Agenda Item #10 (PDF)

5 downloads 231 Views 10MB Size Report
Mar 7, 2016 - Light Rail will attract jobs and spur long-term economic development ... jobs in Durham County and Orange
118

Item Overview Business Meeting – 03/07/2016 Agenda # 10 Subject: Update: GoTriangle Regional Transit. Staff: Mary Jane Nirdlinger, Executive Director Brian Litchfield, Director David Bonk, Long Range and Transportation Planner

Department: Planning and Sustainability Transit Planning and Sustainability

Overview: Jeff Mann, Executive Director of GoTriangle, will provide the Town Council with a presentation on various regional transit projects, including implementation of the DurhamOrange light rail corridor and expansion of regional and local transit services. Recommendation That the Council receive the presentation from GoTriangle Key Issues  Next steps in the implementation of the Durham-Orange light rail corridor.  Use of the Orange County ½ cent sales tax and vehicle registration fee for expanded local and regional bus service. Fiscal Impact/Resources: Implementation of the Durham-Orange light rail corridor and expansion of regional and local transit service is supported by ½ cent sales tax and vehicle registration fee within Orange County. Council Goals: ☐

Create a Place for Everyone



Develop Good Places, New Spaces



Support Community Prosperity



Nurture Our Community



Facilitate Getting Around



Grow Town and Gown Collaboration

Attachments:  GoTriangle Materials

119

Agenda Packet Items for March 7, 2016 Chapel Hill Town Council Presentation by GoTriangle Included Background Materials • • • • • •

Feb 15, 2016 Press Release announcing completion of the Final Environmental Impact Statement/ Record of Decision (FEIS/ROD) from Federal Transit Administration 2013 & 2014 Annual Reports for Orange County Bus and Rail Investment Plan Local funding letters for Chapel Hill Transit from GoTriangle General Manager, 2013-2015 Economic Impact Study (Executive Summary) for Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit (D-O LRT) project conducted by Development Planning and Financing Group, Inc. Maps of all bus service improvements in Orange County completed since passage of the transit vote in 2012 Analysis of “Dual-Use” proposal for D-O LRT made by Regional Transportation Alliance and Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce

120

D-O LRT Project Reaches an Important Milestone On Thursday, February 11, 2016, the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) signed the combined Final Environmental Impact Statement/Record of Decision (FEIS/ROD) for the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit (D-O LRT) Project. This marks a very important milestone in the life of the project, as it concludes the environmental review phase under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The primary purpose of the combined FEIS/ROD is to respond to substantive comments received during the public comment period. Responses are in the form of factual corrections, clarifications, and references to sections of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) or DEIS errata where issues raised are addressed. The ROD states the decision of the FTA, identifies the alternatives considered in reaching the decision, and states the means to avoid, minimize, or mitigate impacts. Mitigation plans, including any enforcement and monitoring commitments, are included in the ROD. The combined FEIS/ROD, including the appendices, is now available for public review on the D-O LRT Project website: http://ourtransitfuture.com/projects/durham-orange/feis-rod/ and on the GoTriangle website: http://gotriangle.org/feis-rod. It will be published in the Federal Register later this month. The proposed D-O LRT Project consists of a 17-mile light rail project (with 17 stations and a Rail Operations Maintenance Facility or ROMF) extending from southwest Chapel Hill to eastern Durham that would serve several educational, medical, and other key activity centers. Quick Guide What is a combined FEIS/ROD? FEIS stands for Final Environmental Impact Statement. It is a document required for major projects that use federal funding. A ROD is a Record of Decision; this document states the final decision of the lead federal agency about the project and explains the mitigation commitments made by the agencies. Why is this such an important step? The D-O LRT Project is one of the first transit projects in the nation to complete the environmental review process within the accelerated two-year timeframe established under recent changes to federal transportation law. What does that mean? It indicates that the FTA found that the D-O LRT Project met all applicable NEPA requirements. What does this mean for me? If you provided a substantive comment on the DEIS, a response to your comment is included in the FEIS. What does this mean for the D-O LRT Project going forward? GoTriangle begins engineering work to advance project design.

