Daily Focus

March 22, 2016

Indonesia

Daily Focus Taye Shim

+62-21-515-3281

[email protected]

To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at [email protected]

Market Index Last Trade JCI

MoM

YoY

4,885.2

0.0

3.8

-10.2

Major events are now over

23.7

-1.4

8.4

-12.3

829.1

0.3

10.3

-14.7 -15.2

On March 10th, the European Central Bank signaled that it would further stimulate inflation by paying commercial banks to lend to the real economy, and stated that it would expand its quantitative easing program by EUR20bn. On the other side of the world, the US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate on hold. Here in Indonesia, the central bank cut its reference rate by 25bps, indicating that it is endorsing the government’s economic growth agenda. We also note that most of the LQ45 companies have reported their financial results for 2015. We believe key market-driving events are now over.

MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM HANG SENG

20,684.2

0.1

6.2

KOSPI

1,989.8

0.2

3.8

-2.3

FTSE

6,184.6

-0.1

2.5

-11.9

DJIA

17,623.9

0.1

5.9

-2.9

NASDAQ

4,808.9

0.3

4.9

-4.6

Valuation 2016F JCI

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

16.9

2.5

16.6

Key Rates MoM

YoY

Policy Rate

Last Trade Chg (bps) 6.75

0

-25

-50

3yr

7.53

8

-25

39

10yr

7.71

5

-44

28

Last Trade

Chg (%)

MoM

YoY

13,152.00

0.3

-2.4

0.7

1,163.50 111.95 6.48

0.1 0.4 -0.1

-5.7 -0.9 -0.8

4.4 -6.5 4.1

FX USD/IDR USD/KRW USD/JPY USD/CNY

Calm markets ahead

Chg (%)

When will the JCI reach the next level? With big macro events now over, we expect to see a relatively boring market going forward. The JCI staged a dramatic rebound from the summer selloff in 2015, then trended within a boxed range from Sep. 2015 to Feb. 2016 before breaking out in early February of this year. The key driver behind this breakout was better-than-expected 4Q15 GDP growth (released on February 5th). Such growth was supported by 1) President Widodo’s strong commitment to the economy (and endorsed by the central bank), 2) favorable macroeconomic indicators, and 3) fundflows into the Indonesian market. Given the favorable macroeconomic backdrop through March, we expect to see further expansion of economic activity and improved corporate earnings in 1Q16. We project the JCI to break out again to a new level after the 1Q16 GDP release, which is expected to be announced in early May.

Commodities Chg (%)

MoM

YoY

41.5

0.9

18.5

-27.2

Gold

1,243.8

-0.9

2.9

4.6

Coal

43.5

0.0

0.7

-18.0

Palm Oil

695.0

-4.3

1.1

11.4

Rubber

115.9

0.0

13.8

-10.1

Nickel

8,660.0

-2.6

1.0

-39.2

Copper

5,042.0

-0.5

9.1

-16.6

16,900.0

0.0

7.1

-2.3

Tin

JCI

MSCI EM

(pt) 1,100

5,500

Transaction volume (R)

4,500

800 650 02/14

11/14

08/15

(IDRtr)

JCI (L)

8

5,400

7

5,200

6

2. Boxed range

5

4,800

4

4,600

3

4,400

950

3,500 05/13

(pt) 5,600

5,000

JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets

(pt)

