February 2012 Edition - Purple Strategies

February 2012 Edition

PurplePoll Why the PurplePoll? In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election. Produced by Purple Strategies, the PurplePoll will offer balanced analysis from our bipartisan team. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] or Bruce Haynes [[email protected]], at 703-548-7877.

February 2012

 Obama holds leads on both Santorum and Romney, but Santorum does better – the first time another GOP candidate outperforms Romney in Purple States. President Obama currently holds leads against the two top candidates in the GOP field. He leads Mitt Romney by 4 points (47% to 43%) and leads Rick Santorum by 2 points (46% to 44%). President Obama’s performance against Romney has been consistent since December, with leads ranging from 2 to 4 points. These results may bring into question Mitt Romney’s continued claim of electability. Since September, we have tested President Obama against Rick Perry, Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, and now Rick Santorum. Of all of these candidates, Rick Santorum is the only one to outperform Romney (albeit by a small margin) against President Obama in Purple America. Additionally, among independents, Romney trails by 3 points, while Santorum leads President Obama by 2 points (44% to 42%).  Swing state voters believe that the Republican campaign is weakening the field, and Romney’s personal popularity bears that out. A majority (53%) of Purple state voters believe that the campaign is weakening the eventual nominee, while just 21% believe that the campaign is strengthening the nominee. Republicans are also concerned about the impact that the campaign is having on their candidates, with 44% believing that the campaign is weakening the eventual nominee (32% strengthening). The campaign’s impact on Mitt Romney’s personal popularity has been palpable: today, just 27% have a favorable view of him, while 57% have an unfavorable view. In the first PurplePoll in September of last year, 32% had a favorable view (39% unfavorable). In other words, over the course of the campaign, Romney’s favorables in Purple states have declined by 5 points, while his unfavorables have increased by 18 points – a net decline of 23 points.  Republicans in Purple America view Rick Santorum much more favorably than they view Mitt Romney. Among voters overall, Rick Santorum is currently better liked than Romney: 38% hold a favorable view, and 43% have an unfavorable view. Among Republican voters, the results are dramatic: Santorum is much better liked (58%/24%) than is Romney (42%/41%). At the same time, President Obama has net negative job ratings: 44% approve, and 50% disapprove. While the President’s approval ratings have drifted upward this year, a 44% approval rating is dangerously low for a president seeking re-election. He has worse ratings among independents (39%/52%) than the Purple electorate as a whole. Additionally, there is an education gap: among those with a college degree or higher, 48% approve and 48% disapprove. Among those without a college degree, 42% approve and 51% disapprove.

 Voters are more satisfied with the direction of the country but are still in a sour mood. Voters believe the economy now belongs to President Obama, and they are divided on economic progress. In our November poll, we found that 20% believed the country was moving in the right direction, while 71% felt that it was seriously off on the wrong track. Our latest poll shows some improvement, but with voters having strong reservations about the country’s direction. Today, 32% believe the country is moving in the right direction, with a strong majority (60%) feeling the country is on the wrong track. This includes 64% of independent voters, and strong majorities across our four Purple state regions. Voters are more evenly divided when evaluating the direction of the economy, with 36% saying that it is getting better and 37% saying it is getting worse (26% “staying the same”). While the economy is showing signs of improvement, this divided result shows that voters are not yet sold on recovery. No matter the direction of the economy, voters believe that it belongs to President Obama. Overall, 56% of voters say that he is responsible for its current direction, compared to 31% who believe that Republicans in Congress are responsible.  Contraception, religious institutions and insurance: Framing the issue will be central to its political impact. Since the recent decisions by the Obama administration on contraceptive coverage, there have been numerous surveys released showing divergent results. The results appear to depend on how the questions frame the issue. In the PurplePoll, we asked whether voters approved or disapproved of “the way that President Obama handled the issue of insurance coverage for contraceptives.” With that question wording, a plurality (49%) disapproved, while 37% approved. A majority of independents (50%) disapproved of President Obama’s handling of the issue (34% approved). Nearly a quarter of Democrats (23%) disapprove of the President’s handling of the issue. Interestingly, results among Catholic voters are slightly better than among the Purple electorate as a whole: 39% approve of the job he did, while 48% disapprove. Among bornagain Christians, by contrast, just 21% approve of his handling of the issue (67% disapprove). Other polls on the issue show different results depending on the question frame. A CNN poll (February 10-13) showed that a majority (50%) disapproved of President Obama’s new policy, while 44% approved. However, in that same poll, 81% disagreed with the statement that “using artificial means of birth control is wrong.” And a New York Times/CBS News poll (Feb 8-13) found that 66% of voters support a federal requirement that health insurance companies pay for the full cost of birth control for women (26% oppose). These results point to the centrality of framing for this issue. Is it about access to contraceptives, or a referendum on President Obama’s handling of the issue? Is it about private choices, or about President Obama and the federal government interfering with religious belief? Polling indicates that the answer will be determined more by the questions voters form when thinking about the issue, rather than the policies themselves.