121

Where can I find out more information? To learn more about the D-O LRT Project, visit the project page at: http://ourtransitfuture.com/feisrod/. -EndNatalie Murdock Interim Manager of Communications and Public Affairs GoTriangle | GoDurham P.O. Box 13787 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 O: 919-485-7569 C: 336-207-0360 Office Location: 4600 Emperor Blvd, Suite 100, Durham, NC 27703

122

Chapel Hill Transit North Corridor Alternatives Analysis Study Chapel Hill Transit North South Corridor Alternatives Analysis Study is the first step in the federal process that will allow CHT to compete for federal funds to build an enhanced transit service project within the corridor. The Alternatives Analysis will examine a variety of public transportation options and alignments and conclude with the identification of a Locally Preferred Alternative (LPA) for the corridor. The study will review the transportation corridor from the Eubanks Road Park and Ride to the Southern Village Park and Ride. The study is scheduled to begin in October 2013. The anticipated study timeline is 15-18 months. The study will expand on previous work to identify and evaluate multiple alignments for the corridor and a broad range of service delivery options in order to recommend an LPA that:

Durham-Orange Light Rail Project: Planning work continues on the proposed 17-mile Durham/ Orange Light Rail Transit Project that would connect East Durham, through downtown Durham to Chapel Hill and UNC Hospital. Triangle Transit is working closely with area stakeholders and regional partners to identify and resolve issues as they work to complete an intensive environmental study of the proposed corridor. Work on the light rail has been funded by Triangle Transit’s Major Transportation Investment Fund. Beginning in July 2013, additional work on the project

Financial Summary In November 2011 and November 2012, voters in Durham County and Orange County passed separate referenda that allowed each county to levy a ½-cent sales tax to fund the Durham and Orange County Bus and Rail Investment Plan (D-O Transit Plans). During the past fiscal year (July 2012 through June 2013), the new transit tax was in effect for three months from April 2013 through June 2013. The D-O Transit Plan is also funded through a portion of the current Regional Vehicle Rental Tax. Triangle Transit anticipates receiving other new revenues for the D-O Transit Plan from additional funding sources including a $7 County Vehicle Registration Tax, a $3 Regional Vehicle Registration Tax increase, state and federal grants and customer fare payments.

• • • • • •

improves accessibility, frequency, connectivity, reliability, capacity, speed, and convenience; improves the level of service and increases ridership to the UNC campus/hospital and provides a necessary connection to the new campus at Carolina North; provides access and connection to the proposed UNC Light Rail Station; provides more accessible, safe, and comfortable stations/stops with pedestrian connections to activity centers in the corridor; supports future development within the corridor and provides benefits to existing neighborhoods, including low income and minority populations; and generates wide public and stakeholder support and encourages partnerships among agencies, businesses and organizations in the corridor.

will be funded by the new revenue streams identified in the Transit Plan. Construction could begin by 2021 with operations underway in 2026.

Hillsborough Amtrak Station: Additional work on the station awaits the result of rail corridor capacity analysis to be performed by Triangle Transit, North Carolina Railroad, and Norfolk Southern. Planning work should begin later this fall and is targeted to be completed within three to four months.

April – June 2013 Revenue

Sales Tax Durham County $3,711,255.68 Orange County $989,102.51 Regional Vehicle Rental Tax Durham County $252,347.00 Orange County $123,125.00

123

Goals of the Orange County Transit Plan The goals of the Transit Plan are to: • Improve overall mobility and transportation options in the region • Support local land use and development plans

Milestones

• Provide positive impacts on air quality • Provide geographic equity • Support improved capital facilities

Strategies to accomplish these goals include: 1. New bus services locally, throughout the county, and across the region that: • Improve connectivity

June 2012 Orange County Board of County Commissioners authorize public referendum on half-cent sales tax increase to fund transit improvements

October 2012 Approval of the Implementation Agreement

• Increase frequency in peak hours • Improve weekend, night services (off peak) • Enhance existing services • Maintain existing services

November 2012

• Maintain level of local funding at no less than

Citizens of Orange County vote in favor of a half-cent sales tax increase to support increased investment in transit

the August1, 2009 spending level; 2. An Amtrak Train Station in Town of Hillsborough 3. Enhanced bus service on MLK Blvd. in Chapel Hill 4. A 17 mile Light Rail connection from Chapel Hill to Durham.