JCI performance forecast

2

1. Boxed range

4,200 4,000 3/15

1 0

4/15

5/15

6/15

7/15

8/15

Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research

9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15

1/16

2/16

3/16

4/16

Billions

Last Trade WTI

Indonesia Daily Focus

March 22, 2016

Local flash BMRI: Mandiri will distribute dividends IDR6.1 trillion of 2015's profit. PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) will distribute a dividends amounting to IDR6.1 trillion this year. Total dividend equivalent to 30% of the company's profit in 2015, amounting to IDR20.3 trillion. While retained earnings of IDR11.95 trillion. "The dividend decision are taken based on the liquidity needs in developing business in the future. As well as, the company's appreciation to the shareholders for their trust and support," said Corporate Secretary of Mandiri, Rohan Hafas. (Sindonews) GJTL: Gajah Tunggal targeting revenue growth of 10% -15% this year. PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk (GJTL) expect the exchange rate could be more stable. Improvement of economic growth is also expected to drive company's revenue. GJTL believes this year it can still book a revenue growth of about 10% -15%. Chatarina Widjaja, Director GJTL said, this year the company will still rely on exports to United States (US). She said the company has not had a new export destination, but there are some new products that will be exported. (Kontan) LINK: Link Net's net profit rose 14.67%. PT Link Net Tbk (LINK), Internet services company owned by Lippo Group, posted a net profit of IDR639.53 billion in 2015, up 14.67% from the previous year. Net profit increase due to narrowing losses of the associate. Losses of associates in 2015 shrank 51.72% from 2014 (year-on-year / yoy). Meanwhile, Link Net revenue in 2015 was up 20% yoy to IDR2.56 trillion. Basic earnings per share in 2015 amounted to IDR210, increase by 14.75% from the previous year. (Bisnis Indonesia) TCID: Mandom Indonesia achieved a profit of IDR544 billion in 2015. Although sales edged up 0.3% to IDR2.31 trillion by the end of 2015, net profit of PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk soaring. In that period, net profit grew 209.7% to IDR544 billion. President Director of Mandom, Muhammad Makmun Arsyad said net profit growth was contributed by land sales, office building and factory in Sunter, North Jakarta. (Kontan) EXCL: Seven companies interested in buying XL Axiata tower. Plan of PT XL Axiata Tbk to sell 2,000 to 2,500 telecommunication towers, attracted seven tower company. Currently, the seven companies were doing their best offer in a tender. "There are seven players who will pass the final stage of auction. So far that's the information that I can share, "said Director & Chief Strategic Transformation Office XL Axiata Willem Lucas Timmermans. (Kontan) BBTN: February 2016, BTN KPR recorded at IDR3.65 trillion. KPR distribution of Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN) at the beginning of 2016 has reached IDR3.650 trillion. The acquisition is realization of Million Houses Programme initiated by the government. BTN Director Mansyur S Nasution said that, based on data owned by the company, the realization of KPR in February 2016 has reached 25,085 units or IDR3.650 trliliun. (Kontan) MMLP: Mega Manunggal targeting Lazada warehouse completed in October. PT Mega Manunggal Property Tbk is targeting to complete the construction of a warehouse for the e-commerce company Lazada of 30,000 square meters in October 2016. According to official information released by the company through the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Monday (03/21/2016), MMLP plans to build 5-6 warehouse this year. (Bisnis Indonesia)

2 KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research


March 22, 2016

Technical analysis Recommendation Close Resistance Support Stop-Loss

Indicator daily

Sell 4,885 4,895 4,850 4,810 Stoch

NM

MACD

DN

PSAR

UP

Volume

DN

GC = Golden-cross

AC = Accumulation

DC = Dead-cross

Dis = Distribution

UP = Up

OB = Overbought

DN = Down

OS = Oversold

NM = Normal

View from the Charts The Indonesia benchmark stocks prices ends slightly lower and slid by 0.02% to close at merely the same level as the last Friday at 4,885.16 levels. Bargain hunting on INDY TLKM dan PGAS along with 142 others managed to lure the infrastructure index up by 0.94% serta and tried to hold the pressure on 175 declined stocks. There were 58,36bn stocks worth IDR5,67tr traded on Monday, whilst foreign investors recorded a total net bought for IDR368.40bn across the board by accumulating UNVR LPPF GGRM AALI with some others. A tri-star bearish formation on Monday’s closed, indicates that selling pressure will be another hurdle for JCI and continue heading south for its 4,850 support. JCI expected to run mix to negative within 4,865-4,895.

