Do people prefer active MPs? - Twaweza

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Aug 14, 2010 - Laus Omar Mhina. 55. Korogwe Vijijini. M. Lost. Idd Mohamed Azzan. 54. KiNonendoni. M. Won. Prof. Philemo
Do people prefer active MPs? MP performance in 2010 CCM primaries

Introduction What sort of MPs do people prefer? Do members of political parties value MPs who have been active in Parliament, who have made vocal contributions and asked critical questions? Do voters care about how much their MPs have held the executive to account on the floor of the Bunge? One indicator for answering these questions is to analyze the relationship between active/dormant MPs and their performance in the preferential polls of CCM, the dominant political party in Tanzania. In the poll held on Sunday 1st August, 2010, 203 elected CCM MPs were trying to become CCM flag bearers in the upcoming general election. Of these, 75 lost and 128 won. The final decision on which candidates will stand for the Party during the national elections is expected to be made by CCM’s National Executive Committee (NEC) in Dodoma on August 14, 2010, but the poll gives an indication of the preferences of its ordinary members. In this note we present six key facts regarding the relationship between the participation of MPs in Parliament and their performance in the CCM polls. Data for the participation in Parliament is drawn from the Uwazi brief entitled Do they work for us? Update on the 19th session of the Bunge (brief and full dataset can be downloaded from www.uwazi.org), which is based on information provided in the Bunge website; data on poll results is drawn from newspaper reports. 1 In assessing which CCM Members of Parliament lost and won, we only report on elected MPs. The assessment does not include 71 MPs who are appointed as special seats legislators (58), by the Zanzibar House or Representatives (3), who are presidential appointees (9) and the Attorney General. It also excludes 4 MPs who ‘retired’, leaving 203 for consideration. Of these, 44 are elected high level Government officials (4 Regional Commissioners, 22 Ministers, 15 Deputy Ministers, the Speaker, Deputy Speaker and the Prime Minister) and 159 are ‘ordinary’ elected MPs.

1

See http://www.dailynews.co.tz/election/index_news.php?articleID=115.

This brief was produced by the Uwazi InfoShop at Twaweza, housed by Hivos Tanzania. P.O. Box 38342, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Phone +255 22 266 4301. Fax +255 22 266 4308. Email: [email protected]. Web: www.uwazi.org.

Fact 1: Ordinary MPs were more likely to lose than elected high level officials Of the 44 elected high level Government officials who participated in the preferential vote, only 5 lost. Out of the 159 ‘ordinary’ elected CCM MPs 70 lost. In other words 11% of high level officials lost their re-election, compared to 44% of the ‘ordinary’ elected CCM MPs. This suggests that ordinary MPs have a significantly more difficult time returning to Parliament as compared with those in leadership positions. Figure 1: Percent of elected CCM MPs who lost the preferential vote 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

44%

11%

Ordinary MPs

High level government officials

Source of data: Newspaper sources

Fact 2: Male and female MPs were about as likely to win the preferential vote Out of 16 elected female MPs, 6 lost the preferential vote; out of 187 male elected MPs, 69 lost the preferential vote, i.e. slightly over one-third of both male and female MPs lost in the polls. This suggests that female and male MPs were about as likely to win in the primaries. Figure 2: Percent of elected male and female CCM MPs who lost the preferential vote 38%

37%

Female

Male

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Source of data: Newspaper sources

Fact 3: Active male MPs were less successful in the polls 2

Using the data from the Uwazi brief on the number of contributions made by MPs during the 19 sessions of the 2005-2010 Bunge, it is possible to relate how active MPs were in the Bunge to their performance in the primaries. As Figure 3 demonstrates, elected ‘ordinary’ male MPs who won the primaries were less active in Parliament than those who lost the primaries. Figure 3: Contributions per ordinary elected male CCM MP, by winning or losing in the CCM primaries 90.0 80.0

77.7 64.3

70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Lost

Won

Source: Uwazi leaflet and newspaper sources

Fact 4: Active female MPs were more successful in the polls Unlike male MPs, ‘ordinary’ female CCM MPs who won in the primaries were much more active in Parliament than those who lost. In fact, female MPs who won were one and a half time more active as those who lost. Figure 4: Contributions per ordinary elected female CCM MP, by winning or losing in the CCM primaries 120.0