All of the proposed transit improvements found in the Transit Plan require new revenue. The Orange County Board of County Commissioners authorized a referendum on a half-cent cent sales tax increase and an increase to the vehicle registration fee to help pay for these transit improvements. To the right are a series of milestones that have been achieved that help advance the implementation of the Transit Plan.

December 2012 Orange County Commission authorize a seven dollar increase in vehicle registration fee and 1/2¢ sales tax to support increased investment in transit

April 2013 One half-cent sales tax is implemented in Orange County

July 2013 Seven dollar vehicle registration fee was implemented

Accountability

Next Steps

Each December, Triangle Transit will communicate to Orange County and the Chapel Hill Transit Partners how much money will be available for bus service expansions in the upcoming year. If the amounts are not consistent with the adopted Plan, Triangle Transit will explain why. Then, Orange County, the Chapel Hill Transit Partners, and Triangle Transit will each identify which bus services from the Transit Plan will be paid for with the available money. Triangle Transit’s Board of Trustees is responsible for making sure that the services funded with the ½-cent sales tax and the vehicle registration fees are consistent with State law, local agreements, and the County Plan.

The following services will be implemented in the upcoming fiscal year (July 2013 through June 2014): • More frequent weekday service between Streets at Southpoint park-and-ride and UNC-Chapel Hill on Triangle Transit Route 800 (August 2013) • Later weekday service on Chapel Hill Transit routes CM, CW, D, F, and J (August 2013) • Improved Saturday service on Chapel Hill Transit routes CM, CW, and JN (August 2013)

Orange County Annual Programming of Bus Service Expansions

Once reviewed and approved by Triangle Transit, the County and the Chapel Hill Transit Partners can budget for and implement the planned services.

Upcoming Bus Service Expansions

Orange County and Triangle Transit are also working cooperatively to refine a bus service expansion program for central and northern Orange County to meet growing needs for local and regional transit travel. This program of services is expected to be completed by December 2013. The schedule for service expansions will be determined through this process. Over the upcoming five years, Chapel Hill Transit, Orange Public Transportation, and Triangle Transit will implement new or expanded bus services. Residents will also see new bus shelters, park-and-ride lots and sidewalk connections to bus stops.

124

In 2012, voters approved a local sales tax to support funding for the Orange County Bus and Rail Investment Plan (Transit Plan). This annual progress report highlights the goals, accomplishments, projects and finances of the Transit Plan during Fiscal Year 2014.

FY2014

ORANGE COUNTY Bus & Rail Investment Progress Report *This Progress Report covers July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014

125

The long range goals of the Transit Plan are to: • Improve overall mobility and transportation options in the region • Provide geographic equity • Support improved capital facilities • Support transit supportive land use • Provide positive impact on air quality

Accomplishments During the year, the following service enhancements were made by Chapel Hill Transit (CHT), Orange Public Transportation (OPT) and Triangle Transit: Chapel Hill Transit added year-round evening and night service on: CM Route CW Route D Route J Route Chapel Hill Transit added two additional evening trips on F Route Additional Saturday service was added to CM, CW and JN Routes (not pictured) Triangle Transit added more frequent weekday service between the Streets at Southpoint Park-and-Ride and UNC Chapel Hill on Route 800

D

Library F

Orange County and Triangle Transit staff held four workshops in Cedar Grove, Efland, Hillsborough and Mebane and received public comments on preliminary concepts for future bus expansion in central and rural Orange County

F

University Mall 15

Carr Mill Mall CW

CM

UNC Chapel Hill

J

CM

54

D

Southern Village

800

et

e Str To

int

po

uth

o tS sa

126

A

A

B

B

The charts show revenues and expenses for the Orange Bus and Rail

Investment Plan for FY14. The revenues to fund the Transit Plan include a one-half cent sales tax, a $7 County Vehicle Registration Tax and the

$6,989,796

$24,113,171

C

C

Regional Vehicle Rental Tax. Expenditures include bus services, light rail project development and administration.

