Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood ... - Library

dynamical response of the large ice sheets to warming is not yet well understood ... level rise is limited and the data series available are too short to determine .... be classified into five broad areas based on their origin (Manning and Petit,.
5MB Sizes 0 Downloads 179 Views
Scientific report ; WR 2009-05

Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands

Pier Vellinga, Caroline Katsman, Andreas Sterl, Jules Beersma, Wilco Hazeleger, John Church, Robert Kopp, Dick Kroon, Michael Oppenheimer, Hans-Peter Plag, Stefan Rahmstorf, Jason Lowe, Jeff Ridley, Hans von Storch, David Vaughan, Roderik van de Wal, Ralf Weisse, Jaap Kwadijk, Rita Lammersen and Natasha Marinova

De Bilt, 2009

KNMI scientific report = wetenschappelijk rapport; WR 2009-05

De Bilt, 2009 PO Box 201 3730 AE De Bilt Wilhelminalaan 10 De Bilt The Netherlands http://www.knmi.nl Telephone +31(0)30-220 69 11 Telefax +31(0)30-221 04 07

© KNMI, De Bilt. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission in writing from the publisher.

z z z z

Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands

International Scientific Assessment carried out at request of the Delta Committee The Netherlands, September 2008

Pier Vellinga, Caroline Katsman, Andreas Sterl, Jules Beersma, Wilco Hazeleger, John Church, Robert Kopp, Dick Kroon, Michael Oppenheimer, Hans-Peter Plag, Stefan Rahmstorf, Jason Lowe, Jeff Ridley, Hans von Storch, David Vaughan, Roderik van de Wal, Ralf Weisse, Jaap Kwadijk, Rita Lammersen, Natasha Marinova

This scientific report is a joint publication by Wageningen University and Research Centre / Alterra and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

-1-

-2-

Author Team

Convening author/ editor Pier Vellinga1 Introduction and Main findings Pier Vellinga1, Natasha Marinova1, Wilco Hazeleger2, Caroline Katsman2, Andreas Sterl2, Jules Beersma2 Chapter I - High-end projection for local sea level rise along the Dutch coast in 2100 and 2200 Caroline Katsman2, John Church3, Robert Kopp4, Dick Kroon56, Michael Oppenheimer4, Hans-Peter Plag7, Stefan Rahmstorf8, Jeff Ridley9, Hans von Storch10, David Vaughan11, Roderik van der Wal12 Thanks to: Catia Domingues3, Sybren Drijfhout2, Wilco Hazeleger2, Simon Jung5, Simon Tett5, Bert Vermeersen13, Neil White3 Chapter II - Winds and storm surges along the Dutch coast Andreas Sterl2, Ralf Weisse9, Jason Lowe8, Hans von Storch9 Thanks to: Hans de Vries2, Henk van den Brink2, Reindert Haarsma2, Erik van Meijgaard2 Chapter III - River Rhine discharge Jules Beersma2, Jaap Kwadijk14 and Rita Lammersen15 Thanks to: Adri Buishand2, Hendrik Buiteveld14, Alexander Bakker2, Albert Klein Tank2, Nick Raynard16 Addendum - Sea level rise in foreign policy documents Natasha Marinova1

1

Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, the Netherlands Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the Netherlands 3 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, and the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC 4 Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, USA 5 School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, Scotland 6 Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 7 Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology and Seismological Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno, USA; 8 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 9 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, UK 10 GKSS Research Center, Institute for Coastal Research, Germany 11 British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, UK 12 Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, the Netherlands 13 Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands 14 Deltares, the Netherlands 15 Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst, the Netherlands 16 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK 2