situation Index (PSI-CST) decreased for the third consecutive month, by 0.6 points, reaching 63.0 points. The highest negative contribution to the PSI-CST, down 0.9 point from the previous month, came from the indicator that captures the perception of the current size of the company's contract portfolio. The result indicates, therefore, that there is no perspective of change in the negative scenario in the short term. Contracts portfolio maintains downward trend (Share of companies reporting the portfolio of contracts below normal already discounted the portion of those that consider the portfolio above normal, in percentage points)

75

72.5 69.9

70

69.2

65 60 55.1

55

50

49.0

50.2

45 40 35 30

CONSTRUCTION

Buildings Mar-15

Works of Infrastructure

Mar-16

Source: FGV/IBRE

The March 2016 edition collected information from 701 companies between the 1st and the 21st this month. The next release of the Construction Survey will take place on April 26th 2016

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Construction Survey Construction Confidence Index March 2016

Period

Present Situation Index (In points)

Confidence Index

Expectations Confidence Index Index

Seasonally Adjusted – Standardized*

Present Situation Index (In points)

Expectations Index

Original – Standardized*

oct/14

88.0

88.7

87.6

86.4

88.8

84.5

nov/14

87.2

89.0

85.6

86.1

89.1

83.5

dec/14

88.4

90.9

86.1

87.8

91.0

84.9

jan/15

84.7

85.3

84.4

86.1

85.3

87.3

feb/15

81.4

81.3

81.8

82.0

81.4

83.2

mar/15

76.1

77.7

74.9

77.4

77.5

78.2

apr/15

77.5

75.6

79.7

77.3

75.5

79.9

may/15

75.2

73.7

77.1

75.2

73.8

77.6

jun/15

75.9

74.2

78.1

76.4

74.2

79.4

jul/15

73.2

71.6

75.2

72.6

71.7

74.4

aug/15

72.4

69.9

75.6

72.5

70.0

76.0

sep/15

70.5

68.4

73.2

69.3

68.5

71.3

oct/15

68.8

65.9

72.4

67.2

65.9

69.5

nov/15

69.7

67.0

73.0

68.7

67.0

71.4

dec/15

69.4

68.1

71.3

68.7

68.1

70.3

jan/16

67.5

65.5

70.2

68.5

65.5

72.6

feb/16

66.6

63.6

70.1

69.1

63.7

75.4

mar/16 66.8 63.0 71.1 67.9 62.8 74.0 * * average of 100 points and a standard deviation of 10 points, having as reference the period between July 2010 and June 2015

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ORIGINAL SERIES

Difference over the previous month (in points)

Difference over the same period of the previous year (in points)

Period

Confidenc e Index

Present Situation Index

Expectations Index

Period

Confidence Index

Present Situation Index

Expectations Index

oct/15

-1.7

-2.5

-0.8

oct/15

-19.2

-22.9

-15.0

nov/15

0.9

1.1

0.6

nov/15

-17.4

-22.1

-12.1

dec/15

-0.3

1.1

-1.7

dec/15

-19.1

-22.9

-14.6

jan/16

-1.9

-2.6

-1.1

jan/16

-17.6

-19.8

-14.7

feb/16

-0.9

-1.9

-0.1

feb/16

-12.9

-17.7

-7.8

mar/16

0.2

-0.6

1.0

mar/16

-9.5

-14.7

-4.2

CONSTRUCTION SURVEY | Monthly publication by FGV/IBRE – Brazilian Institute of Economics Director of IBRE: Luiz Guilherme Schymura de Oliveira | Vice-Director: Vagner Laerte Ardeo Assistant Superintendent for Business Cycles: Aloisio Campelo Junior Survey Coordinator: Itaiguara de Oliveira Bezerra | Responsible for analysis and dissemination: Ana Maria Castelo Technical team: Pedro Medeiros Teixeira and Maria Clara Teixeira Quintal Press services: Luciana Parreiras +55 21 3799-6384 / e-mail: [email protected] IBRE Call Center: +55 21 3799 6799 / [email protected] / portalibre.fgv.br

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