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

What is the PurplePoll? Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. These states were won by President Obama en route to his 365 electoral votes. Since 1996, nine of these states swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012. Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election. In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: “The Wild West” (CO, NV, NM), “The Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), “The Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA) and “The Southern Swing” (NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm. The poll was fielded 2/18-2/21, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1343 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.7. With regional oversamples, the margin of error for each regional cluster is no more than +/-4.3.

About Purple Strategies Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative. Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Media and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan. For more: www.purplestrategies.com

Analysis

PurplePoll

PurplePoll February 2012

Overall: Direction of Country

Obama Approval Approve: 44% Disapprove: 50% Not sure: 6%

Romney Favorability Favorable: 27% Unfavorable: 57% Not sure: 16%

+12 -11 0

Change from Sept.

+3 -3 -1

Change from Sept. -5 +18 -13

Santorum Favorability

The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia


Obama: 47% Romney: 43% Not sure: 10%

Responsible for Economy Obama: 56% GOP in Congress: 31% Neither: 8% Not sure: 5%

“Cares about people like you” Obama: 49% Romney: 39% Not sure: 13%

Obama: 47% Santorum: 42% Not sure: 10%

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico 2012: Obama vs. Romney

Getting better: 36% Getting worse: 37% Staying about the same: 26% Not sure: 1%

“Cares about people like you”

Favorable: 38% Unfavorable: 43% Not sure: 19%

The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Direction of Economy

Change from Sept. +4 -3 -1

GOP Nomination Process Strengthening nominee: 21% Weakening nominee: 53% Not sure: 26%

2012: Obama vs. Santorum

Obama handling contraception and insurance


Approve: 37% Disapprove: 49% Not sure: 14%

Overall

Right direction: 32% Wrong track: 60% Not sure: 9%

Change from Nov.

PurplePoll

Purple Tracking

February 2012

Direction of the Country

Obama Job Approval

80%

60%

71%

70%

60%

60%

Right Direction

40%

Not Sure

30%

20%

22%

41%

30%

32%

Dec. ‘11

Feb. ‘12

44%

50%

Sep. ‘11

45%

57%

47%

54%

60% 55% 50% 45%

39%

46% 43%

40%

32% 30%

Nov. ‘11

Dec. ‘11

Jan. ‘12

Feb. ‘12

47%

46%

47%

43%

44%

43%

Obama vs. Romney

60%

30%

29%

30%

27%

45% 45% Barack Obama

35%

Mitt Romney

30%

Not Sure

25%

10%

45%

0%

Romney Favorability

20%

41%

50%

Not Sure

10%

Nov. ‘11

40%

41%

50%

Approve

20%

0%

53%

Disapprove

20%

10%

52%

50% 40%

Wrong Track

50%

53%

20%

Unfavorable

15%

Favorable

10%

Not Sure

5%

0%

0% Sep. ‘11

Nov. ‘11

Dec. ‘11

Jan. ‘12

Feb. ‘12


Sep. ‘11

Nov. ‘11

Dec. ‘11

Jan. ‘12

Feb. ‘12

Overall

69%

PurplePoll

By Region 1 of 2

February 2012

The Wild West Direction of Country Right direction: 33% Wrong track: 61% Not sure: 6%



Change from Nov.