109.5

100.0 80.0

75.4

60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Lost

Won

Source: Uwazi leaflet and newspaper sources

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Fact 5: Of the 10 least active CCM MPs, all won in the polls All ten CCM MPs who are not high level government officials and who participated the least in Parliament won in the polls, many with large landslides. Illustrative is the case of Hon. Aziz who made zero contributions in the Bunge but who still won his re-election. Table 1: Performance in CCM primaries of ten least active elected ‘ordinary’ CCM MPs during the nineteen sessions of the Bunge since 2005 MP Name

Total contributions

Gender

Status in CCM primaries

Rostam Abdulrasul Aziz

0

M

Won

Mossy Suleiman Mussa

3

M

Won

Salum Khamis Salum

4

M

Won

Juma Suleiman N'hunga

5

M

Won

Lolesia Jeremiah Bukwimba

5

F

Won

Hassan Rajab Khatib

6

M

Won

Omar Sheha Mussa

7

M

Won

Abdallah Salum Sumry

7

M

Won

William Jonathan Kusila

9

M

Won

Mohammed Gulam Dewji Source: Uwazi leaflet and newspaper sources

10

M

Won

Fact 6: Seventy percent of the most active MPs lost in the polls Since the last parliamentary elections in 2005, Jenista Mhagama has been the most active, ordinary CCM MP in the Bunge, followed by Hon. Ndugai with a total of 286 interventions, and Hon. Msindai, with a total of 222 interventions. How the ten most active MPs fared in the polls is presented below: Table 2: Performance in CCM primaries of ten most active elected ‘ordinary’ CCM MPs during the nineteen sessions of the Bunge since 2005 MP Name

Total contributions

Gender

Status in CCM primaries

Jenista Joakim Mhagama

362

F

Won

Job Yustino Ndugai

286

M

Won

Mgana Izumbe Msindai

222

M

Lost

Godfrey Weston Zambi

219

M

Won

George Malima Lubeleje

197

M

Lost

Juma Hassan Killimbah

196

M

Lost

William Hezekia Shellukindo

187

M

Lost

Prof. Raphael Benedict Mwalyosi

171

M

Lost

Siraju Juma Kaboyonga

162

M

Lost

Mohamed Rished Abdallah Source: Uwazi leaflet and newspaper sources

147

M

Lost

Being active in Parliament does not guarantee winning the CCM primaries as the case of Hon. Msindai illustrates. In fact, it may be a liability. Out of the 10 most active CCM MPs, a remarkable 7 lost in the primaries.

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Conclusion This document has compared results of the CCM primaries to the participation of MPs during 19 sessions of the 2005-2010 Bunge. Findings reveal that less active MPs were more likely to win. This is very clear when considering the 10 most active ordinary CCM MPs, of whom 7 did not survive the primaries. By contrast, all of the least active MPs won in the polls. The only exception holds for female CCM MPs, for whom holds that the more active ones were more likely to win in the primaries. High level government officials were found to have a very high chance to win their primaries; much higher than that of MPs who did not serve in high government positions. These findings raise questions about the role and functioning of Parliament and the preferences of the ordinary CCM members who voted in the preferential polls. In particular, it raises questions about the extent to which CCM MPs are valued for the way in which they hold the executive to account on the floor of the Bunge.

