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BEYOND SYRIA IRAQ EXAMINING ISLAMIC STATE PROVINCES

KATHERINE BAUER, EDITOR

BEYOND SYRIA IRAQ AND

Examining Islamic State Provinces

KATHERINE BAUER EDITOR

THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY w w w.washingtoninstitute.org

The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the authors and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors.

All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2016 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 11111 19th Street NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 www.washingtoninstitute.org Design: 1000colors Cover illustration: Based on 5-year roadmap published by the Islamic State in 2016.

Contents



Acknowledgments | v



About the Workshop | vii

Contributors | ix

Executive Summary | xiii

Introduction | Matthew Levitt | 1

 PROVINCE TIES TO THE ISLAMIC STATE CORE ISLAMIC STATE IN LIBYA | Mohamed Eljarh | 7 IS IN THE SINAI | Mokhtar Awad | 12 THE ROLE OF TUNISIANS | Aaron Y. Zelin | 18 IS IN YEMEN | Katherine Zimmerman | 24

 WHAT MAKES THE PROVINCES TICK? GOVERNANCE | Aymenn al-Tamimi | 30 IDEOLOGY | Cole Bunzel | 36 FOREIGN TERRORIST FIGHTERS | Jean-Francois Pactet | 41 FINANCING | Katherine Bauer | 44

CONTENTS

 LOCAL POPULAR SUPPORT FOR THE ISLAMIC STATE SOCIAL MEDIA | Daveed Gartenstein-Ross | 50 PUBLIC POLLING | David Pollock | 60 SINAI PROVINCE | Muhamed Sabry | 66

 BEYOND THE MIDDLE EAST BOKO HARAM | Jack Gaines | 71 THE CAUCASUS | Anna Borshchevskaya | 75

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Acknowledgments

P

UBLICATION OF THIS workshop report and compilation would not have

been possible without the broad support of the staff at The Washington Institute. First, special thanks to the Blumenstein Family Foundation for their generous funding of my research. Many thanks to Neil Orman, multimedia editor, for his technical support of the workshop itself, and to the many summer interns and research assistants who helped it run smoothly, including Nour Aburish, AJ Beloff, Evan Charney, Catherine Cleveland, Omar Mukhlis, Maxine Rich, and Alexander Schnapp. Thank you also to the Fikra Forum, and its director David Pollock, as well as the Institute’s Program on Arab Politics, and its director, David Schenker, for cosponsoring the workshop with the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence.  Thank you to the Institute’s publications director, Mary Kalbach Horan, and editors Jason Warshof and Lisa Ferraro Parmelee for their patience and attention to detail. Finally, thank you to Matthew Levitt for his ongoing support and mentorship. Katherine Bauer November 2016

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About the Workshop

The crusaders and their apostate clients are under the illusion that, by expanding the scope of their military campaign to include, in addition to the provinces of Iraq and Sham, the provinces of Khorasan, the Sinai, and West Africa, as well as the Libyan provinces, they will be able to eliminate all of the Islamic State’s provinces at once, such that it will be completely wiped out and no trace of it will be left. In this, they are neglecting an important fact, which is that the whole world after the announcement of the Caliphate’s return has changed from how it was before its return, and that by building plans and developing strategies in view of a previous reality, they are making plans for a world that no longer exists at present, and will not exist in the future, God willing.

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