Energy Slideshow - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

ENERGY SLIDESHOW Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Updated: November 13, 2017

ENERGY PRICES

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

www.dallasfed.org/research/energy

BrentOil Crude Oil Brent &WTI WTI&Crude Brent (Nov 10 = $64.24)

Dollars per barrel 140

WTI (Nov 10 = $57.03)

120

95% confidence bands for WTI

100 80 60 40 20

0 2009

2010

2011

2012


2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 11/10/17. Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.

HenryHub HubNatural & Marcellus Henry Gas Natural Gas Henry Hub (Nov 10 = $3.12)

Dollars per million British thermal units 7

Marcellus (Nov 10 = $1.17) 95% confidence bands for Henry Hub

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2009

2010

2011

2012


2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 11/10/17. Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.

Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel Retail Gasoline & Diesel Retail price per gallon PADD

Gasoline

Diesel

$2.55

$2.88

1A

$2.60

$2.85

1B

$2.66

$3.02

1C

$2.45

$2.80

2

$2.53

$2.88

3

$2.30

$2.70

4

$2.54

$2.99

5

$3.08

$3.39

U.S.

$2.59

$2.92

1


NOTES: Prices are for 11/13/17. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

GLOBAL PETROLEUM



World Oil Supply & Demand World Oil Supply & Demand Million barrels per day 102 101

Q3 2017 98.7

100 99 98 97

World production

98.3

96 95 94

World consumption

93 92

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Implied Oil Stocks World OilChange Supplyin&World Demand Million barrels per day 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Crude Oil Production OPECOPEC Oil Production & Rig Count Million barrels per day 33.5

33.0 32.5

Oct 32.8

32.0 31.5 31.0 30.5

30.0 29.5 29.0 28.5 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012


2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

OECDCommercial CommercialInventories Oil Inventories OECD Million barrels 3,200 3,100

3,000 2,900

Oct 2966

2,800 2,700

2010-2014 average

2,600 2,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

World Oil Production Outages OECD Commercial Inventories Million barrels per day 3.0 OPEC

2.5

2.0 1.5

Oct 1.23

1.0 Non-OPEC

0.32

0.5 0.0 2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

NATIONAL OUTLOOK



U.S. Oil & Gas Production U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day 11

U.S. natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day 110

10

100

9

90

8

80

7

70

6

60

5

50

4

40

3

30

2

20

1 10 1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017


NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

U.S. Production Rig Count U.S. OilOil Production && Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day 17

U.S. oil rig count Number of active rigs 1,700

15

1,500

13

1,300

11

1,100

Aug 9.20

9

900 Oct 737

7 5

700 500

3 2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

300 2019

NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 11/7/17. Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

U.S. Oil & Gas Employment Gasoline Demand Number of jobs (thousands) 420 380 340 300 260

Support activities for oil and gas operations

220

180

Oil and gas extraction

Sep 229 Oct 180

140 100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Crude Oil & Product Inventories Million barrels 550

2010-2014 range

2010-2014 average

2017

2016

2015

500

450

Aug 468

Sep 464

Aug

Sep

Oct 455

400

350

300 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May


Jun

Jul

Oct

Nov

Dec

NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 11/8/17. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Natural Gas Inventories Gasoline Demand 2010-2014 range

Trillion cubic feet 4.5

2010-2014 average

4.0

Aug 3.3

3.5

2017 Sep 3.5

2016

2015

Oct 3.8

3.0

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May


Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Gasoline Gasoline DemandInventories Million barrels 270

2010-2014 range

2010-2014 average

2017

2016

2015

260 250 240 230 Aug 227

220

Sep 220

210

Oct 213

200 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May


Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Distillate Gasoline DemandInventories 2010-2014 range

Million barrels 180

2010-2014 average

2017

2016

2015

170

160 150

Aug 148

140 Sep 135

130 120

Oct 129

110 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May


Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


Vehicle Miles Traveled Gasoline Demand Billion miles traveled 270 265

Aug 268

260 255 250 245 240 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide. SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.

Gasoline Consumption Gasoline Demand Million barrels per day 9.8

2010-2014 range

2010-2014 average

2017

2016

2015

9.6 Aug 9.57

9.4

9.2

Sep 9.48

Oct 9.35

9.0 8.8 8.6

8.4 8.2 8.0 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May


Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 11/8/17. Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

REGIONAL ACTIVITY



Oil & Gas Production TexasTexas Oil Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day 4.0

Texas natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day 40

3.5

35

3.0

30

2.5

25

2.0

20

1.5

15

1.0 1981

10 1985

1989

1993


1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Texas Production Count Texas OilOil Production && RigRig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day 9.5

Texas rig count Number of active rigs 950

8.5

850

7.5

750

6.5

650

5.5

550

4.5

Oct 450 441 350 Aug 3.37 250

3.5 2.5 1.5 2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

150 2018

NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

Texas Oil & Gas Employment Texas Mining Sector Employment Number of jobs (thousands) 210 190 170 150

Sep 141.57

Support activities for mining

130 110 90

Oil and gas extraction 77.30

70 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.

12-Month Total Rig Change by County


*Change in total rigs, from 10/28/2016 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

3-Month Total Rig Change by County


*Change in total rigs, from 7/28/2017 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

12-Month Oil Rig Change by County


*Change in oil rigs, from 10/28/2016 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

3-Month Oil Rig Change by County


*Change in oil rigs, from 7/28/2017 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

12-Month Gas Rig Change by County


*Change in gas rigs, from 10/28/2016 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

3-Month Gas Rig Change by County


*Change in gas rigs, from 7/28/2017 to 10/27/2017. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Crude Oil Production by State


NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for August 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Natural Gas Production by State


NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for August 2017. Series depicted is marketed natural gas production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Crude Oil Production by Region Million barrels per day 3.0 2.5

Permian Basin

2.0 1.5

Eagle Ford

1.0

Bakken

0.5

Niobrara Other areas

0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


NOTE: Series depict estimates after August 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Natural Gas Production by Region Billion cubic feet per day 30

Appalachia

25 20 15 Permian Basin Haynesville

10 5 0 2007

Other areas Eagle Ford 2008

2009

2010

2011


2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

NOTE: Series depict estimates after August 2017. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Energy Survey Business Activity In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business activity increased, not changed or decreased? Diffusion index 100 80 60 40 20 0 Q1 2016 -20 -40 -42.1 -60 -80 -100

13.8 Q2 2016

26.7

Q3 2016


40.1

41.8

37.3

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

27.3

Q3 2017

NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease. Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Breakeven Prices for New Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well? Dollars per barrel 100 90 Permian 80 (Midland) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Other U.S. (non-shale) SCOOP/ STACK

$46

$47

13

8

Permian (Delaware) Eagle Ford $48 $48


4 10 Number of responses

Permian (Central Platform) $50

$53

13

40

Other U.S. (shale) $55

8

NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 62 E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? Dollars per barrel 70 Permian 60 (Midland)

Permian (Delaware)

SCOOP/ STACK

50 40 30

$24

Permian (Central Platform)

Other U.S. Other U.S. (shale) (non-shale)

Eagle Ford

$27

$29

7

5

$33

$33

$35

$38

20 10 0 13


9 11 Number of responses

8

39

NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 60 E&P firms answered this question from March 15-23, 2017. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Additional Resources •

Energy Indicators –

•

Quarterly Energy Update –

•

A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District

Energy in the 11th District –

•

Concise analysis of the latest major developments and key changes facing global oil and gas markets

Dallas Fed Energy Survey –

•

A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector

Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin

Other energy articles and research


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