Chart 1. JCI Daily Chart

Chart 2.JCI Intraday Chart

Source: HOTS, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research

Source: HOTS, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research



March 22, 2016

Chart 3. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt)

Chart 4. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (IDR)

JCI Composite Index (L)

5,000

14,200

USD/IDR (R)

(%, %p)

Absolute

4,900 14,000

4,800 4,700

4.2

3.7

4 0.2

13,800

4,600

Relative

8

0

4,500

0.0 -0.3

13,600

4,400

-4 13,400

4,300 4,200

-4.7

13,200

-8

13,000

-12

-6.9

4,100 4,000 12/21

1/4

1/18

2/1

2/15

2/29

-10.2

3/14

1D

1W

1M

4Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research

Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research

Chart 5. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM)

Chart 6. Energy price

(USDmn) 1,800

1 Day

((USD/b) 70

5 Days

1,677

1,600 1,400

1,185

1,200

CPO(R)

(MYR/MT)

2,700

65

2,600

60

2,500 2,400

55

1,000 711

800

2,300

50

2,200 45

600 283

400 157

200 0

Brent (L)

1Y

92

28 94

0

23 -3

-200 Korea

-71

2,100

40

2,000

35

1,900

30

1,800

25

Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines

India

1,700 12/15

1/16

1/16

2/16

2/16

2/16

3/16

th

Note: The latest figure for India are March,18 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research

Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research

Chart 7. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100)

Copper

Chart 8. Precious metal price Nickel

Tin

Silver

Gold

Platinum

125 120 120 110 115 100 110 90

105

80

100

70

95 12/15

1/16

2/16


3/16

12/15

1/16

2/16

3/16




March 22, 2016

Table. Key valuation metrics Price

Market Cap

(IDR) 4,885

(IDRbn)

Price Performance (%)

1D

1W

1M

1Y

5,190,283

0.0

0.2

4.0

-10.2

BBCA BMRI BBRI BBNI BBTN

13,775 10,150 11,150 5,375 1,790

339,623 236,833 275,061 100,237 18,956

0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7

1.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 5.6

5.6 9.1 -2.6 5.4 18.9

HMSP GGRM ICBP INDF

101,750 60,800 15,750 7,100

473,415 116,985 91,838 62,341

0.0 -0.3 -0.2 3.3

-2.0 -7.7 0.5 -4.7

0.8 -1.0

Company Name

Ticker

Jakarta Composite Index FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia Bank Mandiri Persero Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Bank Tabungan Negara Persero CONSUMER HM Sampoerna Gudang Garam Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur

