ARTICLES

Administrative Depertment of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

ARTICLES CONTENTS  The Azerbaijan Republic 25 years on // Visions of Azerbaijan.-2016.-Autumn.-p.1620.  Abdlhak, Yasmeen. Three years in Azerbaijan… // Azernews.-2016.-May 20.-№ 38.-P. 6.  Nazarli, Amina. Heydar Aliyev, a wise leader and genius builder of modern Azerbaijan // Azernews.-2016.-May 11.-№35.- p.2.  Mikayilova, Sevil. Azerbaijan ensures its stability under most difficult conditions // Azernews.- 2015.-May 28.- No. 40.- p.2.  Rajabova, Sara. Ilham Aliyev, farsighted leader of the nation // Azernews.-2014.December 24.-No. 99.-p. 2.  Rajabova, Sara. Heydar Aliyev, hero and national legend // Azernews.-2014.-December 12.-No. 96.-p. 1-2.  Shukurov, Karim. The demography of independence (1991-2011) // Visions of Azerbaijan.-2011.-September-October.-p.24-26.  Garayev, Abulfas. All initiatives of the government of Azerbaijan serve to the promotion of cultural understanding and dialogue among civilizations // Mədəniyyət.2011.-6 aprel.-№23.-S.8.  Islamov, Tural. Parliamentary Azerbaijan a brief history // Visions of Azerbaijan.-2010.November-December.-p.18-23.  Allahverdiev, Kenan. Azerbaijan: ethnopolitical security in the first half of the 21st century // Central Asia and the Caucasus.-2010.-Volume 11.-Issue 2.-P.88-95.  Mammadyarov, Elmar. Walking a tightrope: Azerbaijan’s foreign policy strategy in a changing environment // Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.17-26.  Keeping energy options open: Azerbaijan has a key role to play in energy supply to Europe // First.-2009.-Autumn.-P.125-129.  Freitag-Wirminghaus, Rainer. Azerbaijan’s foreign and security policy // Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.103-116.  Nuriyev, Elkhan. Azerbaijan’s strategic role in the contemporary geopolitics of Eurasia // Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.73-81.  Inozemtsev, Vladislav. Big politics in small spaces: what are Azerbaijan’s prospects in the geopolitical arena? // Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.59-71.  Baran, Zeyno. Azerbaijan: realizing the vision // Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).S.125-136.  Оğuz, Cем. Azerbaijan in international focus // Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).S.137-141.  Azerbaijan at UNESCO // Culture.-2009.-№2.-S.208-213.  Our National Salvation day // Rabitə dünyası.-2008.-№ 18.-S.23.  Garibova, Jala. Academic quality assurance in Azerbaijan's higher education: implementation challenges // Azərbaycan məktəbi.-2008.-№4.-S.19-29.  Huseynov, Tabib. South caucasus: new paradigms for peace and development in the 21 st century // Diplomatiya aləmi .2008.-№18-19.-P.81-87.  Azerbaijan’s national parks by fiona maclachlan // Visions of Azerbaijan.-2008.Spring.-P.16-25.  Musayeva, Shahla. Globalization process and moral-ethical problems in Azerbaijan // Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№4.-P.26-30. 1


 Isakhanly, Hamlet. What is happening in the system of higher education in the modern world and how should // Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№5.-P.4-19.  Ismaylov, Chingiz. Organization of free economic zones in Azerbaijan: substantiation and specialization of territorial selection // Today & Tomorrow.Azerbaijan in Focus.2008.-№ 3(10) March.-P.63-66.  Taghiyev, A., Gassymova, K. Notes on development of the Azerbaijani musical culture // Today & Tomorrow.Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№ 3(10) March.-P.67-70.  Mamed-zade, Ilham. Azerbaijani way of modernization // Today & Tomorrow.Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№ 2(09) February.-P.4-10.  Abbasov, Ali. Azerbaijan: challenges of the modern world // Today & Tomorrow.Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№ 3(10) March.-P.12-23.  Proud to have been born in Azerbaijan // Visions of Azerbaijan.-2008.-№3.1.-P.14-21.  2003-2008: development and progress // Rabitə dünyası.-2008.-1 sentyabr.-№28.-S.2830.  Quliyev, Hasan., Bunyadov, Teymur. Life in Karabakh the late 19th and early 20th centuries // Visions of Azerbaijan.-2008.-№3.-S.42-52.  Muslim-zade, Dilara. The camparative analyses of understanding of a sivil society idea in Europe and Azerbaijan // Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2007.-№2.-P.4853.  Mamed-zade, Ilham. Ratings, prognostication and development variants // Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2007.-№6.-P.10-13.  Safarov, Nazim. Philanthropy: from social pity to corporate social responsibility // Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2007.-№6.-P.4-9.  Aghakishiyeva, Tahmina. Globalization, modernity and national mentality // Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2007.-№6.-P.14-16.  Safarov, Nazim. Geopolitics: simple schemes and complex reality // Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2007.-№2.-P.38-43.  Oil and gaz history // Нефть и газ Азербайджана.-2006.-№ 8.-P.4-7.

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The Azerbaijan Republic 25 years on On 18 October 2016 the people of Azerbaijan will be celebrating the 25th anniversary of their independence from the Soviet Union. A lot has happened since 1991. Azerbaijan has been put firmly on the map thanks to its booming energy sector, and for cultural achievements like hosting the 2015 European Games, Eurovision Song Contest, and even a European Grand Prix. However, due to a war with Armenia in the early 1990s, and the subsequent occupation, Azerbaijan’s journey since independence has been a bumpy one. Last year, during a trip to Baku, I took time to visit the cemetery and memorial at Martyrs’ Lane, formerly known as Kirov Park, on top of a hill overlooking the Caspian Sea. Today, the cemetery and memorial pays honour to those killed during the events of Black January in 1990. A visit to Martyrs’ Lane is always a sombre experience. To a complete stranger — indeed a foreigner — like myself, the faces of those killed engraved on the shiny black marble tablets personalize the sacrifices made. Martyrs’ Lane is a stark reminder that independence does not come easily. Sacrifices are made. In some cases families are shattered and lives end. The first glimpse of Azerbaijani self-determination appeared in 1988 when thousands of people could be seen protesting in Baku’s central square, now known as Freedom Square, against the central government in Moscow and Armenia’s designs on Nagorno-Karabakh. However, it was not until January 1990 that Azerbaijan’s independence movement came of age. The events of 19-20 January 1990 that later became known as Black January marked the pinnacle of Azerbaijan’s struggle for independence. During this time 26,000 Soviet troops stormed Baku by order of the Kremlin as part of a failed and bloody attempt to squash Azerbaijan’s peaceful independence movement. According to official estimates, somewhere between 131 and 170 civilians were killed, around 800 were injured, and five went missing, presumed dead. The violence was not limited to Baku, another two dozen peaceful protestors were also killed in the Lenkeran and Neftchala regions of Azerbaijan. This is why each year 20th January is commemorated as a day of national mourning. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev — who ordered the intervention — has admitted his mistake in dispatching the force to Baku. In 1995, he wrote: AS WITH MOST INDEPENDENCE STRUGGLES AROUND THE WORLD, THE SACRIFICE OF AZERBAIJANIS WAS GREAT The declaration of a State of Emergency in Baku was the biggest mistake of my political career. It is customary to pay one’s respects when visiting Martyrs’ Lane by placing red carnations on the memorials. I only had a dozen red carnations which was not enough to properly commemorate all those who made the ultimate sacrifice. As with most independence struggles round the world, the sacrifice of Azerbaijanis was great. In retrospect, the events of Black January merely marked the beginning of the end for Azerbaijan’s struggle for independence. It would not be for another 20 months until Azerbaijan formally declared independence from the disintegrating Soviet Union. However, this is not the first time that Azerbaijan has been independent. In May 1918 the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was declared during the collapse of the Russian Empire and the fallout of the First World War. This endeavour, while noble, lasted only two years until re government in Baku surrendered to the Bolsheviks’ 11th Army troops in April 1920. 3


THE CHALLENGES OF INDEPENDENCE As with any newly independent country, especially ne carrying the heavy burden of communism’s legacy, a newly independent Azerbaijan faced many challenges. During the first few years of independence the economy was a mess. The country was in a recession, unemployment was rampant, and hyperinflation was a serious problem. The transition from a centrally planned economy to a market-based one was no easy task. After great hardship the situation began to improve by the mid-1990s. The signing of the Contract of the Century (more on that later) was a pivotal point in the economic transition of post-Soviet Azerbaijan. Yet, it wasn’t until 2009 that the government declared an official end to Azerbaijan’s post-independence economic transition. Azerbaijan had an additional challenge during its early days of statehood. During the early days of independence any move to grow the economy, reform the country’s governing structures, or improve the wellbeing of the people was overshadowed by war. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan started before independence in 1988 when the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic made territorial claims on Soviet Azerbaijan’s Karabakh Autonomous Oblast. This action resulted in a bloody war which ended up with Armenian forces and Armenian-backed militias illegally occupying almost 20 per cent of the territory that the international community recognizes as part of Azerbaijan. These occupied areas include: the Nagorno-Karabakh region and all or part of Lachin, Kelbajar, Aghdam, Fuzuli, Jebrayil, Qubadli, and Zangelan rayons and are still occupied today. The war had a devastating effect on the country’s social fabric. Thousands of Azerbaijanis were killed and thousands more wounded. In addition, 875,000 more Azerbaijanis became displaced. Even though most of the Internally Displaced Peoples (TOP) are capable of working, they do not have permanent jobs and have to make their living on random incomes and meagre governmental allowances. While the government has done a lot to improve their welfare, the scale of the problem is immense. It is heartbreaking meeting with these IDPs. I’ve heard firsthand stories of families shattered and homes lost forever. With satellite imagery readily available on the internet, IDPs are now able to view their old homes — the houses they left behind because of the war — with new cars in the drive; presumably owned by the new Armenian occupants. A whole generation of Azerbaijanis will never know what home really is because of the Armenian occupation — they will only know the challenging life in an IDP settlement. In 1993, the UN Security Council adopted four resolutions on the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Each resolution confirmed the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan to include Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven surrounding districts and called for the withdrawal of all occupying Armenian forces from Azerbaijani territory. To this day these resolutions have not been implemented by Armenia. The waning parties signed a cease-fire agreement in 1994, and the conflict has been “frozen” since then. The Minsk Group, tasked with bringing a lasting end to the war, remains the recognized mediating body but in 20 years has produced no sign of a resolution to the conflict. Since August 2014, violence has increased noticeably along the Line of Contact between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. This violence reached a peak recently in April 2016. During four days of fighting dozens of Azerbaijani soldiers were killed but this sacrifice was not in vain. Approximately 800 hectares of previously occupied land was liberated. This modest liberation represents the biggest change in territory between the two warring sides since the 1994 ceasefire was agreed. Today, Armenia’s occupation of parts of Azerbaijan is no different from Russia’s illegal occupation of Crimea m Ukraine or its occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. A WEALTH OF RESOURCES

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War or no war, occupation or not, Azerbaijan is blessed with immense natural resources which should quickly form the backbone of the country’s economy and the nation’s post-Soviet recovery. While the country was dealing with the fallout from Armenia’s invasion a serious effort began to get Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources on the world market. At first no Western oil consortium was willing to take on the risk. Extracting the resources was one thing, getting them out of the region to the wider world was the mam problem. Finally, when Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire in May 1994, this created the stability needed in the region for foreign investment in the energy sector. Azerbaijan emerged on the world stage as a major energy power during the 1990s. In 1994, it signed the “Contract of the Century” agreement with BP and 10 other international oil companies to open up the country’s vast resources in the Caspian Sea. Since 1994, Azerbaijan’s GDP has increased 16 times. It is worth pointing out that the benefits of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas sector transcends the whole economy: even the non-oil sector of the economy has increased tenfold since 1994. The deal approved a $7.4 billion investment over 30 years in three offshore fields: Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli. The Contract of the Century celebrated its 20th year anniversary in 2014, and in many ways marked a new historical era for Azerbaijan. This agreement was the foundation for Azerbaijan to sign 26 other contracts that encompass 19 countries and 41 other oil companies. As of 2014 SOCAR estimates that since the Contract of the Century, roughly $50 billion has been invested in the Azerbaijani petroleum industry and that efficient marketing practices added cumulative additional revenues of $1.1 billion for Azerbaijan during 2008-2013. Put simply, the Contract of the Century was game changing for Azerbaijan. Another milestone in Azerbaijan’s emergence as a key energy player occurred in 2005 when the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline pumped its first oil to the Mediterranean Sea. This crucial pipeline was later joined by the South Caucasus Pipeline and the modernized Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway. Other pipelines are in the works too. In March 2015, construction started on the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, further linking Azerbaijan to Turkey and the outside world. Construction is expected to be finished by 2018. Azerbaijan has also taken advantage of being the only country in the world to border both Russia and Iran, making it a crucial part of the International North-South Transport Corridor. This transit corridor is expected to compete with the Suez Canal by reducing transit costs between Russia in the north and India m the south and everything in between. 25 years ago, the idea that Azerbaijan would become one of the most important countries on the Eurasian continent in terms of energy transit and regional trade would have been unbelievable. Today, it is a reality. As always in Azerbaijan tensions with Armenia are never far away. At their closest points the BTC pipeline and the South Caucasus Pipeline ran within about 18 kilometres of the Line of Contact between Armenian-occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani forces. After a rough few years of independence that featured war, occupation and hardship, the Contract of the Century and the BTC pipeline placed Azerbaijan firmly on the map and was a much needed boost of national confidence. A GLOBAL PLAYER Today, Azerbaijan has come a long way since those early and uncertain days of a new republic. It is a regional economic leader in the South Caucasus and an important economic actor in the Caspian region. Azerbaijan has been admitted to nearly all major international institutions, including to the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Islamic Development Bank, and Asian Development Bank. Globally, Azerbaijan is trying to keep a balance in its relations with the West and Russia. Regionally, Azerbaijan has sought to keep a balance between Russia and Iran while striving to preserve its autonomy or independence as much as possible. Over the years Azerbaijan has developed a good relationship with the US — a relationship which dates back to its first independence in 1918. Azerbaijan was a staunch ally during the Iraq and 5


Afghanistan campaigns, and Baku has contributed greatly to US counterterrorism efforts since 9/11. Azerbaijan is part of NATO’s Partnership for Peace program and participates in Alliance training exercises and officer exchanges. Although it is not actively seeking to join NATO, it participates in NATO-led missions and has close relations with other NATO members and partners, including Turkey and Georgia. Ties between Azerbaijan and Europe have also been growing over the past 25 years. The official relationship it has with the European Union began with the signing of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PC A) on 22 April, 1996. This agreement is a basic statement regarding cooperation m human rights, political dialogue, trade, investment, and other areas. Since the 1990s there have been increasingly closer relations. Azerbaijan established a Permanent Mission to the EU in 2000, and became the 43rd member state of the Council of Europe in 2001. The country has been a European Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership member since 2009. Many in Azerbaijan understand the economic implications from close cooperation with the EU. In economic development, EU members have invested billions of dollars in Azerbaijan, and the EU is Azerbaijan’s largest export/import market. If correct policies are pursued, Azerbaijan will serve as an important alternative source of energy for Europe well into the future. Azerbaijan has come a long way since 1991 and its people have a lot to be proud of. Notwithstanding its location in a turbulent region Azerbaijan has a bright future ahead of it. Outside observers of Azerbaijan must be aware of one important point: everything the government in Azerbaijan does must be seen through the lens of Armenia’s occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. This has been the case for the last 25 years and will remain the case for the next 25. After the travesty of war experienced in the 1990s, most Azerbaijanis want stability, security and peace. A walk around Martyrs’ Lane is a quick reminder of why. Visions of Azerbaijan.-2016.-Autumn.-p.16-20.

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Three years in Azerbaijan… By Yasmeen Abdlhak They say there is a million scenarios for the future of each individual, they say that God gives you the better one, and lets you create the best out of it. I guess… My road was Azerbaijan, land of eternal fire. 2013 was the year I finished school, in August I headed to Azerbaijan to further continue my education. Soon I became a student in Baku Slavic University, and the journey began, to discover the hidden of a country that had a thousand years of cultural heritage. My first year was a foundation year, teachers prepared us for our upcoming years of university, to be able to absorb easier the materials, fill in the linguistic gaps, advance our writing, reading and speaking skills and learn about the history, geography and culture of Azerbaijan. My appearance was not close to what people here assumed to be “Arab” or “Syrian”, I did not have that bold tanned Arabic look, my Russian accent was not categorized as to being a second or a third language, my hair was not rough noir, it was dark maroon, that would lighten up a bit on the sunshine. To them – to the Azerbaijanis – I looked and spoke like a Lezgin. That time I never knew what lezgin was. This pushed me to learn about the massive ethnic diversity. Who could have imagined that in a country as small as Azerbaijan you would find about 12 ethincs and maybe more, between Lezgins, Talyshs, Kurds, Molokans, Avars and others. Each had their own specific folklore dance, their specific food, and language. It would make a foreigner think, how much effort was put to preserve that much heritage from so many different ethnics I loved Baku. By 2015, I have memorized every ally, street, and turn in the old city. When I had the chance to show newcomers Baku, I would take them to icherisheher (Old City), show them Shirvan Shah, and then Gizgalasi (Maiden Tower), I would never forget to stop by the miniature book museum, that fascinated me the most. In the entire world, you can find only two museums of the kind — one in Ukraine, and the other in Baku. The woman in the museum spoke in two three languages, and had managed to memorize basic information about the museums in more than five languages. Another museum that took my breath way the literature museum. It was not just the history that the museum held within its walls, nor the great sculptures that stood on its front walls guarding it, it was the welcomnes of the guide, her objectivity, her skills, and the detailed philosophical history that I might have not heard of in the university or anywhere else – at that time I was very much interested in Hurufism. Yet Baku was not the only place I have seen and explored in Azerbaijan. I made sure to visit Gobustan, Gebele, Alti agach, Guba and other regions. Right now, I am planning to make it to Ivanovka. My first close up experience with the Azerbaijani youth started, when I joined AEGEE-BAKI. This is a non-governmental organization operating branches all over Europe, and of course in Azerbaijan. I soon became a member there, meeting there the most interesting people that by time proved to be lasting friends. Joining in as foreigners, I was warmly welcomed, was introduced to the whole crew and the active members, and invited to participate in many projects that the organization planned and organized. The time I spent in AEGEE-BAKI broke boundaries and stereotypes in me, I became a more openminded person, open to different cultures, people and society, it also gave me this drive to participate and get involved in other organizations, movements and conferences. My social life was thriving, I was grateful, but AEGEE-BAKI was not my last stop. I participated in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation simulation 2015, some activities held in the university and then MUN, or Module United Nations. MUN clubs started opening in every single university, and I made sure I attended every second mini-simulation. I was a volunteer coordinator for Giovani nel mondo, promoting Rome MUN in every university as well. MUN club presidents were the best, at helping me out, spreading the word and encouraging people to apply. This movement, introduced me to new people, people that where from my same major ( international relations), people that had ideas, believes and hopes that are similar to mine, people that loved to share, to learn and to understand. Baku gave me the greatest gift in three years. I leaned life lessons; I learned that sharing is caring. I knew that before, but seeing it happening in front of me, gave it a whole new definition of sharing. In February 2016, I participated in MILLIMUN. This was the biggest MUN conference, organized by all clubs with the financial help of the Ministry of Youth. That was yet another experience that had to be 7


highlighted and saved in the pages of my diary. I still cannot imagine my life if I would not have participate in this particular conference. The last day of the conference, I was given the second place in my committee, best debater. Azerbaijan is the place through which I could understand the world, or at least a significant part of it. Religion was practiced freely, due to this, it was easy to find a shia mosque and a sunni mosque, to look at the beauty of the architecture of both and listen to the mollahs read prayers. Old Churches were preserved and new were build. In one church in Xatai they would carry on with the Sunday service prayers even in English, allowing foreigners to practice their believes. If walking in the old city, or visiting mosques in the regions, one would spot Zoroastrianism, and of course Ateshgah, the fire temple of Baku. Many, not only for sightseeing but also for religious tourism, visited Ateshka. The phenomenon stood in the fact that Azerbaijanis accepted this diversity as something they lived with all their lives. They embraced every cultural heritage on their land, remembered history and sighted it with pride. This is what makes Azerbaijan truly multicultural, it is not just the diversity, diversity is everywhere, and it is the acceptance of the diversity, the pride and love of the diversity. It is when a nation makes “diversity” part of its identity, and then truly it becomes a multicultural tolerant nation. MilliMUN was a great experience. I learned a lot, made new friends, new memories and devoted myself to help develop the MUN movement in Azerbaijan. In March my internship in UNHCR started, in May I left for a week for Kazakhstan for another MUN – New Silk Way MUN. There I learned that I was not only the only Arab in the conference but also the only one coming from Azerbaijan. Apart from representing my own country, Syria, I made sure that Azerbaijan was represented as well. I talked of Baku, encouraged my new friends to visit the country, and talked of youth activism in Azerbaijan. Yet that was not enough, on the last day, I was able to talk to the vice rector of Al- farabi university, and discuss further coordination between Azerbaijani MUN clubs and Kazakhstan. He was delighted. I still have two years until I finish my bachelor’s degree. Where will my next stop be? I do not know yet, but where ever it would be, I would be glad to have spent here 5 years of my life. Honored to have been able to live on this land, and get a chance to understand and endure its culture and history. I believe that the time that is left for me here, is full of new adventures, and new experience. They say God guides us to the better future and leaves us to accomplish the best of it. Azernews.-2016.-May 20.-№ 38.-P. 6.

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Heydar Aliyev, a wise leader and genius builder of modern Azerbaijan By Amina Nazarli The 93rd birthday of Heydar Aliyev, the national leader of Azerbaijan, is marked in Azerbaijan on May 10. Heydar Aliyev was a talented and prominent politician and public figure who devoted his life to prosperity and well-being of his nation. The great leader led the country into the most, perhaps, a dramatic period of its history, and laid the foundations of a new Azerbaijani statehood. As many as 35 years of the history of Azerbaijan beginning from the late 1960s and proceeding in the 21st century is connected to the name of great leader Heydar Aliyev. For these years, he assumed the responsibility of Azerbaijan, saved the state and the nation of hard and strict tests of history, created an independent country that we call modern Azerbaijan now and its present realities, and laid a reliable foundation for its bright future. The rebirth of the Azerbaijani people in all fields of public-political, economic and cultural life during these years is linked to the name of this great personality. He holds a special place in the history of Azerbaijan, whose role in the fate of the nation is undeniable. After Azerbaijan gained independence, Heydar Aliyev’s Azerbaijanism idea became the basic one for the Azerbaijanis living both in the country and across the world. “We all should unite around this idea,” Aliyev said. “Azerbaijanism means preserving national identity, national and spiritual values, and at the same time enrichment them with universal values, as well as ensuring the development of any person.” National leader Heydar Aliyev was a politician and a self-sufficient person. “I did that all by myself in my life!” was the leader’s credo, evidencing of self-reliance, intelligence, morality and courage of the great leader. Heydar Aliyev was elected president of Azerbaijan in a nationwide vote on October 3, 1993, and was re-elected in 1998. Heydar Aliyev survived the chaos and uncertainty which racked Azerbaijan during its first years of independence. State building is hard work requiring a particular responsibility in approaching the commitments in this context. Heydar Aliyev was well aware that the state building must begin with the “frame”, with the fundamental structures and reforms, but not with decisions that would cause global public applause. Building a modern state on a strong and solid foundation and on national values had been one of Heydar Aliyev’s main goal. Constructive activities in the armed forces, structural changes, unification of combat operations under a single leadership, new military techniques based on established practices had brought new quality to the Azerbaijani army as well. Azerbaijan’s oil strategy began to boom thanks to the fruitful activity of Heydar Aliyev, who has become one of the key contributors to Azerbaijan’s rapid development. “Contract of the Century” signed with the Western oil companies in Baku on September 20, 1994 was of vital importance for Azerbaijan and played a crucial role in the establishment of internal stability in the country, and achievement of success in foreign policy. Heydar Aliyev, who spearheaded the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline project, did much to attract huge western capitals to Azerbaijan, what created many new jobs and lead to the development of several fields. Foreign capitals immediately earned on the economic growth of Azerbaijan, which today is recognized as the highest in the former Soviet space. Azerbaijan’s foreign policy had also gone through radical changes in this period. Azerbaijan strengthened its place in international relations system by setting its short-term international goals, and signed major strategic contracts with European countries, the United States, newly independent states, Turkic states, Muslim world, Iran, Asia, Africa and South America. One of Heydar Aliyev’s most crucial foreign policy achievements was the accession of Azerbaijan to the Council of Europe in 2001, and its integration into the European family. 9


Today his immortal ideas and wise policy is successfully continued by President Ilham Aliyev. Under this farsighted policy, Azerbaijan is rapidly developing and gaining much reputation in the international arena day by day. On this day the people of Azerbaijan pay tribute to the loving memory of Heydar Aliyev, the national leader of the Azerbaijani people, wise leader and genius personality. Azernews.-2016.-May 11.-№35.- p.2.

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Azerbaijan ensures its stability under most difficult conditions By Sevil Mikayilova Azerbaijan has ensured and will continue to ensure its stability, security and development even under the most difficult conditions, Novruz Mammadov, the deputy head of Azerbaijani Presidential Administration, chief of the administration’s foreign relations department, said in an interview with AzerNews newspaper. “Azerbaijan has chosen the right foreign policy,” he said. “We are on the right path and we have chosen the right foreign policy tactics and strategy,” he added. The top official stressed that Azerbaijan is a model state, noting that although it is indeed a small country, it has successfully sent a strong message to all countries within the global processes and international relations. “Let’s build such cooperation and ties that would help and become a drive for the development of all,” he said. “Azerbaijan has built its activity exactly on these principles, and it continues to work in this direction,” he said. Mammadov also touched upon the relations between Azerbaijan and the EU. “The Eastern Partnership summit has been recently held,” Mammadov recalled. “While it adopted the joint declaration, Azerbaijan clearly stated that if no fair position is demonstrated in this issue, if no correct assessment is given to this cooperation, and certain states are shown different approaches, then it will be impossible to reach the right results.” “Therefore, we openly and specifically voiced our position,” said Mammadov. Some circles are taking various actions to discredit Azerbaijan, to denigrate its image on the international arena and to hinder the country’s current development, Mammadov further emphasized. “Some circles in the world support this,” Mammadov said. “The processes taking place on the eve of the first European Games are of peculiar character.” Mammadov was commenting on a discrediting campaign against Azerbaijan conducted by some international circles on the eve of the first European Games. He said that today there are about 200 countries in the world, 193 of which are UN members. “There are certain documents, statements, conventions, and agreements,” he said. “But sometimes actions happen to not coincide with the adopted documents. I would like to stress that while putting its own interests above everything, every country is trying to use them in cooperation with others. A stronger country mainly seeks to use its opportunities, rather than to comply with the norms and principles of international law.” Envy emerges towards those countries with intensive development and certain steps have been taken in order to intercept them, he said. “The weaker the country and the less opportunities it has, the easier it is to manipulate that country,” said Mammadov. “Therefore, some large states would rather see other countries weak, racked by problem in order to keep them under their “umbrella”, under the guise of offering a heling hand.” From this point of view, Azerbaijan’s development today has led to much envy, the top official explained. By using their opportunities, various circles have taken certain steps to discredit Azerbaijan, to tarnish its image on the international arena and to hinder its development, said Mammadov. “For the first time in the world and in the history of mankind, we will hold the First European Games,” he said. “We will hold these Games at the highest level. Heads of all states say they support us in this. But at the same time, their other resources are carrying out various campaigns,” he said. Mammadov called the fact unpleasant. He said the campaign against Azerbaijan is not only connected with the European Games. “Azerbaijan always faces such a treatment,” he said. “I am not talking about all of them, but it was done during the Eurovision song contest as well. However, we held it at a high level at the time, and we will hold these sports games at a high level as well.”

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“There have always been such envy and such intentions, this needs to be perceived as a reality, while ensuring strong unity with the people, our leadership has always worked toward Azerbaijan’ success and prosperity,” said Mammadov. “I believe we have no problems here.” “No matter how hard people will try, and no matter how zealous they are, we are moving forward and we will walk our own path,” he said. The official also spoke about the long-standing Karabakh conflict. “The emergence of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem on the eve of gaining independence by Azerbaijan is not a coincidence – it was created as part of a cunning plan by certain world circles to stunt the country’s growth,” Mammadov said. Some circles in Russia also supported this process, he said. “Currently, there is a deep crisis in international relations and it is a crisis of justice.” Mammadov said the crisis of justice means that the ongoing processes in the world are not viewed on the basis of the norms and principles of international law anymore. “Although we live in the 21st century and compliance with these norms should be natural, no one does that,” said the top official. “It may sound very harsh, but I’ll say that following the collapse of the USSR, processes on the international arena have been accompanied by attempts on the part of powerful states to regulate international relations by putting their own political, economic and geopolitical interests above that of others,” noted Mammadov, adding that it is often unsuccessful. He said the foundation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was laid even before Azerbaijan became independent. “There are certain centers, circles, which are now engaged in these issues,” he said. “At the time there were two main poles – the USSR and the West – a tense standoff was prevailing in about ten countries around the world.” And today, Mammadov said, a similar situation is taking place in about 50 countries. “These problems do not emerge by themselves,” he added. “We know very well how, where and why they have occurred.” Mammadov also said that observing media reports we see that those countries are being constantly mentioned. He went on to say that although Azerbaijan is engaged in a very complex conflict and it is still in a state of war, the country has ensured its stability and security, while securing many great successes, stressing it will continue to develop its statehood. The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a result of the ensuing war, in 1992, Armenian armed forces occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts. The two countries signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia, France and the US are currently holding peace negotiations. Armenia has not yet implemented the UN Security Council’s four resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions. Azernews.- 2015.-May 28.- No. 40.- p.2.

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Ilham Aliyev, farsighted leader of the nation By Sara Rajabova A leader is one who knows the way, goes the way, and shows the way. —John Maxwell December 24 marks the birthday of President Ilham Aliyev. Ilham Aliyev, who is the successor of founder of modern Azerbaijan, national leader Heydar Aliyev, holds one of the most important places in the modern history of the country. As a result of his successful domestic and foreign policies and future-oriented strategies, Azerbaijan has moved forward in the path of development over a short period of time. Regardless of the existing historical, political, geographical conditions and the nature of modern political system, the phenomenon of leadership plays a crucial role in the formation and development of a national state. So, the successful development of one country is the result of its farsighted leadership. The era of Ilham Aliyev leadership of the country – from 2003 to the present day- has entered into the history of Azerbaijan as a period of comprehensive and rapid development. Today, Azerbaijan takes one of the leading places among the rapidly developing countries. At the heart of this development is the successfully implemented far-sighted domestic and foreign policy course of the Azerbaijani leader. Development strategy of Azerbaijan, implemented under the leadership of Ilham Aliyev, is aimed not only at economic growth and political stability, but also increasing the human capital and improving social structures. He has pursued the strategic course laid earlier by great leader Heydar Aliyev. The development is the fruit of various efforts, including successful application of various models of development , achievement of definite goals, systematic implementation of social and political reforms, enriching the legislative framework, creation of favorable conditions for the development of civil society and the rule of law, ensuring and preservation of political stability, which is based on strong foundations, rapid advancement of the international system of relations of the country. The reforms carried out in the country over the past years by President Aliyev, diversification of the country’s economy, social policy, oil strategy, GDP per capita, and proper use of budget revenues, all served to rapid development of the country. His presidency has seen unprecedented economic growth, reforms and inclusion of the poor in development marked by massive poverty reduction not seen anywhere in the west. The global economic crisis that has hit many countries of the world over the past several years had no impact on Azerbaijan. Under leadership of Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan is modernizing its education, reforming its judiciary, infrastructure, agriculture and many other sectors of the economy. Evidences of changes in the life of Azerbaijan under President Aliyev’s prescient policy are visible without any need to sophisticated statistical and economic research. Over the past ten years, the GDP increased by 3.4 times, the non-oil sector by 2.6 times, budget revenues by 16 times and the volume of strategic currency reserves exceeded $50 billion. During these years, more than one million new jobs have been created in the country. Poverty and unemployment rate, which was 49 percent not long ago, has now declined to 5 percent. Azerbaijan’s military budget was $160 million in 2013 and now the figure has been set at $2.27 billion in the budget for 2015. Ilham Aliyev attaches special attention to ensuring and protecting the rights of people living in Azerbaijan with different ethnicities and religions. Religious tolerance prevails in Azerbaijan and representatives of various peoples and religions live here in peace and harmony. People belonging to different cultures have been living in Azerbaijan like one family for centuries. Azerbaijan is recognized as one of the main centers of multiculturalism. “Multiculturalism is a way of life in Azerbaijan. It may be a relatively new term but over the course of centuries Azerbaijan has had a multicultural society. Clear evidence of this is the friendship and solidarity among peoples,” President Aliyev said in one of his speeches. Azerbaijan is almost unique in terms of using its natural resources to ensure prosperity for ten generations. There are more examples showing an opposite trend in the world as the valuable national recourses, such as oil and gas usually bring up problems rather than serving the nations’ prosperity.

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However, Ilham Aliyev with a visionary and comprehensive energy policy has turned Azerbaijan’s natural recourses into a sustainable development tool for the country. His well-thought out strategy has yielded enormous benefits to Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev took an active part in implementation of oil strategy designed by Heydar Aliyev. His efforts served to succession and realization of this policy in the world, as well as development of different projects. His energy policy also played an important role in attracting investments in the country. President Aliyev had made great contributions to the largest transit project Baku- Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline, which was successfully commissioned transporting Caspian oil to foreign markets. The Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic pipeline projects – the world’s largest energy projects -are the brainchildren of Ilham Aliyev, which can change the energy map of the region and Europe. Energy policy pursued by President Aliyev paved the way for transforming and diversifying Azerbaijani economy. Azerbaijan plays an important role not only in the energy sector, but also other sectors determining the geopolitical trends in Eurasia. The policies pursued by President Aliyev turned Azerbaijan into regional power with global plans. Modern Azerbaijan is a country with a great geopolitical importance, economic achievements and political initiatives fully recognized by the international community. Azerbaijan has proven to the world that it is not only oil and Olympic power, but also a space power. Full support of the people of Azerbaijan has greatly inspired Ilham Aliyev to open up new horizons in his activities. Wide world-outlook, deep and thorough knowledge of Ilham Aliyev have brought him high respect and authority as a modern and agile politician. Aliyev’s decisive and purposeful activities contribute to the successful implementation of Heydar Aliyev’s foreign policy and exposures to the world the aggressive position of Armenian invaders violating the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. In the quickly changing modern world, he has successfully represented the interests of Azerbaijan at various international meetings and high level negotiations. His policies are now gaining momentum in resolving new international and regional problems. Ilham Aliyev carries out wise internal reforms and implements purposeful foreign policies aimed at turning Azerbaijan into a leading country across the South Caucasus. Aliyev was born in Baku on December 24, 1961. He graduated the Moscow State University of International Relations (MGIMO) in 1982. Upon his graduation, Ilham Aliyev continued his education as a postgraduate student at MGIMO and received a Ph.D. degree in history in 1985. He taught at the Moscow State University of International Relations between 1985 and 1990. Ilham Aliyev was involved in the private business sector, heading a number of industrial-commercial enterprises from 1991 to 1994. He was vice president, and later the first vice president of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) from 1994 to 2003. He was actively involved in the implementation of Heydar Aliyev’s oil strategy. Ilham Aliyev was twice elected to the Milli Majlis (parliament) of Azerbaijan in 1995 and 2000, and resigned from his post in 2003 due to his appointment to the post of prime minister. In addition to his existing responsibilities, Ilham Aliyev presided over the National Olympic Committee since 1997. He has been elected deputy chairman of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party in 1999, first deputy chairman in 2001, and party chairman in 2005. He headed the Azerbaijani parliamentary delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) from 2001 to 2003. Ilham Aliyev was elected deputy chairman of PACE and member of the PACE bureau in January 2003. Ilham Aliyev was elected president of the republic on October 15, 2003, gaining over 76 percent of the vote. He assumed his post on October 31, 2003. Ilham Aliyev was re-elected for a second term, winning 88 percent of votes in the elections, held on October 15, 2008. He assumed the duties of the presidency on October 24, 2008. On October 9, 2013, Ilham Aliyev was elected for a third term by an overwhelming majority of voters (84.54 percent) for next five years. He assumed the post on October 19, 2013. 14


Azerbaijani people made their choice. They voted for political stability, prosperity and sustainable socio-economic development. The staff of the AzerNews newspaper sincerely congratulates President Aliyev on his birthday. Azernews.-2014.- December 24.-No. 99.-p. 2.

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Heydar Aliyev, hero and national legend By Sara Rajabova December 12 marks the death anniversary of a great person, political figure and Azerbaijan’s national leader Heydar Aliyev, who passed away 11 years ago. Heydar Aliyev, who devoted his life to prosperity and well-being of his nation, holds a special place in the history of Azerbaijan. A talented politician and public figure Heydar Aliyev demonstrated his ability as a national leader and became a legend even when he was alive. The national leader has done unparalleled works for his nation during his ruling over the country during the Soviet period and as the president of an independent Azerbaijan. Heydar Aliyev, who assumed the leadership of the country during the most difficult of times at the request of his nation, gave great confidence to the people and laid the foundation for a country with the strong economic development. He participated in the most complex and contradictory historical processes in the world without losing his self-control in difficult situations, appreciating geopolitical changes that could dramatically affect people. It is no coincidence that Heydar Aliyev was always referred to as the founder of contemporary Azerbaijan. He created a new milestone in the modern history of Azerbaijan. Heydar Aliyev was a unique leader, who gained the love and respect of millions of people through his bright ideas and genuine works. He will remain with us eternally through his ideas and the works he accomplished for the future of Azerbaijan. Heydar Aliyev was born in Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan, on May 10, 1923. After graduating from the Nakhchivan Pedagogical School in 1939, he studied at the Architecture Department of the Azerbaijan Industry Institute (present Azerbaijan State Oil Academy), but war didn’t allow him to complete his education. Aliyev headed a department at the People’s Commissariat of Internal Affairs of the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of Nakhchivan in 1941, and was sent to work at the state security bodies in 1944. He became deputy chairman of the Committee of State Security under the Azerbaijan’s Cabinet of Ministers in 1964, and was conferred the rank of lieutenant general. At that time, he studied in a special retraining school in Leningrad (present St. Petersburg), and then graduated from the History Department of the Azerbaijan State University. Heydar Aliyev became the head of the republic after being elected to the Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan as the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan in July 1969. Heydar Aliyev was elected a member of Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Soviet Union in December 1982, and, being appointed to the post of the First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of the USSR, became one of the leaders of the USSR. In October 1987, Aliyev resigned from his post in protest against the policies pursued by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and the Secretary General Mikhail Gorbachev himself. After the tragedy on 20 January 1990 in Baku by the soviet troops, Heydar Aliyev demanded punishment for the organizers and executors of the crime committed against Azerbaijani’s people. To protest against the hypocritical policy of the USSR leadership and the conflict that accrued in NagornoKarabakh, he left the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in July 1991. After returning to Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev lived in Baku and then Nakhchivan, and was elected as the deputy to the Supreme Soviet of Azerbaijan in the same year. He held the post of Chairman of the Supreme Assembly of the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan and Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of Azerbaijan in 1991-1993. In 1992, Heydar Aliyev was elected as the chairman at the constituent congress of the New Azerbaijan Party in Nakhchivan. As a result of extreme governmental crisis in May-June 1993, the country was on the verge of a civil war and loss of independence. Azerbaijani people wanted to bring Heydar Aliyev to power. So, he was elected as the Chairman of Supreme Soviet of Azerbaijan. 16


Heydar Aliyev came to power as the president of Azerbaijan on July 24, 1993 approved by the parliament – the Milli Mejlis. Heydar Aliyev was elected president of Azerbaijan in a nationwide vote on October 3, 1993, and was re-elected in 1998. Considered as the greatest Azerbaijani politician, he was awarded a number of state orders and medals and international awards. He was also elected as honorable doctor of universities in many countries including the Lenin Order -four times- and Order of Red Star, he received orders and medals from foreign countries and received rank of the Hero of the Socialistic Labor twice. He also received “Yaroslav Mudry” Order, the supreme order of Ukraine, “Peace Premium of Ataturk” Order, the high order of Turkey, and also the Honorable Professor of Moscow State University. President Heydar Aliyev was elected professor and full member of the Academy of Safety, Defense and Legal Norms Problems of the Russian Federation. He was awarded the premium of Andropov on April 3, 2003. On May 10, 2003, a decree was signed on awarding Heydar Aliyev the Order of Saint Apostle Andrey Pervozvanny, the supreme order of Russia. Azerbaijani National leader Heydar Aliyev died on December 12, 2003, but the memory of the brilliant politician is still alive to this day. Heydar Aliyev was a unique leader, who gained the love and respect of millions of people through his bright ideas and genuine work. He will remain forever in the memory and hearts of the people as positive changes in their lives are directly associated with the name of the great leader and his farsighted policy. Every year, the people of Azerbaijan and all Azerbaijanis living around the world commemorate his cherished memory. Heydar Aliyev lives and will live eternally because he has always been associated with strong bonds with the people, which were the source of his strength and power. His immortal ideas and wise policy was successfully continued by President Ilham Aliyev. Under this farsighted policy, Azerbaijan is rapidly developing and gaining more reputation in the world day by day. Azernews.-2014.-December 12.-No. 96.-p. 1-2.

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The demography of independence (1991-2011) by Karim Shukurov Population statistics The main sources for a demographic study of a nation are its population statistics. During the Soviet period (1920-1991) the population figures for Azerbaijan were, of course, included in the vital statistics of the USSR. After the declaration of state independence (18 October 1991) and the collapse of the USSR (18 December 1991) the country’s national statistics were gradually developed in accordance with world standards. These figures now record population reproduction and migration, the census, estimates and forecasts. The general censuses carried out in 1999 and 2009 should be noted as great successes in accumulating information about the population. The statistics are published in specialist journals and magazines: the annual Demographic Indicators in Azerbaijan, Women and Men in Azerbaijan, Youth in Azerbaijan and Children in Azerbaijan. The results of the population censuses of 1999 and 2009 were also published. Population information is also central to the Statistical Yearbooks of Azerbaijan. These materials help to form an overall picture of the demographic situation in Azerbaijan over the years of Independence. The Karabakh war and the population of Azerbaijan In all historical periods wars have occasioned demographic calamity. Armenia’s territorial claims on Azerbaijan since 1988 and their transformation into military operations caused one of the most severe demo-graphic calamities in modern history. All the Azerbaijanis living in Armenia were deported in a very short period of time. 50,149 families (243,628 people) had to leave their historical lands in Armenia and flee to Azerbaijan. Later, as a result of the occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the seven surrounding districts, 146,455 families (611,293 people), as well as 20,678 families (86,386 people) from regions bordering the occupied districts, left their native lands. Approximate calculations suggest that more than 30,000 Azerbaijanis were killed by Armenian armed forces during the Karabakh war. Thus, territorial claims raised by Armenia against Azerbaijan and the Karabakh war dealt a severe blow to the natural historical development of the country’s demography. The transition from the planned economy of the Soviet era to a free market economy, the development of new property relations, changes to the socio-psychological environment established over decades and other factors on top of the war, increased the pressure. The situation demand-ed a substantial state policy in response. Demographic policy In December 1999, a Concept for the Demographic Development of the Republic of Azerbaijan was adopted. An assessment of the situation prevailing in the 1990s was correctly highlighted as the first step to be taken. It became clear that the main demographic indicators had deteriorated considerably over the period: mortality rates had risen and birth rates had fallen. Child and maternal mortality were among the worst affected. The official statistics for 1997 recorded a rate of infant mortality of 19.6 per thousand while information from United Nations sources indicated a figure of 33 per mille. Maternal mortality rose by a factor of 3.3 between 1990 and 1997. Other negative trends appeared in the figures for marriage and divorce. Thus, between 1991 and 1997, the number of marriages declined from 74,000 to 47,000, a fall of 36.8 per cent. Of CIS countries, Azerbaijan had one of the highest numbers of single people in the 25-29 age group without the opportunity to marry. At the same time births outside marriage increased by a factor of 2.8 from 1990-1997, from 2.6 percent to 7.3 percent of births etc. In the face of such negative demographic trends in the first years of Independence, crucial measures were mapped out. The priority for the long-term development strategy was to ensure quantitative and qualita-tive growth in the population by eliminating these trends. Population numbers and composition 18


The formulation of demographic policy and measures appropriate to the real situation effected some changes in the first decade of the 21st century. While on the eve of independence (1991) there were 7,218,500 people in the Republic, by 2000 the number had reached 8,032,800. In 2001, population growth fell from 81,500 to 77,100, but rose again the following year. From 2005, annual growth exceeded 100,000, reaching 117,100 in 2008. In 2011, Azerbaijan’s population was 9,111,100, an increase of 1,892,600 over the figure for 1991. Interestingly, despite fluctuations in population over the period of independence, the urban and rural populations maintained approximately the same ratio (53:47). Although the population of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan underwent certain changes between 1991 and 2011, development continued. Nakhchivan’s population rose from 307,200 in 1991 to 410,100 in 2011. The ratio of urban to rural populations differed from that of the Republic as a whole (29:71) but also remained stable over the period. The age and sex composition of the population is highly significant to the country’s demography. The main tendency in the first decade of the 21st century was growth in the number of males. In 2011, the ratio of males to females was 49.6:50.4; there were 1017 females per 1,000 males. A human factor may be significant in determining the ratio of males to females. The possibility of ascertaining the sex of children in the mother’s womb may have led to the prevention of female births by artificial means. Some new trends in the age composition of the population have also appeared. Thus, compared with the early 1990s, numbers in the age groups 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 have fallen and there are more people aged 70 and over. However, people under 34 years old constitute 60 per cent of the total population; in other words, the population is still considered to be a young one.

Population structure by age and sex in the Azerbaijan Republic at 1 January 2011. Source: Demographic Indicators of Azerbaijan. Baku, 2011 Natural growth of population Azerbaijan has historically had a high birth rate, but this has declined since the end of the 1960s. The downward trend continued until the be-ginning of 2000 and then began to rise again. In 2010, the birth rate was 18.5 per thousand. The mortality rate rose in the early 1990s (from 1992 to 1994, 7.1-7.3 per thousand), due largely to the Karabakh war, but then began to fall again. In 2010, the number of deaths per 1,000 people was 6.0. Changes to the birth and death rates were reflected in population development. Natural growth dropped from 25.3 per thousand in 1991 to 11.2 per thousand in 2010. Demographic processes are mainly related to birth rates. However, the study of mortality also allows us to answer a number of questions. The question What is the main cause of death? raises many important issues. Thus, if respiratory diseases etc. are significant causes of death then it follows that there are serious health problems in that country. Increases in the number of tumours and problems in the circulatory system indicate a more modern cause of death. Investigations into the causes of death in Azerbaijan show that the number of deaths from diseases of the respiratory system, as well as from injury, poisoning and other external causes has fallen significantly. 19


While 88.3 deaths per 100,000 people were caused by diseases of the respiratory system in 1991, in 2010 this number had fallen to 26.6. The number of deaths from injury, poisoning and other external causes were 46.4 and 28.3 respectively. In contrast with these figures, the number of deaths from tumours and circulatory system problems has increased. So, there is a trend towards more modern causes of death and this should be taken into account in the organization of health care. A gradual decline in mortality rates for infants up to 1-year-old is one of the most important trends in the republic’s demographic situation. While there were 25 per thousand in 1991, by 2010 this number had fallen to 11.2. A comparison of infant mortality in urban and rural areas produces interesting results. In 1991, mortality rates for infants up to 1-year-old in urban and rural areas were 21.5 and 28.7 per thousand respectively i.e., the figure was higher in rural areas. However, in 2010 mortality rates for infants up to 1year-old were 14.5 per thousand in urban areas and 8.1 in rural areas, i.e. this number was higher in urban areas. Thus measures for the reduction of infant mortality in rural areas had been more effective. Marriage and divorce The Azerbaijan family is a strong institution and relatives have very firm ties. The structure of the Soviet Union and the emergence of new economic relations after its collapse had an influence on family and mar-riage relationships but could not undermine them. In the late 1990s and the beginning of 2000 there was a sharp decline in the number of marriages per 1000 population; the low point was 1999 with 4.8 per thou-sand. However, from the middle of 2000 the number of marriages rose again. In 2006 there were 9.4 marriages per 1,000 people, in 2007 - 9.5, in 2008 - 9.2 and in 2010 the figure was 8.9 per thousand. The increase in divorce rates began a gradual decline at the end of the Soviet period and in the first years of Independence: there were 19 per thousand in 2010. Migration: more arriving or more leaving? The most significant changes to the demographic situation in the period of independence occurred in migration. The ‘Barrack Socialism’ that existed in the USSR was designed to prevent migration abroad. The situation changed with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Both arrivals and departures increased considerably. Throughout history Azerbaijanis have been distinguished by their close attachment to their native land. How-ever, the new historical conditions gave rise to a surge in migration and an Azerbaijani Diaspora has been established in a number of countries. In the early years of independence the numbers of those leaving the country for permanent residence outstripped the numbers of arrivals. However, people arriving for permanent residence in Azerbaijan gradually began to overtake the number of emigrants. Thus in 2010, 2,200 people arrived to establish permanent residence, while 800 left the country. Thus a specific demographic situation has developed in the Republic of Azerbaijan during the period of independence and new trends established alongside the traditions. Literature 1. Concept for the Demographic Development of the Republic of Azerbaijan // Collected Legislation of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 1999, No 12, pp.2921-2927 2.Children in Azerbaijan. Statistical yearbook. Baku, 2011 3. Demographic Indicators in Azerbaijan. Statistical yearbook. Baku, 2011 4. Statistical Yearbook of Azerbaijan. Baku, 2011 5. Women and Men in Azerbaijan. Baku, 2011 6. Youth in Azerbaijan. Statistical publication. Baku, 2011 Visions of Azerbaijan.-2011.-September-October.-p.24-26.

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All initiatives of the government of Azerbaijan serve to the promotion of cultural understanding and dialogue among civilizations Abulfas Garayev, The Minister of Culture and Tourism of Azerbaijan Republic - Dear Minister, it is undeniable reality that the notion of cultural policy has become the matter of interest and discussions among our fellow citizens, scholars and politicians. Incontestably, the role played by your Ministry is exceptional in this case. In your quality of minister of culture and tourism, how you evaluate such topicality of a cultural policy? - No doubt, increasing importance of the cultural policy can do nothing but make me glad. Indeed, it should be recognized that today, a cultural policy causes political, scientific, public and international interest. This importance will only increase over time. It is therefore necessary to outline several strategic goals that will explicitly deal with cultural politics. In this context, it is indispensable to point out such targets as supporting cultural diversity, protecting masterpieces of cultural heritage and national identity, developing artistic education that has tremendous educational importance and plays an exceptional role in the formation of aesthetic taste, creating necessary conditions for creative activities, establishing intercultural dialogue and tolerance, promoting national culture across the world, supporting innovative qualities and initiatives, undertaking measures to study and promote national culture and cultural features in general. Goals noted above inform us about the role played by a cultural policy in the sovereign development of the people and its prosperity. In addition to the reasons given above, several more must be discussed as to why cultural politics in becoming increasingly relevant. Thus, in light of inevitable globalization processes, the importance and topicality of culture and cultural forms which are the main indicators and factors of national identity are increasing sharply. For this reason, the preservation of national culture and its development in contemporary period are deemed already as the issues of national significance. In this context, the ongoing information war must be more fully addressed. Indeed, in the context of information war, the role played by the cultural policy is exceptional in promoting national cultural heritage of the Azerbaijani people and its recognition across the world and in preventing grab-and-own policy of Armenia pursued throughout the years. In addition, I have to underline that it is extremely important to forge a perfect harmony between the cultural and foreign policies of country in preventing grab-and-own facts and conduct effective promotion activities. Thus, being one of the integral and the important parts of the state policy, the cultural policy is something that ensures moral, economic and social development of the nation, increases its intellectual potential, strengthens moral health status and welfare of people and makes the promotion and unity between national and classical cultural masterpieces. The targets and factors I said earlier open up good horizons by proving importance and infinite topicality of the cultural policy. - We realize that our readers would be upset if we didn't directly address questions related to current government policy in regards to cultural politics in our interview with the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Mr. Minister, we acknowledge fully, sir, that such a broad question may not be answered with ease. However, we would ask that you give us a basic answer, specifically dealing with general trends you see and the primary goals your office has in relation to cultural politics. - In this case, I have to note that all initiatives of the government serve to the nation\'s welfare, improving international image of Azerbaijan and bringing back the occupied lands. Therefore, the fact of establishing the ministry of culture and tourism in 2006 on the initiative of Mr.Ilham Aliyev, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan should be indeed treated that way. The creation of the Ministry is not just the outcome of structural reforms in the public political system, but it defines new strategic goals and priorities primary in public policies. Thus, the strategic unity between culture and tourism should serve to global recognition of our republic and the formation of image of our Azerbaijan as a civil country with rich history and diverse culture and carrying out its promotion at international level. Such approach requires radical improvement of the image of cultural field inside the society and better understanding of political potential of cultural factor. Complicated and important goals assigned for the cultural policy make us to work out of the symbolical context of the culture observed in Soviet period. 21


Today, Azerbaijani realities (speedy development and integration into world) as well as ongoing information war make it important to use mainly political potential of the culture. As a result of direct attention and care of country\'s leadership, the cultural policy lives through the best period of its development and entails a crucial importance for the development of our nation parallel to economic, social and foreign policies. At the same time it should be noted that the cultural policy has an exceptional significant in such issues as the development of nation and preservation of its identity which disposes immense cultural richness, great history, diverse traditions and acts as an independent country. Social-economic and political processes taking place at global level and in principle, the comprehensive globalization trends assign such goals in the cultural policy as preservation of national moral values, analyzing the optimal ways of cultural integration, harmonizing current theoretical views and approaches in the form of a concept, promoting moral-national values and others. It is not by accident that the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the Republic of Azerbaijan defines the area of using scientific potential as one of its priority goals. Comprehensive scientific methods and analytical analysis serve to the strategic planning in this field, its creative management, adequate assessment of current processes, defining existing trends and development models and effective forecast of cultural events. Thus, such short analysis informs us about the important role played by the cultural policy in the political prospective and welfare of the people. In fact, main priorities of this policy is stemming out from goals and tasks defined for this field by Mr. Ilham Aliyev, the head of state. Incontestably, as it goes with other fields, the cultural policy can go through some changes and correlations in its development. These changes are required by dynamically developing secular processes and the hostile environment. But there is one unchangeable reality: the richness and beauty of Azerbaijani culture. Preservation of this richness of our people and its handover to future generation prove undeniable importance of cultural policy. - It was been awhile since the media wrote about World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue that will be held in Baku from April 7th to the 9th. This event, given its size and the prestige it has, may well prove to be the most important political event of the year. As a main organizer, what can you say about its political importance? - First of all, I thank you very deeply for your high praise. It is true the attention paid to the World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue to be held in the city of Baku by Azerbaijani society is a source of joy. Indeed, this factor, I mean, the interest of ordinary citizens prove the formation of civil society in Azerbaijan and the high level of political socialization among population. In its turn, it shows that the political system of Azerbaijan is being built on the democratic principles. Well, even today we can very firmly say that the World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue has a tremendous global importance. The Forum organized by international community and institutions is seen as a prestigious event able to churn out positive humanitarian vibes which are very necessary for the world in contemporary period. In light of current processes of globalization and identity construction, the intercultural dialogue has an intrinsic value. It is not by accident that one of the main slogans of the Forum is: \"From Dialogue to Understanding. Intercultural Dialogue serves to tolerance, long term interstate relations and in general, the application of democratic principles in international relations.\" For this reason, the initiative shown by the Government of Azerbaijan to host the Forum is accepted and supported adequately by prestigious international institutions. Such organizations as UNESCO, the Council of Europe (CoE), UN Alliance of Civilizations and North-South Center of the Council of Europe and ISESCO operating in the same field will gather in Baku to take part in the Forum. The participation of all these organizations which work to define global political and cultural trends not only enhances the ability of the Forum to have a real significance but will surely help to enhance Azerbaijan\'s image abroad. Thus, the foreign policy of our state passes from regional a framework into the global one. At the same time, international attention to such events, as well as to the Forum itself can play an important role in assigning Baku the status of an intercultural dialogue capital. I think that all the issues mentioned above provide a quite detailed guide to the political significance of the World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue. In addition to this answer, I would like to point out that 22


many things depend on active participation of the mass media to attain effectively the goals we assigned for ourselves and to carry out successfully the promotion work in the framework of the cultural policy. - One of important factors which demonstrate the scale of this Forum is the geography of countries to be represented in the event. Taking it into account, we kindly ask you to share information about the participating states with our readers. - As you know, the first expression of interest that Azerbaijan showed in hosting the Forum was expressed in the 65th session of the General Assembly of the UN in New York on September 23, 2010 by President Ilham Aliyev. It is the result of such declaration by the head of state from such an important podium that today world countries focus their attention and show their interest to the Forum. Due to this statement made at such an essential area of world politics, that so many countries are interested in the Forum. The event will bring together representatives from over 80 countries. Further, from this number, there are the culture ministers from over 20 countries. The geography of the participants covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, Australia and Africa. Besides the culture ministers, the Deputy Director General of UNESCO, the Director General of ISESCO, the President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the Director of Development Assistance Program of the World Tourism Organization, the Executive Director of North-South Center of the Council of Europe and high ranking officials from other international institutions and non-governmental organizations will participate in the forum. In a word, taking into account the geography of countries represented in this event and the prestige of the international organizations, the World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue should be considered a global event. - What results are expected by the Azerbaijani people at the end of this prestigious event? - Each international project, including the Forum mentioned earlier, which are implemented by the Government of Azerbaijan alter the perception of our county within the international framework. They are increasing the number of our partners in solving Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Therefore, Azerbaijani society should take an active part in the realization of such initiatives and every single citizen should spare no effort in bringing the realities of the conflict to the international community and helping to promote the ideals of our republic notwithstanding their positions and activities. - Making use of this opportunity, we would like to congratulate you on the declaration of the current year as the Year of Tourism and on the World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue which will become one of the important places events in the contemporary history of Azerbaijan. We wish successes in attaining the goals set in the cultural policy which have such tremendous importance for the development of our nation. Mədəniyyət.-2011.-6 aprel.-№23.-S.8.

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Parliamentary Azerbaijan a brief history by Tural Islamov Members of the Russian State Duma The history of Azerbaijani parliamentarianism goes back almost to the beginning of the 20th century, to the formation of the first State Duma in Russia. Six members, including Alimardan bey Topchubashov, Mammad Tagi Aliyev and others from the Azerbaijani Muslim population located in Baku, Yelizavetpol (Ganja) and Irevan (the old name for Yerevan) provinces were successful in being elected to the 1st State Duma. A Muslim faction in the Duma had 36 representatives from different regions of Russia; the Azerbaijani members were the most active. They were critical of the policy of national and religious discrimination pursued by the Russian Empire in the Southern Caucasus and, therefore, defended the interests, not only of Azerbaijanis, but of all Russian Muslims. As the 1st State Duma did not suit the tsarist government it was dissolved in July 1906. In February 1907 a new, 2nd State Duma, was formed. Again six members were elected (Fatali Khan Khoysky, Khalil bey Khasmammadov and others). They were once more active in the Muslim faction. Khoysky and Khasmammadov were elected to the Duma bureau; however, this Duma was also dissolved. The tsarist government toughened the election law in order to produce a more pliable Duma. In the 3rd and 4th Dumas, Azerbaijanis were represented by only one member. The Transcaucasus Seim The provisional government acceding to power after the overthrow of the Russian monarchy in February 1917 conducted elections for an Enterprises Assembly in the summer. However, following the Bolshevik October revolution, this government was overthrown. On 14 February 1918 the Transcaucasian Seim was established in Tbilisi as the supreme government for the Southern Caucasus. The Muslim faction was represented by 44 members in the Enterprises Assembly, winning more than 1 million votes from the Turkic and Muslim populations of Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. As in the State Dumas, the Azerbaijani members were distinguished by their systematic political activity in the Transcaucasian Seim. It was on their initiative that the Seim declared Transcaucasia’s independence from Russia on 9 April 1918, and the United Republic of Transcaucasia was established. Independence and a national Council On 25 May 1918 the Transcaucasian Seim disintegrated, the Muslim faction (which could also be called the Transcaucasian Muslim Parliament) held a separate meeting and decided to declare independence for Azerbaijan. The faction named itself the National Council of Azerbaijan. Thus was the first parliament in the history of Azerbaijan established. A presidium and chairman were elected at that meeting. Mammad (actually Mahammad) Amin Rasul-Zadeh was chairman of the National Council. On 28 May a Declaration of Independence was adopted at a meeting chaired by Hasan bey Agayev. The Declaration stated: “Azerbaijan is a parliamentary republic and the civil and legal guarantor of all citizens, irrespective of their nationality, religion, social status and gender.” the Declaration of Independence established the first parliamentary republic in the Turkic and Muslim world and, indeed, in the whole East. The Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (ADR) At a meeting of the National Council dated 18 November 1918, a resolution to establish a parliament in Azerbaijan was approved. It was decided to summon 80 Muslim Turk representatives, 21 Armenian representatives, 10 Russian representatives and 1 representative of the German, Jewish and other nationalities accordingly. 24


Thus, on 7 December 1918, the first meeting of the legislative assembly of the first professional parliament in the eastern world, the ADR, was held. This regime continued from 7 December 1918 to 27 April 1920. During this period, 145 meetings of the parliament were held and more than 270 laws were discussed. Approximately 230 of them were passed. The most important laws passed by the Parliament concerned the preservation of the country’s territorial integrity and independence and the building of a democratic state in order to ensure legality and freedom for people. 11 standing committees were active in the parliament. Internal contradictions, an abundance of factions and alignments (there were around 10 factions) hindered the normal functioning of the parliament. As a result the government was changed about four times during the 23 months of the Republic. However, the parliament approved a whole number of laws concerned with state building. Much work was done to achieve international recognition of the young republic. Owing to the efforts of a delegation headed by parliamentary chairman A.Topchubashov, on 12 January 1920 the main countries participating in the Paris Peace Conference recognised Azerbaijan’s independence. On 22 April, the parliament approved a law to open diplomatic representations in Britain, France, Italy, Sweden, Poland and the USA. These initiatives remained unfulfilled due to the occupation of Azerbaijan by Bolshevik Russia. One of the problems given great attention in the parliament was the regulation of relations with neighbouring countries. After intense discussions, relations with Georgia were resolved and an agreement to establish friendly relations between Iran and Azerbaijan was signed. Dashnak Armenia and Soviet Russia maintained their hostility towards the ADR. The resolution agreed by the parliament on 27 April to transfer power to the Bolsheviks met the interests of these states. The Soviet era On 28 April 1920, after the collapse of the national state and its legislative body, the Soviet era began, along with the history of the Soviet parliament in Azerbaijan. These parliaments reflected 70 years of Azerbaijan’s political history, both in their formation and for the facts that their composition and course of work were defined by the Communist Party. The Revolutionary Committee declared on 29 April 1920 was the first legislative and ruling body established by the Soviets in Azerbaijan. Communists were part of its structure. This was the important element of Moscow’s political tactics. Naturally, real power lay with the party leadership, the Central Committee of the Communist (Bolshevik) Party of Azerbaijan (CC of C(b)PA) being the local organization of the C(b)PR, more precisely, power really lay with the Baku bureau headed by Russians and Armenians (Mikoyan, Mirzoyan). To create the illusion of people’s ownership of power, the Bolsheviks began organising a system of representative governmental bodies. On 20 May there were elections to the Baku Soviet. The election procedure was organised in such a way that non-Muslims were the majority in that organisation. With the inclusion of Azerbaijan into the USSR, organised at the end of 1922, even the formal parliamentary functions were reduced to zero. The General Executive Committee (GEC), where all important decisions were made, was superior to the Transcaucasian GEC, which was superior to the Azerbaijani GEC. By the Constitution of the USSR adopted in 1936, the Transcaucasian Federation was abolished and Azerbaijan became a subject of the USSR as a union republic. According to a document called the Stalin Constitution, a new parliamentary institution was established in the Soviet Union, the Supreme Soviet. The Constitution of the Azerbaijan SSR, adopted in 1937, also reflected these changes. Elections to the Supreme Soviet were conducted every four years. The ratio of seats to population was defined as 1 member per 12,500 people. The elections were carried out in single member constituencies, in other words by a system of majority voting. As a matter of fact, they were not elections. Only one candidate was nominated for each seat. The numbers of workers, kolkhoz members, office workers, women, young people, unaffiliated members etc. in the parliament were defined by the party leadership. The party leadership also determined the chairmanship of meetings for sessions of the Supreme Council. The sessions were held 2-3 times per year and continued for several days. In other words, this was not a fully functional parliament. The members assembled from season to season, accepted the resolutions and laws proposed and then went away. For the rest of the year, the functions of a legislative body were carried out 25


by the Presidium of the Supreme Council. The chairman of the Presidium was seen as second to the parliamentary and party leader in the government’s hierarchy. Those elected to the Supreme Soviet of the Azerbaijan SSR, as well as to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, were mainly people who did not have independent positions and could not defend the interests of Azerbaijan. By instruction of the first convocation of the Supreme Soviet on 7 May 1938, a protocol was confirmed to transfer an area of two thousand hectares from the Gubadli, Kalbajar and Gazakh regions to Armenia. The last Supreme Soviet, elected in 1990, entered into Azerbaijani history as a legislative body of both Soviet and independent eras. All the political and constitutional decisions on Azerbaijani independence were adopted by this parliament. On 26 June 1990, at the 12th session of the 11th convocation of the Supreme Soviet, a resolution on “Elections of members of the Azerbaijan SSR” was accepted and elections for a new parliament were fixed for 2 September. There were a number of changes in the new election legislation. First of all, members were to be elected in 360, rather than 450, electoral districts. Membership of the new Supreme Soviet was reduced by 90 seats. On the other hand, the members’ term of office was prolonged by 1 year and the Supreme Soviet was elected not for 4 years, but for 5 years. The most important aspect of the elections was that they offered a choice. Finally, the Soviet election practice, which followed the principle of “1 mandate for 1 candidate” was ended. For the first time, people who opposed the Communist Party had a chance to get into parliament. However these changes were mainly of a formal character. At the same time, the government could not turn a totally deaf ear to the social and political reality existing in the republic. The elections saw the opposition take 30 seats, approximately 8 per cent of the 360-seat parliament. Independence regained From the end of 1991, centrifugal tendencies in the USSR intensified. The Supreme Soviet of Azerbaijan held an extraordinary session on 29 August. Members of the opposition proposed the urgent adoption of a resolution on independence. After intense discussions, the declaration “On restoration of state independence for the Republic of Azerbaijan” was adopted unanimously, on 30 August. The resolution stressed that the Republic of Azerbaijan was the successor to the independent state which existed from 1918- 1920. At the same time, as the declaration was a plain document, the Supreme Soviet issued a decision on the drafting and adoption of a Constitutional Act on the independence of Azerbaijan. On 15 November the Supreme Soviet decided to conduct a referendum on the Constitutional Act “On state independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan”. The referendum was organised for 29 December. On 26 November the Supreme Soviet made a decision to create a National Council consisting of 50 members within the parliament. The Council consisted of a “Democratic bloc” and a “Communist bloc”, each with 25 members, and was the result of a compromise between the government and the opposition. The National Council was created as a temporary structure and was essentially a deliberating body. Resolutions proposed for discussion by the Supreme Soviet first had to pass through this organisation. In fact, the National Council gradually replaced the Supreme Soviet and, from the spring of 1992, began to carry out the functions of the parliament of Azerbaijan. Thus, the last Supreme Soviet elected under the Soviet and communist party regime, as well as standing as an interim government after the declaration of Azerbaijan’s independence, handed over to the “mini parliament” - the National Council - and stepped off the political stage. During this period, one of the most important discussions was the 1994 juridicalpolitical assessment of the “20 January” tragedy. Discussions began on 19 January, continued for about two months, with some intervals, and finished on 29 March with the adoption of the comprehensive resolution “About the tragic events perpetrated on 20 January 1990”. At the same time (on 24 February) the parliament adopted a resolution on the Khojaly tragedy. The text of the resolution, considering an annual commemoration of the “Day of the Khojaly genocide” on 26 February was sent to the parliaments of the world and to international organisations. The Milli Majlis (parliament) 1995 was a decisive year in the development of Azerbaijani statehood. On 12 November, elections were held to the Milli Majlis, along with a referendum on a new Constitution for Azerbaijan. According 26


to electoral law, the parliament consisted of 125 members (100 of them elected proportionally and 25 by majority). As per official results, 86 per cent of electors voted. 92 percent of voters supported the projected Constitution. After the election of the Milli Majlis, the new membership began to conduct workshops and scientific conferences connected with the formation and development of juridical governmental and nongovernmental organisations on a permanent basis. These activities raised issues connected with the protection of the rights of refugees and forced migrants from the Karabagh conflict. Furthermore, women’s rights were also discussed: their participation in government bodies and their role in renewing social and civic legislation. International conventions and UNO documents were translated into the Azerbaijani language. In 1996 foundations were laid for relations between the parliament of Azerbaijan and the Parliament Assembly of the Council of Europe. Azerbaijan gained guest status with PACE and Baku applied officially to enter the CE. In June 2000, Azerbaijan was invited to PACE. In January 1998, Azerbaijan was the first Muslim country to abolish capital punishment. At that time capital punishment was legal even in some member countries of the CE. In summer 1998, the parliament adopted the law “On the Constitutional Court”. For the first time in Azerbaijan, the highest instance of judicial authority began its work. On 7 August 1998, the censorship imposed on the Azerbaijani press was completely abolished. In June 2000, intense discussions on the new electoral legislation were held in the Milli Majlis. Elections for its second convocation were held on 5 November 2000. The history of the new parliament is also rich in terms of legislation and international relations. On 25 January 2001, Azerbaijan became a full member of the CE. According to the fixed quota, 12 seats (6 main seats and 6 reserve seats) in PACE were allocated to Azerbaijan. A group headed by Ilham Aliyev, a member of the Milli Majlis, took part in the work of PACE for the first time. Seats were allocated in the group for representatives of the governing party and for independents, as well as two seats for opposition members. According to an amendment made to Article 83 of the Constitution, as a result of a referendum held on 24 August 2002, the proportional system of elections to the Milli Majlis was abolished in favour of elections to single-seat electoral districts. Parliamentary powers were also partially extended. Parliament gained the right to elect an Ombudsman (Article 95) and to require an annual report from the government. The number of electoral districts was increased from 100 to 125. The new Election Code, an important tranche of legislation, was adopted by the parliament in 2003. In general, the provisions of the Election Code were considered acceptable by international experts, including the Venice Committee of the CE. Parliamentary elections to the third convocation were held in 2005. From 2005- 2010, the Milli Majlis succeeded in creating a new juridical basis in order to introduce international innovations in legal and other fields, as well as international experience, to preserve the national values of the Azerbaijani people. The main issue was the organisation of social protection for the population. Among the other important documents adopted, we may list such laws and resolutions as “The military doctrine of Azerbaijan”, “Protection of human rights”, “Freedom of assembly”, “Concerning the mass media”, “Gender equality”, “Concerning the acceptance of information”. The latest elections in Azerbaijani parliamentary history were held on 7 November 2010. The active participation of new faces, especially of younger people among the candidates in the elections, can be considered an important step. 741 candidates stood in the elections. This showed increased activity by candidates compared with previous elections. 93 of the candidates were women. The new parliamentary elections are already part of history. On 29 November 2010, the fourth convocation of the Milli Majlis began its work. About the author: Tural Islamov is a doctoral candidate of the Department of Azerbaijani History at Baku State University. He is the author of articles on the history of parliamentarianism in Azerbaijan. email: [email protected] Visions of Azerbaijan.-2010.-November/December.-p.18-23.

