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Jan 17, 2018 - corporate investment spending consequent on the damaging impact of large FX rate movements in the last 3 years on corporates' balance sheet. Already, assumptions included in the template are urgently due for upward review on the back of the increase in the landing cost of PMS. – following the oil price.
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Outline

Section 1

Executive Summary

04

Section 2

Global Economy and Financial Markets Review and Outlook

14



Synchronised Global Growth Expansion to Continue Despite Policy Stability Risks

15



Policy Normalization by Systemic Central Banks Remains Downside Risk to EMs & DEs Growth

16

Global Markets: Consensus Opinion Points to Further Gains against Strong Macro Backdrop

16



Section 3

Domestic Macroeconomic Review and Outlook

17



The Recession and its Aftermath

18



Business Cycle Turnaround: Cyclical Oil Earnings Upswing Masks Structural Reform Inertia

19

2018 Macroeconomic Prognoses…Consolidating the Recovery

22



Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Section 7

Afrinvest West Africa

Equities Market Review and Outlook

29



Equites Market Performance and Outlook – A possible Game of Two Halves?

30



Sector Performance…Broad Based Rally Recorded across Sectors

31



Our Scenario Analysis in 2018

32



Equities Market Prognoses for 2018…The Era of “Happy-go-lucky Trading” to Fizzle Out

35

Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook

37



Sustained Tight Monetary Policy Bolstered Activity in Fixed Income Market

38



Fixed Income Market Prognoses in 2018… Overall Activity Should Favour Optimal Return

41

Alternative Asset Classes

43



Real Estate Market Review and Outlook

44



Derivatives Market Review and Outlook

46



Global Commodities Review and Outlook

49

Investment Strategy for 2018

53



Consumer Goods Portfolio

55



Banking Quality Portfolio

56



Short-Term Dividend Income Portfolio

56



Long-Term Dividend Portfolio

57



Sentiment Portfolio

57



Smart Eurobond Portfolio

57

Page 2

Outline



Low Risk Aggressive Portfolio

58



High Return Long-Bond Portfolio

58



Passive Bond Portfolio

59

Section 8

List of Charts, Tables and Figures

60

Section 9

Afrinvest (West Africa) Limited

63



Contact

64



Disclaimer

65

Afrinvest West Africa

Page 3

Section One Executive Summary

Nigerian Economic & Financial Market Outlook 2018

Page 4

Executive Summary

Global Macroeconomic Highlights The global economy continued to record synchronised expansion across regions in 2017. This has been supported by sustained momentum in Advanced Economies (AEs), brought about by favourable financial conditions and cyclical recovery in the Euro Area, resilient growth in China and rebound in frontier markets propped by increase in commodity prices. The strong and synchronised global growth upswing is expected to continue into 2018, with the IMF revising 2018 forecast upward by 0.1% to 3.7% in October 2017 and 0.2% to 3.9% in January 2018. Nevertheless, while near term global growth prospects remains broa