Orange County Expenditures

Orange County Revenues**

A

A

B

B

$2,593,163

$7,601,790

C

C

Administration

A

$54,848

Bus Services*

B

$530,100

Light Rail Development

C

$2,008,215

$7 Vehicle Registration Fee

A

$565,560

Rental Car Taxes

B

$476,437

Sales Tax

C

$6,559,793

*During FY14, bus expenditures totaled $353,400 for CHT and $176,700 for Triangle Transit. In FY15, 64% of bus service expenditures will go to CHT, 12% to OPT and 24% to Triangle Transit. ** FY14 revenue shown excludes interest on investments of $4,551; FY 14 Ending Reserves total $6,125,407 (FY13 $1,112,229; FY14 $5,013,178). These reserves will be used for services and capital projects identified in the “Next Steps” section of this report.

127

Next Steps

The following services will be implemented in the upcoming fiscal year (July 2014 through June 2015): • Chapel Hill Transit will add additional morning service along the A, D and J routes; additional mid-day service on the NS route and additional Saturday service on the D and FG routes • Orange County will provide expanded service in rural portions of the county; additional senior center shuttle options; two fixed routes connecting Mebane, Efland and Hillsborough; more service on the Hillsborough to Chapel Hill midday shuttle; and continuation of the Hillsborough Circulator service in the spring of 2015 • New express service by Triangle Transit between Hillsborough, Duke University, and downtown Durham with an extension to Mebane and Efland • Later Saturday evening and Sunday service on Triangle Transit routes between Durham, Chapel Hill and RTP, connecting with Route 100 to RDU Airport and Raleigh Over the next five years, Chapel Hill Transit, Orange Public Transportation and Triangle Transit will implement new or expanded bus services. Residents will also see new bus shelters, Park-andRide lots, and sidewalk connections to bus stops. Chapel Hill North-South Bus Project Chapel Hill Transit is conducting the North South Corridor Study along the Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard – South Columbia – US 15-501 South Corridor. The study is funded by a federal grant which is not part of the OCBRIP plan. The OCBRIP plan does include funding set aside for capital improvements, if this project moves to construction in the future. During 2014, a Public Involvement Plan, Purpose and

Need Statement and Tier 1 Analysis were completed. No Build, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Low and BRT High

transit modes passed Tier 1 Analysis and moved into the Detailed Definition of Alternatives phase. CHT

Hillsborough Amtrak Station Work on the station awaits a rail corridor capacity analysis to be performed by the North Carolina Railroad Company, Norfolk Southern and Triangle Transit. Planning work will begin after the analysis is complete. Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit Project In February, the Federal Transit Administration approved Triangle Transit’s request to enter Project Development on the proposed 17-mile DurhamOrange Light Rail Transit Project. Environmental work is underway with a Draft Environmental Impact Statement to be published and available for public comment in spring 2015. The proposed light rail line will run from Chapel Hill to Durham and cost an estimated $1.34 billion (in 2012 dollars). The Orange portion of the voter-approved one-half cent sales tax will help fund the local share of the rail project.

held three public meetings in March 2014 and will continue to share the study with the public and collect feedback.

Triangle Transit P.O. Box 13787 | Research Triangle Park, 27709 | 919.485.RIDE

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

136

Consideration of Economic Development Potential: Light Rail Transit in Durham and Orange Counties, North Carolina

William L. Bishop Lucy L. Gallo Development Planning & Financing Group, Inc.

April 2015

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1

137

Executive summary for “Consideration of Economic Development Potential: Light Rail Transit in Durham and Orange Counties, North Carolina” Construction of the proposed 17.1 mile Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit Project (D-O LRT) will spark the economies of the 16-county Research Triangle Region and benefit the entire state. The D-O LRT will connect major regional activity centers such as UNC Hospital, Duke University, Duke and Durham VA Medical Centers, and downtown Durham. This 17-station transit line will spur the type of new development sought after by a young, highly educated and economically competitive workforce and attract the businesses looking for these types of workers that will help the region compete for decades to come. Light Rail will attract jobs and spur long-term economic development The economic impact of the project will be substantial. When completed, the new development in the rail station areas will: • • • • •

Support almost 20,000 new jobs within the rail station areas in Durham and Orange Counties Result in 10,000 additional jobs outside the rail station areas within the two counties Add $4.7 billion of economic output each year in Durham County and Orange County alone, with more than $600 million of additional economic output statewide Add several thousand additional jobs in the other 14 counties that comprise the Research Triangle, plus 1,400 more jobs in the State’s other 84 counties Provide more than $175 million in tax revenue per year to the towns, cities, counties, and State to help financially support essential public services.