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Annex 1: Ranking of Elected CCM MP Participation in Parliament and Results of CCM Primaries Name Jenista Joakim Mhagama Job Yustino Ndugai Mgana Izumbe Msindai Godfrey Weston Zambi George Malima Lubeleje Juma Hassan Killimbah William Hezekia Shellukindo Prof. Raphael Benedict Mwalyosi Siraju Juma Kaboyonga Mohamed Rished Abdallah Michael Lekule Laizer John Paul Lwanji Lucas Lumambo Selelii George Boniface Simbachawene Emmanuel Jumanne Luhahula Ruth Blasio Msafiri Vita Rashid Kawawa Bujiku Philip Sakila Aloyce Bent Kimaro Hafidh Ali Tahir Benson Mwailugula Mpesya Raynald Alfons Mrope Herbert James Mntangi Paul Peter Kimiti Zubeir Ali Maulid Mohamed Hamisi Missanga Dr. Chrisant Majiyatanga Mzindakaya Ponsiano Damiano Nyami Castor Raphael Ligallama Felix Ntibenda Kijiko Paschal Constantine Degera Andrew John Chenge Stanley Jilaoneka Yono Kevela Fuya Godwin Kimbita Omar Shabani Kwaangw' Gosbert Begumisa Blandes Mussa Azan Zungu Jacob Dalali Shibiliti Mbaruk Kassim Mwandoro Prof. Idris Ali Mtulia Peter Joseph Serukamba James Daudi Lembeli Masolwa Cosmas Masolwa Dr. Guido Gorogolio Sigonda Charles N. Keenja Ubungo Clemence Beatus Lyamba Anne Kilango Malecela Victor Kilasile Mwambalaswa Daniel Nicodem Nsanzugwanko James Philipo Musalika Vuai Abdallah Khamis Hassan Chande Kigwalilo Dr. Binilith Satano Mahenge Dr. Harrison George Mwakyembe Vedastusi Mathayo Manyinyi Stephen Jones Galinoma Dr. Luka Jelas Siyame Dr. Raphael Masunga Chegeni Teddy Louise Kasella-Bantu Juma Abdallah Njwayo Dr. Samson Ferdinand Mpanda Mwinchoum Abdulrahman Idd Msomi Dr. Charles Ogesa F. Mlingwa

Contributions 362 286 222 219 197 196 187 171 162 147 145 141 132 130 128 127 127 125 124 121 119 116 116 114 112 111 110 110 108 108 107 107 107 107 106 105 101 99 91 91 90 90 90 89 89 88 87 86 86 86 85 85 84 84 84 79 79 78 77 77 75 75 73

Constituency Peramiho Kongwa Iramba Mashariki Mbozi Mashariki Mpwapwa Iramba Magharibi Bumbuli Ludewa Tabora Mjini Pangani Longido Manyoni Magharibi Nzega Kibakwe Bukombe Muleba Kaskazini Namtumbo Kwimba Vunjo Dimani Mbeya Mjini Masasi Muheza Sumbawanga Mjini Kwamtipura Singida Kusini Kwela Nkasi Kilombero Muhambwe Kondoa South Bariadi Magharibi Njombe Magharibi Hai Babati Mashariki Karagwe Ilala Misungwi Mkinga Rufiji Kigoma Mjini Kahama Bububu Songwe Ubungo Mikumi Same Mashariki Lupa Kasulu East Nyang'hwale Magogoni Liwale Makete Kyela Musoma Mjini Kalenga Mbozi Magharibi Busega Bukene Tandahimba Kilwa Kaskazini Kigamboni Shinyanga Mjini

Sex F M M M M M M M M M M M M M M F M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M F M M M M M M M M M M M F M M M M

Position

Primaries result Won Won Lost Won Lost Lost Lost Lost Lost Lost Won Won Lost Won Won Lost Won Lost Lost Won Won Lost Won Won Won Lost Won Lost Lost Lost Lost Won Lost Won Lost Won Won Lost Won Lost Won Won Won Lost Retired Lost Won Won Won Lost Won Won Won Won Won Retired Won Lost Lost Won Won Lost Lost

