Dec 1, 2017 - locations. The SMEB will be included once it has been agreed upon by all partners and may not contain all
Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) December 2017
INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGY
In an effort to better understand market dynamics in Libya, the Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) was initiated by the Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG) in June 2017. The initiative is guided by the CMWG Markets Taskforce, led by REACH and supported by the CMWG members. Markets in key urban areas across Libya are assessed on a monthly basis. In each location, field teams record prices and availability of basic food and nonfood items (NFI) sold in local shops and markets. This factsheet presents an overview of price ranges and medians for key foods and NFIs in the assessed areas. The cleaned data sets are available on the REACH Resource Centre and distributed to CMWG partners, as well as to the broader humanitarian community. In future rounds, the factsheet will include a Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), which represents the minimum culturally adjusted group of items required to support a Libyan household for one month. The prices associated with the SMEB will illustrate variations in prices across assessed locations. The SMEB will be included once it has been agreed upon by all partners and may not contain all items assessed in the previous rounds.
Data collection for the JMMI occurs on a monthly basis, with associated factsheets and datasets published and distributed after every round. The seventh round of data collection for the JMMI was conducted between 1 and 7 December 2017, during which enumerators from 5 CMWG partners (ACTED, DRC, Mercy Corps, WFP & REACH) gathered price data for 32 basic items from 257 individual shops. For the December round, no data was collected from Murzuq, while 3 new locations were added to the coverage of the JMMI (AlAziziya, Al-Marj and Sabratah), increasing the number of assessed locations to 24. Field staff familiar with the local market conditions
ROUND 7 FIGURES 24 assessed cities 257 assessed shops 32 assessed items
EXCHANGE RATES 1.362 USD/LYD
9.550 USD/LYD
11.313 EUR/LYD
official1
parallel market2
parallel market2
- 0.9%
+10.0%
+12.1%
ANALYSIS Libyan dinar kept depreciating Since November, the Libyan dinar has lost 9.1% against the US dollar on the parallel market, after already having depreciated by 4.8% in the previous month, which has created further inflationary pressures. Food items rose by 6.0% since November Following the recent increases in the parallel market exchange rates, food prices across Libya have been moving upwards. Among the assessed locations, food prices rose by 6.0% since November. In the east (+10.3%), food prices were found to have increased more than in the west (+4.4%), while food prices decreased slightly (-3.4%) in the south. Significant changes to overall food prices were reported in Tobruk (12.5%) and Zwara (+13.9%). Notable price changes since November were registered for fresh vegetables, namely tomatoes (+25.0%), onions (+20.0%) and peppers (+12.5%). These increases were likely driven by seasonal factors. Most locations furthermore saw a rise in sugar (+12.5%) and chicken meat (+9.1%) prices. Across many assessed locations, shop owners reported a shortage of lamb meat in the market. While the shortage has not affected availability
Libya Cash & Markets Working Group ASSESSED LOCATIONS identified shops representative of the general price level in their respective location. Assessed shops include supermarkets, bakeries, vegetable sellers and butchers, as well as central markets. At least four prices per assessed item were collected within each location. In line with the purpose of the JMMI, only the price of the cheapest available brand was recorded for each item. Enumerators were trained on methodology and tools by REACH. Data collection was conducted through the KoBo mobile application. Following data collection, REACH compiled and cleaned all partner data, normalising prices and cross-checking outliers.
(! ! ( ( !
( !
( ! ! ! ( ( ( !
Al-Bayda ( ! ( ! ( ! Al-Marj Derna !( Tobruk ( ! Sirte Benghazi ( !
( ! ( !
Ghadamis ( !
( !
Ajdabiya
Ubari ( !
Brak Sabha
! ( ( !
Ghat
Al-Gatroun
( !
( !
Al-Kufrah
( !
Northwest Libya Zwara !( Sabratha !(Tripoli ( ! Tarhuna !(Zliten Al-Aziziyah !( ( !
Nalut
( !
of lamb meat, prices have increased by 9.9% since November. NFI prices remained stable Unlike the parallel exchange rate and food prices, NFI prices have fallen slightly since November (-0.6%). In the South, a notable decrease (-6.7%) of NFI prices was recorded. The NFI price index rose by 20.2% in Gharyan, and fell by 21.8% in Zliten. For specific NFIs, no notable price changes since November were reported. All assessed items were available in shops No availability issues were reported in December. Both food and non-food items were readily available. Shop owners generally paid suppliers in cash As in the previous month, the JMMI registered the accepted payment modalities in the assessed shops and found that non-cash payment modalities remain rarely used in the Libyan context (see chart on page 2: Accepted Payment Modalities in Assessed Shops). In addition, shop owners were questioned about payment modalities used to pay their respective suppliers. All respondents reported that they used cash, while only 11.9% handle their payments with cheques, and 7.1% with bank transfers.