Building Light Rail will create jobs The economic benefits have already begun. As construction of the LRT system officially begins and private development continues in the rail station areas, jobs will be created: • • •

D-O LRT construction will require on average more than 750 workers each year for 10 years. Construction of nearby office and retail buildings will take about 23 years, and will result in more than 530 jobs for workers each year on average Construction of residential buildings in rail station areas will take about 10 years, resulting in about 740 jobs each year.

Moreover, the resulting compact, transit-oriented neighborhoods will also bring significant cost savings for local government. New urban development requires expanding basic urban services such as road construction and maintenance, fire and police protection, and garbage pickup. Car-dependent, highwaycentric development requires municipalities to maintain new roads and expand emergency and other services to new geographic areas, increasing the cost of basic services. More geographically compact development focused around rail stations reduces these costs (Litman 2015). Steering growth into these

2

138

rail station areas will allow Durham and Chapel Hill to spend less money on municipal services than if growth were to continue solely in an automobile-oriented fashion. ====== Smart investments in transportation infrastructure also can have outsized impacts on economic development by leveraging large amounts of private investment. Not all types of transportation investments have the same economic impact. In regions with extensive roadway networks, the most productive transportation investments are those that create new types of transportation systems. These enable novel economic development opportunities that cannot be accommodated elsewhere in the region. Much like the regional partnership that brought the wildly successful and transformative Research Triangle Park (RTP) into existence 57 years ago, the D-O LRT Project can catalyze the region’s economic growth by enabling economic development that meets the growing national demand for compact, pedestrian-friendly, and amenity-filled neighborhoods and help the region continue to attract a highly skilled workforce. With the implementation of D-O LRT, the region will be well equipped to meet the needs of those businesses and people searching for the lifestyle and economic benefits of living in higher-density neighborhoods.It will not shut the door on other types of development, however. There will continue to be ample supply throughout the region of high-quality, low-density suburban land development of the type that has occurred in the Research Triangle from the 1950’s through the early 2000s. To quantify the economic benefits of the D-O LRT Project, we have prepared an economic impact analysis that analyzes the fiscal impact of the construction of the Project and the retail, commercial, and other development that would take place around the D-O LRT stations. As the table below indicates, the development in rail station areas made possible by D-O LRT would account for more than 30,000 new jobs in Durham County and Orange County and more than $175 million in annual tax revenue statewide. The economic analysis uses industry-standard modeling techniques to determine the fiscal impact of five phases of the D-O LRT Project. The five phases include: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Construction of the D-O LRT Project (through 2026) Construction of buildings in rail station areas containing offices and retail, from approximately 2020 through 2043 Construction of residential buildings in rail station areas, from approximately 2022 to 2031 Operation of the D-O LRT system (beginning in 2026) Ongoing operations of businesses within the rail station areas (beginning in approximately 2023 and fully built out by 2043)

An overview of the impacts of the construction of the project, its operation, and the financial impact of the private development at full build-out is included below:

3

139

D-O LRT Economic Output Impact Cumulative Impact (over entire period)

Total Increase in Economic Output over baseline

D-O LRT construction

Commercial construction

Residential construction

Durham-Orange

From 2015 to 2026 (11 years) $1.30 billion

Approximately 2020 to 2043 (23 years) $1.72 billion

Approximately 2022 to 2031 (10 years) $1.07 billion

Triange Region

$1.30 billion

$1.98 billion

$1.23 billion

Statewide

$1.80 billion

$2.21 billion

$1.35 billion

Annual Impact (each year) D-O LRT operating

Annual Increase in Durham-Orange Economic Output Triange Region Statewide over baseline

From 2026 continuing $0.17 billion $0.23 billion $0.23 billion

Commercial when fully built-out From 2043 continuing $4.73 billion $5.19 billion $5.36 billion