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Azerbaijan: ethnopolitical security in the first half of the 21st century Kenan Allahverdiev, Ph.D. (Philos.), Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science and Political Administration, Academy of State Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (Baku, Azerbaijan) Introduction I would like to say from the very beginning that any, even hypothetical, consideration of a conflict settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the focal point of the Caucasian instability salient, would be illogical without taking into account the possible geopolitical shifts in the region and in each of its countries. This suggests the following: — An analysis of the key factors of what is called the forecast background: the key trends of the initial and forestalling period in the history of the phenomenon being studied; — Long-term forecasts of the prospects for ethnopolitical security of the Azerbaijan Republic based on the principles of scientific prognostication; — A normative scenario of the country’s development in the mid- and long-term perspectives based on the priorities of its ethnopolitical security strategy. The Forecast Background: Key Factors Any political forecast, either of domestic or international developments, should follow certain principles (it should take account of possible alternatives, be verifiable, objective, etc.), thus serving as the starting point for the forecast proper. This is an all-important requirement and the hardest to obey. Scenarios can be described as the most widely used type of political forecasting based on the correct identification of critical points in any political entity, the quantitative impact on which might trigger irreversible qualitative changes. To achieve this, we should single out the key factors of the forecast background. In our case, they are: First, the factor of Caucasian geopolitics; much has already been written about the problem, however the target of the study remains somewhat vague. There is no Caucasian region (or even what is known as the Southern Caucasus) in the strict sense of the word. There are three states with different development vectors, different values, and different political mentalities. This means that the Caucasus is not a subject but an object of geopolitics and that global and regional powers, rather than the local states and their coordinated efforts, are behind the geopolitical changes there. This creates another problem, viz. the vague and inconsistent policies of the largest powers in the region and their attitude toward Azerbaijan. It is no exaggeration to say that Russia and the United States have not yet clarified their Caucasian policies. Second, the factor of a successful national development model, which the region badly needs. It should harmonize, in the most natural and fundamental way, ethnic, national, and regional interests in all spheres of social life. Kamaludin Hajiev has written on this score that the Caucasus “is a knot of barely resolvable socioeconomic, national-territorial, confessional, geopolitical, and other interests. We should bear in mind that the new Transcaucasian states, just as the other post-Soviet countries, are facing the cardinally important problem of a quest for new ways of socioeconomic and sociopolitical development and their detailing.1 The 2009 rating published by International Living magazine placed Azerbaijan ahead of its regional neighbors and the CIS partners in terms of economic growth rates.2 Azerbaijan's heavier geopolitical and geoeconomic weight points to the direction the region will follow some time in the future. Third, the military-political factor. There is a more or less widely accepted opinion that a full-scale war will mark the point of no return and destabilize the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus, the Greater Black Sea-Caspian Region, and even in the Middle East. Let's discuss this in greater detail. Numerous 1 2

K.S. Gadjiev, Geopolitika Kavkaza, Mezdunarodnye otnoshenia, Moscow, 2003, p. 8. [www.internationalliving.com]: [http://br.az/index.php?newsid=5056].

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pessimists not merely predict this, they also supply exact dates. Putting minor differences aside, the following can be described as the key possibilities: a war between the United States and its allies (Israel) and Iran; a war between Russia and one of the Caucasian states; a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The media described the consequences of a war between the West and Iran, a potential nuclear power, as the "Iranian Armageddon": Iran will respond with "retaliatory" strikes; the war will spread along its entire border; Color Revolutions will spring up in Tehran or in the north with its predominantly Azeri population; the state will fall apart into three parts; Iran might start a preventive war against Turkey and Azerbaijan. The above will not be limited to purely military threats; Azerbaijan's ethnopolitical and national security will be upset by an uncontrolled inflow of millions of refugees from the conflict zones. The more or less similar developments of 1988-1992 when about 200 thousand Azeris fled Armenia provide a vague idea of the possible domestic destabilization in the Azerbaijan Republic caused by this new ethnopolitical factor. The scale of the Iranian humanitarian catastrophe will be quite a bit larger. The hostilities of the summer of 2008 dissipated the last illusion nurtured by the Caucasian elites about Russia's willingness to interfere in their countries' domestic affairs and to use force. Today, however, for political and economic considerations, Russia will not go to war to expand its influence lest it strain its budget undermined by the world crisis and its international political status beyond endurance. A war between Armenia and Azerbaijan will detonate the region. The Armenian media are fond of chewing over this possibility; some of the authors venture to give exact dates and directions of possible strikes; others call on the public to ignore the warnings coming from Azerbaijan as intended, it is argued, for domestic consumption. Regrettably, it must be admitted that the threat of war is very high indeed: many years of mediation to reach peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have so far failed. Thomas de Waal, a prominent British Caucasian expert, said at the Conference on Settlement of the Karabakh Conflict: the Real and the Unreal that, no matter how small, there was the risk of another flareup in the Karabakh zone. This could happen, said he, if the military and politicians decided to use the huge amounts of already accumulated weapons. Azerbaijan, dissatisfied with the status quo, would, sooner or later, do something to return its territories. The cease-fire regime is still in place, he went on to say, and added that he did not want to sound like an alarmist. The OSCE Minsk Group would be unable to prevent another round of hostilities: the status quo is comfortable, but can hardly last forever. Official Baku is prepared to talk, but never lets a military solution out of sight. International experts and structures, like the OSCE MG, should be involved, but they cannot operate on their own. "The European Union should be more actively involved in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict because, should it become aggravated, Europe will be compelled to participate in eliminating the consequences." 3 The Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community published by the U.S. Intelligence Service in January 2010 confirmed that the hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be resumed despite the improved relations between Turkey and Armenia, which, in turn, warmed up Armenian-Azeri relations to a certain extent and improved the climate around the Karabakh conflict.4 President Ilham Aliev, likewise, is aware of the threat: Azerbaijan is resolved to achieve a peace settlement, yet "we cannot completely rule out the use of force. We have the right, based on international law, to restore our territorial integrity. None of the countries doubts this." 5 According to Eugene Chausovskiy, analyst for the Stratfor Global Intelligence Company, Azerbaijan could not start a war because of the negative response of its traditional allies, Turkey, the United States, and Europe; Russia, which regards Armenia as its military ally, might be inspired to engage in military combat.6 In Russia, G. Trofımchuk, an expert engaged in forecasting the possible moves of the great powers in the event of a new war in Karabakh, is convinced that Russia will remain neutral. 7 Another Russian military expert, Pavel Felgengauer (who made a name for himself by revealing before the 2008 Au- gust 3

Quoted from: T. Maksutov, "Spiashchiy Nagorno-karabakhskiy konflikt mozhet 'prosnutsia' v voennye deistviia," available at [http://azeri. ppd.spb.ru/papers/echo-az_info/64256/]. 4 See: D.C. Blair, "Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 12 February 2009," available at [http://intelligence.senate.gov/090212ftlair.pdfl. 5 [http://www.apa.az/ru/news.php?id=139042], 14 July, 2009. 6 [http://www. 1 news.az/interview/20100316110044330.html]. 7 [http://kavkasia.net/Azerbaijan/article/1268016965.php 07/03/2010].

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war that Russia was planning aggression against Georgia), does not exclude another war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.8 The above is most important for prognosticating Azerbaijan's ethnopolitical security and its possible scenarios. Scenario 1 - "Federalization of the Azerbaijan Republic" More or less noticeable progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement is triggering talks about the state's federalization: this has developed into one of the most striking features of the peace process. Federation is a contradictory system which looks different in different countries. In the Soviet Union, it never developed into a viable principle, rather served as a starting point for ethnic conflicts and ethnic separatism. Autonomous statuses of all levels were distributed far and wide for various reasons, which created political and legal collisions.9 The Azerbaijanian S.S.R. had its share of autonomies—the Nakhchivan A.S.S.R. and the NagornoKarabakh Autonomous Region; the Constitution, meanwhile, described it as a unitary state. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenian occupation of Azeri lands created stable aversion to the federation principle among the national elite. Society has graduated to the awareness that "accepted as the basic one, the national principle of a federation was wrong from the very beginning. It was rather a delayed action mine of cataclysms, separatism, and disintegration of states."10 A. Zakharov, a Russian student of federalism, has identified the following as one of the fundamental threats to the state's security and integrity: "the combination of ethnic and territorial principles and the constitutionally confirmed irreversible association between the ethnic group and the territory on which it lives. We have inherited this obsolete approach from Marxism. Today it is applied mainly in developing countries, such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, and India. The East European federa- tions based on this principle (the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia) fell apart; there are doubts about the viability of the only new state based on the same principle—Bosnia and Herze- govina."11 The above explains why the idea of a federation for Azerbaijan is resolutely rejected at all the negotiation stages. Baku suggests discussing only "the widest possible autonomy within the unitary Azeri state." Dina Malysheva has pointed out that "if the Azeri leaders agree to change the status of NagornoKarabakh and agree to what the Karabakh Armenians want, other national minorities (Lezghi- ans, Kurds, and Talyshins) will demand the same, thus endangering the country's integrity."12 The obvious dynamics of the negotiation process, more active involvement of the intermediaries, and the official statements coming from Baku that Azerbaijan is prepared to give Nagorno-Karabakh a higher autonomy status bred absolutely unfounded illusions among some of the experts about imminent federalization of the state. There was talk that the country would acquire a new administrative-territorial division by uniting all the districts into eight provinces which would be named after the cardinal points (with the exception of Nakhchivan and Nagorno-Karabakh). This should not be ignored as idle talk. Certain representatives of the national minorities of Azerbaijan never stop talking about this; in 2009, they even tried to change the republic's map. Marco Shakhbanov, a self-appointed defender of the interests of the Avar minority in Azerbaijan (who has never been to the republic), was very radical: "Azerbaijan will consist of five autonomies: the Armenian Autonomous Republic with its capital in Stepanakert; the Talyshin Autonomous Republic with Lenkoran as its capital; the Lezghian Autonomous Republic with its center in Kusary; and the Avar Autonomous Republic with its center in Zakataly. Nakhchivan will preserve its present status of an autonomous republic."13 Conclusions. The positive aspects:ethnopolitical threats are neutralized in the short term, while the country moves closer to the European humanitarian standards.

8

[http://kavkasia.net/World/2010/1268417590.php.12/03/2010]. A.I. Lepeshkin, "Mnogoobrazie vidov sovetskoy federatsii," Pravovedenie, No. 5, 1975, pp. 17-25. 10 M.S. Salikov, Sravnitelny federalizm v SShA i Rossii, Ekaterinburg, 1998, p. 545. 11 A.A. Zakharov, "Federalizm i globalizatsiia," available at [http://www.politstudies.ni/N2004fulltext/2002/6/l l.htm]. 12 D. Malysheva, "Fenomen etnoseparatizma na Kavkaze i mirovoy opyt," available at [http://www.ca-c.org/journal/ cac-041999/st_06_malysheva.shtml]. 13 [http://www.rosbalt.ru/2009/10/06/677554.html]. 9

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The negative aspects:in the mid term (up to 10 years), the country might fall apart into ethnic units; separatist sentiments in these areas will mount to make foreign interference probable. The strategy involved: the so-called historical compromise achieved on the basis of ethnic selfidentification borders on betrayal of the Azeris' key national interests. Indeed, a national-territorial federation in Azerbaijan presents the greatest threat to its ethnopolitical security; it can be described as a stage on the road toward complete liquidation of its national statehood. Scenario 2 - "Unitization of Azerbaijan" While federalization of Azerbaijan is a domestic ethnopolitical scenario with serious regional geopolitical consequences, unitization presupposes that its borders will encompass the entire Azeri ethnic territory. This spells a radical change in the state borders, very much in line with the New Big Game, and provides a context for discussing two hypothetical projects related to the new format of Azeri statehood: the "larger" (American) and the "smaller" (Russian). Sergey Markedonov of Russia has said the following about the "larger format": "The idea of an Anschluss of two Azerbaijans, which looks fantastic today, might be politically needed some time in the future. The Karabakh issue might acquire a different dimension if Azerbaijan supports American policies in Iran, where separate parts will be fighting for 'self-identification.' Karabakh, a contested territory, will be the prize for showing loyalty to the global superpower. Another scenario is also possible, at least theoretically: Karabakh could be 'exchanged' for Southern Azerbaijan. In this case, the single ethnic territory divided (in the 1820s) between Iran and the Russian Empire will compensate for the loss of ethnically and politically alien Karabakh."14 It is no secret that in the context of preparations for a possible war with Iran, the American brain trusts are carefully studying the "Azeri card" (Michel Chossudovsky, independent Canadian policy researcher, has addressed the subject in his The Iran War Theater's "Northern Front": Azerbaijan and the US Sponsored War on Iran).15 It figures prominently in the command-post exercises imitating retaliation of Iran's aggression against Azerbaijan in 2013 (the year of the 200th anniversary of the Gulistan Peace Treaty).16 Success is directly related to the numerical strength of the Iranian Azeris—16 million according to the CIA — The World Factbook, 201017—or even up to 40 million, according to different sources.The exact figures are unknown: Iran does not reveal the details of its national and ethnic groups, which means that all assessments are based on indirect sources.18 Figures live their own lives: the revived issue of the "divided" Azeri nation and the almost fantastical idea of a 30-to-40-million-strong Azerbaijan caused quite a storm amid Western, Russian, Armenian, and other geostrategists busy calculating the pros and cons of this basically "overseas project." "The Azeri local crisis might provide the key to the reconstruction of the American Greater Middle East and to a possible Iranian war. Iranian Azerbaijan covers a territory with a population 2 or 3 times larger than in independent Azerbaijan. Any political transformations there—a stronger nationalist movement or its cruel repression by the Iranians in the course of a war—will inevitably echo in Baku. On the other hand, the war on Iran will transform Azerbaijan into a key military transportation corridor between the American and NATO troops in Afghanistan and Central Asia and the metropolitan country."19 Zardusht Alizade of Azerbaijan thinks differently: "There is no threat of ethnic disintegration for Iran; everything being said about Iran's disintegration and the unification between Southern and Northern Azerbaijan does not hold water."20 The second geopolitical project, suggested by the Institute of the CIS, can be described as Russian; it proceeds from three basic assumptions: Baku declines an invitation to join NATO and is recompensed 14

[http://www.apn.ru/publications/articlel255.htm], 20 January, 2005. See: M. Chossudovsky, "The Iran War Theater"s 'Northern Front': Azerbaijan and the US Sponsored War on Iran," available at [http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php&rurl], 16 See: "Baku grozit voina s Tegeranom, Vashington obeshchaet podderzhku," available at [http://www.nregion.com/ news.php?i=21347], 3March, 2008. 17 [https://www.cia.gov/Iibrary/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html], 4 March, 2010. 18 , See: F. Alekperli, "Azerbaidzhan I tiurkskiy mir” available at [http7/www.zerkalo.az/2009-ll-21/politics/4828 19 » Ihttp'//www.centrasia.ru/newsA.php?st=1268636040],12 March 2010. 20 [ http]/www.echo-az.com/politica01.shtml]. 15

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with seven so-far occupied districts. "If Baku sticks to the rules of the game and does not rock the Caucasian boat Moscow might, at some time in future, reward it with the Marneuli District of Georgia in exchange for Nagorno-Karabakh."21 No commentary is needed. It seems that global and regional geopolitical developments notwithstanding, we should avoid extremes of the "Greater Azerbaijan" or "Azerbaijan—the Heart of Eurasia" type. Strength is not based on population size (otherwise the Arabs would have defeated Israel), but on the extent to which the people living in one state are aware of their unity with it. To quote Cicero, people are tied together by shared acceptance of laws and common interests. Conclusions. The positive side: the hypothetical possibility of achieving a fragmentary or total continuity of the Azeri ethnic field as a single ethnosocial organism. The negative side: there is the threat that the national secular development model might be re¬placed with a religious fundamentalist one with unpredictable consequences and a civil war. The strategy involved: it boils down to a wait-and-see policy which will inevitably make Azerbaijan part of all sorts of geopolitical combinations of the leading world players fraught with a chain of local conflicts. Scenario 3 - "Integration of Azerbaijan" Today, there are three more or less clear integration trends: —The Euro-Atlantic (the U.S., Europe)—through the European Union and NATO; —The Eurasian (Russia, China)—through the EurAsEC, SCO, and CSTO; —The Turkic-Islamic (Turkey, Iran)—through the OIC. Euro-Atlantic integration is high on the list of priorities. The National Security Concept of the Republic of Azerbaijan says in Para 4.1.2: "Integration into the European and Euro-Atlantic political, security, economic, and other institutions constitutes the strategic goal of the Republic of Azerbaijan."22 We should bear in mind, however, that the obvious advantages are balanced out by unacceptable limitations of Azerbaijan's national sovereignty, in particular: —The primacy of the right to self-identification over the principle of border immutability; —The primacy of European laws over domestic legislation; —Appearance of NATO military bases in national territory. We should ask ourselves whether we are prepared to accept the above. On the other hand, it remains to be seen whether the European structures are ready for equal cooperation with Azerbaijan. Eurasian integration. Some of the Soviet successor-states regard it as inevitable due to the increased political and economic weight of Russia and China. The media are brimming with predictions of a revived Soviet Union and of China swallowing up Central Asia. This means that the state cannot be too cautious when choosing its integration vector—and its future. The Turkic-Iranian integration choice is being heated up by the talks about Turkic and Islamic solidarity. Today, however, the somewhat haphazard efforts of the Turkic leaders to blend the two principles, combined with the foreign policy course aimed at a "zero level of problems" with neighbors, are creating new problems. The optimism of those who, on the whole, favor this choice is somewhat dampened by the power legitimacy crisis in Iran. Both Turkey and Iran are using integration slogans to realize their own ideas about the region's future. Indeed, they may push their disagreements aside to resolve their Kurdish problem at the expense of Azerbaijan, even if this is hardly realizable. Conclusions. The positive side: once part of a larger integration structure, the country will accelerate its social and economic development and speed up its modernization.

21

[http://br.az/index.php?newsid= 1195]. "The National Security Conception of the Azerbaijan Republic. 23 May, 2007," available at [http://www.mns. gov.az/download/Milli_Tehlukesizlik_Konsepsiyasi.pdf] (in Azeri). 22

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The negative side: integration will threaten the Azeris' ethnic and cultural identity; there will be inevitable ethnic transformations that will change their ethnic self-awareness and ethnic identity. The strategy involved: planting alien normative values in people's minds. All the strategies have both positive and negative sides; here I put on the table another, normative, scenario. Scenario 4New Regionalism I have written above that the Caucasian region badly needs a successful model of regional security and political and economic cooperation. So far, all the initiatives in this sphere have failed, probably because they never offered a higher type of cooperation. Indeed, the nationalities that belong to the Caucasian civilization can and should live together; they should not try to join the bandwagon of globalization (very alien to them in terms of mentality, culture, and values), but should try to organize a train of their own. According to Eldar Ismailov, prominent Azeri expert in Caucasian studies: "At the beginning of the 21st century, the principles, forms, and methods of new regionalism in the Caucasus should be largely determined based on joint use of the economic potential of the Central Caucasian and Central Asian countries and their transportation-communication networks in the system of world economic relations. In this way, the Central Caucasus, after becoming a fundamental component of a single and integrated Central Eurasian region, will be able to fully perform its geo-economic function, which, in turn, will promote the creation of favorable conditions for dynamic growth of the economy and national prosperity in the region's countries."23 It is more or less widely believed that a single Caucasian ethnosocial structure can draw upon what has already been achieved: Azerbaijan as the "economic heart" complete with the arteries of the Transcaucasian pipelines, etc. This alliance (the Caucasian Union) cannot and should not ape the European Union for obvious reasons; its functional capabilities bring it closer to the structures of the MERCOSUR and NAFTA type. More than that: it should become a community, the security of which rests on mutual trust and the non-use of force in the event of disagreements. Strange as it may seem today, it is suggested that a South Caucasian Confederation should be set up with the right of property ensured across its entire territory undivided by state borders.24 Today, this looks like another Utopia for the simple reason that the memories of past troubles and the geography of state borders will persist for a long time to come. On the other hand, relations between France and Germany were likewise burdened with memories of the past, but they were nevertheless able in 1951, by exerting their political will, to lay the foundations of European integration. This means that we should continue our theoretical and applied studies of regional integration institutions and projects. Conclusion To sum up the above, I would like to draw on French geopolitician Yves Lacoste, who identifies at least three factors conducive to state rivalry in any geographic zone: —Their involvement in international exchange; —The presence of vitally important resources; —The symbolic significance of certain places.25 This fits Azerbaijan to perfection, which means that the above scenarios should not be viewed as purely theoretical possibilities of wider political decision-making. They help us to arrive at an adequate appraisal of the country's strategic priorities of its ethnopolitical security. Central Asia and the Caucasus.-2010.-Volume 11.-Issue 2.-P.88-95. 23

E. Ismailov, "New Regionalism in the Caucasus: A Conceptual Approach," The Caucasus & Globalization, Vol. 1 (1), 2006, p. 25. 24 [http://www.rosbalt.ru/2010/02/26/715935.html], 26 February, 2010. 25 See: Ph. Moreau Defarges, Vvedenie v geopolitiku, Konkord, Moscow, 1994, pp. 67-69.

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Walking a tightrope: Azerbaijan’s foreign policy strategy in a changing environment Elmar Mammadyarov Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan Existing theories on small state26 foreign policy predict that domestic and international constraints limit to a considerable extent their foreign policy options, forcing them to concentrate on their physical security and to focus on regional issues. If applied in the context of Azerbaijan, which can be classified as a small state, the theory would expect Azerbaijan to pursue a rather modest foreign policy with a neutral position on many international and regional issues. The military aggression of neighboring Armenia, internal political instability, economic hardships and other challenges, which marred the early years of Azerbaijan’s independence, further exacerbated international and domestic constraints on its foreign policy and would be expected to force the country to bandwagon with more powerful states or to seek membership in collective defence blocs at a price of surrendering at least part of its sovereignty to provide for its security. The emerging pattern of the foreign policy of Azerbaijan, however, reveals considerable activism in its foreign policy behaviour. Despite the domestic problems and external pressures, after the election of Heydar Aliyev as President in 1993, Azerbaijan was successful in implementing its strategic path aimed at consolidating its sovereignty and political independence, which are prerequisites for the sustainable development of the country and prosperity of its people. Today, Azerbaijan is a rapidly developing young democracy with the fastest growing economy in the world and a stable political system. Azerbaijan instrumentally uses its economic and political assets with a view to the realization of its national interests and consolidating its global and regional position. In order to understand the risks and challenges for Azerbaijan we must take a look at some influential factors. Factors Affecting the Foreign Policy Choices of Azerbaijan The global processes, the aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan, the strategic geographic location on the Black Sea-Caspian Sea isthmus, ample natural resources, as well as contemporary security threats and risks can be listed as the key factors shaping the foreign policy options and having an impact upon the strategic choices of Azerbaijan. Global processes Since Azerbaijan regained its independence in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the whole international relations system has undergone dramatic changes. First of all, the very structure of the international relations system has changed. Non-state actors such as international organizations, NGO’s, trans-national corporations and other entities have started to play an increasingly active role in world politics and to influence decisions with global reach. In addition, the process of globalization and the rapid development of information technologies have become factors that affect and most probably will continue to affect international relations for decades to come. They have changed the whole notion of internal affairs; it is now almost impossible to stay out of touch. The global economic and social integration processes have created opportunities, while persisting economic disparities between the developed and developing countries may generate tensions and conflicts. Among the key issues of contemporary world affairs – global warming and food security - heavily influence foreign policy agendas. Small nations, affected by these two issues, can not effectively deal with them without concerted international efforts, which in its turn require an effective international system.

26

No satisfactory definition of a “small state” has been developed yet. However, almost all existing definitions mention the small size of the territory, population and the relative economic and political power as distinctive features of a “small state”.

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Returning to traditional international affairs, the past decades indicate that the system is still intrinsically competitive. States are pursuing divergent and at times conflicting foreign policy goals. The on-going theoretical debates about the structure of the post-Cold War world order lead to different interpretations of the change in international politics, which influence to a large extent the behavior of states. Polarized perceptions of the contemporary world manifested in juxtaposition of the “bipolarity” and “multi-polarity” concepts have revitalized competition for political and economic influence in different parts of the world. This competition, if sustained, will have negative repercussions on the global and regional security environment. Aggression of Armenia The ambiguous reaction of the international community to either secessionist or irredentist claims while addressing regional crises and conflicts also contributes to the growing perception of notorious double standards in international politics and the existence of a selective approach to the application of the generally accepted norms and principles of international law. These alarming trends will serve to generate mutual suspicion and mistrust, reinforcing perceptions of the centrality of military strength in international relations and revitalizing the old-style balance- of-power concept in world politics. There is no room for the alien international law policies of soft partition and other similar practices. Developments of the last decade indicate that the termination of the East-West bloc confrontation after the end of the Cold War did not fulfill the promise of making the international system more stable. The aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan, including military occupation and notorious ethnic cleansing of the vast part of the country, indicates that the illegal use of force for the acquisition of lands have not been removed from the context of international relations. The military invasion by Armenia remains the major determinant of the country's security environment and is a key factor affecting the formulation of our foreign and security policy. Strategic geographic location and natural resources Azerbaijan’s geographic location is strategic in many senses. It is in the middle between Europe, Russia, larger Central Asia and the greater Middle East. This offers not only many advantages and no less challenges, but also tremendous opportunities to benefit from the former and tackle the latter. The position of the country at the intersection of the major trade routes along the emerging East-West and North-South transport and energy corridors provide an important asset to turn the country into an energy and infrastructure hub. At the same time, transnational crime, trafficking of all kinds, terrorism and WMD proliferation are issues which pose serious dangers. To address such issues carefully is crucial for ensuring a central role for the country. The rich natural resources of Azerbaijan not only open perspectives for the country's prosperity and national welfare, but also constitute a valuable asset strengthening national security, political independence and sovereignty of Azerbaijan. Exploration and transportation to world markets of the vast hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian Sea became a key element of what later became known as Azerbaijan’s oil strategy, which was a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy designed by the national leader Heydar Aliyev and consistently implemented by President Ilham Aliyev. The complex nature of the contemporary threats and risks The activities of such non-state actors on the international arena as international terrorist groups, militant separatist movements and ethnic and religious extremism, organized crime networks as well as illegal migration, drug and human trafficking, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the risk of sabotage on critical energy and transport infrastructure and the more recent phenomenon - cyber attacks affect the global and regional security environment. These challenges, commonly referred to as the “new threats”, require adjusting foreign policy concepts and tools with a view to eliminating these threats and risks and minimizing their negative impact on the overall security of Azerbaijan. There is a common understanding that 21st century international affairs will be conducted under the heavy impact of the 9/11 attacks.

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On-going protracted regional conflicts in the immediate neighborhood and elsewhere have a spillover potential, harm international and regional security and stability and slow down the economic and social development of the regional countries. Responsibility The history of Azerbaijan is by and large the history of the battle between different regional powers and a constant struggle for real independence. This “heritage” requires Azerbaijan to be an active and responsible member of the international community in order to contribute to the strengthening of international mechanisms, which would ensure sovereignty and the rights of small nations. This responsibility also takes its roots from the very nature of Azerbaijan, which has always been a place of coexistence and tolerance between different faiths, ethnic groups and philosophies. It is rather an exception nowadays, especially in our region. Therefore, we feel responsible for the promotion of these values for the good of the international community. Foreign Policy Guidelines and Priorities During the 3rd conference of the heads of Azerbaijani diplomatic missions on July 7, 2008, the President of Azerbaijan H.E. Mr. Ilham Aliyev has said that “…Our foreign policy tactics should be proactive….” Azerbaijan pursues an independent foreign policy based on the principle of sovereign equality of all states engaging in the international relations system regardless of their size, military power and economic might. Transparency and predictability are the key features of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. Azerbaijan has a keen interest in fostering peaceful coexistence and a good neighborhood in its region and beyond by developing friendly, mutually advantageous bilateral and multilateral relations with all countries. Our country conducts its foreign policy based on the norms and principles of international law, which is a cornerstone of the existing international security system. Respecting the sovereignty, territorial integrity of all states and non-interference in their internal affairs are the guiding principles of Azerbaijan’s interaction with other countries. Restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity The settlement of the conflict with Armenia stands out as the immediate security concern and remains a number one priority of our foreign policy. Azerbaijan’s conflict settlement position has remained unchanged from the first days of the talks. We see no other way but withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from all the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, restoration of the sovereign rights of Azerbaijan in these territories, return of the forcibly displaced population to their places of origin, establishment of conditions for restoring the communications and socio-economic growth of the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan in the framework of the overall economic development of the country and elaboration within the framework of a lawful and democratic process, which would ensure the peaceful coexistence of the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and its autonomy within the Republic of Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh’s self-determination is possible only after the return of ethnically cleansed Azerbaijanis and only within Azerbaijan. Furthermore, Azerbaijan will never, under any circumstances, negotiate its territorial integrity. This point should be very clear to all parties. The legal and political grounds for the settlement of the conflict are based upon the norms and principles of international law as reflected in the UN Charter, Helsinki Final Act, the United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions 822, 853, 874, and 884, resolution A/RES/62/243 of the UN General Assembly adopted in 2008, as well as the appropriate documents and decisions of the OSCE and the Council of Europe. All these documents affirm the sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is committed to the peaceful settlement in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. However, the success of the peace process depends on a similar commitment and constructive approach on the part of Armenia, as well as on the active contribution of all OSCE member states, especially those represented in the Minsk Group and its Co-Chairmen. Azerbaijan will continue working with its partners 37


and global and regional international organizations with a view to boost the mediation efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group and mobilizing support for the just and lasting settlement of the conflict on the basis of norms and principles of international law. Promotion of international peace and stability Both traditional and new threats and challenges require active international efforts to solve and they can not be eliminated unilaterally. Azerbaijan is actively engaged in international cooperation within multilateral fora and bilaterally on fighting international terrorism and WMD proliferation. As a party to all international legal documents against terrorism, our country constantly shares information and provides required reports and our peacekeepers stand shoulder-to-shoulder with other responsible members of international community in fighting terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Iraq. Participation in international peace operations also assists in bringing stability to the regions. Assistance and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan by Azerbaijani government and companies create opportunities for an otherwise desperate population. Azerbaijan tackles non-proliferation both in the framework of the NPT (Non- Proliferation Treaty) and in cooperation with other countries through export control and border security arrangements. Azerbaijan stands for the strengthening of the international non-proliferation regime and will continue to cooperate with the world community and the relevant organizations for the imposition of adequate controls. Fighting transnational crime and trafficking is on the agenda of our relations with regional countries and within other frameworks, including the UN, OSCE and other international organizations. The link between stability in the South Caucasus and international security in general is obvious. The unresolved, protracted conflicts in the South Caucasus is of particular concern for regional countries and for the international community at large, because it undermines regional security and stability, hinders economic and political development of the regional countries and prevents genuine regional cooperation. The Promotion of an effective multilateral international relations system Proceeding from the firm belief that international peace can be best achieved through an effective multilateral international relations system, Azerbaijan acknowledges the indispensable role of the United Nations in maintaining international peace and security in general and in our part of the world in particular. The norms and principles of international law enshrined in the United Nations Charter constitute a cornerstone of the existing international security system. Azerbaijan supports the reforms within the United Nations system aimed at increasing its operational capabilities, including strengthening the international law system and enforcing the adopted decisions with a view to responding more effectively to the challenges and threats of the 21st century. Cooperation with the OSCE takes a prominent place in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan. The OSCE Helsinki Final Act and other documents set the norms and principles regulating the relations between the countries on the European continent and provide the basis for maintaining collective security. As with the United Nations, the OSCE needs to increase its efficacy through the delivery of tangible results based on its overarching documents and mechanisms. Azerbaijan deems regional multilateral cooperation as very important, and as a founding father of GUAM we contribute to better and more stable regional affairs. Azerbaijan’s unique nature of belonging to both European and Muslim cultures presents opportunities to play an important role to overcome ignorance and intolerance. As chairman of the Islamic Conference of Foreign Ministers last year, Azerbaijan spared no effort to further strengthen the Organization of Islamic Conference’s (OIC) structures and functions and to create cooperation mechanisms with European organizations. Azerbaijan actively contributes to the dialogue among civilizations and was amongst the first countries to contribute to this cause. It is noteworthy to mention that the efforts of Azerbaijan are led by First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva. Moreover, three major international events on intercultural dialogue were organized in Baku with the involvement of major thinkers and practitioners. The Development of good and mutually advantageous bilateral relations 38


Azerbaijan views regional cooperation as an indispensable factor for maintaining peace and stability in the region and has established mutually advantageous friendly relations with its immediate neighbors, except Armenia, for the abovementioned reasons. Further development of relations with neighboring countries will allow finding mutually acceptable solutions to the outstanding regional problems. A trilateral strategic partnership and deepening cooperation between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey has developed into a factor of stability in the region. Relations with Russia have reached the level of strategic partnership and continue to expand. Azerbaijan conducts its dialogue with Iran in a progressive and forward looking manner and is developing its relations with the Central Asian states in an effort to bridge the Caspian Sea and the region with Europe. The global nature of contemporary threats, as well as the globalization of the world market and the growing interdependence between states have created additional incentives for Azerbaijan to engage in cooperation with countries beyond its immediate neighborhood. Azerbaijan cooperates with the USA, its strategic partner, in bilateral and multilateral formats aimed at combating global challenges and threats emanating from international terrorism, separatism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, trans-national organized crime, illegal drug, arms and human trafficking and other threats. Azerbaijan is a part of the US-led anti-terror coalition, fully supports the combat of the international community against terrorism and undertook a number of significant steps to that end. We are also working on expansion of our cooperation with the USA in the economic sphere, energy security and promotion of democratic development. Geographically located at the crossroads of the West and East, Azerbaijan provides a natural outlet for the goods and services of the European countries to the rapidly growing Asian markets and vice versa. In this context, relations with the Middle Eastern and Asian countries occupy an important place in the foreign policy of Azerbaijan. These regions with emerging political power centers and rapidly growing economies open prospects of mutually beneficial cooperation in economic, telecommunications and other spheres. Integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures Azerbaijan shares values with the European and Euro-Atlantic community, and developing TransAtlantic multilateral security cooperation schemes contributes to the security and stability of the European continent and beyond. Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to join NATO's "Partnership for Peace" program in 1994 and fully utilizes available partnership mechanisms with NATO through the EuroAtlantic Partnership Council and other instruments. Azerbaijan has successfully completed the first cycle of the Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) and has just started to implement the second IPAP cycle, which will guide NATO-Azerbaijan relations for the years to come. Azerbaijan’s cooperation with the EU goes beyond the country’s security needs and expands into economic, political and social spheres. The EUAzerbaijan Action Plan adopted in 2006 within the “European Neighborhood Policy” strengthens political dialogue between Azerbaijan and the EU, develops cooperation in the sphere of political, economic and institutional reforms and creates the basis for raising cooperation to a qualitatively new level. Implementation of the EU-Azerbaijan Action Plan will help further reinforce the political and economic interdependence between the EU and Azerbaijan. We welcome the Polish- Swedish initiative on Eastern partnership and expect it to provide a serious boost to our cooperation with the EU. Cooperation with the EU in the effective implementation of the domestic political, economic and institutional reforms, advancing the progress of Azerbaijani legislation, norms and standards to those of the European Union will also contribute to sustainable economic development by attracting foreign investments into non-oil sectors of the Azerbaijani economy and will enhance trade, investment and growth. Sustainable development and development of the Eurasian energy and transport corridor The development of the oil sector of Azerbaijan, including the construction of oil and gas pipelines and other relevant infrastructure, already contribute to the development of the economy of Azerbaijan and generate additional incentives for regional cooperation. This cooperation, resulting in successful implementation of the regional infrastructure projects such as Baku-Supsa, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan export oil pipelines and South Caucasus gas pipeline has increased the importance of the South Caucasus region, 39


contributed to European and global energy security and laid the foundations for a new, vital and secure energy source for Europe. Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon resources coupled with the strategic geographic location transform the country into an important energy source and an integral part of the international energy supply system. Azerbaijan is increasingly viewed as a pivotal player in the region and an important actor beyond the region. The location of the country creates opportunities to diversify Azerbaijan’s access to world markets. The development of the international transportation and communication corridors through the South Caucasus region and the strengthening of the transit capabilities of Azerbaijan are key elements of the strategy aimed at the diversification of our economy and the growth of non-oil sectors. In this context, Azerbaijan is actively engaged in implementation of the “Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia” (TRACECA) project as well as the North-South transport corridor. Azerbaijan is also cooperating with Turkey and Georgia in promoting the geo-strategically important Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway link project, realization of which will be an important step in fostering and expanding regional cooperation and at the same time will create new regional opportunities with global impact. The international environment, characterized by the competition for markets and foreign investments as well as the need to engage in existing international commercial networks, with a view to coordinating fiscal and monetary policies, requires pursuing an active foreign economic policy. Azerbaijan is interested in developing relations with regional and non-regional countries to ensure unimpeded access for domestic products to international markets. Azerbaijan’s philosophy on economic development is simple – prosperity of neighbors is mutually beneficial. Conclusion As President Ilham Aliyev stated at a recent conference of the heads of diplomatic missions, our foreign policy has been successful in all aspects and our success will continue into the future. The foreign policy strategy of Azerbaijan over the past seventeen years of independence proved to be successful because the country not only adapted to the constantly shifting international environment, but also managed to generate global influence so as to transform the country into the regional leader. The prominent feature of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is a delicate balance between the multivectored proactive foreign policy strategy aimed at realization of its national interests, strengthening its independence and sovereignty, restoration of territorial integrity, as well as the flexibility allowing it to find a modus vivendi with regional and non-regional actors which pursue their own, sometimes divergent, policies. Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.17-26.

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Keeping energy options open Azerbaijan has a key role to play in energy supply to Europe In the past year four major events have impacted on Azerbaijan’s energy policy: the ongoing global economic slowdown, the drop in energy prices, uncertainty in the transportation solution for its vast gas resources and the fact that the country has reached a significant level of oil and gas production and turned into a serious oil and gas exporter. As a result, the country’s already complex energy policy has been further complicated as it seeks to remain on good terms with both Western consumers and, its giant neighbour, Russia. At the annual oil and gas conference held in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku in April, Industry and Energy Minister Natik Aliyev confirmed that Azerbaijan is pressing for access to European markets as the main export destination for Azerbaijani gas. Mr. Aliyev also said that the country has the resources to keep both Russia and Europe supplied, but that doing so depends on setting up an effective energy corridor from the Caspian region. Which is why Mr. Aliyev has been busy talking with representatives from many countries including Turkey, Iran, Russia, Greece and Italy, looking for the best conditions to get his country’s gas out into the international market. In its bid to keep two competing power blocs happy, Azerbaijan sees that the solution is multiple oil and gas pipelines. The president of the country’s state-run oil company SOCAR, Mr. R. Abdullayev, says that Azerbaijan needs an effective transport corridor to deliver gas to Europe, which is key to the investment decision required to extract more of its proven gas reserves. “The two issues – increasing production and delivering gas to markets – are inter-independent, because if we have no way to transport the gas we can’t increase production,” he said in June. At present Azerbaijan possesses four export gas pipelines, running through its neighbours Georgia, Iran, and Russia. A major gas player Though Azerbaijan has significant oil deposits, analysts say that in the future this country will also become a major supplier of natural gas. Azerbaijan and the international consortium signed the contract on the Shah Deniz project back in 1996 in the expectation of a large oil find, instead of which a giant deposit of natural gas and condensate was discovered. The field’s recoverable gas reserves are estimated to be at least at 1.2 trillion cubic metres. The consortium includes BP (as project operator) and Norway’s StatoilHydro with stakes of 25.5 per cent each; Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company, the Russian Lukoil, the National Iranian Oil Company, and Total of France, with 10 per cent each; and Turkish Petroleum with 9 per cent. A separate consortium with an identical structure owns and operates the dedicated export pipeline from the field via Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey (South Caucasus Pipeline), with BP as technical operator and StatoilHydro as commercial operator. Phase one of commercial production at Shah Deniz started in 2007 and jumped to 8.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2008, but is expected to grow only slightly to 9 bcm in 2009. Of this amount, 6.6 bcm are due for export annually through the Baku-TbilisiErzurum pipeline to Turkey, 0.8 bcm will be supplied to Georgia. Phase two of production at Shah Deniz is expected to reach 20 bcm in the plateau years, now deferred until 2016. Azerbaijan is already producing 27 bcm annually and expects that figure to reach 30 bcm this year. It currently exports gas to four countries, with Russia about to become the fifth. As the West switches powering its electricity generating plants from coal to natural gas, SOCAR can offer Europe an alternative to traditional suppliers, among which Russia is currently the most important. Despite Russia’s assurances that its motives are business driven, many nations in Europe and the region want to secure alternative supplies and energy sources. A role that Azerbaijan, now no longer landlocked, is perfectly placed to carry out. Pipeline decisions A deal has been imminent on getting Nabucco started for the last two years, but so far work has not begun on the proposed 2,050-miles Nabucco pipeline route from the Turkish border with Georgia through Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary to Austria. The estimated cost is now put at US$12 billion. Work was due to begin last year. When, and if, it is up and running, Nabucco would have a maximum capacity of 31 41


bcm a year. The consortium behind the project now comprises six national energy companies: Botas (Turkey), Bulgargaz (Bulgaria), Transgaz (Romania), MOL (Hungary), OMV (Austria), and RWE (Germany). Current plans call for an initial 8 bcm of gas annually from Azerbaijan for Nabucco, an amount that should increase to 31 bcm as other regional suppliers join up. Will Nabucco ever happen? The Nabucco project has gained fresh impetus in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine gas standoff, which cut supplies to much of Europe for nearly two weeks earlier this year. The EU currently imports about a quarter of the gas that it needs from Russia via Ukrainian pipelines. “We need to learn the lessons of the recent gas crisis and invest heavily in energy,” European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in Brussels in February. EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs said at the time that all the preconditions were now in place so that in 2015 gas will reach Europe via Turkey from the Middle East and from the Caspian. Mr. Piebalgs added that pursuing the project does not rule out the realisation of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline project. In addition to new pipelines, Europe must boost gasstorage capacity and improve its own pipeline connections to increase energy security, he added. But a gas supply agreement reached at the end of June between Azerbaijan and Russia has underlined again the requirement for the timely construction of Nabucco. The deal to start the flow of Azerbaijani gas to Russia in January 2010 represents a breakthrough at a time when Moscow and the European Union are courting Baku in hope of tapping its vast gas deposits to fuel their respective pipeline projects to Europe. SOCAR and Gazprom signed on the 29th June general terms and conditions for the contract to buy gas from Azerbaijan. The agreement came during a state visit by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Baku. The five-year deal would allow Azerbaijan to export at least 500 million cubic metres of gas annually beginning in 2010. Although the volumes under the deal are modest, the deal in itself is important in that it demonstrates Russia’s intent to buy further volumes of Azerbaijani gas, which could then be used to pump via the proposed South Stream pipeline, while the supply agreement also indicates that Azerbaijan has other gas export options in the context of the ongoing discussions with Turkey over gas prices, transit terms, and future supplies. The contract can be seen as another effort by Russia to expand its grip on European energy resources. EU countries currently receive a large portion of their energy resources from Russia with approximately 20 per cent of exports running via pipelines in the Ukraine. While no details were disclosed about the price during the signing ceremony, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev told reporters in Baku that “Cooperation will be successful and mutually beneficial, which will fully ensure the interests of Azerbaijan and Russia,” At the same time SOCAR officials point out that there is no “preferred buyer” for its gas. The talks are being continued with potential buyers and all proposals are being considered. But the EU hopes that the Nabucco pipeline will still be in time to tap into the second phase of Shah Deniz. At the earliest, Nabucco would not be finished until 2015. Azerbaijan is still being positive about Nabucco. “This pipeline would be of strategic importance not only to Azerbaijan, but to the other newly independent states as well”, says SOCAR’s Vice-president Elshad Nassirov. “This is a reliable way to the world’s markets.” Analysts say that Baku has enough gas to sell to Russia and the EU, but that Brussels needs to start pushing forward with talks on Nabucco and feeding it through the gas of the Shah Deniz field. Azerbaijan has also been talking to Iran about gas sales. In January Tehran proposed buying all of the gas produced from the phase two development of Shah Deniz. The Iranian proposal would provide for Iran’s own natural gas security from Shah Deniz’s second phase while undercutting Gazprom’s efforts to buy up all future Caspian and Azeri natural gas production. If Iran, who is also considered as a potential supplier to Nabucco will join it, it will potentially get access to advanced Western technology to begin bringing its own massively underdeveloped gas fields online. This might also sidestep Washington’s sanctions, as it represents Iranian foreign investment into a trusted Western energy partner rather than Western companies entering the Islamic Republic’s market. Natural gas originating from Iraq is also considered as one of the resources for Nabucco. Other options 42


That said, Nabucco is not the only gas pipeline option for Europe. The launch in November 2007 of a new pipeline between Turkey and Greece was a historic event, but one that went largely unreported in the European media. The 300 kilometre-long natural gas pipeline carrying Azerbaijani gas through Greece to Italy via the Adriatic Sea is the first time Caspian gas has reached the continent without going through Russia. The achievement sent a message to the Caspian states that they need not depend solely on Russia to export their hydrocarbon resources to Europe or to meet their energy needs. The Turkish-Greek pipeline, dubbed the “South European Gas Ring Project,” is part of a complex network of pipelines and proposed pipelines to carry gas and oil from the Caspian and Central Asia to the markets of Europe and the world via the Caucasus’s and Turkey. Landlocked Turkmenistan also has huge resources of natural gas and no access to world markets. As a result, it sells its gas for a price lower than the international market price through Russian pipelines. At the same time Turkmenistan has the opportunity to send part of its vast gas reserves through the BakuTbilisi- Erzerum (BTE) delivering gas from the Shah-Deniz field. Meanwhile, BTE has significantly reduced Georgia’s energy dependence on Russia. Georgia has also proposed the construction of a 700 km gas pipeline under the Black Sea to connect Georgia to the Ukraine, and therefore Europe, bypassing Russia. Kazakhstan might also be interested in joining the BTE via an underwater gas pipeline that would link Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan under the Caspian Sea. In late 2006, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipeline, also known as the South Caucasus Pipeline, began transporting gas from the Shah-Deniz field to the eastern Turkish city of Erzerum. The first aim of the pipeline is to supply gas to Turkey and Georgia. As a transit country, Georgia has rights to take 5 per cent of the annual gas flow through the pipeline in lieu of tariff sand can purchase a further 0.5 bcm of gas a year at a discounted price. The South Caucasus Pipeline could also supply Europe with Caspian natural gas through the planned Nabucco, Turkey-Greece, and Greece- Italy pipelines. Oil exports Azerbaijan decided almost a decade ago to construct a US$4 billion pipeline from Baku via Tbilisi to Turkey’s Mediterranean deep-water port of Ceyhan, dubbed the BTC pipeline. The BTC consortium, which is responsible for the construction and management of the pipeline, is led by BP. In 2005, oil began to flow into the 1,768 km pipeline, and by early 2006 the BTC-pipeline, designed for 1 million barrels a day - equivalent to 1.3 per cent of world demand, became fully operational. Kazakhstan, the region’s other oil giant, has signed a deal to pump five million tons of oil a year through the BTC, a figure that would eventually rise to 60 million tonnes. “Our goal is to maximise the capacity of BTC by attracting regional oil output for export through the pipeline,” says Natik Aliyev, Minister of Industry and Energy. He brushes off accusations that Baku was playing at regional power politics by deciding to go west rather than through Russia. “The route through Turkey was an entirely commercial decision,” says SOCAR vice president Elshad Nassirov about the BTC. “Contrary to what many commentators say, there were no political considerations. Mr Nassirov says that the BTC is not competing with the Russian pipelines but enhances the existing network. But he also points out: “BTC is the only non-OPEC, non-Russian, and non-Middle Eastern pipeline in the region.” Eventually, the BTC pipeline could meet 25 per cent of world demand growth. Mr Natik Aliyev says that Azerbaijan will continue to use existing routes as well as the BTC for the time being: “It would be untimely to discard Baku- Novorossiysk pipeline as one of the variants of our export diversification process. This pipeline is often referred to as the northern route, which exports roughly 40,000 bbl/d of SOCAR oil via Russia to the Black Sea. Mr Aliyev adds that the other pipeline to the Georgian port of Supsa is still one of the most effective routes for oil transportation. “This is our cheap access to the Black Sea basin”, he says. The Azerbaijan International Oil Consortium only exports oil produced from ACG field via the pipeline from Baku to the Georgian port of Supsa (Western Route), through rails to the Georgian port of Batumi and through the BTC to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. SOCAR is also using its own Terminal at Kulevi on the Georgian Black Sea coast. In November 2007, the leaders of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey inaugurated the construction of a US$600 million regional railway line that will run alongside the BTC oil pipeline and the Baku-TbilisiErzurum gas pipeline. The Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi- Baku railway is the third major regional project 43


resulting from the three countries’ cooperation. It is the region’s first major project not directly related to energy, and, like its predecessors, it bypasses Armenia. Azerbaijani Industry and Energy Minister Natik Aliyev says the project will bring stability and cooperation to the region along with billions of dollars in revenue. “The railway will ensure the uninterrupted transport of passengers and freight. It is expected to lead to further development of the Europe-Caucasus- Asia transport corridor within the reconstruction of the ancient Great Silk Road,” he says. With Baku at the junction of the major North- South and West-East transport corridors, the launch of the railway could also benefit Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as well as China and India, which have expressed interest in future involvement in the project. At the same time, plans are being considered to extend the railway from Azerbaijan to the Iraqi city of Basra and then on to the countries of the Persian Gulf. There are also hopes that in the future the railway will extend from China in the east to Europe in the west via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Thus, Azerbaijan is set to continue playing the role of an energy transit corridor between Europe and China via Turkey, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia SOCAR: an energy industry is born The rebirth of Azerbaijan’s energy industry came with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and under the guidance of former president Heydar Aliyev. SOCAR, established in 1992 from the merger of the two state offshore and onshore oil production units, is the driving force behind the comeback of the Azerbaijani oil and gas industry. The company is the largest taxpayer in Azerbaijan and it the largest employer, with more than 60,000 employees. OCAR and its many subsidiaries are responsible for the production of oil and natural gas in Azerbaijan, for the operation of the country’s two refineries and gas processing plant, for running the country’s pipeline system (except the Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan pipeline), and for managing the country’s oil and natural gas imports and exports. As the country’s largest company, it also plays a key role in driving economic growth. Although government ministries handle exploration and production agreements with foreign companies, SOCAR is party to all of the international consortia developing new oil and gas projects in Azerbaijan. In 1994, Heydar Aliyev blessed the deal known as “The Contract of the Century”: the Azeri-ChiragGunashli (ACG) Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). Valued at US$10 billion of CAPEX, oil production under this PSA operated by the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), began in November 1997. “Former president Aliyev understood the need to establish solid investment guarantees, and as such, the PSAs are law: they cannot be changed by any future government,” points out SOCAR vice president Elshad Nassirov. President Aliyev also created a system of fair and transparent redistribution of oil revenues that has fuelled the country’s development. Azerbaijan had all the preconditions for turning its oil revenues into the foundation of a corrupt and monopolised system where groups in power would struggle for financial flows and would distribute them amongst each other. The then president avoided this by setting up the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) in 2000. Following the death of Heydar Aliyev, his son, President Ilham Aliyev continued this strategy of using the oil and gas money for the rapid transformation of Azerbaijan into well developed and prosperous country. The main recipients of oil revenues in the country are the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ), the State Budget, and SOCAR. Revenue also goes into the State Social Protection Fund and a number of state enterprises, banks, and other organisations. Azerbaijan is also a member of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI FIRST.-2009.-Autumn.-P.125-129.

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Azerbaijan’s foreign and security policy Dr. Rainer Freitag-Wirminghaus Senior Research Fellow German Institute for Middle East Studies Azerbaijan is part of the South Caucasus security complex. In this region all kinds of political decisions, strategies and alliances are interrelated to security questions. The unsolved conflicts have an enormous impact on internal politics just like on foreign policy strategies, whereas the actions of the conflict parties have to be seen in regard to the outside interference of the external powers. To a high degree the foreign and security policy of the South Caucasian states is a reaction to the interference and interests of great powers and regional powers. In principal, it has always been a balancing act between their own security requirements and the external interests. Nowhere else has the atmosphere of the cold war survived as it has in Azerbaijan. We find two camps of different securitypolitical orientations: on one side Armenia with a deep political, economic and military dependency on Russia and close relations to Iran, on the other side Georgia and Azerbaijan with advanced integration into NATO-programmes and close relations with Turkey. In simple terms the Euro-Atlantic security option stands for modernization and democratization, the Russian one for manipulation of conflicts. But as we will see one cannot speak of clearly distinguished axes; there are too many overlaps and contradictions. Nevertheless a strong American-Russian rivalry cannot be ignored. In the Caucasus the USA and NATO are considered as the representatives of western strategic and military interests, generally not very much distinguished from one another, while Europe is seen as engaged in development politics, but without strategic intentions. For some years Azerbaijan and Georgia were seen as a tandem in their pro-western orientation. Undoubtedly the biggest impact on Azerbaijani foreign policy in the last decade was made by the relationship with Washington. Azerbaijan’s Relations to the USA In principal Azerbaijan has no real alternative to its western orientation as far as security matters go. For financial reasons and for the protection of its oil exports through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC) it needs the USA as its strategic partner. Washington’s aims in the South Caucasus include the expansion of its strategic partnership with Georgia and Azerbaijan while trying to diminish Armenia’s dependence on Russia. Fostering political stability is related to ensuring energy exports through the BTC, to fighting against international terrorism and to make use of the geo-strategic situation of the region in view of Iran and Central Asia. In 1997 American strategic interests arose when the United States Government, with the help of American oil companies, realized the geo-strategic importance of the Caspian Sea basin and initiated a special strategy regarding the region. The United States launched a campaign stressing the strategic importance of the BTC route as part of the “Eurasian Transport Corridor” aiming towards diversification of supply and breaking Russia's monopoly over oil and gas transport routes. This cooperation was highly beneficial for both parties. After 11 September 2001 energy interests, though still strong, were no longer the priority in the US policy regarding Azerbaijan. The reasons for US military interests are driven by the demands of the global anti-terrorism fight. The goals are fostering regional stability and forging assistance in countering terrorism and especially maintaining access to the Caucasus air corridor, which is essential for the US engagement in Afghanistan. Azerbaijan has a special stand as an American-friendly Muslim state with a crucial geographical location. Baku supported Operation Enduring Freedom, granted Washington overflight rights and the use of its airbases and contributed troops to Afghanistan. It also sent a contingent of 150 soldiers to Iraq, which is the only peacekeeping troop there from a Muslim country. Because of Azerbaijan’s border with Iran its strategic value for Washington is even bigger than that of Georgia. The USA has not installed its radars in Georgia but in Azerbaijan. To accomplish its goals, the US military's European Command (EUCOM) has launched several initiatives, focusing both on the

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region as a whole and on Azerbaijan specifically. In 2002 both countries signed an Agreement on Military Cooperation27. Baku rejected US military bases, at least officially. In case of a potential American military attack on Iran it feared an Iranian answer bombing Azerbaijan, not to forget the fate of the millions of Azeris in Iran. A flow of migrants from Iran could swamp the country that still has the problem of 750,000 migrants from Karabakh. In order not to be regarded by Tehran as Washington’s henchman, the Azerbaijani leadership declared that in a case of an attack on Iran the neighbourly relations would have priority28. The Azerbaijani public does not question the cooperation with Washington, but the discontent with American politics has grown, particularly with its conflict management inside the Minsk group of the OSCE, the negotiator in the Karabakh conflict. Western pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey to compromise with Armenia is regarded with mistrust. People consider US-politics as rather pragmatic just trying to secure the oil pipeline, to push back Russian influence and to use Azerbaijan against Iran. In their eyes American geo-strategic interests have taken priority over the promoted values of good governance. Because of the war in Iraq approval of US politics has decreased though may be at a lower rate than in other countries. Today the majority of the population and the elites think that American military bases in the country would not be in Azerbaijan’s interest, first of all because they would not contribute to free the occupied regions around Karabakh. Generally people accuse Washington of a double standard thinking that Baku’s active role in the anti-terrorism coalition did not pay off29. A survey conducted among students in Baku and the leadership of opposition parties in late January 2008 showed that the consent to possible American bases has sharply decreased in recent years30. The allegation of American double standards has always strained the relationship. For years Section 907 of the American Freedom Support Act had prevented more support from the American side31. The US Congress had always granted more financial help to Armenia and supported Karabakh, though not officially recognized, with assistance. After 11 September 2001 Washington wanted to grant more military help to Azerbaijan, but this failed because of the influence of the Armenian lobby in Washington. In spite of all these problems in the relations with the United States and Azerbaijan’s cautiousness in advancing Washington’s military goals, the military cooperation is continuing to be intensified by Baku’s politics of close ties to NATO. Integration into NATO Structures Though fearing to get entrapped into the conflicts, in recent years NATO, too, has been more and more engaged in the South Caucasus. Integration into NATO structures stands not only for deepening military relations to the USA but is also a way of approaching Europe. At the Istanbul NATO Summit in 2004 the South Caucasus was proclaimed as one of the priority zones. According to the Special Representative of the NATO Secretary General in Central Asia and the South Caucasus Robert Simmons, NATO is even considering the possibility of providing protection of the Baku-Ceyhan oil-pipeline32. Since 1994 Azerbaijan has been a member of the Alliance's Partnership for Peace (PfP) program, which was designed to improve practical military cooperation and enable joint operations with NATO 27

2002.

Azerbaijan, USA Sign Agreement on Military Cooperation, BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom, 28 March

28

If the USA Invades Iran. Novruz Mammadov: “Azerbaijan will Give Priority to Neighbourly Relations”, Ekspress, Baku, in Azeri, 29 January 2005. 29

Rauf Mirqadirov, Political Elite's Attitude to USA Deteriorates, American Attempts to be on Both Sides at the Same Time Did not Succeed, Ayna, Zerkalo, Baku, 28 January 2004. 30 In June 2003 66% of the party leaders voted for US bases in Azerbaijan, in January 2004 after the presidential elections 52%, in January 2008 53% of the party leaders and 76.5 % of the students were against US bases. As the results indicate 46.5% students believed that the reason for bringing US troops into the country could be pressuring Iran, while 48.6% of the party leaders said that the security of Caspian oil and gas pipelines were the reason. Analysis of Survey: US military bases in Azerbaijan, Caucasian Security Development Project, Sponsored by Canada Fund, Canadian Embassy, Ankara, February 25, 2008. 31 Because of the Azerbaijani blockade of Armenia section 907 prohibited direct help to the Azerbaijani government. Only after 11 September did the Armenian lobby fail to prevent the waiver of the sanctions. 32 Mediamax, Armenian news agency. South Caucasus – Defense, Security & Conflicts Resolution. Weekly Review, 22.10.07-27.10.07. www.mediamax.am.

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peacekeeping and humanitarian missions. The PfP contributes to transparency in the military sector and to the implementation of strategic defense planning. In practice this means US military training programs under the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program, the Foreign Military Financing program and border security activities. An Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) is currently under implementation. While on the political and military level strongly cooperating with Turkey, both Georgia and Azerbaijan expressed their willingness to become a NATO-member in the long run, particularly in the days when their engagement with GUAM has been more intense than it is today. However, Tbilisi had always done this more emphatically. After the power-transfer of Heydar Aliyev to his son Ilham, Azerbaijan has postponed its ambitions of a NATO-membership that it had expressed years before. However, even Heydar Aliyev had never officially asked for membership out of respect for Russia, he preferred to ask for the status of a candidate through his foreign minister. Although Azerbaijan is moving closer towards NATO, whether membership is actually the longterm goal of the so called well-balanced policy is still an open question. Generally Baku is striving for integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, but what concrete steps need to be taken are not clear. Azerbaijani government representatives take a rather careful approach to this issue claiming that Azerbaijan is making real steps towards it but within the framework of its balanced foreign policy. But in general the leadership avoids public statements about this matter declaring that the ultimate goal is not membership but the process of reaching NATO standards. Baku is ambivalent about NATO. In addition, the NATO-leadership does not really know its real ambitions. Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov put it this way: “… joining NATO is not an end in itself, but simply one possible element of a country's security.”33 The wish for a normalization of Baku’s relationship to Russia and President Ilham Aliyev’s fear of a velvet revolution supported by Washington resulted in a position of a tactical political approach of “wait and see”. This reflects the basic problems of the South Caucasian states, which are not independent in their political decisions, their actions being determined by the imperative of their current security requirements. Circles inside the army promote a stronger pro-American policy, but while there is partial integration into NATO-structures, the government cooperates with Moscow in the area of military techniques. Though President Ilham Aliyev has named NATO integration as a top foreign policy priority for the country, there have been delays in the elaboration of IPAP and the National Security Doctrine, which is a cornerstone of the alliance’s cooperation with post-Soviet states and which the government had prematurely announced to be published in 2007. The aims of a national security framework in accordance with NATO can be listed as follows: - restructuring the army, the Defence Ministry and the General Staff - enhancing civilian control and transparency - creating a NATO-standard modern command and control system - bringing the military education system into compliance with NATO standards - training specialists and drafting documents for transparent budgeting - improving military laws and regulations and harmonizing them with modern standards - forming a mobile military unit - modernizing the navy - improving an aerodrome in line with NATO standards - replacing Soviet-type military equipment by modern NATO-standard arms - implementing in Azerbaijan a program similar to the US “Train and Equip” program in Georgia34. The first phase of IPAP began in 2005 and ended in 2007 when its measures were officially successfully completed. The second IPAP, unlike the first one envisaging serious reforms, was adopted in September 2007 and will last till 2009. However, it was only in March 2008, when Baku signed the new accord on cooperation with NATO. In the Azerbaijani media “informed diplomatic sources” were quoted that NATO officials had been trying to persuade Baku to make a formal declaration of its intention to 33

Liz Fuller, Azerbaijan: Baku Seems Ambivalent About NATO Membership, RFE/RL, March 22, 2007. See also: Aris Kazinyan: NATO is Modeling the Security System of the South Caucasus, November 22, 2006, Regnum. www.armeniadiaspora.com. 34

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seek NATO membership, but without success35. The second IPAP, for which Azerbaijan will receive about $21 million from NATO, comprises the following sections: political issues and security policy, defence and military issues, public information and emergency civil planning and information security. Obviously the reasons for the delay could be found in the obstacles to closer cooperation listed in a report of a NATO-delegation. In a country with authoritarian structures where civil society is weak and rudimentary and the population is disillusioned from politics, the development of a national security doctrine that IPAP is demanding inevitably occurs without transparency. Azerbaijan has yet to finalize its military doctrine. President Aliyev promulgated a National Security Concept in May 2007, which confirmed Azerbaijan's unambiguous aspiration towards Euro-Atlantic integration. It is not very likely that Azerbaijan will be able to fulfil its commitments to NATO in the next few years. Officially Baku declares that military reforms, which IPAP demands, will bring the armed forces up to NATO standards by 2015. Of course with this cautious approach Baku tries to avoid contracting the same Russian hostility as Georgia did. Another reason for Baku not to express its ultimate goal concerning NATO and to keep an attitude of “wait and see” is that it realizes how NATO is currently split into advocates of accepting Georgia and Ukraine as members and those countries like Germany and France who successfully prevented a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the latest NATO-summit in Bucharest in April 2008. In this respect Georgia is an important precedent for Azerbaijan. Baku had an opportunity to observe how effective Moscow’s influence and threatening could be. If both countries would have been accepted to MAP, it may have modified its position. Complicated Relations with Russia and Iran While Russia is using all kinds of options to prevent Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO, Azerbaijan tries to strike a balance between the interests of NATO and Russia. Of course Moscow observes Azerbaijan’s rapprochement with the West with suspicion. Azerbaijan has effectively curtailed military and military-technical cooperation in the CIS. On the other hand it has intensified its military cooperation, including arms purchases, with Moscow36. Accompanied by the attempt to gain control of the energy sectors, Moscow’s paradigm of controlled instability includes its claim on conflict management. In reality this usually means delay and prevention of conflict solutions for its own benefit. Though Russia is not really able to discipline Baku directly, it could strengthen the cooperation with Armenia and modify its officially balanced attitude in the Karabakh conflict to the advantage of Armenia. However, economic sanctions that Moscow could impose would hit Azerbaijan less than in the case of Georgia or Armenia. Azerbaijan's deliberately cautious policy is designed to avoid spoiling relations with its big neighbours Iran and Russia in order to have a normal coexistence. It is part of a broader strategy, as Azerbaijan has also deepened its ties to Pakistan and the Central Asian states. This demonstrates an assumed, new position of strength relying upon energy resources. Baku does not only rely on the partnership with Turkey which still is an indispensable ally concerning the Karabakh conflict. However, it also shows that Azerbaijan does not possess a clear security related strategy but rather a tactic of manoeuvring between its political options. Despite the historic tension between Iran and Azerbaijan, Iran, which in the Karabakh conflict has supported Armenia, is not regarded as a real threat. To some extent the currently tense situation in the region is profitable for Azerbaijan, as its strategic location bordering Iran maintains US military engagement and enhances geo-strategic importance. It allows Baku to ignore American concerns over its dismal electoral record and at the same time to develop its ties with Tehran. Though this relationship is not based on friendship but is accompanied by mutual mistrust, Baku will not put this relationship at risk. Not only does Iran supply energy to the Azerbaijani exclave Nakhchivan, which remains in a difficult economic situation, but there is also the need to undercut the ArmenianIranian partnership. Military and Economic Partnership with Turkey and Georgia

35 Liz Fuller, Azerbaijan: Opposition Deplores Indecision Over NATO, Breaking News published on 21/03/2008. RFE/RL http://www.rferl.org. 36 Russia, Azerbaijan Agree to Intensify Military Cooperation, ITAR-TASS, Russia, Nov 29 2007.