Zintan
( !
( !
Gharyan Bani Walid ( !
ASSESSED ITEMS Item Food Items
Salt Sugar Wheat flour Rice Pasta Couscous Tomato paste Chickpeas Beans Milk Condensed milk Baby milk
Non-Food Items
Hand washing soap Laundry soap Shampoo Dishwashing liquid Toothpaste Toothbrush Sanitary pads Baby diapers
Vegetable oil Green tea Black tea Canned tuna Eggs Chicken meat Lamb meat Bread Tomatoes Onions Peppers Potatoes
FOOD PRICE INDEX Location
82.3
Oct 87.1
Nov 86.8
Dec 92.5
Jun 30.6
Jul
28.3
Aug 27.3
Sep 30.5
Oct 31.8
Nov 31.4
Dec 31.9
ld Go
Sep
t
79.3
r
Aug
en ym
Jul
76.0
rte
79.1
MEDIAN NFI PRICE INDEX OVER TIME4
Pa
Jun
+4.1%4
Ba
MEDIAN FOOD PRICE INDEX OVER TIME4
+1.34
0.0%
ey
+16.9%4
0.0%
e lin On
–4.1% 32.4%
0.0%
n Mo ile
–1.3 +7.2
0.0%
b Mo
–8.6%
1.6%
rd
–2.8
2.0%
Ca
+23.5%
4.3%
it
+6.1
29+26+29+32+37+37+43 16+13+12+16+17+16+17 +13.44
+100+8+5+3+3+1+1+1+1 6.6%
bit
–3.2%3 –1.4%3 –6.7%3 –0.6%3
0.7% 3.1%
De
–1.03 –0.53 –2.73 –0.23
0.3 1.1
100.0%
ed
18.1%
+5.8% –2.4% –16.9% +0.4% –3.4% +1.4% +3.4% –6.8% –0.4% –2.7% +10.2% –21.8% –13.9% –8.8%
+61.0%
Cr
13.1
+1.9 –0.8 –6.6 +0.1 –1.1 +0.4 +1.0 –2.2 –0.1 –0.8 +2.7 –7.9 –4.5 –2.6
+17.9
fer
+6.8% –1.6% +4.4%3 +10.3%3 –3.4%3 +6.0%3
1.2% 23.0%
+17.5% +13.9% +4.4% –6.7% +20.2% +7.1% –6.3%
(% of total assessed shops5)
it /
+5.3 –1.3 +3.73 +8.53 –3.53 +5.13
1.1 16.5
+7.6 +5.8 +1.8 –2.7 +6.2 +2.4 –2.4
Change since Jun 2017 (in %)
ns
+4.4% +5.1%
12.3%
50.8 47.3 42.4 37.2 37.0 36.1 35.1 35.0 34.3 32.6 32.5 32.2 32.0 31.9 31.5 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.2 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.5 29.3 32.6 37.2 32.1
Change since Jun 2017 (in LYD)
ed
+3.6 +4.1
10.1
Change since Nov 2017 (in %)
a Tr
+8.2% +8.5% +1.9% +2.1% +6.2% +6.2%
22.9% 27.2% 16.6%
Change since Nov 2017 (in LYD)
Cr
+6.9 +6.9 +1.6 +1.9 +5.1 +5.1
18.1 20.6 13.3
Zwara Sabha Ubari Al-Gatroun Gharyan Brak Al-Kufrah Al-Marj Al-Bayda Ajdabiya Ghat Bani Walid Benghazi Derna Tarhuna Sirte Tripoli Nalut Zintan Zliten Tobruk Ghadamis Sabratah Al-Aziziya Median West Median East Median South Median Overall
NFI Price Index (in LYD)
nk
+5.8% –1.7% +13.9% –3.4% –0.4% +1.7% +7.0% +5.6% +5.4% +7.7% +12.5%
Location
Ba
+6.0 –1.9 +12.4 –3.5 –0.4 +1.6 +6.3 +5.0 +4.8 +6.6 +10.1
Change since Jun 2017 (in %)
ue
110.2 109.5 101.9 99.9 98.5 97.2 96.4 93.5 93.1 92.5 91.3 91.1 90.3 88.5 88.4 88.0 87.8 87.1 85.9 85.6 84.3 84.3 83.4 81.8 88.2 90.3 99.9 90.7
Change since Jun 2017 (in LYD)
eq
Change since Nov 2017 (in %)
Ch
Change since Nov 2017 (in LYD)
sh
Food Price Index (in LYD)
PAYMENT MODALITIES ACCEPTED PAYMENT MODALITIES IN ASSESSED SHOPS
Ca
Ubari Al-Gatroun Zwara Ghat Al-Kufrah Derna Zintan Sabha Ghadamis Gharyan Tobruk Sabratah Al-Bayda Bani Walid Brak Nalut Tripoli Tarhuna Al-Marj Sirte Benghazi Al-Aziziya Ajdabiya Zliten Median West Median East Median South Median Overall
NFI PRICE INDEX
CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS Coordinating a price monitoring exercise via remote management is inherently challenging, as issues of enumerator training, consistent communication and verification of results are harder to resolve from afar. The CMWG has sought to overcome these issues by harmonising procedures and data collection tools to ensure that the data uploaded is as accurate as possible.
