CROP TOUR CROP TOUR - AgWeb

CROP TOUR Crop Tour Insert Vol. 6, Issue 4 • November 2012 Special supplement to Pro Farmer newsletter

National average corn yield at 122.3 bu. per acre USDA’s November Crop Production Report put the national average corn yield at 122.3 bu. per acre. With harvested acres unchanged from the October estimate at 87.721 million, total 2012 corn production is estimated at 10.725 billion bushels. How Pro Farmer estimates stack up — On Aug. 24, Pro Farmer estimated a national average corn yield of 120.25 bu. per acre on harvested acres of 87.141 million for a crop of 10.478 billion bushels. When talking about a national average corn yield estimate in the middle of the worst Corn Belt drought in decades, we’re very satisfied with the yield estimate. Where we continue to disagree with USDA is on the harvested acreage tally. USDA’s harvested acres include only acres harvested for grain; acres harvested as silage are not included in the tally. During the Midwest Crop Tour this year silage harvest was much more aggressive than we’ve ever seen during the Tour. That’s true for two reasons: 1) More acres than normal were harvested for silage; and 2) it took more acres than normal to fill silage bunkers. Many growers across South Dakota and Nebraska said it took at least twice as many acres to fill bunkers this year than in a normal year. That certainly suggests a lower-than-normal harvested acreage percentage in the western Corn Belt. In the eastern Belt, crop scouts saw widespread silage harvest in an area with relatively low silage demand — there just aren’t as many cattle in the eastern Belt as in the west. Dairies in the eastern Belt undoubtedly had to harvest more corn acres for silage, but we saw corn fields cut for silage in areas that normally see no silage cut. USDA has made some adjustments — In a normal growing season, the higher the total corn plantings, the higher the harvested acreage percentage. That’s because the country needs just “so many” acres cut for silage. Let’s assume about 6.5 million acres are normally harvested for silage. Additional acres are abandoned due to weather damage (flood, drought, hail, etc...) and management issues.

• In 2009, U.S. corn growers planted 86.482 million acres and harvested 79.590 million corn acres for grain. That’s a harvested acreage percentage of 92.03% and 6.892 million planted corn acres were “abandoned” (either harvested for silage or went unharvested). • In 2010, U.S. corn growers planted 88.192 million acres and harvested 81.446 million corn acres for grain. That’s a harvested acreage percentage of 92.35% and 6.746 million planted corn acres were abandoned. • In 2011, U.S. corn growers planted 91.921 million acres and harvested 83.987 million corn acres for grain. That’s a harvested acreage percentage of 91.36% and 7.934 million planted corn acres were abandoned. • In 2012, USDA estimates planted corn acres at 96.946 million and harvested acres at 87.721 million. That’s a harvested acreage percentage of 90.48%, which means USDA currently estimates 9.225 million acres planted to corn in 2012 were abandoned. If the assumption that around 6.5 million acres of corn are normally cut for silage is right, then nearly 3 million additional acres were either cut for silage or were unharvested this year. That’s a lot, but probably not enough. We’re sticking with our harvested acreage estimate of 84.141 million. That’s 89.89% of the 96.946 million acres planted to corn this year. Our acres, USDA yield — If we’re right on harvested corn acres and if USDA is right on the national average yield, the 2012 corn crop would total 10.657 billion bushels, 68 million bu. less than USDA’s current estimate. That’s more than 10% of USDA’s latest 2012-13 corn carryover projection of 647 million bushels. Our yield, USDA acres — If we’re right on yield and if USDA is right on harvested corn acres, the 2012 corn crop would total 10.548 million, 177 million bu. less than USDA’s current estimate. That’s nearly 30% of USDA’s latest 2012-13 corn carryover projection. Final estimate comes Jan. 11 — USDA’s Annual Production Summary on Jan. 11, 2013, is its next chance to adjust the size of the 2012 corn crop.

