credit union trends report - CUNA Mutual [PDF]

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group – Economics ● April 2014 (February 2014 data)

Highlights Fourth quarter data revisions were mixed and modest. Assets were revised down, loans up and members down. Capital was revised down, but capital levels were unchanged. • Final data shows we lost 275 CUs in 2013. The current industry count is 6,754 CUs. This reflects a net loss of 294 CUs during the past year and 41 YTD. Current data suggests an accelerating pace of consolidation can be expected in 2014 and beyond. • Deposit inflows remain strong even as CUs lowered deposit yields to historic lows. Members continue to prefer highly liquid accounts. CD deposits and yields may have reached a floor with relative stability in the past four months. At $1.119 trillion, total assets are up 5.5% since February 2013 and 3.2% YTD. • Annual loan growth has improved for 30 consecutive months and at 8.1% it is at its highest level since October st 2006. Vehicle loans and 1 mortgages continue to drive growth. We expect loan growth to soften as the fear of a rising long-term interest st rate environment slows fixed-rate 1 mortgage portfolio gains. • Membership counts were revised lower by 440,000 in 2013 with the annual gain restated at 2.4 million. YTD gains are strong, up 584,000 through February to 99.0 million. • The loan-to-share ratio slipped to 69.1% due to a deposit surge. The capital-to-asset ratio finished February at 10.3%, also negatively impacted by the deposit surge. Improvements are forecast in the near-term. The loan delinquency rate continues to come in below 1.0%. Any further improvements will be minor and may reflect too tight of underwriting.

ENVIRONMENT

Even with mixed results from the fourth quarter data revisions, CUs continued to carry considerable positive momentum through the first two months of 2014. Loan, asset and membership growth remain strong, as do capital levels. After considerable weather-related setbacks in the first quarter, U.S. economic growth should improve moderately through year-end and into 2015. On balance, a wide array of employment conditions indicators remain soft as does the outlook for inflation. Thus, we believe monetary policy will continue to be accommodative with some potential for spread improvements. As noted in past reports, the recovery will be driven by consumers’ actions on Main Street, not a top down, rising tide lifts all ships. Several factors could stall our nascent recovery; most are geopolitical and we have little control. We are also watching the housing sector closely and hope recent softness in sales, starts and financing, was just weather related. Total Lending Fourth quarter data revisions added $2.5 billion to loan portfolio estimates and boosted 2013 annual growth by 0.4 percentage points (pp). Most of the positive revision came from vehicle loans. Total loans hit $664 billion in February, up 0.6% YTD and 8.1% since February 2013, as shown by the bars in Figure 1. • Almost 46% of the $50 billion annual increase is attributable to gains in vehicle loans, which are up 12.3% as shown by the black line in Figure 1 st nd • Real estate secured loans (1 mortgages, 2 mortgages and home equity loans) accounted for almost 45% of all loan growth since February 2013. st Most of this increase came from the $17 billion gain in fixed-rate 1 mortgages. Given the real fear of rising long-term interest rates, we expect the current 9.7% annual growth in this portfolio is not sustainable, given NCUA guidance. • Another good sign of improving economic confidence and CUs wanting to deploy more assets into higher yielding member loans is the $7.8 billion increase in member business loans (MBLs) during the past 12 months. This portfolio segment now represents 7.3% of all CU loans.

Annual Growth Key Loan Portfolio Segments 10-Year Average Growth Rates Total Loans = 5.5% RE Loans = 7.3% Vehicle Loans = 3.2%

20

February 2013 –February 2014 Growth Total Loans = 8.1% RE Loans = 6.8% Vehicle Loans =12.3%

Percent

15 10 5 0 -5 -10 04

05

06

Total Loans

07

08

09

10

RE Loans

Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 1

11

12

13

Vehicle Loans

14 Feb

Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Fourth quarter data revisions were slightly positive, adding 0.2 pp to previous growth estimates. CUs finished 2013 with almost $22 billion more in CUCIC, translating into 8.8% annual growth. At the end of February, CUCIC stood at $268 billion, up 0.9% YTD and 7.9% since February 2013, as shown by the blue line in Figure 2. During the past 12 months, the increase in the vehicle loan portfolio accounted for more than 100% of the total CUCIC increase. • The CU share of this $3.1 trillion lending arena is now 8.65%, up 18 basis points (bp) during the past year. • Total CIC growth (excluding CUs) is now just 5.5% (see red dashed line in Figure 2). We continue to be concerned about the recovery in total CIC. After removing the 17% growth impact from Government Student Loans (GSLs), installment credit expansion is an anemic 1.8% (see green line in Figure 2). • The CU credit card portfolio is down 3.2% YTD due to seasonal payoffs. CUs hold 5.1% of all credit card balances. Annual growth is a healthy 6.9%, well above the still struggling broader market, which is up just 0.2% year-over-year.

