Education in Scotland versus the UK. â more questions than answers! .... SCQF level 6 or better. 2+ A-levels. S4. 0.0.
Education in a devolved Scotland: A quantitative analysis of attainment and inequality Gill Wyness, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics
The project: A comparative analysis of education in the UK • Quantitative analysis of official statistics on educational performance in 4 countries – From age 7 – compulsory schooling, post compulsory, further and higher education (1995-2011)
• Many difficulties in comparing official statistics • Data from TIMSS, PIRLS, PISA studies – Age 10-15 (2000-2009)
• Data from Millennium Cohort Study, Labour Force Survey • Educational outcomes and inequality • Review of policies and evaluation
Education and Scottish independence • Scotland’s devolved education system fares well in comparison to the rest of the UK • There are more similarities than differences in how pupils in the UK perform, despite increasing divergence in the sector • But there are still many young people leaving school with low level qualifications – and there are significant inequalities in our system • What can independence do to tackle these issues?
Education in Scotland versus the UK – more questions than answers! • Compulsory schooling – Up to age 16 Scottish children currently perform equally well in official exams and standardized tests – Little improvement in Scottish scores while England improves – Or is this merely grade inflation / gaming in England?
• Post 16 – Staying on rates and Higher attainment relatively low – Is this Scotland’s more modular system? – Or is it just due to difficulties in data comparison / FE?
• HE participation – Historically higher in Scotland – But degree participation level in England and Scotland – Many students are actually doing 1 and 2 year HNDs and HNCs
Education in Scotland versus the UK – more questions than answers! • Compulsory schooling – Up to age 16 Scottish children currently perform equally well in official exams and standardized tests – Little improvement in Scottish scores while England improves – Or is this merely grade inflation / gaming in England?
• Post 16 – Staying on rates and Higher attainment relatively low – Is this Scotland’s more modular system? – Or is it just due to difficulties in data comparison / FE?
• HE participation – Historically higher in Scotland – But degree participation level in England and Scotland – Many students are actually doing 1 and 2 year HNDs and HNCs
Age 7 – a level playing field? Ability at age 7 – reading and maths 60
standardized score (mean=50)
50
40
reading
30
maths 20
10
0 england
Source: Millennium Cohort Study, 2008
wales
NI
Scotland
Age 7 – a level playing field? (1) Raw scores in test
Reading age 7, MCS, 2008 England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
50.9 (9.76) 50.5 (9.43) 47.3 (10.53) 47.0 (46.92)
(2) Raw coefficient in each regression (compared with England)
(3) + control for demographics and parental education
-0.435 (0.267) -3.473*** (0.255) -3.946***
-0.900*** (0.300) -2.514*** (0.293) -3.814***
-0.226 (0.271) 0.036 (0.249) 0.421 (0.292)
-1.440*** (0.310) -0.308 (0.291) 0.032 (0.340)
Maths age 7, MCS, 2008 England
50 (10.12) Scotland 49.8 (9.42) Wales 50 (9.92) Northern Ireland 50.4 Source: Millennium Cohort Study, 2008 (9.94)
Controls: gender, ethnicity, FSM, parental education
Age 15/16 results – solid without improvement? % achieving 5 good Standard Grades / GCSEs
Standard Grade / GCSE or equivalent 90 80 70 60 50
England
40
Scotland
30
Northern Ireland
20
Wales
10 0 2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
academic year Notes: England : pre-2004/05 - % of 15 year olds achieving 5 GCSEs or equiv at A*-C; 2004/05 onwards - pupils at the end of KS4 achieving 5+ GCSES/equivalent at A*-C (maintained schools only) Scotland: % of S4 roll achieving 5+ Awards at SCQF level 4 or better (publicly funded secondary schools) Wales: % of pupils aged 15 who achieved the Level 2 threshold (figures include attainment at independent schools) NI : pre-2004/05 - % of school-leavers achieving 5 GCSEs/equivalent at A*-C; 2004/05 onwards - % of year 12s achieving 5+ GCSES/equivalent at A*-C (from all grant aided post primary schools in Northern Ireland)
Age 15/16 comparable results PISA maths, age 15
PISA reading, age 15
550
540
540
530
530
520
520 510
England
500
Scotland
490
510
England
500
Scotland
490
480
480
470 460
470 2000
2003
2006
2009
2000
2003
2006
2009
Source: PISA, OECD 2000-2008 Notes: OECD all country average=500
Indicative of grade inflation or subject choice in England?
Age 15/16 results – Scotland performs very well (1) Raw coefficient in (2) + control for each regression demographics and parental education
Maths, PISA 2009 Scotland Wales Northern Ireland Reading, PISA 2009 Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
(3) + additional controls for resources and socioeconomic status
6.151** (2.772) -21.99*** (3.672) 0.566 (0.428)
2.691 (2.683) -23.65*** (3.525) -2.009 (2.13)
9.070*** (2.359) -17.94*** (3.105) 3.745 (3.42)
5.732* (3.088) -19.12*** (4.090) 5.748 (4.698)
1.498 (2.995) -19.81*** (3.935) 3.265 (4.494)
8.271*** (2.645) -13.79*** (3.481) 9.210** (3.972)
Source: PISA, OECD 2000-2008 Notes: OECD all country average=500 Controls: gender, immigrant, books in household, socio-economic status
Compulsory schooling: inequality is apparent at age 15 PISA Maths age 15, 2009
600 500 400
Quartile 1 (poorest) Quartile 2
300
Quartile 3 Quartile 4 (richest)
200 100 0
England Source: PISA, OECD 2000-2008 Notes: OECD all country average=500
Wales
Scotland
NI
Compulsory schooling: inequality is apparent at age 15 PISA Maths age 15, 2009 ~Turkey average (44th in OECD)
~Hong Kong average (3rd in OECD)
600 500 400
Quartile 1 (poorest) Quartile 2
300
Quartile 3 Quartile 4 (richest)
200 100 0
England Source: PISA, OECD 2000-2008 Notes: OECD all country average=500
Wales
Scotland
NI
Education in Scotland versus the UK – more questions than answers! • Compulsory schooling – Up to age 16 Scottish children currently perform equally well in official exams and standardized tests – Little improvement in Scottish scores while England improves – Or is this merely grade inflation / gaming in England?