Professional Farmers of America® P.O. Box 36, Cedar Falls, Iowa 50613-9985

Subscription Services: 1-800-772-0023 • Editorial: 319-277-1278 • ©2012 Professional Farmers of America, Inc. • E-mail address: [email protected]

Crop Tour More proof corn and soybeans are ‘different animals’ Over the past 20 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tours, it has become abundantly clear that corn and soybeans don’t necessarily maximize yields under the same weather conditions. It is not unusual to pull a “low” corn yield estimate right across the road from a sky-high soybean pod count. Conversely, some of the best corn we’ve sampled over the years have come right next to some of the worst soybeans. Very simply, corn and soybean plants are two completely “different animals” and what’s good (or bad) for one crop isn’t necessarily good (or bad) for the other. There were a few examples of this on the 2012 Tour, but this year’s growing season was so severe across the Corn Belt that stress seemed universal over the corn and soybean crops. And it was — both corn and soybean yields were generally below what Corn Belt growers have come to expect. But soybeans recovered — USDA in November estimated the national average soybean yield at 39.3 bu. per acre, up 1.5 bu. per acre from October and 3.2 bu. above USDA’s August estimate of 36.1 bu. per acre. This statement is not true for all areas, but late-season rains came just in time to help the soybean crop build on midseason yield expectations. Those rains didn’t add more pods, but the bean size was much larger than seen in several years. The Crop Tour runs the third full week of August every year. In most years, the bean crop could still add a final cluster of pods at the top of the plant, depending on moisture available, planting date and other environmental factors. This year, bean plants advanced enough and were under enough moisture and heat stress to prevent those pods from being added even after late-season showers. That’s true even in the eastern Corn Belt where rains became frequent enough to cause harvest delays. Because the plants were not “focused” on adding any additional growth or pods when the rains fell, all that moisture helped improve pod size. Because the size of the bean is responsible for about one-third of the bean yield, a big bean means a bigger-than-expected yield. Pod-count data ‘lined up’ — This year’s Crop Tour revealed the lowest pod count in 9 square feet we’ve seen in 20 years of crop touring. And USDA’s pod counts showed similar year-to-year declines and were the lowest in several years. USDA reports the number of pods in 18 sq. feet and the process their enumerators use is very similar to the process used on the Midwest Crop Tour. • In September, USDA estimated the number of pods in 18 sq. feet at about 1,425. • In October, the estimated number of pods in 18 sq. feet was near unchanged at about 1,425. • In November, the number of pods in 18 sq. feet increased very slightly, to about 1,440.

For comparison, USDA says the number of pods in 18 sq. feet was near 1,775 in 2011; was nearly 1,900 in 2010; and was close to 1,750 in 2009. That means 2012 pod counts are estimated down about 19% from year-ago. The “respectable” pod count in 2009 was accompanied by a record average pod weight to result in a record national average soybean yield of 44 bu. per acre. Pod weight was the surprise — Along with pod populations in 18 sq. feet, USDA estimates the size of the bean by estimating pod weights. As soon as possible, USDA enumerators harvest pods from the field used in the objective yield data. Those pods are “sent to the lab” for analysis, including average weight. • In September, USDA estimated the average pod weight at about 0.276 grams. • In October, the average pod weight estimate increased sharply to about 0.295 grams. That’s an increase of about 6.9% in just one month. • In November, the average pod weight estimate increased to about 0.306 grams. That was another big month-to-month increase of about 3.7%. Compared to September, the November average pod weight was up about 10.9%. For comparison, USDA says the average pod weight was about 0.271 grams in 2011; was near 0.269 grams in 2010; and was at about 0.292 grams in 2009. At that time, the 2009 average pod weight was a record. There was no reason to expect a record pod weight — When Pro Farmer issued our national average soybean yield estimate of 34.8 bu. per acre, conditions were exceptionally dry across the Corn Belt and we expected an average bean size (pod weight) similar to that seen in 2010 and 2011. We certainly didn’t expect bean size to be anywhere close to what was seen in 2009! Instead, USDA now says the average pod weight was a record, besting 2009’s pod weight by 4.8%. Because bean plants did not add late-season pods, all late-season moisture went to building a bigger bean. Scale tickets back it up — The earliest Midwest bean harvest reports featured very low yields, but as harvest progressed, reports from yield monitors started to climb. As beans moved to town, scale tickets confirmed bean yields would be better than mid-season yield estimates. There were similar trends in corn yield reports, but the uptrend in soybean yields was clear for many growers. Many believe USDA’s national average bean yield estimate of 39.3 bu. per acre will increase again in the January Annual Production Summary. It’s possible, but not likely. Pod population estimates should not change after holding near current levels since September. We simply do not see potential for average pod weights to increase from current record levels. If there is “risk” in the bean yield estimates, it’s that pod weights will be trimmed in the January crop update. Crop Tour page 3