ENDNOTES 1 Source: Central Bank of Libya (2017, Dec 3). Retrieved from www.cbl. gov.ly. The rates from 3 December and 2 November were used for the calculation of the monthly change. 2 Source: Ewan Libya (2017, Dec 3). Retrieved from www.ewanlibya.ly. The rates from 3 December and 2 November were used for the calculation of the monthly change. 3 Only includes locations with reference data from November and December. 4 Only includes locations with reference data from June (Brak, Derna, Gharyan, Nalut, Sabha, Sirte and Zintan). 5 Out of the 257 shops surveyed in the December round, data from 256 is available on payment modalities.
The food price index was calculated by adding up the median prices of one unit of each food item (excluding baby milk and lamb meat), the NFI price index by adding up the median prices of one unit of each non-food item (excluding baby diapers). Where the median value is not available, the average price across all locations was assumed for the calculation of the indices.
2
Libya Cash & Markets Working Group
Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI), December 2017
Distribution of Prices in Libya FOOD ITEMS 15
15.0
9.0
8.0
30
40
Tomatoes Vegetable (1 kg) oil (1 L)
Chickpeas Potatoes (400 g) (1 kg)
1.3
2.8
2.5
2.0 1.2 0.1
1.5 1.2 0.1
Flour (1 kg)
Pasta (500 g)
26.5
8 11.0
10.0
10
Salt (1 kg)
▶
6.1 0.2
3.1
Baby diapers (30 diapers)
Laundry soap (1 kg)
Shampoo (250 ml)
Libya Cash & Markets Working Group
6.0 0.2
4.0 ▶0
2.0
2.5
Toothpaste (100 ml)
Sanitary pads (10 pads)
3.2 0.7
1.0
4.0 2.5 0.3
1.0
3.0
3
1.4 0.9 0.2 ▶
3.8
0.3
Overall median price across city medians (LYD) Change in overall median since last month (LYD)
5
▶
Chicken meat (1 kg)
9.0
8.0
8.7 0.4
▶
Baby milk (400 g)
1.0 0.5 ▶ 0
10
0 Lamb meat (1 kg)
Bread (5 pieces)
1.8
Upper quartile: 25% of city medians are above this point
▶
12.1 10.7 1.0
1.1 0.6 0.1
13
▶
10.0
16.0
Tomato paste (400 g)
1.5
Maximum city median in dataset (LYD)
22.8 0.8
▶
17.5 ▶0
1.2 1.0 0.1
How to read a boxplot
16.2
20
2.0
▶
20
28.5
2.5 0.4
Beans Condensed (400 g) Milk (200 ml)
28.0
0
3
Onions (1 kg)
2.6 1.9 0.1
15
27.0
▶
36.0 3.3
10
3
Rice (1 kg)
2.6 1.8 0.3
▶
Price (LYD)
Milk (1 L)
1.8
2.9 2.5 0.1
4.0
NON-FOOD ITEMS
42.5
30
Couscous (1 kg)
3.0 0.5
4.0
▶
Sugar (1 kg)
4.0
3.5
▶
FOOD ITEMS CONT.
Peppers (1 kg)
3.4 0.1
▶
Tuna (200 g)
2.1
1.5
0 Eggs Black tea Green tea (30 eggs) (250 g) (250 g)
3.5 3.0 ▶ 0
▶
2.2
3.0
3.8 0.8
▶
3.1
4.0 ▶0
▶
4.0 0.1
▶
3.5
5.0
4.5
▶
3.4
5.0 4.5 0.5
▶
4.5 0.5
6.5
6.0
▶
4.7 0.2
6.0
▶
5.4 4.5 0.1 ▶
5.0
5.2
▶
5
6.2
5.7
▶
6.6 0.1
▶
10.0
▶
10
▶
Price (LYD)
▶
13.0 0.5
Dishwashing Toothbrush Handwashing liquid (1 brush) soap (1 L) (1 bar)
0
Lower quartile: 25% of city medians are below this point Minimum city median in dataset (LYD)
Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI), December 2017