Growth in Consumer Installment Credit February 2014 Percent

12

CUs 7.9%

8 Total Market Excl. CUs 5.5%

4 0

Total Market Excl. CUs & GSLs 1.8%

-4 -8 10 12

11 06

11 12

12 06

12 12

13 06

13 12

14 06

14 12


Figure 2 Vehicle Loans Positive data revisions in new and used portfolios added $2.5 billion to year-end 2013 total vehicle loans outstanding. Despite extremely bad weather, which reduced consumer activity in most of the nation, CUs expanded their new and used vehicle portfolios in each of the first two months of 2014 for a total YTD increase of 1.7%. At the end of February, total vehicle loans were almost $206 billion, up $41 billion (25%) from their cyclical low in March 2011 and 12.3% year-overyear, as shown in the left graphic of Figure 3. Vehicle loans now equal 31% of all CU loans. • The used vehicle portfolio is up 1.3% YTD and 11.4% year-over-year, as shown in the right graphic of Figure 3. This is the strongest growth since March 2004. While used vehicles equal 19.8% of all CU loans, they generated 27% of all loan growth during the past 12 months. Unlike new light vehicle sales, CU new vehicle loans did not fall in February and are up 2.4% YTD. Annual growth is holding around 14% (see right graphic of Figure 3).

Vehicle Lending Growth Comparisons Annual Growth 14

Percent

February 2014

CU New vs. Used Vehicle 20

12.3%

12

Percent New 13.9%

15

10 10

8 6

5

4

0

2

Used 11.4%

-5

0 -10

-2

-15

-4 -6 10 12

-20

11 12

12 12

13 12

14 12

10 12

11 12


Figure 3 2 ● Credit Union Trends Report

12 12

13 12

st

Real Estate-Secured Lending – 1 Mortgages and Other Real Estate Data revisions had a minimal positive impact on real estate secured (RE) loan growth. At $348 billion, total RE loans are up 0.5% YTD and 6.8% during the past year, as shown by the left-most bars in Figure 4. RE loans now represent 52.4% of all loans and 31.1% of total CU assets. st • On an annual basis, fixed-rate 1 mortgages are the strongest loan growth component at CUs. The 9.7% year-overyear increase in this portfolio (see blue bars) accounted for almost 35% of all CU loan growth and 78% of the RE st increase. Adjustable-rate 1 mortgages are up 9.1% year-over-year (see granite bars) and accounted for 13.6% of CU st loan growth. The first three sections of Figure 4 show a solid and improving 1 mortgage outlook. We expect gains to taper as higher long-term interest rates in 2014 dampen refinance volumes. • The orange bars in Figure 4 show that for the first time in four years, annual growth in home equity loans is positive. Owner equity is up, CU interest rates are down, and the broader market is once again promoting this type of lending. The near-term outlook for home equity loans shows annual growth in the 3.0%-4.0% range by year-end. nd • The 2 mortgage portfolio continues to contract (see right-most bars in Figure 4). This portfolio segment represents just 4.8% of CU loans and has now declined 44% from its August 2008 peak. st • Expect a significant reduction in 1 mortgage origination activity during the next couple of years due to lack of refi’s.

Growth CU Real Estate Loans 2014 = February

15 Percent

9.7%

10

9.1%

6.8%

5 0.9%

0 -5 -6.8%

-10 -15 11 12 13 14 11 12 13 14 11 12 13 14 11 12 13 14 11 12 13 14 All Real Estate Loans

Fixed Rate 1st Mortgages

Adjustable Rate 1st Mortgages

Home Equity Loans

Second Mortgages


Figure 4 Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) While surplus funds were revised down fractionally, CU borrowing was restated $3.2 billion (11.6%) higher. Much of the st borrowing increase is related to 1 mortgage retention strategies. A strong YTD deposit inflow (normal seasonal pattern) boosted surplus funds almost $31 billion (8.0%) since the beginning of the year. These inflows are occurring despite liquid deposit account yields falling to new record lows. At $412 billion, (record high) surplus funds are up 1.9% year-over-year. • Surplus funds equal 36.8% of CU assets, thus in aggregate, the CU system has plenty of liquidity. This key measure is down 1.3 pp since February 2013 due to loan portfolio increases exceeding deposit inflows. CUNA estimates show 46.6% of surplus funds have a maturity of one year of less, basically unchanged from the prior year level.