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For Baku, Turkey is an indispensable ally. Though from time to time there have been some problems in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations including misunderstandings and unfulfilled expectations, the SouthCaucasus and especially Azerbaijan remain a priority for the current Turkish leadership37. Turkish policy in the South Caucasus is determined by a network of economic interests, geo-strategic goals and in the case of Azerbaijan ethnic relations. Until the decision for the main pipeline was reached, Turkey had fought hard that the route would finish in Ceyhan. This certainly provided Baku with a position of power, Azerbaijan ceased to be looked upon as Turkey’s younger brother. From time to time Heydar Aliyev could point to the fact that their roles had changed. Ankara showed solidarity not only in their mutual advocacy for the realization of the BTC. When in 2001 Iranian gunboats provoked an incident with a ship belonging to the oil company BP exploring the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, Ankara sent a clear warning to Tehran38. Turkey’s expanding economy needs new sources of energy as their dependence on imports, already at 65% of their needs, steadily increases. On the other hand Turkey wants to gain influence as a hub for the European energy market and as a big energy terminal for the region. The aim is the integration of the Turkish energy system into neighbouring energy systems, especially the European. Together with the parallel gas pipeline from Azerbaijan, the BTC forms the main route of the East- West Transport corridor. In the struggle over the disputed realisation of the route it was Washington’s support that was decisive in the end. The construction of the BTC helped to exclude Iran from the Caspian pipeline system and to assure that a part of the oil and gas from the Caspian basin could bypass the Russian pipeline network. For Turkey, too, the route is important for strategic reasons39. It enables it to increase its strategic oil reserves, to improve safety and stability. The pipeline has changed the structure of energy relations in the region. With the inauguration of the BTC in 2005 Turkey has found a new role and perspective in the South Caucasus. However, it remains doubtful, if, as Baku claims, there is enough Azerbaijani oil to fill the BTC40. When probably in 2010 the exploration on the huge Kazakh oil field Kashagan will begin, an under water pipeline would have to be constructed, but it can hardly be built without Moscow’s consent. Moscow has preferred to promote a pipeline from Burgas to Alexandropoulos in order to link the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. Kazakhstan, for its part, has some other export alternatives, apart from Russia to China or across Turkmenistan to Iran. The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline would be necessary for the realization of the 2100-mile Nabucco pipeline project, which is planned to bring Caspian - and possibly Iranian - gas across Turkey to Europe in order to diversify European gas imports 41 . The starting point of the Nabucco-Pipeline would be Erzurum, where it would be linked to the gas pipelines from Azerbaijan and Iran and potentially to the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. It would run to Istanbul into eastern Greece, then northwards across Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary terminating in Austria. However, the construction would take some years and Moscow has enough means to prevent it. To the disapproval of the West, Turkmenistan has widened its energy links to Russia. In May 2007 Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia agreed to build a gas pipeline to Russia along the Caspian shore jeopardizing the Nabucco project. Currently only the gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah-Deniz gas field has been committed to the project42. However, the Azerbaijani gas 37 In particular, speculations among Turkish politicians and in the Turkish public about normalization of the TurkishArmenian relations including the opening of the border have adversely affected the Turkish- Azerbaijani friendship. President Ilham Aliyev threatened to retreat from peace negotiations if Ankara decides to open the border. Azerbaijan: Turkey Could Prove Spoiler for Nagorno-Karabakh Peace, Eurasia Insight, 4/08/04. http://www.eurasianet.org/. 38 The chief of the Turkish General Staff officially visited Baku and a squadron of jet fighters of the Turkish Air Force performed an air show over Baku which was enthusiastically received. 39

Zeyno Baran, The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline: Implications for Turkey, in: Starr, S. Frederick, Cornell, Svante E. (Hg.), The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline: Oil Window to the West. Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. Washington, D.C. 2205, p. 103–118. 40 In 2006 Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan signed a declaration that Kazakhstan will join the BTC-project. Vladimir Socor, Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan Oil Transport Agreement: Not yet Historic, but Might Become so, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Jamestown Foundation, June 19, 2006, Vol. 3, Issue 118. 41 Vladimir Socor, Caspian Gas Plentiful now for Nabucco Pipeline Project, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 4, Issue 92, May 10, 2007. 42 Stephen Blank, Russia Takes a Step towards the Formation of a Natural Gas Cartel, Eurasia Insight, Business & Economics, 17 May 2007.

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competes with Russian gas for the European market through Turkey. Moscow is pushing Turkey to extend the capacity of Blue Stream, the underwater pipeline across the Black Sea to Samsun, which was put into operation in 2003. The BTC and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline are not the only the basis for the AzerbaijaniTurkish cooperation. A strategic partnership was established between Azerbaijan and Georgia, too, especially in the energy-sector but also in the military field. Besides the USA, for both countries Turkey is their most important strategic partner. Another joint project is the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railroad, which is expected to be completed by 2009 linking Azerbaijan to Turkey and Europe. In 2007 they signed an agreement titled the “Common Vision for Regional Cooperation”. It envisages the expansion of cooperation in the fields of transportation, electricity, and the free movement of people. In the framework of the PfP-program Ankara supports Georgia just like Azerbaijan in the field of military reforms to adjust its military to NATO-standards. Security policy and military relations have been one of the pillars of Turkish policy in the South Caucasus in recent years. While Ankara has trained Azerbaijani military officers since 1996, the military ties between Turkey and Georgia were expanded later. In 2002 Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia concluded a trilateral agreement (Military Cooperation Agreement) about the fight against terrorism, arms smuggling, money laundering etc. Training programmes are the most important part of the cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan. However, in subsequent years cooperation with Georgia and Turkey, which has been supported by Washington, has been neglected mainly due to consideration for Moscow. In 2007 cooperation between the Turkish and Azerbaijani armies was again intensified by planning to establish a joint commission to co-ordinate Baku’s preparations for NATO membership and an army company that meets NATO standards.43 For more than ten years, Azerbaijan and Georgia have tried to develop an additional field for regional cooperation. Together with Ukraine and Moldavia in 1997 they founded the organization GUAM as an alternative to the CIS with the aim of breaking out of Russia's orbit. For Moscow this alliance has always been an anti-Russian instrument used by the United States, something like a “Trojan horse” in the CIS. However, since 2006 the member states have tried to provide the organization with a new start. Formally, the main objective of GUAM is business cooperation, including searching for ways to get rid of dependency on Russian energy. But it has a military-political component too, as the countries have active cooperation with NATO. Their main focus is now on the creation of a free-trade zone, on a plan in the energy sector and another linked to frozen conflicts. GUAM is envisioning the extension of the OdessaBrody pipeline to Gdansk, Poland; which would enable Azerbaijan to pump oil directly to Western Europe. A strong statement of Ukrainian President Yushchenko taking Azerbaijan’s side in the Karabakh conflict appeared to be linked to the Ukraine’s desire for Azerbaijani support in the energy sphere. The second point on the agenda is the creation of a joint GUAM peacekeeping force. Tbilisi would like to replace the existing Russian CIS peacekeeping forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia by a GUAM force under a UN or OSCE mandate. For Azerbaijan a military unit of GUAM could be of interest with respect toward the security of its pipelines and its sector in the Caspian Sea. Integration into European Structures The signing of the ENP agreement between the EU and the three South Caucasian countries has started a new chapter and is aimed at further deepening relations. The ENP Action Plan was adopted in November 2006, its implementation being monitored by the bodies of the EU-Azerbaijan Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) from 1999, with the goal of promoting respect for democracy, the rule of law and human rights, as well as market economy reforms. So it seems that Azerbaijan is slowly but steadily moving towards closer integration with the European structures. President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly emphasized Azerbaijan’s basic orientation towards Europe. There is a myth in the South Caucasus that if Georgia will become a NATO member this will automatically open the door for Azerbaijan and Armenia and some day they could become members of the EU. This illusion does not accept that the EU’s level of cooperation with Azerbaijan is determined by the policies of Azerbaijan itself. Without greater commitment to reform, Azerbaijan will not be able to move closer to Europe. The existence of energy resources is not enough. The fact that there is an agreement with the EU about the 43

Duygu Guvenc, Turkish Daily News, Ankara, April 3, 2007.

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export of Azerbaijani gas from the Shah-Deniz field to the European markets, may make Azerbaijani politicians think that Europe needs Azerbaijan more than the other way round. But in the long run it is European integration that could lead to political stability at home and provide the chance for a peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict. The EU cannot ignore the conflict, because the success of ENP will be dependent on the success of the peace process. However, the EU has no impact on the conflict solution process and no political option; it faces the same dilemma as other institutions. The EU’s action plan with Azerbaijan supports the right to territorial integrity while the action plan for Armenia underlines the principal for selfdetermination. The problem of the EU concerning the South Caucasus is that its capacity is limited, because other regions have a higher priority. In the Caucasus it faces an inscrutable Russia. There is no consent among European countries on how to deal with Moscow’s opposition to the integration of the South Caucasian countries into Euro-Atlantic structures. The EU hesitates to become involved with conflicts that do not seem to be resolvable in the foreseeable future. The Karabakh Conflict Determining Foreign and Security Policy The history of the conflict-resolution process shows that the unsolved, frozen conflicts exert the biggest effect both on the domestic development and foreign policy strategies and orientations. Every political leadership including those of the separatist regimes regards the security dilemma as its most important factor in its political decisions. The Karabakh conflict not only is an obstacle for the Western actors, it is also a disturbing factor in creating a balanced policy. Without Russia it cannot be solved. And as long as Washington remains neutral in the conflict, from the Azerbaijani perspective the United States is not the optimal partner in security affairs. The result of this constellation is a mixed attitude of frustration and aspiration hoping that the growing oil revenues will change the status quo in the long run while keeping the option to solve it with force. There is a deep gulf between understanding the imperative to solve the conflict peacefully and the realization that Azerbaijan would have to carry the major burden of concessions. However, the alternative to a painful compromise would be a new war. The leadership cannot ignore the mood of the population without taking the risk of a mass protest movement. While Armenian hardliners reject everything that does not result in an immediate secession from Azerbaijan, the majority of the population in Azerbaijan would support a military operation to win back Karabakh, at least the occupied regions around Karabakh, which Armenia controls as a buffer zone44. It seems that the prospect of a new war is something that people are psychologically prepared for. The government uses the manipulation of the popular protest over the international treatment of the conflict to the consolidation of its power base. The centralized decision-making in an only formally anchored democracy makes the peace-process for the public not transparent. In addition, the suppressed opposition is also strongly against any compromise solution. In view of the lack of results from negotiations there is an increasing militancy in Azerbaijan. People fear that any compromise might end in the loss of Karabakh. Since his takeover Ilham Aliyev often announced the possibility of a military option, though it may be mainly to strengthen his internal position. Azerbaijan has drastically increased its defence expenses forcing Armenia to do the same. The military budgets of both countries are growing much faster than their high GDP growth rates. Azerbaijan's military budget has grown from $146 million (US) in 2004 to almost $1 billion in 2007 and the plan for 2008 is to increase defense spending to $2 billion 45 . However, it is questionable if this has really positively affected the combat strength of the Azerbaijani army, whose level of professionalism and moral condition is usually described as very low. As Georgia, too, is raising its military spending, the Caucasus has become one of the world's most militarized regions, which is in contradiction to the priorities of European integration of the three countries. The negotiating process in the Karabakh war has not brought any results yet. The Minsk Process initiated by the OSCE provides a platform for dialogue, but has so far not been able to develop feasible

44 Over Half of Azeris Back Military Conflict Resolution: Survey, Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan, 3 November 2005. Fifty-eight percent would support a military option, 25% support a peaceful solution. 45 Armenia's defence spending has increased by 350% as compared to 2000 ($264 million in 2007). Oleg Gorupai, The Geopolitical Whirlpool of the Caucasus, translated by Elena Leonova, Source: Krasnaya Zvezda, October 8, 2007.

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proposals to resolve the conflict46. There has been little willingness to make concessions on both sides and mediators have not been able to agree on conditions for the status of Karabakh. The ceasefire from 1994 has led to a situation that is widely described as being “no peace, no war”.47 For the Azerbaijani public the insistence of the OSCE on compromise has been perceived as losing sovereignty over Karabakh in return for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied areas outside Karabakh. Generally, there is distrust of the mediating team among the Azerbaijani society, claiming that the co-chair countries of the Minsk group lean directly and indirectly towards Armenia. This is linked with tendencies towards an anti-Western stance and the feeling of being the victim “once again.” The lack of progress in the resolution of the conflict is feeding frustration and disillusionment with the West in Azerbaijan. It has already started to undermine popular support for Euro-Atlantic integration. Most of the people think that Russia is not interested in the settlement of the conflict since it may actually lose leverage to influence Armenia and Azerbaijan, while the USA is interested in the resolution of the conflict, but tries to seek a solution at the expense of Azerbaijan. The defiant stance arising from this situation is giving rise to a call for the people to reflect and rely on their own strength resulting in a readiness for war that misjudges the existing balance of power and disregards the devastating effects of a further armed conflict. As the optimism of the international mediators proved to be an illusion, in 2006 they have made the basic principles of the negotiations public hoping for an open debate in both countries. The plans envisaged a future referendum by the population of Karabakh deciding the final status of Karabakh. However, this would inevitably lead to the loss of Karabakh48. Both believe that time is on their side. Yerevan hopes that the de facto reality of Karabakh as an independent state will lead to recognition by the international community, especially after Kosovo has gained its independence. Baku is wary of negotiations and pins its hopes on its arms build-up. Mistrust is high, dialogue opportunities are low and on both sides a maximal approach is wide spread. There is no civil society which would be a prerequisite for accepting compromises to peacefully resolve the conflict. There are only a few politicians on both sides with dissenting opinions who publicly declare that patriotic rhetoric is not enough to solve the conflict. How successful Georgia’s western course will advance is important for Azerbaijan. Georgia is eager to join the EU and transatlantic structures. If Georgia will be accepted to NATO some day, this could lead to some new developments. However, as the frozen conflicts hamper Georgian entry into the Alliance for the time being, the Karabakh conflict prevents Baku to fulfil the military reforms that IPAP is demanding. Baku argues that it is not possible for a country at war to reduce the number of troops and to transform the army into a professional one. The leadership in Baku would like integration into Western structures without the risk of democratization that could likely cause internal conflicts. Reforms are implemented but without performing a broad democratization. The fact that Azerbaijan has to cultivate its relations with Russia for purely geo-political reasons is one cause for the stronger leaning on Moscow after Ilham Aliyev came to power. Another is the Karabakh conflict, which remains Moscow’s most useful instrument to put pressure 46

The so-called Minsk Group is responsible within the OSCE for solving the Karabakh conflict. It comprises representatives of the conflicting parties and the following countries: USA, Russia, France, Germany, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Italy, Belarus and Turkey. The USA, Russia and France currently hold the cochairmanship of the Group. The OSCE cochairmen proposed two peace plans in 1997 known as the “package” and “staged” plans, which envisaged greater autonomy for Nagorno Karabakh and diminishing Azerbaijani sovereignty over the region. Both of them were accepted by Azerbaijan. Armenian president Ter- Petrossian accepted the second plan, but was forced to resign because of his concessions. A third plan called “common state” was proposed in 1998, providing for the concept of a common state between Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh. It was rejected by Azerbaijan. The so-called Prague Process, started in April 2004, has not achieved any results as well. 47

Azerbaijan neither agrees to the independent status of Nagorno-Karabakh nor to its being part of Armenia. Nevertheless, it is ready to grant the highest possible status of autonomy to Karabakh. Armenia insists that the problem can be resolved only by the self-determination of the Armenians of Karabakh. This would lead to unification with Armenia or to the recognition as an independent state. For the Armenian side autonomy inside Azerbaijan is “a stage which is over”. “Armenian minister rejects Azerbaijani autonomy idea for Karabakh”, Mediamax. Armenian news agency, Yerevan, 16 May 2005. 48 The plans envisage a mixture of “package” and “staged” plans. Some of its elements should be agreed to at once, others would be gradually implemented. The plan includes the withdrawal from the occupied regions and the reopening of the lines of communication between the two countries. An international peacekeeping force would monitor the agreement. A problem is to find an arrangement about the districts in Azerbaijan connecting Armenia and Karabakh which both don’t want to loose.

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on Baku. In Azerbaijan external players are always judged by their attitude towards the most important national question, seeking to take advantage of them in the struggle with Armenia. In this unstable situation the leadership prefers to manoeuvre between the West and Russia. As in both Azerbaijan and Armenia the current leaderships will probably strengthen their position of power, serious changes in the short run should not be expected. Armenia will remain in Russia’s orbit while Azerbaijan will be courted because of its energy resources, but kept away from further integration into western structures. The worst future scenario would be an ongoing militarization of the South Caucasus until Azerbaijan has changed the current balance of power to its favour, feeling strong enough to start a new war. A chance to stop this possible danger could be by starting regional cooperation before a definite solution to the conflict, accompanied by a reform process that would open ways of integration into European structures. Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.103-116.

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Azerbaijan’s strategic role in the contemporary geopolitics of Eurasia Elkhan Nuriyev D. Sc. (Political Science) Director, Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan At the present time, Azerbaijan is experiencing a completely new period of its historical development. The early years of independence became the turning point for national transformation of the country. Working in a very tense atmosphere during 1993-2003, nationwide leader Heydar Aliyev undertook a whole set of radical measures to stabilize the political and economic life of the country. In reality, Heydar Aliyev succeeded in strengthening the statehood and defined the long-term strategy of national development for years ahead, given that the national leader regarded newly independent Azerbaijan as a vital strategic locality and important economic partner for the international community. The outcome of Heydar Aliyev’s well-conceived policy strategy has led not only to intensive development of the national economy but also rapidly transformed the young country into the main integrator of regional processes as a result of which Azerbaijan became a reliable actor within the international relations system. Already in the new millennium, the policy of reform conducted during the last few years has enabled the Azerbaijani authorities to reach the necessary level of political and economic development which testifies to the efficient steps taken towards maintaining a stable political situation and building an effective system of market economic structure. The main concept being laid in the contemporary reform agenda of President Ilham Aliyev can be explained by the desire of the Azerbaijani political elite to ensure the competitiveness of Azerbaijan in regional processes and the consolidation of economic leadership in the South Caucasus. For this reason, Azerbaijan remains one of the most frequently discussed countries in international arenas. Being a pivotal country with the largest population in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan indeed matters and deserves special consideration. Today this secular Muslim state has close contact with the Islamic world, while it is simultaneously influenced by neighboring Christian countries oriented towards Western culture. Its position on the junction of the East and West has enabled Azerbaijan to develop a synthesis of the values of both cultures. Consequently, Azerbaijan acts as a bridge which can unite not only different cultures and civilizations but also the major economic systems of Europe and Asia. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is growing closer to the Western world for the three major reasons that make this Caucasian state a special case. These are Azerbaijan’s energy resources, the contribution of a settlement over Nagorno-Karabakh to regional stability and the country’s democratization through profound modernization. It is the combination of the aforementioned issues that has placed Azerbaijan at the core of international relations. Azerbaijan: Caspian Keystone of the Wider Black Sea Region Quite obviously, the wider Black Sea-Caspian basin is increasingly becoming a place of utmost importance in terms of energy production, transportation and distribution. The entire region finds itself on the crossroads of transportation corridors to connect Europe with the South Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. In this context, the wider Black Sea area has an enormous potential to become a gateway between the Balkans and the South Caucasus, linking Romania to Georgia, and, via energy-rich Azerbaijan to the Caspian Sea. From a geo-economic standpoint, Azerbaijan serves as a hub connecting energy and transportation infrastructure between Asia and Europe. As a strategically vital country in the South Caucasus-Caspian basin, Azerbaijan not only links Central Asia with Europe but also offers enormous strategic benefits to member states of the European Union (EU). In recent years Azerbaijan’s perceived willingness to cooperate closely with the enlarged European Union has attracted an unprecedented level of international attention for this rapidly developing, young democracy with the fastest growing economy in the world. Currently, energy security is gaining prominence on the EU agenda and it is likely to guide the EU’s relations with Azerbaijan in the coming years. The country’s energy wealth constitutes an important counterpoint to the volatile Persian Gulf for Western democracies, which will help Europe to diversify its energy imports. In the contemporary world, as is known, the economy is closely linked to geopolitics. Relying upon the country’s favorable 54


geographical location, Azerbaijan attempts to effectively use its economic potential while adhering to its own national interests in transnational projects. To date, the Azerbaijani leadership has implemented a number of strategically vital projects which already have become important milestones in ensuring the country’s participation in global integration initiatives. Presently, Azerbaijan realizes the opportunity to export oil via the Baku-Supsa pipeline to Georgia, via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline to Russia, via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to Georgia, Turkey and the world market. In the same way, Azerbaijani natural gas now flows via the Baku-TbilisiErzurum (BTE) pipeline to Georgia and Turkey, where it connects to the Turkish gas network through which Azerbaijan can deliver natural gas all over Europe. Besides, there is a gas pipeline to Russia (Hajikabul-Mosdok) through which Azerbaijan imported Russian gas until Azerbaijan’s production became self-sufficient. Azerbaijan also exports gas to Europe via the Turkish-Greek pipeline which was filled with Azerbaijani gas through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline for the first time in July 2007. It is planned that this pipeline will be extended to Italy by 2012. At the same time Azerbaijan thoroughly explores the NABUCCO project which envisages transit of Azerbaijani natural gas via Georgia, Turkey, Greece and Italy to the countries of the European Union. Likewise, the realization of the geo-strategically important Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project, a major Eurasian transportation link, will foster regional economic cooperation, thus creating new possibilities of developing wide scale cooperation between North and South. In actual fact, the BTC and BTE pipelines, mainly built to relieve the Western world’s oil and gas dependency on the Middle East, underscore Azerbaijan’s geopolitical importance for the European market. These two pipelines also give the country more control over its own destiny by providing strategic alternatives to Russia. Furthermore, 17,500 tons of Kazakh oil from the Tengiz field was pumped by the BTC pipeline in October 2008. This oil was supplied to Azerbaijan on tankers. Recently, the state-owned energy companies of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on basic principles of the implementation of a Trans-Caspian transport system, thus envisioning the supply of Kazakh oil to Azerbaijan and further to the world markets. It is expected that the biggest volume of Kazakh oil will be transported by the BTC after 2012, when the Kashagan field starts operating. Both the BTC and BTE pipeline projects have increased the geopolitical significance of the South Caucasus, contributed to regional cooperation and accelerated the integration of the wider Black Sea-Caspian basin with the EuroAtlantic community. The successful implementation of the regional infrastructure projects demonstrates that Azerbaijan has become a vital geopolitical actor within and beyond the region. In addition, resource-rich Azerbaijan forms a transit hub in an evolving geostrategic and geoeconomic system that stretches from Europe to the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Azerbaijan’s participation in the trans-national energy projects is aimed at protecting its strategic interests in the wider Black Sea-Caspian basin area and moving forward in accomplishing measures for closer integration into the European Community. Today the EU seeks alternative energy supplies that could satisfy Europe’s growing consumption. More precisely, the EU strongly supports the multiplicity of both suppliers and transport pipelines as a means of diversifying its supply of energy resources and lowering energy prices. Accordingly, the EU seeks to enhance its relations with Central Asian states in order to establish a long energy corridor, which could bring Eastern Caspian hydrocarbon resources to Western Europe via Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and south-eastern Europe. Therefore, the participation of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the Trans-Caspian energy project for shipping gas through the underwater pipeline via Azerbaijan to European markets is of particular focus in the discussions on transportation cooperation between Azerbaijan and the European Union. Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict The restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and the return of the ethnically cleansed internally displaced people (IDP) to their homelands remain a chief priority of the country’s foreign policy. The lack of resolution of the Armenian- Azerbaijani conflict prevents security cooperation and impedes economic development across the wider Black Sea-Caspian basin area. The present-day deadlocked situation of no war, yet no peace in the conflict zone plays a crucial role in the political instability of the entire South Caucasus and even beyond. It is obvious that the integration of the South Caucasus into the European community can happen only on the basis of respect for international law, recognition of the value of diversity and rejection of ethnic cleansing and violence against civilians. In recent years Azerbaijan has tried its utmost to use every opportunity to move the negotiation process forward in the 55


peace talks on the conflict settlement. The negotiations have been held at the level of presidents and ministers of foreign affairs in the framework of the so-called Prague process. Clearly, Armenia’s position in the negotiations is assessed as uncooperative, given that Yerevan’s uncompromising attitude led to the country’s self-imposed isolation from all regional cooperation initiatives and its almost complete dependence on external players. Although most Armenians, including state officials, are ready for compromise; they are under severe pressure from powerful domestic groups promoting a confrontational policy. It is regrettable that the Armenian authorities do not see the realities of the current situation and the potential benefits of the conflict settlement. Indeed Yerevan’s approach undermines Armenia’s own future and continues to deteriorate the situation in the region. Meanwhile, the EU welcomes the dialogue between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia and the regular meetings between the foreign ministers, hoping these negotiations will result in a peace deal. In turn many in Azerbaijan are keen to see a larger EU role in resolving the conflict. Compared with the OSCE and the Council of Europe, the EU offers a unique combination of economic power and possibilities for solid political dialogue, adding value to conventional multilateral diplomacy under the OSCE’s aegis. Diplomatic efforts continue to further consolidate the position of the international community based upon the support for the territorial integrity and the inviolability of internationallyrecognized borders of Azerbaijan, as well as the condemnation of the occupation and ethnic cleansing. The EU, OSCE, the Council of Europe and principal powers declared the so-called presidential and municipal elections in the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan illegal and with no legal effect. This proves that the international community has expressed support and respect for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, thus demonstrating that international organizations and leading nations are providing a clear signal to those destructive forces who try to attempt to lead the peace process into a deadlock and accept the occupation of Azerbaijani lands as a fait accompli. Right from the start of the peace talks, Azerbaijan demanded the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from all the occupied territories, restoration of the sovereign rights of Azerbaijan in these territories and return of the forcibly displaced population to their places of origin. The Azerbaijani people also demand that the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict be resolved in accordance with the norms and principles of international law, as reflected in the strong resolutions of the United Nations (UN) Security Council and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), including other official legal documents that make a clear reference to the occupation of Azerbaijan’s territory in violation of international law and reaffirm the inviolability of the internationally acknowledged borders of Azerbaijan and inadmissibility of the use of force for the acquisition of territory. Although these resolutions have so far received no implementation, it is now time for the international community to be consistent with its principles and take serious steps to safeguard international law. Recently, frequent breaches of the ceasefire in the conflict zone have demonstrated the fragility and instability of the situation at the front, even if there has been no return to full-scale hostilities. Azerbaijan continues working with international organizations and principal powers to increase the mediation efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group with the aim of reaching the just and lasting settlement of the conflict on the basis of norms and principles of international law. The lack of progress in finding an enduring solution to this protracted territorial conflict is a worrying and destabilizing factor that continues to impact regional European security and demands more extensive efforts by the European security organizations. In this context, much will also depend on how successfully Russia, the U.S. and the European Union develop multilateral cooperation with the OSCE and the Council of Europe and create new possibilities for intensifying constructive dialogue. Promoting Democratization through Profound Modernization Azerbaijani society perceives democratization as the most important factor of the country’s national development. Azerbaijanis are proud that they established the first democracy in the Muslim world as far back as 1918. Modern Azerbaijan is a proving ground where tools and models for breaking old stereotypes and establishing new democratic values are being tested. Being a young independent state, Azerbaijan aspires to build democratic institutions and create a market economy. During the opening of the Autumn session of Azerbaijani Parliament on October 2, 2005, the President of Azerbaijan H.E. Mr. Ilham Aliyev said that “…the parallel implementation of economic, political and social reforms is fully developing Azerbaijan, is consolidating stability, which is so necessary for our country, and is exercising 56


a positive impact on the social and political situation49.” Azerbaijani authorities strongly believe that the main task faced by the ruling elite during the last several years has been the formation of a new political space of the country where citizens would realize their own rights and obligations50. Moreover, political stability, economic liberalization and democratization remain the major priority areas for Azerbaijan, and are essential for the authorities to demonstrate that their country shares values with the EU in practice. Indeed, the Azerbaijani authorities have proved that they can mobilize resources to implement political, economic and social reforms so as to attain European standards. Despite the fact that democracy is a complicated process, the Azerbaijani government in recent years has made advances towards political and economic transformation by promoting democratization through extensive reform, particularly via the development of democratic elements, good governance and an open society. The base of civil society in Azerbaijan is now being formed purposefully and it is precisely this process that reflects the main context of the future transition towards consolidated democracy. Taking into account that there are more than 3,000 non-governmental organizations in Azerbaijan, the establishment of the Council of State Support for NGOs under the President of Azerbaijan in 2007 became an important milestone in the direction of forming a dynamic and effective “third sector” in the country. Most importantly, the aforementioned factor testifies to the development of democratic processes and indicates the formation of a civil society in Azerbaijan. Certainly, Azerbaijan still can achieve a true democracy, as Azeri society is prone to evolutionary democratic change. The Azerbaijani leadership’s strategy is aimed at improving the democratic system, mainly moving from stability towards modernization. One point is quite clear: success in developing democratic standards and market economy criteria in Azerbaijan could serve as a model for diffusing similar reforms across the post-Soviet Muslim states of Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, thus creating a new ‘corridor of democratic values’ that would add to the security and stability of Eurasia as a whole. Geopolitical Determinants of Azerbaijan’s Foreign and Security Policy Recognition of being an integral part of a wider and closely interlinked Black Sea-Caspian region has enabled the Azerbaijani leadership to pursue a balanced interest-based policy in foreign relations with major regional powers. Azerbaijan cultivates warm and friendly relations with Russia, Turkey, Iran, the United States and the EU, thus trying to satisfy the interests of all powerful actors whether near or far. From a geopolitical standpoint, only through such a balanced diplomatic stance, has Azerbaijan been able to guarantee national security and good economic prospects. Azerbaijan has always been able to play a more independent role because of Caspian energy riches and a very experienced political leadership. Even despite Russian and Iranian jealousy in regard to Azerbaijan’s endeavors to expand cooperation with Euro-Atlantic structures, the Azerbaijani ruling elite continues to strengthen warm and friendly relations with Moscow and Tehran while maintaining a strong strategic partnership with the United States and the European Union. President Ilham Aliyev has skillfully played the relations with Russia, Iran and the West to preserve a balanced, multi-vectored and pragmatic foreign policy and with that, consolidating stability in the country and the region. In reality, the Azerbaijani leader has succeeded in deepening strategic partnerships with the major neighboring powers and managed to find a way to cooperate with every powerful actor in the region. For Azerbaijan, national interests have indeed begun to take on a more pronounced role in the country’s strategy for developing bilateral and multilateral ties. Azerbaijan’s strong support of the antiterrorism campaign has significantly extended security ties with the United States, mainly deepening American strategic interests in the entire region. The strengthening of U.S.-Azeri security relationships has also cleared the way for wide-ranging cooperation with other Western democracies, most notably the EU member states such as Germany, Great Britain, France, and Italy. To date, the development of pragmatic and mutually advantageous bilateral relations has enabled Azerbaijan and its partners to find mutually acceptable solutions to the major regional security problems.

49

Bakinskiy Rabochiy newspaper, October 3, 2006.

50

For an interesting overview on this issue, see Mehdiyev, Ramiz, Defining the Strategy of Tomorrow: Course Towards Modernization, (in Azeri, English and Russian), Sharg-Qarb Printing House, Baku, 2008.

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In recent times world nations have witnessed a change in the international political and economic environment, thus facing a number of new security challenges. In order to meet these challenges, in the past several years Azerbaijan has begun to increasingly play an effective role in creating a certain space for developing an active dialogue among cultures and civilizations. Being a bridge connecting East and West, Azerbaijan is a unique country that could contribute significantly to expanding dialogue among cultures and civilizations. Consequently, this new initiative allows the Azerbaijani authorities not only to consolidate the country’s regional stance but also to attract more attention from Azerbaijan’s allies and partners to the problem of maintaining stability and security in the South Caucasus-Caspian basin. Likewise, this initiative helps the Azerbaijani leadership to intensify mutually beneficial cooperation in the entire region. Conclusion As a pivotal country in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan has the opportunity to influence economic and political trends not only in Central Asia and the Caspian basin but also in the Middle East. Investments made by major European energy companies and the growing presence of some EU member states demonstrate that Azerbaijan is seen today as a reliable partner with which the EU is trying to cultivate trade and economic relations. In practice, Azerbaijan has already taken a lead in developing the East-West energy and transportation corridor, the most ambitious initiative in the Black Sea-Caspian basin to date. Moreover, it was a regional approach that determined Azerbaijan’s strong push for major transnational energy projects, such as BTC and BTE which have underscored not only the closer relationships among Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey but also have highlighted the activation of EU involvement in the wider Black Sea area. All of these factors are necessary elements of any successful EU strategy for the wider Black Sea-Caspian basin. Given today’s debate on the future of the entire region, the success of the Azeri- Georgian-Turkish alliance in building reliable partnerships with Greece and Ukraine and in advancing European strategic interests in the Black Sea region is quite remarkable. Currently, Azerbaijani leadership is formulating a new comprehensive strategy, aimed at bringing about drastic political change and extensive economic modernization of the society. Much of the work is to be done by Azerbaijanis themselves, although the international organizations should also come up with their part of the new agenda as major contributors to Azerbaijan’s future success. It is about a new strategic vision of how to respond to existing and future challenges in an ever-changing world. The restoration of territorial integrity and the consolidation of the balanced, interest-based foreign policy are absolutely necessary to keep that vision strong. Russia, the United States and the European Union should better coordinate their policies to help Azerbaijan consolidate stability and security in the long run. All three principal powers could assert a more vigorous role in fostering regional stability and enduring peace through their cooperative policy actions. For this to occur, Russia, the United States and the European Union need a fresh, comprehensive action plan which will aim at asserting their more active and pragmatic role by taking practical steps to contribute significantly to conflict resolution and formulating a Russia-US-EU trilateral response to regional security challenges. Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.73-81.

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Big politics in small spaces: what are Azerbaijan’s prospects in the geopolitical arena? Vladislav Inozemtsev D. Sc. (Economics) Director, Russia’s Center for Research into the Postindustrial Society The 1990s are well known to have been a difficult period for the peoples of the newly independent states that emerged on the territory of the former Soviet Union, but it can be asserted confidently that it was the Transcaucasian countries that suffered most. Even in the Soviet Union’s last years, conflicts were already breaking out in the region, first between Azerbaijan and Armenia, then in Georgia, and somewhat later in Chechnya (the last also affecting all neighbouring countries in one way or another). Right up to the end of the century, the Caucasus was viewed both by Russia and the other great powers as a zone of heightened conflict. “Big-time politics” in the region presupposed, above all, the development and implementation of various measures to “freeze” military conflicts (given that a large part of Azerbaijan’s territory is occupied by Armenia and Russia is providing support to separatist regimes in Georgia, the idea of actually resolving these conflicts is still out of the question). The same period also saw the economic crisis reach its zenith: Georgia’s GDP dropped to 44.2% of its 1989 level, that of Armenia by 71%, and that of Azerbaijan by 54.7 %. This region, traditionally seen as a strategic one, was just a headache for politicians. The situation began to change back in the mid-1990s, when the experienced and responsible politicians Heydar Aliyev and Eduard Shevardnadze came to power in Azerbaijan and Georgia. Both these leaders were well aware that the post-Soviet economic crisis could be overcome only by integrating their countries into the global economy, above all by reinstating Azerbaijan as a major oilextracting power and Georgia as a transit country. In 2002, construction work was launched on the Baku-TbilisiCeyhan oil pipeline, which was commissioned in 2006. Essentially, from this time on, a truly serious political game began in the Transcaucasus, the ace-in-the-hole today being deliveries of oil and gas from the Caspian region – one of the world’s richest in hydrocarbons, squeezed between the increasingly unstable Middle East and Russia, which is becoming more and more “unpredictable” in the eyes of some western politicians. Azerbaijan’s Energy Potential: Yesterday and Today Azerbaijan was associated with oil long before it became an independent state. It was in the Baku area that extraction began of what was still Russian oil back in the late 1870s; it was here that Ludwig Nobel laid the first oil pipeline and built the first tanker to take Baku oil to the mouth of the Volga, whence it was transported by barge to the central regions of Russia. The rapid development of new oil sources, using what were, at the time, the state-of-the art technologies of foreign investors (primarily Nobel and Rothschild), allowed Russia to become, in 1898, the world’s biggest oil producer and kept the USA out of the top slot for four years. In 1901, Russia extracted 11.98 mln.t. of oil per annum, about 90% of this coming from the Baku region. Considering that, at that time, Russia and the USA supplied about 95% of the entire world’s oil51, a hundred years ago Azerbaijan could be said to have been the main “energy superpower” in the world. Today, of course, the situation has changed fundamentally, but many factors allow indicative parallels to be drawn with the beginning of the 20th century. On the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Soviet oil industry was focusing mainly on Western Siberia, where over 63% of all the oil and almost 70% of all the gas was extracted in the country. The possibilities of the Caspian region were considered to have been mostly exhausted. The subsequent economic crisis meant that, in 1994, independent Azerbaijan was extracting only 9.6 mln.t. of oil a year, with Russia as virtually the only monopoly buyer of the crude. Former glories were apparently things only of the past (extraction in Azerbaijan peaked in the difficult war year of 1941 at 23.4 mln.t). In contrast to their Russian colleagues, however, the leaders of Azerbaijan (and Kazakhstan) boldly turned to western oil companies with the intention of reinstating their century-old successes. In the autumn of 1994, a contract was concluded for development of the Gunashli, Chirag and Azeri deposits. The parties to the agreement were 10 oil companies: Azerbaijan’s GNKAR having a share of 10%, and British ВР 51

Calculated from: Marshall Goldman. Petrostate. Putin, Power, and the New Russia, Oxford, New York: Oxford Univ. Press, 2008, table 2.1, p. 36.

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and US Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Devon Energy and Amerada Hess holding an aggregate of 60.7%. Virtually the same distribution was established for development of the huge Shah-Deniz gas deposit, the contract for which was signed in the summer of 1996 (this time ВР, the Norwegian Statoil and French Total controlled 61% of the operator’s shares)52. Today it can be stated without exaggeration that the results have exceeded all expectations: in 1993, about 8.5 mln.t of oil were extracted in Azerbaijan, the respective figures for 2000 and 2007 being about 14 mln.t. and 42.8 mln.t 53 (for comparison, oil extraction today in Russia is still almost 10% less than in 1990, the first six months of the current year having seen, moreover, a drop in the extraction volumes of virtually all oil companies). Against this background, the almost five-fold increase achieved by Azerbaijan since 1990 remains the record in the former Soviet republics. The successes achieved by Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the other Caspian oil and gas giant, (which is also actively involving foreign companies in developing its deposits) resulted, in the second half of the 1990s, in western countries overoptimistically assessing the reserves and extraction opportunities in the Caspian region. There was talk of immeasurable reserves, reaching 200 bln. barrels of oil equivalent, this being comparable with the reserves of the biggest Persian Gulf oil exporters. As the deposits were more actively developed, the estimates dropped to 17-45 bln. barrels, the upper limit thus coinciding with the estimate of reserves on the territory of the USA, including the oil of the Gulf of Mexico. Yet even such possibilities (especially since it is now believed that, by 2020, the Caspian countries [with the exception of Iran] will be able to more than double their current extraction levels) inevitably initiated the big geopolitical game now being played by Russia, the USA and Europe, as well as China (to an increasing extent, moreover). Essentially, a mighty energy resource production centre is now taking shape in the Caspian Basin and the Central Asian hinterland. Even though it may not yet be comparable with the scope of the Middle East and Russian ones (see Table 1), it is of critical importance for the global oil and gas markets. Azerbaijan is one of the leaders in this block, although not in terms of extraction volumes, but at least in terms of growth rates (in 2007, for instance, the Republic’s oil extraction rose by 31.7%, and that of gas by 63.2%). The countries of Central Asia and Azerbaijan are experiencing no shortages of investments or resource base (and are unlikely to do so in the near future), but they have been facing a common problem: to find reliable and safe ways to export their energy resources (Let us note that, in all these countries [with the exception of Uzbekistan], the proportion of the oil and gas used in their national economies is closer to the Middle East figure of 15-20% than the Russian figures [in 2007, Russia consumed about a third of the oil extracted in the country and about two-thirds of the gas]). Table 1 Comparison of the main hydrocarbon extraction regions of Eurasia (as of end 2007) Arabian Peninsula 68 100

Russia

Central Asia and Azerbaijan 6 500

Oil 10 900 (reserves) Oil 863,5 491,3 126,2 (extraction) Gas 41 900 44 650 7 600 (reserves) Gas 233,1 607,4 163,5 (extraction) * Oil data given in mln.t., gas -- bln. cub.м ** Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008, pр. 6, 9, 22 and 24.

52

For income data, see: Michael Klare. Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy, New York: Henry Holt & Co., 2008, table 5.2, p. 138. 53

See: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008, p. 9.

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This underlines the significance of export corridors, yet all the Caspian oil-producing countries are landlocked and none of them have land frontiers with the main consumers of their output. The current wave of geopolitical rivalry in the region thus centres round access to world markets.

Politics and Economics Let us note at once: the interests of the main rival parties are not so much diametrically opposed as different in essence. The oil and gas extracting countries of the region – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and, to a lesser extent, Uzbekistan – are striving to find effective and reliable transit and sales routes for their output. Russia, on the other hand, to speak plainly and not beat about the bush, intends to consolidate its position if not as a “monopoly buyer” of the oil and gas coming from the region, then as the only transit country for them to reach western consumers. The consumers themselves, however – the USA and the countries of the European Union – advocate increasing supplies of energy resources to the global market and a bigger overall supply in the world (in the hope that this might rein in oil prices at least to some extent). In the given context, Russia’s position appears objectively to be one of “imposing services” and will be perceived as such even if the Kremlin is motivated by the best intentions towards the countries of the region. After all, Russia is, in essence, suggesting that Azerbaijan and the Central Asian states give up the hunt for alternative product export routes, though it is actively involved in this itself, by laying the Nord- and South Stream gas pipelines and the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) and Burgas-Alexandropulis oil pipelines. At the same time, in recent years Russia has gained the reputation of an extremely difficult partner: up until 2005, it took advantage of its monopolistic position to buy up gas from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan at discounted rates; it has repeatedly refused to increase the capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium; it has brought pressure to bear on Azerbaijan and Georgia in an attempt to impede construction of oil and gas pipelines allowing Azerbaijan’s energy resources to reach world markets without using Russia’s transit pipelines. For this reason, the efforts made by Azerbaijan and the Central Asian republics to rid themselves of such “equal and mutually beneficial” co-operation are quite understandable. In this situation, Azerbaijan’s position becomes of critical significance for at least two reasons. First, since the laying of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Azerbaijan has maintained close and constructive relations with Georgia, which is the “natural” transit country in the Transcaucasus region. These relations remained intact after the change of power in Tbilisi and Baku in 2003 and are today still on the rise. By supplying Georgia with vitally important energy resources, Azerbaijan has consolidated its status as the chief “energy player” in the Transcaucasus. Second, and perhaps even more importantly, for the Central Asian states, Azerbaijan is their route not only to the West, but also to the ports on the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, allowing them to sell oil and other goods not only to a specific buyer country, but on the world market, to anyone offering a good price. This is particularly important in that all alternative energy resource transportation routes – oil pipelines from Kazakhstan to China, gas pipelines from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan again to China, as well as the planned Trans-Afghan gas pipeline – give the suppliers greater freedom but not radically so: dependence on Russia is replaced by subordination to China and, considering Beijing’s ambitions in Central Asia and its economic potential, this appears maybe even more dangerous than a unilateral orientation on Russia. Only if they have oil and gas transport routes that are of the required capacity and run to the Mediterranean ports can Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia consider their export problem solved. Construction at Turkish ports of gas liquification terminals for supplying the global gas spot market would appear to be the culmination of this process. Azerbaijan’s politicians should not be playing “against Russia” or “for the United States”. They should stand up for their own interests and those of their partners in Central Asia, since neither Russia, Europe, the USA nor China is interested in resolving the region’s internal problems: each player here pursues its own ends, which do not always coincide with those of Azerbaijan and its partners. There can be no doubt that, in the next few years, the region will see an increasingly fierce battle for access to the energy resources of the Caspian states. The most active players will definitely be Russia and China, as they view the task of consolidation in the region not only from the economic, but also the political angle. The United States and the European Union, in spite of the frequent accusations of being politically motivated, focus their attention more on the economic side of the coin, and this is precisely what explains the very limited progress in construction of the Nabucco pipeline. The financing of major new transport projects is today becoming the business of the exporters themselves: for instance, 61


Azerbaijan is currently assuming almost the entire financial burden (by extending a $200 mln. [US], 25year loan to Georgia at a symbolic 1% per annum) of the project to lay the Baku-Ahalkalaki-TbilisiCeyhan railway line and is also building, in Baku and its hinterland, terminals for storing Kazakh grain and other goods that could be exported by the new trade route. Big international companies or banks might provide substantial help but, one way or another, the task of ensuring stable exports of energy resources and other goods from the region should and will be fulfilled by the efforts of the Caspian states themselves. Russia now finds itself in a quite difficult situation, which the governments of the Caspian Basin are bound to take into consideration. The main idea pursued by Russian politicians in recent years has been to prevent any alternative routes being established for transporting oil and gas from Central Asia to Europe. The main reason for this policy we see not as any “imperialist aspirations” on the part of the Kremlin, but as the growing difficulties Russia is encountering in maintaining its energy (above all) gas balance. The huge Russian corporation Gazprom has recently been engaged in all sorts of business other than gas extraction. Its main deposits on the Yamala Peninsula – the Bovenenkovskoye and Kharasaveiskoye – are hardly being developed at all (last year, only $1 bln. were allocated out of the $17 bln. required to bring them on line), while the funds spent over the last five years on purchasing only non-core business assets ($16.4 bln.) almost match investments in development and construction of gas deposits ($18.5 bln.). As a result, at the end of 2007, the value of the core business assets used in production and transportation of gas had dropped to 50.3% of Gazprom’s total asset value 54 , while the company’s corporate debt had reached $52.8 bln., or 80.3% of the revenues from sales of gas on both the domestic and the foreign market55. In 2007, there was a 0.8% drop in gas extraction in Russia and an almost 11% fall in Gazprom profits. Yet the Russian government is trying more and more actively to draw Gazprom and the oil companies into its political games, the main one being construction of new pipelines. By 2013, when the Kremlin intends all current projects to be commissioned, 80 mln.t of oil a year will be exported along the ESPO and 35 mln.t along the Burgas-Alexandropulis branch, while the capacity of the Nord- and South Stream will be 55 and 31 bln. cub.m. of gas a year, respectively. Given the falling rate of extraction of oil and gas, fully loading these new arteries appears virtually impossible, which is the main explanation for Moscow’s interest in the energy potential of the Caspian countries. In Baku and Ashgabat negotiations held recently by the Gazprom management, during President Medvedev’s visit to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, the head of the company, A. Miller, suggested that the partners “buy up all the gas produced in these countries at market prices”. A week after the negotiations, which were hardly a total success for Gazprom, he repeated the same idea in Algeria, this time with respect to Algerian gas. Considering that drilling work has not even been launched yet at Gazprom’s major project – the huge Shtokmanovskoye deposit, one can be sure that Russia’s dependence on Central Asian gas can only grow over the coming years. Azerbaijan, as the chief operator of alternative gas and oil transit routes from Central Asia, is becoming a leading player on the energy market of the Caspian region. The most important choice in this situation will be that of transport routes for energy resources and of the main purchasing partner. For Azerbaijan, the most reasonable strategy in the current situation would, in our opinion, be to orientate sales of its own output towards the markets of the western countries and to pursue a policy geared to the Central Asian suppliers distributing their export flows in relatively balanced proportions between China, Russia and the West (supplied with the oil and gas via the TransCaspian pipeline). The capacity of the pipeline system leading from Azerbaijan to Georgia and Turkey should continue to be increased, allowing Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan room for manoeuvre in negotiations with Russia. As we see it, there will be no unique orientation of the Central Asian countries towards any single market in the near future and Russia might become a serious competitor for Azerbaijan if it goes for an increase in the capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and agrees to deliver Central Asian gas to Europe along the Blue Flow pipeline or the South Stream system. The problem here, however, is that the cost estimates for laying new pipelines in Russia are 1.4 to 5 times more than the unit cost of the Turkish sector of Blue Flow or the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline. Consequently, Russia will, most likely, try to transfer the construction costs on to future exporters and what might seem, at first glance, an attractive transit route, might prove less beneficial than supplies via 54

See: OAO Gazprom IFRS Consolidated Financial Statements, 31 December 2007 (released June 30, 2008), р. 20.

55

See: Ibid, рр. 35-36.

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the Transcaucasian pipeline, if it is in operation by that time. Moreover, considering that Russia will step up its pressure on the EU countries in an attempt to remain the monopoly supplier of gas to their markets, it is extremely likely that the Nabucco project will never get off the ground. In order, therefore, to maintain their appeal, the Trans-Caucasus gas transit routes will require gas liquification facilities at Black Sea or Mediterranean ports. When establishing relations with their partners (and for Azerbaijan, in contrast to Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan, which can orientate themselves to China, the only possibilities are Russia and the West), the leaders in Azerbaijan need to take account of the specifics of Russia’s foreign policy strategy, which is distinguished by serious radicalism, especially in the former Soviet republics. With the exception, perhaps, of Kazakhstan, Russia has as yet been unable to establish with any newly independent state of the former Soviet Union relations that the well-known Russian expert S. Markedonov calls “limited cooperation”56. The situations arising from the relations with Uzbekistan in 2002-2005, Georgia since 2004, Ukraine since 2005, as well as Moldova after 2004 and the Baltic states, show that Russia is prepared either to count these countries as its allies or to pursue a quite confrontational policy towards them. Besides, Azerbaijan has limited room for manoeuvre in the oil and gas sphere: it would not be beneficial for it to agree to sell all its gas to Russia; but it would be fatal to reject the plans to expand TransCaucasian transit for the sake of strengthening relations with Moscow. A period of cooling relations between Azerbaijan and Russia might, therefore, be anticipated over the next few years; since Russia’s policy is unlikely to change (today it is becoming increasingly clear that President Medvedev is still, in his policy with respect to the CIS countries, acting primarily as head of the Gazprom Board of Directors). Internal and Regional Problems The political situation in the Transcaucasus, where Azerbaijan is the leading power, is not, of course, determined by energy problems alone. Two other important aspects impacting upon it are the objective economic weakness of the neighbouring countries (as well as the far from ideal situation in Azerbaijan itself) and the unresolved regional conflicts restricting the Transcaucasian states’ politicians in their manoeuvring. The chief geopolitical problem for the Republic of Azerbaijan itself consists in the unresolved Karabakh conflict with Armenia, which is Russia’s chief ally in the Transcaucasus. For Georgia, a similarly acute problem is that of separatism in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose governments enjoy the protection of Moscow. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the western powers to which Azerbaijan and Georgia might appeal do not, objectively, exert a very great influence in the region and have no intention of entering into a conflict with Russia over the situation beyond the Caucasus. Even membership of NATO, towards which Georgia is striving and that the Azerbaijan leadership is considering as a possible future prospect, is unlikely to be able to change the situation. Neither the Karabakh conflict nor the clashes over Abkhazia and South Ossetia have, in my opinion, any chance of being resolved in the foreseeable future. All the participants in the Transcaucasian conflicts recognise that any disruption of the status quo might entail dramatic changes, so are not prepared to take any decisive action. Even though both Azerbaijan and Georgia have been making considerable efforts in recent years to modernise and develop their armed forces (in 2007, Azerbaijan’s military budget was 4 times the 2002 figure and that of Georgia – 10 times greater), their armed forces still objectively remain weaker than those of Armenia and Abkhazia, respectively. Besides, Armenia de jure and Abkhazia de facto are tied to Russia by collective security agreements, so it is difficult to imagine that the authorities of Azerbaijan and Georgia are prepared to launch military actions against the separatist enclaves. In the given situation, the task facing all forces with a vested interest in a civilized solution to the conflicts is to develop a longterm plan for settling them on the basis, on the one hand, of recognition of the sovereignty of Azerbaijan and Georgia over their breakaway territories and, on the other hand, in consideration of the will (and rights) of the peoples living there. As we see it, such a plan would, first of all, have to provide for “restricted sovereignty” of the separatist territories and secure this status for a period of 20-30 years, until the situation in the region becomes clearer and more predictable. All the great powers with interests in the Transcaucasus – Russia, the European Union and the USA – would declare non-interference in the conflict, while Azerbaijan and 56

See, for example: Sergei Markedonov. Limited Co-operation. Commentary to the Russian President’s tour of the East. http://www.polit.ru/analytics/2008/07/10/lez.html (retrieved on 12 July 2008).

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Georgia would need to guarantee inadmissibility of military actions on their part. UN or European Union missions could be located on the relevant territories; while the populace would be issued passports in a new format underlining the special status of their holders (rather than being citizens of Armenia [in the case of Karabakh] or Russia [in those of Abkhazia and South Ossetia]). The UN or EU missions in these autonomous areas would provide consular services for their residents, while Russia, the EU and other countries of the region would undertake to recognise these documents. The task that must really be fulfilled today is, in my opinion, not that of returning the breakaway regions to the embrace of Azerbaijan and Georgia respectively (which, judging realistically, is simply impossible), but of securing the current status for an indeterminately long period in order to preclude their actual incorporation into Armenia and Russia, which would make the situation irreversible. It seems to me that, to this end, Azerbaijan and Georgia should make certain concessions – but only provided that, going forward, the role of the main mediator transfers from Russia to the United Nations or the European Union. Subsequently, in 20-30 years’ time, the geopolitical realities in the region may be substantially different from those of today, at which time the territorial reintegration of Azerbaijan and Georgia might be achieved more benignly than might be supposed proceeding from the present experience of the 1990s and 2000s. The next serious geopolitical challenge for the Transcaucasus is posed by the actions of the United States of America and its allies in the region of the Greater Middle East, as the countries of the Persian Gulf, Iran and Iraq are called nowadays. Of particularly high priority for Azerbaijan are relations with Iran and the situation surrounding this country, which is extremely tense at the moment. Few people would doubt any more that Iran’s nuclear programme is not geared to peaceful use of nuclear power (the country has some of the world’s biggest oil and gas reserves and is hardly in need of it) but to obtaining a nuclear weapon in the relatively short term. The USA and, to an even greater extent, their main ally in the Middle East, Israel, has repeatedly declared, in one way or another, that continuation of Iran’s nuclear programme is inadmissible – and there are serious grounds for believing that they will do all within their power to prevent this programme reaching its culmination. In this situation, a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities at the end of this year, between the presidential elections in the USA and the new president assuming his post – most likely, moreover, by Israel rather than the United States – seems quite probable. This might have extremely adverse effects for Azerbaijan, considering that a large number of ethnic Azeris live in Iran and the economies of Azerbaijan and Iran have been becoming increasingly intertwined in recent times. In our opinion, the USA’s policy towards Iraq, Iran and partly Pakistan constitutes an even greater threat to the Transcaucasian region than the latter’s internal conflicts, which, let me repeat; currently appear to be frozen, rather than fraught with any open military confrontation. The Islamist threat the politicians now frequently discuss appears much less likely as a source of destabilisation of the region than reckless actions on the part of the United States. Then there is, of course, the economic situation in both the Transcaucasus itself and in the Caspian states of Central Asia. As we see it – and the economics experts are warning of this more and more often – the oil and raw material boom of the last few years has engendered a certain euphoria regarding the economic prospects of the Caspian states, but this may prove to be short-lived. Let us focus on two key aspects. On the one hand, extraction of oil and gas in the region is growing fast at the moment, but in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and partly in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, this growth is based on bringing on line new deposits where development was launched in the mid-1990s and design capacity will be reached in 2010-2012. From that time onwards, the rapid growth of extraction may be replaced by stabilisation, which could suspend the increase in exports. Considering that budget expenditures in all the Caspian countries went up by 30- 40% per annum from 2002 to 2007, such a situation might lead to a wind-down of a number of ambitious economic projects. We therefore believe that the main task facing the government of Azerbaijan today is to increase the population’s real incomes and solvent demand and to establish branches of the economy orientated towards saturating the national market. On the other hand, it is already noticeable that the economic growth in all the Caspian countries has been based not only on an influx of revenues from raw material exports, but also on large-scale foreign investments – in the form of both actual investments and loans. Over the last two years alone, the debts of private companies and banks not guaranteed by the state have risen in Azerbaijan from $6.5 to $9.5 bln. and in Kazakhstan from $29.5 to $66.5 bln57. These figures now top the official gold and currency reserves of the Central Banks of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan by 50 per cent. Moreover, local banks are rapidly expanding consumer lending, creating a rise in demand among the population. 57

See: Andrei Zlobin, “Eyes on the crisis” in: Smart Money, No. 25 (115), 14 July 2008, p. 59.

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From 2000 through 2007, the sum of consumer loans extended by Azerbaijan’s banks went up 14.2fold and by Kazakhstan banks – 41.1 times58. In this situation, the limited nature of credit resources might act as a serious restraining factor on economic development: it is no secret that Kazakhstan’s economy encountered just such problems already in the second half of 2007 and the beginning of 2008: the GDP growth rate dropped from 8.5% in 2007 to an anticipated 2008 year-end 5.3%; many banks came up against the problem of capital inadequacy, share prices fell, the housing and commercial real estate markets plummeted 40-50% in value and growth in the construction and investment spheres was replaced by a fall in the volume of new construction capacity. The authorities of Azerbaijan must carefully avoid such a turn of events, since investor confidence is slow to be restored and, in our opinion, moderate though stable growth rates are far preferable to a boom, which will inevitably be overtaken by some form of crisis. In spite of all the economic successes of recent years and the substantial revenues from energy resource exports, Azerbaijan remains a relatively poor country with an average per capita GDP of $3,633 thousand. Under these conditions, the main focus should be on forming long-term sources of currency revenues (above all from increasing extraction of energy resources and organising a full processing cycle for them, as well as establishing a leading role in transit by oil and gas from the countries of Central Asia to Turkey and Europe) and diversifying the economy by developing sectors geared to the domestic market. Azerbaijan today has all it needs for implementing a strategy of comprehensive development of the country and increasing the people’s prosperity. Yet, for this purpose, the country’s authorities must pursue their political line subtly and consistently in order to avoid becoming hostage to any of the great powers, with their own strategic interests in the Caspian region, being drawn into escalation of regional conflicts and succumbing to the illusion of the possibility of rapid economic growth based on credit market “bubbles”. Conclusion At the beginning of the 21st century, Azerbaijan is uniquely placed in geopolitical terms as, at one and the same time, a state that is a major supplier of energy resources to the world market and a country that has the possibility of controlling transit of oil and gas extracted in Central Asia to the markets of Western Europe. This leadership, formed as a result of the actions of neighbouring countries (not last among them Russia, which in recent years has exerted strong pressure on the energy sphere in Kazakhstan and particularly Turkmenistan), rather than as a consequence of the policies pursued by the country’s leadership, needs to be transformed into a strategic advantage over the coming 15-20 years – first of all by organising efficient and large-scale transit from Central Asia and further development of the oil and gas complex on the basis of active involvement of foreign technologies and investments. It is vitally important for Azerbaijan for the “southern” (trans-Caspian) transit to become, in the next few years, preferable and more beneficial for the Central Asian countries than the “northern” (Caspian area) transit. This will result in a focus on the European Union and the United States rather than Russia and China – yet this choice, however dramatic it might be, is in the long-run geopolitical interests of the Republic of Azerbaijan. At the same time, Azerbaijan’s leaders must, for a while, give up attempts to reintegrate the breakaway Karabakh territories into the country. The next few years will be so critical for establishing Azerbaijan’s new economic paradigm that it will be impossible to resolve both economic and militarypolitical problems at the same time. In this respect, we consider the way China has co-existed for decades with virtually independent Taiwan as the optimum variant. Azerbaijan must, while striving for a political solution to the Karabakh problem, show, by means of its economic development, the advantages of a reunited multi-national state over a separatist future for Karabakh. Attempts to restore Azerbaijan’s unity by force, however deplorable this might sound, will not today be crowned with success, while they might undermine fundamentally the country’s economic development potential. Political stability in the Transcaucasus is the greatest asset for Azerbaijan as an oil extraction and transit state and this stability, even in the Karabakh case, which infringes on the Azerbaijan people’s patriotic feelings, should be appreciated and no attempts be made to disrupt it.

58

See: Graham Turner, The Credit Crunch. Housing Bubbles, Globalisation and the Worldwide Economic Crisis, London, Ann Arbor (Mi.): Pluto Press, 2008, р. 133

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Finally, the main task facing the authorities of Azerbaijan is to form a comprehensive modern economy in the Republic, one that is not fixated on the oil extraction industry. All sectors of the economy should be developed, focusing particularly on the industrial sector: oil-refining, the chemical industry, machine-building and consumer goods manufacturing – for the needs of the country’s own populace and for export to neighbouring states. The experience of Turkey, which, over a period of thirty years, has been transformed from a backward, agrarian country into a modern industrial economy, should serve as an example for independent Azerbaijan. Imports of technologies, borrowing of production strategies and exchange of personnel with Turkish companies could determine a long-term trend of development for Azerbaijan’s economy (which is particularly topical, considering the cultural affinity between these two Turkic peoples and the strengthening foreign trade links between Azerbaijan and Turkey). Azerbaijan is only a small country, but one that has found itself “in the right place at the right time”. All that remains is to wish that its current and future leaders become great reformers and turn this country, which was relatively poor when it obtained independence, into the Transcaucasian equivalent of Singapore or Taiwan. The conditions are all there; only the future will tell whether such ambitious plans are to be realised. Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.59-71.

