Borrower Briefing

28th November 2016

Borrower Briefing Borrower Briefing - Trump Special Will no-one rid me of this troublesome Trump? It would appear not. But the likely appointment of Wilbur Ross as Secretary of Commerce might bring some direction to the bluster of Trumpenomics. Wilbur Ross, chairman and chief strategist of private equity firm W.L. Ross & Co and prior to that head of Rothschild's bankruptcy practice for 25 years, looks set to become Secretary of Commerce under the Trump administration. A billionaire in his own right, Ross made his fortune restructuring distressed assets, his most notable deal being the combining of bankrupt steel producers Bethlehem Steel, Acme Steel, Weirton Steel and LTV Steel to form International Steel Group in 2002, which was then absorbed into Mittal Steel in the same year. For global trade, the appointment (although as yet unconfirmed) is potentially good news. Ross is both a diplomat (he has a good track record of getting unions onside during restructurings) and pragmatist. He made it clear during Trump’s campaigning that the maths did not work on the president elect’s pledge to wipe out $19 trillion of US debt in two terms. And he has voiced none of the xenophobic rhetoric of some of Trump’s other prospective appointees. Like Trump, Ross is a dealmaker. Unlike Trump, he also appears to be able to see the bigger picture. As he said in a recent interview with CNBC: “When we're looking at an opportunity, first of all we look at it on an industry basis, because we've learned over the years that when companies go bad, they generally go bad as a whole industry…This creates two sets of opportunities, one is to fix the individual company, and second is the potential for changing the dynamics of the whole industry. If you can do both, then you get two big increments to value. So that's what we really try to shoot for.” For the full interview click here. But the prospective appointment of Ross is one of very few global trade upsides in the Trump administration. Trump has also named two steel industry protectionists - Dan DiMicco and Robert Lighthizer - to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). With their appointments comes the likelihood of trade disputes – not least with China over steel dumping. Relations with China, and to a lesser extent Asia, are already on a downward spiral. Trump has killed TPP with one sentence – bad for markets like Japan where TPP was seen as a buffer against growing Chinese trade domination across Asia. And his proposed 45% trade tariff on US imports from China has prompted the Chinese government to announce it will protect its rights under WTO rules, which prohibit members from unilaterally raising tariffs above levels that they have committed to maintain. So is a trade war brewing? Yes. Last week, China’s state-run Global Times newspaper warned that a 45% Trump tariff would paralyse US-China bilateral trade. “China will take a tit-for-tat approach. A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus. US auto and [Apple] iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and US soybean and maize imports will be halted,” the newspaper claimed, in what can only have been a state-sanctioned statement.

Could China replace the US as a driver of global trade? No – China is an exporter and not an importer. According to the IMF China’s share of global gross domestic product jumped from 4% in 2000 to 15% in 2016, but its share in global imports was only 12% in 2015, while that of Asia was 36%, and the US and EU (excluding intra-EU trade) accounted for 31% of world imports. In short, without the US, the world becomes a much smaller market for exporters. The fallout from protectionism – and it is not unique to the US, it has already started with the UK’s Brexit –will be a return to costly bilateral trade agreements across the globe. That will put the overall costs of trading up, the brakes on growth and waste a pile of cash on lawyers. For the trade finance market, any slowing in trade volume is always going to be bad news. But for trade borrowers, access to liquidity is unlikely to be hit by a protectionist US. For example, around 80% of commercial bank and ECA-backed trade finance lending into Asia is from non-US institutions (see chart). Similarly, the US banks have never played a major role in lending to the Russian trade market, even allowing for US sanctions (see chart). And although a US-Russia thawing of relations appears more likely, European lenders will continue to dominate the market and have already started ignoring US sanctions. Trump may be an evolutionary throwback in trade terms, and a few others for that matter, but the banalities of Trumpenomics are likely to hit the US trade finance lending market hardest, and his planned FDR-like infrastructure programme could prove a boon for non-US lenders given borrowing in euros is considerably cheaper than dollars.