Savings and Assets Savings and assets were revised down at year-end 2013. The net effect is savings growth was restated lower by 0.7 pp and assets by 0.3 pp. At the end of February, total savings stood at $961 billion, with almost $32 billion in deposit inflows YTD and annual growth of 5.2%. The left graphic of Figure 5 shows current savings growth well above 2013, despite falling yields paid on deposits. • The right graphic (left-most bars) of Figure 5 shows the distribution of deposit inflows during the past year. Roughly 104% of these flows went into share drafts, regular shares and money market accounts. Rates paid on all three of these deposit types have fallen to record lows. The right-most bars show current yield estimates by account type. • During the past year, member CD balances fell 1.2% and are down almost $42 billion (17%) from their March 2009 peak. CD balances have climbed fractionally during the past couple of months as national average yields (on 1-Year CDs) appear to have found their lower bounds and are almost unchanged since September 2013. • At $1.119 trillion, total assets are up 2.0% in February, 3.2% YTD and 5.5% ($58 billion) during the past 12 months. Annual growth is 0.1 pp below its 10-year average. Many CUs would like to slow asset gains (due to deposit inflows) from current levels to protect their capital-to-asset ratios.

3 ● Credit Union Trends Report

CU Savings Indicators February 2014 12

Annual Savings Growth (%)

Share of Deposit Growth

CU Interest Rates (%)

60

0.9%

10

50

0.8%

8

40

0.7%

6

0.6%

30

0.5%

20

0.4% 0.3%

10

4

0.2%

0

0.1%

2 -10 07 08 09 10 11

12 13 14 Feb

Sh ar eg e D ul r ar aft Sh s ar es M M As C Ds Sh R ar e eg ul Dr a ar ft Sh s ar es M M A 1 Yr s CD s

04 05 06

R

0

0.0%


Figure 5

Capital and Other Key Measures Surprisingly, capital was restated fractionally lower and this reduced 2013 annual capital growth to 4.2%. At the end of February, total industry capital reached almost $116 billion, up $2.4 billion (2.2%) YTD and $5.9 billion (5.4%) since February 2013. • The capital-to-asset (C/A) finished the month at 10.3%, as shown by the red line (right scale) of Figure 6. The February decline is attributable to the 2.0% month-only asset surge overwhelming the 0.9% month-only increase in capital. Expect the C/A ratio to improve during the next couple of months as the early year deposit / asset surge works itself off. • The combination of loans being revised higher and shares lower boosted the year-end loan-to-share (L/S) ratio by 72 bp to 71.0%. The deposit surge YTD ($47 billion) pushed the L/S down to 69.1%, as shown by the blue line (left scale) of Figure 6. While down for the month, it is 185 bp above its prior year level. Baring economic shocks, we see this key lending measure moving higher, on the strength of vehicle lending. • While the loan delinquency rate (loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans outstanding) was restated fractionally higher based on fourth quarter data revisions, the overall trend of improvement remains intact. At the end of February, this key credit quality measure stood at 0.964%, a 12 bp improvement during the past year and well below its 10-year average of 1.176%. We don’t expect much improvement beyond this point. If we see further declines, then CUs should loosen their underwriting standards.

Credit Union Key Ratios February 2014 Percent

Percent

90

12.0

85

11.5 Capital-to-Asset (Right Scale)

80

11.0

75

10.5 10.3%

70 65

9.5

Loan-to-Share (Left Scale)

60 10 12

11 06

11 12

12 06

12 12

9.0 13 06


Figure 6


10.0

69.1%

13 12

14 06

14 12

Credit Unions and Members Final year-end data revisions reduced previous CU estimates by three institutions. CUNA Economics & Statistic’s final year-end 2013 count of 6,795 CUs reflects a full year net loss of 275 institutions. Despite final data showing 2013 consolidation six CUs below 2012 as well as sixteen CUs below our forecast and the 10-year average, we continue to call for accelerating consolidation rates. Meeting member demands for products, services and access channels, plus complying with multiple regulatory bodies, is almost an impossible task for the 2,325 CUs (34% of all CUs) who hold less than $10 million in assets. • At the end of February, CUNA shows 6,754 CUs. This represents an annual loss of 294 CUs and a YTD decline of 41 CUs. This is well above YTD 2013 results, as shown in Figure 7 and 12 CUs above the average YTD contraction of the previous four years. • While many CUs have remained in business longer than what I had forecast, the combination of declining membership, assets, loans and capital, coupled with rising regulatory burdens, will force many small CUs to merge into larger fullservice CUs. This is not a bad trend and will be advantageous to members who previously had limited choice.

