Feb 23, 2012 - Now, please imagine that Barack Obama or a Democratic leader in Congress made the following statements ab
Mixed Economic Message Report on the state of the economy and economic narratives February 23, 2012
Methods and Economic Narrative Testing
This presentation is based on a national survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. 1000 likely 2012 voters (1000 weighted) were interviewed from February 11-14, 2012. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/- 3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence. •
In this exercise, we tested two middle class frameworks; the first framed Obama’s economic program as one that would create middle class opportunity to achieve overall economic growth and the second framed Obama’s economic worldview as a “fair shot” for the middle class. We test two other frameworks which talk about progress: one centered on jobs and the other on the state of the country, “America is back.”
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February 23, 2012 | 23, Page 3 February 2012
Voters see macro but no micro or political gains on economy Macro-economic climate and outlook improving But on a personal level, there has been no change since last summer on key economic indicators – loss of a job, reduced wages/benefits Majority still believes we are not heading in the right direction and need a change No change on which party trust to handle the economy Republicans grow out of touch on taxes
© 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
3
Economic climate improves but less than a quarter positive about economy Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold… The state of the economy. Warm
Cool 208,000 New Jobs
2008 Passage of Election Recovery Act
777979
First net job growth: 14,000 New Jobs
79 78
7270
71 676566
12 9 8
Nov-08
16 13 1515
66 65 61
64
21 17 16
19
64 60
23 19
243,000 New Jobs
431,000 New Jobs 83,000 New Jobs
63 62
20 21
18
1313
79 74
70 71 69 68 66 64 63 63
19 16 16 1818 13
200,000 New Jobs
71,000 New Jobs
6768 66 68
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
66 60
22 1616
19 17
19 12
9 8
Feb-09
Feb-11
74
May-11
Aug-11
22
9 11
Nov-11
Feb-12
4
Big rise since last summer in perception that macro economy improving Now, thinking about the nation’s economy, do you believe the economy has already bottomed out and is starting to improve, is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better or has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse?
44 37
35
28
23
Already At bottom improving June 2011
23
Will get worse
Already At bottom improving
Will get worse
February 2012 5
But not close to being there yet – majority believes economy not moving in the right direction and need a change Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
STATEMENT 1: I'm beginning to think the economy is moving in the right direction and we shouldn't be doing things that disrupt the recovery.
STATEMENT 2: The economy is not moving in the right direction and we need a change.
+16 56
40
48
26
Right direction
Need a change
6
Little change in key personal economic impact indicators since last June I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.
Impacted you
Impacted you
Loss of a job
Reduced wages, hours or benefits at work
Lost health insurance coverage
Total impacted you or family
Total impacted you or family
Total impacted you or family
+1
-2
+1
37
33
11
34
11
June 2011 February 2012
16
35
15
June 2011 February 2012
25
26
9
10
June 2011 February 2012
7
People do not see labor market improvements I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.
Rejoined the job market and began to look for work again
Got a new job Impacted you
Impacted you
Total impacted you or family
Total impacted you or family
+1
-4
32
33
33
10
9
12
10
June 2011
February 2012
June 2011
February 2012
29
8
Republican hold lead on handling economy, while Democrats default to 40 percent Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item… the economy.
Democrats
Republicans
Inauguration
2010 Election
53 51
50
49 48
47
45
39
46 44 45
39
2/6/2008
5/13/2009
46
42 43
41 34 34 34
48
47 47 44 44 45 44 44
46
46 44 44 44 44 42
42
43
42 38 39
40
40 39
38
2/23/2010
5/18/2010
9/3/2010
40
40
36 36
36
9/17/2009
45
1/11/2011
38
40 37
38 37
5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012
9
Democrats gaining major ground in tax debate: 10 points since 2010 election Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue…Taxes. Democrats much better
Republicans much better
Taxes +16
+10
+14
51
+6 49
46
47 41
36
35
35
30
28
26 19
Democrats
November 2010 (Post-election)
Democrats
26
Democrats
Republicans
19
18
Republicans
25
Republicans
January 2011
Democrats
Republicans
February 2011
February 2012 10
February 23,February 2012 | Page 11 23, 2012
Economic messages
The best Democratic messages highlighting economy for middle class beat the best Republican messages, reflecting Kansas speech But big warning signs: “America is back” and “progress on jobs” are dangerously weak as messages
© 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
11
Middle class messages are strong Now, please imagine that Barack Obama or a Democratic leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Middle class - economy This is a make-or-break moment for the middle class, and for all those who are fighting to get into the middle class. Because what's at stake is whether this will be a country where working people can earn enough to raise a family, build a modest savings, own a home and secure their retirement. We need to keep taxes low for the middle class, support innovation, help small businesses and really commit to education and training for people who work hard.
