ETRI 2014 - SETIS - Europa EU [PDF]

3 downloads 251 Views 3MB Size Report
Institute for Energy and Transport .... Commercial solar PV system 0.1-2 MW . ...... reaching implications on how we source and produce our energy, how we ...
ETRI 2014 Energy Technology Reference Indicator projections for 2010-2050

Report EUR 26950 EN

European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and Transport

Contact information Johan Carlsson Address: Joint Research Centre, Westerduinweg 3, 1755 LE Petten, Netherlands E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: +31 224 565341 Fax: +31 224 565616

http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

This publication is a Science and Policy Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.

Legal Notice This publication is a Science and Policy Report by the Joint Research Centre, the European Commission’s in-house science service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policy-making process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.

JRC92496 EUR 26950 EN ISBN 978-92-79-44403-6 ISSN 1831-9424 doi: 10.2790/057687

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2014

© European Union, 2014

Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.

TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.1.1

Reviewers from other services of the European Commission: ............................... 6

1.1.2

The following external reviewers are also gratefully acknowledged: ................ 6

1.1.3

Editors ..................................................................................................................................................... 6

PREAMBLE ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 2

Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 2.1

Definition of parameters......................................................................................................................... 8

2.1.1 2.2

Parameters collected...................................................................................................................... 8

Discussion about selected parameters ........................................................................................ 10

2.2.1

Capital costs ..................................................................................................................................... 10

2.2.2

Quality of CAPEX data evaluation using NUSAP approach .................................... 11

2.2.3

Learning rates ................................................................................................................................. 12

3

Disclaimer............................................................................................................................................................... 13

4

Wind power ............................................................................................................................................................ 14

5

6

7

8

9

4.1

Onshore wind .............................................................................................................................................. 14

4.2

Offshore wind............................................................................................................................................. 15

Solar energy .......................................................................................................................................................... 18 5.1

Commercial solar PV system 0.1-2 MW ..................................................................................... 19

5.2

Commercial solar PV >2 MW without tracking........................................................................ 20

5.3

Commercial solar PV >2 MW with tracking ............................................................................... 20

5.4

Residential solar PV 100 MW ............................................................................... 25

6.2

Hydropower dam and reservoir, 10-100 MW .......................................................................... 25

6.3

Hydropower dam and reservoir, 2 MW without tracking Table 7. Reference indicators for commercial solar PV systems more than 2 MW without tracking. Technical Net electrical power Max. capacity factor Avg. capacity factor Module efficiency Technical lifetime Economical CAPEX ref CAPEX low CAPEX high Quality of CAPEX estimate CAPEX learning rate FOM VOM Environmental Direct GHG emissions Indirect GHG emissions Water consumed Water withdrawn Evolution Max. potential

Unit

2014

2020

2030

2040

2050

MW % % % years

6 17 13 15 25

17 14 17 25

17 16 20 25

17 17 25 25

17 17 30 25

€2013/kW €2013/kW €2013/kW

980 900 1400

800 650 900

580 470 650

520 420 580

%

16 1.7 0

14 1.7 0

640 520 720 low 12 1.7 0

11 1.7 0

10 1.7 0

l/kWh l/kWh

0 45 0 0

0 40 0 0

0 36 0 0

0 32 0 0

0 28 0 0

GW

-

-

-

-

-

% CAPEX ref

€2013/MWh tCO2(eq)/GWh tCO2(eq)/GWh

5.3 Commercial solar PV >2 MW with tracking Table 8. Reference indicators for commercial solar PV systems more than 2 MW with tracking. Technical Net electrical power Max. capacity factor Avg. capacity factor Module efficiency Technical lifetime Economical CAPEX ref CAPEX low CAPEX high Quality of CAPEX estimate CAPEX learning rate FOM VOM Environmental Direct GHG emissions Indirect GHG emissions Water consumed Water withdrawn Evolution Max. potential

Unit

2014

2020

2030

2040

2050

MW % % % years

20 21 18 15 25

21 19 17 25

21 20 20 25

21 21 25 25

21 21 30 25

€2013/kW €2013/kW €2013/kW

1450 1350 1700

1100 850 1400

790 610 1010

710 550 900

% % CAPEX ref €2013/MWh

16 1.5 0

14 1.5 0

890 680 1130 low 12 1.5 0

11 1.5 0

10 1.5 0

tCO2(eq)/GWh tCO2(eq)/GWh l/kWh l/kWh

0 45 0 0

0 40 0 0

0 36 0 0

0 32 0 0

0 28 0 0

GW

-

-

-

-

-

20

5.4 Residential solar PV