Annual Net Decline in Number of CUs 600

Number of CUs

February 2013 – February 2014 Decline = 294 400

363

331

353 308 266

257

281 234

246

275

200

23

41

0 04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

13

14

YTD February Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 7 CUNA’s quarterly data revisions reduced previous estimates of membership gains by 440,000 and reduced growth by 0.5 pp. Despite the revisions, CUs added a record 2.4 million members in 2013, as shown by the burgundy bars in Figure 8. At the end of February, CUNA estimates show 99.0 million CU members. • Through the first two months of 2014, membership is up 584,000 (see right-most bars in Figure 8). YTD results are exceeding even last year’s record gain, but we question if this elevated pace is sustainable. The good news is we are getting loans. Despite the record surge in membership, loans per member are up a healthy 5.2% year-over-year versus a 10-year average of 4.0%. • Our data does not show if these are “rate-price only members,” or future deep relationships. Clearly, these additional members add to expenses and without a mutually beneficial relationship, they become bottom-line burdens.

Net Gain in Total CU Membership February 2014 = 99.0 Million Millions of Members

3.0 2.4

2.5 2.0

2.0 1.5

1.4 1.2

1.2 1.0

1.0

1.4

1.3

1.1 0.6

0.6 0.4

0.5 0.0 04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

13

14

YTD February Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 8 5 ● Credit Union Trends Report

National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates YR/MO 12 02 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 10 12 11 12 12 13 01 13 02 13 03 13 04 13 05 13 06 13 07 13 08 13 09 13 10 13 11 13 12 14 01 14 02

|------------------ ($ Billions) ---------------------| LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL 586.1 999.1 861.6 101.3 586.9 1,022.8 884.6 102.1 590.3 1,017.9 878.8 103.1 594.3 1,020.4 880.3 103.9 597.7 1,028.7 887.4 104.5 600.9 1,023.1 880.7 105.5 605.0 1,036.3 892.3 106.4 607.8 1,034.1 888.3 107.0 610.9 1,031.1 886.6 107.6 611.8 1,043.0 896.8 108.3 615.1 1,043.1 896.6 108.7 615.7 1,043.9 896.3 109.2 614.8 1,060.8 913.7 109.8 616.5 1,077.3 929.3 110.5 620.6 1,072.5 924.4 111.3 624.5 1,080.9 932.4 111.0 630.2 1,077.8 928.7 110.1 636.3 1,073.7 824.0 110.2 642.7 1,083.1 931.3 109.8 647.1 1,078.2 924.9 111.3 651.8 1,082.3 926.0 112.3 654.9 1,088.9 932.1 112.7 660.1 1,083.7 929.2 113.3 663.0 1,096.5 939.9 114.8 664.3 1,118.9 960.9 115.8

(Millions) MEMBERS 94.3 94.7 94.8 95.1 95.3 95.5 95.8 96.0 95.8 95.9 96.0 96.1 96.4 96.7 96.8 97.2 97.3 97.7 97.9 98.1 98.1 98.1 98.4 98.6 99.0

CREDIT UNIONS 7,308 7,278 7,259 7,240 7,219 7,191 7,162 7,144 7,115 7,116 7,070 7,057 7,047 7,008 6,999 6,987 6,930 6,902 6,880 6,864 6,834 6,828 6,795 6,763 6,754

LOAN / SAVINGS 68.0 66.4 67.2 67.5 67.3 68.2 67.8 68.4 68.9 68.2 68.6 68.7 67.3 66.3 67.1 67.0 67.9 68.9 69.0 70.0 70.4 70.3 71.0 70.5 69.1

CAPITAL/ ASSET RATIO 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.3

# OF CUs DECLINE (272) (278) (274) (267) (266) (289) (287) (293) (298) (275) (281) (282) (260) (270) (261) (252) (289) (289) (282) (280) (281) (288) (275) (294) (294)

Delinquency Ratio* 1.492% 1.445% 1.373% 1.287% 1.198% 1.175% 1.180% 1.172% 1.129% 1.143% 1.153% 1.117% 1.081% 1.013% 1.001% 1.002% 1.033% 1.020% 1.018% 1.013% 1.009% 1.028% 1.005% 0.992% 0.964%