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Azerbaijan: realizing the vision Zeyno Baran Director, Center for Eurasian Policy Hudson Institute Despite Azerbaijan's relatively small size (less than 90,000 square kilometers) and population (under 9 million people), it is far from small in its regional and global influence. In particular, its role in the establishment of the Caspian-EU corridor for energy and transportation linkages has increased Azerbaijan’s international standing considerably. This article will focus primarily on the conceptualization and realization of strategic European and Eurasian energy projects that involve Azerbaijan. It will also cite some related areas, such as regional cooperation, to demonstrate that Azerbaijan is emerging as a pivotal country in a critically important region. Establishing the East-West Corridor Thanks to its own rich oil and gas resources, as well as its interest in assisting the transit of Central Asian resources, Azerbaijan is becoming a critical new energy supplier for Europe, helping European countries to diversify energy sources and routes. Following its independence in 1991, Azerbaijan’s rise to prominence began with the signing of the “Contract of the Century” in 1994. This was the first agreement signed between Azerbaijan and foreign energy companies, and it paved the way for all future oil and gas development in the region. The country's president at the time, Heydar Aliyev, made the visionary decision to grant energy concessions to American, European, Russian, and Turkish companies, thereby giving them all a stake in his country’s stability and security. The Aliyev administration then committed itself to the establishment of multiple export routes for its oil so that the country would not be dependent on a single route (or country) and thus minimize its vulnerability to political and economic pressure. First, two oil pipelines were built connecting Baku to Black Sea ports — one to Novorossiysk in Russia, another to the Georgian city of Supsa. Soon, it became clear that more export options would be needed in order to handle the high volume of oil expected to be produced in Azerbaijan’s offshore fields. Given its location, Azerbaijan had four options. The oil-producing companies preferred to simply expand the two existing pipelines — the cheapest solution. However, since all Black Sea tanker shipments must pass through the dangerously narrow Turkish Straits, Ankara objected, endorsing instead the construction of a new pipeline from Baku to its Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. A third option was to build another route via Russia, but that would have made no sense for Azerbaijan’s desire to diversify and consolidate its energy independence. A pipeline via Iran was the fourth option and the second-best option for the oil companies — because of the short distance and lower costs. Sending its oil via Iran made even less sense for Azerbaijan, not only because Iran was on hostile terms with the West, but also because it had supported Armenia in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Close relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan, notably on a personal level between Aliyev and his Turkish counterpart Suleyman Demirel, ultimately made the Turkish option the most appealing. After all, the two countries shared so many historic, cultural, religious and ethnic links that they referred to each other as “one nation, two states”. An additional benefit of the Turkish option was Turkey's NATO membership and strategic partnership with the United States. Aliyev wanted to secure US support for a major non-Russian pipeline, as the Russians would inevitably oppose a breakup of their monopoly. After the Baku-Ceyhan option was adopted by Aliyev, there was another key question that had to be answered: would the pipeline cross Armenia (a shorter route), or travel around it via Georgia? If Yerevan had agreed on a settlement of the Karabakh issue, Azerbaijan and Turkey would have supported the Armenian route. However, even in the event of a peace agreement, there were still obvious risks in committing to a several-billion-dollar project through an area to which full-scale conflict could return at any time. In the end, Armenia would not be seduced by the prospect of regional integration or transit revenues. Thus, the Georgian route was chosen, and the pipeline was named Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC). Of course, the BTC project would not have been realized if it did not make commercial sense. The oil companies were initially reluctant to commit themselves to this multi-billion dollar pipeline. 67


Regardless of the political will behind BTC, neither the oil companies nor the international financiers, which included the World Bank (via the IFC) and the EBRD, would have undertaken such a massive project unless it made good business sense. In the end, the attractive legal, political and economic incentives the three governments offered made BTC a greatly profitable project. Thanks to BTC, the three governments formed a close trilateral partnership, as the success of one became dependent on the two others. This partnership became even stronger after huge volumes of gas were discovered in Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz offshore fields. Aliyev, along with the companies involved in both the oil and gas fields (led by BP), once again selected a Caucasian route — to run parallel with BTC. The three countries and numerous firms then spearheaded the construction of what was named the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP), from Baku to the Turkish city of Erzurum. The BTC and the SCP pipelines are particularly important because they provide Azerbaijan with major oil and gas export routes that are not controlled by Russia. Energy has long been a tool by which the Kremlin exerts influence; both SCP and BTC considerably reduce this leverage on Azerbaijan. Baku now has the ability to resist potential pressure from Moscow, which does not like its former vassals to drift out of its sphere of influence. In fact, Russia has used a variety of scare and pressure tactics in an attempt to bully countries and companies away from BTC and SCP — including shutting down gas exports to Georgia in the middle of winter. In the end, the pipelines were made possible thanks to the close partnership that existed among Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, together with unwavering US political support, the commercial viability of the projects, and the fact that the relatively weak and divided Russian government under Boris Yeltsin was unable to mount an effective campaign to prevent it. Contributing to European Energy Security Completed in 2006, BTC and SCP were only the first legs of a larger transport corridor for Caspian and Central Asian hydrocarbons to Europe. In November 2007, a gas pipeline connecting Turkey and Greece was inaugurated. Thanks to this Turkey-Greece pipeline, gas from Azerbaijan can for the first time flow all the way to the EU free from Russian control. Construction will soon begin on an extension of the Turkey-Greece connection to Italy and plans are in the works for the massive Nabucco gas pipeline that will stretch from Turkey, across the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, and into Austria. Nabucco, with a planned capacity of 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year is a critical part of Europe’s energy diversification strategy. The pipeline is categorized as an EU “priority project” and has the full support of the United States. A key objective of these gas pipeline projects is to overcome Europe’s increasing dependence on Russian and Russian-supplied natural gas. Collectively, the twenty seven countries of the European Union rely on Russia for nearly 50 percent of their gas imports — representing around 25 percent of the bloc’s total gas consumption. This dependence is not distributed evenly. As one heads eastward, Russia’s share of the energy supply grows ever larger. Of the ten EU nations that rely on Russia for at least 75 percent of their gas imports, seven once lay behind the Iron Curtain 59. This dependence is troubling due to the somewhat unique nature of natural gas as a tradable commodity — there is no global market, and the construction of costly pipelines effectively locks consumers into a prolonged contract with producers. This means that Moscow can more easily translate dependence into political and economic leverage. Natural gas is vital to the economies of many European nations — and the fuel’s primacy is growing. The prospect of being forced to pay a higher price for that gas, or even having the supply of that gas curtailed, can exert a powerful influence on a country’s domestic, and especially foreign, policies. Despite Nabucco’s importance to Europe’s energy security, and despite official support from Brussels, the future of the project remains uncertain. Just as it did for the SCP and BTC pipelines, Moscow strongly opposes Nabucco and is sparing no effort to prevent its construction. Unfortunately for the project's future, the current Russian administration is far more organized, and its power far more centralized, than that of the 1990s. Moscow has proposed its own pipeline in Southeast Europe, one that would mirror the Nabucco route closely, and the Russian leadership never misses an opportunity to deride the EU-backed pipeline as unrealistic or infeasible. The Russian pipeline is known as South Stream and would cross under the Black Sea to Bulgaria, where it would split into two spurs: one heading west

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The exceptions are Finland, Greece, and Austria — all of which are geographically in the east of Europe.

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through Greece, across the Ionian Sea, and into Italy; and one heading north through Serbia, Hungary, and potentially Austria. Particularly with regards to external energy policy, the European Union lacks solidarity. The Kremlin has exploited this disunity in a policy that could best be described as “divide and conquer.” Top Russian leadership — including then- President Vladimir Putin — have frequently traveled to countries along Nabucco’s route in an effort to persuade them to join South Stream. Hungary and Bulgaria have already committed to South Stream as well, and Austria is close to doing so. Despite assurances from member state and EU officials that Nabucco and South Stream can coexist, it is utterly impossible to build a pipeline such as Nabucco — which will cost upwards of €4.6 billion — unless investors are confident gas demand will be high enough for them to make a profit. And many investors rightly doubt that demand in European countries will be, at least in the short term, large enough to justify Nabucco if they are also being supplied by additional Russian gas from South Stream. Thanks to the strategic vision of its leadership under President Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani government fully supports Nabucco’s construction and has publicly stated that it has sufficient gas production potential to supply the first phase of the pipeline. In fact, recent discoveries made by the consortium of companies operating in the Shah Deniz gas field indicate that there are far more reserves there than previously estimated. While the US is bullish about Azerbaijan and its potential as a major new gas supplier for Europe, many in Europe remain skeptical—in part because of Russian propaganda indicating otherwise. In many ways this is a replay of the period before the completion of BTC; then too the US was fully confident in the estimates, whereas most Europeans were convinced there would not be sufficient volume to make this oil pipeline commercially viable. Today, many in the EU hail BTC as critical to European energy security; as EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs stated, this pipeline is a “milestone infrastructure project which is of the highest importance for the economic development of all participating countries as well as for the security of energy supply in Europe and worldwide.”60 Realizing that the Caspian-Europe gas corridor would be even more attractive to potential investors with Turkmenistan on board, Baku has also made efforts to improve relations with Ashgabat. In March 2008, Turkmenistan reopened its embassy in Baku after a seven-year closure, a move that reflects substantial progress in Turkmen-Azeri relations. This rapprochement has enabled progress on the delimitation of contested Caspian Sea hydrocarbon deposits, including the previously intractable dispute over the Serdar/Kyapaz formation. Relations between Heydar Aliyev and former Turkmen president Saparmurat Niyazov were never stellar, but they truly began to sour in 1997, when the two clashed over the ownership of the Serdar/Kyapaz oil field. Aliyev and Niyazov each stubbornly refused to yield on their positions and eventually Ashgabat withdrew its ambassador to Azerbaijan in 2001. Since then, both Heydar Aliyev and Niyazov have passed away and been succeeded by younger leaders who do not have any personal enmity and are thus more open to reconciliation. Moreover, as noted earlier, President Ilham Aliyev has shown true leadership in trying to resolve bilateral issues so the East-West corridor can reach its full potential. In the end, the two countries reached sufficient common understanding that it became possible for Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdymuk - hammedov to travel to Baku in May — an important step, as it was the first state visit by a Turkmen leader in twelve years. A solid relationship between these two Caspian Sea littoral states may indeed be a necessary prerequisite to give confidence to potential investors in Nabucco. Without the potential of a trans-Caspian gas pipeline being built to transport additional supplies from Turkmenistan, Nabucco may struggle to win the necessary commitment of the countries involved, which would also have a negative impact on investors' willingness to lend the needed financial backing. After all, even under the most optimistic scenario, given its volume commitments to TGI, as well as Turkey’s, Georgia’s and its own domestic consumption, Azerbaijan will only be able to supply the first phase of Nabucco; additional sources of gas may need to be identified to convince investors of the pipeline’s commercial viability. Turkmenistan, with its vast, largely undeveloped natural gas reserves is the ideal candidate to supplement Azeri gas in Nabucco. In fact, in April, Berdymukhammedov pledged to provide 10 bcm per year for this pipeline in order to send this gas directly to Europe. The EU, of course, is optimistic that Nabucco can also be sourced by Middle Eastern gas. For now the most frequently mentioned potential supplier is Iraq, but the highly uncertain future of that country makes investors cautious. There is also potential for Egyptian and Qatari gas, but in these cases there are 60

Andris Piebalgs, “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is a milestone project for security of supply.” Speech delivered in Baku, 25 May 2005.

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serious questions over volume. And then there is of course the Iranian option, which cannot be discussed at least until the nuclear issue is resolved. Even then, Iran’s continued support for terrorism may make it impossible to involve it in such a critical project. Most importantly, Iran currently is short on gas — its huge reserves remain undeveloped and even when there is Western technology available, huge domestic needs will make it difficult for Iran to export gas. In fact, this year Iran had to import gas from Azerbaijan. Though bilateral relations are not great, they are predictable. In general, Iran does not get involved in Azerbaijan’s domestic affairs, while Azerbaijan conspicuously stays out of Iranian developments, especially when it comes to the fate of the ethnic Azeri community in adjacent regions of northern Iran. Thus, after Iran's shortage, it was natural for Azerbaijan to cooperate with its neighbor by sending it gas. Though more committed to European energy security than are many European leaders themselves, President Aliyev certainly cannot push much harder for either Nabucco or the trans-Caspian pipeline than the Europeans — the projects’ primary beneficiaries — are willing to push themselves. European governments and companies must come forward and offer a deal. They need to take ownership for the projects as gas needs to be “pulled” from the region. Most importantly, they must be willing to stand up to Moscow, something which Aliyev has done on multiple occasions for a very simple reason: these projects are not meant to be anti-Russian, but simply represent a strategically important direct connection from the Caspian to Europe. In fact, even if Europe failed to muster the necessary political will and commitment to complete the Nabucco project, Azerbaijan has other options for exporting its gas to the West. There is the aforementioned SCP and the Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline, which will have an eventual capacity of 11 bcm. In addition, Azerbaijan could also transport its gas across the Black Sea to Europe. This project, called White Stream, would connect the SCP to Supsa. From there, pipe would be laid beneath the Black Sea to either directly to Romania or first going to Ukraine and then to Romania, where it would connect with existing transport infrastructure. Alternatively, White Stream could utilize a system of LNG tankers to ferry gas from Supsa across the Black Sea61. Initial feasibility studies are in the works to determine the commercial viability of these various options. Baku is already serving as a corridor for Central Asian oil to Europe, and a lot more oil is expected to flow from the Caspian, especially Kazakhstan. During the planning phase of BTC, the possibility of supplying the pipeline with Kazakh oil was frequently discussed. In January 2007, Kazakhstan’s state energy company signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the development of a tanker route from Kuryk to Baku, where it would be pumped to the Georgian port of Supsa. From there, it would be shuttled across the Black Sea to Romania or Ukraine. Alternatively, Kazakh oil could be pumped into the BTC pipeline. In any case, this Caspian tanker route is expected to cost $3 billion and could be operational by 2010 or 2011; about the same time that Kazakhstan’s massive Kashagan field is to start producing. However, given the substantial production potential of Kazakhstan, the shuttle system would eventually be insufficient (and costly). Ideally, a trans-Caspian oil pipeline should be constructed. The plan for this Caspian tanker system highlights the cooperation that is occurring among Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine — particularly in the oil sector. The leaders of these three countries, all of whom are members of the regional cooperation organization GUAM, have met several times over the past two years to discuss supplying Ukraine’s Odesa-Brody pipeline with Azeri and Kazakh oil. They have been joined at these summits by the Presidents of Poland and Lithuania, both of whom support filling Odesa-Brody with Caspian oil. Odesa-Brody was actually built for that purpose but failed to secure supply commitments from oil producers. As such, it has been operating in reverse direction ever since, transporting Russian crude from Brody to Odesa. In addition to switching Odesa-Brody back to its intended direction, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania all support extending the pipeline to the Polish city of Płock. From there, it would connect to the existing Polish network, enabling oil to continue to the Baltic Sea oil terminal of Gdańsk. SOCAR, the state oil company of Azerbaijan, is interested in utilizing the Black Sea as a transit route for Azeri and Kazakh oil. Investing Abroad Georgia, by virtue of its geographic location, is vital to Azerbaijan’s prosperity. As noted earlier, Azerbaijan’s only other options for getting its natural resources to market are via Iran, Russia and 61

“White Stream Woos Majors,” Platts Energy in East Europe, Iss. 139, May 9, 2008, p. 24.

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Armenia, each of which are undesirable for a number of reasons. Thus, ensuring Georgia’s success and stability is an important policy objective for Azerbaijan. For two consecutive winters (2005/2006 and 2006/2007), Baku provided gas supplies to Georgia at a discounted price, enabling the latter to resist Russian pressure tactics. In early 2007, when Moscow suspended gas supplies to Georgia, the Azerbaijani government provided emergency supplies to its beleaguered neighbor. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili labeled this an act of “political heroism” by his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev. Indeed, Aliyev can be credited with another such act: an Azerbaijani loan is paying for Georgia’s portion of the $400 million Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad. This is a strategically important project, as it will be the first railway linking Georgia and Turkey and significantly improving the transportation of people and goods from Asia to Europe. Given Georgia’s economic difficulties, Azerbaijan extended over $200 million (US) in credit to its neighbor to cover construction costs of the Georgian section of the project — thus allowing construction to begin without any further delays and ensure that the railway will be completed by 2010. A number of connections already exist between Turkey and Europe, and both Kazakhstan and China have already indicated their interest in utilizing the railway. This would allow for goods to be transported overland from the Far East all the way to Europe, drastically cutting down on shipping time compared to sea routes. Azerbaijan is also an active investor in Georgia’s energy sector. SOCAR, which has established a Georgian subsidiary, made its first large investment in early 2007, acquiring the Kulevi oil terminal near the Black Sea town of Poti. The Kulevi terminal, which SOCAR officially launched on May 16, 2008, currently has a capacity of 10 million tons per year; SOCAR has stated its intention of eventually doubling this figure to 20 million tons per year. The Azeri company also plans to construct a 5 to 10 million ton-capacity refinery at Kulevi, which is supplied with oil by rail. In addition, SOCAR owns and operates a number of retail fuel stations in Georgia, and intends to invest $35 million towards the construction of additional stations across the country.62 Georgia is only the first step in Azerbaijan’s ambitious international investment plans, which seem to stress the transportation of crude oil across the Black Sea, where it will be processed by jointly or wholly Azeri-owned refineries. In fact, in January 2008, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko announced that SOCAR would soon construct a refinery in his country. The following month, Azeri Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev stated that the government has received offers to build refineries in a variety of other East European countries including Romania, Bulgaria, and Poland63. SOCAR had earlier made an attempt to acquire a 75 percent stake in Rompetrol, the state oil company of Romania, but lost out to Kazakhstan’s KazMunaiGaz. While this defeat was disappointing to SOCAR, it does not diminish the prospects of Black Sea oil transport; in February 2008, KazMunaiGaz purchased Georgia’s 15 million ton-capacity Batumi oil terminal. Like Kulevi, this facility is supplied with oil by railcar via Azerbaijan. The recent acquisition of downstream infrastructure by oil producers bodes well for the Black Sea oil trade. SOCAR and KazMunaiGaz are far more inclined to supply oil to terminals and refineries in which they have interests. While Ukraine and its Odesa-Brody pipeline certainly have the potential to transport Caspian oil, it is Romania that could truly evolve into a major transit corridor. Romania is a staunch advocate of Europe’s energy diversification and has strongly supported Nabucco and related pipeline projects. In fact, Romania is the only member of Nabucco that has not been swayed by Moscow to join a Russian pipeline project. SOCAR opened an office in Romania in 2006; this is likely only the first step in what might become a deeper partnership — for Azerbaijan, partnership with Romania would mean a direct link to the EU. SOCAR is also an active investor in Turkey; it formed a joint venture with the Istanbul-based Turcas Petrol in December 2006. Through this venture, SOCAR plans to construct a 10 to 20 million ton capacity refinery at Ceyhan, investing over $4 billion in the region64. The SOCAR-Turcas joint venture — together with Saudi company Injaz — also recently acquired a 51 percent stake in Petkim, Turkey’s largest petrochemical company65. However, relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan have been strained by an 62

SOCAR already controls 40 percent of the wholesale fuel market in Georgia.

http://www.investingeorgia.org/news/view/1021. 63

http://www.energypublisher.com/article.asp?id=14258.

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http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=44374. http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKIST00168520080304.

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ongoing disagreement over the nature of gas transit for the proposed Nabucco pipeline. Rather than receive a transit fee for Azerbaijani gas, Ankara wants to purchase it at the border and resell it to European customers at a higher price. This arrangement would also enable Turkey to supply its own consumers with cheaper gas. Azerbaijan, however, understandably wants to reach export deals directly with the EU countries, and the Europeans prefer to buy gas directly from the supplier as well. So far, this disagreement has contributed to the delays in Nabucco. Avoiding the Oil Curse In addition to crafting a sound external energy policy, Azerbaijan has also done a commendable job managing its vast oil and gas wealth. Large endowments of natural resources can be both a gift and a curse. Thus far, Azerbaijan has avoided the worst of the symptoms that typically plague economies overly-dependent upon natural resources. However, inflation was still 16.3 percent in 2007 and is expected to stay in double digits in 2008. Moreover, the economic performance of the country is still closely tied to that of the oil and gas sector. Approximately 84 percent of Azerbaijan’s export revenue in 2006 came from oil sales. Baku is well aware of the dysfunction that can result from over-reliance on the energy sector and has made diversification a priority. The government seeks to expand output in the tourism, agriculture, finance, textiles, manufacturing and transportation sectors. This strategy is bearing fruit: non-energy sector economic production grew eight percent in 2006, with non-energy industrial production rising by seven percent. Azerbaijan has also committed itself to the transparent and accountable management of its resource rents. It was one of the first countries to sign the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a British government-proposed program for improving responsible management of natural resource wealth. Azerbaijan also established the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) in 1999 to manage its growing oil revenues. A portion of Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon sector revenues is set aside in SOFAZ to be used for a variety of public works, while others are saved for use when global energy prices fall. SOFAZ also acts as an interest-earning savings account, one that will benefit future generations even after oil and gas reserves have been depleted. Although the operation of SOFAZ is relatively transparent, it lacks sufficient oversight and the rules governing the disbursement of funds are ambiguous66. This is an area that requires continued attention. Baku has clearly made a significant commitment to responsible stewardship of its oil and gas resources. To do otherwise would mean risking everything that Heydar Aliyev planned for the country. If Azerbaijan succumbs to the symptoms of Dutch Disease (inter alia: spiraling inflation, low growth in the non-extractive sector, poor governance, and a lack of transparency), its population could increasingly fall sway to political Islam. In fact, attacking the secular, moderate nature of Azeri Islam has long been a goal of a number of groups and organizations. They view Azerbaijan as the antithesis of what they are trying to promote: that is, the fusion of religion and government. At the same time, failing to prevent the resource curse would also derail Azerbaijan from its current path towards the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Due to its geography, religion, and ethnicity, Azerbaijan is often viewed as a Central Asian republic. Generally, people are more inclined to consider Georgia and/or Armenia as European or “Western” countries than they are Azerbaijan. Yet, a country’s status as “Western” is certainly not contingent upon geography or religion or ethnicity but upon values. Azerbaijan, like Georgia, already embraces many values of the West. But these shared values could be endangered if care is not taken to safeguard against the degradation of governance, rule of law and human rights that often plagues resourcedependent countries. In this context, it is important to note the activities of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, which was established in April 2004 with the goal of conducting programs and funding projects that supported the national vision of the former President. Among its many objectives are the promotion of religious tolerance, the development of Azerbaijan’s human capital and the implementation of public works projects. Particular emphasis is placed on supporting education and research. The Foundation is sending Azerbaijani students to Western schools as well as improving the quality of local institutions. A welleducated workforce of independent thinkers is vital to the success of a nation. The Foundation represents both an attempt to honor the legacy of the country’s first president, but also to ensure that the nation he led for so long remains true to its principles. 66

Robert Ebel, ed., Caspian Oil Windfalls: Who Will Benefit?, Open Society Institute: New York, 2003.

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Progress towards that goal has been mixed. While Azerbaijan’s transparency and accountability certainly do not compare to that of Norway, its circumstances also differ dramatically. For one thing, Azerbaijan is surrounded by two large states — Russia and Iran — with which it has a history of antagonistic relations and another — Armenia — with which it has an active territorial dispute. Indeed, the dispute with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is a very important concern of the Azerbaijani government. Given the tension between the two countries, it is understandable that Azerbaijan would wish to invest some of its resource revenue in military improvements, even though armed conflict remains a last resort for Baku. Looking Ahead Following years of positive interaction with the West, especially through partnerships in strategic energy projects, Azerbaijan has cemented its orientation towards a future in European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. It has also emerged as a responsible stakeholder in its region, assisting its neighbors in difficult times, and thereby solidifying their independence and prosperity. In addition to maintaining good relations with Russia, Azerbaijan has contributed to the development of GUAM, resumed its relations with Turkmenistan, enhanced its ties to Israel and established solid relations with new EU and NATO members like Romania and Poland, among others. It has also become a strong partner for the United States, and even contributed troops to missions in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq. The only neighbor with which Azerbaijan has serious problems is Armenia; the two countries have remained locked in conflict over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh since war began in 1993. Despite the best efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group, tasked with resolving the conflict, a solution has still not been found to this economically, diplomatically, politically and even emotionally-taxing issue. Furthermore, there are tens of thousands of internally displaced people who are highly susceptible to influence by radical Islamist groups. While as of the end of 2007 these people no longer live in refugee camps, and instead have been moved to temporary houses courtesy of SOFAZ, their unresolved status still leaves them vulnerable to radicalism. Thus far Azerbaijan is developing on the path of Westernization as a unique energy - rich Muslimmajority nation with a secular and democratic government. Impressively, Azerbaijan is doing all this without losing touch with its heritage. Azerbaijan was after all the first Muslim nation to declare a secular and democratic republic in 1918. Thanks to its history, culture and traditions, the Azerbaijani understanding and practice of Islam is moderate and tolerant; Christian and Jewish citizens are treated with respect and equality. In sum, after just over a decade of independence, while there are certainly shortcomings in Azerbaijani democracy, the trend is quite promising. Moreover, its leadership is conscious of the potential “resource curse” that has afflicted many resource rich nations, and thus is diversifying its economy. Staying on this path, Azerbaijan has great potential as a rising star in the strategic Eurasian region. Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.125-136.

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Azerbaijan in international focus Cем Оğuz Political Analyst Turkish Daily News On October 18, 1991, just two months after the abortive coup against the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in Moscow, the Supreme Council of Azerbaijan adopted a declaration of independence which was affirmed by a nationwide referendum in December, when the Soviet Union was officially dissolved. During this turbulent transitional period, the independence of Azerbaijan actually attracted little attention among the world public. But the war with Armenia, during which the country lost control of nearly twenty percent of its territory, meant its name was soon elevated from the frontlines to the headlines, among the Western media in particular. Azerbaijan’s popularity, and thus publicity, further rocketed when during the late 1990’s energy issues became a primary concern of international politics. Actually, the importance of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas reserves is a well-known fact and there is no need to over emphasise this. Its importance has even been recognized by popular culture. Coinciding with discussions on the need to provide multiple transport options for Caspian exporters, and Azerbaijan in particular, was the 1999 James Bond film, “The World is not Enough,” which made intriguing references to the notorious Baku-Ceyhan pipeline project. But what instead needs to be underscored is Azerbaijan’s significance in terms of energy safety and supply in the present world. Given the fact that Europe’s growing energy needs are considered an effective foreign policy stick by certain countries as well as the ongoing instability in the Middle East in general, and the Gulf region in particular, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan is one of the West’s most reliable partners in this regard. Azerbaijan’s Armenian-Occupied Territories Behind the foreign policy of any country, there are undeniably a great variety of parameters that play significant roles but in Azerbaijan’s case, the single most important one is of course its Armenian occupied territories. In reality, this is not only a bilateral problem but one that also has serious regional ramifications. First and foremost, it diminishes the importance of the Southern Caucasus which has in better circumstances served as a useful bridge between the East and West, or Europe and Asia. Unfortunately, the Armenian occupation has continued for more than 15 years and, I regret to say, the indifferent and sometimes hypocritical approach shown by the international community has strengthened Armenia’s ongoing non-conciliatory standpoint. I think that it is important here that we take a look at some of the manifestations of this indifferent and hypocritical attitude. Any dispute, be it between individuals or states, can only be solved through compromise. At present, the Armenian people’s desire for change and compromise is a very clear-cut fact. The street demonstrations that took place subsequent to the presidential elections in February precisely exemplify that phenomenon. Just a couple of days after the results were announced, the Armenian opposition, under the leadership of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, declared that the elections had been rigged. To judge whether the elections were indeed rigged is of course not the business of any outsider, this author included. By bringing it up I hope to draw readers’ attention to how these allegations and street demonstrations were met by the international community. During the initial days, the events attracted the attention of both the Western media and the capitals. Soon, however, this interest melted away. Yet the thoughts and ideas Ter-Petrosyan expressed during his election campaign were of grave importance, because they clearly demonstrated that an Armenian politician was for the first time initiating a process of self-critique and introspection. His messages with regard to the future of the region and Armenia’s relations with either Turkey or Azerbaijan were indeed promising. He was reported to have maintained, for instance, that “as a result of the criminal policies of the current [Armenian] government, Azerbaijan has only toughened its position and will not seek compromise.” This process needed to be encouraged by the international community and the Western countries in particular. At least, it was an important sign of willingness for compromise. 

The substance of this article is basically derived from a speech made at the international conference held in Baku, Azerbaijan on May 23, 2008 and titled “Azerbaijan 2008: Paths to Modernization”.

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But could someone please enlighten me on what has transpired since? Who can now recall Petrosyan’s just protest? What happened to the international community’s sensitivities with regard to the concept of free and fair elections? On that point, let me pose a very simple but naive question: If it were not Armenia but another ex- Soviet country, what would have been the response of our dear Western friends? I believe my disappointment is also shared by a considerable number of Azeri politicians. Instead of a place of calm, the region has become a zone of instability. Let me share an anecdote in that regard: During my visit to Azerbaijan in January, I was having a chat with a senior Azeri authority. I was interested in how he saw the presidential elections in Armenia. In particular, I wanted to know what he thought about the likelihood of Levon Ter-Petrossian being elected. “I wish he could be,” he simply said. He then added that approximately one tenth of Azerbaijan’s annual budget was spent on the military but that they would prefer to direct that money towards solutions to the problems Azeri people are facing every day. Isn’t that a promising line of thinking? I am pretty sure that our common sensical Armenian friends are of the same opinion. Consider this: Armenia’s population is normally 3 million, but 1.2 million of these people have moved abroad. The number of Armenians who are illegally working in Turkey today is believed to have exceeded 60,000. What might the reasons behind this setback be? Is it not the inevitable outcome of the Armenian regime’s non-conciliatory mentality? The Turkish Standpoint A distinguished U.S. strategist once described change in foreign policy with the following words: “A radical change in foreign policy resembles the all-of-a-sudden manoeuvring of an aircraft carrier. Don’t expect it to happen that fast.” As you know, Ankara’s closure of its border with Armenia has been the focal point of our Western friends’ persistent criticism directed towards Turkey’s Armenia policy and has even found a place in every European Union document related to its membership bid. They question why Turkey insists on supporting Azerbaijan and why Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh are mortgaging Turkey’s policy options. Wouldn’t it be more realistic, they say, to open the borders with Armenia, especially at a time when Turkey is aspiring to become a member of the European Union? I encounter such questions very frequently, but find them rather naive. It is like asking the US why it supports Israel. Our Armenian friends, in turn, vividly claim that the Turkish authorities in Ankara “insist on maintaining the last closed border in Europe as a tool to exert pressure on Armenia and to punish Armenians for defending their rights and not renouncing their past.” They thus want the Western countries to exert pressure on us to open our border with Armenia. In the Turkish view, the Armenian occupation is first and foremost a matter of ethics. Besides, we should also not forget that Ankara decided to close the border in April 1993 essentially in response to Armenia’s ambivalence over the recognition of its common border with Turkey, as well as Armenian aggression directed toward Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. That being said, expecting Turkey to make a unilateral gesture such as the opening of the border is the same as expecting an aircraft carrier to make a sudden, radical manoeuvre. The overwhelming majority of Turks actually fear that Turkey’s unilateral opening of the border would eventually lead to a situation resembling that on the tiny island of Cyprus, in the past mainly characterized by Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos’ non-conciliatory approach. In a similar way, they maintain, such a decision would strengthen the Armenian regime’s belief that there is no need for compromise for either the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations or a resolution to either the Karabakh dispute or the Armenian-occupied Azeri territories. Thus, Turks, by and large, expect the Western countries, those in the European Parliament or the U.S. Congress in particular, to show the same sensitivity they self-sacrificing as well as zealously do to the Armenian allegations of “genocide” to the ongoing Armenian occupation of Azeri territories as well. They question why our Western allies have failed to help the Armenian public foster conditions in which taboos such as the “occupation” or “Greater Armenia” can be discussed freely or Armenian politicians, as part of attempts for a “win-win” situation for each side, are not forced to compromise. Democracy 75


Before wrapping up, I also want to focus on the way the majority of our Western friends’ approach most developing countries, Azerbaijan included, in respect to democratic accomplishments. This is a task that promptly brings to mind the U.S. experience in Iraq, a country the neo-cons in the Bush administration thought they might treat as a laboratory, or a blank page to be filled as they wished. They believed democracy and a free market economy in Iraq, regardless of the authentic internal dynamics of the Iraqi people, could be established through a revolution above, or as a part of social engineering, even within a very short period of time. One of the numerous unforgettable post-U.S. invasion episodes mentioned in L. Paul Bremer III’s memoirs, titled “My Year in Iraq,” in fact speaks for itself. In May 2003, Bremer arrived in Iraq as the U.S. presidential envoy and in July President Bush appointed him as the head of the Coalition Provisional Authority, a post resembling that of a proconsul. With a group of young but enthusiastic U.S. assistants, he immediately embarked on “helping to put Iraq back together.” It was a difficult job. Daily economic issues and security in particular required urgent action. The new Iraq needed a modern economy. Having these concerns in mind, he asked his top economic adviser, Peter McPherson, whether he thought they could “teach influential Iraqis the basics of a free market economy.” His friend Peter from Michigan State University was “an educator” nevertheless. So began “two months of Monday night economic seminars that became quite popular among Iraqis.” What do you think was the eventual result of these seminars? I humbly believe that Iraq has indeed become a free market, at least for terrorists where they can shop for everything needed for further assaults. I respect our Western allies’ sensitivity to democratic norms or civil rights and am absolutely aware that neither of them can actually be approached with excuses or pretexts in hands, as is widely done by leaders of developing countries. Nevertheless, one should also not forget the concept of evolution in any particular country. How then are we going to draw the fine line between excuses on the one hand and the authentic internal dynamics of respective countries on the other? This is a question of grave importance which immediately brings to mind British writer George Orwell’s piece on World War II-era pamphlets, whose accomplishments in journalism are as significant and magnificent as his literature. In his editorial for the Tribune in 1944, he pointed out a profound fact about these documents: His collection of pamphlets, from all points of the political spectrum, actually contained the same mentality. Unfortunately, nobody was searching for the truth; everybody was putting forward a case with complete disregard for fairness or accuracy. The most plainly obvious factors were ignored by those who did not want to see them. This mentality blinded people to subjective considerations. Pacifists for instance, by obstructing the war, were actually believed to be aiding the Nazis. In addition, the Trotskyites were accused of being Hitler’s agents, since criticizing the Soviet Union meant helping Nazi Germany. The fact that pacifists or Trotskyites might personally be hostile to fascism or Nazi Germany was irrelevant. Orwell eventually warned that “if you disregard people’s motives, it becomes much harder to foresee their actions.” And an opponent, whatever the circumstances are, always “deserves a fair hearing.” The important thing is to “discover which individuals are honest and which are not.” I have been travelling to Azerbaijan since 1993 and I must admit that I have never witnessed such intense change as is taking place nowadays. The country is changing in every aspect. As in every country, there are of course things in Azerbaijan to criticize. When engaging in a critical analysis, however, one should keep in mind that the Azeri republic is still young and needs more time. In that regard, as Orwell pointed out, it is President İlham Aliyev’s motives and intentions that make me confident about Azerbaijan’s future. He indeed deserves a fair hearing…. Azerbaijan Focus.-2009.-Vol.1(1).-S.137-141.

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Azerbaijan at UNESCO The renowned opera Leyli and Majnun by the eminent composer Uzeyir Hajibeijov turned 100 in 2008 Within the framework of the UNESCO programme to celebrate the anniversaries of eminent personalities and historic events, the 34th session of the General Conference of UNESCO decided to officially mark the 100th anniversaries of the first staging of "Leyli and Majnun", of the national artist Sattar Bahlulzadeh, the writer Mir Jalal Pashayev and Academician Musa Aliyev in 2008-2009. The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, issued an order on 31 January 2008 on the organization of events to celebrate these jubilees. The order reads: "The first staging of the opera "Leyli and Majnun" by the brilliant Azerbaijani composer Uzeyir Hajibeyov in 1908 opened a new epoch in the history of our national musical culture. The opera "Leyli and Majnun", created from an organic synthesis of mugham and European opera, is a real encyclopaedia of Azerbaijani music. The opera genre of the Islamic East was founded by this first example of a mugham opera. The name of the national artist, laureate of the State Award, Sattar Bahlulzadeh, will remain forever in the annals of Azerbaijani fine arts as one of the founders of its school of landscape painting. Having discovered new shades of different colours, Sattar Bahlulzade created beautiful paintings from the harmony of those colours. The artist's paintings, created in original style and outstanding for the richness of their palette, poetic mood and colourful beauty, are now among the most valuable jewels of the nation's fine arts. The eminent representative of the history of national literary-artistic thought of the 20th century, writer Mir Jalal Pashayev, played a significant role and enriched the development of Azerbaijani literature. Mir Jalal Pashayev is well-known as a writer who founded a new synthesis of the national oeuvre and advanced traditions of our classical artistic heritage and who inspired literature. But he was also a renowned scientist-researcher. The famous scientist-geologist Musa Aliyev was rector of the present Azerbaijan State Oil Academy from 1939-1941 and President of the Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan from 1950-1958. He made a great contribution to the development of science in our country. In orderto organize celebrations of the 100th anniversaries of the first staging of the opera "Leyli and Majnun", of the national artist Sattar Bahlulzadeh, of the writer Mir Jalil Pashayev and academician Musa Aliyev in 2008-2009 in Azerbaijan at state level, I here - by decree: The Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the Republic of Azerbaijan, jointly with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, as well as with corresponding proposals from the Union of Composers of Azerbaijan, the Union of Artists of Azerbaijan and the Union of Writers of Azerbaijan, are to prepare and implement an action plan for the organization of the 100th anniversaries of the first staging of the opera "Leyli and Majnun", of the national artist Sattar Bahlulzadeh, of the writer Mir Jalal Pashayev and the academician Musa Aliyev within the country, abroad and at UNESCO level". Age of Fame The 100th anniversary of the opera "Leyli and Majnun" was celebrated in January 2008. "I started working on the opera in 1907. However I had the first idea at an earlier stage, approximately in 1897-1898, when, as a boy, I saw the scene "Mejnun on Leyli's Grave" in an amateur play in my hometown of Shusha. That image touched me so deeply that I decided to write something similar to opera as I returned to Baku" (Uzeyir Hajibeyov). The premiere of the opera "Leyli and Majnun" was held on 25 (12) January 1908 in Baku in the Haji Zeynalabdin Tagiyev theatre (in the building of the present State Theatre of Musical Comedy). The talented actor and director Hussein Arablinsky staged the opera. The first conductor was the writerdramatist Abdulrahimbey Haqverdiyev. At following performances the writer of the opera himself and the composer Muslim Magomayev, the close friend and associate of Uzeyir Hajibeyov, stood on the 77


conductor's podium. The famous publicist, artist, and public figure Alibey Husseinzadeh contributed to the artistic decor of the play. The orchestra accompanying the first play was comprised of only a few musicians who were Uzeyir Hajibeyov's friends from the Gory Seminary. The mugham parts were accompanied by the famous tar players Gurban Pirimov and Shirin Akhundov." (Graduate of Baku Musical Academy, candidate of Art History, Jamila Hasanova). And now we, the new generation, are privileged to mark the centenary of the first Azerbaijani opera "Leyli and Majnun", based upon motifs from the poem by the genius Mohammed Fuzuli. The opera "Leyli and Majnun" was not only the first opera in Azerbaijan. That day saw the initiation of opera in the ancient East and the name of the 22-year-old composer, Uzeyir Hajibeyov, entered the annals of opera for the first time in the East. "Uzeyir Hajibeyov is a great composer, a classic of the musical culture of Azerbaijan. His works played a fundamental role in the history of national music. The establishment and development of professional music in Azerbaijan, the emergence and evolution of many genres and the formation of numerous professional ensembles are connected with the name Uzeyir Hajibeyov. Uzeyir Hajibeyov was the first person, having begun composing and his social activity under difficult personal circumstances, to establish the first national musical theatre in the whole Near East." (J. Hasanova) Graduate of the Baku Musical Academy and candidate of Art History, Jamila Hasanova, showed in her work that the outstanding musical and theatrical figure Husseingulu Sarabsky was the first to play the role of Majnun. "He so mastered the role that people started calling him "Majnun". In latertimes many famous khanende of different generations played the role. Among them were Aliovsat Sadikhov, Husseinaga Hajibababeyov, Abulfat Aliyev, Bakir Ashumov, Gulu Askarov, Arif Babayev, Janali Akbarov, Alim Gasimov, Mansum Ibrahimov and many others, who all left a trace in the history of the develop-ment of operatic theatre, thanks to their inimitable styles of performance and their luminous interpretations of the role. But it was impossible to find an actress for Leyli's role at the time, as Muslim women were forbidden to play on stage at the beginning of the 20th century. That is why all the female roles in theatre were played by men. During the first play young A. Farajov, who had a nice voice and knew mughams, played Leyli. Following him, the role was played by Ahmad Agdamsky, the famous actor of principal female women roles in almost all mugham operas and musical comedies of that time. Only after some years (in the 1920s-30s) did women-khanendes appear on stage, creating beautiful roles in the mugham operas of Azerbaijani composers. Among the famous actresses who played Leyli we can name Surayya Gajar, Hagigat Rzayeva, Gulhar Hasanova, Rubaba Muradova, Sara Gadimova, Zeynab Khanlarova, Nezaket Mammadova, Sakina Ismailova, Gandab Guliyeva, Melekkhanim Eyyubova, Nezaket Teymurova and others" - says Hasanova. We should also note that the legend of the immortal love of Leyli and Majnun was very popular in the East. The Azerbaijani poet of the 12th century, Nizami, was the first to address this theme and wrote the poem of the same name. After him about fifty poets addressed the same theme in their oeuvres. We can name the Indian Amir Hosrov Dahlavi in the 12th century, the Iranian Imadi in the 15th century, the Uzbek Alishar Navai in the 15th century, the Tajik Jami, the Turkish Chakeri and many others. However, the composer took the poem by Fuzuli as the basis for his opera. Researchers say that the choice was not unintentional. Uzeyir Hajibeyov took Fuzuli's poem as the basis of the opera because it was written in Azerbaijani and had a great influence on the development of eastern poetry. This is what the composer wrote about the form: "I wanted to use classical samples of the national art, mugham, as musical material. My only task was to select colourful music, rich in form and content, using Fuzuli's words and work out the dramatic outline of the action..." Thus Uzeyir Hajibayov defines the style of "Leyli and Majnun" as a mugham-improvised opera. Chanson-dance samples of the national art were also used in the opera, besides mugham. There were also episodes which were fully created by the composer. The centenary was celebrated in several cultural houses - the House Museum of Uzeyir Hajibeyov, the Azerbaijani State Academic Theatre of Opera and Ballet, the Jaffar Jabbarly Azerbaijani State Theatrical Museum and the State Museum of Musical Culture of Azerbaijan. A scientific conference dedicated to the hundredth anniversary of the "Leyli and Majnun" opera was held in the House-Museum of Uzeyir Hajibeyov within the framework of the centenary. Further, an exhibition including various posters, photo-graphs, scores and other memorabilia was also held. A very bright jubilee premiere of the opera was prepared in the Azerbaijani State Academic Theatre of Opera and Ballet on the occasion of this remarkable event. New, unique designs were created for the "Leyli and 78


Majnun" opera and new costumes were designed for the artists playing in the opera because of the special nature of the event. An exhibition dedicated to the history of opera was held in the foyer of the theatre on the day of the performance of the 100-year-old opera. A new, jubilee edition of posters and invitations was also published on the occasion of the centenary. Various famous artistic figures of Azerbaijan, whom life had brought together via the "Leyli and Majnun" opera, participated in the jubilee premiere of the opera. Culture.-2009.-№2.-S.208-213.

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Our National Salvation day In recent history at the helm of Azerbaijan stood a powerful politician. He was one who easily unraveled all of the tricks and deceitful plans of enemies, understood political loops that confused others, one who was ahead of his time for decades and centuries for his political wisdom and easily saw what happened behind thick political walls. This politician was Heydar Aliyev. Only his personality could resist the trickery and modern weapons of our historical enemies that have repeatedly drowned our people in blood. Time passage between the First and the Second periods of Heydar Aliyev's ruling, the period of the anarchy were the years of regression for our country. The years between 1990 and 1993 were those of survival. Deceitful leaders of our country and followed them unskilful regime of 'the National Front of Azerbaijan' faced our country with downfall; Azerbaijan was about to disappear from the map of the South Caucasus. On 21st of January 1990 (the next day after the tragedy of January 20th) under the risk of his life Heydar Aliyev came to the permanent membership of Azerbaijan in Moscow to express his regret and demanded punishment for mass annihilators and thus he started the struggle for independence of Azerbaijan people. During his residence in Nakhchivan Heydar Aliyev revived national state system traditions, deleted the terms 'soviet' and 'socialist' from the name of the autonomous republic, adopted the three coloured flag of the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan as the state attribute, gave political evaluation to the abolition in January 19-20th. Besides the abovementioned people of Nakhchivan rejected to participate at the referendum on retaining of the USSR, local organs of the Communist Party in Nakhchivan had been liquidated; December 31st declared the day of Solidarity of all Azerbaijanis in the world and separated and blocked Nakhchivan released from the enemies. Independence is the most valuable wealth for a citizen and for the whole people. Many years we struggled for our independence and had thousands of martyrs. The achieved independence is much difficult to preserve. No independence is achieved without strong and powerful state. People without a state are doomed to destruction. For us the state of Azerbaijan is a matter of life and death. The great merit of the president before our people and history was that he preserved the state system of Azerbaijan in the period of sharp geopolitical contradictions for owning of our lands and saved Azerbaijan from destruction. Preservation of the state means preservation of independence; means Salvation! The great politician supported his people in its worst days and came back to his country in July 29th 1990. In Baku he faced with humiliation; he was prohibited to remain in here. Two days after his arrival in Baku he had to leave for native Nakhchivan in July 22nd 1990. Heydar Aliyev was in the power to change this terrible picture. Thanks to the will of Azerbaijan people, a great politician of the world was brought back to the head and crated and obstacle on the way of the enemies. Return of Heydar Aliyev in June 1993 was the conclusive point for Azerbaijan. The wise political leader prevented civil war and destroyed the plan of internal and foreign enemies concerning liquidation of Azerbaijan. He undertook the government of the state. The danger and tragedy passed by our Motherland and the people. The struggle for independence took the direction of the victory. The encroachments of October 1994 and March 1995 did not confuse the state of Azerbaijan and obstinacy of the president Heydar Aliyev. He proved himself as a president devoted to his oath and ready to die for the independence of his people and Motherland. Our people regained its self-reliance and high spirit, witnessed stability and peace. As the great statesman Heydar Aliyev's second historical achievement was the stability. Genius politician, relying to his power and experience proved devotion to his words: "The state independence of Azerbaijan will be eternal, unbreakable and firm…" He occupied the right position in the problem of war. Taking into consideration the power, the plans of the enemies and their international supporters, analysing dangerous situation into which Azerbaijan has been involved, Heydar Aliyev evaluated the situation. He achieved seize-fire and thus save our gene pool, preventing Azerbaijan from waste of young and healthy forces. Heydar Aliyev recommenced the ancient and eternal name of 'Azerbaijan' over our land, people and language and IslamTurkic unity, disappeared the risk of ethnical clash. 80


Azerbaijan witnesses gradually rising respect and authority in the world. Azerbaijan is recognized as democratic, legal and secular state by the whole world. Our Constitution-the basic law, is the work of Heydar Aliyev's mind and one of the most democratic and perfect Constitutions of the world. Carried out internal reforms and stability in our country positively affect the extension of the international relations. The Republic of Azerbaijan bases its foreign policy on the principles of equality and mutual interests. Thus it is an open country to all the countries of the world. The best achievement of the president Heydar Aliyev in foreign policy was that he re-established traditional friendship relations with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan and the completely Turkic world. The Republic of Azerbaijan is an equal member of Turkic states family and Heydar Aliyev awarded the name of the wise leader, Ataturk of modern world. Independent Azerbaijan is gradually gaining the authority in Moslem world. Azerbaijan republic is a member of the international unities and organizations. We may be proud of successful reports at worthy international assembly of CE made by well-deserved successor of Heydar Aliyev's policy Ilham Aliyev and with the superiority over Armenian militarists of deputy group led by him. The international authority of Azerbaijan Republic is also proved by the facts that Ilham Aliyev was elected the Bureau Member and the vice-president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Against 'armenian card' historically used by our traditional enemies to defeat Azerbaijan the president Heydar Aliyev applied the oil strategy, which is stronger than 'armenian card' in the solution of Caucasus problem. Today prescient politicians understand the power of the oil strategy against 'armenian card' and Armenian lobby. Near future will prove us the deep essence of this policy worked out by Heydar Aliyev. Rabitə dünyası.-2008.-№ 18.-S.23.

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Academic quality assurance in Azerbaijan's higher education: implementation challenges Jala Garibova Azerbaijan University of Languages Baku Introduction The concept of academic quality has gained a higher degree of public significance in higher education over the past few decades. This is due to several factors, first of all, to the undeniable reality of constant pursue by the developing nations to bring their social life standards close to those of the wellestablished democracies. Education often opens the list of the spheres where change and reform is considered most vital. It is also among the most difficult areas to change given the pre-existing models which have been deeply entrenched in the social system and the public mind in these countries. It is challenging also because education is ever changing and ever evolving. The concept of academic quality, which has become a top agenda in quite a number of developing countries, in particular, in the post-Soviet nations, started its migration from Europe, where the context in which higher education operates has changed due to a number of factors. Among them is growing globalization and anti-globalization tendencies, increasing market elements in the European approach to education, growing interference of the European Union in higher education as well as the pursue to maintain the quality of European higher education in a constant competition with American education system. Chasing quality is also in place in the United States, where the concept of quality education is currently caught up between two major tone-setting tendencies: freedom and accountability. While the concept of academic quality assurance has become a popular educational agenda issue in the world, and is often placed in the context of the so-called "Bologna Process", some caution is probably necessary to take so that the concept is not devalued to become a definition for a mechanical tool for and arbitrary measuring of random processes or superficial tendencies. Nor should it be allowed that quality in education becomes tantamount to a technical, business-like deprived of any kind of emotional coloring. Some recent literature discusses academic quality assurance as a phenomenon that ends an era associated with enthusiasm and that begins an era more characterized by realism in the field. But progress in education always takes a certain degree of enthusiasm. Many educational problems especially in the developing world cannot be solved if such factors as enthusiasm, dedication, risk, sacrifice etc. are not in place. So maybe procedures should be developed in the framework of quality assurance to measure such non-quantifiable factors. The sphere of education is one of the most discussed topics in the post-Soviet Azerbaijan society, whether in the context of promoting the government's state-building and democratization endeavors, of describing challenges the country is confronting in the transition period, or as part of the criticism of the government for insufficient efforts to solve the burning problems in the most vital areas of the society. In fact today education in Azerbaijan is a true challenge, an unsuccessful handling of which will drastically impact the future of Azerbaijanis as a nation. And truly, education, especially the higher education is the most vivid sign, and a brightest example of how difficult, and how painful the transition period has been for Azerbaijan. The difficulty of the transition period, aggravated with specific political and social issues, has put a strongest imprint on education. If we want to look at the indicators, they can range from the old Soviet teaching mentality to insufficient computers in classrooms, or from a ridiculous for the 21st century degree of centralization of the education system to free-vole initiatives of private Universities running after recruiting as many students as possible to the detriment of essential principles of quality education. Reasons? Again, there are myriads of them, some of which are not even peculiar of only developing societies at all. The major global problems in the educational transition are surely shared by developing countries, however, education in these countries would incredibly benefit if more serious and more genuine efforts were made to solve at least some of the specific, "closer-to-the-earth" problems at their very root. For the recent 2 or 3 years the first steps have been taken to start reforming higher education in Azerbaijan. Many Universities have successfully been placing specialists and experts from West, particularly, from USA. American embassies and the US State Department in developing countries have been partnering with local Universities to design the reformation process in higher education, to ensure a smooth transfer to the credit system, and to facilitate the democratization processes at Universities. 82


But again, what presents a serious challenge is sustainability of these measures. Time factor of course should be taken into consideration because transition is a gradual process, which takes a lot of preparation, head-change, and resource creation. Based on the overall proved theory standing behind internationally developed principles and guidelines for educational quality assurance, as well as on my immediate empiric observations, I would like to present major factors (both extra-educational and educational) that stand as current challenges to quality assurance and quality control in higher education of Azerbaijan. Environmental Scanning (Legal and economic factors) Quality measures, as created in individual cases or as a good-will initiative of the Ministry of Education or Universities, is still vulnerable and subject to disruption or degradation. First and foremost, it is connected with the socioeconomic status of the teaching personnel. By socio-economic status I mean, first of all, proper, adequate compensation to the teaching force. The problem of inadequate compensation generates other larger problems such as multiple jobs and resulting poor quality, lack of transparency, degradation of the image of the teacher etc. Poor quality results, in the long run, in the demoralization of the society. We should ensure that students perceive education in Azerbaijan as real acquisition of knowledge and skills rather than as a simple period of transition to Turkey, Europe or USA. This is of course also a problem of many other countries who, for example, have recently joined the European Union; students from these smaller countries have a strong tendency to transfer to larger European countries and in many cases not to come back. This has a negative affect, both quantitative and qualitative, on the student contingent of these Universities. But in many cases, students leaving Azerbaijan for other countries are not motivated by mere opportunities to change the environment or to gain a broad world experience. They look forward to an atmosphere where they will be treated as normal students with privileges that the society grants to the studentship and to gain genuine knowledge. Again, and again, this will be difficult unless an adequate support is in place, which will allow University administrators to renew their human resources pool. Otherwise, university administrations and the Ministry of Education will be constantly doomed to continuous failure in their fight with irregularities and in their struggle to enhance quality. Economic difficulties are also reflected in the tendency to perform multiple jobs at various Universities. So even if Universities take a severe step to create a new sound resource pool, they do not succeed, because very few of those who show integrity and professionalism can fully dedicate themselves to one workplace. Men are especially difficult to catch for permanent positions. Sustainability of the educational quality also depends on legal accountability and legal support. A law on education needs to be in place in order to support the education reforms legally. The legal framework is also necessary to clarify the status of the post-graduate and doctoral education. Autonomy of Universities Quality assurance expects an institution to develop a balanced governing structure designed to promote institutional autonomy and flexibility of operation. Lack of autonomy affects Universities in many ways: creating or raising their own funds, financially encouraging good performance, concluding contracts or agreements for rendering or receiving services, recruiting personnel outside the established by the Ministry of Finance, staff schedule. Most seriously, this manifests itself in the restriction of Universities to offer flexible programs and to compete in the market by offering diversified curricula. Some 20 to 30% flexibility allowed in curriculum design will make programs less competitive. Curricula should be developed depending on the philosophy, mission and strategy of that higher education institution. This makes it difficult to consider comments from the professors and students and possible constant review of the programs. Without this a quality output is difficult to enforce since this depends on constant evaluation and improvement. Interestingly, the process has taken a reverse direction in many Universities of USA. The concept of accountability has produced a tendency to bring certain curriculum components into commonality in particular in relationship with general education requirements. This, according to the opinions of many, eases the mobility of students within the US and creates a higher degree of accountability on the side of the Universities in their strategic program building. Efforts should be made to prepare the Universities for carrying out the admission process up to the world standards. Currently, admission and placement of students to Universities is carried out by a central government agency, which, in an ideal case, would act, as its worldwide counterparts, in the capacity of a 83


test service institution. This is explained as a transitory measure to enhance transparency of the student admission processes at Universities. However, Universities should start developing a sound approach to the admission process where they would be competing for best students, who are a major driving force on the way to ensuring academic quality. Internal Communication Communication is a major problem and is a most urgent issue to solve. Autocratic communication and a directive approach still exist at the level of Universities. I put it in the context of education today, but unfortunately it is an overall societal problem. In Azerbaijan, unfortunately, the problem still remains at many levels and in many spheres. Administrators have not quite learned how to communicate with their personnel in order not to debase their personality. Of course, there are exceptions. But there should be a kind of "communication framework" developed and entrenched as part of academic culture. I would just like to give some hints on how this affects the teaching process. Wrong communication discourages and hinders good, dedicated performance and a diversified approach to teaching, thus damaging the image of a teacher or professor in the whole. At many Universities, old Soviet type of disciplinary measures are applied to check (not to review) professors' activities, such as interrupting the teaching process to check whether the professor has stepped into the classroom with his or plan ready, whether he or she has marked absences at the beginning of the class, or whether they really teach, and not just waste time, while implementing interactive technology. Scolding teachers in front of the students, sometimes without any good reason, is not an exception. This takes place particularly at private Universities, at some of which the founder's behaviour is no different from that of an old feudal in relationship to his subjects. This brings to a constant flow of resources from these Universities, lack of commitment on the side of the teachers, who often quit on the process and walk out in the middle of a semester. Imagine for a minute sustained quality under the pressure to replace this professor. At its depth, the reasons for wrong communication are bound with the lack of a context of trust. And therefore this happens more at the level of private schools, whose founders need this trust more to protect their personal property. Unfortunately, except for a few cases, private University founders are mostly motivated by protecting their business rather than promoting genuine education in the country. Strategic Communication (Public Awareness) More should be done by the Universities to reach public in order to convey the changes at the Universities brought about by the Bologna process and/or quality assurance initiatives. General public awareness of how Universities function or should function is still at the level of the pro-existing Soviet perceptions. The parent factor is one of the major elements at Universities. Parents often manifest a high degree of involvement in the student-University relationships - but often when problems arise in the course of the study of their kids. And any new problem that arises beyond the typical, in relation with the student's academic success, is perceived as a fault and failure by the University. For example, the implementation of the credit system requires a novel approach to the solution of the failure problem, such as retaking the course instead of the retaking of the test (which was the usual case before), which may put the student 1 semester and sometimes 1 year behind. Retaking a course should also involve additional charge on the side of the students. But many Universities cannot go ahead and implement it. It is a great risk to apply this rule to the students who do not pay for their education (since free payment is not something that is based on a scholarship which is extended according to the merit of the student for a particular time during his studies, but instead, which is decided as an official status that the student has gained based on his admission score, charging a non-paying student for an additional course would be perceived as the violation of his or her rights). On the other hand, it would not be fare and honest to apply this only to the fee-paying students as this by itself would present discrimination. Free schedule and elective courses presuppose free grouping against what existed as fixed student groups. Sometimes concerns as minor as "why my kid is often distracted from his/her group, why cannot he/she stay in one group" could be brought as complaints. The transfer to the credit system is still confusing to many, and it is not unusual to see parents who perceive it as an opportunity to get a bank credit to cover the tuition fee. However, this is not only parents. There is not sufficient awareness in the society, in media, among other professionals and to tell the truth, among many of the teaching staff unless they are administratively involved. Building public awareness is gaining public support which is very important for the advancement of the Universities. It would ease the process of developing fund-raising strategies by involving alumni and, 84


when possible, donors. It would also change the direction of University-parent relationships and would encourage the parents for a different kind of participation. Strategic communication within the Universities is extremely necessary since it would create a corporate spirit and a higher degree of involvement. Communicating is educating, which would have an incredible impact on the overall quality factor. Strategic Planning at Universities Strategic planning in higher education would be able to become a driving force for improving academic quality. Strategic planning is something that would allow administrators to plan their actions based on not only internal but also external (as shown above) factors. A well planned strategy means a well designed educational management, a broad view on University advancement, a dynamic approach to the solution of the problems, a higher degree of collaborative participation, elevated University-student relations, a vision on employability of graduates, forethought on the competitiveness of the programs, and a social value that the University delivers through its programs and research. A good strategy planning cannot miss any of these points. Strategic planning is a new concept. Although it has already taken its way from the United States and has migrated to other countries, it still may be new for many European Universities. In fact, significant historical differences in the evolution of higher education institutions between Europe and USA present a challenge to European Universities in their strategic planning and management endeavors. The analysis of the plausibility of Strategic Planning in Europe provided by Taylor, Amaral and Machado in "Planning for Higher Education" (Vol.35, #2, 2007), provides information on the restrictions for European countries to implement effective strategic planning. The example of 10 European countries manifests that the process is fully underway only in a few cases. The main reasons are shown to emerge from the understanding of the market concept in these countries. "In Western Europe", as is discussed, where the state is the main resources provider, the "market" appears more obviously a rhetorical construction than an ideological concept. Even in countries like the UK where Thatcher revolution has introduced all the ingredients of market rhetoric, no real market for higher education has been allowed to emerge." Presently, strategic planning within higher education focuses mainly on the United States. It has gained a strong attention recently as a solid mechanism ensuring sustainable quality. Strategic planning models have repeatedly been shown to work well and to be generally valid, although some institutions worldwide have failed in their attempts to effectively implement it. It would be an effective way to start implementing quality assurance with in many post-Soviet countries, including Azerbaijan. Benefits can already be predicted. Strategic planning, once undertaken, would legitimate efforts towards enhancing quality. Since it is strategic, it would focus on internal and external environment analysis, and would have to address the University's mission and vision. Strategic planning in fact would enable the initiators of reform to look at the problems at their very root, and to develop tactics to eradicate them. It would make quality assurance and control procedures sustainable rather than ad hoc. What kind of risks does this involve in Azerbaijan? Among the most serious would be: lack of good leadership and concerted action, failure to communicate, insufficient participation and shared governance, lack of resources, resistance to change, and inadequate understanding of the process itself. Evaluation procedures Quality assurance is based upon a principled judgment of the performance quality accomplished as a constant review process, and a rigorous application of requirements. Review process should be a wellorganized one, which would involve a self-analysis, internal reviews and informed external peer reviews. The existing review and promotion system does not enable University administrations to reveal good potential and basis for encouragement since it is mainly based on quantitative parameters such as the length of service, the number of published articles etc. The publication sources are taken into consideration only by the Supreme Assessment Committee in the case of awarding academic degrees. Few Universities consider more than just the number of articles for promoting purposes. Evaluation is also factual rather than analytical. While the fact of availability of an academic degree is taken into consideration for promotion, it is eventually confirmed or awarded not by Universities, but by the Supreme Assessment Committee. So the Universities are not positioned to take an analytical approach to academic degrees but are simply to accept the fact. Certain steps have been taken by some institutions to establish a higher degree of rigor for increasing quality of education. But they still have a random nature and are mostly done on an ad hoc basis. 85


Evaluation must be meaningful and useful for the faculty member and for those who conduct it. In order to be meaningful, the evaluation must have outcomes; in order to be useful, it must provide the faculty member with feedback that is sufficiently clear to allow for improvement when necessary. This means that no evaluation can be efficient unless it is systematic. Evaluation must be conducted in the context of an agreed upon set of activities and expectations. But evaluation should not be carried out a faculty member's merits outside his/her environment. It should be designed to reveal the degree to which a faculty member or an administrator makes contribution to the functioning of his/her department/unit and of the University as a whole. It should also be a fare process, which also looks at to what extent a faculty member's workload allows him/her to do it. One of the most important goals of evaluation should be aimed at making the teaching personnel happy at their work place and building a "trust atmosphere". Without these two the learning outcomes will not improve. For example, certain procedures should be in place to review the specific "beyond-the control" cases, which interrupt the quality delivery at higher educational institutions beyond the control of the performer, such as illness, childbirth, illness of immediate family members, loss of relatives or other events, which would disrupt a flow of action in normalcy. If there were certain rules established to protect professors from a rating drop in the cases when they cannot perform due to such serious problems, there would be a system, which would enable to apply certain standards to resolving such cases. Definitely, this does not mean that the reasons are not taken into consideration when failure occurs due to similar circumstances. However, the existence of established procedures would certainly produce a systematic rather than an individual approach to the problem, and would create an assurance among the teaching personnel of their protection from "force-major" events. Such assurance also controls the quality of the teaching process in a better way, since it protects from a rushed "cover-up" for a non-performance, or poor performance, period. For example, the evaluation process at many US Universities takes an account of a procedure according to which a faculty member may request to "stop the tenure clock" (for up to one year) when circumstances exist that interrupt the faculty member's normal progress toward building a case for tenure. Reasons to "stop the clock" will typically be of a personal or family nature; examples may include childbirth or adoption, care of dependents, medical conditions, or physical disasters or disruptions. An integral part should be students' involvement in the evaluation process. Such an initiative is being taken by Universities, but again, more research is needed to make the process more efficient, the students' opinions more reliable, and the students' participation in the overall quality process more active. Accreditation challenges Academic quality assurance is bound with eventual accreditation of Universities by recognized accrediting bodies. The Ministry of Education has created an accrediting body, which is obligatory for all Universities, but this does not yet mean that ensuring and controlling quality will be real in Azerbaijan in the near future. Ideally, licensing of Universities by the Ministry of Education would be able to replace accreditation through which Universities worldwide go for enhancing their reputation. Theoretically, licensing of Universities in Azerbaijan, for example, would seem even more rigorous than accreditation of Universities by international accrediting organizations because the former is obligatory while the latter is not. But here is where mystery lies. What is obligatory cannot create sound market competition, while what is voluntary can produce a real contest for excellence, which is the first and foremost condition for quality. Real, world standard and principled accreditation would be the most obvious indication of quality. In this transition period, quality in education cannot be reliably measured by local accrediting procedures. First, there process is bound with lack of experience in the field. The Ministry of Education is recognizing the fact, and is making true efforts to involve international expertise, both for the purpose of training local experts and for the purpose of creating and implementing the procedures. First of all, it is necessary to define academic standards and quality, which should be recognized internationally. The entire process should have started with this step. Lack of experience in the filed is also manifested by the inefficiency of the measures for assessing quality. For example, critical, analytical selfassessment, which would be far from simple narration, is not part of the process yet. It would not be sufficient to simply report on "who is doing what"; selfassessment would be bore reliable if it answered the question of "why we are doing so" and "how do we know that we are doing right".

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The technique for the implementation also creates difficulties. The Universities, for example, are required to complete the process during 6 months, which is naturally insufficient given the complexity of the process and lack of experience on the side of the Universities. A reason for sustained poor outcome by some Universities is motivation behind accreditation initiatives. Two motives are dangerous: the assumption that it is a formal process, and the University should just go through it in order to comply with its reporting obligation; and an attempt to create a public image and thus to recruit more students and more donors. That local accreditation could not be relied upon is also due to the missing context of trust in higher education. However, although this is a harsh reality, and not only in Azerbaijan, no procedures have been created to measure the degree of formality by Universities while complying with the required procedures. With this in mind, a certain place should be allotted to accountability within accreditation. Accountability should provide an assessment of an institution's effectiveness in the fulfillment of its mission, its compliance with the requirements of its accrediting association, and its continuing efforts to enhance the quality of student learning and its programs and services. There are certain elements in the context of implementation of the credit system, which hinders full control of the quality. Although the credit system is on the surfaces level is expressed quantitatively (as the number of hours, number of credits etc.), there is quality behind any numbers. While the implementation of the credit system is underway, it is performed mainly at the quantitative level, sometimes simply by assigning credit numbers to subjects. A deeper thought should be given to how these numbers are come up with, and to what their carrying value is. One indicator of this is the grading scale, which makes much less rigorous requirements for excellence: in a 100-score scale, "A" stands between 86 and 100. This produces over 70% "honour" students - an indicator, directly contradicting accreditation expectations. Last, but not the least, a lion's share from the State budget should be allocated to establish strong infrastructure and create quality human resources, especially under the circumstances which do not allow State Universities to raise their own funds. Accreditation is ridiculous to mention when such infrastructure and resources, which would support quality education, are not in place. Accreditation is not merely logical without the Universities' real capabilities to fund sound, marketable research, to build its library, a computer pool, or to sustain a well-trained personnel. References: 1. Charles L. Glenn "Sharing responsibility for education: Families, government, and educators", European Journal for Education Law and Policy, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, 2004. 2. Deli Danielle "Civil Liability within the education system: The Belgian framework" European Journal for Education Law and Policy, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, 2004. 3. De Geyter L. "Trends and New Thinking in Europe on Special Needs Education" A New Framework of Special Education in the Russian Federation, J.De Groof, G.Lauwers and Garant Publishers. 4. De Groof Jan and Lauwers Gracienne "Increasing Acces to Education Throughout European Society" Cultural and Educational Rights in the Enlarged Europe. Wolf Legal Publishers , The Netherlands, 2005. 5. Egron- Polak Eva "The public responsibility for higher education and research - Conclusions and suggestions" The public responsibility for higher education and research, Council of Europe Publishing, April, 2005. 6. Hoornaert Johan and Oosterlinck Andre "Universities from the Perspective of Internationalization" International Journal for Educational Law and Policy, Volume 1, Issue 1-2, Wolf Legal Publishers, The Netherlands, 2005 7. Isaxanli H. A. "On education System in Transition Economy: A view from Azerbaijan, Khazar University Press, Baku, 2006. 8. Marsters Tim and Bliss Kelly "Developing a Comprehensive Housing Strategy: A Case Study" The Journal of the Society for College and University Planning, volume 35, Number 2, January- March 2007, United States, 2006 . 9. Мельвиль А.Ю. «Мягкий Путь: Вхождения Российских Вузов в Болонский Процесс» Олма-Пресс, Москва, 2005. 87


Azərbaycan məktəbi.-2008.-№4.-S.19-29.