The job impacts of the different phases of the economic impact of the D-O LRT project are divided into three categories: 1. Direct jobs: Jobs directly involved with the project. For the D-O LRT construction period, these are jobs working on building the project itself. This also includes jobs in those commercial establishments that are located in the developments in rail station areas built because of the DO LRT Project. 2. Indirect jobs: Jobs in other industries that are created because of demand from the jobs in the direct industry. For example, a printing business located in a new building near a light-rail station might need to purchase ink from a local supplier, paper from another supplier, and legal services from a local law firm. The jobs created to support this additional demand are indirect jobs. 3. Induced jobs: These are jobs that accrue from spending of the increased income resulting from the direct and indirect jobs in the area. As an example, people working within the new commercial buildings will purchase food, clothing, and personal items from local businesses throughout the region and the State. Jobs created to meet this employee demand are induced jobs. Revenue impacts are determined statewide. The tax implications have been adjusted on the assumption that construction materials purchased for the DO-LRT project will be exempt from State and local option sales taxes. In addition, some of the construction spending such as for light-rail vehicles is not included 4

140

in the revenue projections, since that money is assumed to be spent outside the region where these items are manufactured.

D-O LRT Jobs and Revenue Impact

Annual Jobs Durham County & Orange County

Annual Revenue State of North Carolina

D-O LRT construction

Commercial construction

Residential construction

D-O LRT operating

Commercial

From 2015 to 2026

Approximately 2020 to 2043

Approximately 2022 to 2031

From 2026 continuing

From 2043 continuing

Direct

579

424

379

235

19,930

Indirect

159

56

283

9

6,295

Induced

108

58

81

26

4,260

TOTAL JOBS

846

538

743

270

30,485

Sales Tax

$1,258,333

$1,152,174

$1,570,000

n/a

$74,800,000

Propety Tax

$1,100,000

$747,826

$1,020,000

n/a

$48,600,000

Income Tax TOTAL REVENUE1

ongoing2

$825,000

$460,870

$670,000

n/a

$29,800,000

$3,708,333

$2,660,870

$3,590,000

n/a

$175,600,000

1

Total revenue includes other tax revenue, including corporate profits tax and other taxes, associated with station area development.

2

Jobs and tax revenue would be produced at lower levels prior to this date, which reflects projected date of rail-station area build-out.

Details of the assumptions used in the economic impact analysis are available in the full report. Overall, the proposed investment in light-rail can be expected to unlock the full potential of the rail station areas in Chapel Hill and Durham, providing a substantial economic boost and helping to keep the region competitive for the high-wage, high-skilled jobs in the coming decades. Construction of the lightrail system alone will bring this region more than a thousand jobs for a decade, and when completed, the light-rail system will help support tens of thousands of jobs and many millions of dollars of new tax revenue.

5

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

149

Analysis of “Dual-Use” Proposal by RTA for Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit Project Prepared by GoTriangle Staff February 29, 2016 Background: On February 10, 2016, the Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce sent a letter to Jeff Mann, General Manager of GoTriangle, asking the agency to explore a question previously raised by the Regional Transportation Alliance ­­ whether the Durham Orange Light Rail Transit (D-O LRT) project could be modified to also permit buses to operate on some or all of its segments as a type of Bus Rapid Transit service, with a particular interest in serving trips between Chatham County/Chapel Hill/Carrboro and the Research Triangle Park (RTP)/Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU) area and points further east. GoTriangle visited with Chamber staff and board members on February 19, 2016 to learn more about their interest in this concept, and has drafted this memo as a response. Summary: The “Dual Use (DU)” proposal for the D-O LRT corridor raised by the Regional Transportation Alliance (RTA) presents a number of challenges, including the lack of a compelling business case- when travel markets are considered. The travel market served by D-O LRT is roughly 10 times larger than the market the DU proposal seeks to address. With this being the case, modifying a project like D-O LRT to serve such a comparatively smaller travel market would hurt regional mobility far more than it would help. The DU proposal also has numerous operational, engineering, safety, and service planning challenges. Attempting to introduce a DU concept on a maturing project design, that recently received environmental clearance from the Federal Transit Administration -- would add significant project cost increases and schedule delays of several years to D-O LRT. Recommendation: Given these conditions, GoTriangle recommends: •

Discontinuing further exploration of the DU concept for the D-O LRT project



Addressing the mobility concerns for the travel market described in the DU proposal outside of the scope of the D-O LRT project, and beginning those discussions in calendar year 2016.