Crop Tour Pools of cool water disrupting move back to El Niño episode Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies as of Nov. 14, 2012

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Departure from normal temperatures in °C

Weather watchers are paying close attention to the blue spots on this map. They show sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and the darker the blue, the cooler the SSTs are compared to normal. Cooler-than-normal SSTs reflect La Niña conditions, which were in place during the 2012 growing season. SSTs were trending to warmer-than-normal levels, which would indicate the development of El Niño conditions. An El Niño episode ups the odds of a normal to wetter-thannormal growing season in the U.S. Midwest. The threat of a double-dip La Niña is adding uncertainty to the 2013 growing season here in the United States. Last year’s La Niña also resulted in widespread drought over a wide portion of Brazil and Argentina. Keep a close watch on this issue. A move back to El Niño would make us more willing sellers of 2013 corn and soybeans.

Long-term weather outlooks from National Weather Service do not rule out recovery from drought 30-Day Precip

December

90-Day Precip

December

On the long-term temp outlook maps: The darker the brown, the higher the odds of above-normal temps. The darker the blue, the higher the odds of belownormal temps.

Dec.-Feb. 30-Day Temp

90-Day Temp

Dec.-Feb.

The outlook for December calls for below-normal temps across the Northern Plains and Minnesota, above-normal temps across the South and equal chances for below-, normal and above-normal temps elsewhere, including the Midwest. The forecast also calls for above-normal precip across the eastern Corn Belt but equal chances elsewhere across the country. That outlook doesn’t rule out relief from drought conditions, but because the western Corn Belt and Plains states need well-above-normal precip to return soil moisture to normal levels, the outlook certainly doesn’t promise drought-breaking weather.

On long-term precip maps: The darker the brown, the higher the odds of below-normal precipitation. The darker the green, the higher the odds of above-normal precip.

White represents “equal chances” for above-, belowand normal conditions. If the temperature outlook is right, early planted corn in the South will speed through the growing season and be harvested in late-July and August. However, fast post-pollination crop development could take a big bite out of yield potential.

The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC’s) outlook for December through February calls for above-normal temps across the Southern Plains and much of the western U.S., while cooler temps are expected across the Upper Midwest and Florida. Elsewhere, the chances are equal for below-, normal and above-normal temps. Above-normal precip is expected in areas of the Southeast, with equal chances of precip expected across the Plains and Midwest. Most concerning are the above-normal temps in the Southern Plains that are likely to make it more difficult to recharge soil moisture. Crop Tour page 5

Crop Tour

Topsoil moisture has improved, but drought still has a tight grip on the western Corn Belt

U.S. Drought Monitor As of Nov. 13, 2012

Abnormally Dry Moderate Drought Severe Drought Extreme Drought Exceptional Drought

Nearly all factors point to continued drought across major crop areas The stalled development of El Niño conditions is contributing to the 30- and 90-day outlooks that both feature equal-chances for below-, normal and abovenormal precipitation. With drought conditions already in place across the western Corn Belt, it will take much-above-normal precip to rebuild soil moisture to normal levels. Therefore, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist across much of the western Belt. That sets the stage for a dry start to the 2013 growing season.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows how dire conditions are in the center of the country. Soil moisture levels improved in the eastern Corn Belt — at exactly the wrong time. Rains helped build a bigger soybean yield, but also delayed harvest. Along with most of Illinois and Wisconsin, the entire western and northwestern Corn Belt is still dealing with drought conditions. This is a significant departure from last year at this time. At that time, only a small portion of the Belt was under drought conditions. The rest of the Belt had at least “some” moisture in the tank for a dry growing season. This year, the tank is empty for the 2013 growing season and it will take above-normal moisture up to planting season to recharge soils.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Through Outlook February 2013

Drought to persist or intensify Drought ongoing, some improvement Drought likely to ease, impacts ease Drought development likely

