May 28, 2018 - UNIONBANK, and IDBI saw long build up, while PNB,. BANKBARODA, INDIANB, ORIENTBANK, and FEDERALBNK saw sh
Weekly Derivatives Synopsis 28-05-2018 PARTICULARS
Last Closing
Previous Week
% Change
NIFTY SPOT
10,605
10,596
0.1
NIFTY FUTURES
10,602
10,597
0.1
BANKNIFTY SPOT
26274
25876
1.5
BANKNIFTY FUTURES
26242
25878
1.4
NIFTY PCR
1.47
1.36
8.1
NIFTY PCR-VOL
1.07
0.92
16.3
NIFTY OI(In Mn)
24.7
25.5
-3.1
BANKNIFTY OI(In Mn)
3.22
3.03
6.3
INDIA VIX
12.64
14.15
-10.7
NIFTY HV
12.9
11.83
9.0
Nifty Basis Points
-2.8
0.6
-566.7
Derivatives: After early weakness, the Indian stock market managed to regain its losing steam, which helped Nifty close above the 10600 mark. Sentiment was boosted after Brent Crude nosedived nearly 2% to below $78/bbl and USDINR slipped 54bps at 67.80, thanks to favorable macro and micro factors. Finally, Nifty Futures closed flat (0.1% WoW) at 10602 with unwinding of 3.1% (WoW). Nifty VIX for the week closed on a weaker note at 12.64, down 10.7% (WoW) indicating drop in volatility. On the options front, Nifty Put call ratio currently stands at 1.47, up 8.1% (WoW). On the technical front, index on the daily scale has confirmed a bullish harami candlestick pattern, which indicates bullish reversal for the short term. Moreover, the stock has sustained above its 50DSMA as well as 100DSMA indicating strength. As long as the index sustained above 10500, an upmove until 10700-10750 can be possible. On the higher side, 10800 and 11000 will act as hurdle whereas 10500 will act as key support on downside. Going forward, global cues, quarterly results, FII flows, Dollar movement, and crude oil price movement will be the key market triggers.
10,700
,25
10,600
,20
10,500
,15
10,400
,10
10,300
,5
10,200
,0
Nifty OI
Nifty Future
,1.95 ,1.85 ,1.75 ,1.65 ,1.55 ,1.45 ,1.35 ,1.25 ,1.15 ,1.05 ,0.95
Nifty
PCR
Sectoral Activity
15
Sectors 10 Open Interest %
11400 11200 11000 10800 10600 10400 10200 10000 9800 9600
PCR
,30
11-Apr 13-Apr 15-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 21-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 29-Apr 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May
,35
Nifty
10,900 10,800
Nifty Open Interest (Mn.)
Nifty Fut. Vs. Pcr
23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 30-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 7-May 8-May 9-May 10-May 11-May 14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May 18-May 21-May 22-May 23-May 24-May 25-May
Nifty Future
Nifty OI Trend
1. Last week, Textile, FMCG, Cement, Oil & Gas, Media, and Metals stocks saw Open Interest addition. Top names included PAGEIND, ARVIND, BERGEPAINT, COLPAL, ACC, ULTRACEMCO, IGL, ONGC, TV18BRDCST, PVR, TATASTEEL, and HINDZINC. 2. Telecom and Realty stocks saw Open Interest unwinding on the back of short covering, especially in BHARTIARTL, TATACOMM, IDEA, and DLF.