JCI

Kalbe Farma

KLBF

1,300

60,938

Unilever Indonesia

UNVR

44,000

335,720

Astra Agro Lestari

AALI

17,700

27,873

-0.7

PP London Sumatera Indonesia

LSIP

1,660

11,326

-2.4

Sawit Sumbermas Sarana

SSMS

1,915

18,240

-2.0

XL Axiata

EXCL

4,095

34,977

Jasa Marga

JSMR

5,500

37,400

Perusahaan Gas Negara Tower Bersama Infrastructure Telekomunikasi Indonesia

PGAS TBIG TLKM SOCI

2,655 6,200 3,470

64,361 29,738 349,776

500

GIAA

439

P/E(X)*

P/B(X)*

ROE(%)*

FY16

FY17

FY16

FY17

FY16

FY17

-3.8 -16.8 -13.6 -22.7 58.4

18.2 10.6 11.1 10.2 12.8

17.2 11.2 10.4 9.2 12.0

3.7 1.8 2.5 1.2 0.9

3.2 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.1

21.9 18.5 24.1 13.4 7.2

19.9 17.0 21.1 14.6 9.4

-3.6 -5.2 4.3 5.6

53.0 17.0 4.3 -4.4

40.4 19.4 26.0 16.0

39.4 16.8 23.0 13.8

13.7 2.9 5.2 2.1

14.2 2.6 4.6 2.0

45.5 15.6 20.6 14.0

35.7 16.2 20.7 15.0

0.0

2.8

-28.2

27.3

23.8

5.2

4.6

19.8

20.3

-0.3

2.9

14.9

51.5

45.9

62.8

55.7

127.1

130.0

2.9

-0.3

-31.3

40.3

16.3

2.2

2.2

5.5

14.4

-2.1

14.1

-9.5

14.5

15.7

1.2

1.4

8.7

10.0

-5.0

-0.8

-4.0

22.4

19.2

5.4

4.8

24.1

23.1

0.6

-2.6

5.0

-4.7

N/A

44.2

2.2

2.2

-0.2

5.2

-0.9

-1.3

1.9

-22.8

24.2

22.3

3.4

3.1

14.8

14.3

1.9 2.5 0.3

1.0 3.3 0.0

2.7 4.2 8.6

-48.4 -32.8 19.5

9.9 23.4 19.7

10.6 19.2 19.0

1.6 5.1 4.1

1.5 4.2 4.3

13.6 24.1 21.7

14.1 22.8 22.5

3,530

0.0

4.2

5.9

-20.6

5.4

4.7

0.9

0.7

16.7

16.3

11,356

0.2

1.2

3.8

-12.2

26.5

17.6

2.3

2.1

7.6

12.0

AGRICULTURAL

INFRASTRUCTURE

Soechi Lines Garuda Indonesia BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia