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South caucasus: new paradigms for peace and development in the 21 st century Tabib Huseynov* İntroduction The South Caucasus has entered the 21st century with a heavy heritage of ethnic and territorial conflicts. The vicious cycle of conflict seriously impedes the development of the region and also, having a dangerous spillover potential, poses a threat to the international peace and security. This article argues federalism and regional integration in the South Caucasus coupled with wider European integration provides the best possible solution for the region's intractable conflicts and for sustainable peace and development. In order to support this thesis, the article makes an overview of the general trends in governance, focusing on the potential of the federalism and integrative solutions in mitigating and transforming the conflicts, followed by a discussion of their possible application in the South Caucasus region. 1. Current trends in governance and their impact on the European core and periphery The rise in the number of ethnic and territorial conflicts from the early 1990s, combined with growing regional and global interdependences (generally referred to as globalization), have posed serious challenges to the centralized governance and traditional system of international relations, centered around the notion of sovereign nation-States. Both downward and upward pressures on the current State-centered international system reflected in simultaneous global processes of integration and fragmentation lead to erosion of State sovereignty, withering of national boundaries and eventually, the creation of new forms of governance. By "fragmentation" I mean not only secession, but also the increasing trends towards decentralization, devolution, federalization in the State governance. By "integration" I mean parallel trends, particularly among the developed States, most evidently exemplified in the case of the EU members, to transfer part of their sovereign rights to the supranational structures. The global processes of fragmentation and integration also largely explain the growing internationalization (or rather, multilateralization) of ethnic and territorial conflicts, i.e. the more and more active involvement of the international community in these conflicts either through coercive (e.g. humanitarian interventions) or non-coercive means (e.g. through various forms of mediation and inducements). The European core: integration plus fragmentation Today the European Union is at the center of these global transformations. If we look at the trends, within the EU the governance is gradually capitalized at the hands of the supranational structures on the one hand, and local communities on the other. Within the EU, supranational-ism and federalism (or in EU terminology, subsidiarity, i.e. allowing local communities to make decisions for themselves) go hand in hand: more powers for Brussels is complemented with more powers for local communities, and all this takes place at the expense of nation-States, which increasingly relinquish their sovereignty. With such trends in place, the traditional perceptions on State sovereignty, ethnic self-determination, national and ethnic territories, majority-minority relationships, i.e. all those factors which are at the core of the ethnic and territorial conflicts, lose their previous meanings and get transformed, allowing for more constructive, non-violent and creative ways of solving these conflicts. Thus, in the developed European core the global processes of fragmentation and integration have emerged and continue to evolve as parallel processes, (mostly) in non-violent ways, with the European Union leading this transformation process. The European periphery: fragmentation minus integration Unfortunately, in the underdeveloped European peripheries, most notably the Balkans and the Caucasus, fragmentation has occurred at the detriment of integration and has been carried out in violent forms, resulting in enormous human suffering and economic losses. The regional conflicts largely 89


evolved around the old-fashioned contests over sovereignty and ethnic ownership over a territory, which significantly undermined the prospects for regional cooperation and integration. In the Balkans, the EU, in cooperation with NATO and the US, reacted to violent conflicts by opting for active intervention, and later by setting up a Stability Pact for the Balkans, which put a strong emphasis on co-operation among the neighboring countries, and, as a final reward, by offering a prospect of EU membership. By its involvement and policies the EU has largely succeeded in breaking the vicious circle of conflict in the region (with notable exception of Kosovo, where situation remains uncertain) and complementing fragmentation with parallel integration mechanisms in order to mitigate the negative effects of fragmentation. While the Balkans, enjoying more proximity to the European core, received major attention from the EU throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the South Caucasus has largely been viewed as an insignificant periphery. It is true that the EU's attention and involvement in the South Caucasus has significantly increased with the recent round of enlargement, which made South Caucasus a border area for the EU, and facilitated the region's inclusion in the ENP in 2004. However, for many in the European core, South Caucasus still remains a distant periphery, and South Caucasus conflicts still largely remain in the shadow of other conflicts: in the Balkans, in the Middle East, in Iraq. 2. South Caucasus as one of the major sources of conflict in Europe The EU's failure to assume a more assertive role in the South Caucasus may have significant negative effects for the future European security. Indeed, the South Caucasus conflicts represent not less, but arguably, more threat to the common European security than the Balkan conflicts nowadays. The following section briefly discusses the conflict potential of the South Caucasus region in order to show the urgency for more proactive and assertive European involvement in the region. Antagonizing Russia and the West The regional conflicts in the South Caucasus significantly complicate and upset the relations between and among the external powers, particularly the Russia and the West, which contest nfluences in the South Caucasus. These conflicts, and particularly the most intractable regional conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorny Karabakh, if resumed, may have huge pillover effects, going far beyond the borders of the region. The South Caucasus today is a highly fragmented region. It has three secessionist entities and two out of three regional States, Armenia and Azerbaijan, are at a state of undeclared war with each other. Unable to independently provide for their own security, both conflicting nations seek to forge alliances with the external powers and play out their interests in the region against each other, contributing to the tensions among these external powers. Thus, Armenia is part of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is essentially a military-security structure to counter NATO. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is closely allied with Turkey. Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance is based not only on close ethnic kinship, but also on actual economic, political and strategic interests of the two countries, which, along with Georgia, play pivotal role in the East-West energy and transport corridors, viewed by Europe as the vital part of its present energy security strategy. In such a regional setting, as a nightmare scenario, the resumption of hostilities in Nagorny Karabakh may provoke a conflict between Russia siding with Armenia, and NATO member Turkey siding with Azerbaijan. If this scenario is instigated, the world would be one step away from V'WIII between Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and NATO. Causing friction within the Western bloc In addition to antagonizing the relationships between Russia and the West, the existing conflicts in the South Caucasus also have a potential of destabilizing the internal unity of the Western allies, particularly causing friction between Turkey on one hand and the EU and Turkey's N^TO allies on the other. This division may have serious negative effects on Western interests not only in the South Caucasus but also far beyond. 90


Turkey's policies coincide with its NATO and EU allies in the region on the major issues, such as security for the East-West energy and transport corridors, greater role for the West in the South Caucasus and the region's integration with the European and Euro-Atlantic space. The only significant difference between Turkey and its Western allies' policies in the region concerns Armenia. Turkey, reacting to the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory, closed the borders and ceased political ties with Armenia during the height of the Karabakh conflict in 1993. Armenia, on the other hand, along with its small but vocal Diaspora all over the world, has consistently conducted an international campaign against Turkey accusing it of genocide against Armenians during the last years of the Ottoman rule. Both policies have poisoned and served to entrench the hostility in the ArmenianTurkish relations. Furthermore, the Armenian genocide campaigns, and Diaspora's limited success in persuading some US and European national and local legislatures to recognize "Armenian genocide" have served to further antagonize Turkey and spoil its relations with EU and NATO allies. The unresolved nature of Armenian-Turkish relationships brings volatility not only to the South Caucasus, but to the overall Western policies in the South Caucasus and the Middle East, two strategic regions, in which the West relies on its ally Turkey. The analysis above demonstrates that the South Caucasus has a destabilizing potential going far beyond its borders and should be treated with more attention and urgency by the external powers, and particularly the EU, as the major center of gravity for the South Caucasus. 3. Federalism in the South Caucasus: How it Can Promote Peace in the Region? As has been mentioned, the South Caucasus today is a highly fragmented region. The peace process is stalled as the conflicting sides exchange claims over sovereignty and ethnic ownership of a territory. There is a need for re-thinking the traditional perceptions underlying the conflicts in the South Caucasus, such as sovereignty, ethnic self-determination, majority-minority relationships, national and ethnic territories, and based on this, establish new forms of governance in the region. A middle ground between self-rule and shared-rule The secessionist entities in Nagorny Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia demand a solution which would exclude their direct subordination to the central government. At the root of this claim lies a legitimate aspiration to be the masters of their own fate, provide for their own security and have a final say on decisions directly affecting them. Because of the widespread distrust and insecurity surrounding the conflicts, the public and elites in the breakaway territories overwhelmingly believe that their underlying needs could be met only through secession. As a result, citizens in the secessionist entities do not contemplate on other possible options which would essentially provide them with the same level of security and independence in conducting their affairs, without doing it at the expense of the underlying needs and interests of the other party. On the other hand, the public and elites in Azerbaijan and Georgia demand restoration of the country's territorial integrity. This demand is based on another legitimate concern that their nations may disintegrate if they fail to restore their territorial integrity. Similarly, because of the widespread distrust between and within the societies in conflict, the elites and public in both Azerbaijan and in Georgia have so far articulated their positions mostly from the prism of "restoring sovereignty and territorial integrity" of the State, often failing to draw the line between these two very different concepts and failing to realize that sovereignty does not always has to be "indivisible" but can also be shared. If to put aside the maximalist positions and instead focus on the underlying needs of the parties, it is possible to reconcile the secessionist entities' aspiration to independently govern themselves and nation's demand for preservation of their unity. This is possible through various forms of power-sharing, especially in its territorially based federal form, which would exclude the possibility of subordination, while still preserving the international borders. In Azerbaijan and Georgia, which traditionally perceived themselves as unitary States, there is a huge lack of knowledge on federalism, which encompasses constitutional, institutional and procedural arrangements. Federalism does not necessarily imply federation, and in fact, can exist even under a unitary system of government. In general, under federalism the public authority is constitutionally divided between national and the constituent regional units, which have their exclusive and shared competences. In the South Caucasus context, application of federalism in State governance would imply creation of a 91


system in which sovereignty would be constitutionally divided and shared between national and constituent political units, each of which would have exclusive competence on issues directly affecting them, and shared competence on issues of common concern. This governance would allow for maximum level of self-rule for the secessionist entities, while still preserving the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Federalism: indispensable but not sufficient However, there are several shortcomings to federalism, especially in the South Caucasus context, which if not dealt with properly can actually lead to further instability rather than peace. Since the resolution of the conflicts in the region would also imply the restoration of the conflict areas' multiethnic composition, under ethnic federalism will inevitably lead to disputes over "ethnic territories". Especially in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, considering that Nagorny Karabakh is situated inside of Azerbaijan and was completely surrounded by ethnic Azerbaijani-populated areas, and in Abkhazia, where ethnic Georgians outnumbered ethnic Abkhaz, the restoration of pre-war ethnic demographics, while important for peace, also constitutes one of the major security dilemmas to deal with. In such circumstances, federalism, especially ethnic federalism, if not complemented with integrative strategies, would serve to further entrench ethnic divisions. The federal entities, and their constituent parts, having received wide-ranging self-governance verging on a de facto independence, would have no incentives to cooperate with the central governments. This would in turn render governance ineffective and may lead to renewed conflict. In order to neutralize negative effects of ethnic federalism, particularly ethnic entrenchment, it should be complemented with parallel integrative mechanisms, which would provide channels of communication and incentives to communicate by binding the interests of the former foes and transforming them into allies. 4. The EU as the major center of gravity for the South Caucasus The EU can serve as an excellent example for South Caucasus nations to complement fragmentation with integration in order to neutralize the negative effects of the former. In general terms, this is possible through applying similar formula and practices adopted previously by tie EU in terms of economic and political integration and creating mutually beneficial economic and political partnerships, which would gradually transform themselves into supra-national structures. Integration limited to South Caucasus is not viable However, the fundamental truth about integration in the South Caucasus is that regional integration within the South Caucasus is not possible if not supported and complemented by the parallel process of wider European integration. The region is ridden with too many and too deep conflicts and rivalries, which disallow any meaningful locally driven integration processes limited to the region itself. In this regard, the failure of the short-lived independent Transcaucasus Confederation (1918) and Transcaucasian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic (1922-1936) should serve as learning examples for policy makers inside and outside the region. Furthermore, the South Caucasus is a mini-region with tough neighborhood surrounded by greater regional players, including Russia, which still views the region its sphere of influence. Therefore, despite its significant economic potential, the South Caucasus cannot provide independently for its security, political and economic development. It is vitally important for sustainable peace and development that all three South Caucasus nations belong to the same security, political and economic alliances in order to jointly provide for their interests, and reduce the possibility for external manipulations. The EU represents the only such regional setting which may serve as the uniting factor for all three South Caucasus nations. The European integration is perhaps the sole biggest issue on which all three South Caucasus nations, including Armenia and Azerbaijan, agree and share similar views and aspirations. Europeanization as a mechanism for conflict resolution in the South Caucasus

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The EU possesses several important features, which make it an efficient mechanism for preventing and resolving ethnic conflicts in the European periphery in general and in the South Caucasus in particular. With the evolution of the EU as a stability and prosperity zone in Europe, the number of countries aspiring to the EU membership has significantly increased. This gave the EU a significant political power to impose the rules of accession, the acquis communautaire. Before accession, all candidate countries should fulfil the acquis, which among other principles include compliance with democratic principles, rule of law, stable market economy, as well as minority protection and devolution of governance. Combined together these large-scale reforms serve as important tools for conflict prevention and resolution. Certainly the EU is not free of problems of secession either, as the lingering but largely non-violent conflicts in Northern Ireland, Basque Country or Cyprus demonstrate. However, problems notwithstanding, the EU is able to transform the attitudes and behaviours of the conflicting parties due to its 'soft powers' and institutional framework which allow for convergence of the interests among the subState, State and inter-State actors. In addition to above-mentioned features, in the South Caucasus context, the EU is also more appealing than any other alternative regional setting, such as the CIS, because the EU is not dominated by a single actor, which tries to impose its will on others. Nor does it rely on policy of pressures and intimidation as a major instrument of its foreign policy, providing incentives for certain behaviors instead. This is why the EU is the most appealing center of gravity in the European continent and overall all three South Caucasus nations aspire to greater integration with the EU. This integration is largely viewed as a means and process towards democratization, better governance, economic prosperity, and also more opportunities for conflict resolution and transformation. The EU integration will also serve to reinforce the integration on the South Caucasus scale. If we look at the history of integration of the Central and Eastern European States to the EU in early and mid1990s, we can see that the EU conditioned membership offer with their prior solution of bilateral problems threatening European stability (by supporting Stability Pact for the Central and Eastern European Countries; by encouraging the countries to sign bilateral agreements on friendship and good neighborliness etc). A similar process is under way in the Balkans now. In the South Caucasus, application of similar policies would also imply that the EU would condition integration with the regional actors' progress on achieving agreements, with active EU support, on issues threatening the European stability. Thus, the South Caucasus and wider European integration should be viewed as parallel and mutually reinforcing processes. It is also important to note that while giving all South Caucasus nations equal opportunities to integrate, the EU should employ a policy of 'multiple-speed integration', which would allow more successful applicants from the South Caucasus to accelerate the speed of their EU integration. This policy would allow for a positive rivalry, whereby the South Caucasus nations would 'compete' with each other on adoption of the EU norms and practices, so as not to lag behind one another. Last but not least, the inclusion of the South Caucasus into the EU "sphere of influence" could solve many geopolitical problems in the region. The EU is the only powerful actor, which may accommodate the interests of all other external parties involved in the South Caucasus region, who have so far rivaled with one another for influences in the region, thus facilitating to growing regional tensions. Thus, Turkey, which itself aspires to EU, is interested in strengthening of the EU's role in the egion, not least because this would increase Turkey's strategic importance for both the EU and the South Caucasus. Strengthening of the EU position in the Caucasus is not against the US interests either. In fact the EU and the US have walked hand-in-hand in articulating their policies in the South Caucasus in terms of response to the aspirations of the South Caucasus States to integration towards European and EuroAtlantic economic and security space. This scenario may also satisfy Iran, which otherwise is very cautious of strengthening US positions in its northern frontiers. It would also be beneficial for Iran in terms of its economic relations with the EU. And finally, the strengthening of the EU in the South Caucasus could be beneficial for the Russian-EU relations. In case of further improvement in EU-Russia relations, Russia would not oppose the EU's more active involvement in the South Caucasus, at least not in the same manner as it would oppose to NATO's enlargement in the region. To the contrary, considering that unlike NATO the EU is perceived as much less confrontational and non-threatening economicpolitical actor, the EU's enlargement to the South Caucasus may be beneficial for Russia and its relations with the EU, allowing for a closer economic and political cooperation between the two. 93


Conclusion What the South Caucasus elites and public need today is to articulate a common vision, which would lead to a common discourse. This vision and discourse should serve to break win-lose attitudes dominant in the region by emphasizing on common values, needs and aspirations. As this article argued, in the South Caucasus context this vision and discourse could be based on an understanding that federalism at a national level combined with regional and European integration in supra-national level can pave the way for peace and development in the South Caucasus. In order for this process to start, there is an urgent need to engage elites and general public in the South Caucasus in a genuine and open debate on various most sensitive issues, including discussion on carrying out substantial reforms in their State governance. The road to peace and development lies only in conscious and informed decision of the people. Therefore, civil society, including scholars, and political elites should assume a leadership role to inform and educate people on these issues, so that better informed people would make better decisions for themselves. * MA in International Relations and European Studies (Central European University, Budapest). Analyst for Azerbaijan with the International Crisis Group. The views expressed in the article belong to the author. Diplomatiya aləmi .2008.-№18-19.-P.81-87.

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Azerbaijan’s national parks by fiona maclachlan Domestic policy. Ecology. National Resources Access to Azerbaijan's National Parks is opening up. There are currently eight parks open to the public, with Goy-Gol, the newest, added to the list this year. For a newly independent country, these steps indicate a special commitment to conservation. Thank goodness, because this country is so unique and so amazing in many ways. Many areas have been designated as Nature Reserves over the years, but the newer National Park designation indicates a commitment to encourage access. Climatic and geographical variety within such a small area is unmatched by any other country - just a few hours' drive takes you from semi-desert through grasslands and forest and up to unique villages and mountain passes, cut off by snow except in summer, and these are still virtually at the foot of Europe's highest mountains. Add to this fascinating diversity of landscape the fact that Azerbaijan was for many recent years relatively unexplored because of Soviet restrictions. Prior to this, Azerbaijan's location at the crossroads of civilisations was of strategic importance. The same can be said of today's Azerbaijan. Rural life here follows an ancient pattern. There are vast agricultural landscapes which are still largely tended by hand, where no pesticides or fertilisers are used; meadows filled with brightly coloured wild flowers; land is generally unfenced; shepherds herd their flocks of sheep and goats; horses and donkeys are a part of everyday life and every child can ride bareback. Summers are hot and winters cold, and every year follows the same seasonal pattern of planting, bumper harvests and storing for winter. Rural life in Azerbaijan sounds idyllic, and for us onlookers it is. However, those involved in the daily grind are probably more than glad to see the arrival of shiny tractors, combine harvesters, new roads and so on. Today's explorers, and indeed property developers, can wander much of Azerbaijan with a freedom almost unknown in history. The rural population is under pressure to make a living. Together these put immense pressure on this special environment. Internationally recognised National Parks, therefore, can hopefully preserve some of the idyll, while supporting those that live within the boundaries, whether flora, fauna or man. Of course the parks have not been open for long, and the practicalities of running and staffing the parks for visitors is still in the early stages. But I have decided to visit them all in turn and, with special permission from the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources who are happy; to support my venture, I shall let you know how I get on. The signs at the entrance to the parks list optimistically the species which the park is intended to protect. For further information on this, it is best to speak directly to the « Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, because information at the parks is limited. If there is something in particular that you want to see, or a species you want to know about, then this is your best route to information. Staff at he Ministry in Baku speak good English and will be delighted and proud to help you. Any difficulties you may have in arranging your trip ill be offset by the pleasure of being amongst the first eco-tourists in Azerbaijan, and seeing such a wonderful environment at first hand. (And then, like me, you will want to share the experience.) For further information, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources can be contacted by email in English, Russian or Azerbaijani at [email protected]. Their new website http://www.eco.gov.az/ should also be a good resource. Altiaghaj National Park Situated about an hour and a half s drive from Baku (120 km), Altiaghaj is a world away from the dry semi-desert which surrounds the city. It is difficult to believe you are on the same planet, as it is such a particularly beautiful and restful area. This is one of my favourite days out from Baku. Winter or summer (though preferably spring for the flowers), there is always plenty to see. Drive north from Baku past Sumqayit, the old Soviet industrial city, and onto the dual carriageway heading up the coast towards Quba. After some distance the dual carriage way becomes a two way road, and a further 7 km ahead, in the village of Galesi, turn left towards the village of Khizi (Xizi). Once off the main road and through the village you are into the foothills of the Caucasus Mountains, travelling up the Tikhli River valley, past the wonderful hilly landscape dubbed the Candy Cane Mountains by travel 95


writer Mark Elliot. Keep straight on, and as you climb out of the valley the vegetation becomes greener and greener, and in spring and early summer the roadside flowers are fantastic, whetting your appetite for the National Park ahead. Just stop and take a walk and you'll find dainty purple Iris reticulata among those grazing cows with bells around their necks; a little bit later in the season you'll find bee orchids; then crops filled with magnificent purple wild gladioli. Khizi village, at the top of the hill, is the capital of Khizi District, but despite its official importance there isn't much to stop for, except the unexpected traffic lights. Beyond Khizi the road drops back down, via a hairpin bend, into a valley set in a scenic undulating landscape of hills and deciduous forest. Follow the road and you will drive through the entrance to the National Park. The facilities here are new and comprise a good space for educational purposes with a classroom and so on. This park covers over 11,000 hectares and comprises mostly deciduous mountain forest. It was established in 2004 on a state nature reserve and took in some adjacent state-owned forest land as well. The park borders villages with the prettiest of white and blue painted Russian cottages. While it's an easy day trip, many people like to come and stay in this beautiful area, particularly in summer, and there are various popular accommodation options in the vicinity. Delicious samovar chay is served in little chaykhanas or tea gardens in the woods by the river. Up above in the forest, bears roam free in this wonderful environment, protected by national park status. Ask at the entrance office about what you can access in the park. There is a road route around the park, some 20-25 km long, which takes in the variety of scenery including a very special meandering mountainside section through deep forest. Some of the route affords wide open views across open landscape studded with juniper. In early March the forest floor has drifts of snowdrops; in the open clearings the wet flushes are home to masses of spring flowering crocuses. Later in the month Scilla and then Primula and tiny violets take over, with Muscari in the dry open areas. Then cowslips and anemones (the Caucasian anemone, Anemone Caucasica). In May the forest floor is shaded but in the clearings you will find beautiful orchids. Wild sweet peas, campanulas and many other flowers are just at the roadside. There are so many species endemic to this part of the world to look out for. Access to exquisite plant life couldn't be easier. When leaving the park and heading back to Baku, stop in the Candy Canes and pay a visit to the Mushfiq Museum to find out about the unfortunate story of the poet Mikayil Mushfiq who loved his country. Look out for the statue of a tar on the hillside opposite. Absheron National Park Or how to stand on the tip of an eagle’s beak After a trip to the Absheron National Park, I was telling my friend all about it. You get to stand right on the very tip of the eagle's beak -something I had wanted to do ever since I came to Azerbaijan. The shape of the map of Azerbaijan is often described an eagle in flight, with the Absheron Peninsula, which extends out into the Caspian Sea, as the beak of the eagle. The Absheron National Park, com-] prising some 783 hectares of low lying semi-desert grassland, is at the very end bf the Absheron Peninsula. Formerly a Mature reserve, this area was decreed a National Park in 2005. To reach the park you need to drive approximately 70 km from Baku, roughly an hour's drive. Head out past the airport and then take a right turn following signs to Zira. Here you are right in the middle of the Absheron Peninsula, and the flat relatively featureless landscape alternates between olive groves, oil industry nodding donkeys, low lying villages and desert scrub land. It's a little hard to believe you are on your way to a national park. Turn right immediately after the Abu Petrol station and you enter the Zira settlement. Continue to the left and nature takes over as glimpses of the Caspian Sea on either side of the road give clues to the approaching end of the peninsula. And just when there is seemingly nothing else left to turn up to, here is the entrance to the National Park. Entrance is by ticket at the gate, 2 AZN for Azerbaijani visitors, and 4 AZN for foreign citizens. Our guide for the afternoon was Namiq. He has worked at the park since 1998 and has been involved in protecting the area. His knowledge is based on his experience of the park over these years. What do you want to see? - he asked. Everything, I replied. He jumped in our car and we were off. Namiq doesn't 96


speak any English, but I had been warned beforehand so had taken Visions editorial board member Vusala to help me with the translating. We travelled in our personal car, but it was a bit 'city smart' for the terrain, and I would recommend a local Lada Niva 4x4 or an old UAZ jeep if you can get hold of one. We drove along tracks which were barely perceptible through the grassland, over the sandy terrain, along the beaches, and through a shallow lake. Namiq was confident in our route, and as we went he explained how the peninsula had been under water depending on the level of the Caspian Sea, which rises and falls. He explained something of land use during Soviet times, how melons had been grown here, Chinar (or plane) trees planted, and how this had been affected by the changing, brackish water levels and the high levels of sa| exposure. There are also some old concrete remains from Soviet oil exploration. Being March the most colourful aspect of the landscape was the amazingly bright yellow lichen, which features on the local entrance ticket. We saw plenty of large birds of prey whicl Namiq told us were eagles, and green-headed ducks (mallards) and some large white vulture-like birds. Typically you might expect to see jackals or foxes, though we didn't. Come in May for the colourful flowers, Namiq told us, and in May or June you can go by boat to Tyulen or Seal Island to see the Caspian seals. German scientists apparently spent some time here last summer (2007) studying the grasses. However, Namiq very proudly found us two other much loved park inhabitants - a couple of grand old lady Bactrian camels. We had followed their footprints along the sands and Namiq had eagerly watched out for them, keen for us to get a good look. For me the tip of the eagle's beak was the highlight. Whether this highlight is enough to drag you out from the cosy cafe bars of Baku (or air-conditioned, depending on the time of year) is up to you. You can bring your own picnic and eat on the beach, though they don't allow swimming. But a visit to this park is the closest you'll get to discovering what the countryside just outside Baku was really like, many years ago. A visit here might be low key, but nonetheless the environment is special. The Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources have plans to extend the facilities here to include, for example, picnic areas. Well done to the conservationists of Absheron National Park! Visions of Azerbaijan.-2008.-Spring.-P.16-25.

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Globalization process and moral-ethical problems in Azerbaijan Shahla Musayeva The modern periods is already characterized as a globalization period embracing already all fields of life. It is noted that a fully comprehensive and fair character of globalization is possible only for the humankind being able to preserve its uniqueness through wide-scale and resolute formation of the common future based on the common destiny. The globalization process has formed different opinions among philosophers and politicians. Therefore there have appeared supporters of globalization and anti-globalization. The supporters of globalization view this process as intensification of the general integration of the political, economic, social-cultural life on the world-wide scale, while the followers of anti-globalization estimate globalization as a serious threat to national-moral values and national exclusivity According to H. Holm and Jorensen, the globalization is an intensification of trans-border economic, political, social and cultural relations (1, p.1). Roland Robertson used the term “globalization” for the first time in 1983. Robertson attributed the globalization to the fields of cultural and arts consciousness (2). In the post-Soviet space, including Azerbaijan, the globalization idea is becoming real. The Azerbaijani philosopher Ramiz Mehdiyev gives several reasons of the globalization influence on the postSoviet space: “First, the Western world having passed through the heavy tests of the 70s, has confirmed its leading role in the world economy. Second, the information-communication revolution has enabled to connect all the corners of our planet with each other. Third, the failure of Communism has pushed forward the liberal values on the world scale. Fourth, the cultural exchange of masses has acquired a serious importance among the world countries”. Anti-globalists take the globalization as a domination of the economic and cultural interests of the West over the entire world. Under globalization national-moral values are really facing great threats and it is very difficult to save them without the national-philosophical thought, ensuring the formation of the national ideology, and forming the national-social self-protection (3, p.269). The anti-globalists speak of “global dangers”. There exist different approaches to the globalization: 1. The period of global economic rise. The period newly appeared in the world. Many distinguished Western scientists and politicians such as R. Darendorf, F. Nusheler, O. Zafonshen, B. Games claim optimistically that alongside with the economic development the globalization makes a positive influence on all spheres of the society. They note that the globalization has created possibilities the mankind has earlier not been able to do and dreamed of. 2. The period of the global multi-cultural society. The globalization reflects in itself a special quality in intercultural and political relations. The globalization wipes off the borders established during thousands of years, destroys identity. According to this approach, the globalization indicates increase in the world conflicts. 3. The globalization means transformation. From the point of view of this approach, there is a destruction of traditional social-political rules based on principles of state sovereignty and nationalcultural integration. 4. The globalization as the destruction of culture and traditions. The supporters of this viewpoint are radical opponents of the globalization. Thus, the ideas about the universality the civil-legal status has found its reflection in the concept of the globalization. In XX century the multilateral cooperation between the states reflects attempts to carry out interest of both the global regulatory organizations, and the states. In order to maintain their independence, the states must ensure their domestic interests. Talks and common interests are included into relations between national and transnational interests. However, a conflict crop up between internal personal interests and common interests. Here interdependence acts as a basic factor. Foreign interests depend on the state assistance, and founders - outside means. The ways to remove possible negative influential opportunities of the globalization on morals are grouped as follows: 1. Taking into consideration in advance possible negative results. 2. Compensation of necessary negative results of information and technological “interventions” by other means (religion, 98


morals, arts, etc.). 3. Elaborating new modern intensive methods of moral education and increasing its mass character (3, с.274). Under the globalization new qualitative features emerge in connection with taking into consideration for the person not only national interests, but also interests common to all mankind. Morals once more leave the framework of the person –the relation of the person and nature acquiring a global scale put forward new moral problems. In the modern period the anti-globalists accept the policy carried out by the USA as “the restoration of the devil’s power”. Philosophy of morals combining new types of moral, national ethics – business ethics, ecological ethics is put against the globalization morals. Many directions of ethics of the modern period are limited. Global ethics, ethics of justice and human rights (liberal ethics), and bioethics (responsibility ethics) are attributed to them. The representatives of global ethics – K.Y. Apel, G.Kiung, Y.Habermas and others having put forward an idea of existence of different identity in the world in their different variants, show that absolute morals always displays itself as special moral motive and behavior. According to absolute ethics, peace in the world and peace in the person are interdependent and the absolute values are moral imperatives. Absolute ethics does not stand along with special moral motives connected other benefit and wisdom. Absolute morals act in an extraordinary motive role. For the world to survive in the modern life as consolidated single human union is necessary. At this time the extraordinary motive is put forward as absolute morals for everybody. It must be acknowledged that in the existence of absolute morals of Christianity and Islam takes part too (4, p.136-117). Both Moslem morals and Christian morals are not single. Christian morals do not control the consciousness of the West. Both in the religious absolute, in the secular absolute a problem of weakness display itself. I. Mamed-zade explains this weakness correctly. He shows that absolute morals do not come from God and mind only. He explains it by the Moslem and Christian Gods’ not uniting in the single absolute and people’s differing from each other due to language, interest, group morals and concrete behavior. The Azerbaijani scientist also explains acceptably the utopian vision of global ethics in our country: “Its reason lies in the fact that absolute ethics or global ethics must come forth from understanding the single destiny of the region in the Caucasus. Global ethics can arise in Azerbaijan at the time when we are able to comprehend the living of other peoples in the Caucasus and necessity of cooperation with them. Therefore global ethics must be multi-staged, from absolute values it must enter the concrete life, diversity of cultures of this or other region and culture with loyalty (respect), must turn into the fact of a real life in the world” (5, p.138). But some researchers view absolute values, global ethics as a dictate of the globalization over the special, national personality. They think that global ethics moves toward removing borders of the private and the national, unite them. 1.Mamed-zade marks the special role of the “Universal Declaration of Human Rights” signed in 1948 and the “Declaration on Global Ethics” adopted in 1993. They have some special functions in formation of the basic values of global ethics. These declarations prove superiority of the basic human rights of global ethics before group values and morals. This first principle of global ethics is in turn conditioned by the following rules – to get far from violence culture, respect to life, solidarity culture, a fair economic rule, tolerance, truthfulness, equality and cooperation between men and women. These principles come from mind and reality as the source of moral powers and hope” (4, p.142). Alongside with the positive influence of the globalization, it is shown as the cause of its many negative problems, international criminality, extremism, nationalism, creation of regress in social systems and structures in many countries. The subordination of strategic-systematic rationalism to communicative rationalism in the discursive theory is not a law, but an imperative for practical-ethical mind. The discursive ethics calls for changing interests, inclinations formed in global economy and interested countries for active understanding of the condition, protecting their interests through political means. In this sense Azerbaijan along with accepting global economic, political and cultural values, is determined to protect its interests, to unite its national-moral values with values common to all mankind. 99


In the globalization process discursive ethics, global ethics, bioethics and ecological ethics must comprehend and analyze through joint efforts ethic problems, must reveal objectively negative and positive features ethical-moral aspects of the globalization. In modern Azerbaijan the ethical culture, its formation, new functions and approaches being created under the globalization have been touched upon only in the works of employees of the Institute of Philosophy and Political-Legal Research of the NAS of Azerbaijan - Professor Yusif Rustamov, Doctor of Philosophy I. Mamed-zade, Candidates of Philosophy D. Muslim-zade, S. Allahverdiyeva, S. Hasanova and others. When speaking about ethical or ideological aspects of the globalization, globalism is characterized as an ideology. The ethical analysis of the globalization shows that this process is a dialogue of consciousnesses. Globalism is linked to positive sides of global processes. The market economy and transnational corporations destroy the traditional culture. The traditional consciousness and traditional culture are shown as factors hindering development. Information context of the globalized culture is taken as prevalence over political and other contexts” (4, p.66). The modern period is also featured as a “period of transition to Global Democracy”. Global renovations occurring in this period have caused a cultural shock in the mankind. The cultural shock continues in three stages: 1.Accepting and preserving traditions, customs, values and norms of the native culture; 2. A partial acceptance of traditions and values of an alien culture; 3. Assimilation (accepting an alien culture in full and the swallowing up of they native culture by the alien culture) (Revival – XXI century (in Azeri), 2003, N#65, p.142) This process takes place on the public and personal level. In the process of the globalization there are people going through different levels of the shock process in Azerbaijan. One can also encounter people living with traditional culture and consciousness, people having accepted Western culture in part and living with the traditional culture, and people got westernized in full. During the cultural shock mutually antagonistic ideologies and world outlooks collide, struggle. During the transition from the closed to the open society, to global democracy, during the acceptance of new ideas, norms, and values a psychological tension, an inadmissible confusion, an abnormal situation arise. As the post-Soviet countries, Azerbaijan too experiences a dual transition stage: the transition to local and global democracy. The local transition - is a transition to independence, the building of the local civil society and legal state, a new market economy. The transition to global democracy – is being integrated into the world culture, universal values and norms. P. Stomkan called the post-Soviet people “Homo Sovetikus”. Lodzu Mizalkam shows 5 signs of the cultural damage in the post socialist countries: 1. Disbelief syndrome ; 2. Pessimistic vision of the future; 3. Nostalgia for the past times; 4. Political apathy; 5. Post Communist traumas of the collective memory. An abnormal situation in the Azerbaijani society, negative values considered a universal trouble – criminality, human trade, and other troubles, alienation of the personality, immorality, loneliness, drug addiction, alcoholism, suicide and others display themselves as manifestations of the crisis of the personality and the society. In the globalization process the Azerbaijani society appropriates both positive and negative values of the West. Azerbaijan’s state at war aggravates the situation more. During the modern globalization period the following attitudes to values manifest themselves in Azerbaijan. On the one hand, a speedy Westernization, on the other hand, a fanatical return to Islamic values, thirdly, the national-moral values are propagated in archaic ways. Practically, the synthesis of these relations must be used in cognition of universal moral values. “The critical radical mind is valuable only in integrity with love and life as the most precious human values. The general and eternal values – beauty, kindness, love, high moral qualities of man and woman, etc. are accepted by the entire mankind in the same way. 100


The globalization is not only westernization. It is a process leading to cultural-moral pluralism. In Azerbaijan experiencing transition to global democracy the state and political power try to regulate the society, to balance mass psychology, changes in moral-ethical field. Thus, the globalization being the most serious, greatest event of XX-XXI centuries taking place in the life of the mankind is continuing to enter people’s moral, private lives as a difficult, contradictory process. Te mankind is getting integrated as a single whole. However, in the course of this integration alongside with the establishment of the system of positive values, painful problems are also revealed. As in all fields, the globalization gets new qualities in the moral life as well, destroys many existing moral norms, and dictates its conditions also in morality. The globalization makes an impact on the following fields of the modern society: 1) Economic life; 2) Political life; 3) Cultural life; 4) Ecological life and 5) Moral life. In the post-Soviet space, including Azerbaijan, the legal state now ongoing its process of formation, the differentiation principles of the state and the society. In the course of the globalization contradictions appear between the system of new universal moral values and the old ideals. The moral values capable to meet the requirements of the globalization standards, gain superiority, turn into national, universal resources, occupy a place for itself in the society, in the moral life of an individual and gets stronger. Notes 1. S. Huntington. The Clash of Civilizations. 1993. 2. R. Robertson. Globalization. London, 1992. 3. S.sKhalilov. East and West: towards the Universal Ideal. Baku: “Azerbaijan University” Publishing House, 2004. 4. I.R. Mamed-zade. Introduction to Ethics. Baku: Muallim, 2004. 5. I.R. Mamed-zade. Civil Society in Azerbaijan: Problems and Prospects // Political Ethics and Some Other Problems of Transitional Period. Baku: Tefekkur, 1988. Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-N4.-P.26-30.

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What is happening in the system of higher education in the modern world and how should “State Programme on reforms in the system of higher education of Azerbaijan in 2008-2012” be good? Hamlet Isakhanly, Professor This writing discourses upon general and special problems of higher education, relations of science, the state and business world with higher education, comparison of processes developing in the world with what is happening in Azerbaijan in the field of higher education, and, at last, the preparatory work of the state programme on reforms in the system of higher education initiated by the President of the Azerbaijan Republic. The analysis of basic problems arisen in our system of higher education is given and ways of their solution are shown. While working on this writing, along with benefiting from the articles and books I have written about education policy I had to address to my recent scientific analyses about events taking place in our time. Information I obtained from the present president of the European University Association, former rector of the Vienna University, former president of Austria Rectors’ Conference George Winckler, the Counselor of the Swiss Federal Government and Canton Governments, former rector of the Geneva University, the Chairman of the Swiss Rectors’ Conference, the Member of Managing Board building the European University Association Luc E. Weber, and the Honorable Pensioner President of the Michigan University James J. Duderstadt and some other prominent experts have been very useful in my work; I express my deep gratitude to them. I am thankful to “The Glion Colloquium Association” and “The Chronicle of Higher Education” where I studied many years. I thank the members of Education Commission under the Azerbaijan President for chances to discuss a number of significant problems. It’s possible both to crawl, as well as to flap wings. Between wishes and objectivity In the major part of the 20th century education, including higher education was considered a state work, social commodity, a product grown by the government, a service the state rendered to its own people. And in the modern time higher education is both the state work, and also a private activity type. Education makes both the individual, and also the society change, develop, and, surely, it also bears a private significance. And the leading trends in the world show higher education with time becomes private service. However, as in all times, also today without a right state policy in the educational field it is impossible to gain some big success. All the states (excluding very few) in the world want to solve simultaneously three big problems connected to higher education: 1) to make higher education popular, i.e. to make it as much accessible for all as possible, 2) to increase the quality of higher education, and 3) not to increase (not to increase much, not to increase at all, and even to decrease) state expenditures on higher education. This, certainly, is a difficult task, and therefore always is on agenda. An ideal solution of this problem does not exist, and its more or less acceptable solution demands a thoroughly prepared state programme and a political will and a serious, right management for its implementation. The idea “Education is the most important, paramount problem of the state” is accepted undoubtedly. Though this idea is confirmed on words, more truly, on the political arena, the reality is different. What are the social security and especially scholarship? And the public health, insurance system? And the struggle against poverty? And the national security? Aren’t these candidates to be the most important, paramount of the state either? The difficulty of the problem and the world experience shows that the idea “higher education is not only the job of the state, but as time goes is more the job of the private sector” is not groundless. The entire developed, developing world, West, the Middle and Far East have accepted or have had to accept it. At the modern period the power of wealth, money is by many times increasing in correlation to politics, the army and the civil status. However, the force of human dignity, feeling of love and freedom also being strong leads to creation of a certain balance, to maintain at certain degree equilibrium between wealth and justice. The state, media and the education system can be considered among guardians of this 102


balance. Given that the mass media brings to the foreground daily events and sources, deeper and more long-range function fall on universities. School training gives an opportunity to pass the knowledge treasury gained by the mankind to new generations, and research – having widened this knowledge to enrich them, and having applied them to change life for the better. The educational center is a master of decisive authority in the problem of understanding of the responsibility before the society, feelings of citizenship, protection and development of our culture. The appearance and development of highly authoritative higher schools in Azerbaijan as well is a national work. Saying national, I mean the state and people. If people, individuals do not do their work enthusiastically, passionately, selflessly and professionally, works within the state will not be done. This is especially so in education. If the state does not create conditions, order frameworks are not drawn correctly, a right plan is not made correctly, the work done for private endeavor cannot be fruitful either. The state must undertake the function to develop the system of higher education in a whole, i.e. to change, renovate and strengthen it through carrying out reforms. This function consists, obviously, of two parts: it is necessary make programme of reforms in unison with the world by means of having closely traced analyzing processes, trends and inclinations going in the world, by examining the problems existing today in our education system and the ways of their solution. Concerning this, the President of the Azerbaijan Republic signed the order “On some measures connected with the integration of institutions of higher education of the Azerbaijan Republic to the European education space” (January 31, 2008). The preparation of the project “State Programme on reforms in the system of higher education of the Azerbaijan Republic in 2008 – 2012” is an important article of this order. The main purpose of this our writing is to help, though little, to find a right and comprehensive answer to the question “How should this State Programme be good?” The second part of the function to carry out strong reforms in the system of higher education is the systematic and persistent implementation of the State Programme to be adopted. We have seen many plans during all our life, and we have read about building of plans which number surpasses our age. A little part of these plans have been realized, a big part have stayed on paper or works have been done not by essence, but superficially, the life have continued as earlier (or with a little difference). Our developing country, people and state have no right to lose time, to abandon right plans in half. Because one of the most important component parts of our development consists of having appropriated successes of the developed world in the field of education, science, and technology to apply and develop in our country. WHO does advance in time lags behind? It’s possible both to crawl, as well as to flap wings between wishes and reality... Yesterday of higher education in Europe About 500 hundred years ago Europe started to undertake on itself the role of history’s new master, new leader. Europeans’ discovery of America and endeavor to learn the globe at once enlarged their little world very much. With publishing house and book printing gathering big strength in Europe, start of formation of universities and scientific thought the European period of history started. With the development of capitalism, Europe left the rest of the world behind. But in the 20th century conflicts and mutual massacres among Europeans reached the zenith. Europe became the arena of two world wars. In 1945 Americans and Soviets met in Germany in the center of Europe – this was the end of the European period of history, hegemony of the Europe in the world policy and economy. 1957–year-Soviet sputnik shook not the sky, but America and Europe, even ... mobilized. The integration inclinations in the West started to grow seriously. The treaty (Rome) on European Economic Union (“Common Market” of Europe) signed in 1957, did not see education as an all-European work. In 60-s the first all-European higher education establishment called the Permanent Commission of Heads of European Universities (was known by its abbreviation in French – CRE, the predecessor of the European University Association) was created. And in 1971 the first meeting and Declaration of supreme member – minister of education was elaborated; these meetings got a periodical character. In the end of 70-s the mutual recognition problem formed in education and in the mid 80-s the mechanism of student research and teachers’ move from one country to another was worked, the famous “ERASMUS” and later on “SOCRATES” programmes starting in 1987 began to carry out this program successfully. One of the interesting documents of these years was “Magna Charter Universitatum” signed in Bologna in 1988, with this the independence of universities was brought to the foreground in Europe. After the fall of 103


socialism in order to assist the modernization of the system of higher education of the East Europe and the former Soviets, the European Union started to implement a new programme called TEMPUS (1990). This program continuing also today widened very much east-west higher education labor cooperation. The Maastricht treaty signed in 1991 made official the idea of the European Union to work for “training in the name of education, quality and flourishing of culture”. The Joint Convention of the European Council and UNESCO (Lisbon, April 11, 1997) about the classification related to higher education and document recognition can be counted one more step on the way of perfection of European higher education system. This Convention embraced issues of possibility to receive higher education, duration of education and recognition of higher education documents as well as the creation of corresponding mechanisms. The Schengen understanding states united as a unit of single currency carrying out the European policy were to make new steps having joined these efforts. At the meeting of ministers responsible for higher education of four big European states – France, Italy, Great Britain and Germany on May 25, 1998 in Universite Paris – Sorbonne “Joint declaration on harmonizing architecture of the European Higher education system” was adopted. This Declaration set forward an idea of creation of the European higher education space and declaring it open. It supported continuation by students of their education passing from one country to another and regulation through measure units called education credits. There was achieved an agreement about higher education consisting of two stages and conducting school training and research in the framework of magistrates or a more long-term doctorates after the first stage. With the purpose to turn the initiative of the four states into the pan-European movement a meeting of ministers responsible for higher education of 29 European countries was held in the most ancient university of Europe built in Bologna on June 19, 1999. At this meeting where three Baltic States from the former Soviets participates as well, the “Joint Declaration of the European Ministers of Higher Education” was adopted. In order to create ... the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) that will in a short time until 2010 come to the foreground in the global competition, it was decided to achieve the following targets (to make it simple, we give the articles not one by one as in the Joint Declaration, but in a grouped way): 1. To carry out an education system that can be easily understood and compared and consists of two stages. The first or the stage lasts minimum 3 years, and the second stage must lead to the master and/or doctor’s degree. 2. To provide that students, teachers, researchers, and administrative staff can move freely from one country to another, when determining students’ movement, to apply the European Credit Pass System. 3. To work for determining the European countries in higher education in order to provide quality and to cooperate in preparation of criteria and methodologies. When implementing this programme, the importance of respectful approach to the national education systems, language and cultural distinctions, autonomy of universities was especially emphasized. After that the process of creation of the European Higher Education Area received the name of the Bologna Process (I think the name Sorbonne -Bologna Process would be more right). The Lisbon Strategy (2000) setting forth the aim of turning the European Union into the most developed knowledge economy of the world, together with the Bologna Process aiming at creating the European Higher Education and Science Areas are a component part of the movement to build secure Europe. In order to admit new countries willing to coordinate the successful realization of the Bologna Process and to join it, the ministers responsible for higher education started to meet once in two years. At their meetings in Prague, May 19, 2001, and Berlin, September 19, 2003, the number of the countries joined the Bologna Process reached 40. As a result of the Berger (Norway) meeting of May 19, 2005 also Azerbaijan joined this process officially, the number of the countries made 45 (at present, after the London meeting of 2007 this figure is 46). Everybody accepted that higher schools and students are important players at the Bologna Process, the must to listen to them, to consider them. The ministers emphasized the necessity to work in close connection with the organizations the European University Association (EUA), the European Union Association of Higher Education Schools Association (ERUASHE), the European National Students Unions Association (ESIB), the European Net for Quality Provision and significance of cooperation with them. 104


As a development of the Bologna Joint Declaration, it was noted important to create alongside with the European Higher Education Area the European Analysis Area, doctor (Ph. D programmes being both the third high stage of education, and a scientific-research degree. The idea of elaboration of the Burga (inter-countries, inter-universities master and doctor programmes was set forth (was started to be carried out in the next years). The ministers undertook an obligation using every possibility and means to enable everyone to receive higher education. And the basic requirement of the European universities became responsible independence. The application of the strict administrative management from the top hinders the dynamic development of a higher education school, does not make it possible to operatively respond to the demands of the changing environment and increase the strength of competition. The Bologna Process shows that in choosing a higher education model Europe took the America as a sample. The Bologna process has been demonstrating that the European higher education system is on Americanization way. The higher education and analysis area built on the three-stage-degree system, the comparative accumulation principle based on credit units comes namely from the United States, the leader of higher education in the world. At last, starting from April, 2008 in Europe with its much disperse in the quality measuring issue, there was given a sign on building of all-European mechanism for so long we had been waiting for. As it is seen, the Bologna Process does not consist of the credit system only! (The Bologna Process, one can say, is identified with the application of credit system in Azerbaijan.) The availability of higher education, giving common degrees at the levels of magistrates and doctorates of higher education schools, school net building around such kind of ideas, bringing system of higher education to the state of comparative ability – harmonization, independence, transparency and responsibility of higher schools, bringing scientific research to the foreground, high quality standing in the base of everything, preparation of all-European quality measure – these are the basic elements of the Bologna Process! In short, the wish of the Bologna Process – is to turn Europe into the area of qualitative higher education and the high-level research. Yesterday of higher education in Azerbaijan and the Bologna Process Problems linked to education turned into the theme of heated discussions in the Azerbaijani state joined independence in 1991. One thing was clear – it was impossible to make changes fast including the education system, and even if possible, it is dangerous. At least, some period, even though it is inert, the Soviet-type education forms would continue. On the other hand, alongside with the new political and economic models entering the changing world the appearance in essence and form new education centers must be viewed usual. Throughout history, small countries (and a number of large countries) did not posses an original and greatly differing from other education systems. Only big states and empires, great civilizations built their original education system, accepted this culture, and peoples under its influence, possibly, appropriated this system making a little change. Azerbaijan education history and education system also must be learnt, classified and analyzed not in separate, isolated form, but in the context of the civilizations it entered, as their component part. By taking the American experience as a basis, starting from the autumn of 1990 formation of Khazar University was started. For the first time in our country the work was run on bachelor, master, doctor (Ph. D) degrees and programmes, so that the model called credit system and enabling every student to progress by a private education trajectory, was built. There was made a pass to the 100-score and stage evaluation system of the student’s knowledge the periodical publishing of the university catalogues, the policy to conduct anonymous interrogation with students, from the teacher-centered system reigning in the country to the student-centered system based on the interactive training methods (it is not an easy work, lays in the base of a different culture). Numerous contemporary ideas, forms and methods related to education were for the first time in our country discussed and applied, passed the test, practiced and polished namely at Khazar University. There were two basic reasons of elaborating and carrying out by us namely this higher education model – the fact that the America is, surely, a world leader in the field of higher education and our belief that Azerbaijan is also going to join Europe and it would prefer this model in the near future. And this happened so – the purport of the all-European education reforms programme (of the Bologna Process) started in 1999 and aiming at creating the European Higher Education Area, was to join, harmonize the European education systems on the base of namely the American higher education model. Thus, 8 years 105


before the Bologna Process started in Europe, Khazar University had opened for itself and Azerbaijan a new way, played the role of the country’s main experience arena having successfully carried out the education model of the future. And because the national transition to the two-stage education was carried out without serious preparatory work, not step-by-step, but in popular, campaign form, higher education schools could not understand in full the purpose, content and differences of the bachelor and master programmes, the traces of this incompleteness are seen today also. To add, the essence and form of education-research system following the magistrates is in obscure situation today as well. In Azerbaijan there is an incomprehensible resistance to the three-stage system already with a few exceptions accepted in Europe and in the entire world, the attitude of our Milli Mejlis (parliament) to this problem is for a while strange: “let neither spit, nor kebab burn”, “what of it, let one stage be extra?!”. Let us bring examples of the important steps made in the education field in the period of independence (in the chronological order): 1. The creation and activities of the private sector. Certainly, there are good and middle-fairly good, as well as weak higher schools. However, the development speed and openness to renovation of this sector increases its competitive force. Few examples of education enterprises gained serious success in the fight against corruption or achieved quality having applied the most modern educational-training forms are usually brought from the private sector! 2. The creation and activities of the central examination system on student admittance (of the extreme centralization alongside with defective features not existing in any country. 3. Coming to life of school building and repair works. 4. Publishing books with Latin letters financed by the State. It would be unfair to turn a blind eye to the achievements we have gained. And our today’s problem of vital importance is to think about our lagging fields, to benefit from the world experience, to re-view our development strategy. The Education Policy Institute is active at the Khazar University. The purpose of the Institute is to learn the world experience, to work on problems of increasing quality and its measurement, to examine the development way of the education policy and the education system in Azerbaijan, in special case to follow closely the Bologna Process and to render assistance to interested sides in this field. This Institute seems to be the only one in our country that can follow all events taking place in the education field throughout the world, can apply having analyzed, examined them. Contemporary higher education and higher school Until 1930-s the written language of natural sciences was mainly the German language. As a result of the rise of fascism and its later break-up, in parallel strengthening of the United States of America the German language had to yield its place to English. Now the basic language and the second language of the world peoples is English. This factor in the great strengthening of higher schools of the English-speaking countries played an important role. The role of the emigration from Europe and the “brain drain” must also be noted in the America’s strengthening. Alongside with the United States, higher schools of the Great Britain, Canada, Austria turned into the gravitation center. Australian student influx and the creation of the branches of the Australian universities in foreign countries are a sparkling sample to it. The continental Europe stayed behind in this competition, language differences, social insurance rules in its countries, for example, a different scholarship systems, are of the factors conditioning this relative lagging. (George Winckler – 2008) The modern development inclinations demonstrate the addition of a new work to the traditional one of higher education schools such as school training (teaching and learning) and research. And – to achieve an organic union of school training, science, and practice, to strengthen the business world through revealing ideas and ways of their realization, and by this way to strengthen also the higher school itself. Because in the modern period the economy based on science and technology, that is knowledge economy of turning into the basic development strategies of states. The role of higher schools being the main intellectual creator of science and technology increases in the society in an unusual degree. Knowledge is the highest skill! Now higher education schools build different from the previous decades development strategies and activity plan. Because all higher schools want to strengthen, the world competition of higher schools 106


increases. To attract a better, that is a talented student (from all the world!), to show being worthy to receive financial assistance from the state, to get bigger orders from the business world - each of these is a base in the activities of the higher education school. Nowadays the higher school is more dynamic, in constant transformation, tries to cooperate with the business world, variegated industrial world. Now the strength of the higher school being on the right path is in direct proportionate with its financial strength, capital and wealth. The concept of receiving by the student of education in the modern higher school has changed, widened too. In the past the student’s admittance to a higher school consisted of his having ripped off his place move to the campus, city where the said higher education is situated, having classes there (if we put aside the type of education called correspondence and raising a negative reaction in countries as ours). Now on the one hand the higher school itself moves toward places with a plenty of students, including foreign countries, can arrange its branches there, i.e. the higher school can enter the student’s residence place, goes to the student. On the other hand, an opportunity to receive education from distance (distant learning) thanks to the development of modern high technologies, and especially of Internet, the student sitting at home enters virtual classes of the higher school he wants – writes and receives a diploma. Modern high-quality schools try to get distinguished not only by its school training and scientific research, but also by beautiful arrangement of the student life, by building a smooth system of providing students non-academic support, to attract students by this way too. Certainly, the type of higher schools shortly described above, have located inside the highly developed higher education systems, are “universities in the world and of the world” (James J. Duderstadt -2008). Higher schools and competition In the modern world higher schools have to face a compulsion to endure heavy global competition. In order to live and advance, it is necessary to distinguish oneself from others, to prove being better and stronger. Education enterprises that give more qualitative education, have a bigger prestige, are compelled to make constant search, to renovate, try to widen and precise their vision of quality before a strong competition. In fact, an establishment or an individual strive for perfection, must be in constant transformation, this also means improving, changing the purpose he has set before itself/himself. The one going on this way with this purpose, advancing, his intention and target advance too, and this movement does not end, does not stop, stopping becomes equal to deviating from the purpose. Turning of competition into a leading force in the system of higher education is one of the basic reasons preventing our higher schools from development. The majority of our higher schools because of their purpose inclining to trade, the low level of management culture, and big shortcomings and difficulties characteristics of transition economy, instead of choosing a development way based on quality, having used relation wave try to be on the surface. When analyzing successes and shortcomings of the higher school, it becomes necessary to understand its type, nature rightly, not to overlook its purpose and function. It is a big mistake to break the higher school, to put into average molds (unfortunately, such an approach also exists in our country). In order to grant a bachelor degree, one higher school can deal by carrying out considered programmes. Other one can have interest in master programmes in a number of fields. The other one can bring to the foreground master and doctor programmes by attaching big importance to scientific-research. Naturally, in the latter case the higher school tries to unite education and scientific research with each other and dies not suffice with keeping, transmitting and spreading the existing, known knowledge, and gives a great importance to develop it, to produce new knowledge. The role of the higher education school in keeping the past heritage, educating tastes is undeniable. Links of the higher school with the world of business are very important. The world is globalizing, large companies, corporations can play a big role in every field, including in the development of higher schools. Companies and corporations need the service of the higher school, research it conducts, and specialists it prepares. The enumerated alongside with showing the type, category of the higher school, are also a sign on its strength. The higher school can by the highest standard boast with its students, graduates gained big success, strong scientists and teachers, library... And, finally, let us note also the label of higher schools 107


wishing to get big profit during a short time through deceiving tricks, working, as a mill grinding diplomas. Unfortunately, they too have got their clients, their students. The function and purpose of education, i.e. by growing up an educated and professional citizen, and corruption rooted in education cannot get used to each other, in fact they are in full conflict with each other. If education pursues a purpose of mobilization and unity of the society, if it intends to open an equal opportunity for everyone, corruption makes its opposite. Reform in the education system and its force The way to achieve development passes through reforms, development consists of steps constantly made forward and thought of. This concerns countries, governments, economy, policy, education, and other national systems, as well as separate establishments. Although reforms necessary on the country scale arise from the demand of the time, the achieving of a significant success depends on the political will, all related forces of the society must be set in motion. Reforms must touch not what is seen on the surface, but the features standing in the depth and in the root of the system, must be directed to change them, arrange them in a new order, put them into a new system. This work requires a sufficient enough time together with a thought of reform programme. Reforming is not a smooth road, it is a serious choice, equally with successes, making certain wrong steps is possible also. Having derived results from mistakes, making certain changes in the general plan, one must continue the way. The circles facing the danger of losing their power as a result of reforming, creating obstacles can fetter hands of reformation for a period of time. An effectively working government is an important condition for success of programmes of reforms on fight against corruption and monopoly in the society, including in education. Reformation in the education field is considered the heaviest, most difficult work in all countries. Rooted changes in this field demands innovation in people’s way of thinking, philosophy of life, in the system of values characteristic of the society, the people. Modernity in education (and in other types of the human activities) means at the same time reflecting about today and the future. The results of education and its impact on the society are big, complex, and decisive. Education moves a person closer to freedom. Higher education is the area cooked by critic mind. As a result of the radical changes in education equally with individuals’ change and development, people’s attitude to the evaluation of social – political environment changes also. If at this moment, on the one hand, the strengthening of the national identity, self-perception takes place, on the other hand, an opportunity to make a deeper influence on human values is obtained. Reforms in the education system put in the center the problem of changing and consequently strengthening the education system, education enterprises as its carriers. This is a heavier, in fact, in an incomparable degree heavy problem, than individuals’ change. The change of organizations demands a longer time and is based on the knowledge, experience, and will of the ruling person, or board. The basic goal of the education reform is to create an opportunity for people to receive education and to increase the quality of education. Quality and standards in education As it is in all fields of the human activities, in education too there are different approaches to the concept of quality. Quality is to have high standards, an exceptional feature. Standards are measure units, a system of indicators, parameters and indicators thought up to measure quality. Quality means everyone’s comprehension of his responsibility at his work, domination of labor culture in the education center, quality is an internal culture of the education center. Quality is everyone’s participation, organization of the teamwork and its result. Quality is domination of the system and methods directed at sustainable development, fulfillment of necessary works in time. On the other hand, quality can be accepted as possession by the higher education of minimum standards in all fields of its activity. The establishment meeting minimum standards in every field has, in fact, provided the lack of serious shortcomings. Quality means the absence of visible shortcomings. Quality is also a basic change of an existing form, constancy of a movement directed towards high standards, of the way going towards improvement. Quality is a process and, from this point of view, 108


is more important than quality increasing concept, quality provision or quality control. At the same time, expressions “quality regulation” and “quality management” are used much. The difference between parameters in the beginning and the end of the student’s certain schooltraining interval (one semester, one year, throughout the full bachelor or master programme), more truly, “final parameter minus starting parameter” can be estimated as “additional value” of the higher school (student). Greatness of “additional value” is an important factor indicating strength, efficiency of the higher school (as well as the student’s diligence, will, wish). Quality is closeness between the presumed and real situation, between demand and the result obtained until the present time. Higher school grows a human force and produces knowledge. Therefore the level of higher school is determined, on the one hand, by to what degree exactly and properly it works, and on the other hand, by the result of the process, i.e. its graduates’ level, the force of the granted diploma. Higher school as if appears to have installed filters on the way of turning the student into a graduate, i.e. into a specialist by examinations range and other demands in the school-training process. The strength and level of higher school are directly connected with seriousness and exactness of the range of these filters. In Azerbaijan young people and their parents still choose a higher school in many cases not because of quality, perspectives standing before them, but from the point of view of an opportunity of receiving education for free or easy learning, comfortable pass through the filters. This can be explained as a feature of the transition period and inertness of the past. Accessibility of higher education. The world and Azerbaijan To be able to enter higher education, the access to higher education for the majority of the people, i.e. giving people an opportunity to receive higher education without any obstacle, to enter a higher school is a problem making the states and societies in all places of the world busy, think. This, unfortunately, has turned into one of the most serious problems in Azerbaijan. Here as though there is a big gap between secondary education and higher education. At present according to the relative number of persons who received higher education, the Azerbaijan Republic not only lags behind the developed countries very much, but lags behind even the big majority of the former Soviet neighbors, moreover, this lagging increases year after year. The participation level of the population at the certain age group on the different stages of education is one of the most basic parameters measuring the strength of the reforms being carried out in the education field and generally demonstrating the development level of corresponding country or region. Gross enrolment rate in the higher (leading to bachelor and higher degrees) and incomplete higher (leading to prior-bachelor degree) education means the percentage made up according to the quantity of population in the certain age group (mainly embracing five years, for example, 17-21 or 18-22) of quality of students studying in the education center. The following figures from the UNESCO Statistics Institute we are going to present are mainly related to 2004. According to the economic, scientific and technological strength the group of the most advanced countries of the world – the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is also the first according to the gross enrolment in education (31 countries are included here: the United States, Canada and Mexico, Japan and Korea, Australia and New Zealand, 23 developed countries of Europe and Turkey). The gross enrolment degree in higher and incomplete higher education of this group is 71.2 per cent in average. There is a leader here: Finland – the gross enrolment degree 89.5%, Sweden – 83.7%, the United States – 82.4%, Norway – 80.5%, The Republic of Korea – 88.5%. Let us to pay attention at some great countries: France – 56, Italy – 63.1, Japan – 54, Spain – 65, the Great Britain – 60.1. According to gross enrolment degree, the Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are on the second place with 49.8% in average. In the Eastern Europe and the former Soviets the public was in possession of a wide education, science and culture net. Though in 1990-1996-s these countries being under the transition economy were facing economic and political problems, the majority of them achieved to restore, even to better their qualitative and quantitative parameters. The education and science inherent in the socialist period were a help in overcoming these problems. It is enough to cast a look at the examples (respective enrolment degree in higher education): Byelorussia – 60.5%, Estonia – 65.1, Hungary – 50.6, Latvia – 74.3, Lithuania – 73.2, Poland – 61, 109


Russia – 68.2, Ukraine – 65.5. In the significant part of the countries included in this group (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Romania,.. corresponding enrolment degree is around 40 – 50%. Who are outsiders of this group? Armenia – 26.2%, Tajikistan – 16.4%, Turkmenistan – (approximately - 21%), and on the last place Azerbaijan – 14.8%. In our country the decrease took place even by absolute too – 16390 (23%) in 1991, and 12270*14.8%) in 2004. And our population in this period increased greatly on 1 million one hundred and seventy thousand... From the dynamics point of view, these parameters increase every year in all countries – in the big part speedily, in the other part little by little. Azerbaijan decreases these parameters from year to year: in 1990 – 23.9%, in 1995 – 18%, in 2000 – 16.33%, and in 2005 – 14.8% (in 2005 – 14.7%). Azerbaijan lags behind even the regions of Latin America with average parameter 27.5%, the Middle East and the North Africa with 22.7%, the Eastern Asia and Pacific Oceania with 19.4%. We’d like to tell also that during 1999 – 2005 the European education and science ministers joining the Bologna Process undertook an obligation, having mobilized all possibilities to create possibilities for everybody to receive higher education. Consequently, the enrolment percentage in higher education has grown in 15 out of 46 European countries; unfortunately the exceptional country is Azerbaijan. How these works are going on in the five bordering neighbors of ours, naturally, raises a special interest. According to the enrolment in the higher education, in the regional competition in 1990 Russia was on the 1st, Georgia on the 2-d, Azerbaijan on the 3-d, Armenia on the 4th, Turkey on the 5th, and Iran on the 6th place. And now the situation is as follows: Russia is again the first (68.2%), Georgia has managed to defend her second (41.5%), Turkey has arisen from the 5th place to the third (29%), Armenia is again on the 4th place (26.2%), Iran (22.5%) having left the last place handed it over to Azerbaijan (14.8%). In 1999 under the public influence, the Chinese government was compelled to increase its student quantity on 48% compared to in relation to the previous year! The year of 2002 was declared the beginning of popularization of higher education in China. In comparison with 1999, in 2004 the student admittance increased on 226, 6%! (The Chronicle of Higher Education, February – 2007) In Egypt with 29% enrolment degree in higher education the necessity of increasing the number of persons with higher education in a significant degree has turned into one of cares and headaches of the public and the state. Lets also note the fact that Azerbaijan, according to his economic growth speed, is much ahead of all these countries (and other countries in total!). It is interesting to have a look at the degree of the secondary school graduates’ admittance in higher school the same year in the countries on standing different stairs according to their economic development. In this sense, Azerbaijan’s parameter too is very low. Why is our higher education not sufficiently accessible? What ways have been undertaken in the world in order for higher education become accessible? Though there are many state universities in Japan, the majority of students go to private universities. Japan managed to solve the problem of popularization of higher education mainly by means of one way (the higher education entrance degree has already passed 74%!). In Northern Korea in 1990 33.2 per cent of secondary-school graduates, and in 2004 81 per cent entered higher schools! (Nam Pyo Suh-2008). Moreover, Korea is one of countries sending most students to receive education abroad (in the 2006-2007 school year it sent 62,392 students to the United States –less than India and China only). In Singapore this entrance percentage is more than 70. In Brazil 73 percent of students receive education in private higher schools, out of 2165 higher schools 231 are state higher schools (there are 176 universities only, 86 of them are private) (Carlos H. Brito Cruz-2008). One of the factors increasing the problems of education after the secondary education is the regress of professional-trade schools and attractiveness of a big part of colleges, called “technicums” in the recent past, at present providing pre-bachelor or junior specialist degree. A network like Community College in the United States was not built foe technicum-colleges, i.e. two-stage college students have no opportunity to pass to higher school; thus, this decreases the development wish and opportunity of both the education centers providing a pre-bachelor degree, as well as of their students. In 2004 about 38% of the first-year students in the United States had gone to Community Colleges. To encourage private and 110


some state higher schools in Azerbaijan to create such kind of two-year colleges could help solving a number of problems. In Azerbaijan the government determines how many students will be admitted on specialty every year not only to state universities, but also to private universities. The student admittance on specialties in which higher school has during many years been for many years investing and achieved their high quality, can all of a sudden be forbidden (?!). Let us note that the sharply decreased admittance in our country is not even fulfilled and thousands (!) applicants having achieved higher results are left out, and thousands applicants who have gained lower results are admitted to a higher school.; the reason for this is an extreme centralization of admittance lists. What is the reason of an obvious lagging created in our country in the issue of the accessibility of higher education? 1. May be, the number of higher schools is little or the potential to support students to study is weak? At present we have a lot of (34 state and 15 private) higher schools and some of them are in possession of facilities to support more students than today to study. 2. Possibly, the government decreases the student admittance because of the expenditure growth? Truly, financing of the state higher schools falls on the state mainly. However, paid admittance to the state higher schools at present constitutes more than a half of the general admittance. And on the other hand, admitting by private schools more students does not increase the state costs in any way. In full contrast, this would help the state plan its expenditures in a more effective and optimal way. 3. May be, quality, contents, and form of education in higher schools does not satisfy the government? And indeed, in Azerbaijan the quality of higher education, if we say in general, is not high. Unfortunately, in the evaluation of the student’s knowledge bribe and “order” being the first enemy of education still plays its role on the stage. Nearly all students entering a higher school become a graduate at the exact time, both studying weakly, and not studying at all, attending lessons or not attending... However, there are also our higher schools that have gained authority in the country free from corruption and far from the country borders, exemplary by content and form. And the decreasing by the state of namely their student admittance plans is one of the biggest paradoxes of our present day. According to the world education experience, the state addresses to the higher schools giving qualitative education, saying “admit more students”. It helps them for this work, for example, by paying education fee for one part of students, giving very privileged debts to others, by giving the higher school a big territory as a present to enable it to build a student campus... 4. May be, the examination participants’ results are low and a less number of student admittance is necessary for raising the education quality? Although this thought have seen reasonable at first glance, it is not correct. First, the examination conducted only once a year and during several hours, is not satisfactory for full measuring of knowledge, skills and motivation. Second, in the principles of forwarding of candidates to studentship to higher schools, as we have noted above, there are mistakes (beginning from this year, certain changes are expected to be made). As an example, according to the admittance results for 2006, “if we pay attention to number of those who received “good and excellent” marks: 29.859 - this evaluation and figure belong to the State Commission on Student Admittance. If to say otherwise, it would have been possible to admit “fearlessly” 29.859 students to our higher school, but the admitted, as we have shown above, were 22.479 and that was not fulfilled in full. Certainly, the governmental functionaries not confuse the case purposely, knowingly, the state cannot have such interest. Given that the securing at a certain level stabilization of the situation in the country, the function to ensure the smooth flow of events falls on namely our government, its acting a little bit conservatively in a number of issues is natural too (if a person standing aloof criticizing the government will come to power, he has to abandon at least a part of his revolutionary ideas, understands the must of working through consultations, agreements, compromises). With the increase of the number of our higher schools providing clean, qualitative education, in its policy of the accessibility of higher education the government will do more work. Certainly, it is necessary not sit and wait, but by helping the good, by encouraging them, to forward others information “be good too, and we will help you too”. The governments have a method passed testing well in the policy of struggle with corruption – to protect, cherish, and work for the development of “islands not for sale”. The world experience is so also, the good of the work demands it. Higher education is not for young people only. The lasting unceasing development of separate persons, establishments, and the society on the whole is throughout the life based on education and training. The average life expectation is increasing in the countries with a high living standard and the 111


special weight of elderly people is growing. The number of people wishing to change their trade, to learn something new increases at the cost of elderly people. This makes the life-long education concept stronger, demands accessibility of higher education for every person at every age. The State Education Reforms Programme embrace in itself also solving of the fundamental problem as accessibility of higher education! By whom and how is quality measured in higher education? The basic purpose of the education reform is to prepare a serious education concept and to make education more qualitative by implementing it. And in the countries under the transition economy and having gained new state independence, the education is re-worked up in a whole, reform and re-building in education is widely discussed. At this moment thoughts become forked and the government usually keeps the situation under its control not from the strategic point of view, but by tactic steps. Who measure quality in the higher school and why do they measure it? Three candidates who wish to undertake this function are before the eyes: the education unit itself, the government and also independent and competent accrediting agencies. I haven’t heard about those who deal with internal evaluation on a serious programme of higher schools in Azerbaijan. Periodically, carrying out of internal evaluations and official announcing of results by means of paper and electronic sources also with students’ active participation at Khazar University is well known (it is, naturally, very little for the country). After the education centers makes own evaluation, carrying out by fully competent accrediting establishments of an external evaluation is most frequently met and most expedient case in the practice. The establishment making accreditation alongside with giving its professional opinion about the situation in the higher school must also give recommendations about ways of conducting quality. The rich experience of America that is the motherland of accreditation, shows that there is no need for the direct participation of the state in accreditation, the intervention of the state can harm only, to create monopoly in the field of quality measuring is the worst solution of the problem. Being a qualitymeasuring agent, accreditation commissions usually act in the world. In the countries that are in the transition period these commissions often change their subordination, always new commissions are created, along with their objectives and functions not being fully clear, decisions they take are not longlived either. These accreditation commissions are not in a position as in the developed countries as a result of the control to take natural decisions as appreciating, and if appreciated to show the ways of removing weak characteristics and to allocate a certain time in order to pass this way. As a result of accreditations not the question of financing and giving or not giving superiority in other fields, but only the question “to be or not to be?” – closure or not closure of the education center or faculties is put (during a true war when coming face to face with the enemy, he is not killed, by being told “stop, hands up!”, they try to take him prisoner). And the most unpleasant feature is an instant annihilation by this way of the field during many years developed in the higher school. “Orders from outside” and probability of corruption around accreditation characteristics of the transition period also thickens the problem. Only the joint work of independent public accreditation agencies, as well as professional associations on different scientific and trade fields, independent from the government and any other big organization, has a likelihood to yield a good result. The participation of the corresponding international organizations or foreign specialists, specialists who received education abroad and their associations also can play a positive role in these commissions. On the other hand, it is possible to use the service of the regional accreditation agencies based on the joint activities with some neighboring countries, as well as the European accreditation organizations. The Bologna Process intends the creation of European accreditation agencies and also the right of any higher school acting on the European education area to address for accreditation to one of these agencies (this process – the registration of the accreditation agencies in Europe starts in April, 2008!). The creation of an education unit and its licensing i.e. to deal with education, a state-related organization such as the state Milli Mejlis, the Ministry of Education, or the Education Commission under the Azerbaijan President can give a valid only once permission. The main result of the accreditation being on no one side showing ways of measuring quality and its increasing must basically be determination of the state assistance to the higher school, including 112


financial assistance policy. Whether there will be or will not be a direct financing for the state higher schools from the state budget, and in case if there will be, its category (high, average, low, etc.) may be determined. And in the status of a private higher school, its gaining a right to receive credit and debt with a big privilege, as well as to request the state for the payment of education fee of students of the said higher school or to get from the state debt on very big privileges must be the main purpose of a successful accreditation. Certainly, both state, and private higher schools may receive also other assistances in other form as a result of the successful accreditation. If the accreditation finds out shortcomings of that or other programmes (specialty fields), the higher school will not be able to demand anything from the state for the development of that programme, nether the corresponding students will for education payment. The accreditation of the state higher schools carried out by the government (for example, the Ministry of Education) bears a very formal character, if truly, no serious accreditation is carried out. Practically, the state, first of all, must work for expediency and effectiveness of the budget allocations, and determine it by means of the accreditation. The prestige of a higher school is a very sensitive and complex problem. The public opinion forms an average idea and image about the higher school, at that moment a number of strong and weak sides of the higher school may remain in the shadow of the general average image. The experience of the group of inspectors, their comprehensive knowledge of the field, and indifference to external influence diminish possible future subjectivity in the evaluation. Who and what ensure quality in the higher school? Surely, on the one hand, learners and teachers. Another important feature is the condition and environment where learners and teachers act, that is a moral environment, management and material-technical sources in the higher school. And, finally, ideas and programmes which are in the base of the school-training, i.e. a modern and dynamic education model, programmes and school-traning plans are very important. Concrete parameters (indicators, standards) that can measure the level of the higher school are directed at measuring both the student admittance to the higher school, i.e. the starting conditions, as well as education process, also the result, product of the education. Three factors consisting of the entrance, the way (or the process), and the exit, must be examined all together in the quality analysis. Depending on the purposes set forth, the time allocated to the evaluation, and the factors, standards may be wider or specially appointed. They are aimed to measuring in a whole or in selected fields the strength, perfection of the higher school. Today & tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-N5.-P.4-19.