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Name Dr. Zainab Amir Gama Christopher Olonyokie Ole-Sendeka Jackson Muvangila Makwetta Ernest Gakeya Mabina Manju Salum Omar Msambya Capt. John Damiano Komba Haroub Said Masoud Beatrice Matumbo Shellukindo Amb. Getrude Ibengwe Mongella Dr. Festus Bulugu Limbu Ludovick John Mwananzila Hasnain Gulamabbas Dewji Ameir Ali Ameir Estherina Julio Kilasi Mzee Ngwali Zubeir Amb. Abdi Hassan Mshangama Kaika Saning'o Telele Suleiman Omar Kumchaya Athumani Saidi Janguo Yahya Kassim Issa Mtutura Abdallah Mtutura Hamza Abdallah Mwenegoha Mohammed Rajab Soud Gaudence Cassian Kayombo Dr. Juma Alifa Ngasongwa Ramadhani Athumani Maneno Said Juma Nkumba Ephraim Nehemia Madeje Lazaro Samuel Nyalandu Damas Pascal Nakei Abdul Jabiri Marombwa Wilson Mutagaywa Masilingi Dr. Abdallah Omar Kigoda John Samwel Malecela Fred Mpendazoe Tungu Basil Pesambili Mramba Luhaga Joelson Mpina Laus Omar Mhina Idd Mohamed Azzan Prof. Philemon Mikol Sarungi Richard Mganga Ndassa Dunstan Daniel Mkapa Benito William Malangalila Dr. Omari Mzeru Nibuka Charles Muguta Kajege Dr. Ibrahim Said Msabaha Parmukh Singh Hoogan Mudhihir Mohamed Mudhihir Dr. Anthony Mwandu Diallo Ahmed Ally Salum Kilontsi Muhama Mporogomyi Nazir Mustafa Karamagi Abdulkarim Esmail Hassan Shah Ussi Ame Pandu Kheri Khatib Ameir Feteh Saad Mgeni Elisa David Mollel Dr. Haji Mwita Haji Mohamed Said Sinani Prof. Feethan Philipo Banyikwa Brg. Gen. Hassan Athumani Ngwilizi Harith Bakari Mwapachu Joseph James Mungai Eustace Osler Katagira Tatu Musa Ntimizi

Contributions 73 73 72 72 72 71 71 70 70 70 69 69 68 68 68 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 63 63 63 61 61 60 60 60 60 59 58 58 57 57 57 55 54 53 53 51 50 49 48 48 47 46 44 43 42 40 40 38 38 37 37 36 35 35 35 35 34 33 32

Constituency Kibaha Simanjiro Njombe Kaskazini Geita Kigoma South Mbinga Magharibi Koani Kilindi Ukerewe Magu Kalambo Kilwa Kusini Fuoni Mbarali Mkwajuni Lushoto Ngorongoro Lulindi Kisarawe Chwaka Tunduru Morogoro Kusini Jang'ombe Mbinga Mashariki Ulanga Magharibi Chalinze Sikonge Dodoma Mjini Singida Nonerth Babati Magharibi Kibiti Muleba South Handeni Mtera Kishapu Rombo Kisesa Korogwe Vijijini KiNonendoni Rorya Sumve Nanyumbu Mufindi Kusini Morogoro Mjini Mwibara Kibaha Vijijini Kikwajuni Mchinga Ilemela Solwa Kasulu Magharibi Bukoba Vijijini Mafia Mtoni Matemwe Bumbwini Arumeru Magharibi Muyuni Mtwara Mjini Ngara Mlalo Tanga Mufindi Kaskazini Kyerwa Igalula

Sex F M M M M M M F F M M M M F M M M M M M M M M F M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M F

Position

Primaries result Lost Won Lost Lost Lost Won Won Won Won Won Lost Won Won Lost Lost Lost Won Lost Lost Won Won Won Won Won Lost Lost Lost Lost Won Lost Won Lost Won Lost Retired Won Won Lost Won Lost Won Lost Lost Lost Lost Lost Lost Lost Won Won Lost Lost Won Won Won Won Lost Lost Lost Lost Won Lost Lost Won Lost

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Name Mohammed Amour Chombon Ame Pandu Ame Abdisalaam Issa Khatib Haji Juma Sereweji Benedict Ngalama Ole-Nangoro John Magale Shibuda Rita Louise Mlaki Ali Juma Haji Ahmed Mabkhut Shabiby Issa Kassim Issa Edward Ngoyai Lowassa Gideon Asimulike Cheyo Mohamed Ali Said Abbas Zuberi Mtemvu Rajab Ahmad Juma Samuel Mchele Chitalilo Zabein Muhaji Mhita Col. Saleh Ali Farrah Nimrod Elirehema Mkono Felix Christopher Mrema Sameer Ismail Lotto Rev. Luckson Ndaga Mwanjale Suleiman Ahmed Saddiq Oscar Rwegasira Mukasa Ali Ameir Mohamed Mohammed Gulam Dewji William Jonathan Kusila Abdallah Salum Sumry Omar Sheha Mussa Hassan Rajab Khatib Lolesia Jeremiah Bukwimba Juma Suleiman N'hunga Salum Khamis Salum Mossy Suleiman Mussa Rostam Abdulrasul Aziz