Released Nov. 15, 2012

Weather outlooks signal no relief for the hard red winter wheat crop in the Southern Plains December Kansas City wheat futures have been caught in a sideways trading range since peaking July 19 at $9.57 1/4. Just three days later, the bottom of the trading range was established at $8.74. Since then, the top and bottom of the range has been tested, but not broken. Meanwhile, July 2013 K.C. wheat futures have crawled higher and a steady, shallow uptrend in prices has been in place since mid-July. The persistent drought across HRW country and the outlook for dry conditions to remain in place is the reason. Dry conditions initially delayed HRW seedings in Kansas and now emergence is running just behind the five-year average pace. HRW crop conditions have also been in a steady decline this fall. In addition to tough HRW conditions, pasture and range conditions in the Plains have not recovered from the summer 2012 drought. With generally poor HRW conditions, cow-calf producers have very few options to graze wheat this fall. With the lack of grazing in the Plains and forage prices at high levels, the drought is threatening to take another bite out of the U.S. cattle supply. Crop Tour page 7

After a slow start for Brazilian bean growers, weather and planting pace have improved Pro Farmer South American consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier currently estimates the Brazilian bean crop at 80 million metric tons (MMT). That’s down 2 MMT from his earlier expectations. Early in the season, conditions were too wet in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and the southern portion of Parana. Wet conditions delayed early plantings in the second- and third-largest bean growing states in Brazil. At the same time, conditions further north in the largest bean producing state of Mato Grosso were too dry and growers there waited for rain before putting seed in the ground. Now conditions are greatly improved and beans are going in the ground at a rapid pace. Dr. Cordonnier reports, “The weather pattern in central Brazil has turned wetter this past week (Nov.12-16). Most of the previously dry areas of central Brazil (Mato Grosso) and northeastern Brazil received rain over the past week and there is more rain in the forecast. This is allowing farmers in the drier areas of eastern Mato Grosso, Goias, Tocantins and Bahia to start planting their 2012-13 soybean crop. It is also allowing farmers to replant soybean fields with poor germination. “In southern Brazil, the weather has turned drier, which is helping farmers get their soybeans planted,” says Dr. Cordonnier. He says 55% to 58% of the Brazilian bean crop has been planted, which is up about 13 percentage points from the

previous week. Still, the current planting pace is about 10 points behind the normal planting pace. In Mato Grosso, about 80% of the bean crop has been planted, compared to 87% at this time last year. In Parana, farmers have planted about 74% of the crop, which is about equal to last year’s planting pace in the state. Dr. Cordonnier says, “With the return of rains to central Brazil, the soybean planting pace in Brazil should now accelerate. In parts of central Brazil, planting started two to three weeks later than normal. Also, there are some soybean fields that will now need to be replanted due to poor germination. These later-planted soybeans could still build an acceptable yield, but the bar has now been raised and growers now expect good weather during the remainder of the growing season.” Low odds of a winter corn or cotton crop — Many Brazilian growers follow the soybean harvest with a crop of corn or cotton during the southern hemisphere’s winter months. This year, however, Dr. Cordonnier is lowering the odds of a successful doublecrop season. He says, “The possibility of a second crop of corn or cotton being planted after these later-planted soybeans has now probably been eliminated. These later-planted soybeans won’t be harvested until sometime in March, making it too late to plant corn and it’s certainly too late for cotton.”

