Page 1 ... The global airline industry's fuel bill is estimated to total $130 billion in 2017 (accounting for over 17% o
Fact Sheet – Fuel
The global airline industry’s fuel bill is estimated to total $130 billion in 2017 (accounting for over 17% of operating expenses at $54.2/barrel Brent of oil).
This is a decrease of 2% over 2016’s fuel bill but is around 3 times 2003’s bill of $44 billion (that accounted for 14% of operating expenses at $28.8/barrel Brent).
In 2018 the fuel bill is forecasted at $156 billion (accounting for around 20% of operating expenses at $60 per barrel Brent).
Industry profits of $38.4 billion are forecasted for 2018, following profits of $34.5 billion in 2016.
Industry Fuel Costs and Net Profits Net Profits ($ Billion)
Total Industry Fuel Costs ($ billion)
50
240 38.4
35.9
40
35.3
34.5
190
30 17.3
20 14.7
10
8.3
5.0
9.2
10.7
140
13.7
90
0
-20
-4.6
-5.6
-10
-4.1 -11.3
40
-7.5
-26.1
-30 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-10 2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016 2017E 2018F
Average Price per Barrel of Brent Crude Oil
Net Profits (LHS) Total Industry Fuel Costs (RHS)
2012
2011 111.2
2012 111.8
2013 108.8
2014 99.9
2015 2016 2017E 2018F 53.9 44.6 54.2 60.0
Source: Industry Economics Performance - Forecast Table (IATA Economics) Updated: 12/2017 Next Update: 06/2018
For more information: IATA Airline Industry Economic Performance
December 2017
Fuel Impact on Operating Costs % of Operating Average Price per Break-even Price Costs Barrel of Crude (US$) per Barrel (US$)
Year
Total Fuel Cost
2004
17.3%
US$38.3
US$34.7
US$65 billion
2005
22.0%
US$54.5
US$52.0
US$91 billion
2006
27.2%
US$65.1
US$68.1
US$127 billion
2007
28.6%
US$73.0
US$81.7
US$146 billion
2008
35.7%
US$99.0
US$83.3
US$203 billion
2009
28.2%
US$62.0
US$59.1
US$134 billion
2010
26.9%
US$79.4
US$89.8
US$151 billion
2011
29.8%
US$111.2
US$116.1
US$191 billion
2012
32.3%
US$111.8
US$117.1
US$228 billion
2013
32.0%
US$108.8
US$114.8
US$230 billion
2014
29.2%
US$99.9
US$107.4
US$224 billion
2015
24.2%
US$53.9
US$72.6
US$174 billion
2016
18.7%
US$44.6
US$62.0
US$132 billion
2017E 2018F
17.3% 18.9%
US$54.2 US$60.0
US$70.6 US$77.6
US$130 billion US$156 billion
Source: Industry Economics Performance - Forecast Table (IATA Economics) Updated: 12/2017 Next Update: 06/2018
Impact of Refinery Margin on Fuel Costs Crack Spread (% of crude price)
Aditional Cost ($ billion) 40
40% 36.3
35
35%
30
30%
25
25% 20.6
20 17.2
17.9
18.7
17.7
20% 17.4
17.2
16.5
15
15%
13.3 11.5
10.1
10
10%
5.1
5
5%
3.2
0
0% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Additional Cost due to widening of margin from 2003 level ($b)
2013
2014
2015F
2016
2017E 2018F
Crack spread (% of crude price)
Source: Industry Economics Performance - Forecast Table (IATA Economics) Updated: 12/2017 Next Update: 06/2018
For more information: IATA Airline Industry Economic Performance