Contributions 31 29 28 28 27 26 26 25 23 23 23 23 21 19 19 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 0

Constituency Magomeni Nungwi Makunduchi Mwanakwerekwe Kiteto Maswa Kawe Chaani Gairo Mpendae Monduli Ileje Mgogoni Temeke Tumbatu Buchosa Kondoa Kaskazini Raha Leo Musoma Vijijini Arusha Morogoro-Kusini–Mash. Mbeya Vijijini Mvomero Biharamulo Magharibi Donge Singida Mjini Bahi Mpanda Magharibi Chumbuni Amani Busanda Dole Meatu Mfenesini Igunga

Sex M M M M M M F M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M F M M M M

Position

Primaries result Won Won Lost Won Won Lost Retired Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Lost Won Lost Won Lost Lost Won Lost Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won

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Name Samuel John Sitta Anne Semamba Makinda William Mganga Ngeleja Stephen Masatu Wasira Prof. Jumanne Abdallah Maghembe Prof. David Homeli Mwakyusa Dr. Mary Michael Nagu Dr. Shukuru Jumanne Kawambwa Prof. Mark James Mwandosya Philip Sang'ka Marmo Ezekiel Magolyo Maige Dr.John Pombe Joseph Magufuli Mustafa Haidi Mkulo Capt. John Zefania Chiligati Hawa Abdulrahman Ghasia Aggrey Deaisile Joshua Mwanri Prof. Juma Athuman Kapuya Lawrence Kego Masha Prof. Peter Mahamudu Msolla Capt. George Huruma Mkuchika Bernard Kamillius Membe Christopher Kajoro Chiza Adam Kighoma Ali Malima Omar Yussuf Mzee Dr. Diodorus Buberwa Kamala Dr. James Mnanka Wanyancha Mizengo Kayanza Peter Pinda Mathias Meinrad Chikawe Joel Nkaya Bendera Dr. Cyril August Chami Celina Ompeshi Kombani Dr. Hussein Ali Mwinyi Dr. Milton Makongoro Mahanga Muhammed Seif Khatib Ambassador Hamis Suedi Kagasheki Dr. David Mathayo David Dr. James Alex Msekela Hezekiah Ndahani Chibulunje Mohammed Abdi Abdulaziz Jeremiah Solomon Sumari Dr. Emmanuel John Nchimbi Ambassador Seif Ali Iddi Mbega Monica Ngezi William Vangimembe Lukuvi

Total contributions 716 566 150 144 127 116 103 98 90 84 82 76 69 69 64 63 61 54 54 51 40 39 37 37 36 34 34 32 24 24 23 23 22 20 18 16 14 14 12 10 9 7 6 4

Constituency Urambo Mashariki Njombe Kusini Sengerema Bunda Mwanga Rungwe Magharibi Hanang Bagamoyo Rungwe Mashariki Mbulu Msalala Biharamulo Mashariki Kilosa Manyoni Mashariki Mtwara Vijijini Siha Urambo Magharibi Nyamagana Kilolo Newala Mtama Buyungu Mkuranga Kiembesamaki Nkenge Serengeti Mpanda Mashariki Nachingwea Korogwe Mashariki Moshi Vijijini Ulanga Mashariki Kwahani Ukonga Uzini Bukoba Mjini Same Magharibi Tabora Kaskazini Chilonwa Lindi Mjini Arumeru Mashariki Songea Mjini Kitope Iringa Mjini Isman

Sex M F M M M M F M M M M M M M F M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M F M M M M M M M M M M M F M

Position Speaker Deputy speaker Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Deputy Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Deputy Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Minister Deputy Minister Deputy Minister Deputy Minister Minister Deputy Minister Prime Minister Minister Deputy Minister Deputy Minister Minister Minister Deputy Minister Minister Deputy Minister Deputy Minister Regional Commissioner Deputy Minister Regional Commissioner Deputy Minister Deputy Minister Deputy Minister Regional Commissioner Regional Commissioner

Primaries results Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Lost Lost Won Won Lost Won Won Won Won Won Won Won Lost Won Won Won Won Won Lost Won

Source: Uwazi leaflet and newspaper sources

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