Middle class - fairness Much more likely
54
33
This is a make-or-break moment for the middle class, and for all those who are fighting to get into it. We have to be a country where working people can earn enough to raise a family, build a modest savings, own a home and secure their retirement. And we succeed when everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share and everyone plays by the same rules. So asking billionaires like Warren Buffett to pay their fair share of taxes is not class warfare, it's just common sense.
Much more likely
53
34
12
Progress on jobs and America is back are potentially disastrous Now, please imagine that Barack Obama or a Democratic leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Progress on jobs
America is back Much more likely
In 2009, we were losing 750,000 jobs a month. Our biggest banks and auto companies were on the brink of pulling down the whole economy. But we righted the ship. We did not tip into a Great Depression. And over the last 22 months, businesses have created more than 3 million jobs, the most since 2005 and more manufacturing jobs than since the 1990s. We still have a long way to go but we have restored hope and possibility to the economy.
44
25
Much more likely
America is back. Anyone who tells you that America is in decline or that our influence has waned doesn't know what they're talking about. The United States is back to leading the world in innovation, smart manufacturing and creating the new technologies of tomorrow. After 10 years of war and occupation, America's reputation in the world has been restored. We are a beacon again for democracies and aspiring democracies.
32
15
13
And Democratic middle class messages beat strongest Republican frames Now, please imagine that a Mitt Romney or a Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Free enterprise and individualism
Republican choice
Much more likely
For our parents, America was the land of opportunity. Small businesses and entrepreneurs were encouraged not impeded. We must rebuild the foundations of the American economy on the principles of free enterprise, hard work, and individualism. We will do this by reducing taxes, cutting spending, and eliminating regulations that prevent our businesses from making money and creating jobs.
46
25
President Obama's policies have failed and now he wants to raise taxes and increase spending. We can't keep moving down the wrong direction. Washington doesn't understand how to achieve growth and prosperity. We need to return to the policies that have served our nation well in the past: cut spending, reduce taxes and regulations to give our economy back to those who do know how to create prosperity-businesses, entrepreneurs, and hard working families.
Much more likely
43
25
14
Middle class-future-oriented messages dominate; other messages much weaker Now, please imagine that a Barack Obama/Mitt Romney or a Democratic/Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat/Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Total
53
54
44
46
43
25
25
32 34
33
25
Middle class - Middle class - Progress on fairness economy jobs
Democratic messages
15 America is back
Free Republican enterprise choice and individualism
Republican messages 15
Straight middle class message strongest with independents Now, please imagine that a Barack Obama/Mitt Romney or a Democratic/Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat/Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Independents
43
38
26 11
11
24
10
Middle class - Middle class - Progress on economy fairness jobs
Democratic messages
America is back
25
23
11
9
Free Republican enterprise choice and individualism
Republican messages 16
Rising American Electorate Now, please imagine that a Barack Obama/Mitt Romney or a Democratic/Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat/Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Rising American Electorate 64
62 48
46
42
32
Middle class - Middle class - Progress on economy fairness jobs
Democratic messages
46
36
37
22
20
17
America is back
Republican choice
Free enterprise and individualism
Republican messages 17
Unmarried women Now, please imagine that a Barack Obama/Mitt Romney or a Democratic/Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat/Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Unmarried women 69 59
52 40 31
40
39
33
Middle class - Middle class - Progress on fairness economy jobs
Democratic messages
36
17
18
15
America is back
Republican choice
Free enterprise and individualism
Republican messages 18
Youth Now, please imagine that a Barack Obama/Mitt Romney or a Democratic/Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat/Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Youth 62 50
45 29
34
39 19
12
Middle class - Middle class - Progress on economy fairness jobs
Democratic messages
41
25
21
Republican choice
Free enterprise and individualism
3 America is back
Republican messages 19
White seniors Now, please imagine that a Barack Obama/Mitt Romney or a Democratic/Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat/Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
White seniors
48
52
49
47
32
30
41 31
36
34
30
Middle class - Middle class - Progress on economy fairness jobs
Democratic messages
15 America is back
Free Republican enterprise choice and individualism
Republican messages 20
White non-college Now, please imagine that a Barack Obama/Mitt Romney or a Democratic/Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat/Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
White non-college
51
45
55
56
36
30
Republican choice
Free enterprise and individualism
41
23 31
26
21
Middle class - Middle class - Progress on economy fairness jobs
Democratic messages
8 America is back
Republican messages 21
Suburban Now, please imagine that a Barack Obama/Mitt Romney or a Democratic/Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After hearing each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democrat/Republican, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them?
Suburban 65
61 48
42 34
33 48
40
33
Middle class - Middle class - Progress on fairness economy jobs
Democratic messages
20 America is back
26
24
Free Republican enterprise choice and individualism
Republican messages 22
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