SMGR

10,450

61,984

-0.5

-1.2

2.7

-24.3

15.0

12.9

2.6

2.1

17.9

17.2

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia

CPIN

3,470

56,901

-3.6

-1.3

0.7

-4.7

21.9

17.7

4.1

3.5

19.1

20.1

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa

INTP

20,750

76,386

0.4

0.2

7.2

-4.2

18.9

16.1

3.4

2.9

18.0

18.3

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

JPFA

810

8,635

0.6

-0.6

5.2

0.6

14.4

16.1

1.2

1.5

9.0

9.8

Indo Tambangraya Megah

ITMG

6,575

7,429

-1.9

-2.6

25.2

-62.7

6.9

9.3

0.6

0.6

7.3

7.7

Adaro Energy

ADRO

705

22,550

3.7

-4.7

20.5

-25.8

7.8

13.4

0.4

0.6

5.4

4.1

Aneka Tambang

ANTM

470

11,294

-0.8

2.8

27.4

-36.8

N/A

N/A

0.4

0.6

-9.5

-1.8

Vale Indonesia

INCO

1,840

18,283

2.8

-4.2

22.3

-45.8

23.6

28.0

0.6

0.8

2.8

4.0

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

PTBA

6,825

15,726

3.8

6.6

46.1

-34.1

4.8

10.1

1.0

1.5

23.2

15.9

United Tractors

UNTR

15,675

58,470

0.0

1.8

-1.6

-26.8

16.4

9.9

1.7

1.4

10.3

13.9

AKR Corporindo Global Mediacom Matahari Department Store

AKRA BMTR LPPF

7,125 975 18,000

28,137 13,844 52,523

-3.7 3.2 -1.4

-7.5 6.0 -1.8

-7.5 21.9 11.8

48.4 -46.0 -1.6

27.3 11.2 28.8

21.9 9.4 24.3

4.7 1.1 46.4

4.0 1.0 26.5

18.0 11.2 281.5

18.5 12.2 138.5

Media Nusantara Citra

MNCN

2,100

29,980

0.2

3.4

37.7

-25.9

15.8

13.7

2.8

2.5

18.4

19.3

Matahari Putra Prima

MPPA

1,680

9,035

1.2

-2.6

-5.9

-56.6

19.0

16.3

2.6

2.3

14.4

15.3

Surya Citra Media

SCMA

3,155

46,131

1.9

7.7

11.1

-8.8

27.1

23.4

9.9

8.2

40.0

39.0

Siloam International Hospital

SILO

7,675

8,873

-1.3

-3.5

-9.7

-42.7

160.9

80.1

6.5

4.9

4.1

5.1

Bumi Serpong Damai

BSDE

1,910

36,761

0.5

7.6

10.4

-5.4

16.0

13.3

1.8

1.7

12.5

13.5

Adhi Karya

ADHI

2,760

9,828

-1.3

0.2

6.6

-0.8

10.6

15.9

1.5

1.8

13.7

11.4

Alam Sutera Realty

ASRI

384

7,545

-0.8

-2.8

8.5

-33.8

6.5

6.1

1.0

0.8

14.0

13.7

Ciputra Development

CTRA

1,325

20,313

0.0

-0.4

1.1

-2.6

13.7

12.2

2.1

1.9

15.6

15.7

Lippo Karawaci

LPKR

1,150

26,539

0.9

6.5

11.7

-8.0

44.0

17.2

1.4

1.5

3.3

9.8

Pembangunan Perumahan

PTPP

3,860

18,692

-0.5

-1.0

0.9

-0.6

25.3

20.2

4.3

4.4

22.0

22.6

Pakuwon Jati

PWON

520

25,043

-3.7

-1.0

11.8

-2.8

11.3

9.6

2.6

2.2

25.5

24.3

Summarecon Agung Wijaya Karya Waskita Karya MISCELLANEOUS Astra International

SMRA WIKA WSKT

1,705 2,645 2,010

24,598 16,265 27,281

0.3 -1.1 0.2

5.6 3.7 4.1

8.9 -1.5 4.4

1.2 -26.5 15.5

17.9 25.9 18.5

15.6 20.7 21.3

3.3 3.7 2.4

2.8 3.2 2.6

19.3 15.1 16.9

19.2 16.0 13.1

ASII

7,450

301,602

0.0

3.5

8.0

-8.0

16.8

16.3

2.4

2.7

14.6

16.6

MINING

TRADE

PROPERTY

Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates



March 22, 2016

Sector performance

Top 10 market cap performance

Name Agricultural Mining Basic-Industry Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Goods Property & Construction Infrastructure Finance Trade Composite

Index 1,813.3 907.9 430.1 1,249.3 2,304.1 500.0 1,045.6 709.5 840.1 4,885.2

Chg (%) -0.8 0.2 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 0.9 0.3 -0.4 0.0

Ticker PSAB IJ TOWR IJ TELE IJ BSIM IJ PTBA IJ ADRO IJ INDF IJ BMTR IJ INCO IJ BISI IJ

Price 1140 4100 790 490 6825 705 7100 975 1840 1795

Market Cap (IDRbn) 6,033 41,832 5,627 6,936 15,726 22,550 62,341 13,844 18,283 5,385

Chg (%)

Chg (%)

Close

7.0 5.13 4.64 4.26 3.80 3.68 3.3 3.17 2.8 2.57

Source: Bloomberg

Top 5 leading movers

Top 5 lagging movers

Name

Chg (%)

TOWR

IJ

Close

Name

5.1

4,100

UNVR

IJ

-1.0

44,000

INDF

IJ

3.3

7,100

CPIN

IJ

-3.6

3,470

BBCA

IJ

0.6

13,775

BYAN

IJ

-6.3

7,500

PGAS

IJ

1.9

2,655

MIKA

IJ

-3.9

2,500

BMRI

IJ

0.5

10,150

AKRA

IJ

-3.7

7,125

Source: Bloomberg

Economic Calendar Time 7:30am 7:45am 9:00am 11:30am 12:30pm 2:00pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:30pm 3:30pm 4:00pm 4:00pm 4:00pm 4:30pm 4:30pm 4:30pm 4:30pm 4:30pm 4:30pm 4:30pm 5:00pm 5:00pm 8:00pm 8:45pm 9:00pm 9:00pm

Currency AUD AUD JPY JPY AUD CHF EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP GBP GBP GBP GBP GBP GBP EUR EUR USD USD EUR USD

Detail HPI q/q RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks Flash Manufacturing PMI All Industries Activity m/m RBA Gov Stevens Speaks Trade Balance French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI German Ifo Business Climate Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI CPI y/y PPI Input m/m Public Sector Net Borrowing RPI y/y Core CPI y/y HPI y/y PPI Output m/m German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment HPI m/m Flash Manufacturing PMI Belgian NBB Business Climate Richmond Manufacturing Index

Forecast 0.1%

Previous 2.0%

50.6 1.9%

50.1 -0.9%

2.88B 50.2 49.5 50.9 55.1 106.1 51.4 53.5 0.4% 0.4% 5.4B 1.3% 1.2% 6.9% 0.0% 6.3 8.2 0.5% 51.6 -6.0 -1

3.51B 50.2 49.2 50.5 55.3 105.7 51.2 53.3 0.3% -0.7% -11.8B 1.3% 1.2% 6.7% -0.1% 1.0 13.6 0.4% 51.0 -6.6 -4

Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory



March 22, 2016

Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purpo sed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any resp onsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any i naccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their office rs and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia 2015.
