DIHK-Economic-Survey February 2018 - GACC South

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50. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ... sts la ck o f skilled w o rkers exch a n g e ra tes*
20 10 0 ECONOMIC TRENDS IN GERMANY -10 -20

-40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Enterprises' Employment Intentions Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions

– in Points long-time-average= -7

Risks for the economic development -in percent, *export-industry domestic demand foreign demand* Enterprises' Employment Intentions – in Points 20 70

financing conditions labour costs lack Balance of skilledofworkers rates* “higher” and “lower” Opinionsexchange long-time-average= -7 Prices of energy and raw materials economic policy conditions

14

60

10

50

400 30

-10 20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Risks for the economic development domestic demand

2018

0

-30

2017

10 -20 2016

Companies‘ investment plans are more expansive than ever Enterprises' Investment Intentions – inatPoints before. Many companies are now operating the limit of their of “higher”confi and “lower” long-time-average= -2 capacity.Balance Furthermore, denceOpinions in the continuing high demand for30their goods and services is increasing. Manufacturing industry 22 in 20 particular is planning to expand, while the construction industry 10 and retail trade also want to increase their capital expenditure. In view of this development, more companies than ever before 0 intend to expand their capacities. The investment motive of pro-10 duct innovations also reaches a record level. The high investment -20 requirements of digitalization are likely to materialize more and -30 more. Besides the modernization of existing products and pro-40 cesses, companies also see a great need to develop new business 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 models and production processes.

and areandonly slightly below that among service Balance of and “higher” “lower” Opinions long-time-average= -2 20 commerce, providers. The dynamism in manufacturing industry and among 30 14 IT 10 providers is particularly strong at the current margin. Only service 22 20 the10 fi nancial services industry continues to expect declining per0 sonnel budgets. Overall, the growth in employment is becoming 0 -10 increasingly difficult to implement as a result of the shortage of -10 skilled workers, which has become by far the greatest obstacle for -20 -20 companies in the meantime. In 2010, only 16 percent of compa-30cited this as a business risk - compared with 60 percent today. -30 nies 2007 2008 of 2009 2010 2011is 2012 2014 2015 2017 2018wor-40shortage The personnel also 2013 reflected in the2016 increasing 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ries of companies across all sectors about labor costs.

2015

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

long-time-average=21

EmploymentEmployment intentions areIntentions increasing across all sectors, haEnterprises' – in Points Enterprises' Investment Intentions – in Points ving reached new highs in manufacturing industry, construction Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions long-time-average= -7

2014

31

Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions

2013

long-time-average=21

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40

30

50 22 20 40 10 31 30 200 10 -10 0 -20 -10 -30 -20 -40 -30 -40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2012

– in Points

Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions

Enterprises' Investment Intentions – in Points Enterprises' Export Expectations – in Points Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions long-time-average= -2

2011

The export expectations of the manufacturing industry imEnterprises' Business – in Pointsare therefore prove for the fourth time inExpectations succession. Companies as optimistic their business as they last were seBalanceabout of “better” and export “worse” Opinions long-time-average=5 ven 30years ago. The risk of foreign demand is declining noticeably thanks 20 to a robustly growing global economy. The good economic 18 developments in the most important sales markets, as well as the 10 increase in global investment activities, are generating increasing 0 demand for German products. However, risks remain due to the -10 difficult framework economic conditions in some regions, protec-20 tionist tendencies and the forthcoming Brexit. Companies have so-30 far been able to avoid any downturn due to good business in -40 Europe and dynamic economic development, for example in the 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USA 2007 and China.