Credit Union Growth Rates Percent Change Previous Year YR/MO 12 02 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 10 12 11 12 12 13 01 13 02 13 03 13 04 13 05 13 06 13 07 13 08 13 09 13 10 13 11 13 12 14 01 14 02

LOANS 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1

ASSETS 5.3 6.6 5.2 6.0 6.9 6.0 7.8 6.5 6.1 7.3 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.3 5.4 5.9 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.3 5.0 4.4 3.9 5.0 5.5

SAVINGS 5.3 6.7 5.2 6.2 6.9 6.0 8.0 6.2 6.1 7.3 6.1 6.3 6.1 5.0 5.2 5.9 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.6 4.9 5.2

CAPITAL 7.7 7.8 7.5 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 7.9 7.8 7.9 8.5 8.1 8.4 8.3 8.0 6.8 5.4 4.4 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.4

MEMBERS 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

* Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans. 6 ● Credit Union Trends Report

# OF CUs (3.6) (3.7) (3.6) (3.6) (3.6) (3.9) (3.9) (3.9) (4.0) (3.7) (3.8) (3.8) (3.6) (3.7) (3.6) (3.5) (4.0) (4.0) (3.9) (3.9) (4.0) (4.0) (3.9) (4.2) (4.2)

Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding ST

YR/MO 12 02 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 10 12 11 12 12 13 01 13 02 13 03 13 04 13 05 13 06 13 07 13 08 13 09 13 10 13 11 13 12 14 01 14 02

TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL LOANS | VEHICLE LOANS | 586.1 59.0 109.0 168.1 586.9 59.3 110.0 169.4 590.3 59.8 110.8 170.6 594.3 60.4 111.9 172.3 597.7 61.0 113.1 174.0 600.9 61.6 113.9 175.5 605.0 62.3 115.1 177.4 607.8 63.0 116.1 179.1 610.9 63.6 117.0 180.5 611.8 64.0 116.8 180.8 615.1 64.4 117.3 181.7 615.7 64.7 117.7 182.4 614.8 65.2 117.9 183.1 616.5 65.7 119.0 184.6 620.6 66.2 120.4 186.6 624.5 66.5 121.4 187.9 630.2 67.5 123.4 190.9 636.3 68.6 124.9 193.5 642.7 69.5 126.1 195.6 647.1 70.1 127.2 197.3 651.8 71.3 128.9 200.2 654.9 72.0 129.5 201.5 660.1 72.5 129.6 202.1 663.0 73.8 130.6 204.4 664.3 74.3 131.3 205.6

UNSEC CREDIT Ex. CC’S CARDS 25.5 37.0 25.1 36.8 25.3 37.0 25.3 37.3 25.8 37.6 26.1 38.0 27.1 38.4 26.6 38.6 26.9 38.8 27.3 39.2 27.3 40.3 27.4 39.8 27.0 39.3 26.7 39.3 27.2 39.5 27.4 39.9 27.6 40.3 28.2 40.8 28.6 41.3 28.7 41.5 29.0 41.6 29.3 42.0 29.8 43.4 29.7 42.7 29.3 42.0

CUCIC 223.8 223.0 227.7 229.4 231.2 234.7 237.1 236.7 238.8 242.6 244.0 246.4 248.2 245.5 248.2 248.9 253.8 255.9 259.2 261.9 263.2 263.8 265.6 267.9 267.9

1 MORT TOTAL 239.9 241.8 241.9 243.8 245.9 245.3 246.3 249.1 250.6 249.0 252.0 251.8 251.6 254.2 254.7 257.5 259.7 263.4 266.5 268.3 270.8 271.6 273.9 274.4 275.6

TOT. OTHR TOTAL MORT REAL ND 2 +HE ESTATE 80.2 320.2 79.5 321.3 79.1 321.0 78.5 322.4 78.1 324.1 77.7 323.0 77.4 323.7 77.0 326.1 76.6 327.2 76.7 325.7 75.5 327.6 74.8 326.7 74.3 326.0 73.6 327.8 73.4 328.2 72.9 330.4 72.6 332.3 72.2 335.6 72.2 338.7 72.3 340.6 72.0 342.8 71.7 343.3 72.5 346.3 72.4 346.8 72.4 348.0

MBLs* 42.1 42.6 41.6 42.5 42.4 43.2 44.1 45.1 45.0 43.5 43.5 42.7 40.7 43.2 44.2 45.2 44.8 44.8 44.8 44.7 45.8 47.7 48.2 48.4 48.5