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Organization of free economic zones in Azerbaijan: substantiation and specialization of territorial selection Chingiz Ismaylov Chairman of the Center for Regional Economic Development in Azerbaijan, Professor At present more than 4 thousand free economic zones are operational in 120 countries of the world. More than 5 million people are involved in work and more than 500 billion dollars have been invested in these zones. Last years there is a striking interest to the creation of Free Economic Zones (FEZONES) in Azerbaijan. While the discussions concerning zones were limited to the narrow framework in the first part of the 1990s, in the next period the proposals on this theme found their reflection in the press. The formation of market relations and the growth of possibilities of allocation of foreign investments naturally have raised importance of FEZONES creation. However, for a while there can’t be any talk about a considered and consistently implemented regional development policy concerning this problem in our republic. As an example, it is worth noting that only during the last two months the leadership of the Ministry of Economic Development made different contradictory statements on the problem related to FEZONES (Selection of different places for FEZONES, interruption of discussions of the problem in general). To our mind, one of the reasons of the current situation is that there are no considerations about the concept of FEZONES in the republic. First of all, the purpose of creating every FEZONE must be defined in the concept to be worked up. As it is known, the main purpose in creation of FEZONES is attraction of investments, new jobs, development of the advantages giving by the geographic location and transportation potential, stimulating progress of far-located and backward regions. Every FEZONE, separately, has some unique, transportgeographic, economic potential and specialized human resources. The state, naturally, must set different purposes in their creation. It is clear that taking into account the international experience will make it possible to create a possibility for more successful achievements of the set goal. Experience of foreign countries The World Free Trade Economic Association created by the UNO in 1978, acquaints every year at its annual assembly interested parties with positive experience of FEZONES active in different countries. The different level of development, economic and financial conditions of countries demand different goals in creation of FEZONES. In most cases, the main goal in creation of FEZONES in the developed countries is to remove inequality in the regional development of the countries, while in the developing countries it is mainly the attraction of foreign investments in the country. In order to benefit from the foreign experience, the countries with social-economic situation and geographical position similar to our country must be taken as cases. Unfortunately, the experience of the United Arab Emirates, Dubai is considered as an example. For comparison: 126 mln. tons of oil and 46 bln. m3 of natural gas are produced annually in this country with the population of 3,4 million. GDP is 26 thousand USD per capita. In our opinion, learning the unsuccessful experience of the proposal on the creation of FEZONES in the countries of Maghreb (covering the Mediterranean Sea) countries of the European Union would be more useful. In spite of the EU declaration on its readiness to allocate 10 bln dollars for this project, four out of 10 Maghreb countries have supported the treaty signed in 1995. The economic situation of one of these countries Algeria depends mainly on oil income, other fields developed weakly. The experience of many countries (China, Poland, Philippines, Turkey, Iran, Russia, etc.) shows that in choosing the place the main priority is given to the ports having an outlet to the sea and border regions. Azerbaijan’s outlet to the closed Caspian Sea may be considered relatively advantageous. Georgia’s chances in the Black Sea are considered more advantageous in comparison with this and for this reason the “Dubai Port World” company is planning to allocate the investment worth of 700 million USD in the FEZONE to be created next to Poti (Georgia). In the creation of FEZONES in borderline regions attention should be paid to the neighboring countries’ policy in this field. For instance, Iran has created FEZONES in the border regions – “Araz” in 114


Julfa, in Astara and in Badar-Anzali. It is worth mentioning that the state and private sectors of Armenia are launching some activities in the “Araz” FEZONE. The State Duma rejected the proposal made already in 1996 related to the establishment of FEZONE in Russia on the territory of Dagestan. Russia’s such position may be explained by threats of separatism. Nowadays only two FEZONES operate in Russia: the farthest western and eastern territories of Kaliningrad and Magadan. In Turkey FEZONES were arranged in the western part being the country’s coast. Such step while stimulating the development of these regions, from the point of view of the country’s social-economic development in whole has caused differences between western and eastern regions. The FEZONES being created on the Caspian costal territories (Laqan port of Kalmykia in Russia, Aktau port - in Kazakhstan, Bandar-Anzali port – in Iran) have remained without results so far. The world experience related to FEZONES show that implementation of the policy targeted at creation and gradual development of such zones will determine efficiency of their activities. At the same time in case of the absence of the state support FEZONES cannot develop by themselves. Namely because the comprehensively considered policy pursued by countries in this sphere will enable the achievement of the set goals. The creation and successful activities of FEZONES depend on the following factors: - Advantageous geographical location for the efficiency of foreign economic relations; - Existence of a regional export potential; - Natural resources potential; - Development level of transportation net; -Working experience in accordance with the international level; - Acceptable basis of human resources, especially availability of specialized professionals - Suitable social, economic, and geo-political situation in the region. The present situation related to the creation of FEZONES in Azerbaijan Depending on choosing of the place separated for FEZONES the continuous duration of the given tax privileges must be clarified. In most cases this duration hovered between 10-20 years. The creation of FEZONES In Azerbaijan can basically become one of the means to remove misbalance in the social-economic development from the point of view of the country’s territory. In this connection, the most important problem is a reasonable choice of the territories. From the scientific view, a correct choice of the place creates the base of the future success. Otherwise, the idea on the creation of FEZONES can fail (as an example, we can show the Sumgait industrial zone and Yeni Yashma FEZONE, which are still in the status of discussed projects). It is necessary to take into consideration that the dependence on the central governmental structures, lessens from the management point and possibilities of economic independence in FEZONES. Consequently, on the territories with probability of creation of separatism the organization of such zones and to what dangers they might lead must be taken into consideration. In the Azerbaijani condition choice of the place that will be allotted for FEZONES must be analyzed on several levels. The first level – selection of the place must come forth from the country’s regional development strategy. Unfortunately, until now there can be no talk about a comprehensively considered regional development policy. The very superficially composed “State Program on Development of Regions” has not so far created a possibility in satisfactorily big volume of available human resources of the regions. For this reason, in the regions the social-economic development has not reached the desired level. If in the districts taken separately putting any enterprise to work and or the hand over of a social object create a seemingly revived picture, its important problems are still waiting for their solution. It is clear that the regional development policy of our country must be formed in accordance with the situation and change of our relations with the neighbor-countries. On account of this, must be analyzed on the basis of “self-gravitating” features of the border districts - on the second level. Azerbaijan has shore outlets directly to Iran, Russia, and Georgia, and from the territory of Nakhchivan to Turkey. Our frontier districts in the state of war (there is a ceasefire regime in force) with Armenia and remain under occupation. Because of distinction of the geographical condition, natural resources and human potential of the border districts in the north, west, and south directions and difference in our relations with the neighboring states, priority for FEZONE territories must be determined. The creation of FEZONES in 115


the border districts will cause the integration of the country’s economy in the world economy and strengthen its international economiic relations. The third level – advantageous possibilities for placing FEZONE of the region (natural-climatic conditions, the geographical position, resources potential, the developed transport infrastructure, human resources, the material-technical base, etc.). For example, choosing Sumgait city for a FEZONE due to the proposal made namely on the basis of such approach, was a contradictory step to the strategic regional development of the republic. After the creation of the FEZONE during the last 5-10 years the territorial and field distribution of the foreign investments put in the country must be analyzed. On this basis, from the point of allocation of investments of economy fields and districts it is possible to create an impression about attractive distinctions. Thus, two basic factors must be taken into consideration in advantageous choosing for FEZONE: 1) Conformity with the regional development strategy of the country 2) Probability of foreign investors’ interest to this territory Taking into consideration the above said, technical-economic proof of the creation of the FEZONE must be carried out. The technical-economic substantiation that will be composed, must consist of the following divisions: - The basic purpose of the creation of the FEZONE; - Estimation of the basic factors for creation of the FEZONE; - Estimation of the chosen territory for establishment of the FEZONE (what is the reason for choosing namely this territory); - Development program of the FEZONE; - Financial infrastructure and technical possibilities; - Activities targeted at arrangement of management system on the territory; - Estimation and prospective development of the FEZONE activities. In conformity with the world practice FEZONES are divided into different types. The more spread FEZONE types are the following: - Special economic zones; - Special trade zones; - Industrial zones; - Recreation-tourism zones; - Information technologies parks; - Finance-banking zones. In other mentioned fields the selection of territories into specialized FEZONES is made in accordance with different requirements. Therefore the specialization of FRZONE that will be created in our republic must be determined from now. The importance of this problem for FRZONE comes forth from the Law. The Law on FEZONE must clarify legal and economic bases of its creation and activities. At the same time it is worth getting acquainted with achievements made in this field by the neighbor countries in adopting the Law on FEZONES. For example, the Law on FEZONES was adopted in Turkey in 1985, in Iran and in Turkmenistan – in 1993, in Russia – in 2005. Such Law has not been yet adopted in the other neighboring countries. Thus, FEZONES can carry out activities on the basis of the President’s decree. Proposals on the creation of FEZONES Consideration of probability of any risks in connection with the activities of FEZONES is demanded in the regional development strategy of the country. The feasible risks are as following: − Formal registration of monopolistic enterprises in FEZONE in order to escape taxes; − Decreasing budget incomes that will be gained as a result of economic-trade relations; − Deepening of inequality created in the development of regions (if FEZONE has been created in the east of the republic) ; − Growth of the territory’s possibilities in becoming economically independent decrease dependence from the center and can initiate rise of separatist moods; − Failure of the project as a result of incompetence of the local authorities. With the purpose of lessening the probability of rising of these or other risks the state must work out a relevant regulating mechanism. 116


Taking into consideration the above-mentioned, we think that the following territories can be considered priority as an initial variant in the problem of the creation of FEZONE on the republican territory: 1) „A special trade zone“ in the border region known by the name „Gyrmyzy Korpu“ (Red Bridge); 2) “A special trade zone“ in the border territory of Sadarak district; 3) “A special tourism zone“ on Narguin and Pirallahy islands. The consideration of establishment of FEZONES on these territories can be expedient. The chosen special economic zones must not be territorially compact and very large from the management point of view. Only in this case, on the indicated territories development will take place, the economic relations of the country will extend, and at the same time the significance of Azerbaijan in the region will further increase. Today & Tomorrow.Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№ 3(10) March.-P.63-66.

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Notes on development of the Azerbaijani musical culture A.Taghiyev , Doctor of Philosophy, K.Gassymova, researcher Culture is a social-cultural phenomenon and it is linked to thinking. And the musical thinking is its component and, so, belongs to the philosophy of culture. Philosophical problems of culture, as well as of music play an important role in the culture of people. At least we claim that music impacts on people’s cultural-moral level. It is also obvious that possessing deep musical perception demands a high culturalmoral level of a person. Music influences the unseen, national-moral values, and national consciousness. The philosophy of culture is a system of rich values of people’s historically formed, given to it in genetic codes and reached a certain level of mentality. As a high form of sense and mind, the philosophy of culture is determined by the development level of thinking. The person’s real practical activities cause the creation and development of new creativity forms in him. Having become an indicator of people’s moralpolitical abilities, it shows in itself how it is. As the form of public consciousness music has always played an important role in people’s life. From the ancient world in Azerbaijan there have been different musical parties and in these parties music, and its performers, as well as musical instruments were improved and tested. Nietzsche sets forward a concept about the origin of culture from Dionis and Apollo. According to his theory, the beginning of culture in the person’s life is related to its link with Dionis culture with music in its stem. The Gobustan rock carvings on Absheron peninsula of Azerbaijan also prove this. Here a picture of different dances is the first people’s sign, though in primitive form, of informing about their attitude to music. In the Islamic world peripatetic views start with Al Farabi. The distinguished philosopher also invented the note, played ud (the oriental musical instrument), even lulled to sleep the people attending the party at the Damascus ruler Seifatuddovle’s. In Ancient and Middle Ages the Azerbaijani thinkers attached a great importance to music. Some circles not understanding antique music struggled against it, supposed that music led to atheism, godlessness, immorality and named those who were engaged in it mutrub (dancing boy in woman’s dress). For example, the reason for banishing Mesheti Ganjevi from Ganja city was her inclination to music and joyful parties. Or S.A. Shirvani’s inclination to music became a reason for clergymen to raise the clique against him. In Middle Ages and afterwards music was constantly used at poetry parties. Sometimes poems accompanied by music were created. In is impossible to find such a person in the world who would not have been influenced by music in this or other degree. It is no accident that the ancient Sparta’s ruler Ageslay addressing his friends said so: “Defend your women from music, it is more dangerous than alcohol”. Ageslay knew very well that the influence degree of music on the person depends on his music perception. And this perception is relatively higher in women, than in men. In the ancient Greece singing and dancing girls were called “getera” and they were, naturally, considered the people of the lower layer. Even once Philip sighing at the performance of one famous musician and expressing his wish that he “could play as he”, the musician said in confusion: “what are you talking about, my lord, God forbid that you could play harp as I can”. (That is, it could have lowered the Sovereign’s dignity). Speaking about the influence of Iranian music Saadi Hafiz wrote that three things saved Iran from Turkic influence: the Persian language, the Persian music, and the Persian maid holding wine in her hands: we want to say that in a number of cases even in the elitist societies music succeeded to get its real mark at the necessary level. Having acknowledged it a trade of the low layer, it was looked upon from above. Placing the musician‘s band in the low part of the party In a number of parties also shows their closeness to the people and mass. And at the wedding parties where the bridegroom and the bride do not sit together, musicians are, as a rule, placed in the most honorable place – at the upper head. If any musician was invited to elitist parties, he was by all means invited either to sing, or to play. Once Tchaikovsky was invited to such a party and having supposing to have been invited as guest, he did not fetch his violin together with him. Seeing this, the host demonstrated his indifferent attitude to him saying: “And where is your violin?” All this shows that when we sometimes speak about music and musicians, we have tried to see only good features in the attitude towards them, and tried to cover its negative features. The fact that many musicians are not in their places either caused the falling of their 118


respect among the people. But when the talk is about a true music and musician, the situation gets a different shape; it becomes obvious that music has got a divine essence. Also the turning by a number of show-business amateurs of music into a means of light entertainment is one of blows stricken at music. In fact, the cognition of this music hides the philosophical essence of music. Because music is a means of understanding, it is not at all a means of playing and merry companies, as some think. Culture is a system of restrictions as well. Once any innovation of postmodernist amateurs was prevented resolutely. But now they are dominating. This is their principle: “I know everything best of all”. Thus, different TV channels not reconciling with anything regardless of anything let any singer appear on the screen. Here the main role is played more by his sponsor’s kindness than by his talent. There was time when musicians and musical instruments like music itself were turned into victims of the repression. For example, saying “tar (the oriental musical instrument), don’t sing for the proletarian does not like you”, apologists and ultra Bolsheviks hurried to bury the tar, the kamancha (the oriental instrument)., the saz (the oriental musical instrument). However, these instruments having since long been flattering the people’s spirit, were not merely buried, in contrary, new symphonies and operas were sounded in their language. Another problem is a mutual influence of national cultures and music as well as mutual enrichment. In this sense in the Soviet period the impact of one culture on the other was a good case. It’s true the Soviets pursued the policy of separating Islamic-Turkic peoples from each other. They were being rooted on the basis of the Russian language and culture, did not create connections with each other. Contacts with our believers and compatriots living in the neighboring countries were restricted. In separate cases culture and music figures went abroad under the supervision and in a certain framework. In the Soviet period music was considered in terms of ideology. Especially when a program was prepared at official ceremonies and parties, themes on the party and the Soviets, internationalism and the friendship of peoples used to occupy the basic place. The national spirit was destroyed by every means, hatred to nationalism was created. And one of problems of the Azerbaijani music became its appropriation and falsification by neighboring peoples, especially by Armenians. Given that different peoples have during many years been settling in the Caucasus, this region, distinguished by its inherent originality has been the region of willingly or not willingly now joining of these peoples’ cultures, then splitting, now falling into symbiosis situation. Here West and East meet, unite, separate and intersect. All this finds its reflection in cultures and, so, in music. Therefore the peoples often consider music, a song, or a musical instrument not belonging to them as their own. For example, Armenians having falsely counted “Sari gelin” and the kamancha their own, carry out a serious struggle for them. Therefore this demands from music figures hard work and agitation actions. Besides Armenians, there are other neighbors wishing to declare composers - U. Hajibeyov, M. Magomayev and our other famous names in art their own. That is why we must be always ready to struggle against such kind of cases. So, the attitude to music has not always been simple at all, there have always been people struggling against it and they have also tried to estrange this fascinating force being “provisions” of the spirit from the human life, in a certain way to launch “cleansing” of the person’s moral world. Such reactionary forces have made efforts to fill in the morality cleaned from music with mystics, to kill in people the champion mood. As our world, in the person’s life music has called him to be optimistic, to struggle constantly. Before fighting and during fighting battle motives have always been a means calling people for struggling. Y. Chamanzamanli, H. Zardabi, U. Hajibayov, J. Garyaqdy, Khan Shushinski, Bul-bul and other educators emphasized the necessity to form our national music on the basis of popular music. For example, Y. Chamanzamanli noted in his letters written from Kiev that we must by all means develop our music reflecting our national spirit, create our national hymn. It was he and H. Zardabi who gave U. Hajibayov the idea to compose an opera. Due to this reason the educators thought it necessary to develop in people an inclination to music. Both the khananda (folk singer), and the singer (the meaning of the two is similar – a performer, the first is in Persian, the second in Arabic) live a sort of their second life at the performance, according to Z. Freud’s concept, they are in trance. Suddenly, you can see, having pressed the tar or the kamancha to his breast, with half-closed eyes, the performer forgets himself, swing his head in gentle harmony depending on music rhythm. All this shows that music is a very important component of the human life, his origin, evolution, and historical development stages. A human being was born with music, grew up with it, and also today is living under its influence. In his time the deceased Azerbaijani philosopher Asef Afandiyev estimated 119


mougam (the Azerbaijani folk music) as a transition from sadness to revolt. That was a genius mark given to mougam. We would add that the transition from mougam to tasnif is similar to shift from winter to spring. As a total of sadness and grief, when passing to tasnif, the mougam already turns into a weddingparty-holiday. Mougam is the old East’s groan, sadness, grief, a revolt it rises against itself. It is such a revolt that results not in revolution, blood, ailment, but in the spiritual tranquility. The person is relieved, calms down and returns to himself. It is a very good case that the attention to this musical genre has during recent years improved greatly in the republic. With the Republic’s first lady Mrs. Mehriban Aliyeva’s direct patronage and assistance mougam festivals are conducted and talents are found out. Though we are not musicians, as citizens we can’t stay indifferent to the future destiny of music in the republic. We are concerned about some distortions taking place in the sphere of our national music and its drift from the original sources. We do believe the time to make serious considerations on this has come. Today & Tomorrow.Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№ 3(10) March.-P.67-70.

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Azerbaijani way of modernization Ilham Mamed-zade, Doctor of philosophy This year in Azerbaijan for quite clear reasons is an occasion to bring interim results, to reflect on where we go, what is determining for us in policy, economy and morals. Under the president I. Aliyev rates of economic growth have become impressive. Just recently Azerbaijan achieved the unprecedented growth of around 40%, and this year it is going to be about- 24%, though high rates of growth are typical for many countries under transformation. In the same Armenia and Georgia not having oil and gas, the growth rates are around 10-12%. It is possible to assume that up to 2013 the rate of growth will be high enough. But quality, efficiency and productivity of everything connected to labor leave much to be desired. There are many problems of social and spiritual meaning. Therefore today of the country is filled with conflicts (more often latent or backstage), which are quite often splashed out, between the past and the future, tradition and modernity, aspiration to religious eagerness and strive for a dissolute life. It is recollected as in one known Soviet comedy an actor says: “… Istanbul – is a city of contrasts”. Now we have to say that we live in the country and the city of contrasts. It is clear that we must understand the reasons of contrasts and to specify ways of their overcoming or smoothing. In this matter a discussion concerning the strategy, variants and models of modernization can play their positive role. Let’s admit that many experts offer their variants of modernization from above and there is a hint on the discussion. However, in my opinion, the main thing here is discussion that would initiated civil proposals from people, established proper rules of conduct, both for masses, and elites, bureaucracy, the so-called political ethics. Now, in my opinion, it is clear to all that democracy assumes the change of character of deep social and moral connections, instead of a simple introduction of the market and a new system of authority, a political superstructure with an opposition, a multi-party system, etc. There is no democracy without enlightenment. The experience, for example, of some Asian countries has already shown that absence of choice or rigid elective democracies without institutes of the civil society and civil culture, respect of citizens’ rights and freedoms generate the same tyrannies, as well as any dictatorship. That is why ideological knowledge specific to every country are necessary in order to select adequately with their help all other institutes, rules which would allow the society to function. About paradoxes of the public thought Collectives of authors prepare ideologies and projects of modernization, much in the project depends on scientists, on their ability and skill to highlight key points in today's life, to see the main and the minor, purposes and tasks, challenges, etc. Some of the post-Soviet authors think that the time of ideologies has passed. Others believe that the time of ideological mega-projects is over. Perhaps, for some it has passed really, but not for those who is still catching up. In Russia, living the similar period, “Putin’s plan” and the concept of sovereign democracy have recently been prepared; there is something similar in Kazakhstan also. It must be recognized that there is an essential difference between projects in the Eastern Europe such as the Baltserovich’s Plan” and the Putin's plan. However, it is clear that economic success, some rise in living standard, the so-called stability, can be crossed out on the post-Soviet space very quickly if the following to the certain synthesis, necessarily jointly coordinated by the authority and the professional community will not be guaranteed, of civil and moral values which will provide not only the order, continuity, but also an evolutionary development. Ideologies are available and prepared in the West. Let’s recollect, at least, F. Fukuyama, S. Huntington's articles and books, sensational in their time, discussions on their occasion, etc. They answered the ideological order of the society, which had appeared in perplexity what would be tomorrow after the crash of Marxism, the Soviet Union, etc. This question was the most important for them, as they for a long time know what to do in daily life, how to choose values and purposes, how to follow them, etc. The matter is that in the West scientists, religious persons, mass media, organizations of the civil society, independent of the government, everyone who takes part in the discussion of sore problems of the society are engaged in ideology of the society. The division of ideology and authority there creates an 121


opportunity of a flexible reaction, the evolutionary development of the state, without violence and revolutions. And now I would like to say a little about what prevents our scientists, to prepare something in this area and put forward initiatives. First of all, many, including scientists and intelligentsia expect that the authorities will resolve their problems, though much depends on them, on their enterprise, skills, etc. They are careful about taking risks have to do with talk about the current state of affairs that is why they speak about the past. They need some ideological sign, indicating what is better to do today, what norms and standards of behavior are preferable. We have got such indications, but they if show the purposes of development, do not show means for the achievement of the purposes, legal means to which the citizen can resort to become successful in the society. It is necessary to mean that perceptions, fears and errors of scientists, professors will be repeated in the rising generation and will determine difficulties, complexes of the country’s tomorrow. We shall note some paradoxical theses of our social scientists, which become or even have already become standard. First, they, on the one hand, are declined to that a pledge of Azerbaijan’s successful development is the restoration of the true history, certain brotherhood bonds and the historical norms ostensibly peculiar to our ethnos, curved by long years of the colonization, the empire, and, on the other hand, the reason of failures and problems also explained by mentality, archetypes, etc. Second, explaining the character of the country’s development, its history, the quality of the people, the nation, elites, researchers have stepped aloof the analysis of real processes, continuity of problems and contradictions causing the present development. The idea of scientists reveals persons that is important and instructive, declares the will of people, the certain supreme essences, but it is catastrophically insufficient. It is necessary to analyze the collision of interests of concrete groups and classes and to reveal perspective interests and tendencies. Third, the belief, Islam is important for every Moslem, but for the scientist they should not substitute the reality of political-economical or moral processes in the person, in the country and in the world, moreover at the analysis the belief only hides, but does not cancel collisions of interests, perceptions, etc. Let’s pay attention in this context that scientists, as a rule, think exclusively within the frames of “East-West”, “Islam and Christianity”, while there are essences and concepts of the smaller scale. Fourth, a big part of researchers divided, directly or indirectly, the country on elite and people, as if there were not smaller, but not less important groups of “performers”. Interests of professional groups of the society, classes, for example, are not considered at all. Muffled conviction in the spirit of the Soviet times in the unity of interests of all Azerbaijanis from bigwigs of business and the monopolists, advanced “white collars” up to state employees, not speaking about the army of semiliterate builders and farmers. Someone is constrained with the fear, putting it mildly, to lose privileges, someone is embarrassed with a century-long passivity, but how far it is possible to trust such unity, how far it can help to sustain uneasy challenges of the modernity. During the Soviet times, except for fear, “the egalitarian justice”, principles and norms of the morals, the corresponding ideology fixed the unity, and now it turns out to be a “detonating mixture”. It is similarly spoken about an external world, it is divided into those who help and prevent, for example, regarding the conflict, as if the external world has no other interests and aims. Quite often we dream that oil, investments will lead to better life. Facing today’s difficulties, many, but, unfortunately not all, start to understand that in order to change something tomorrow, today it is necessary to think, operate and overcome. The scientist, for example, must rethink paradoxes. How to rethink them? To plan the ways of overcoming paradoxes, to estimate the logic of the development of our society, it is necessary to concentrate on XX century, analyzing real facts only, comparing the tendencies with the processes occurring in the world during this period, and estimating not the rhetoric of political forces, authorities, persons, and social realities, tendencies and interests. Let us note that the today’s youth is quite often better informed about ancient Turks and Scythians, the surahs of the Koran, than about the Soviet times. Disputes and discussions on real facts when knowledge is checked also by life experience, are capable to give the science and not only it some effectiveness and activity. If to look at XX century we can see the following noteworthy circumstances (they are, certainly, more, but we shall name some only). We shall start with the revolution of 1917 though it is difficult to outline its time borders. But one cannot help noticing that it has given Azerbaijan, except for the reprisals, the first and the second (Soviet) republic. It means that it created a real opportunity of destruction of class institutes and barriers, it destroyed sincere conviction of the elites, including also the Azerbaijani, that the 122


power is from the God, and the same humility from him of the lowest layers and the destitute, it asserted equality of people and sexes, the priority of education and many other things. That revolution destroyed class barriers, established labor ethics, destroyed privileges and idleness. By the way, and in this plan differed in nothing from other European revolutions. Other point is that on a number of serious reasons it destroyed them not up to the end. But where are scientific investigations analyzing the reasons of unfinished revolutionary work? It is surprising that beginning 1991 in the public consciousness appears the same perceptions about haves and have-nots. Some suppose that freedom and property are necessary not for free and effective work, but again for idleness, fun. It is natural that labor again appears the destiny of losers, again everyone hope for the divine will. Certainly, nobody wants the egalitarian justice, certainly, an economic inequality, enterprise and the capital promote the development, but without a measure and restrictions of an inequality, respect for effective work, human rights and social justice there is a precipice between citizens of one state, rage and envy grows. And they do not give acceleration to the development; they are socially destructive. Then again only in XX century it became clear that only open, market and democratic states develop stably. Today no quite democratic state can feel itself easy, all of them are connected to the prices for raw material, do not act as exporters of highly technological goods and technologies. Proceeding from this, one should estimate more realistically potential and borders of modernization from above, any liberal economic models, involving in changes or processes of reforming increasingly wider groups of masses. Probably, the ideology of this affair is necessary also, it can be called national or Azerbaijani way of modernization, but the point is not in the name. XX century showed first of all a failure of all samples of ideologically programmed, mobilized development, and after that a failure of liberal projects on the post-Soviet space. Therefore the ideology of our modernization should try to return in words and in practice to the society respect to work, equality and freedom, its basis must be constituted by the cultural and moral education of the country’s citizens. Culture and morals must be assigned neither to ministries and corporations, nor mosques. I have no wish to speak about the ministries, but as for mosques, they will never bring up a true patriot of a citizen of our country. A Moslem, as they say, is always pulled to Mecca. Speaking about the necessity of our present Azerbaijani modernization, it is necessary to pay attention to the Soviet modernization. Despite the known totality in its implementation in Azerbaijan, illiteracy was liquidated, the national elite, not only communistic, but also professional was created. Azerbaijan’s oilmen, scientists are among them. The representatives of culture and art, created brilliant works. Besides, during the years of modernization in the Soviet Azerbaijan there was created a serious industry and agriculture with outstanding results. Let’s recollect also that the already growing decrepit Soviet system praised the person, laid his cares in the basis of its ideology. But I’d not like to speak about it in detail. On this theme, it is still possible to read books, articles issued at that time. Rates of today's growth impress, but in fact they testify to from what level we have started, what have had and lost for the last years. Anyway, it’s clear that in 70-80s of XX century our Azerbaijan was ready to transition to the normal market, instead of the African or Central Asian crude resources model of the market. Thus, there is a need for the ideology, model of modernization. There is much written about it, but “leftovers” of Soviet ideology is still kept, that is why many run away even from the word “ideology”. The worst features of the Soviet ideology were the break between words and deeds, a total dictatorship and demagogy. If we recognize this, let's avoid them. Besides, in the epoch of information communications a total dictatorship is impossible, but to limit the wildness, impudence and spiritual impoverishment of the solvent or poor Azerbaijanis, the officials of the average level or the rich men with the help of standards of behavior would be completely not bad. A new core, a new challenge of time should be laid in the basis of our modernization, and it should be linked to the Azerbaijani, the creation for him of suitable conditions for work, life, etc. In other words, the contemporary modernization should assume investments in the person, and the ideology to convince and bring up in him a reciprocal desire for opening of namely his positive opportunities, abilities, etc. In this term it is necessary to highly appreciate the importance of the study abroad program declared by the President of Azerbaijan. But there is a need for a platform to provide that further upon their return they would be able to apply their knowledge. Many who already come back, having received the university education abroad, sometimes, as my post-graduate students and applicants for a scientific degree can’t find a suitable job place, acceptable conditions for life and career opportunities. Some of the simply go back … 123


Today we have appeared in the interlacing of opportunities, but also of threats. The high oil and gas prices have gifted a starting capital for a new development. New roads, transport communications and clean, new buildings are worth to speak about, but they are not enough, as they do not rescue from a possible collapse of the economy based on raw materials. A fundamental reorganization of the entire newly created economy is necessary. It is already preventing, first of all, the economy of raw material sale with its attributes: distribution, monopolization and corruption. About innovations and economy of knowledge In our country there is already much being written that innovation, high technologies, the high technology productions are an alternative to the raw orientation in economy. But almost nothing is written how to pass to the high tech economy from the raw economy, that economy of knowledge pulls down the raw economy, while it is already necessary to reorganize what has just now been created, to what we have started to get used. At the same time we can oversee that the destiny of some serious people is tied up to this reorganization. For people with old habits, for those who prefer traditions, it would be almost impossible to tailor their life to the new situation. But it is necessary to aspire to this, as there is not enough time. Some experts speak about 5 years, others that the high prices for energy will hold on till 2020. However, there are also many pessimistic forecasts that 2008 will become the year of decrease in the developed countries that this process will reach China and the Asian markets in 2009, that in the markets of energy high prices for crude oil are close to edge. However, the matter is not that the world has already divided on those who have had time and those who have hopelessly fell behind. Some people think that the economy of knowledge assumes an orientation to the science and that we shall now tell that it is necessary to support the science, the Academy of Sciences, etc. But the core is necessity to reform our science as well. Let’s remind that the Soviet science achievements, which can be admired, remained in the past. Its weakness was that scientists made discoveries, which were not supported by the economic and technological environment, that among scientists there were many who were simply registered as scientists. And the discoveries, as well as today’s discoveries of some of our scientists will be used in other countries, corporations, etc. They pay for what makes a profit, and do not pay those who do nothing. And it means that it is necessary to create conditions for those who will carry out the breakthrough in the knowledge economy, including those who will develop the ideology of today or tomorrow's modernization, and their values should become its basis. Middle class, professionals, citizens The main problem of the transition to the economy of knowledge, the innovative economy lays outside of the field of innovations, and even economy in the sense of raw economy and management. The matter is that the majority "twists" and works between raw economy and some of its developed areas (of high technologies or finance). This sphere is suspended and there is no noteworthy attention toward it. But, namely it is the component of a real economy, allowing flourishing the countries with no resources and scientific achievements. Moreover, this sphere, its organization, relations between employers and employees influences frames of mind, dignity and morals of citizens, middle class and many other things. Therefore the basis of a new modernization should become a real economy where simple folk earn a living, but it would be desirable that they worked in a real sense of the word. It will be able to become a basis of modernization when small and average business is protected from officials, and employees are socially protected from their employers. It is possible to force ambitions, to put serious problems for breaking to Europe, to the sphere of high technologies, etc. We are not worse than Kazakhstan, aspiring to join the developed countries of the world in the near future. But it is impossible to enter the century of innovations with mid-flight step, at the command from above, the limited contingent of people. Besides, we already have these people, but we lack the innovative environment and economy of knowledge. Middle class, professionals are necessary as strata, because they create some environment, want to introduce new technologies and create economy of knowledge. But for this purpose, there is a need not only for social programs, investments in pensions and salaries, but also freedom associated with responsibility, human rights, without which the middle class is no class, and the professionals – no professionals. There is a need for democratization of the daily life, which is the only way to return dignity 124


to working people. Of course, the huge democracy, elections, a multi-party system, freedom of the press, independence of courts and parliament are important and some steps have been made in this direction, for some we’ve still been waiting. But in fact it is necessary for democracy to be presented in daily life. A citizen must be protected from arbitrariness, illegal requisitions and impudence of officials of the average level and not just on the day of elections, the youth must believe that it can achieve everything in this life through hard work. A daily life is a space where economy, morals, the social sphere and politics are tied together and if this sphere is established properly, if people can protect their rights and work at full efficiency of their forces, then the tasks of modernization and ideology will be executed, then there will be the middle class, and science, innovations, and progress. Our realities or what hinders us I’d like to write about our realities that careless officials hinder us, that the consensus between the property and the authorities, officials and businessmen is harmful, that they are quite often, say, involved in different business – schemes, that freedoms and human rights are not respected, that representatives of the law enforcement agencies derive income through creating obstacles for simple folk, etc. And then it suddenly dawned upon me: we ourselves hinder ourselves. We should change ourselves, not hoping on anybody. But the country will then have to work and wait for a long time. The circle has become locked. Everything depends on the president In the West the head of the state is just a worker - a manager employed to work, besides, on a competitive basis, having passed the procedure of elections, for a certain term. Even if he is an excellent manager, always there is someone else who can operate more effectively and better. Quite a lot of time has been spent for creation of this system comprising the interaction of the society and the authorities, people and the authorities, for establishment of the ideology of this work. Let’s recall that in the end of XVIII century the famous “Freedom, Equality, Brotherhood” was proclaimed. But there are, unfortunately, also societies where freedom is still freedom of self-will, brotherhood – nepotism, equality – a necessity to hide the earned, and sometimes the stolen too. To develop, we need a development project. The public, scientists, some of them occupy certain positions in the umbrella organizations, they put forward some theses, sketches, parts of which could underlie the nation-wide project of the development. Probably, at the today's stage it is inevitable that a project will connect political, economic and ideological authorities in the country. Certainly, we understand that the system, in which politics and ideology are combined, is not capable of a natural evolution, that it demands a steady control from the very top, monitoring of the society and the specification of ideology. But, if to be honest, we have it combined anyway and the acknowledgement of the ideological context of reforms will act, when it is sounded, as an element or a part of responsibility of the authorities before citizens. Certainly, the Soviet experience has shown that any manipulations with public consciousness are dangerous. But a direct instruction in who favor it is necessary to vote is even more dangerous as it results in decrease of political culture, leads to radicalization of youth, damages public morals. The domination in the Azerbaijani mass culture of what is referred to as “show business” does not ennoble us either. The ideology prepared as during “the old good times”, but in view of realities and challenges of the new time, having passed the discussion among the professional public of the country and “consecrated by the President”, can work quite positively. At such attention to ideological questions there will be less absurdities such as the last: cancellations of all programs in Russian on commercial TVs, attempts to close commercial Russian-speaking newspapers though every citizen of Azerbaijan is financially and spiritually interested in knowing some languages in addition to the native language, etc. It is necessary to expect that problems of coexistence of personal and collective freedom, personal and common interest will get still greater urgency in the nearest future. Today & Tomorrow.Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№ 2(09) February.-P.4-10.

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Azerbaijan: challenges of the modern world Ali Abbasov, Doctor of philosophy, professor The discussion of present problems of Azerbaijan’s development in interface to its cultural heritage allows determining probable answers of our country to challenges of the modern world. Not applying for “the truth in the last instance”, I would like to state some ideas, so to say, of the general, - the philosophical order which, in my opinion, can approach us to the interpretation of Azerbaijan’s global problems. I offer for consideration the following big blocks of problems, which as it seems, demand examination. 1. First of all, it is the basic geopolitical factor rendering crucial influence on the course of world processes as a whole and on change of political, economic and cultural scripts of the development of separate countries. We mean the globalization imperiously influencing the character of modern models of life of societies and states of the world. 2. Then it is necessary to discuss such important paradigm of the modernity, as social-cultural models of development, adhering to frameworks of processes of modernization with reference to Azerbaijan’s experience. 3. The reference in modern conditions to the social-cultural problems shows that the standard division of culture on material and spiritual not only insufficient, but also interferes with the practical realization of theoretical installations of models of interrelation of a cultural tradition and a social development. 4. Such situation demands urgently the introduction of the concept of social culture into the discussed discourse, in which this lack is eliminated partly. Namely in this foreshortening it is possible to determine which social-cultural model (in the context of the approaches of Max Weber’s “Protestant ethics” /1/) is preferable for the optimum development of the Azerbaijan society and for the activities of its individual – the bearer of the certain cultural tradition. 5. The last will demand our reference to Francis Fukuyama’s ideas (2) centered on the so-challenged “Great split”. It is important to establish, when one of variants of “Great split” started to be carried out in Azerbaijan and what is the condition of this phenomenon today. 6. Finally, we shall pay attention to the general condition of the spiritual and cultural searches united at a world outlook level by the concept of postmodernism, which has destroyed a habitual classical picture of the world, having replaced the world of objects (and subjects) by the world of sporadic challenge arising networks of mutual relations between them. As against natural processes, man constantly designs processes of a social reality (T. Lukman) and it creates uniqueness of environment in which people exist. Expecting inevitability of fair objections and valuable suggestions, I want to note that the suggested scheme is absolutely open both for criticism, and for development. Besides, consistently considering the declared themes, I shall bring to a focus more on problems demanding answers, than to recipes of their solution. Thus, the arrangement of problems assumes a subsequent discussion. *** For the last decades the world has undergone system changes generated distinct sensation that the mankind has escaped from habitual dynamics of historical time and has directed to full uncertainty. The challenges the majority of the modern countries of the world faces, are unique, they are formed under universal pressure of a new world phenomenon - process of globalization. The mankind has entered an epoch of globalization, which consequences are for the present difficult for predicting, however it is obvious that the world during the life of one generation of people has become considerably more interconnected, uniform and continues to be unified promptly; a complex, inconsistent, substantially spontaneous process of formation of universal values has started. At that, the tendency to decrease in spiritual needs of the person, in which system of values material well-being gets an increasing importance, is obviously traced. 126


The judgment of how processes of globalization operate, will influence character of cultural development of separate peoples, develops in conditions of deficiency of time given for it. Consequences of a sharp technological leap at absence of the conventional world outlooks and values cause the proved fears, as change of mentality necessary at it does not get ready with so sharp transformation of sphere of a technologies and information boom. A prompt rolling up of a cultural variety looks even more disturbing generation of globalization. Are processes of unification, radical cut of distinctions between cultures inevitable? Is it so necessary that this be preceded with dying off of variety of languages and folding of uniform language of dialogue between peoples and cultures? Will the mankind come to uniform standards of culture and what can be lost at that? These and other, not less acute problems, raise inevitably a question on ways of preservation of the vital attributes of cultures of different peoples, many of which are at times deprived of opportunities to solve this problem independently. Globalization destroys promptly various borders, erected by history and dividing peoples, but at the same time it increases threat of slow disappearance of variety of cultures and peoples. The solution of these uneasy problems is possible only in the democratic community, working pluralism of which demands to recognize the general, universal and absolute character of the rights and freedom not only of the separate person, but also of whole peoples. The world for a while is far from this ideal condition. The epoch of globalization bears in itself the greatest threat to those peoples and states, which culture is marginal and synthesizes in itself variety of cultural directions by virtue of historical reasons. Socialcultural formations developed on the conjunction of two and more civilizations, and their cultures by virtue of the heterogeneity first of all are subject to influence of processes of the globalization capable to wash away a cultural identity ultimately. Azerbaijan belongs to the number of such countries and that is why we should search for the technologies capable to stop or alter this process. Realities of globalization have touched Azerbaijan with the beginning of internationalization of the ethnic conflict and the new oil strategy that is early enough in comparison with other republics of the former USSR. At the same time the majority of problems arising before the national culture, is not at all the brood of processes of globalization, but are the result of contradictions of the historical development and the transitional period in the republic. Meanwhile already today these two, for the present parallel and rarely crossed process, are often confused and those or other consequences are wrongly attributed to opposite reasons. Undoubtedly, real and imaginary problems of the country should be analyzed within the framework of the probable dynamics of globalization in Azerbaijan, the region and the world. At all uncertainty of forecasts for the future one thing is clear: globalization – a self-developing system, consequences (positive and negative) of which will grow on, that is why every country should master technology of the control and the prevention of threats of this process for itself. It is especially important, as today globalization, in essence, is let to run itself. Political and social-cultural preconditions for acceptance of these ideas by peoples are absent, there are no influential world centers engaged in formation of the policy, leaving space for the development of peoples and their cultures; the number of research and scenarios of cultural dynamics of separate peoples under globalization is not great either. Increase of rigid confrontation between supporters and opponents of globalization demands new approaches to formation of the universal values acceptable for all peoples and integrating cultural experience of inhabitants of the most different regions of the world. Otherwise there is a danger of irrevocable disappearance of this experience already before the mankind will reveal the most viable, "non-polluting" types of life culture and will include these valuable elements in the universal cultural heritage. Unique experience of cultural pluralism and synthesis of various cultural directions can serve as a good model for creation of the mechanism of a harmonious unification of phenomena of culture on the global scale. And experience of generations of people, during centuries living on crossing of power fields of western and eastern civilizations seems in this connection very valuable. It is especially necessary as the majority of political doctrines, economic models, social-cultural concepts and norms of law, not keeping up with dynamics of real life, have hopelessly become outdated, 127


have ceased to correspond to challenges of today. The crisis periods repeatedly arose and in the past, however, the scale of the present emergency having embraced all spheres of the public life, testifies that the situation has found an essentially new character, which overcoming is possible only on the way of a cardinal break of developed stereotypes of thinking, behavior, attitudes. *** The choice of the model of modernization of the state and society becomes a determinative of steady development in modern conditions. By virtue of the above-mentioned reasons every such model should take into account the cultural tradition being formed during a long historical time. In other words the right choice of a modernization model is possible only if an effective social-cultural model capable not only to encourage, but also to produce those styles of the human life and society which are favorable for their steady development, is taken as its system-making element. The problem of modernization in itself is the central problem of development, and under globalization its influence grows repeatedly: modernization turns into a dangerous tool marginalizing culture; that is into the form of cultural colonization and is perceived by a significant part of the society as a cultural shock (see 4), caused by a prompt collision of different types of cultures. Heat limit of a cultural shock is observed in transitive states and societies trying to change rapidly the situation and consciousness of people at the cost of accelerated modernization. Modernization as a borrowing of other’s experience, leads to disorganization, destruction and chaos in the society being late in forming new public institutes and the elite, capable to tame negative consequences of modernization. Hence, the accepted variant of modernization introduced into the space of the basic social-cultural model of the state and public development, though unable not to lead to transformation of the given model, at least, should not destroy vital bases of the cultural tradition. At abundance of theoretical concepts of modernization, almost everywhere we see failures of their practical realization. And one of the reasons of this in the post-Soviet countries, in my opinion, is in the character of judgment of a culture phenomenon. *** Concepts on culture taking it as a certain appendage of the economic basis have desperately become outdated. Today culture is considered, first of all, as a unique system capable at treating it to reproduce the most predictable scenario of the future development. In this foreshortening culture especially functioning in critical phases of its development on synergetic principles, must be considered as permanent creativity, as an opportunity of break in new spiritual space, as continuous navigation in the world, mainly deprived of maps and reference points. Culture – is a phenomenon, allowing to influence the future development of human nature substantially dependent on the character of the person’s creative activity. The person’s activities are triune - it simultaneously or in parallel generates culture, forms of socialization and a civilization, therefore crises of culture regular in history are explained by contradictions and collisions of spiritual and technological developments, becoming considerably aggravated in the epoch of globalization. Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of existing interpretations of culture bears in itself mainly a positive estimation challenged to reflect a "heroic" opposition of human reason, the person’s permanent extending activities - to the “wild” nature, its unrestrained elements. In our century of audit of old values, solving of the hardened stereotypes the time of revision of also prejudices developed around understanding and interpretation of culture has come. The type of culture, which has been reigning during a number of centuries, has a direct relation to occurrence of numerous catastrophes threatening the mankind. As a developed system, culture during separate periods can and experiences stages of painful growth, decline and abnormal development. However, the greatest wane of old ideas on culture is that it continues to be considered as a phenomenon limited to the person’s material and spiritual activities on transformation of the world. Meanwhile, already: «… in the first half of XX century there was introduced trinominal partitioning of 128


culture on material, social and spiritual. The material culture was understood as everything that belongs to mutual relations of the person with his habits, satisfaction of his requirements, securing of his further existence, the technological side of life. The social culture was understood as people’s attitude to each other, systems of statuses and social institutes. The spiritual culture - subjective aspects of life, ideas, values and ways of behavior guided on them” (5). Introduction of the “social culture” concept is a revolutionary step, allowing to say that a new paradigm removing restrictions, interfering to transformation of abstract theoretical constructions into effective models determining in practice specificity of mutual relations of the cultural tradition and the development for a concrete society (state), has ripened in the structure of social sciences and the humanities. Really, by means of social culture material and spiritual culture of the society get definiteness and coherence, they start to be traced clearly in the system of social relations and institutes, the political and economic organization. As a matter of fact, a social-cultural model of development uniting the dynamics of culture and modernization in a uniform concept, finds practical sense at involving of the paradigm of social culture only. And here one has to specify an extremely important judgment of culture, which should be mastered by every society: “In the rich, free and plural society developed in the USA at the end of XX century, the word culture began to be associated with the idea of choice” (6). The point, certainly, is the freedom of choice. A bit later, by the example of Fukuyama's research we shall return to this issue, and for a while we shall consider how Max Weber's ideas representing a social-cultural “measurement” of development, can be applied to Azerbaijan. *** Weber investigated “Protestant ethics”, laid down bases of the western liberal system. How do matters stand with Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan is a country with the prevailing Turkic population, though representatives of almost 30 nations and peoples as a whole live on its territory. The confessional majority – is Moslems - Shiites, but also Sunnis, by different informal calculations, make from 30 up to 40% of the population. At that, an extreme secularization is inherent in Azerbaijan, connected with sufficiently early industrialization and realities of the Soviet atheistic heritage that is why the choice of an entirely "religious" model of Azerbaijan’s social-cultural development appeared unacceptable. Today the country demonstrates the way of development marked with symbiosis “East – West”. Though the spectrum of characteristics can be expanded, it is clear that the declared of them make the basis of national consciousness - the base on which the building of sovereign statehood was being erected during gaining by the people of independence. Finding of independence in our case has coincided with the wreck of totalitarianism and transition to democracy; that is why the national self-awareness started getting sourced with specificity of becoming-to-be and development of a legal state and a civil society in Azerbaijan. The national selfawareness is being modernized under the influence of that political climate, which dominates at present. The ethnos forms a traditional community with hierarchical relations and structure; groups developing together with the growth of the ethnos into phenomena of regionalism. A nation is formed in the state considering all people as equal in rights citizens. Let’s ask ourselves in this connection: has the process of the formation of the Azerbaijani nation ended? Let us remind that we want to receive an answer in terms of politics, instead of culture, and in this case it is negative: not only all the ethnic groups, but also even the leading ethnos of the country still has not consolidated into the nation, the formation of the statehood has not finished yet, let alone a legal state and a civil society. Thus, the Azerbaijani nation as the subject of political history is in the stage of formation that relates it to “the late nations” with all pluses and minuses of such condition (however, as well as the majority of peoples, which have earlier been in the structure of the USSR). The last explains partly why till now we do not have the concept of national self-awareness, as, however, also why the known model of the beginning of the century: “Turkism, Islamism, Modernization” - cannot be accepted as a basis of such concept. It is an ethnic, instead of national model, which cannot incorporate completely a modern political and cultural state of Azerbaijan and display the sovereignty of the person as a citizen.

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Let's focus on the situation from which we have started and continue moving to independence. Our movement fell on the end of the 20th century and was carried out in the geopolitical space formed by mainly western political values. At the same time Azerbaijanis with expressed east (Soviet) mentality are formed into a nation under conditions of unique transition from the totalitarian dictatorship to democracy, from the planned economy to the market. In Azerbaijan for the last decades of socialism, the state and the authorities have traditionally made a decisive influence on the formation of economic, social and political relations. The Soviet totalitarianism and hierarchy have led to the formation of a rigid organizational control system subordinating all social structures to the centralized, and often also personified of authority. The destruction of this system has led to a sharp destabilization of public structures; a prompt stratification of the society in the scales generated a cultural shock. It could not be otherwise, as all of us are the children of totalitarianism only trying on clothes of democracy, considering that an external form is more important than an internal content. Today these delusions are veining overcome both by an internal enlightenment, and an external compulsion. The big problem facing the national self-awareness, is in overcoming of its marginality. It is paradoxical, the Azerbaijani culture could synthesize in itself all the best of external influence, processing it in its own national tradition, but similar plasticity of culture as if has been hindering the development of a political maturity and complicating the movement to an independent state. Azerbaijan’s culture has whenever possible resisted to the Soviet pattern of division on “national by the form and socialist by the content” while the defective political system translated incessantly the Russian political-ideological lexicon on the national language and imposed it to the culture. The amazing speed with which almost all Azerbaijanis have thrown off from themselves socialist clothes, which seemed having turned in skin, is a parameter of that it was nevertheless an original ritual, instead of a serious conviction. Isn’t there a danger that we will soon be able to observe a similar picture concerning the western political doctrine prevailing today and the English language successfully superseding Russian? It is known that absence of statehood reduces identity to especially language unity, therefore a struggle for the restoration of the language status is an inevitable stage for all national movements striving for independence. However, after achievement of independence in order to turn the language into an original element of national dialogue and statehood, it should be filled in with a new political content - it must become a language of a civil society and a legal state. It is typical that together with the transition to Latin in Turkey a translational revolution given the population an opportunity to familiarize on the native language with the best samples of the world political, economic, philosophical literature and fiction, was carried out. It not to a lesser degree, than only political methods, promoted the consolidation of the Turkish nation consisting of a much more number of ethnic groups, than in our case. Terms “Azerbaijanis” and “Azerbaijanism” are a result of the historical development, it is a fact, which must be accepted, instead of to discuss from moral or spiritual positions: history has taken us to this, as well as to independence and made our life a reality. But an absolutely other point is a transformation of these terms into carrying constructions of a social-cultural model of Azerbaijan’s development demands a wide discussion and research of “anatomy and physiology” of Azerbaijanism, which do not yet go beyond the framework of a terminological discussion. A special point is the place of religion in the secular state. Religion should be integrated into culture, but not in politics, it should diversify the tradition, turn into a factor of spirituality and a norm of moral values. We must generate our own ‘ethics” promoting a dynamic and steady development. But at that the new cultural self-identification should help mastering of the western political values as it has taken place in Japan and some countries of Southeast Asia that is in the form of own tradition. In the terms of the western political science this process looks as follows: “The precondition of the basis of the modern liberal state was an idea that in interests of the political peace the government would not begin to support any moral requirements on the part of religion and traditional culture. The church and the state should be separated from each other; the pluralism of opinions concerning the most important moral and ethical questions concerning the final purposes or the nature of good is necessary. Tolerance should become the 130


basic value. The place of a moral consensus was to be occupied by clear laws and public institutes providing the political order” (7). In turning points of history the cultural tradition is used as a form of adaptation to new conditions of vital activities. It was especially brightly showed in the failure of attempts of direct tracing principles of the western democracy on the post-Soviet ground, rather different in separate republics. In the West, and now also in a number of the countries of the East, these principles are treated widely and freely enough in order that it would be possible to deduce a certain universal “formula of democracy”. Formation of the nation and its self-consciousness is possible on the way of the consolidation of a legal state and a civil society which models, however, should carry a national - cultural form. Hence, much depends on a cultural and general dynamics of changing the culture and ideas about it in the world. *** So, what are the features of the Azerbaijani cultural tradition? It is necessary to recognize that in the Azerbaijani public consciousness an art reflection still prevails over a theoretical reflection, the world of culture still pushes the world of politics to the shadow, meanwhile, all over the world the historical development has been supported by the movement of selfconsciousness from literature to philosophy and from them to a real life, politics. The majority of our modern problems are neither art, nor philosophical, they – are political so far as we resist to the life in the world of a real politics. 19-20 centuries therefore have an exclusive value for Azerbaijan that a new social-cultural model of the vital activities of the Azerbaijani society, determined starting of the formations of the ethnos into the people, began growing ripe in the second half of the first of them. This process, as well as processes of socialization and politicization of the society, were artificially frozen during the Soviet time, that is why today there is a new process of transition of the ethnos at once into the nation, a little bit artificial process, as the historical situation of the beginning of the last century forming the people, has already changed. “The late peoples” – the term of the western political science, - is inverted also to Azerbaijanis, constant and unsuccessfully trying to catch up in development the western countries. We have lost or for the present have not found the point of rest in history, of counting out of our culture, statehood, mentality, not that this point is absent in general, on the contrary, they are many and we cannot stop on a system of their ordering. Our last hundred years are more or less clear, but not lived over. The Middle Ages, origin and turning of capitalism, the epoch of socialism (including also as new feudalism), quasi-return to the beginning of the century, with all heavy problems and tests of that time, today's transitive untimeliness have merged in them. Our 1000-years - blockages of myths, fragments of historical events, dissociation and autonomies of development, finally covered not only by philosophical, but also an art reflection. But here there is a question: is it because there was no necessary prosaic reflection, or philosophy was cosmopolite appendage of culture, reflection above the history of others? Our thought often goes on a circle: to search in "another's"-, - “own”, to reduce “own” to "another's"? A new problem has arisen today - globalization, with all small pluses big minuses following from here for Azerbaijan. The technological wave can throw us at once in the world of a mechanical memory, but whether is it possible to exist in it without a historical memory?! The Soviet intelligentsia, which has survived the epoch has failed to become the people’s intelligentsia, capable to put problems of the national development, therefore it has not created the program, it has headed neither art, nor philosophical movement, it has not at all gone to the world of politics and has not led the people after itself. Do we need a new intelligentsia and is it possible at us? The mission of intelligentsia is “simple”: to generate in Azerbaijanis the feeling of statehood, an interest to the political, to remove from family (but to not withdraw at all) in the society, where the formation of both the Azerbaijani nation, and statehood is possible only. Probably, we are expected, first, the formation of a new intellectual elite, and then - becoming of the nation. The fault of the old, becoming obsolete intelligentsia is "escape" from life, closeness in everything and from everything, attempts to run away 131


from the truth of life. It is necessary to rise from the area of "unconscious" development of the reality to the realized world of contradictions - to face the reality, to look at the eyes of our own destiny. For now autonomy, dispassionateness of culture from life, its plasticity, skill to force others’ models to work in own tradition are characteristic for us. It is known that real time and space – are closed categories for eternity, therefore a chronotopic model of the Azerbaijan culture is not socialized (there is still much archaism in it). It can be understood only as a whole that is why, at absence of generalizing works, it is simply closed for the analysis. To change the situation, refusal from descriptiveness, transition to reflection, freedom of thought and action are necessary. It is necessary to get out of the circle of myth, for the person - to become a citizen, for the people - the nation, which has preserved itself and the culture. The mission of the new intellectual elite – is to connect literature to philosophy, to refuse a permanent stand on another's, to become moral, to cease to create modern myths and eposes, to tell itself the truth, to remove “curtains of decencies ", to cease to rob itself and thus to justify larceny as a national phenomenon, to cease to be afraid of history. To develop the Azerbaijani language as a conceptual system, as a communicative system of politics and society, to cease to count Baku as Azerbaijan only, to generate a uniform sight at Azerbaijan, his history and people, to move with the mankind remaining the people and the nation. Pluralism in the approach to cultures has become a sign of approaching of new time not only in the science about cultures, but also both in politics, and in ideology, which by themselves also are phenomena of culture, displays of certain social-cultural norms and values. Therefore modern political and social transformation of societies and states of the transitional period must be estimated as an attempt to develop a new cultural role. *** Now let’s return, as we’ve declared earlier, to the consideration of the phenomenon of the Great split submitted in works of American researcher Fukuyama. In the developed western countries this period covered 60s – 90s of the last century and marked itself as transition of these countries during the epoch of postindustrial development at which values and norms of the industrial society were subjected to a total revision. The nearest negative consequence of the Great split became the increase of social problems caused by the crisis of social-cultural models of development, the amplifying dynamics of moral relativism. As Fukuyama marks: “The society, which wants “no limits” for its technological innovations, collides with the same “no limits” for many forms of an individual behavior either, with growth of criminality, disintegration of families… with citizens’ refusal from participation in the public life” (8). For the analysis of the developed situation, Fukuyama used the concept developed and a little bit modified He presented “the social capital” “as a set of informal values or norms, which are shared by members of a group and made cooperation inside this group possible” (9). At that, the author specifies that: “By itself, the acceptance by a group of people of the common values and norms doesn’t make the social capital because values can be false too” (10). Family (11), and also the various organizations and associations of people challenged to solve a range of tasks, are presented as the major sources of the social capital. Let’s make a small deviation here for better understanding by us of the presented term. In due time the theory of information based on ideas concerning the organizational order, has introduced into the discourse (Leon Brullien) a concept of neg- entropy, challenged to become opposition to the concept entropy - measures of disorganization of a system and a degree of dispersion of stocks of its energy. Drawing an analogy in the world of social relations, it is possible to say that the social capital – is “potential energy” of the society, “social neg-entropy”, capable to overcome problems arising before the society. That is why, on Fukuyama’s idea, the social capital is connections of trust and the social complicity promoting the organizations and advance of interests and ideas of certain groups, it is even simpler – Alex Tocquille’s expression – “the art to get united” (today to say more precisely, "to selforganize"), that is why it has a close link with the civil society professing in constant struggle with the state the idea of self-management. 132


The conclusion made by Fukuyama on the basis of statistics that the Great split as a whole was avoided by such countries as Japan and South Korea, that is a parameter of importance of the factor of culture during modernization and postindustrial development, seems important for us The theory of management, that is the theory of the organization and maintenance of the order in the society (state), knew one productive scheme - hierarchy of imperious relations, however, it has recently been supplemented with a new scheme - a network based on different types of connection ("horizontal", instead of "vertical") of elements of the system and movement of information between them. In a foreshortening of the synergetic approach networks (as against hierarchies) possess ability to the spontaneous self-organizing, producing the order in not hierarchical ways. Emphasizing the difference between these types of management, the author writes: “Other solution of the problem of coordination of strongly delegated organizations is a network – a form of a spontaneous order, which results from actions of decentralized agents, instead of being created by any centralized authority. In order to make networks really capable to succeed in creation of the order, they inevitably should depend on informal norms occupying the place of a formal organization – in other words, on the social capital” (12). However, recognizing the role of network systems in management, Fukuyama believes justly that the future is for a reasonable supplement of them by hierarchical systems. “First, we can’t count existence of networks and the social capital, which lays in their basis, something natural in itself, and there where they don’t exist, the hierarchy can be a unique form of the organization. Second, the hierarchy is often functionally necessary for achievement of purposes, which the organization puts before itself. And, third, people by nature like to be organized hierarchically.” (13). Not pressing in the further details, it is necessary to determine what values and norms can make the base of the formation of a new social capital in Azerbaijan, what should be assigned to a hierarchical control system of authorities and what to give to self-organizing networks of the civil society in this process. Besides it is necessary to find out, when the variant of the “Great split” started to be carried out in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has gone through several similar phases, the last of which falls on the periods of colonization of the country by Russia, the establishment of the independent ADR, the Bolshevik coup and the gaining sovereignty at the end of 20th century. Our last Great split seems the most global and dramatic (14). The globalization destroying the old "classical" world of the mankind rests on the new methodological pillars. The general condition of spiritual and cultural searches of mankind of this and subsequent periods is united at the world outlook level by the concept of the postmodernism undermining a habitual classical picture of the world. Really, the condition of postmodern is experienced by culture, science, philosophy, all the mankind. The circle of problems of the new “philosophy of life” is curious: is knowledge, science legitimate (J-F Lutar), aren’t they built in hierarchy of ordinary imperious relations far from democracy (M. Fouko), and in general, has the person aligns with a reality" (Z. Bodriar); what depressing result waits the theoretical idea at carrying out of the deconstruction of literary and even scientific texts (Z. Derrida), and do we understand correctly the phenomenon of the unconscious? (J. Lakan) – here is a list far from being full, of questions and problems inverted to the newest time. Gradually, the world, the person disappear; the object and the subject are switched no more; isn’t it a new world in which the traditional person should disappear or adapt to the simulation of life? The person, to live further, must accept in himself death of the subject, the individual, the person, the personality, say, destruction of the uniform beginning conformable to unity of the world (which is rejected by postmodernism too). Hasn’t the mother of "exact" sciences - physics - passed from physics of things to physics of relations after wreck of the classical outlook? So, why not replace sociology of the person with sociology of relations? In fact, in the reality we have a whole number of identities, distinguished from each other, generated by local historical and cultural events. And if it is so, what can know, more precisely, what truly new can know the "subject" of postmodern itself, how far “into depth” is it capable “to read” itself? 133


Thus, a curious picture is made by postmodernism: a certain infinite network of relations instead of the real world (socium), any cell of which can be taken as (but to not be!) the center. Monism, having waved good-by, has proclaimed the termination of the era of the world unity, making way for pluralism, omnivorous and willing up to any statements attacking universalism and rationalism of the postmodern existence of the mankind, destroying any systems applying for completeness. And minus these systems, by the way, there is nothing more left! And in general – down with (any - from philosophy up to politics) hierarchies! The essential item is continuous democracy struggling with any kinds of totalitarianism, recognizing cultural pluralism, equality of any philosophical and scientific doctrines.