GoTriangle would be glad to convene a meeting of stakeholders with an interest in the NC 54 corridor, including NCDOT, DCHC-MPO, the Town of Chapel Hill, the City of Durham, transit providers, major institutions, and business and community groups to discuss what opportunities there may be to address the travel market described in the DU proposal. The remainder of this document details the challenges described above in greater detail.

150 Business Case Challenges – Not A Significant Market for Transit in DU Proposal: •

31,983 commuters – Travel Market Size of core market for D-O LRT corridor Durham Chapel Hill o

There are almost 32,000 daily commuters moving through the D-O LRT corridor each day from Durham and Orange Counties in both directions, to employment centers in Chapel Hill and the City of Durham.



3,213 commuters – Travel Market Size in the DU Proposal Chatham/CH/Carrboro RTP o The DU proposal seeks to serve trips that start in Chatham County and Chapel Hill/Carrboro and end in RTP (and points further east) via the NC 54 and I-40 corridors. Analysis of Census and employer data indicates that there are just over 3,200 daily commuters making this trip to RTP. With very few residents commuting from RTP due to the lack of housing, and no significant employment base in Chatham County at this time, there is no functional reverse commute market.



DU proposal seeks benefits for Orange/Chatham commuters bound for RTP, RDU, Wake o Only 7% of Orange County residents commute to Wake County for work (2010 Census) o Only 13% of Chatham County residents commute to Wake County for work (2013 ACS); many use US 64 to cross Jordan Lake and do not enter the NC 54 corridor o The physical layout of RTP (low-density, not walkable, no mixed use) further limits the number of transit passengers that can be attracted from this smaller market

Service Planning Challenges: •

• •

Greatest congestion on NC 54 exists between Barbee Chapel Rd and I-40. However, the D-O LRT alignment travels away from I-40 to the northwest after passing Barbee Chapel Rd and Woodmont station; DU buses would still have to backtrack on local roads to reach I-40. No buses run on Mason Farm Rd today, limited congestion on Mason Farm Rd, no infrastructure need Continued need for bus service on NC 54 to Student Union/Fetzer Gym area for local service

Financial Challenges: •





All LRT tracks from UNC Hospital to I-40 are ballasted (rock) or direct fixation elevated track. None can accommodate rubber tire vehicles. Embedded track adds significant operational costs (harder to maintain), increases capital costs, and would require wider track centers or a wider right-of-way to accommodate bus operations without blocking the corridor in both directions All trains move through line with time precision. Introducing buses from mixed traffic means unpredictable entries at rush hour and a significantly more complicated signal system, for an unknown additional cost Accommodating buses on elevated structures raises several issues: o Increased materials cost of a deeper deck on the bridge to allow for track embedding o Wider bridge structures would almost certainly be required to allow buses and trains to safely operate

151 Side barriers would be required to protect buses from driving off the structures Increased cost of structural components of bridge, if not total redesign, to support increased weight of deeper deck o Increased emergency access facilities to accommodate emergency access and towing of rubber-tired vehicles Additional right-of-way acquisitions and related cost for all non-elevated sections due to wider alignment No identified revenue stream for transit investment in Chatham County o o

• •

Safety Challenges: •

• • •



DU proposal eliminates safety benefits of automatic train protection, which can control LRT speeds and maintain safe separation between trains in LRT-only operations. Relying on manual operation of trains requires reduced LRT speeds. The Seattle transit tunnel, which has LRT and bus movements, limits LRT speed to 15 mph in stations, 30 mph between stations; D-O LRT planned to run at up to 55 mph and dual use would compromise that speed Required reduction of LRT vehicle speeds would increase each passenger’s trip time and reduce ridership No ability for train to pass bus, or vice versa Disabled train can be towed/pushed out of the way by a working train, but a disabled bus can only be removed from the right-of-way by a tow truck; this means engine failure on one bus = line shutdown for all other buses and trains Hard to establish that only transit vehicles (heavy vehicles, trained drivers) enter guideway and not car drivers (less heavy, inexperienced) who are unfamiliar with signal system. NCRR opposed BRT in Downtown Durham near their alignment for this reason.