TOT. OTHR TOTAL MORT REAL ND 2 +HE ESTATE (7.5) 1.6 (7.7) 1.4 (7.9) 1.9 (8.2) 2.0 (8.2) 2.0 (7.7) 1.9 (8.0) 2.5 (8.3) 2.4 (7.9) 2.5 (7.4) 2.3 (8.1) 2.3 (7.7) 2.2 (7.4) 1.8 (7.5) 2.0 (7.2) 2.2 (7.2) 2.5 (7.1) 2.5 (7.0) 3.9 (6.8) 4.6 (6.1) 4.4 (6.1) 4.8 (6.5) 5.4 (4.1) 5.7 (3.2) 6.2 (2.6) 6.8

MBLs* 13.9 11.3 7.0 9.3 8.4 9.0 9.6 13.9 12.1 7.0 6.5 3.0 (3.4) 1.3 6.2 6.2 5.5 3.6 1.6 (0.8) 1.9 9.8 10.8 13.4 19.2

* Member Business Loans

Distribution of Credit Union Loans Percent Change From Prior Year ST

YR/MO 12 02 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 10 12 11 12 12 13 01 13 02 13 03 13 04 13 05 13 06 13 07 13 08 13 09 13 10 13 11 13 12 14 01 14 02

TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL LOANS | VEHICLE LOANS | 2.1 (5.6) 6.3 1.8 2.4 (4.0) 6.5 2.6 2.8 (2.4) 6.5 3.2 3.1 (0.8) 6.9 4.1 3.4 0.6 7.1 4.8 3.8 2.3 7.2 5.4 4.2 4.0 7.4 6.2 4.4 5.8 7.8 7.1 4.6 6.6 7.9 7.4 4.7 7.5 7.7 7.6 4.8 8.6 7.9 8.1 4.9 9.3 8.3 8.6 4.9 10.5 8.1 8.9 5.0 10.6 8.2 9.0 5.1 10.7 8.6 9.4 5.1 10.2 8.4 9.0 5.4 10.7 9.2 9.7 5.9 11.4 9.6 10.2 6.2 11.6 9.6 10.3 6.5 11.3 9.6 10.2 6.7 12.1 10.2 10.9 7.0 12.5 10.9 11.4 7.3 12.6 10.4 11.2 7.7 14.0 10.9 12.0 8.1 13.9 11.4 12.3


UNSEC CREDIT Ex. CC’S CARDS 1.5 4.5 1.8 4.7 3.8 5.1 2.0 4.7 3.1 4.7 3.6 4.9 6.3 5.0 4.2 5.5 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.7 5.4 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.8 7.3 6.6 8.1 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.9 7.3 5.6 7.5 8.0 7.6 8.2 7.4 7.2 7.2 9.0 7.7 8.5 7.4 8.7 6.9

CUCIC 0.8 2.2 3.4 3.6 4.7 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.3 7.8 8.0 9.3 10.9 10.1 9.0 8.5 9.5 9.0 9.3 10.7 10.2 8.7 8.8 8.7 7.9

1 MORT TOTAL 5.0 4.8 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.7 5.9 5.5 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 7.7 8.1 9.1 8.7 8.9 9.5

Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit 15

CU Loan Portfolio 700

Percent

Total Loans

$ in Billions $660.1 $664.3

600

CUCIC

$580.5 $587.4 $580.3 $587.0

$544.1

$615.1

$511.1

500

$474.2 $428.6

400

10

300

$388.5

47.0%

51.8%

54.1% 56.7%

59.3%

59.6% 61.0% 61.5% 60.3%

59.8% 59.7%

49.8%

200

5 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Feb

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2012

2013

2014

CIC

CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions 45

Other

Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions

Percent

280

$ Billions

260

40 240

35 220

30

1

2 3

4

5

6

7 8

2012

9 10 11 12 1

2

3

4 5

6

7

8 9 10 11 12 1 2

2013

3

4

5 6

7

8

9 10 11 12

200

1 2

3 4 5

2014

6 7

8 9 10 11 12 1 2

3 4 5

2012

6 7

2013

8 9 10 11 12 1 2

3 4 5

6 7

8 9 10 11 12

2014

This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S’s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group – Economics. To access this report on the Internet: • Sign in at cunamutual.com • Go to the “Resource Library” tab • Under “Publications” heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Dave Colby 800.356.2644, Ext. 665.7720 [email protected] CUNA Mutual Group – Economics © CUNA Mutual Group, 2014 All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates.