The network, thrown on the nature, is ready for socium also, now are already important not institutions and organizations, but riches of the network of relations between them. Postmodernism turns quickly from a theoretical foundation and methodology of philosophy into daily practice and a valuable dominant of politics. But if the philosophical postmodernism is really democratic, really asserts pluralism of values and methodologies, then, in the political aspect postmodernism is more selective, if not to say, - biased. The epoch of a democratic recognition of value of all cultures and religions, pluralism of multiculturalism, postmodernist basis of philosophical anthropology began to be exposed to revising with the beginning of the globalization "successfully complimented with the concept of “clash of civilizations”, and after September, 11, 2001 they have been under the threat of a radical revision. Politics takes from postmodernism only what corresponds to its offensive spirit. The epoch of postmodernism has left a deep trace in humanitarian research if not to say, that it has revolutionized them. So, from the middle of the 20th century there has started the formation of new directions, which not going in the frameworks of separate disciplines, apply for wide areas of knowledge of both natural-scientific, and humanitarian character. These directions simultaneously embrace methodological, world outlook and general philosophical problems. For a short time interval they have made essential changes to the settled perceptions about the world, the generated civilization and styles of knowledge of the person. It is possible to relate global and social ecology, synergetic, culture of the world, gender, the theory of globalism, the concept of "alive" history, the theory and practice of informal movements, etc. to number of such directions. All these directions are united with a new sight at democracy, as they themselves have become "spokesmen" of democratic principles for they base entirely on methods of pluralism and the postmodernist vision of the world. Alongside with it, they demonstrate superbly all the limitation and narrowness of the totalitarian and authoritative thinking depriving the person of his right of a creative choice. In their totality these directions have laid down bases of new consciousness and new thinking, which confirm permanently effectiveness of democratic principles, necessity of becoming-to-be of a steady civil society and a legal state, freedom of informal movements not only in science, but in practice of the social life too. The concept of relations and networks is a prominent feature of the methodology and the world vision of these directions. Spontaneously organized networks take the place of structures and hierarchical organizations already not only in the theory, but in practice as well. For example, gender – is a difficult social-cultural phenomenon, - determining distinctions in roles, behavior, mentality and emotions of men and women. Gender in its founders’ reflections is deprived of concreteness or consumerism, more likely, it – is a composition of interlacing sex-role relations, presented in formal and informal networks of the society. The gender discourse demands from the researcher to think by relations, procedurally that characterizes all the named new directions of knowledge also. Natural-scientific and humanitarian thinking agreed one point - postmodernist vision of the nature and the society. We live in the world alternately created and destroyed by our paradigm of culture. That is why, as Ionin marks, in the modern society “the naive belief in objectivity and predefiniteness of public processes disappears, and it means that the society itself changes. Objectively significant systems of stratification disappear, compulsorily obligatory ways of life vanish, the place of traditions is occupied by styles, vital forms are chosen freely, a postmodernist arbitrariness dominates in an explanation so also in behavior. Social changes receive basic cultural motivation. All these phenomena 134


testify that the culture adopts progressive functions of the motor, the mover of a public change and development” (15). Comprehension of the new realities of the society and the state under globalization demonstrates on what grandiose challenges of the modernity Azerbaijan must find adequate answers. Notes: 1. Вебер М. Избранные произведения. М., Прогресс, 1990, Протестантская этика и дух капитализма, с. 44 -344. 2. Фукуяма. Ф. Великий Разрыв. М., АСТ, 2003. 3. Ионин Л. Основания социокультурного анализа. М., 1995. 4. Ионин Л. Основания социокультурного анализа… 5. Ионин Л. Основания социокультурного анализа, с. 24-25. Let's pay attention, that Ionin presenting trinomial partitioning of culture, refers to the book (Kroeber A., Kluckhohn C. Culture. A critical review of concepts and definitions/Cambridge, Massachusetts), left in the USA in the middle of the last century (1952). Our backlog, hence, is equal approximately to half a century. 6. Фукуяма. Ф. Великий Разрыв, с. 29. 7. Фукуяма. Ф. Великий Разрыв, с.21-22. 8. Фукуяма. Ф. Великий Разрыв, с. 28. 9. Фукуяма. Ф. Великий Разрыв, с. 30. 10. In the same place. 11. « All societies have some reserve of the social capital; real distinctions between them are connected by that it is possible to name «radius of trust » … Obviously, that in any case family - is an important source of the social capital ». Фукуяма. Ф. Великий Разрыв, с. 31. 12. Фукуяма. Ф. Великий Разрыв, с. 270. 13. Фукуяма. Ф. Великий Разрыв, с. 303. 14. In this connection I shall allow myself to bring a rather big citation from F.Fukuyama's book: “The social capital is not any rare and precious object which was created once in the century of belief and handed down by virtue of ancient tradition. It has either no constant source, which today is destroyed by us, modern secular people. However though the stock of the social capital replenishes constantly, this process does not go automatically easy and without costs. The same invention, which increases productivity or creates a new industry, undermines existing community or makes all way of life out-ofdate. The societies rising on the escalator of technological progress are constantly compelled to play overtaking, as social rules develop to correspond to changed economic conditions. The mechanical production moves people from village to city and separates husbands from families while information technologies return them in the countryside and push women for work. Nuclear families disappear with the advent of agriculture, appear and again with industrialization and start to fall into decay with transition to the postindustrial era. People can in due course adapt to all these changed conditions, but speed of technological changes frequently can exceed the speed of the social adaptation. When manufacture of the social capital is not capable to satisfy the requirement, societies have to pay the expensive price for it. In the society there are two processes, developing in parallel. In the political and economic sphere history is progressive and linear, and at the end of 20th century liberal democracy as a unique viable choice for technologically developed societies became the culmination of it. In the social and moral sphere, however, history, apparently, is cyclic, and the social capital decreases and grows during the life of numerous generations. There is nothing that would guarantee growth of the social capital in a cycle. The unique basis for hope is very powerful internal human abilities to a reconstruction of the social order. On success of this process of the reconstruction depends, whether the arrow of History will be directed upwards » (pp. 383-384). 15. Ионин Л. Основания социокультурного анализа, с.5. Today & Tomorrow.Azerbaijan in Focus.-2008.-№ 3(10) March.-P.12-23. 135


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Proud to have been born in Azerbaijan Semyon Ikhiilov is the leader of the Mountain Jews in Azerbaijan, the largest Jewish community in the country. He gives Visions magazine his perspective on the fascinating history of the Mountain Jews and talks about their lives in modern-day Azerbaijan Where does the name Mountain Jews come from? Many Jews have a prefix such as Mountain Jews, German Jews, Syrian Jews, or Ashkenazi Jews, Sephardic Jews and others. After slavery in Egypt our ancestors moved to Iran and 2,700 years ago came to North Azerbaijan. They settled in the mountains where the Tats lived (who later converted to Islam). The Jews are peaceful, not warlike people, and our ancestors became close friends with the Tats. For 300-400 years the Jews gave their daughters in marriage to the Tats and vice versa. The Jews and Tats intermingled and as a result the Jews gradually lost their language and began to speak Tat. But the Jews are religious people and they kept the Torah with them and prayed in Hebrew three times a day. These Hebrew prayers remain in our folk memory and are the only Hebrew that we know today. The language of daily life became Tat and the Tat-speaking Jews were called Mountain Jews. Our nation has survived difficult times. When our ancestors lived in the mountains they were attacked by the forces of Nadir Shah as well as by Lezgins and other ethnic groups that lived in presentday Dagestan. They were robbed and killed, so the Jews had to find new shelter. Three hundred years ago they asked Fatali Khan's father, Huseyn Aga Khan, for help. He offered them land on the far bank of the river (Qudyalchay) at present-day Quba. This Mountain Jewish town is called the Red Settlement or Krasnaya Sloboda. In the first five years of the settlement the Jews were freed of all taxes, because they were still building their new town. They worked hard, especially in commerce, to earn their living. A link to the town of Quba was important for the development of business, so the bridge between Krasnaya Sloboda and Quba was built. The link to Quba and nearby towns was not enough - life went on- and the Jews decided to move near the sea. This whole area was known as the Jewish settlement. At this time the Jews helped to fill the coffers of the Quba governorate. Today a central street in Krasnaya Sloboda is named after Fatali Khan. Everything was fine until the establishment of the Soviet regime. In the Soviet era the Jews' business and religious life fell into decay. Prominent rabbis were executed, while other rabbis and their families were sent into internal exile so that they could not return to Krasnaya Sloboda. Synagogues were closed. At best God's houses were turned into party branches, at worst into warehouses. Even during the most prosperous period of the Soviet Union no-one invested a kopeck here. Only the Jews spent money, built houses at their own expense and developed the settlement. Jews are hardworking, enterprising people. Krasnaya Sloboda is well-known and respected all over the world. Today the Mountain Jews are the largest community of Jews in Azerbaijan (95 per cent). We are also the oldest community, over 2,700 years old. There are European and Georgian Jewish communities here. The members of these two communities pray in their synagogues. As we are the largest community of Jews in Azerbaijan, the chairman of the Community of Mountain Jews has represented the Jewish community of Azerbaijan at home and abroad for more than 10 years now. That's me -your obedient servant. What is the current state of the Mountain Jewish Community of Azerbaijan? As I have already said, Mountain Jews have lived in Azerbaijan for 2,700 years. Jews have lived in almost all Azerbaijan's regions, but now the number of Jews is falling day by day. The Jewish population is migrating to the centre - to Baku. This is mainly because employment opportunities are concentrated in the capital. This is a common problem for the Azerbaijani population. The Karabakh conflict created an army of refugees, economic hardships and other problems that have had a negative impact on the standard of living of the whole population. Despite all these difficulties the economy has greatly developed under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev. The economic boom is regularly noted in the reports of international economic organizations. Building, reconstruction, renovation are everywhere. The whole territory of Azerbaijan has become a large building site. Even cultural facilities are closed for reconstruction. In other words, tremendous work is under way in all spheres of the life of our society. 137


This society was founded by national leader Heydar Aliyev and we, Azerbaijani society, are erecting a building called democracy. The condition of the Mountain Jews does leave something to be desired. Today mostly elderly Jews live in Azerbaijan and they need social support. We have a long list of people who need support. If you look through the list you can see the names and surnames of people of other ethnic origins too. If a man comes to God's home with outstretched hands and asks for aid, then we try to help them, regardless of their ethnicity and religious affiliation. We cannot let people go without. Although we do not have enough voluntary donations, we try not to leave needy families without financial support. The poorest are often the elderly whose children have gone abroad. They are people who have lived all their lives in Azerbaijan, contributed their mite to the prosperity of Azerbaijan and rightly consider Azerbaijan to be their homeland. They have earned their pension through their honest work, although this pension does not provide enough to live on. They cannot leave the country. Most of them are heroes of this country. It is easy for young people to leave, as they have to bring up their children and give them a proper education, and education and medical services have to be paid for in a market economy. The American-Jewish organization Joint supports us in providing aid to needy families. Joint was founded in 1927 and gives help to Diaspora Jews. Through the Jewish House they do their best to help the elderly, of whom there are around 2,000. They provide medical and food assistance and rent wards in hospitals for treatment and medical check-ups. A ward will be put at the disposal of our elderly for a week and all medical services are paid for. Cultural programmes and trips within Azerbaijan are also organized for them. Charitable dinners are held and hot meals are delivered to homes. Food assistance, winter clothes and medicines are donated. The needy are provided with gas-stoves, refrigerators, ventilators and other domestic appliances. Sometimes flats are repaired. Everything is done to ensure the welfare of people and their families. The special programme for the elderly includes lectures and meals. Cars fetch those who cannot walk unaided. They are also taken to the barbers and bath house. How do the Mountain Jews fit into Azerbaijani society? Are they well integrated? Mountain Jews are represented in almost all spheres of the economy. They take an active part in private business and are involved in political, medical, educational and cultural life. Our community is also represented in the Azerbaijani parliament. Unemployment is a known problem. It is difficult to find professional work. The higher paid jobs go to those with a foreign language and computer skills. The question arises: what do people do with a doctor's, engineer's or teacher's diploma? Is there a problem of mass Jewish emigration from Azerbaijan? Most of the Jewish community now lives outside the country. They work abroad to support their families and children. Our community is suffering from the common economic problems. In the past a member of the family might leave for a former Soviet country or elsewhere to earn money. They would be able to come back to attend, say, family weddings, their sons' and daughters' Bar and Bat Mizvah or funerals. They visited God's house – the synagogue - and made their voluntary donation. Working outside Azerbaijan was meant to be temporary, but it has gone on because of the economic hardships. The cost of air travel has risen astonishingly and not everyone can afford to visit their family often. Instead they try to take their family to the country where they are working.Therefore, we are losing voluntary foreign donations, which are gradually becoming less and less. There was a time when Jews emigrated from Azerbaijan. A great number of Jews left for different countries, especially the USA and Israel. Not everyone settled well. Some people, not so many, have come back. They returned because of the terrorism threat in Israel. Some fear for the safety of their children and leave them here while they are abroad. How do you get on with other faiths in Azerbaijan?

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For a long time the three traditional faiths in Azerbaijan have formed a highly tolerant trio: the Sheykh-ul-Islam of the Caucasus, Haji Allahshukur Pashazade; the Bishop of Baku and the Caspian Eparchy [of the Russian Orthodox Church], Bishop Alexander; and your obedient servant, the chairman of the Religious Community of the Mountain Jews in Azerbaijan, Semyon Ikhiilov. The three of us attend events together. If one of us was absent from any official event, [the late President] Heydar Aliyev would certainly take an interest and ask, "Where is the Sheikh?" or "Where is Semyon?" This is evidence of the high level of relations amongst the traditional religious communities. Under the conditions of tolerance that prevail in Azerbaijani society we have respect for religions and cooperate with one another in mutual understanding. The Community of Mountain Jews of Azerbaijan has a special place in the country. We are treated very well. We make our contribution to society and the leadership of the country as well as to other fraternal religions. On 19 October 2007 our community held a general meeting and election in the Mountain Jews' synagogue. Three items were on the agenda: the annual report, internal discipline in the synagogue - worshippers should attend the synagogue on time and should observe holiness and not speak during prayers and the election of a new chairman. The Sheykh-ul-Islam of the Caucasus, Sheykh Allahshukur Pashazade, Bishop Alexander of the Baku and Caspian Eparchy and representatives of the State Committee for Work with Religious Institutions also asked to attend the assembly. This is clear evidence of tolerance. Three candidates were nominated for the position of chairman of the Community of Mountain Jews. Everyone chose the candidacy of the current chairman and from 1 January 2008 I will begin the new term of my chairmanship. When prominent religious leaders such as Aleksiy II, the Patriarch of All Russia, and the late Pope John Paul II visited Azerbaijan, they were astonished at the tolerance, friendship and mutual understanding among the leaders of the three religions. After what he saw in Baku, the Pope invited us to the Vatican. Sheykh Allahshukur Pashazade, Bishop Alexander and I accepted the invitation and visited the Vatican. We continued the dialogue we had started in Baku during the audience with his Holiness. The Pope, who did not spend more then 10-15 minutes even with presidents, spent more than an hour with us. This religious leader of global stature did a great deal for the reconciliation of Jews and Christians, although 2,000 years ago the Roman Catholic Church slandered the Jews on Christ's death. I would like to state clearly that anti-Semitism has never existed in Azerbaijan. Jews have not suffered from religious and ethnic persecution. We are citizens of this republic with equal rights. We live as brothers with the Azerbaijani nation in perfect concord. Official figures or delegations visiting Azerbaijan always receive us together and are all amazed. It is exceptional, an example for the whole world. Armenia- Azerbaijan conflict has already lasted for 20 years. Internationally, Armenians try to present it as an inter-religious conflict, a clash of civilizations. Do you think this is accurate? The Armenians have always tried to give this conflict a religious hue. We have never had this problem. During the difficult years of the Karabakh conflict we were united with the fraternal Azerbaijani nation and fought for the territorial integrity of our Republic. My friendship with Sheykh ul-Islam Allahshukur Pashazade arose during the tragic days of Azerbaijan - on 22 January 1990 when we buried the martyrs of that Black Day, 20 January. These innocent victims fell at the hand of the Soviet Army when troops were brought onto the streets of Baku. The disaster brought us together and since then we have been friends and have cooperated in an atmosphere of perfect mutual understanding. There were also Jews who died during the January tragedy. Jew Albert Agaronov is a national hero of Azerbaijan. He died in the battle for Shusha in May 1992 when Azerbaijanis were trying to ward off Armenian attacks. His memory is honoured by everyone. The school where this hero studied has been named after him. The community holds special events at the school and celebrates his birthday to the present day. Children read poems and compositions dedicated to Albert at his grave. What is your vision of Azerbaijan?

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I'm proud that I was born in Azerbaijan. I'm very glad that I live with such tolerant people. For centuries the nations inhabiting Azerbaijan have lived in peace. When we were Soviet people 30-40 years ago we lived in communal flats. In those close quarters all the nations lived as a family. Everyone - Jews, Azerbaijanis, Russians, Armenians, Tatars - were together both in times of trouble and celebration. I think that all the Mountain Jews consider Azerbaijan their native land. More than once I have been offered very good jobs in Israel, Germany and the USA. I politely refused. I will not go anywhere. This is my homeland, my home is here and, at the end of the day, my mother lives here. Inetrviewed by Rovshan Didavari Visions of Azerbaijan.-2008.-№3.1.-P.14-21.

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2003-2008: development and progress The reforms implemented by President Ilham Aliyev in all fields during the recent 5 years have strengthened international image of our country and close integration to the world economic system conditioned our successes. More intensive provision of democratic values in the society, macroeconomic results of the social-economic development strategy, strengthening of the civil society institutions are the logic result of the correctly defined political course. More enlargement of the national development strategy founded by nationwide leader Heydar Aliyev informs about the large perspectives. Mr.Ilham Aliyev who won the big confidence of people during the elections of 15 October, 2003 confirmed that he kept all his promises given before the activity of presidency. The view “Real policy is to do true and concrete work” belonging to the country leader Ilham Aliyev was attractive by its great results in all spheres of country life. Essence of the management philosophy continued by President Ilham Aliyev is to serve the state and nation, solve the problems of Azerbaijan. Titanic works implemented during these years for the strengthening of position and role of our country in the world are being positively appreciated by each citizen of country. Economic success gained in the last for years were increased to a considerable extent. During this time interval economy of Azerbaijan was increased for two times, our republic kept again its leadership in the world due to the volume of commodity production. A lot of important measures were taken by the head of state and there were adopted a number of state programs covering these fields in order to accelerate the social-economic development of our country. Factors which will stimulate economic development in all regions in the forthcoming years and principal directions of the state policy in this regard were defined in the state programs adopted. Implementation of the State Program for Social-Economic Development of Regions of Azerbaijan Republic (2004-2008 years) confirmed by the decree of the head of state dated 11 February, 2004 causes to the potential development of regions, as well as enlargement of the infrastructures, establishment of new production and processing enterprises, social objects, more betterment of the living standards of population. Following the period after the adoption of state programs the head of state closely introduced with the situation in the places by paying visits to all regions. Citizens of country highly appreciate periodic visits paid by President Ilham Aliev to the regions and his instructions regarding the solution of problems in the time interval. Role of public sector in the social economic development of the regions is significant. All of the opportunities are being used for the enlargement of entrepreneurship in the country. Elimination of negative factors making obstacle to the development of the entrepreneurships and supports made closely to the persons of such kind of category from the date of establishment of National Fond for Support of Entrepreneurship gave positive results. Development of non-oil sector in Azerbaijan led to the complex development of Republic by eliminating the oil dependency. As a result of complex measures our economy has developed at a speed which has no analogue. This development tendency will continue in the forthcoming years according to the calculations made by international financial entities. Ilham Aliyev, the head of state noted that economic development was at a rapid speed and would get the biggest results in the forthcoming years: “Recently economy increases very rapidly in Azerbaijan. During the three years increase of general domestic product was 96 per cent and these processes continue. Industry production increases together with increase of volume of economy, new working places are being opened, and the biggest infrastructure projects are being implemented. Volume of the state investments put by the state will consist at least 3 billion dollars in the budget of 2008 year. Already local investments are larger than foreign investments in Azerbaijan from the point of volume. It shows that there are good business conditions both for foreign investors and local companies in Azerbaijan. Our economy was fully liberalized. Azerbaijan is the leading country in the region due to volume of direct foreign investments per capita”. Successful reforms made in all fields during the period following the presidential elections of 2003 provided rapid development of Azerbaijan and more increased its image in the world. According to the current forecasts, general domestic product will consist of at least 26 billion manat. It is forecasted that currency resources of Azerbaijan will exceed 7 billion manat. High price increase of oil in the world market also plays important role in the increase of state budget. Budget incomes have been increased more than four times during President Ilham Aliyev’s power. Main feature of the state budget policy is that the government spares 65-70 percent of the resources to the execution of social programs, especially to the betterment of the social – economic provision of population. At that period there was put into use Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan oil pipeline opening way to the serious changes in the future public-political and 141


economic life of the regional countries which are important not only from economic point of view, but also geopolitical point of view. In addition to it, laying of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan gas pipeline is important from the point of view of bringing Azeri gas directly to the world market. It plays outstanding role in the formulation of parts of income of the state budget. As well as, a lot of works have been done regarding the building of Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line. Despite of the pressures by some states and international entities Azerbaijan decisively took on the responsibility regarding the financing of project and significant agreements were reached in this area. These projects plays important role from the point of view of power security for Europe and this considerably increases geopolitical importance of our country in the world. Regular measures taken regarding the pensions and social allowances are agreed by the country population. Following the fact that law “On Social Allowances” became effective, a new stage began in our country regarding the separation of pension system based on the social insurance relations from the social aid system financed by the state budget. Last four years may be considered successful from the point of view of social development. Year-byyear increase of the base part of pensions and increment of social allowances and salaries was directed to the improvement of social position of population. Signing of more than 10 decrees and orders by the head of state gives visual evidence to all mentioned issues. Experience of the developed countries shows that one of the main conditions of the democratic development of society is the formulation of staff’s potential meeting to the requirements of period and creation of the state management system over the quick and working mechanisms. Democracy is widely used just in the country where the rights and freedoms of any individual are highly appreciated. Power which is the representative of the public interests is always based on the laws of progressive character and its common purpose is to provide disinteresting service to the people. Realization of these purposes depends on the new elements of spirit, modernity and democracy in the state management, firstly, through the formulation of monolith, powerful and professional team. It is nice that Mr. Ilham Aliyev who was elected as the President of Azerbaijan by gaining the confidence of people, sets the personnel policy according to the requirements of the new period. Following the election as a head of state he held the first meeting with the government members. This principle, put forward by Mr. Ilham Aliyev regarding the service for the sake of people as the requirement and duty, is now effective. “Irrespective to the position, the main duty of each head is to serve to the nation, people. I will appreciate officials for the affairs executed by them and relationship with the people. If you are satisfied with him/her, I will praise him/her. If you are not satisfied, I will dismissed” said Mr. Ilham Aliyev and therewith he expressed tactful approach to the public opinion. The policy implemented in Azerbaijan which succeeded to maintain its leadership in the world arena for its economic development records served to the progress of human factor. At the initiative and supervision of Ilham Aliyev, the solution of unemployment problem, put into use new social infrastructure objects – education, culture, medicine, communications managements – providing road, water, gas, electricity infrastructure serve to the progress of cultural-intellectual level of Azerbaijan people. Simultaneously, 4th year activity of head of state is reached with caring to science and education, which is the strategic field in the country. In this period it was increased attention to the development of science and education, defined the actions which would be made, on the strengthening of financial-technical base of this field, financial provision, development of main fundamental and applied sciences. From year to year increasing of expenses, considered for education in the budget, making successive affairs in the direction of improvement of social position of teachers is the obvious appearance of this attention. As a pragmatic leader Mr. Ilham Aliyev takes into account development interests of the new world regulation and first of all, considers directing the facilities gaining from the oil to the development of human factors, providing development by means of final achievements of scientific-technical progress. Rapid economic development, wide financial facilities necessitate increasing attention to these fields. Simultaneously, in order to maintain existing successes in this significant stage, providing high scientificintellectual level in the management is very important. Increasing state budget facilities from year to year is actualized solution of some outstanding problems (which were arisen long ago) in this stage because-of financial shortcoming in the field of education. One of the important factors determined continuous economic development of each state is to accelerate the process of democratization and to form completion mechanisms for the sake of development of civil society institutions and protection of right and freedom of human and citizen being constituent part of this process. High speed development of Azerbaijan in the last years, co-operation with the European Counsel, OSCE, as well as other authoritative international organizations specialized in the field of human right and freedom, continuation of juridical-law reforms in new stage is very necessary. Elevated values as humanism, esteem personality, 142


sensible relations to the citizen were stood in the essence of juridical-law reforms successfully implemented in our Republic in the last period. Some progressive amendments were made to the law; “About Courts and Judges” was passed new law “About Juridical-Law Counsel”. If we continue juridicallaw reforms, president of Azerbaijan Mr. Ilham Aliyev has signed decree “About Modernization of Court System in the Republic of Azerbaijan and Amendments and Appendix to the Some Legislation Acts”. In accordance with the decree new appeal and economic courts formed in the last period, started to work, eliminated several nuances, which were dissatisfied the people. Affairs, which made, reforms, which were done, and national support of the state were met with jealousy by the opposition of Azerbaijan and they strive to calumniate to the government by all means. Useless opposition shows detestation to the national achievements with the help of their newspapers, therewith they absolutely unmask themselves. But our people clearly perceive the truthful essence of affairs of state of head, Mr. Ilham Aliyev and highly appreciate. This appraisal has evidently shown itself in the elections (presidential, parliamentary, municipality) of all levels implemented in the country and our people will say “not” to opposition in the next election. The last 5th year successes show one more time that citizens of the country support the policy of President Ilham Aliyev in all fields. This is confirmed by the results of foreign institutions, as well as referendum of the local sociology centers. Successful reforms and improvement of financial welfare of our citizens show that there is not alternative to the policy of Mr. Ilham Aliyev and people will unanimously support this policy in the next election. Social-economic developments of the regions, successful execution of State Program were caused for improvement of living standard of the people. As a result of properly continuation of policy of National Leader Heydar Aliyev, it is already 5 years that “State Program on Social-Economic Development of the Regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan” executes successfully. It was shown great interest and attention to the execution of program in the last period. In generally, adoption of this document was found out the beginning of new stage in the development of our country, development of regions was arisen to the priority level of state policy. We would like to remind that it was deep social-economic crisis position in our republic under the impressions of different internal and foreign factors in the first years of our independence. In other hand, more than 1 million our countrymen, who were driven out of their native country as a result of Armenian military aggression, have settled in the different regions of Azerbaijan, therewith, the social-economic position of the country became more complicated. National leader Heydar Aliyev had started large scale reforms, found of decline of the country, improved the living condition of the people approximately. Our National Leader always paid a special attention to the development of the regions, on his own initiative, there were made more significant works connected with land reform, releasing from taxes of agrarian field, cleaning outdated dues, implementing different law and programs. Of course, the duties change in essence with the speedy development of social-economic development of our country. One of these duties is consist of provision continuation of economic development of country, especially acceleration of development of the regions. Just because-of this reason, development of regions was determined as the main mark of the social-economic policy of the government 5 years ago. The basic aim of program is connected with the social-economic development of the regions. In other words, main duty of the program was to rapidly develop the regions, implement positively the processes in the regions, improve living conditions of the people, and build service sector and infrastructure in accordance with European standards. The attention to the agrarian sector has been much more increased in the State Program. It is related with the improvement of food provision for the country on one hand and the prevention of unemployment on the other hand. It should be mentioned that at the moment 40 percent of the able-bodied labourers work in the agricultural field. It is the highest indicator of the able-bodied labourers in the economic field division. Efficient credit system has been applied to the farmers. Tax system has been improved in order to stimulate agricultural production. Service system in the agricultural field has also been improved. State has granted all-round aid to the export of agrarian products. The network of the industrial enterprises has been increased in the rural areas. Several measures have been taken in view of eliminating the difficulties in the agrarian sector of the regions. The period of the tax abatement for the agricultural producers has been prolonged till 2009. “Agro-leasing” stock company and its branches in the regions were created in view of supplying the farmers with new-type machinery and fertilizer. A great amount of money allocated for the buying of the machinery and fertilizer. The purpose of the social-economic course of the government is to make every 143


Azerbaijani citizen feel the increasing incomes in their daily life. Within last 5 years a lot of important work and progress has been made in order to improve social conditions and welfare of the population. The State always pays much attention to the refugees and internally displaced persons. The last tent camp in Sabirabad region was abolished in December of last year. Generally, 12 tent camps were abolished during last years, 54 new settlements and 15110 houses were built for the refugees and internally displaced persons. For this work The State Oil Fund spent more than 400 million manats. One of the factors positively influencing on the stable development of the economy are investments which have also been increased. The important point is that as a result of enlargement of financial possibilities of the state, internal investments have been increased more than external investments. All these factors show that the potential and investment ability of the national capitalists have been increased. Simultaneously, the increase of budget incomes strengthens investment possibilities of the state. As a result of this, favorable conditions are being created to restore the infrastructure which will intensify the development of the non-oil sector. Interdistrict and trunk-roads, agricultural products processing enterprises, construction materials plants, dozen of educational and health institutions were built or reconstructured in the regions. Currently, a number of gas pipelines, water lines and electrical stations were built in view of improving the communal services provision of the population. As we mentioned above, although some positive results related to the social economic development in the regions have been achieved, some problems still remain unsolved. For this reason, “Action Plan regarding acceleration of social-economic development of Guba, Gusar, Khachmaz, Siyazan, Davachi and other regions of Azerbaijan Republic”, “Action Plan regarding acceleration of social-economic development of Gabala, Ismailli, Oguz, Shamakhi and other regions of Azerbaijan Republic”, “Action Plan regarding acceleration of social-economic development of the city of Lankaran, also the regions of Astara, Lerik, Masalli, Yardimli and other regions of Azerbaijan Republic”, “Action Plan regarding acceleration of socialeconomic development of the city of Ali-Bayramli, also Hajigabul, Kurdamir, Saatli, Sabirabad, Agstafa, Gadabek, Gazakh, Shamkir, Tovuz and other regions of Azerbaijan Republic”, “Action Plan regarding acceleration of social-economic development of the city of Shaki, Balakan, Gakh, Zagatala and other regions of Azerbaijan Republic” were approved. The action directions were defined to eliminate important problems of the above-mentioned regions and to solve them until the end of the year. The dynamics of the measures mentioned in the State program regarding the main directions of social-economic development of the regions, the volume and expediency of work done till nowadays according to the measures show that economic development of Azerbaijan has been stimulated, social conditions and welfare of citizens continue to improve due to care and attention to the regions. The measures providing the development of education, health, culture and sport were taken; new schools, additional classrooms, hospital, polyclinics, out-patient’s clinics were built; existing buildings were thoroughly repaired; modern sports complexes were built. In view of strengthening the social support to low-income families, the minimum monthly salary, unemployment benefits, the minimum pension paid to applicants and unemployees, pension paid to non-workers and the minimum range of benefits were increased according to appropriate decrees and orders of the president of Azerbaijan Republic. Considering the above-mentioned we can come to the conclusion that the five-year intensive activity, its concrete and efficient results lay on the basis of the nationwide belief that Mr. Ilham Aliyev will be reelected. The economic strategy serving the national interests of Azerbaijan, stable development and improving the living standards of the people have been being realized for five years as a result of Ilham Aliyev’s expedient and pragmatic policy. During this period the economic basis of the State was strengthened, its developmental potency was formed. It created the opportunities for successfully realizing wide-ranging program and transnational projects in order to provide the harmonious social-economic development of the country. Under the leadership of the president of Azerbaijan Republic Mr. Ilham Aliyev the natural and human resources of the country have been directed to the development of the economy, the principles of efficiency and justice have been supported in this development and reforms have been carried out. As a result of this, the economy of the state has risen to a new stage and unforeseen social-economic growth speed has been achieved. For this reason, the financial position of the state has been strengthened; consolidated and budget incomes and expenses increased in comparison with 2007 and 2008, the guarantee has been created for the state to totally perform its functions. Besides the conception of social-economic development for 2008-2011 years and its main priorities have been defined. The part of the social expenses of the state budget directed to the investments is planned according to the long-term and middle-term State Program in the sphere of education and health. Large allocations 144


from the State budget were directed to the realizing of the State Program. Furthermore, the development of science, culture, art and sport according to the Ilham Aliyev’s orders and other resolutions are bright example to it. One of the main instruments of state control on economy is using the state budget for the investment purposes. These allocations are directed to building, repairing, restoring and reconstruction of social-cultural institutions which require a great amount of money in the industry, transport, power engineering, agriculture, infrastructure spheres, also buying main equipment and realization of other measures related with financial capital. In view of maintaining the social-economic development of the country today and in the future in the highest level due to internal and external resources and taking into consideration its geopolitical significance, the cooperation with foreign countries, international financial institutions, organizations, regional unions has been extended and also integration process has been enlarged. Azerbaijan took important measures in order to be a full member of World Trade Organization. Our country signed “The Agreement of Partnership and Cooperation between European Union, its member states and the Republic of Azerbaijan”. Azerbaijan also joined “European Neighborhood Policy”. State Program on “The socialeconomic development of the regions” transformed Azerbaijan into one of the rapidly developing countries in the world. During his power the president of Azerbaijan Republic Ilham Aliyev directed all his activity to the care of people and successfully implemented his social strategy. Ilham Aliyev’s socialeconomic development strategy, reforms which he carried out with great enthusiasm is brilliant examples of his higher ruling ability and perfect work experience. He can correctly value the objective laws governing the development of society and also he has clear notion of different difficulties and faults of social life. Because of these characters he successfully defined priorities of the new era. Taking into consideration the above-mentioned achievements, we can consider that last years have been very important in our history in the sphere of national state and economy construction. One of the priorities of the Government is the long-term and middle-term perspectives and their adequacy for providing dynamic development and it is a major part of efficient policy of the Government. All the above-mentioned achievements, including 2008 prove that President Ilham Aliyev’s socialeconomic course has no alternatives. This policy is a real opportunity for improving living standarts of Azerbaijan people; forming civil, stable society which is based on national existence and secular values. One of the purposes of the economic reforms carried out in the country is creating favorable conditions for proprietor activity of the people and eliminating bureaucratic obstacles. The establishment of special economic zones plays an important role as progressive economic means in the social-economic and dynamic development of the country. According to the successful oil strategy our country extends internal investments, highly appreciates the modernization of non-oil sector and the increase of infrastructure opportunities. Besides Azerbaijan takes important measures to derive benefits from new economic factors which were justified in the world experience. Rapid development observed in the economic and social life of the country has been continued also in 2008 and accompanied by new achievements. According to the macroeconomic indicators of the gained achievements Azerbaijan is among progressive countries of the world for its development speed. Thus understanding real results of nationwide leader Haydar Aliyev’s policy which brings prosperity to each member of this country and provides security and stability, millions of electors desire the continuation of this course. Our people are looking forward to October of 2008 – the date of election when the actual support will be realized. New energetic leader with his inexhaustible intellectual potential successfully continues nationwide leader Haydar Aliyev’s political and development course. There is a strong belief in society that in October of 2008 Azerbaijani people will vote for Haydar Aliyev’s policy and it’s worthily continuation, light future, stability, peace and prosperity. For these reasons, Ilham Aliyev will be elected the president Azerbaijan Republic for the next period. From President Ilham Aliyev’s speech in the IV Congress of NAP: “Our future plans are quite obvious. We shall continue regional development program in next 5 years. Major part of infrastructure projects should be completed. It should be established perfect social infrastructure in Azerbaijan. In a word, we shall do our best for all-round development of our country and we have necessary financial opportunities for it… Azerbaijan can be an example for other countries. Because we know what we want and we know what purposes we are going to achieve. Our policy is clear, our steps are in the right direction and our aim is to strengthen our country and its position in the world. Our policy is Haydar Aliyev’s policy. Our support is Azerbaijani people and the nation is the source of power. We rely upon Azerbaijani people. Our ideology is Azerbaijanism, statehood and independence ideology. It unites the whole society and we are on the successful way. 145


Rabitə dünyası.-2008.-1 sentyabr.-N28.-S.28-30.

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Life in Karabakh the late 19th and early 20th centuries Dr. Hasan Quliyev & Acad. Teymur Bunyadov Home to the Karabakh horse and several breeds of sheep, Karabakh has long been a centre of agriculture in Azerbaijan. Handicrafts such as silk and carpet weaving developed on the back of agriculture while other crafts such as jewellery making also flourished. In the first of two articles Dr Hasan Quliyev and Academician Teymur Bunyatov look in more detail at the way of life in Karabakh in the 19th and early 20th centuries. AGRICULTURE Three types of agriculture developed in Karabakh from ancient times to suit its diverse landscape and economic needs: stock-rearing dominated in the upland areas, where the conditions were best suited to it, arable farming in the foothills and stock-rearing, sericulture and arable farming in the plains. ARABLE FARMING Field-crop cultivation was the most widespread method of arable farming with cereals (wheat, barley, millet and rice) the main agricultural output. Various tools for arable fanning, including ploughs pulled by oxen, were developed to work the very fertile ground and rotate the crops. Simple ploughs - different types of khish or wooden plough were used with iron ploughshares (gavakhin) of varying sizes. Archaeological excavations in Azerbaijan show that wooden ploughs were used approximately in the Bronze Age, that is, in the late 2nd millennium ВС. These tools were similar to those used by ancient Middle Eastern peoples (Sumerians, Babylonians and Assyrians) and around the Mediterranean. 2. Ploughs with a shaft - ulamali khish - were used mainly in the uplands (the southern flanks of the Lesser Caucasus). They were also used to prepare rice fields, that is, swampy soil. 3. The larger wooden plough or kotan was widely used in Karabakh as well as in the rest of Azerbaijan (qara kotan, aghir kotan, aghaj kotan etc.). This plough had to be pulled by eight to ten bullocks, so not all peasants could afford this type of plough. Peasants, therefore, often resorted to a combined plough (yighma kotan, ortaliq, modgam). Since the end of the 19th century, different brands of manufactured plough were gradually introduced into Karabakh's agriculture. With the aim of increasing crop yields and making more rational usage of land in Karabakh, different systems of land management were used, such as crop rotation (tala) and lea tillage (oran). Irrigation was an important factor in the development of agriculture in Karabakh, especially in the lower-lying areas. First century author Strabo wrote in detail about the irrigation and fertility of land in Caucasian Albania. Today there are more than 40 settlements in Karabakh with names related to irrigation including Khindirkh, Boyuk Kahrizli (Great Springs) and Kahrizlar (Springs). The sources of water were rivers and springs (kahriz). There were also various irrigation systems: ditches (arkh), floods (basar, basma), holes (chala) and subsoil irrigation (torpaq alti). Harvesting also took various forms in Karabakh, as in the whole of Azerbaijan: pulling up by hand (yolma), harvesting with a scythe (karanti), a sickle (oraq) or a serrated sickle (chin). After the harvest the sheaves were taken to the threshing-floor, laid in large stacks of different sizes (khara, qosha khara, kul khara) and threshed; everyone joined in the threshing (imacilik) or it was done by hired labour (muzdlu атак). The sheaves were carried on two-wheeled carts (araba), sledges (khizak) and carts of different sizes (takma araba). Mills were located near houses. Different methods of threshing were used (with sticks - chomaq or by letting cattle walk over the scattered sheaves), but the most popular and efficient method of threshing was the use of wooden threshing boards (takval, qoshaqaval), to which flints and cast-iron teeth (charpanakh) were fastened. Horses and occasionally bullocks were harnessed to the threshing boards. The threshed grain was kept in underground storage (chapar quyu), in large wooden tubs (kandi), large linen sacks (chuval) and leather sacks (dagarchin). Two kinds of mill (deyirman) were used to produce flour (un): the common Caucasian type of water mill and what are known as Russian (or Molokan) mills with a vertical wheel, set in motion by a steady stream of water. FRUIT AND SILK 147


Horticulture in Karabakh was practised mainly in Jabrail, Shusha and other districts. Fruit growing was developed widely. Mixed orchards were created, where apples, pears, plums, quince, apricots, peaches, cherries, date plums, cherry plums, pomegranates and other fruit grew together. Viticulture was also a main branch of agriculture in Karabakh. In the 19th century in Karabakh, as in the rest of Azerbaijan, sericulture was divided into several separate stages: mulberry-growing (tutchuluq), silkworm-breeding (baramachiliq), silk-spinning (ipak sarima) and silk-weaving (ipaktokhuma). The silkworms raised were of different kinds: Baghdadi, Japanese, French, Italian and others. Local breeds such as Muslim barama or Turkish barama were also raised. SHEEP The other main sphere of agriculture in Karabakh was livestock-raising. The landscape and favourable climatic conditions of Karabakh have provided large summer and winter pastures since ancient times, which has led to various kinds of stock-raising. The largest pastures in Azerbaijan as well as the whole South Caucasus were the Karabakh summer pastures. They lay in Javanshir, Shusha, Jabrail and Zangazur regions. The main methods of livestock-raising were the use of remote pastures and the use of winter stabling coupled with summer alpine pasturing. Sheep were raised for their meat and wool and as blood stock and horses were bred. The term tarakama (a stock-rearing nomad) was widely applied to stock breeders in general but the terms elat and obachiliq were also used. In spite of the presence of pastures, attention was also paid to dry feed (alaf) and garden, long-fallow and forest hayfields (bichanak) were used. The sheep bred in Karabakh were the local fat-tail and coarse wool breeds and they were quite different in quality and appearance. The Karabakh breeds were special amongst the dozens of sheep breeds in Azerbaijan in the 19th century. They were widespread in the Shusha, Javanshir, Jabrail and Zangazur regions and a distinctive dark-brown colour. Other breeds were also kept - the boza in Shusha and girda quyruq (literally round tail), qaradolaq, xeyerik, dimkh, shal-pakh and balbas in lowland Karabakh. KARABAKH HORSES Karabakh was Azerbaijan's main horse-breeding region. The rich experience and hard work of many Azerbaijani generations created the Karabakh breed of horse. Gravestones in the Mil steppe (in the village of Peyghambar and elsewhere) from the 9th and 10th centuries have images of local golden brown Karabakh racers, known as sarilar in the Near East and Russia. They were as famous as Arabian horses and similar to Nubian horses. Mention of the Karabakh breed of horse can be found in Russian historical literature after the Russian conquest of Azerbaijan. Historians Simonov and Marder wrote, "The Karabakh breed bears a great similarity to the noble Arabian and Persian breeds, from which the former were probably descended. I assume that the Karabakh breed is the result of the crossing of Arabian (and Persian) hoses with Turkmen ones." Other breeds of horse were also raised in Karabakh including the maymun (which means happiness in Arabic and was called meymun in Azerbaijani), qarni yirtiq (torn stomach), almaz (uncaught) and jeyran (gazelle). These horses had coats of the colour narinj (chestnut). Karabakh horses were in great demand among Russian officials and officers serving in the Caucasus. Russian poet Alexander Pushkin wrote: "Young Russian officials rode on Karabakh stallions." Other breeds were bred from the Karabakh horse. S.P. Urusov wrote that "The Karabakh horse has the same meaning for Asian horse-breeding as the thoroughbred racehorse for European breeding." Horses from the herd (ilkhi) of the poet Natavan, daughter of the ruler of Karabakh, were shown in various exhibitions (at the Paris World Exhibition in 1867, in Tbilisi in 1332 and at the Moscow Agriculture Exhibition in 1896). They were often ranked first and awarded medals and diplomas. WINTER AND SUMMER QUARTERS The use of summer (yaylaq) and winter (qishlaq) pastures was carefully regulated in stock-rearing in Karabakh. The winter pastures were divided into separate small plots, depending on the abundance and quality of the grass. The number of sheep grazed on each plot depended on its dimensions. These plots in 148


the Mil-Karabakh pastures were named dolu (full). The nomads' camps in qishlaqs were called yataq or bina (literally base). Farm buildings (enclosures and shelters for stock) and buildings for the herders were situated there. The areas where the breeders stayed in summer in yaylaqs were called yurd. Karabakh shepherds stayed in different types of tent called daya, choma, mukhuri, кота alachiq and chadir. In oral folklore the terms daya and alachiq encompassed all the different types of tent. Domestic utensils were gathered in the alachiq. They included all the essentials for yaylaq life, including household implements, beds, dishes, churns, hand mills, spinning-wheels, spindles, griddles (saj) for bread baking, different troughs, copper pots, jugs and leather bowls. Accommodation in the qishlaq was similar to the yaylaq. Four kinds of milk were produced in Karabakh and the whole of Azerbaijan: sheep's milk, cow's milk, goat's milk and buffalo's milk. Most milk came from sheep and cows. Butter and cheese were made from the milk. Cheese was prepared from sheep's milk (qoyun pendiri), and butter from cow's and buffalo's milk. Simple vessels were used in dairy production. They can be divided into three groups: the animal kind, such as motal or animal skins and various wineskins - tajan, chalkhar, eyme and qarni and vegetable kind (barkhit, bakhachiq, chiq and others); clay dishes (nehra and other vessels); and metal, mainly copper, dishes (sarinj, qazan etc.). Different shaped churns made from different materials were used in Karabakh dairies: clay churns (nehra), wooden churns (arkhit, alkhit) and leather churns (i halkhar, tulum, karmish). APPLIED ARTS Karabakh is a land of ancient artistic tradition. The richness and diversity of raw resources (wool, silk, metal, clay, wood, stone), flora and fauna and the living conditions favoured the development of handicrafts and various professions from ancient times. The centre of craftsmanship was the cities of Shusha and Barda and the village of Lanbaran. Metal-working, dyeing, leather, wool and silk processing were all well-developed in Shusha and various craftsmen's districts took shape. Karabakh was especially famous for its carpets, both with and without pile. The Karabakh carpet school included three groups - Karabakh, Shusha and Jabrail - which produced 33 kinds of carpet, the most famous of which were baliq (fish), lampa (lamp), buynuz (horn), qasim ushagi (Qasim's child), talish (Talysh) and others. Shusha was famous for the production of four kinds of silk: chatraqata - a cloth of various colours which was used for headgear, bedspreads and covers; alisha - thick pure silk cloth, which was used for clothes; and jejim which was produced in two forms - qamiyan (striped) with raised, rectilinear patterns and obagyazar (striped but without patterns). They were made from end silk (from thread from damaged cocoons), from raw spun silk mixed with silk floss and from pure silk which was especially hard-wearing. Patterns were not repeated in jejim cloth. Sericulture was also developed in the village of Lanbaran, which became famous for its silk and wool carpets and especially its qamiyan cloth. The village of Aghjabadi produced obaqyazar cloth. Shusha was also known for its embroidery with gold and silver thread (kulabatin tikma) and beads (khirda minchiq). Articles embroidered with gold thread were part of a bride's dowry. The strikingly beautiful bashmaq (shoes) sewn with beads by the poet Natavan in the 19th century are of special artistic interest. They are on display at Azerbaijan's History Museum in Baku. These bashmaq are covered with colourful beads on blue and green flower patterns against a white background. Shusha and Barda were also major jewellery centres. Karabakh jewellers used different techniques to process precious metals such as coining, stamping, browning, filigree work and encrustation. Various filigree techniques developed in Shusha and were used to produce jewellery for the head, hands and neck and men's and women's belts. Leather goods were also widely used in Karabakh. A long, complex process produced shagreen (saqri), morocco (tumach) and juft (meshin) leather. Material from the 19th century frequently mentions saddlery. The following quotation refers to the making of saddles (yahar) in Shusha in the 1880s: "Local saddlers prepare only pack saddles and saddles for riding with accessories." According to official figures, 89 saddlers were operating in the 1840s in Azerbaijan - in Baku, Yelizavetpol (Ganja), Nukha (Shaki), Shamakhi and Shusha. Karabakh's rich vegetation did not only serve as food for the population, but also provided excellent material for producing simple tools. Wood-turning developed down the centuries to our day. Wood149


turning broke down into two main areas: carpentry (dulgerlik) and joinery (kharratchiliq). Specializations developed in wood-working, such as wheel-making, coopering, cart-making, wood-carving, basketry (sabat) and mat-weaving (hasir). Shusha and Javanshir regions were famed for their two-wheeled carts and wagons. Domestic items and utensils were decorated, such as scales for dry goods (chanakh), mugs, small trunks (mujri), leaves of wall lockers, wooden frames, mirrors and pegs. Shabaka windows also deserve special mention. They were made from small pieces of wood assembled into a lattice, with pieces of coloured glass inserted into the lattice without the use of nails. Shabaka and wooden lattices without glass were found in Shusha before its occupation by Armenian armed forces. DWELLINGS Ethnographic documents refer to various types of settlement in Karabakh: kand (village, country), Una (settlement), aba (hamlet), oymaq (small village) and yurd (stopping place, halt). Settlements in Karabakh were mainly clusters of houses, scattered farmsteads or streets of houses, depending on relief and geography. Clusters of houses were characteristic of the upland areas of Karabakh, while scattered farmsteads were found in the arable fanning and horticultural area of Lower Karabakh. Villages with streets were rarer, with most of them found along country roads and river banks. The emergence and development of different types of housing in Karabakh were directly linked to the level of socio-economic development, geography and local culture and lifestyle. Settlements in Karabakh can be divided into two types: seasonal-portable (temporary) and seasonal-non portable constructions; and permanent constructions. Seasonal settlements came in several types and had different local names: daya, alachiq, mukhru and magar. All the summer quarters shared the same form and were made from the same materials. Permanent winter quarters in Karabakh initially took the form of a paya, a simple one-room dwelling which was not collapsible. A paya was known by different names - paya bashi, yani achiq and oyluk. Another type of dwelling was the chovustan or chavistan, which used to be widespread in Karabakh. This wattled dwelling is also known as turluch in anthropological literature. In lowland Karabakh the lower part of the walls were built of mud brick, but the rest of the walls and the roof were interlaced cane twigs. Artificial caves were another popular form of dwelling in Karabakh. Artificial caves (zaga, dalma, maghara and panah) are an ancient type of human habitation. They were built with one and two chambers (bir va iki khanali). People lived there together with their livestock, but in the multi-chambered caves there were separate quarters for the stock. The caves were heated through an open fireplace. The entrance was closed either with a door of switches or a carpet without pile. Niches of different sizes, mangers, places for food storage and domestic utensils were built into the walls. Other dwellings in Karabakh were qaradams (dam, shasha oylik, torpaq dam, ev dami). A qaradam is one of the oldest and most widespread types of national dwelling not only in Karabakh and the South Caucasus, but also in many countries of the world. Anthropologist K.T. Karakashli has identified three categories of qaradam in the Lesser Caucasus. Qaradams had either one or more rooms and were home to large families. In all qaradams the floor was packed earth, covered with carpets without pile and in richer families mats (hasir) were laid under the carpets. A large ottoman (charpayi) was placed at one wall, where the members of the family slept. The daily utensils were kept on a wide bench. The fireplace was in the centre of the qaradam beneath a smoke hole which was also a source of light. In some qaradams a tandir or oven situated under the smoke hole was used for heating and baking. Qaradams were built of roughly processed wood, mud, mud brick and stone. Another type of permanent dwelling in Karabakh was the bagdadi, which is considered a step closer to modern buildings. A widespread type of dwelling was the taghband. From the late 19th century a second floor was built over a taghband for habitation while the ground floor was used as a livestock-shed. The place names Taghlar and Taghavar in Mountainous Karabakh are related to taghband. Most dwellings in Karabakh had one or more rooms and one or two storeys and were square or a U shape. They had local names such as otaq, imarat and agh otaq. The main construction materials were mud brick (chiy karpij, ayi balasi), red brick (qizil karpij), cobblestone (chay dashi), hewn stone (yonma dash), planks (takhta) and other kinds of timber, glass (shusha), iron (demir), tiles (kiramit) and limestone (ahang). Cane and reed were widely used in construc150


tion. Ordinary construction materials such as thin twigs (chubuq), felt (kecha) and wicker fences were used for seasonal and temporary dwellings. After preparing the construction materials homeowners would invite masons (benna) to build their dwelling. According to tradition, older houses opened into a courtyard and had blank walls on the street side. From the second half of the 19th century houses began to be designed with windows and sheltered wooden balconies in the walls facing the street. A veranda or porch (eyvan) was an essential element and sometimes ran the whole length of the outer wall. Roofs had different forms, depending on the construction materials: gables (iki chatili), hipped (kulafrangi, ombalali) and flat. INTERIORS A characteristic feature of the interior of dwellings was the shelves and niches of different sizes (takhcha, chemokhodan and yuk yeri) and fireplaces (bukhari). The richer houses had colourful wall hangings in Shusha and shabaka - a large stained glass lattice window that took up one of the walls of the room or veranda. Niches large and small were covered with curtains (parda); the wealthy families had expensive curtains, decorated with spangles, beads and embroidery. The upper part of the curtains had a colourful fringe (parda ustu - literally the top of the curtain), while the middle section was decorated with golden embroidery (zarandaz) and the lower section with zirandaz embroidery. In cold weather, homes were heated in different ways. Low kursu (chairs) or square stools were used for this purpose; they were placed over the tandir or oven and covered with a blanket or palaz (a kind of carpet without pile). Dwellings typically had earthen floors, but from the second half of the 19th century wooden floors came into use. Earthen and wooden floors were covered with carpets of different quality. Homes were lit with oil lamps (chiraq) with a rag wick and from the late 19th century kerosene lamps. Traditional multi-roomed dwellings in Karabakh had guest rooms with striking, colourful decoration. As money became more important in the second half of the 19th century and a prosperous section of Karabakh peasantry emerged, new types of dwellings appeared with high ceilings, many windows, gable roofs and a flue. The farmstead (mulk, heyat) had a simple internal structure, consisting of a dwelling, farm buildings and a hayloft (samanliq). The whole farmstead was enclosed with stone or brick walls or fences and had a double-wing gate (ala qapi), through which a vehicle (wagon, sledge) could enter the yard. The fences had different local names depending on the construction material (hasar, chapar, tapan, basma chapar and so on). The farmstead, which was both an economic and residential space, was designed to suit its location. About the authors: Doctor on historical sciences Hasan Quliyev was a professor, employee of the Archeology and Ethnography Institution of ANAS Academician Teymur Bunyadov prominent Azerbaijani ethnographer-historian. He is the author of the three-volume Azerbaijan Ethnography fundamental research. LITERATURE Narodi Kavkaza (Peoples of the Caucasus), Vol. 2 Moscow, 1962 Q.A. Quliyev, Ob okhotnikh orudiyakh i sistemakh zemledeliya v Azerbaydzhane (Hunting weapons and farming systems in Azerbaijan). Azerbaijani Ethnographic Collection, Issue No 2, Baku, 1965. Strabo, Geography, Book 9, Chapter 4. L. Simonov and I. Marder Loshadi (konskiye porodi), (Horses [Thoroughbreds]), Paris, 1895. A.S. Pushkin, Puteshestviye v Arzerum (Journey to Erzurum), Collected Works, Volume 2, 1937. I.I. Kalugin, Issledovaniye sovremennogo sostoyaniya zhivotnovodstva Azerbaydzhana (Research into the current state of stock-rearing in Azerbaijan), Volume 5, Baku, 1930 Georgian Central State Archive International symposium on oriental carpets, thesis and papers, Baku, 1983. SMOMPK, 9th issue A.S. Vartapedov, Ocherk zhilish i kadrov Nagornogo Karabakha (Outline of dwellings and people of Mountainous Karabakh), material from a visit to Karabakh in summer 1933, AzFAN, Baku 1936 Visions of Azerbaijan.-2008.-№3.-S.42-52. 151


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The camparative analyses of understanding of a sivil society idea in Europe and Azerbaijan Dilara Muslim-zade Prospects and problems of the idea of a civil society in Azerbaijan cause a special interest in the Azerbaijan political philosophy and among publicists. Prospects of the idea of a civil society are connected with presence and prospects of the consciousness differentiating these constructs. Ignoring of these questions assumes that only sole creation of political and economic institutions is capable to change consciousness of a commonality, irrespective of its values and priorities, as though recognizing that national consciousness is sluggish. Thus, such a position brings to that in public consciousness is formulated an attitude to public consciousness as to a monolithic phenomenon, which is static and passive. That is why it is necessary to understand consciousness of the nation as a configuration or mutual relations of various types of consciousness, to try to comprehend ways of transformation of the idea of a civil society in "mainstream" consciousness of, at least, one layer of the society. The analysis of actions and consciousness of political elite in politics and economy testifies that they are inconsistent, but it realizes its own economic interest and is not capable to radically hinder the differentiation of interests and consciousnesses. In our opinion, the comprehension of the importance of this differentiation in the philosophical reflection does give a push to the development of ideas of a civil society and searches of an adequate legal and political-economic model for the social development. But the formulation of such approach becomes possible only with comprehending how in the procedural sense of the word in the western philosophy there was formed an idea about the importance of the differentiation of interests and consciousness, and the necessity of a search of ways for their subsequent nonviolent (within the framework of morals and law) consolidation. The analysis of the formation of the idea of a civil society brings to a conclusion, that the civil society begins with differentiation of the state and public life, distinction of the common and private interest, differentiation of law, religion, morality and individual morals. Problems of the differentiation of public, state and private life actualize problems of necessary (or sufficient) consolidations on the part of the state, not canceling public, corporate, individual freedoms and variants of public consolidation. Actually, the question for the Azerbaijani consciousness now stands so: whether the idea of a civil society is possible without a special "sacred" attitude of authority and citizens to a private property that is to an individual freedom and choice. In Azerbaijan a political and economic differentiation is taking place, private interests are (very slowly) formed and removed beyond the framework of shadow economy. And though above mentioned values are not recognized by public, corporate and individual consciousness so far, yet tendencies have come to light, and they are directed to the further differentiation. The sociological survey we have carried out among the townspeople, the middle class, oppositional political forces, managers, scientists, students testify that the consciousness of these layers is possible to designate as protocivil consciousness to which these ideas are close, but they collide inside themselves by the conflict of private interests and concepts (myths) of public consciousness. The civil society taken as a philosophical, political-economic and moral concept is the answer to challenges of the very consciousness to itself, its aspiration to cooperation, instead of confrontations. Its aspiration to cooperation also causes reconsideration of many absolute concepts of type: truth, morals, justice, due model of the state, fair authority and the price as relative, contractual, accepted by society through a consensus. There is an aspiration to this in Azerbaijan, but the complexity is that proto-civil consciousness perceives truth, the morals and justice as absolute concepts, that is why there can not be formed a consensus between various comprehensions. To tell the truth, the idea of a civil society is transmitted here from the outside, but the process of creation of institutes and values has only started, though public consciousness as a whole does not perceive absence of values and trust to institutes of a civil society as a challenge so far. Here the processes can be considered in a positive - negative context in relation to the given idea. Among the factors promoting perception and development of this idea, we shall note the following: D) transmission on the part of the external international environment (global economic processes, political-strategic conditions and relations, "spirit of time"; b) establishment of the form of the democratic state on the basis of idea of division of powers and development nation-forming factors, feelings of national identity; c) economic differentiation and comprehension of its inevitability, search of 153


legal and moral bases of vital ability in these conditions, as a degree of "modernizing" social consciousness; d) for a while, the tendency on the development of social-class structure of the society and understanding of conflict character of inter-group relations; e) development of elements of civil socialcultural factors; f) development of such political factors as interaction of parties of social-political movements and groups of interests, including organized in accordance with new political institutions, the consent of political subjects with proto-democratic procedures, political ethics; g) individual politi-calpsychological factors (knowledge, professional preparedness of city layers of the population, awareness, concrete actions and strong-willed decisions of key political authors). It is possible to attribute the following to negative: D) both on popular and scientific levels, insufficient knowledge about the history of the development of the idea of a civil society in Europe, prevalence of vulgar Marxism, frequently, critical conceptions about a civil society among basic layers of the population and, first of all, indifference of the education system to basic postulates of the idea of a civil society; b) preservation of sizes of shadow economy, which has led to real relations to remain a hinder to disclosing and verbalization of private and corporate interests; c) ideological shade of political and economic relations strengthens or recreates conceptions about the state as a device protecting exclusively integrated interests, and hinders its perception as a tool of consolidation of various interests; d) an alternative gains a foothold in consciousness of political public: either the common (national) interests, or private interests; e) the most widespread type of consciousness is still the patriarchal, its morals not supervising the sphere of political-economic relations and being indifferent to the legal control over them. The idea of a civil society is popular in the literature, which is distributed in Azerbaijan on political and philosophical subjects both in English, and Russian languages, a lot of it is also in the Azerbaijani language. Sociological polls testify that there are certain notions about the idea of a civil, society among active layers of the population, students, scientists and politically active workers in a greater degree, than teachers and businessmen. We note at once that distinctions in the level of knowledge about a civil society are connected not only to first-hand interests of respondents, but also with an educational level, political predilections, age (these moments are important). The analysis of data of sociological polls, the contents - analysis of press, legal documents, both governmental and oppositional, both in Russian, and Azerbaijani languages, scientific and set forth in understandable terms publications testify that the idea of a civil society is popular (it is fixed among the basic ones in the Constitution of Azerbaijan), but knowledge is not strong and not deep. In proceedings, as a rule, the idea of a civil society is connected to presence of middle class, civil consciousness, but immatureness of middle class as if predetermines localness of distribution of the idea. Values, moral concepts, the role of consciousness and individual interests in distribution of the idea are not taken into account. Let us note especially that between freedom and equality "equality" is chosen, between traditions and innovations the "tradition" is chosen, between individual and common interests the "common" are chosen and kept in the role of basic value categories. Naturally, all moments in economy, politics and morals, which lead to differentiation, or prove the necessity of comprehension of the importance of differentiation, are perceived frequently negatively, even in the proceedings. In publications of the Azerbaijani scientists, the tonality of the idea of a civil society is determined by the reference to ideas of Aristotle, Hegel, K. Marx, K. Popper, the reference to liberal versions of the idea is connected with the analysis of early liberalism of J. Lock, modern neo-liberalism (F.Fon Hayek , L.Fon Misses), ideas of the discourse, understanding sociology and cognitive psychology are almost not perceived. Such an ideological base results in the perception of the public consciousness as a passive phenomenon, the public purposes as an absolute reality, and the state as the unique and active beginning, capable to give intension to consciousness, actualizing and consolidating it. It is necessary to emphasize, that the Muslim philosophy has apprehended Aristotle and Plato as the author of "State", but it did not know his work "Laws", Marxism was quite tolerant to Aristotle, Hegel, but it has not led to understanding of the sense and the importance of the idea of a civil society. In our opinion, an ideological - theoretical comprehension of the idea is supposed understanding and knowing, that the idea of a civil society was spread in Europe through discussion between ethatist and liberal versions of a civil society, at that, for the ethatist direction of concept of a civil society, ethics of individualism were not conceptual ideas. For example, for Thomas Hobbes, Hegel and K. Marx it was important to enter the idea of a civil society in the concept of the state, and I. Kant considers the state through a prism of individual moral and economic consciousness, freedom and the concept of civil morals, civil development. Such a conceptual reorientation of the approach allows apprehending the state, if the major, but not the unique mechanism of consolidation of private interests, besides results in a formulation of the idea of legal regulation of the very authority. The legal state as an invariant of such authority in general minimizes integrating functions 154


of the state (the idea of the minimal government in designs of modern neo-liberalism). The understanding of sense and value of this discussion does help to determine what we name an "ideal type" of a civil society, a certain nucleus of an idea about primacy of the individual and public vital activity, feeling the need for freedom, property and self-regulation. The concept of an "ideal type" of a civil society should be transmitted in the society through educational programs. What is the civil society as an "ideal type"? This question either does not interest the Azerbaijani intellectuals, or they answer it so: private life of citizens, private property of citizens, while a legal state, civil consciousness, political pluralism sounds less often. A legal state is perceived as a democratic state, the authority elected as a result of elections, received the majority of voices, a state, which has adopted the Constitution, etc. The problem of legitimacy, the attitude of the majority to the minority is ignored. The role of the minority is reduced to the necessity of representation, while their interests and consciousness are not realized or comprehended, as is a part of the common interests of the nation. At that, it is ignored that the majority of voices and elections are necessary for democracy, these are not enough, the presence of the Constitution (laws) is necessary for a legal state, but it is not enough. The essence of a civil society is open in that it is not a form, not institutions, though nobody will deny their importance, but a certain value consciousness of the individual and the society, capable to apprehend other's distinctions and freedom, to understand the significance of a consensus of interests and its comprehension being in the basis of common interests and purposes. The civil society as an idea begins not from XVIII century, it does not begin with the development of bourgeoisie as a class, but in a certain sense of the word it becomes a result (conditionally) of discontinuously continuous development of the thought, plural consciousness, and discussions of ideas. It is the discussions that have led to understanding that in the basis of the social development there is a conflict of interests and its contractual resolution by conflicting sides. The symbolical words which define a civil society as an "ideal type" are: recogni-tion of inevitability of differentiation of interests for social development, differentiation of morals and law, science and religion, division of natural and civil morals, customs, science and politics, bifurcation of individual and public (state) morals. Let's notice, that as far back as J. Lock used the concept a civil society and the state as interchangeable. Processes of differentiation actualize questions of consensus and consolidation, the role of an imperious principle (the sovereign national state) in the consolidation and, simultaneously, questions of protection of the society and the individual from an excessive consolidation. This actualization, search of answers to challenges of differentiation result in division of economic and political spheres, division of powers, smashing of political elite, formation of political ethics, ethics of a civil society and legalization of an idea "nation - state", the idea, which Samuel Huntigton names "healthy nationalism", and we shall name it "positive nationalism". In modern western philosophy and political philosophy these questions make "field" of a civil society. The analysis of works of the Azerbaijani intellectuals testifies to recognition with clauses of the role of economic stratification in the development of the state, but the understanding of the role of the differentiated consciousness, or the consciousness, which have gemmated from communality, has not been revealed. It is necessary to recreate a positive image of such a consciousness as (embryo) of a civil society, political ethics, as a derivative mechanism of this consciousness. Such an embryonic consciousness of a civil society is the recognition of variety and multi-component consciousness and interests of communality. In Europe only during the Modern Period, there is an understanding being formed that the legal state, ethics of a civil society and political ethics appear norms and values association regulating mutual relations of citizens and those who are involved in the sphere of authority and politics as acting persons and forces. From now on we can distinguish and use concepts of the traditional political culture, which recognizes a sacred character of authority, accepts plurality and variety as weakness, regulating rights of the subject and rights of the authority by the traditional norms recognized absolute, and civil, multi-compound political culture - culture of "set - of - sets", culture of dialogue (G.Almond). The traditional political culture and consciousness do not disappear completely, but a civil, dialogic type of culture dominates in a civil society. The recognition of variety is a serious step to the domination of a civil type of culture. The analysis of works of the Azerbaijani experts on a civil society testifies that they do not put the differentiation in a basis of the theory of a civil society. The point of view, closer to them, is that the state recognizes some freedoms for citizens, as a rule, in economic and political sphere, and they define a civil society as limited freedom in the market and in political sphere, recognized by the state. They understand the market as a mechanism of economic development, instead of a phenomenon, understanding of its essence radically changing all life of individuals. In our opinion, such an understanding in turn hinders the modern philosophical and political idea of Azerbaijan to examine neo-liberalism. In the majority of works it is presented primitively enough, 155


as a set of the ideas combining economic freedom of the individual and need for the state to intervene in economy to support outsiders with the help of social programs or financing of those spheres, which cannot be financed by separate sponsors. For example, it is necessary to admit that the sense of the polemic of neo-liberalism and the theory of a discourse (Y. Habermas) is that directives about general (morals and law)\ define conditions of vital activity of people. Politics, economy and even public morals are estimated not from the position of profit, but from conformity to conceptions about the general. The analysis of works of the Azerbaijani researchers allows drawing the following conclusions: the role of political differentiation in the society is exaggerated, the economic differentiation is underestimated, and directives about the general on the whole contradict differentiation. The society is examined in a context of realization of the purposes perceived, as set initially. Therefore the recognition of any differentiation is frequently perceived as a concession to external circumstances. The morals and ethics are examined as spheres of due, original national spirit, which is ambivalent to politics and economy. Therefore an idea of protection and self-preservation of national spirit is stated. Freedom is unambiguously alternative to morals and ethics; it is not a part of ethics and morals, which essence is in an indivisible unity. Ideally, it is supposed, that both politics and economy should aspire to such unity. For example, scientists frequently enough use a phrase of this type: a uniform scientific politics, that is, a division into a uniform scientific and unscientific politics takes place, this means, that in the long term all politics will become scientific, uniform. But the sense of political differentiation is not in revealing a uniform scientific politics, but in a competitive representation of various (first of all economic) interests. The thesis about priority of the stable development is used frequently, but the question on who will judge what leads to stability and what destroys it, is left without an answer on the part of the researchers. In this context, serious omis-sion is that the Soviet totalitarianism is perceived in the sense of an imperial totalitarianism, a dictatorship of the imperial center, that is why it is not perceived as a danger to Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani patriarchal consciousness is not perceived as threats and challenges to a civil society, democratic and market institutions. It is necessary to emphasize that similar views, concepts and approaches are duplicated by mass media and make bases of dominating consciousness. There are questions left without any answer, what is the configuration of types of consciousness in Azerbaijan, what is proto-civil consciousness, and what are its prospects, the reasons of the domination of patriarchal consciousness, problems of the formation of political ethics. When there is no answer to these questions, the understanding of a society as one big family remains prevailing. Bibliography 1. "Vital problems of ethics and aesthetics" (collection of works). Baku, "Agridaq", 2000. 2. Hasanov R.M. "Formation of a civil society under transformation." Baku, "Kitab Alemi", 2003. 3. Mamed-zade I.R. Introduction to ethics. Baku, "Muallim", 2004. 4. Mamed-zade I.R. A civil society and national ideology: philosophy of political process in Azerbaijan. Baku, 1995. 5. Political ethics and some transitional problems (collection of works), Baku, "Muallim", 1998. 6. Results of sociological interrogation are published in the collection of works indicated above " Political ethics and some transitional problems" Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2007.-№2.-P.48-53.