Operational Challenges: • •





Snow/ice clearance issues on elevated segments for bus; trains can sweep their own tracks Buses traveling west on NC 54 from I-40 would either cross over one direction of LRT traffic to enter the elevated section or, if the entry point is further west, would need to cross eastbound vehicle traffic to enter the fixed guideway. Both maneuvers would cost time, require additional signals or flyovers at what are currently unsignalized segments of NC 54, and cost more to build. Doors of all current GoTriangle and Chapel Hill Transit buses are on the right. All stations in DO LRT alignment in Orange County board through left side doors using center platforms. Both agencies would need to buy new rolling stock to use stations; buses with doors on both sides reduce seating for all passengers and create ADA capacity issues for buses since one of the wheelchair positions would be lost to accommodate doors. Adding one bus between every two trains would double the gate closure rate of every at-grade crossing (such as at Downing Creek Pkwy or Friday Center Drive) without adding significant transit passenger capacity; further elevating alignment to eliminate this issue along NC 54 corridor likely adds tens of millions of dollars in cost.

Schedule/Regulatory Challenges: •

Federal Transit Administration would likely find that we have a different project serving a different travel market, which would remove us from the New Starts program.

152 o o

Orange/Chatham > RTP/RDU > Wake County is a different corridor Purpose & Need of D-O LRT:  To improve mobility in between Durham and Chapel Hill  To foster growth, compact development, and economic development along high capacity transit network  To provide competitive and reliable alternative to congested roadways

Comparing Travel Markets: Chatham/Chapel Hill/Carrboro to RTP vs Durham and Chapel Hill (Durham County & Orange County) Today, there are 10 workers who commute between Durham County and Orange County for each worker who commutes from Orange or Chatham Counties to Research Triangle Park (RTP).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (2009-13), Longitudinal EmployerHousehold Dynamics (2013) Travel market today According to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, there are 27,639 people in Chatham who commute for work (out of 64,886 total population). Only 4% of those people commute to RTP for work. • • ● ●

12,285 (44%) commute within Chatham County 4,751 (17%) commute to Orange County 3,761 (14%) commute to Wake County 2,848 (10%) commute to Durham County ● 1,111 (4%) commute to RTP (Durham and Wake Counties)

153 By contrast, the travel market between Durham County and Orange County is much larger • 14,377 people commute from Durham County to Orange County • 17,606 people commute from Orange County to Durham County. In addition, there are many people who live and work in the same county. There are 92,293 people who live in Durham County and commute to jobs in the same county; some of these workers may take commute trips along the D-O LRT alignment, such as Patterson Place to Downtown Durham. Likewise, 37,077 Orange County residents commute to jobs within Orange County; this encompasses commutes such as Meadowmont to UNC Hospital. UNC travel market The majority of UNC employees commute from Chapel Hill and the City of Durham. Except for Carrboro, which contributes about 10% of UNC employees, no other municipality shows substantial travel flows into the university campus. Pittsboro contributes a little less than 5% of UNC’s employees; Siler City (not shown on the chart), Chatham County’s largest municipality, contributes less than 1%.

Source: UNC 2013 Commuter Survey. Municipalities with smaller numbers of commuters to UNC are omitted.

154 Travel market in 2035 The state demographer prepares county-level population projections that other state agencies rely on for preparing future plans, including our region’s adopted transportation plans. According to the state demographer, the population of Chatham County is expected to increase to 92,418 people by 2035, reflecting 27,532 new residents. By contrast, Durham County is expected to grow to 408,936 residents in 2035 (up from 276,494, or 47.9%). While this pace of growth is comparable to Chatham County’s, Durham’s population is much larger so the number of new residents is substantially larger – 132,442 new residents. Orange County is expected have 174,888 residents in 2035 (up from 136,058, or 28.5%). While the pace of growth is slower, the increase of 38,831 residents is still larger than the Chatham County increase of 27,532. Applying this growth to future job commute patterns, the number of people commuting between Durham and Orange Counties will continue to substantially exceed the number commuting from Orange County or Chatham County to RTP.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (2009-13), Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (2013); North Carolina Office of Budget and Management, State Demographics branch.