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Trade Finance Awards 2017 Submissions close 15th December 2016. Trade Finance invites you to nominate a deal, your institution or any of your peers or clients as candidates for Trade Finance's fifteenth annual awards - celebrating innovation, service excellence and competitive pricing in the trade and export markets. To submit your nomination, or for full details of the awards process, click to download a submission form. To ensure that we celebrate the best the market has to offer, the awards are judged against market opinion and Trade Finance Analytics' market leading data, and encompass three key categories: Transactions - Deals of the Year Best for Borrowers - Service Provision Best of Borrowers - Borrower Innovation We accept nomination via submission of the online pdf, or as a scanned document, simply email your completed form to: [email protected]

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Fadhili CHP project nears close with Kexim backing The power project is just one part of Saudi Aramco’s $13 billion Fadhili gas programme - a key component in Saudi’s master gas system - which together with Aramco’s two other new major gas projects, Wasit and Midyan, will boost Saudi Arabia’s non-associated gas processing capacity by more than 5 bcfd and lift overall natural gas supplies to more than 17 bcfd by 2020.

Bahrain LNG ECA-covered financing signed The project is a 20-year BOOT concession for an 800 million standard-cubic-feet-per-day LNG terminal in the Hidd industrial area of Bahrain.

Gunvor ups European refi despite troubled commodities market Despite the volume increase, appetite was such that commitments were still scaled back.

Etihad closes debut sukuk to fund capex plans UAE flagcarrier Etihad Airways has printed its debut sukuk, raising $1.5 billion of five-year debt to fund capital expenditure plans, which include taking delivery of 188 new aircraft by 2026.

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Sovcomflot raises arctic shuttle tanker loan Built in 2010 at the Admiralty Shipyards in St Petersburg, the shuttle tankers are used for transportation of all the oil produced at the offshore ice-resistant stationary platform (OIRSP) Prirazlomnaya in the Gazprom-operated Prirazlomnoye oilfield, located 32 nautical miles offshore in the Pechora Sea.

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Glencore out with Kurdish oil pre-payment facility prospectus Glencore is looking to raise $550 million from investors, via a note issue, to fund an equivalent sized oil-backed pre-payment facility to the Erbil-based government of Kurdistan in Iraqi Kurdistan.

NIB part financing Helen Oy woodchip heating plant The 100 MW Salmisaari plant will have an estimated district heat output of 230–280 GWh annually. Operations are scheduled to commence in February 2018.

Last Turkish bank trade borrowings of 2016 near close Garanti Bank and QNB Finansbank are expected to reach financial close on the second of their annual trade finance borrowing facilities before the end of the week.

EIB loan for major Ukraine rolling stock procurement Signed on November 11, proceeds will part finance procurement of 603 trolleybuses and 56 trams for Odessa, nine trams for Kiev and Lviv respectively, and 36 metro cars for Kharkiv.

FMO diversifies funding base with sustainable Skr bond Investors can expect a small premium on Kommuninvest’s Skr500 million 0.625% November 2023 bond which was quoted at 27.5bp over the Swedish government curve on Monday.

KfW providing credit line for Rwandan export fund The EGF facility is a one-stop shop with three separate windows - an investment catalyst fund, a matching grant fund for market entry related costs and an export guarantee facility.

Alecto Minerals to get Sinosure cover with caveats The project has an estimated plant and infrastructure cost of $14.4 million and the proposed onlending facility is being arranged by Xiamen XGMA International Trade Company (XGMA).

ADB approves $167m loan for Bangladesh gas projects The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is also expected to lend $60 million to the project, subject to board approval, with the remaining $226 million to come from the Bangladeshi government.

Finnvera covers €90m loan for Avea Turk Telekom subsidiary Avea has raised a €90 million ($95.7 million) Finnvera-covered nine-year loan for LTE-related equipment from Nokia.

India Eximbank raising $75m five-year loan Banks have until December 16 to make their commitments.

People and places US Trade Finance Advisory Council members sworn in The new committee will advise the US Secretary of Commerce on the development of strategies to help expand access to trade finance for US exporters.

Changes across HSBC global trade and receivables team

HSBC’s head of global trade and receivables finance (GTRF) for MENA, Kwabena Ayirebi, is returning to the UK as COO of the European CMB team, where he will report to Jonathan Moore, global COO CMB.

Doha Bank appoints new head of corporate finance Walker was previously with Goldman Sachs in the emerging market fixed income, currency and commodities (FICC) structuring team.

UKEF makes two new board appointments UKEF has appointed Noel Harwerth as chairman and Lawrence Weiss as a non-executive director.

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