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Ratings, prognostication and development variants Ilham Mamed-zade, Doctor of philosophy Our journal presents on regular basis results of the polls on political leaders’ rating. According to the given data, Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan takes the first place and others are falling behind. But another fact demanding reflections is that the second place, yet again with a decent separation from the rest of the pretenders, belongs to the first lady Mehriban Aliyeva. There are, probably, general tendencies that in the beginning of XXI century worldwide spouses of presidents want to become political leaders and show activities. In different countries with different cultures big groups of voters trust them. The spouse of the President of Argentina was elected the President of the country, the spouse of the USA ex-president Hillary Clinton is going to run for president. Some of our readers are sure that elections of 2008 are predetermined, others - that these ratings are, in fact, forecasting. It would not be desirable that people would think, given that election results are observed distinctly, forecasting is not necessary, or, that it is possible to be engaged in this job without preparation, that their importance is in guessing beforehand the one who will be elected the president or the prime minister. Results of prognostication can be used, and they are based on understanding and calculation of tendencies of development in view of problems (threats, weaknesses, negative knowledge), both of an external, and internal plan, revealing the dynamics of sympathies of public consciousness and preferences, influences, etc. Moreover, the use of not only results of ratings, but also of all set of forecasting materials (statistics, methodology, reflections, conclusions and recommendations) can help to strengthen leadership, to promote quality of elites, to take into account specificities of reactions of public consciousness in choosing ways and variants of development, to improve image, etc. Importance of prognosis for political leaders and prognostication in science In order to make prognosis and see what lies ahead, it is useful to be guided rightly in the present. Both politicians and scientists should use results of scientific forecasting. It is possible to say that hypothetical scenarios of development not so much anticipate the future, as provide an opportunity to those who makes politics to deal, be ready to any future which can arise actually so that politicians could be able to soften bad and to use good. And if a politician sensitively catching tendencies of the present should aspire to power and try to boost up strong sides of his/her politics, scientific prognosticators have absolutely different goals. Scientific prognosis envisages a skill to offer variants of development and ability to render assistance to politicians in ruling the country. A politician, seeing tendencies, fluctuations of mass consciousness, can be a leader. A scientist, forecasting ways of development, develops the science, complicates the reality, in a sense denies himself, his individual predilections as it is necessary to subordinate his abstract desires to opportunities, dictated by the situation. Certainly, there are known cases when the scientist familiar with forecasting leaves for policy, but success is not always guaranteed for him. It turns out that there are different types of use of forecasting. The use of his guess, intuition, skill to take advantage of the situation, the data of social studies in achievement of success becomes important for the politician, that is the purpose of participation in policy is entering a personal factor, personal interests into process. We are interested in the greater degree in scientific political forecasting. It is interesting that any science needs prediction of the future; there is even a whole science about the future. But, if the emphasis in sciences is made on the history of a problem, namely in such way our historians, philosophers, political scientists frequently work, then it is clear that the modernity and its variations appear not in the center of their research. We will not negate the importance of attraction of experience of the past, but history, including the history of various sciences, quite often consists of myths, and anyhow it is necessary that we should ourselves think of the future, having released ourselves from stereotypes. By the way, not all these stereotypes arose in the past; there are stereotypes of the beginning of 90-s. For example, one of the questions within these stereotypes is the following: “what is more important – changes, democracy or gradual improvement, evolutionary way of changes and realization of the advantages in today's life? The same goes to relations with Russia. Are they less important, than links with the USA? People want 157


steadiness, stability, and any poll testifies to it. From here, it is clear, that stereotypes of public consciousness should be operated. The more deeply the science comprehends the modernity, the more obviously probability character of any knowledge about the society. Therefore, it is clear that the most valuable is the least probability forecast. That is why it is necessary when researching the society to attach a greater attention to models and scenarios, which not simply extrapolate current trends to the future, but search for features of deployment of a process, which are not expected by anybody. Some people think that economic, statistical, sociological research allows foreseeing the future, but in practice the data of these works only create an opportunity of prognosis for the society. This thesis does not mean that data and facts are excessive; the talk is about ability to distinct prognostication in economy as well as talent to separate prognostication linked to the data from big forecasting models and scenarios. Most important in construction of development scenarios is to find nonlinear decisions, an element of creativity of the scientist or group of scientists as life itself is variant, multiform, influence of the nearest environment, moods, emotions, as well as both global, and regional processes on the public life. For example, if at the end of the 80-s in the forecasting work it was necessary to take into account influence of “Moscow, the Center”, the processes in Armenia when the problem was creation of forecasting model “Karabakh”, now information borders are so open that the whole world influence Azerbaijan, and also Azerbaijan receives an opportunity to influence it. Interactivity of the modern world should be used more fully and in all spheres, it should let, may be dosed out, even in sphere of internal policy and morals. The aspiration of citizens to stability is normal, but the openness of the world quite often destabilizes our life, complicates also conducting forecasting works. All of us face with the processes demanding comprehension, unexpected inherently in world politics, in economic, etc. It is necessary to take into account also that the country is in geopolitical space where changes are still expected. If we had had traditions in prognostication, there would have been more help from scientists, for a while all is simple in this sphere: expensive oil prices are good for the country, or expensive oil prices are bad for the country. It is possible to characterize the most part of our prognostication by approximately these words. We remember, at the beginning of the 90-s the forecasting model on technique “Delphi” got to us, which the Americans had used in the 70-s, and it helped us to cope with many questions of the initial stage of the forecasting work. These reflections bring us to that it is necessary to see some moments in our consciousness, preventing consolidation of prognostics. And these conclusions are connected with our operational experience in forecasting. First, forecasting scientists, or groups of scientists should work on the solution of a problem, instead of promotion and political career. Certainly, scientists are the same people like all others and want promotion, but very often scientists are ready to exchange a scientific career for a political one. In that case, they do not forecast, but try to please the research customer. Second, the research customer should want to receive a real result, a vision of a real, instead of an embellished picture. Thirdly, prognostics should be not ideological, but scientific, in its basis there should be methodology. Though we shall not deny the fact either that ideological questions are not alien to social science. Fourthly, the national interest is still considered by our analysts as imposing of their own comprehension of interest to the rest, instead of achieving a consensus. At the initial stage there may be consensus with some groups. Fifthly, there are few interdisciplinary research conducted in our science. As a rule, philosophers have poor knowledge of history. The same we can say about historians: they are poorly informed about philosophy. Jointly they understand economy and policy badly. There is a shortage in the latest forecasting literature. Naturally, it is also necessary for representatives of various sciences to understand each other if they want to create a forecasting group. In this work experts have serious importance also, and for various reasons they are hardly ever ready to work with scientists. Even the most elementary methodology of forecasting assumes the participation of experts who participates in decisionmaking. Quite often it happens also so, that these experts supervise the work of forecasters and bring in it their desires and “dreams”. Methodology of prognostication In any forecasting project time horizons of the forecast should be highlighted: short-term or midterm. For example, speaking about Azerbaijan, one should carry out a short-term forecast till 2008 and presumably till 2010, taking into account that the presidential elections will be held in 2008, and elections 158


of Parliament in 2010. Let’s recollect that during the Soviet time there were both a 5-year planning and a long-term planning. Therefore in Azerbaijan we should be engaged seriously in the work of a mid-term planning, at least, till 2015. All of us know, for example that by that time our oil incomes will start to fall and conducting mid-term, long-term forecasts will allow to be ready to unexpected events of the nearest future. Plenty of unexpectedness will be during this period in the foreign policy. For example, the triangle USA - Iran - Russia is capable to bring surprises for our space and the country, etc. For the organization of forecasting, it is necessary, first of all, to pay attention to the methodological base of work. At approach to scenarios, it is necessary to get determined not only with factors, which will influence the realization of different variant, but also with key certainties and uncertainties. The future is vague. However, on the base of certainties, having a sufficiently long-term character, it is possible to describe tendencies, some “waves” of development. For example, let’s recollect how western analytics wrote about “three waves of democracy”, or F. Fukuyama saw “the end of the history” and the triumph of liberalism. In any case, it is clear that tendencies, waves can be short, or long. So, known and nowadays already late American analyst G. Kan at the end of the 60-s calculated 13 basic tendencies which, in his opinion, would reveal the general repeated tendency of development of the world up to XXII century. Proceeding from this, it is possible to assume some tendencies which will take place in the world and in Azerbaijan till 2015, or even further which should be taken into account in the construction of scenarios, projections of development for Azerbaijan. In the world, for example, globalization will be combined with the development of national cultures, but with decrease of the importance of the state beginning in culture. Decreasing of the importance is not weakening of administrative potential of the state, more likely, the question is efficiency of the state, refusing from some functions. There will be growing of the importance and accumulation of scientific and technical knowledge, strengthening of rates of development, bent for individual freedom will amplify. The influence of elites - not only political and bureaucratic-, but elites of civil societies, scientific societies will increase, rates of urbanization will increase, mega-cities expect prosperity, in the certain prospect crude oil prices etc. will grow. In Azerbaijan, for example, first, the civil society hardly will become advanced up to such a degree that it will be elite, or the science hardly will take a place appropriate to it in a short-term prospect. The assumption that the bureaucratic elite will dominate over a society, and the development of the country will depend on its initiatives looks real also. But in economy there can be serious breakthrough. On the one hand, it will be connected to the strengthening of national companies, the neighbors’ market penetration, on the other hand, it will be necessary to raise the level and quality of life. In our opinion, (we wrote about it in the third number of our journal), the middle class in Azerbaijan will become a certain force and it will be necessary to take into account interests of this class. Second, the significance of processes in Islam will rise and much will depend on how the process of liberalization will be developing in Islam. Jayhun Mollazade and I wrote about this problem in our joint article published in the first three issues of our journal. Thirdly, the definiteness connected to inertial processes takes place. They are brightly expressed in the fact that Azerbaijan depends on prices on oil, on gas and oil transit. They bring in big positives for the country also even by way of popularity in the world, but it is necessary to take into account their negative image as well. It is necessary to take into account also other two potential factors: increase of competition in economy and manageability. These factors can hinder, get superimposed on each other, but in a reasonable combination can provide positive changes in the country. Elites and variants of development On the basis of specified certainties it is possible to create several scenarios of the situation development in Azerbaijan in mid-term prospect. It is possible to assume that among these scenarios there can be more and less probable ones. Their probability is in many respects connected to such factors as leadership, quality of elites and efficiency of institutes. It is necessary to understand that the great bulk waits for a strong leader. However, a strong reaction to these expectations can lead to contradictions with the course on liberalization of economy, development of the non-oil sector, middle class orientation. Thus, the base scenario of development, in our opinion, is connected to the ability of elites and institutes to combine in a reasonable, pragmatic measure these two tendencies contradicting each other. In this case other two variants of forecasting must constitute the break of a reasonable measure in that or another side, either a very strong leader and strong social policy, or a strong liberal economic course and a refusal of ambitions of a strong sovereign. At all these scenarios there will remain some general moments, namely, 159


first, elites will continue to dominate over the society, accordingly informal practices will dominate over legal procedures. In these conditions there will be complexities with vertical mobility from the society to elites. It is necessary to understand in that case the elite quality grows slowly, and for a while in our country initiatives can go only from them. Second, it is possible to foresee a rather low level of a social and political activities of citizens in all scenarios, but one should understand that in these conditions it is important to give conditions for an economic activities of citizens and to lift up the quality of their life. The coming years one should expect also a continuation of the growth of consumer expectations, consumer freedom (hedonism), culture commercialization, etc. The growth of an opposite tendency on restriction, strict Islam, etc. is possible as well. It is clear that serious research is needed in the sphere of mass psychology as the period when everyone wants stability, can come to the end. Let’s recollect that at the end of the 80-s all wanted changes, tired of the stagnant stability of the Soviet Union, then the weariness from times of “democratic” changes came. In public moods these fluctuations repeat with known stability. To struggle with “excesses” of these fluctuations is possible by improving the quality of vertical mobility. There ought to be many interstices (doors upward should be open) for penetration upwards of the successful, clever, efficient, the so-called social “lifts” should work qualitatively and steadily. Proceeding from the aforesaid, we note that the three scenarios will lead to three variants of the development. The reasonable, mid-term variant, also called by us the base variant, is the most probable, with the account of “petrodollars”, an advantageous foreign policy climate should yield positive results in mid-term prospect. The second variant is the scenario of a strong authority, rigid and not competitive rule can give a result, but only in the short-term prospect. This model assumes an absolute domination on the part of the leader, but imposes a special responsibility on the bureaucratic elite. It also complicates or even stops processes of vertical mobility and change of elites. Risks of similar domination consist in that any mobilization is difficultly feasible in the country going on the market way when consumer moods and expectations dominate among various layers of the population. The third variant of the development can be named an accelerated controlled development, a controlled competition. It assumes alongside with liberalization of economic life, the strengthening of political publicity already at the 2010-elections to the Parliament. In this variant the middle class, the civil society, the multiparty system develops quickly. But it has also serious risks, which are connected to difficulties of the initial stage (after 2010) when destabilization of the situation is possible. Morals, public moods and types of consciousness In the country where the public policy is not generated, the multiparty system is not developed, much is determined by morals and public moods. In Azerbaijan forecasting assumes using ethical methodologies and knowledge. It is clear that in public morals there are developing serious processes which are connected to reactions of consciousnesses in the country on processes in the world, collision of aspirations to the secular mode and religiousness, to knowledge and absolutism of belief, to criticism of traditions and protection of traditions, permissiveness and prohibition of personal freedoms, etc. And these reactions of a moral character cause the known political and public moods. The above-mentioned three scenarios, three variants of the development in many respects will be connected not only to a choice of elites, but also “building” of elites to the dominating morals and psychological moods. It is necessary to take into account that political, economic and public interests are not differentiated in consciousness of elites and the middle class that causes the importance of influences of moral and psychological moods of masses. In our opinion, in the most general view it is possible to speak about three types of moral consciousness in the country: patriarchal, traditional and liberal-individual (they are, certainly, more and more diversified, mixed). The priority of patriarchal consciousness will cause gravitation to a strong authority, the priority of moods toward traditionalism can cause other, more moderate variant of the development with elements of economic liberalism, and the account of interests of all three types of consciousness, most likely, will cause the most liberal policy of authorities that is the third variant of the development. Summarizing the aforesaid, we emphasize that projects of the future, short-term, mid-term and even for long-term forecasting are necessary for Azerbaijan. The due organization of this work will help to speed up the development of the country, improve the activities of institutes, synchronize the political and economic development of the country, etc. 160


Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2007.-№6.-P.10-13.

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Philanthropy: from social pity to corporate social responsibility Nazim Safarov, Doctor of Philosophy Notes from "Western Notebook" Many years ago I started two travel notebooks, conditionally named "Western" and "Eastern". Every time I take them with myself in business trips. They happen not so frequently, but I try to use them to the best advantage in sense of obtaining new impressions, knowledge or information. And the notebooks help to recollect details seen, little known geographical names or, say, names of corporations. It is quite natural that in the "Western Notebook" I keep the records concerning trips to the West. And looking through it recently, I came across the notes about the poorest American districts, missionaries, about charily and philanthropy, about those who receive assistance and those who help ... Charity and philanthropy are different matters We frequently use two close terms -charity and philanthropy - as synonyms. However, the western tradition of the social assistance and market system itself in practice precisely divided charity and philanthropy. They began to serve different purposes. But before to stop in detail on their functions, importance and the changes which took place in the West in sphere of charity and philanthropy, I shall note, that the scientific and educational literature of the post-Soviet period still identifies charity and philanthropy. For example, neither the authors of the known manual for universities entitled "Ethics" (A. Huseynov, R. Apresian "Ethics", M., 2000) could avoid that error. As is well known, there was no place for charities and philanthropy in the Soviet time. The prevailing ideology did not leave a place to "petit-bourgeois" practice of the charity "humiliating" dignity of the person and undermining the principle: "from everyone according to abilities, to everyone - according to work". Certainly, indications of "spontaneous" charity took place also during socialism at the level of separate, voluntary acts, however, it could not exist as a phenomenon. As to philanthropists whence could they appear from in conditions of the socialist "equalization"? But at market economy it has come to light that there is enough people and organizations ready to charitable and philanthropic activities, as well as eager "recipients". From the moral and psychological point of view this aspiration is quite understandable. There are many ways in which a person's life may come to have a meaning for him in itself. In the West the philanthropy has old tradition and there is a lot of witnesses of a disinterested aid not expecting for gratitude, especially, public. Precise distinction, between charity and philanthropy in the modern West consists in that charity is considered as the help, temporarily or for any period facilitating sufferings of the poor layers of the population, but not capable by the definition to solve significant problems. The philanthropy is the activity directed namely at the decision of essential problems. Here lies their basic distinction. If to return on our ground, from this point of view, for example, Z. Tagiyev was sooner a philanthropist than a patron of the arts (as he is frequently named). So, having created the first school for Muslim girls in the Islamic world in Azerbaijan, he made investments into the solution of problems of female literacy, change of the social status of women. His wide public work - construction of the centers of culture, training of the students becoming later statesmen - testifies that he was a deliberate philanthropist. Undoubtedly, the foundation created by the American magnates Warren Buffett and Bill Gates is a philanthropically oriented unit for it sets as the purpose investment in development of research on struggle against Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome and otherincurable diseases. As a known Latin proverb reads, "tempora mutantur, et nos mutamur in illis" - times change, and we change together with them. Now in the West the philanthropy has become a part of the corporate social responsibility (CSR). The corporate social responsibility means promotion of business providing a steady economic development. But, first of all, it is understood as an achievement of commercial objectives within the framework of ethical principles. As a matter of fact, this is a ratio of business and a civil society. Moreover, the corporate social responsibility nowadays is inconceivable without philanthropy. Now large companies cannot work successfully, if they do not have an action plan in this area. Besides an annual report on business, every year they issue reports on the corporate social responsibility. In relation 162


to them the public opinion encouraging or condemning a corporation is formed. But the most interesting is that large companies cannot refuse the corporate social responsibility also by virtue of economic reasons. So, you cannot be listed as a company freely selling shares at a stock exchange if you avoid the corporate social responsibility. That is, the very system of market relations forces you to be engaged in solving social problems, and not just to follow a lucrative interest. The level of development of mutual relations of the society and the market, citizens and business in developed countries are so nowadays. We see that now philanthropy is a market category, philanthropic activities are not only voluntary acts any more, but also economic necessity. Good differs from good It is obvious that the West differs from the East much, including, open public debate on the major problems of the society. In this respect the corporate social responsibility, despite of this, apparently, positive sense, is not only a subject of approval, but also of rigid criticism. Here critics are divided into two basic groups: the first considers that corporations have their action field not related to the social responsibility; the second proceeds from that social programs of corporations are no more than a manipulation with public opinion. So, the world famous economist, Nobel Prize Winner Milton Friedman and his supporters (the first group) considered that the task of corporations is a maximization of the profit of shareholders within the framework of the current legislation. As to the social responsibility, corporations cannot bear this responsibility. The second group of critics assumes that with help of CSR large corporations only distract attention of the society from social-ethical problems generated by their activities. First of all, tobacco and oil corporations are among such companies. Certainly, there is some logic in the points of view given here. Moreover, if to consider CSR from positions of captious morals, it is vulnerable. However, if to look at CSR as at a result of the development of relations "business - a civil society", it is a phenomenon of the positive meaning. Anyway, we see that in the developing countries there is no talk about any corporate social responsibility, business is frequently far from social subjects, and the profit outside of legal and moral borders has become a widespread phenomenon. Corporations of the developing countries at the best limit themselves to a holiday distribution of the foodstuffs to the poorest layers of the population. That is, in the developed and developing parts of the world both the practice of business dealing, and discussions on moral problems of business are at completely different levels. If in the developed countries the question is motives of activities, a level of ethics of corporations, in the developing conversation the point can be generally absence of any ethics and morality in this area. But not everyone can be engaged in philanthropy in the Wes either the most part of the social assistance is carried out as charity. This activity is also characterized by its orderliness. Here the basic welfare funds and organizations are known and have a corresponding image in the public, a strategic development plan, etc. Being in the USA and the European states, you can, for example, meet active volunteers of the charitable "Salvation Army" with its branches operating everywhere. This organization (the former "Christian Mission") was already created in 19 century by a monk for the help to the poorest inhabitants of London. On the post-Soviet space charitable and philanthropic activity have no such ordered character. Here in many respects amateur performance dominates. Moreover, the charitable and philanthropic actions carried out by commercial or state organizations, are not the actions accomplished on the basis of any serious research, or social monitoring. How to define, who requires assistance more? Why do we help these, instead of others, similar indigents? How to develop correct criterion and volumes of material aid? All these questions are solved spontaneously, without any serious argumentation. But these are technical issues of the rendered assistance. Non-technical issues of "good" During the historical periods before 20 century and the most part of that century charity and philanthropy were not market notions. The assistance to other people was basically rendered from humanistic aspirations. In such situation quite a natural question excited philosophers: "How do the problems which are not mine, become so important that I act, trying to help the needy?" Arthur Schopenhauer argued about it and made very exact following remarks on this point:" How does it become possible that the suffering which not mine, doesn't touch me, nevertheless, is so natural as in 163


other cases only my own, becomes a motive for me, induces me to act? It is possible only due to that I cofeel it, feel it as my own and nevertheless, is not inside me, bit in the other. Thus, it happens so as expressed by Calderon "there is no difference between a show of suffering and the suffering". But it assumes that I got to a certain extent identified with another, and, consequently, for an instant, the difference between "me" and "not me", hence, got canceled: only then another's circumstances, his needs, his grief, his sufferings become directly mine" (Arthur Schopenhauer "Free Will and Moral" M., "Republic, 1992, p.222, Russian edition) Albert Schweitzer, the bearer of the European culture who expanded his activities in far French Congo, was such a person. He was called "the monster of mercy" owing to an extreme persistence in the problems of gathering donations for the construction of hospital in that African country. Schweitzer, doctor of philosophy and theology, the musician and expert of Bach, has left Europe for the realization of a humanitarian project and treatment of patients in heavy climatic and sanitary conditions. Volunteersdoctors worked in his hospital without salary, only following the great humanist's call. Schweitzer's moral paradigm was highly appreciated by the world community, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, and his book "Culture and Ethics" became one of the most readable. Schweitzer preached philosophy of reverence before life, for him, everything that served preservation of life was good, and everything destroying it - evil. An important point is that Schweitzer helped people not so much on motives of pity, as according to strong convictions and the realized program of his life. Having moved away from vanity of the European civilization, he did not begin to call for a fundamental change of existence, but only built his existence according to the personal perceptions about it. He just created good according to his perception of good. Sufferings of others became his sufferings. Probably, the second Schweitzer will not appear for a long time, but there are now many people involved in philanthropy. Though they do not have a special philosophical concept on the issue of compassionate benefit, but the factor of a good will itself is already a moral factor powerful enough to cause respect of the public. Nowadays both private persons, and organizations are engaged in voluntary or not up to the end voluntary philanthropy. And, if the first, as a rule, endow a part of their personal profit on these purposes, the second distribute the help accumulated in corresponding funds, formed due to donations from many sources. "Kindness should be quiet" is a natural principle of a social aid going from the heart and sincerity. But in practice motives of philanthropy come to be the most different - moral convictions, a calculation that later "it will be rendered", social pity. It can be also of a campaign character or. be made with the purpose of other reward - political, economic, etc. It is stimulated also by the fact that in a number of countries businessmen are released from payment of taxes on the sum equal to the spent on charity and philanthropy. Such kind of assistance is often "noisy" and, certainly, newspaper articles, television reports bring their ideological mite in the process of popularizing this or another patron of arts. However, a participation in suffering of another person, as A. Schopenhauer wrote fairly, "should have a moral value, i.e. should be free from egoistic motives and for -this reason to waken in ourselves that internal satisfaction called kindness satisfied, approving conscience"(ibid, p. 221) "Pitfalls" of charity and philanthropy Charity and philanthropy should not discourage, spoil people, at the same time. The habit to receive a small sop (charity) and not trying to make something in order to change own destiny - what can there be better for a person's degradation? The same is related to a hope on philanthropy and to refusal of attempts to take the destiny in own hands. Who visited the USA, for certain, observed that in all cities there are districts, zones where live the so-called "lower lowers", have-nots. In different years and in various American cities I also observed this picture. Dwellings of these people are untidy and they live really awfully. The social assistance programs enable them "to make ends meet". However, there is to the fore another phenomenon - development of a dependence in these zones. People idly spending the time, slowly sipping beer from a bottleneck or hours playing board games is a rather widespread picture in such places. A part these people cannot work really: some - for the physical reasons, others - for the socialpsychological. The latter appeared in such a situation that there is no wish at all to employ them even for day work owing to mistrust to them. In the American cities on roadsides one can often meet individuals with a poster on the breast: "Work for food". There are also such who could work quite fully. But these people will give you a hundred arguments for an explanation of their way of life and refusal of activities. The social danger here is in that the similar way of life if it is long in time, forms morally, 164


psychologically disabled people, sliding in "the hole" to get out of which is already impossible, though physically, they can be good for any kind of work. Above I have noted that private persons and social organizations are engaged in philanthropy also. But the policy of the USA carried out in relation to their citizens - the small indigenous groups - can be attributed to the category of "cynical state philanthropy". Such sort of "philanthropy" is a direct way to a moral-psychological destruction of the rests of native peoples. The "state philanthropy" in relation to the American Indian ethnic group consists in the grants, providing it a living minimum and, thus, forming socially incapacitated people whose destiny has become everyday alcoholism. Trying namely by "a sop" to smooth down the historical guilt before the exterminated people, the state finally undermines the viability of this ethnic group. My observation of the stage props Indian reservations in states of Texas, Oklahoma, confirms that the life of the Indians themselves is more similar to stage props. There is nobody living in the reservations -"museums", here for a couple of dollars Indians can show you their dances or be photographed with you for memory. They live in cities, but their life differs distinctly from the life of decent Anglo-Saxons, Afro-Americans and others. If an individual is capable to work, he should work. Already at the dawn of 20 century this simple truth was well understood and put into practice by Henry Ford, the well-known manufacturer of cars, for the first time in the world using industrial assembly line. He created conditions for work even to disabled persons. Ford wrote that it was not the charitable mind to which he objected. "God forbid that we ever grow cold toward a human being in need. Human sympathy is too fine...One can name very few great advances that did not have human sympathy behind them. It is in order to help people that every notable service is undertaken. The trouble is that we have seen using this great, fine motive force foe ends too small. If human sympathy prompts us to feed the hungry, why should it not give the larger desire to make hunger in our midst impossible? If we have sympathy enough for people to help them to get rid of poverty, surely we ought to have sympathy enough to destroy poverty completely. Expel fear and we can have self-reliance. Charity doesn't exists any more if self-reliance dwells" (See: Henry Ford "My life and work" Kessinger Publishing, 2003, p.296) I share thoughts of the outstanding businessman: really, it is necessary to wipe out economic reasons leading to a humiliating dependence. Nevertheless, the reality is such that the society of common prosperity remains only a sketch, a certain Utopian social design. Therefore, if the state cannot provide a total employment, and if there are socially vulnerable layers of the population, charity can cease social tension. It is well seen in the case of refugees on the territory of Azerbaijan. In addition to the state help they receive big assistance from various charitable organizations and private persons. Due to such combination of support, passions-strain weakens a little among the refugees, for years remaining outside of the lands they left. However, this help, on the one hand, cannot be infinite. And from the other, it does not always appear "free of charge". As Vergilius spoke, "Timeo Danaos Et Dona Ferentes" - "Be afraid of Danaos bringing gifts". "Payment" can be not only financial, but also ideological. It is known that tens of missionary organizations try to spread under cover of humanitarian assistance their religious ideas among these people who fall an easy pray of sectarians because of psychological vulnerability and material deprivations. At that, the point can be both Christian missionaries, and Vahabis. The charitable help on the eve of every possible elections - parliamentary, municipal, deserves even a greater moral condemnation. "Ethical" over any measure candidates for "representatives of the people" widely use a theme of charity and philanthropy in their pre-election "propaganda sources" with an indication of concrete acts and addressees of such help. It is needless to say what is behind such assistance. Big problems exist also in the so-called informal "charity funds". Points dealing with gathering money for such "funds" exist across Azerbaijan in a set of mosques and places of worship. Being uncontrolled by public or government, these points are completely independent both in criterion, and in volumes of the help for the needy. Naturally, there arise suspicions in, whether the assistance is distributed in general. Here there is, on the one hand, a moral ambiguity of charitable practice which huddles under a religious "roof", and, on the other, - an obvious presence of the legislative "vacuum" creating a basis for selfish interest in this sphere. Nevertheless, costs of the process should not slay a social role of charity and, especially, philanthropy. The first, certainly, does not resolve social-economic problems and cannot do it in the literal sense of the word, but it is capable to ease the burden. What kind of expectations and claims can there be in relation to the small "screw" of the mechanism of a social assistance? The case is different in philanthropy. It is necessary, as in the West, with development of business to create conditions under which philanthropic activities becomes a necessary part of successful and large-scale business. But if we rely only on moral motives for solving social problems, we are doomed to failure... 165



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Globalization, modernity and national mentality Tahmina Aghakishiyeva Globalization is integration of national economies to the unified global system. And this is in turn based on distribution of capitals, transparency, openness of the world for information, technological revolution, liberalization of commodity and capital flow on the basis of communication rapprochement of developed countries, world scientific revolution, and international social movements. One of the most important innovations also brought by globalization process is that management of separate states depends not only on those who are elected or appointed. Besides the ruling elite, also the society in a whole, as well as separate social structures take part in the management process. Another important innovation is that the interstate frontiers become symbolic. It should be noted that due to modern transport-communication and information technologies no state feels now alone, in isolated situation. Thus, mutual relations of states have been greatly intensified. And this in its turn means growth of intensification of mutual relations between societies of states. Globalization process has turned scientifictechnical progress into a revolutionary process. Means or discoveries which yesterday surprised the most prepared persons, have turned today into a common case even for common people. Globalization has greatly strengthened potential of scientific-technical progress to directly or indirectly inflict damage on mankind. Not only people of good will and good intention use achievements of scientific technical progress. Ill-wishers and hostile groups for their intentions use achievements of scientific technical progress. The fact is proved by the grave crime committed in the USA on 11 September 2001. (1,25). Globalization today has influenced all spheres of life. It is also possible to feel the influence of globalization in the social field. And transnational corporations not considering state borders investing their capital in production where it is profitable for them arrange the basic motive force of economic globalization. Globalization of national economies naturally leads to transparency in a wider form. As for political globalization, it should not be underestimated (2, 48). International assistance, being another aspect of the globalized world, in spite of all failures has resulted in improvement of living standards of millions. The notion "globalization is neither a positive nor a negative one. It has a great power to improve well-being of the population and in spite of lagging causing the financial crisis of 1997, Eastern Asia, which accepted globalization according to its own conditions and advancing speed, has greatly benefited from this process" (3, 22-23). Let's note that even though globalization causes gradual weakening of national, religious, regional, and other traditions, it cannot remove them completely. Peoples, ethnic groups, individuals are tied to their culture, religion and national values. "As a result of creation of the world systems, the state is forced to share a big part of its regulating and stabilizing responsibilities with non-governmental organizations and enterprises" (4, 359). The strengthening of globalization process by the end of XX century is in major cases explained by a real information revolution occurring on that period. "Globalization is a philosophy of the strong, wise and reasonable person. In the beginning of the third millennium appearance of the force factor on the agenda of the international politics, and at the same time, necessity to protect and maintain a global stability, its importance in the context of negotiations make us understand that the states, representing the Turkic civilization can prove themselves as a force center in globalization process only in a single bloc" (5, 109). From this point of view, now for Azerbaijan it's naturally named the USA-Turkey-AzerbaijanCentral Asia project. Globalization in modern period has started to make a bigger influence on national mentality. Mentality is the most necessary criterion creating stimuli for learning traditions, ethnic right and way of life of peoples in a deeper and more interesting shades. National mentality being, first of all, manifestation of synthesis of social cultural values as phenomenon of consciousness, influencing on many fields of social and human life, arises in many measurements and characteristics. If it could be said so, it is an embodiment of spiritual and mind understanding found its reflection in intellect and will, in person's self-respect consciousness, way of thinking, therefore person's formed thoughts and ideas are not yet sufficient for practical politics. The main condition is their social realization. However, political thoughts passing through intellect filter ought to be adequate to mood of wide mass in order to get a strong support. As well as it must find a way to "mind and soul". And all these make important a deeper studying in the modern period of national psychology, national mentality being main conditions of formation of national self-respect consciousness. As Hegel has it: Nature makes us perceive only features of spirit crystallized in its logic, and spirit as a spirit creates a different nature for itself, creates a world of freedom that is a 167


state. This means the most super realization of spirit, its development. And really, a state being an embodiment of spirit of people is a world of freedom, manifestation of patriotism. Understanding of freedom is the biggest success of philosophical thought; freedom is an understanding of aim of motherland. The people that understand its freedom always build a state in accordance with its spirit of self-respect and dignity, ideal of motherland. Thus, a state realizes a people's ideal about happiness (6, 138-139). After gaining independence the Azerbaijan Republic made integration into the world its necessary task. International integration and relations established with the developed countries are inevitably resulted in reformation of national-moral values. In such case protection of national morals becomes an important task. Protection of morals, national values and national culture means protection of national mentality. It is also crucial to note that globalization is such a process in human society that has no frontier between states, among members of society. In the process of development and formation of social life globalization can cause emergence of problems of different nature.Today, equally with international integration of Azerbaijan with the West, its.international cooperation is the most important feature of globalization for our society. The address of our national leader Heydar Aliyev to the Azerbaijan people on the occasion of a new century and the third millennium in 2001 runs: "The main tendencies• of the world development are cultural integration and globalization. Mankind met achievements of the 20th century scientific development with good wishes, but globalization process often does not give rise to optimism. Prospects of this complex process, which is not estimated unequivocally, make us all think. Globalization must help to achieve sustainable development, integrity and managerial systems of states, removing of discrimination in economic relations, rising of the people's well being. It goes without saying, pre-eminence of the international principles and norms, evolutionary character of changes, paying attention to distinctive national features of every country along with commitment to values common to mankind must be a definable direction of globalization process. The problems globalization created for many countries, naturally, makes us think over" (7, 6). Thus, the great leader Heydar Aliyev approached joining of national-moral values with values common to mankind in whole as a global issue. The national-moral values gained by Azerbaijan during many centuries consist of national culture, national morals and ethics, national traditions and habits, patriotism and other human qualities. It should be noted that the purposeful policy of the President of our republic, Mr. Ilham Aliyev is being carried out exactly in this direction. In the activities of the President of the Azerbaijan Republic Mr. I. Aliyev forms an important stage in protection of our national culture and national morals, as well as joining of modernity in our national culture, history. The Azerbaijan Republic today has stepped to the stage of its rapid economic development. Achievement of economic development strengthens the position of our republic in the region and also plays an important role in solving its social-political problems. It should be emphasized also that the Azerbaijan Republic is also a participant of some global projects forming one of important directions of international integration. As an example of this, we can mention the Baku -Tbilisi -Jeyhan oil export pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Arzrum gas pipeline. Carrying out of the Program "Great Silk Way" on the restoration of the historic silk way, initiated by the National Leader Heydar Aliyev, is an important integral part of the sustainable economic development of our republic. Thus, as a result of a well-thought successive policy being realized by our honorable president Ilham Aliyev, our republic has achieved progress and social well-being. All these also mean protection and development of our national-moral values, our national traditions and customs, our national mentality. Notes: 1. Mubariz Ahmedoglu. Essence of Consensus Theory in Globalization Period. Baku, Adiloglu ed. 2003, p.138, p.25. 2. Aghayar Shukurov Globalized Societies. Yesterday. Today. And Tomorrow. Baku-Azerbaijan University ed. 2006, p. 192, p.48. 3. J. Stiglitz Globalization and Concerns it Causes. Economic Reforms Center, Khazri Express, Baku, 2004, p.320, p.22-23. 4. Yusif Rustamov: Basis of Philosophy (Lecture Course) Baku, Ed/ Azerbaijan University, 2004, pp. 499-359. 5. Rashid S. Ulusel: Globalization and Turkic Civilization, Baku, Chagdashoglu, 2005, p. 152, p.109. 6. Heydar Aliyev. Azerbaijan at the Cross-Roads of XXI Century and the Third Millennium, Baku, 2001, p. 6. 7.Mubariz Yusifov. National Leader and Independent Statehood. Baku, 2005, p. 212. 168



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Geopolitics: simple schemes and complex reality Nazim Safarov Ongoing geopolitical changes stimulated occurrence of very simple scheme, which have become popular in political community of our region. It generates often and sounded in mass media. Its essence is reduced to the following. Known events on September 11, 2001 made active aspiration of the USA to the world control, having approved the American practical politicians and analysts in an idea about overall domination in world processes. Means, that the USA have entered very important stage of the further distribution of the influence and the control, in spite of furious resistance of Islamic fundamentalists of the Middle East, the anti-American rhetoric of the Latin American political elite, and also counteraction of Russia to the American influence. With what this stage is connected? With intrusion into Afghanistan and Iraq, confrontation with Iran and the occurred geopolitical shifts in the CIS, followed after events in Ukraine and in Georgia. Consequences of "orange revolution " and " revolution of roses" have appeared and Russia had to leave illusion of "reintegration" of Ukraine and Georgia. Hence, "leaving" of Ukraine from the Russian control not only has crossed out the Eurasian ambitions of Russia, but also has stricken sensitive blow on geopolitical interests of Slavic "elder brother". Despite of energy dependence on Russia and other complexities of internal political character, Ukraine is irrevocably lost for Russia and puts problems of full-scale representation in the European political institutes, also as membership in a North Atlantic alliance. After " revolution of roses ", deduced Georgia on road of "irrevocability", it has entered as a matter of fact solving stage of opposition with Russia that has marked itself the further narrowing of a zone of the control of Russia on Caucasus. The conflict with Georgia resulted in an overflowing of the conflict from latent, with elements of observance of external decencies, - in opened. Moscow had to develop deduced military bases in new points, already inside of the Russia - Dagestan and KarachayCherkessia. But Georgia, after Ukraine, has made the hard choice. Georgia and Ukraine should get out of problems by mobilization of internal resources and a high degree of internal political integration. Russia in the given situation should continue a line directed on territorial infringement of Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia) and inspiration discontent of Armenians in Javakhetia. "Russian-speaking" Ukraine (the south and the east of Ukraine) will show sporadic discontent too. Dream of Georgia to join the European family with territory of 69,7 thousand sq. km, which was during Soviet Union, will be subject to serious tests. But this prospect will have intermediate term character. The forthcoming full representation in the European structures and institutes for Georgia and Ukraine in due course can quite lead to restoration of territorial integrity for Georgia and greater political integration for Ukraine. To doubt of persistence of the Europe and the USA on these questions is not necessary only for the political and ideological reasons. Incomparably more developed economy and technology of the United States together with global cultural influence in the world, will not leave, and cannot leave chance of Russia for "reintegration" of the "lost" States for the proclaimed foreign policy mission of the USA is those. But the reason is not only in the proclaimed principles. Alongside with the widespread anti-Americanism, in the world exists steady (from time to time subjected audits and excessively devaluated rectilinear intervention of the USA in internal affairs of other states) opinion on the West (the USA + the Western Europe) as a whole as the guarantor of democracy and at the same time huge doubts in occasion of ability of new Russia to develop democracy inside of the Russia and to promote its distribution on the Eurasian continent. Here is such approximately a train of thought on an alignment of forces and priorities in region and the world. This scheme quite keeps within idea of the further and inevitable distribution of economic and political liberalism in the world. Whether all are so simply and harmoniously? We agree that as the nature does not suffer emptiness, and also zones of political influence cannot remain "vacant", especially in a situation when it is a question of the young independent states. It is true that the United States have very strong political motivation and all opportunities for final "filling" the released geopolitical spaces. They have rich experience and strong will in these questions. To be convinced of it, it is enough to recall disintegration and breakup of Yugoslavia, about plans of integration of Kosovo in the European Union. Another matter, as modern "the liberally-democratic empire ", (here we use this term, certainly, conditionally, meaning extensiveness of a under control zone and strategic management from a single center) created by the United States, is going to carry out global management. It, at least, should consider historical experience of the sunk into oblivion empires. In fact all of them became property of history with help of weakened controllability of huge territories, revolts and loss of economic influence. An 170


example of the empires created by Alexander Makedonsky, Great Rome, and Attila, the leader of Huns or chronologically closer to our time Ottoman Empire speaks about it. The last, reaching in the north from Crimea, in the south from Yemen and Sudan, in the east up to Iran, in northwest up to the Vein and a southwest up to Spain, having existed 600 years, has failed because of loss of the economic and military superiority over the Europe. The weakened empire as it often happens to empires at the end, revolts and mutinies began to loosen. These revolts and mutinies became result of a victory of new ideas over others. Certainly, now time is other and technological achievements of countries put them above others on some goals above. However, a problem of effective controllability of the remote territories though is on new manners, all the same remains actual. The greater empire as said B. Franklin, as well as the big pie, starts to be crumbled with edges. However, foreign policy management in modern understanding already was beyond cleanly external management and influence, assuming a high degree of the self-management based on mutual coordination and a generality of interests with operating "center". As to Russia, the thesis that the West "squeezes out" Russia from the Caucasus, and Georgia "pulls" behind itself Azerbaijan on the West a little bit simplified. Russia (still) has big influence on the Caucasus; the part of this State is located on the Caucasus. If to leave behind frameworks a verbal peel, it is necessary to see the big share of political, economic and cultural-psychological interaction between two States and people. It is necessary to pay attention, but not be limited to understanding of that the part of able-bodied our citizens' works or does business in Russia. It is a lot of general between our country and northern neighbor and not only because all we "are from one Soviet overcoats", but also for the reason, that at us many similar features in charge of economy. There are many general tendencies in the politics too. Russia for us is a huge market of commodity, work, and investments. Also as for the USA the most convenient trading partner is Canada by virtue of geography; common language and mutual knowledge of consumer psychology, and Russia for us are huge opportunities. Benefits of economic interaction between our states are great: these are low, by virtue of the neighborhood, transport charges, mutual understanding of con-sumer psychology and structure of consumption, presence of common language of the interstate dialogue, close cultural stereotypes, etc. And if our foreign policy rhetoric is basically western, then in economy, in cultural and social life we, in many respects, follow the Russian standards. And the reason not only in the general historical past, it is obvious, that types of thinking, including, economic ones have many similarities. Even the balance between the state and the market in both countries with some stipulations also is very similar. The world quickly varies. That which was long habitual and comprehensible, tomorrow can appear hopelessly become outdated. It is necessary to pay attention to modern world processes, in particular, on technological development of the countries, which ten years ago did not represent a competition to the advanced West. Today it is China and India. Russia also is the perspective market; it is capable for "liftoff" by means of the advanced military technology that recognizes even in the West. Already today it has achievements in the peace, civil technology, based on development military. So "to leave" Russia in sense of interaction - simply it is not pragmatic. Other issue is the state interests of each country. Interaction does not assume dialogue to the detriment of the interests. That is, the policy of constructive interaction should be based on mutual understanding of interests. For Azerbaijan, it appears, the main question of geopolitics is not in that, "to whom to lean", and in how to keep equidistant position in relation to Russia, Iran and the West, developing at the same time elements of a political freedom and economic liberalism. How to keep balance and to remain secular? Basically the policy of balance between various forces is good in short-term and mid-term prospect. It is difficult for realization in sense of long-term, especially, in such region, as ours. And it occurs not because of lack of political skill or pragmatism. It is difficult by virtue of the developed interests of the systems having the various nature, political characteristics and vectors of development. Whether it is possible to remain in general "convenient" simultaneously for so various formations -clerical on the one hand, authoritarian under the maintenance and republican under the form - with another and the liberallydemocratic values developed in sense - with the third? How basically it is possible to keep the balanced policy in region where the United States plan to stop the Iranian nuclear program as the intermediate purpose and to take under the control Iran as strategic, and Iran, being the large next State in the south of Azerbaijan, is not going to turn off this program and blackmails all region? At the same time, Russia as a certain guarantor of operated behavior of the countries-outcasts, including Iran, does not consult with the 171


mission of constraining influence that has shown test of the nuclear weapon by Northern Korea in 2006. The moment comes when the large states push us to the answer to a question reminding a party question of times of a communistic mode: "With whom you, masters of culture?" The answer "we are ourselves" or "we are with all" passes difficultly. Especially for the state applying for a key role on Southern Caucasus (about it see below). However it is necessary to be ready for complexities. Development of precise policy in this question, necessity of observance of national security not so necessarily assumes the direct answer to a direct strategic question. We can quite not choose by a principle "or" - "or", and to answer, based on understanding of policy in spirit Otto Bismarck who considered, that the policy is art to adapt to circum-stances and to benefit by everything, even that is disgust. The choice of a political position at all does not mean following "passive conducted" after "the active leader". Political analysts emphasize, that Azerbaijan is necessary to the same West not less, than the West to Azerbaijan. But it does not mean that who needs the other one more. The West is necessary to Azerbaijan not as political "boss", but as a reference point of the advanced organization of the state and public life. In turn, Azerbaijan is necessary to the West not only for short-term Iranian programs. The West needs the safe energy program and diversification of risks and it does the rate on huge volumes regional, including, the Central Asian oil-and-gas stream. In all this history the main thing for us is not to get in a situation at which the quantity of threats can be beyond opportunities of management of them. Here this foreshortening of a problem is extremely important. Azerbaijan, as the modern secular state which is not denying the Muslim identification, in large has three variants of development unlike the modern secular states recognizing the Christian identification and having only two variants of the scenario. Two variants is or democracy, or not democracy (variations of democratic and not democratic forms can be very different). Z. Brzezinski, for example, under the attitude to the second (Russian) variant applies the term "static centralism", quite suitable to the characteristic of a situation even in other states. The third variant providing religious rule for the state with Christian identification on an expert is absent, or there are no Christian states (if, certainly, to not take into consideration the city-state of Vatican as the absolute theocratic monarchy in a rank of the sovereign princedom operated Sacred Throne). In the Muslim world there are not only Islamic states, but also constantly there is a claim of clericals for authority there where they are not presented to authorities. Turkey, for example, being the secular state, it is permanent struggles for preservation of good breeding and against feeble efforts from Islamic groupings which from time to time are brought round army - the guarantor of secular development. Now this state keeps good breeding in many respects owing to a certain agreement between democrats, Islamite and secular militaries. In this context clearly, that such countries as Azerbaijan, are not guaranteed completely against essential politicization of Islam and those are mistaken, who considers that here theoretical dispute can go only between supporters of the firm centralized authority and liberal-democratic values. As there are bases to suspect Shiite Iran on the one hand, and Sunnite Saudi Arabia - on the other hand, in rendering financial aid to the radical supporters in Azerbaijan. Even if we shall not speak about possible Islamic challenges since they remain only hypothetical by virtue of not so wide social base of title religion, it is necessary to be asked by a following question: "Generally, in what degree we can carry out management of foreign policy threats if we face external circumstances independent from subjective will of separate persons and people?" The answer to this question depends on how we shall be. How to become the key State on Southern Caucasus? Azerbaijan applies for a role of the key State on Southern Caucasus. Not "to outdo" of others, but to set an example of other consciousness, balanced development and success. For transition from the declaration to business and realizations of such arrogant aspiration it has all preliminary conditions, stimulus and opportunities. It is greater in comparison with neighbors of the territory and the economic potential is incomparable with them. The theme of oil resources became already beaten, but these resources feed ambitions of Azerbaijan. However the fertile grounds, climatic zones and resources are what allocate the State for the objective reasons or as often repeat, is granted Supreme. It would be much more interesting to clear a question that to dependently people and the state. Then it is necessary to be asked by a question: "what means the State?" If someone assumes, that it is only the system, providing functioning of various institutes, including, security, guaranteeing orderliness of a life of citizens, organizing economic activities, this restricted and. already "marked down by time" understanding of a role and an essence of the state. The State in ancient Greek sense is also a certain spiritual commonness of people. The understanding of the state in such foreshortening more and more gets into consciousness of 172


the advanced part of modern mankind. Therefore a question is the following: what do we represent as a moral generality and how much the State not so much as external structure, organizing our life and ourselves is capable of acceptance of challenges of leadership? A question is complex enough, but we shall try to answer it. For this purpose we have a weight of opportunities. We can take, for example, any sphere of economy and be convinced of very simple true, which still remains underestimated. Azerbaijan aspires to develop tourism, makes efforts for increase in quantity of foreign tourists driving to the country. It is not casual; in fact tourist business is an excellent way of earnings for the State that proves the same example of Turkey close to us, which takes from this business of 9 billion dollars per year. Another unattainable for us in terms of scale and opportunities an example - the USA, earning from tourism industry not less of 45 billion of dollars per year. In Azerbaijan opportunities are more modest (earned around 700 million dollars over 2006), but there is a precise understanding of importance of a matter, therefore resort zones here are developed, roads and hotels are under construction, restaurants with a good level of service of clients are opened. That is, the necessary infrastructure is created. Very important "trifle" "drops out" of a field of action of this infrastructure - the general cultural level of people. By way of illustration it is possible to result one of the telecasts, devoted as to you it was pleasant to development of tourism during which the express train-interrogation of foreign tourists on a lovely theme "How you spent your time in Azerbaijan?" One of answers of the western tourist has been quite expected for local residents: "There are many fine places here, but we did not feel in safety in Baku because there is chaotic traffic here and cars run into people literally... ". Azerbaijanis happened in the western countries well know, what correct attitudes exist there between people in general and, in particular, between pedestrians and drivers. Therefore concern of visitors is quite clear. It would seem, "detail", but it influences opinion about the general level of culture of people and the State and finally - on economy. We should recognize this and other similar problems and to work above them. The declared claim for leadership should be supported with corresponding models of behavior. Low ability to selfmanagement, unfortunately, is available in our country, that also beats on image of the State and potentially weakens it. The typical example similar to the test for self-organizing (including, the test psychological) is a crossroads uncontrollable because of out of order traffic lights in Baku. The degree of disorganization is so that all participants of traffic, having accumulated on a crossroads, prefer to not concede each other and to not move, than to try to change a situation and to continue movement. Practically everyone will expect external intrusion. The economic life also is very similar to a certain crossroads, traffic on which in many respects depends on participants of process. It is possible to argue infinitely long on a theme of the reasons of such phenomenon and to result the objective factors which have defined our low ability to self-management, however it is necessary to realize very simple thing: weakness in any self-management conducts to strengthening external management. And it always assumes that you will be object of influence, but not the subject. Very much the important point of economic development is concluded that it assumes also change of consciousness, psychology of people. Economic and technological development itself is impossible without institutional, behavioral and ideological changes. Without them new technologies will not be effective (similarly to a bulb to which the electricity is not brought - the potential is, but it is not used, as there are no necessary additional conditions). In due time great Hegel has written the high words about his people, in particular, that German people could personify idea of freedom most full. Many people explain achievements of this people only with this circumstance i.e. that in a basis of behavioral and ideological changes of people mastering the progressive ideas developed by the European culture lies. It is very important and interesting moment for all us. In fact, in this context becomes quite clear, that we have no point of return. There is no return to the history, which have become by property to forms of the organization of a public life as there is no reasonable alternative to legal relations in a society, supremacy of the law and the advanced market economy. Nothing less, nothing more... Today & Tomorrow. Azerbaijan in Focus.-2007.-№2.-P.38-43.

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Oil and gaz history Oil & Gaz Analitical Service Azerbaijan is the oldest oil producing region. Over its history Azerbaijan's oil and gas industry saw multiple ups and downs, attributed to a number of factors, both geological beyond human control and economic caused by human actions. The latest development phase began with the signing of a new production sharing agreement with a consortium of foreign investors back in 1994. The last several years saw a positive dynamics in oil production, expected growth of gas production, completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and considerable revenues to the State Oil Fund used to fill the state budget and support social programs. First mention of oil and gas on Azerbaijan's territory dates back to early history. The first written evidence could be found in the fifth century manuscript of a Byzantine scholar Priscus of Panium who mentioned sources of flammable oil in Azerbaijan. In the Middle Ages and later oil was recovered from the surface of several lakes on the Aspheron Peninsula, primarily the Masadyrsky Lake, from surface accumulations and hand-dug pits. In the early sixteenth century there were about 500 such pits around Baku. The Beginning_ Oil was used for heating, illumination, and for therapeutic purposes. We know that Indians once built a large temple for worshippers in the Surakhan area where associated gas was escaping to the surface. Oil from the Aspheron Peninsula used to be shipped to Iran, Iraq, India, and other countries. The beginning of Azerbaijan's oil and gas industry as we understand it today dates back to 1871 when the Balakhany-Sabunchi-Romany and Bibi-Eibat fields were discovered. Since that time oil was produced by artificial lift. With further development of well drilling technologies new fields were discovered on the Aspheron Peninsula laying the foundation for the oil and gas industry and stimulating the development of appropriate infrastructure and oil refining facilities. Field development dictated the need for an appropriate legal base, and having acquired jurisdiction over the territory of modem Azerbaijan under the Gulistan (1813) and Turkmanchai (1828) the Russian Government in the early 1870s abolished the state monopoly over oil production. In 1872, two legal acts were approved -the Law On Oil Fields and Excise Tax on Petroleum Products and the Law On Auction Sale of Leased Oil Fields to Private Persons. The first auction was held in the late 1872 for 17 areas in the Balakhan and Bibi-Eibat fields. The winners were mostly foreign entrepreneurs and only one Azeri company. By the late XlXth century, Azeri businessmen owned 49 out 167 companies, the major of them being the Baku Oil joint-stock company established in 1874. At that time the construction of new kerosene and lubricant producing facilities began, and in 1878 the first oil pipeline was built. These developments brought about an economic boom in Baku attracting foreign capital. The Nobel brothers and the Rothschilds greatly contributed to the Baku oil boom. They controlled up to 45% of oil exports from Baku. In the early XXth century Royal Dutch Shell bought the Rothschild properties, and gradually accumulated 60% of oil business on the Aspheron Peninsula. From 1880 to 1901 oil production rose from 343 thousand tons to 11 million tons exceeding the level of oil production in the US and accounting for over 50% of world oil production. At that time, the Balkhany and Bibi-Eibat were major sources of crude oil. Over a period of 1897-1907, the first 830km Baku-Batumi pipeline was built (200mm in diameter, throughput capacity - 1 million tons/year). Incidentally, the pipeline route leading to the Black and Mediterranean Seas was suggested by D. Mendeleev. The well known events in the first quarter of the XXth century followed by industry nationalization impacted Azerbaijan. In 1 920, oil production fell to 2.9 million tons notwithstanding the discovery of three new fields - the Pirallakhi, Surakhany, and Shubany fields. Before nationalization of the Azerbaijan's oil industry had over 100 joint stock companies primarily with Russian and British ownership operating in the country together with 270 oil production companies, about 50 drilling contractors, 25 refining companies, and multiple businesses providing technical services. The Soviet Period In the Soviet time, considerable cash and material resources were invested in Azerbaijan with the aim of reviving its oil production. More intense geological exploration at that time resulted in many 174


discoveries in the Aspheron Peninsula, including the Kala, Loktaban, Binagady, Karabag, Shongar, and some others. Production increased from year to year and reached record high in 1941 - 23.6 million tons or 75% of total Soviet production. That achievement has not been surpassed even today - (See "Production Milestones"). During the war oil production declined to 11 million tons due to relocation of Azerbaijan's oil production facilities to new oil regions - Turkmenia, Tataria, and Bashkiria. After the war, oil production revived with the beginning of the Caspian development in addition to the Aspheron Peninsula. In 1 947, the Gyurgany offshore field was discovered in the Caspian coastal water. Another major oil field Neft Dashlary (Oil Rocks) was discovered farther offshore and put on stream in 1 950. That was a period of intense geological exploration and multiple discoveries - the Gumadasy, Darwin, Sanchagaly-Duvanny offshore field, Bula, Peschany offshore field, Bakhar, and other fields. The development of offshore drilling methods and technologies was in progress, and offshore infrastructure was built. In 1957, a total of about 16 million tons of crude oil and 3.4bcm of gas was produced in Azerbaijan. Oil was refined at Baku facilities (the Stalin Refinery, the Novo-Bakinsky Refinery, the Vano Sturua Refinery), and the Batumi Refinery to which crude oil was shipped by the Baku-Batumi pipeline and by rail. In 1965, oil production level in Azerbaijan reached its second peak of 21.6 million tons. However, in those years the Aspheron Peninsula reserves showed signs of depletion, and as of 1967, oil production began to decline. Major development efforts were moved to deep water areas where a major field named April 28 (known now the Gyuneshli field) was discovered in the early 80s. In subsequent years new major discoveries were made - the Chirag (1985), Azeri (1987). and Kyapez (198) fields as an extension of the Neft Dashlary field. independence The collapse of the Soviet Union entailed disruption of well established economic ties and economic chaos in Azerbaijan. Most development wells were idle, exploration and development drilling reduced in scope, oil and gas production was rapidly declining. Oil machine building companies that used to meet 70% of the Soviet Union's demand for oil equipment reduced their output. Seeking to design a consistent government oil policy President of the Azerbaijan Republic issued a decree creating the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) in the fall of 1992 on the basis of the State Concern Azerineft and Production Association Azemeftekhimya. SOCAR's business includes offshore and onshore oil field exploration, processing, refining, utilization, and transportation of oil, gas, condensate, and petroleum products, and meeting consumer demand for energy, SOCAR is designing target and long-term industry development programs, acts as a liaison between government bodies, foreign companies, and domestic enterprises. The Company makes decisions on granting development rights to new fields, approves test-commercial production programs for the fields developed by other companies and development programs for oil, gas, and gas condensate fields. SOCAR is also responsible for approval of annual business programs of oil and gas producing companies, as well as crude oil and natural gas transportation and processing. The year of 1 994 was a turning point in Azerbaijan's history. In that year the first Production Sharing Agreement was signed with 12 world leading oil companies from 8 countries for the development of the Azeri, Chirag, and deep-water Gyuneshli fields discovered as early as the 80s. Other large and small companies began to show interest in the country and Azerbaijan saw the beginning of investment inflow. Subsequent years were the years of euphoria followed by disillusionment, conflicting forecasts and opinions, withdrawal of a number of companies, and sharp geopolitical debates. However, in the first years of the new century the situation gradually came back to normal based on a number of major projects. The year of 2003 could also be described as a benchmark year due to significant progress achieved by all major oil and gas projects. In addition to the Azeri-Chirag-Gyuneshli project progressing on schedule, it was the startup year of the Shakh-Deniz project and the long-awaited construction of the legendary Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline. In 2005, oil production frozen at a level of 14 to 15 million tons a year over the preceding 5 to 6 years jumped to 22.2 million tons reaching its second-highest peak after 1941. Accordingly, oil exports increased by 50%, Last year, the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline was completed, and in the spring of 2006, the first tanker carrying the Azeri crude will leave the Mediterranean port. 175


The Azerbaijan's International Operating Company (AIOC), operator of the Azeri-Chirag-Gyuneshli project started oil production and export from the Azeri field. The country's major gas field Shakh-Deniz will soon be put on stream. The construction of the South Caucasian gas pipeline to Turkey is in the final construction phase, first gas will be shipped to Turkey in the fall of 2006. Cumulative hydrocarbon production in Azerbaijan over its entire history amounts to 1462 million tons of crude and about 380bcm of gas. Over the last decade over $1 5 billion was invested in Azerbaijan's oil industry $9 billion of which were invested in the country's major project - the AzeriChirag-Gyuneshli development. The future of oil and gas development in Azerbaijan is primarily associated with offshore prospects. A total of 28 oil and gas fields have been discovered in Azerbaijan's sector of the Caspian Sea (18 of them are presently in development), 130 prospects have been identified. Oil Fund In December 1999, the State Oil Fund was established in Azerbaijan as a government institution reporting to the Head of State and financed from non-budget funds. Its assets are formed primarily by revenues generated by Azeri companies from oil and gas sales, bonuses received under oil and gas development contracts, and lease payments for the use of state property under contracts executed with foreign companies. The main idea behind the establishment of the State Oil Fund is to use oil revenues largely in the interests of the nation's future and as a source of occasional additions to the state budget. As of the early 2006, the State Oil Fund amounted to $1.18 billion. Its 2006 revenue has been approved at $896.6. Expected revenue from profit oil sales is estimated at 684 new Manats ($759M); from the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline transit tariffs, at about 13.5 million new Manats ($1 5M); from bonuses, 67.5 million new Manats ($75Mj; and acreage lease payments, 7,4 million new Manats ($8.2M). In addition, proceeds from the Fund capital employed in 2006 are expected at a level of 35.3 new Manats ($39.1 M); other income and proceeds, 0.1 million new Manats ($0.11M). The Fund expenses in 2006 will include 585 million new Manats ($649M) to be transferred to the state budget; 110.3 million new Manats {$ 1 22M) will be allocated to social and economic programs in support of refugees and forced migrants; and 38 million new Manats ($42M) will cover Azerbaijan's share of financing the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline construction. Нефть и газ Азербайджана.-2006.-№ 8.-P.4-7.

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