5
Textile FMCG Cement Oil_Gas Media Metals Power Cap Goods Pharma Finance Infra Banking Auto Fertilisers Techo Realty Index Telecom
0
-5
Index Outlook
-10
ACMIIL | Retail Research | Weekly Derivatives Synopsis
3. In the Banking space, CANBK, SBINALBK, ANDHRABANK, UNIONBANK, and IDBI saw long build up, while PNB, BANKBARODA, INDIANB, ORIENTBANK, and FEDERALBNK saw short covering. 4. This week, some buying can be seen in M&M, COLPAL, POWERGRID, CIPLA, and CADILAHC, while selling pressure can be seen in ADANIPORTS and ACC. 5. From sector space, Banking, AutoMedia, Pharma, and Telecom stocks are likely to remain in focus in the forthcoming week. www.investmentz.com
Weekly Derivatives Synopsis 28-05-2018 Stocks to Watch Out (Weekly) Long Build-up Symbol
Long Unwinding
Price
OI Change
Price Change
Symbol
Price
OI Change
Price Change
297.20
56%
6%
RCOM
14.45
-14%
-6%
COLPAL
1,244.90
48%
2%
BEML
955.75
-13%
-7%
PIDILITIND
1,140.70
44%
5%
MGL
793.05
-8%
-8%
PAGEIND
24,600.05
42%
6%
RAMCOCEM
788.00
-8%
-6%
BERGEPAINT
Short Build-up Symbol
Short covering
Price
OI Change
Price Change
Symbol
Price
OI Change
Price Change
ACC
1,325.30
28%
-4%
NIITTECH
1,123.55
-24%
8%
IGL
257.90
25%
-3%
STAR
417.75
-19%
8%
ADANIPOWER
20.10
21%
-5%
NHPC
27.20
-15%
4%
ONGC
175.60
19%
-5%
SRTRANSFIN
1,502.25
-15%
6%
Weekly Recommendation CADILAHC (383.35) - The stock has seen Open Interest addition of 6.35% along with positive price action indicating long build up. The stock can be bought in the range of 374-378 with a stop loss of 359 on closing basis for a target of 395-400. Target: 400 Stop Loss: 359 ULTRACEMCO (3695.80) - The stock has seen Open Interest addition of 12.73% along with negative price action indicating short build up. Technically, the stock has broken previous support with volumes. The stock can be sold in the range of 3720-3760 with a stop loss of 3820 on closing basis for a target of 3620-3600. Target: 3600 Stop Loss: 3820
Nifty Options Snapshot 80
67
70 60
53
1
2
3
10200
10300
20
13
6
26
19 8
2
4 11000
19
40
34
10900
35 31
27
30
10
36
36
40
10100
10800
10700
10500 CE
10600
0
10400
Open Interest (In Lakh)
50
From the OI Concentration (May Series), maximum addition of Open Interest on the call options front exists at the strike prices of 10800 and 11000 (with nearly 52.96 lacs and 40.27 lacs shares outstanding respectively). This indicates these levels would act as the resistance zone on the upside. On the Put options front, maximum addition of Open Interest is at the strike prices of 10500 and 10400 (with nearly 67.37 lacs and 36.35 lacs shares outstanding respectively), indicating a stronger support zone on the downside.
PE
ACMIIL | Retail Research | Weekly Derivatives Synopsis
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Weekly Derivatives Synopsis 28-05-2018 FII Stats (5 Days Trend) (Rs. Cr.)
25-May
24-May
23-May
22-May
21-May
INDEX FUTURES
-1434
-30
-637
660
201
INDEX OPTIONS
-827
2692
2271
2867
-1359
STOCK FUTURES
-240
-244
-397
-145
118
STOCK OPTIONS
-62
33
-22
134
6
FII Open Interest Activity (Long& Short Ratio) Date
Index Fut: Long/Short
Index Option: Long /Short
Index put: long /Short
Stock Fut Long/Short
18-May
1.16
2.26
2.40
1.29
21-May
1.08
2.23
2.68
1.28
22-May
1.00
2.11
2.79
1.28
23-May
1.41
2.65
2.29
1.31
24-May
0.83
2.12
2.69
1.28
25-May
0.88
2.23
2.64
1.31
NIFTY VS INDIA VIX (Last 30 Days Trend) 10,900
,22 ,21
10,800
,20 ,19
10,700
,18 ,17 ,16 ,15
10,500
,14
10,400
,13
10,300
,11
VIX
Nifty Spot
10,600
,12 ,10 ,9
13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 16-Apr 17-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May 7-May 8-May 9-May 10-May 11-May 12-May 13-May 14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May 18-May 19-May 20-May 21-May 22-May 23-May 24-May 25-May
10,200
Nifty Spot
VIX
Observation: Any rise in India Vix this week would lead to either side movement in the index. As per the above chart, India Vix has strong support at around 12.00 and resistance stands at 15.00.
Weekly Advance Decline Ratio (Nifty Stocks) Advances
17
Declines
22
Unchanged
11
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