Enterprises' Export Expectations

10 00 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40

-in percent, *export-industry

foreign demand*

DIHK-Economic-Survey February 2018 79 Chambers of Industry and Commerce ask, approximately 26.000 Enterprises answer

economy data at a glance

10

-10

0

ECONOMIC TRENDS IN GERMANY -10

-20 2018 FEBRUARY

DIHK-FORECAST 2018

-30

-20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Enterprises' Business Expectations

Risks for the economic development

– in Points

Balance of “better” and “worse” Opinions

long-time-average=5

30 20

18

70

10

60

0

50

domestic demand financing conditions lack of skilled workers Prices of energy and raw materials

-in percent, *export-industry

foreign demand* labour costs exchange rates* economic policy conditions

30

-20

20

2018

2017

2016

2015

Wirtschaftspolitische Rahmenbedingungen

Energie- und Rohstoffpreise

Wechselkurs*

Fachkräftemangel

Arbeitskosten

Finanzierung

Auslandsnachfrage*

Inlandsnachfrage

2014

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2013

-40

10 2012

Geschäftsrisiken (in Prozent *Industrieunternehmen)

2011

-30

The optimismExport of companies with regard their business exEnterprises' Expectations – intoPoints

pectations is increasing again significantly afterlong-time-average=21 a slight slowdown Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions last fall. Here in Germany, rising employment and purchasing po50 Jahresbeginn 2016 45 11 40 43 19 24 44 44 wer Further 40 gains are Frühsommer 2016boosting 45 the 42 economy. 11 40 43more, 16 companies 24 43are Herbst 43 44 40 and 48 foreign 15 demand 25 38 31fall investing about11domestic 30 2016more. Concerns Jahresbeginn 40 greatest 39 11 40 for 48 17 20 sharply once2017 again. The obstacle companies by32far is43the Frühsommer 2017 38 37 11 39 51 15 31 41 10 shortage of skilled workers. needed56vacancies remain unHerbst 2017 37 33If urgently 10 40 18 30 38 0 fiJahresbeginn lled, it becomes process13current 38 2018 more 33 and27more10difficult 42 to 60 32 orders. -10 The second greatest risk is the development in labor costs. -20 -30 -40

Companies assess their business situation better than ever before. They made it through the winter even better than expected in the fall. Even in the construction industry, the cold months are hardly able to spoil the very good situation. Manufacturing industry in particular is much more content than in the fall and is benefiting from the recovery in world trade and increased investment confidence. In addition, retailers and service providers are also reporting new records in their situation assessments.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

February 2016 -10 Summer 2016 Early Fall -202016 February 2017 -30 Early Summer 2017 -402017 Fall 20072018 2008 2009 February

45 44 11 40 45 42 11 40 43 44 11 40 40 39 11 40 38 37 11 39 37 33 10 40 2010 2014 33 2011 27 2012 10 201342

economic policy conditions

exchange rates*

22

43 19 24 44 43 16 24 43 48 15 25 38 48 17 32 43 51 15 31 41 56 18 30 38 2015 60 2016 13 2017 32 2018 38

Enterprises' Employment Intentions Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions

long-time-average= -2 prices of energy and raw materials

0

labor costs

10

financing conditions

20

foreign demand*

domestic demand

Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions 30

lack of skilled workers

Risks for the economic development (in –percent; Enterprises' Investment Intentions in Points * Industry)

– in Points long-time-average= -7

Assessment of the Situation

– in Points

Balance of “good” and “bad” Opinions

long-time-average=12

50

2016

2017

DIHKForecast 2018

GDP

1.9

2.2

2.7

Final consumption expenditure of private households

2.1

2.0

1.9

Government final consumption expenditure

3.7

1.4

1.8

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)

3.1

3.0

4.4

GFCF in machinery and equipment

2.2

3.5

7.0

Other fixed assets

5.5

3.5

5.0

GFCF in construction

2.7

2.6

2.5

Exports

2.6

4.7

6.5

Imports

3.9

5.2

7.0

Unemployment (in millions)

2.69

2.53

2.39

Employment (change in thousand)

+569

+638

+600

0.5

1.8

1.7

in per cent, use of the gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted, chain-linked

40

-10

Germany, changes on the previous year

48

40 30

Consumer price

20 10 0 -10 -20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Enterprises' Business Expectations Balance of “better” and “worse” Opinions

– in Points long-time-average=5

Editor: © DIHK | Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag e. V. Breite Strasse 29 | 10178 Berlin-Mitte | www.dihk.de Responsible: Sophia Krietenbrink | DIHK | February 2018