• Post 16 – Staying on rates and Higher attainment relatively low – Is this Scotland’s more modular system? – Or is it just due to difficulties in data comparison / FE?
• HE participation – Historically higher in Scotland – But degree participation level in England and Scotland – Many students are actually doing 1 and 2 year HNDs and HNCs
LFS data: Scottish staying on rates lower than England’s: but is this a problem? 90% 80%
% in any education
70% 60% 50%
Scotland England
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
age
Source: Labour Force Survey, 2011 Notes: includes school, FE college, Higher Education Institution; all qualification types Sample sizes: N=4,350 (Scotland); N=42,865 (England)
Higher Attainment: more difficulty with comparisons
Notes:
70 60 50 40
Wales
30
England
20
Scotland
10
NI
0 2010/11 2009/10 2008/09 2007/08 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04 2002/03 2001/02 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93
% of 18 year olds achieving 3+ highers or 2 or more A-levels
A-levels and Highers
academic year
England : pre 2005 - % 18 year olds with 2 or more GCE/VCE A level or equivalent; 2005/06 onwards % 18 year olds achieving 2 or more passes of A Level equivalent size (all schools and FE colleges) Scotland : % of the S4 year group achieving 5+ Awards (Higher or better) at SCQF level 6 (publicly funded secondary schools) Wales : % of 18 year olds achieving Level 3 or more (equivalent to 2 or more A-levels) (maintained secondary schools, special schools and Pupil Referral Units) NI: % of 18 year olds achieving 2 or more A-levels (including equivalents)
Higher Attainment: Low relative to England – but could be grade inflation? Attainment of the pupils who were in S4 in 2009/10 England (% of 18 year-olds) by the end of each stage (%) 3+ Awards at SCQF level 6 or better
5+ Awards at SCQF level 6 or better
S4
0.0
0.0
S5
26.3
12.1
S6
36.8
25.7
By end of Stage
Source: Scottish Government, 2011; DfE, 2011
2+ A-levels
52.1
Inequality: school leavers in Scotland 35.0
proportion achieving qualification
30.0 25.0 20.0 Most deprived
15.0
Least deprived 10.0 5.0 0.0 1-2 @ SCQF Level 6 3-4 @ SCQF Level 6 5+ @ SCQF Level 6 1+ @ SCQF Level 7 highest qualification of leaver
Source: Scottish Government, 2011
Inequality: school leavers in Scotland 80.0 70.0
proportion achieving
60.0 50.0 40.0
Most deprived Least deprived
30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 No quals
Any level 3
Any level 4
Any level 5
highest qualification of leaver
Source: Scottish Government, 2011
Level 6 or above
Education in Scotland versus the UK – more questions than answers! • Compulsory schooling – Up to age 16 Scottish children currently perform equally well in official exams and standardized tests – Little improvement in Scottish scores while England improves – Or is this merely grade inflation / gaming in England?
• Post 16 – Staying on rates and Higher attainment relatively low – Is this Scotland’s more modular system? – Or is it just due to difficulties in data comparison / FE?
• HE participation – Historically higher in Scotland – But degree participation level in England and Scotland – Many students are actually doing 1 and 2 year HNDs and HNCs
Higher Education: Traditionally Scotland does better % 16-30 year olds in Higher Education
60
50
40
30 England Scotland
20
10
0 2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
Source: Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC), Skills Funding Agency (SFA), Welsh Assembly Government, Office for National Statistics (ONS), Department for Education (DfE) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS). Note: HEIPR includes degrees, HND, HNC, other HE quals England HEIPR is defined as % 17-30 year olds in HE; Scotland HEIPR is calculated as % 18-30 year olds in HE
Higher Education: degree participation similar, but Scotland has more non-degree HE students 0%
Scotland
5%
proportion in Higher Education 10% 15% 20% 25%
35%
24%
under 21
6%
30%
England
25%
HNC/HND other HE degree
2%
10%
22+
Scotland
England
8%
Source: Labour Force Survey, 2011
Inequality is stark in Higher Education Pupils in S5 in each SIMD achieving 3 or more As at Higher in one sitting by local authority and SIMD, 2011 Poorest 20% to 40% to 60% to Richest 20 % 40% 60% 80% 20% Scotland Number 220 415 784 1220 1771 % 2.5 4.8 8.2 12.2 17.4 Dundee City Number 5 * * 17 41 % 1.4 * 17 8.1 21.7 Source: Guardian Data Blog, 2011
Conclusions • Despite divergence in policy, Scotland’s young people perform well in comparison to the rest of the UK • Comparison generates more questions than answers – Staying on rates – Post-compulsory attainment • Better data could help us understand this • Scotland (like the rest of the UK, and OECD) is still an unequal country • How has devolution /will independence help