Crop Tour Soybean rust already confirmed in Mato Grosso — Researchers in Brazil have reported the first three cases of soybean rust this growing season have been confirmed in Brazil — two in Mato Grosso and one case in Santa Catarina (located between Rio Grande do Sul and Parana in southern Brazil). In both cases, reports Dr. Cordonnier, the disease was discovered on volunteer soybeans growing along the roadside. Dr. Cordonnier says, “They have been worried soybean rust could make an early appearance in commercial soybean fields this growing season because of the record number of volunteer soybean plants found along the state’s highways that were infected with the disease.” He adds, “If the disease is present on volunteer soybeans growing along the side of a field, it’s only a matter of time before it moves into the newly planted commercial soybean fields. Drier-than-normal weather in October probably slowed the spread of the spores from the volunteer beans to commercial fields, but now that rainfall has increased, it makes it easier for spores to spread across the countryside. There haven’t been any reports of farmers applying preventative fungicides yet, but in areas where the disease has been confirmed, farmers will probably start the battle against rust now.” Conab estimates record Brazilian bean crop — Conab is Brazil’s equivalent of USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). In the agency’s second monthly update, it estimated a record crop of 80 MMT to 83 MMT. • Planted acres in Brazil are expected to increase 5.5% to 9.3% from last year, to reach 26.4 million to 27.3 million hectares (64.68 million to 66.885 million acres). Last year, Brazilian farmers planted 25 million hectares. • The average soybean yield is estimated at 43.9 bu. per acre, compared to 38.5 bu. per acre last year. • If right, the 2012-13 Brazilian bean crop would be roughly 15 MMT to 20 MMT bigger than the 66.3 MMT produced last year. A crop of 80 MMT to 83 MMT is 2.94 billion to 3.049 billion bushels. Conab sees lower corn plantings — Conab’s latest estimate of full-season corn plantings is 6% below year-ago. Dr. Cordonnier says full-season corn yields should be better than last year’s drought hammered corn crop, but probably lower-than-normal due to the delayed start to corn planting. “One of the leading full-season corn producing states in Brazil is Minas Gerais,” says Dr. Cordonnier. “Up until last week, much of northern Minas Gerais had been very dry and no corn was planted. Rains have returned and the change in the weather pattern was enough for farmers to start planting the 2012-13 corn crop.” Argentina drying out after wet start — It has been a struggle to get the corn crop planted in Argentina this year. Through the first week of November, growers planted only about 40% of the crop. A small window to plant corn in the second week of November saw

plantings increase about 5%, to push total plantings to 45% done. That’s about 14 percentage points behind the year-ago planting pace. “In the heart of the corn production area, 60% to 90% of the corn crop is planted; southern Argentina is 40% to 60% planted; and northern Argentina is 5% to 20% planted.” The wide ranges of planting progress is evidence of how difficult it has been to not only get seed in the ground, but also of how difficult it is to estimate planting progress with planters moving from dry field to dry field to keep rolling. “Even though it looks like the near-term weather forecast is favorable, planting progress will probably remain slow for several more weeks,” says Dr. Cordonnier. Farmers do not like to plant corn in November because it would result in pollination occurring during the hottest time of the year. If the weather permits, planting of the corn crop will restart in early December.” Dr. Cordonnier’s South American Soybean Production Estimates Current Maximum Minimum Year-ago estimate potential potential actual (million metric tons) Brazil 80.0 83.0 75.0 66.5 Argentina 56.0 58.0 52.0 41.0 Paraguay 9.0 9.5 8.0 4.0 Bolivia 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.2 Uruguay 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.6 Total 149.2 155.3 138.5 115.3 Current “Total” estimate is up 29.4% from year-ago. Dr. Cordonnier’s South American Corn Production Estimates Current Maximum Minimum Year-ago estimate potential potential actual (million metric tons) Brazil 72.0 73.0 65.0 72.5 Argentina 22.5 26.0 20.0 21.0 Paraguay 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.9 Bolivia 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 Uruguay 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 Total 97.6 102.7 87.6 96.5 Current “Total” estimate is up 1.1% from year-ago.

Martell sees more rain headed to Argentina — Gail Martell of martellcropprojections.com says, “Corn and soybean farms in Argentina experienced extremely wet conditions, with totals reaching three- to six-times the normal rainfall in the primary grain belt. Warm and sunny weather has developed in Argentina in November, promoting the drying of soggy fields.” However, Martell says southern Argentina (southern Buenos Aires) is expected to see heavy rain Nov. 24-25. Forecasts call for one to two inches of rain with locally heavier amounts. Cordoba also is expecting showers, but relatively lighter amounts. She says, “With conditions as wet as they are, any rain is detrimental.” Weather outlook improved for Brazil — Mato Grosso soybean conditions have improved in November with generous rainfall. Almost-daily showers have occurred this month. In southern Brazil, scattered, light showers are expected to relieve dry conditions in Parana where rains are about four inches short of normal this season. Crop Tour page 9