+11 -8 -2

Change from Sept.

+6 -5 -1




Direction of Country



Responsible for Economy

Obama Approval

Obama: 58% GOP in Congress: 29% Neither: 7% Not sure: 6%




2012: Obama vs. Romney


Change from Sept. +5 -1 -4



+12 -11 -1

Change from Sept.

-3 +2 +3





GOP Nomination Process


Strengthening nominee: 21% Weakening nominee: 59% Not sure: 20%

Change from Nov.


Direction of Economy Getting better: 37% Getting worse: 32% Staying about the same: 29% Not sure: 1%



“Cares about people like you” Obama: 47% Santorum: 42% Not sure: 12%

Change from Sept. 0 -5 +6











By Region

Romney Favorability

The Heartland

PurplePoll

By Region 2 of 2

February 2012

The Rust Belt Direction of Country Right direction: 26% Wrong track: 65% Not sure: 9%



Change from Nov.

+9 -9 0

Change from Sept.

-1 +1 +1




Direction of Country



Responsible for Economy

Obama Approval

Obama: 59% GOP in Congress: 28% Neither: 8% Not sure: 5%






Change from Sept. +2 0 -1



+15 -15 +1

Change from Sept.

+7 -4 -3





GOP Nomination Process


Strengthening nominee: 21% Weakening nominee: 53% Not sure: 25%

Change from Nov.


Direction of Economy Getting better: 37% Getting worse: 37% Staying about the same: 24% Not sure: 2%



“Cares about people like you” Obama: 47% Santorum: 45% Not sure: 8%

Change from Sept. +4 -3 0











By Region

Romney Favorability

The Southern Swing

PurplePoll

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

February 2012

The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Questionnaire 1 of 2

The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

Complete Questionnaire

% Total

Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney?

If the 2012 presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

%

%

%

Region

Gender

Jan’12 Dec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11

Male Female

Party

Education

GOP

Ind

Dem

Non-Coll Coll+

Right Direction

32

-

22

20

-

33

32

26

35

34

30

11

28

52

28

36

Wrong Track

60

-

69

71

-

61

59

65

58

60

60

84

64

36

62

56

Not sure

9

-

9

9

-

6

10

9

8

6

10

5

8

11

9

7

Approve

44

45

41

41

41

46

43

40

46

44

45

13

39

74

42

48

Disapprove

50

50

53

52

53

48

49

53

50

53

47

83

52

20

51

48

Not sure

6

6

6

6

7

6

9

7

4

4

8

3

8

6

7

5

Favorable

27

30

29

30

32

27

22

28

29

29

26

42

27

15

26

29

Unfavorable

57

54

47

45

39

57

61

57

55

57

56

41

58

69

56

57

Not sure

16

16

24

25

29

16

18

15

16

14

18

17

15

15

18

14

Favorable

38

-

-

-

-

33

34

42

39

41

36

58

38

23

41

35

Unfavorable

43

-

-

-

-

49

49

44

39

44

42

24

47

57

39

48

Not sure

19

-

-

-

-

18

17

15

22

16

22

18

15

21

21

16

Barack Obama

47

46

47

45

43

47

48

44

47

45

49

13

43

78

45

50

Mitt Romney

43

44

43

45

46

44

39

46

45

46

41

78

40

16

43

43

Not sure

10

10

11

11

11

9

14

10

9

10

11

9

16

6

12

8

46

-

-

-

-

46

47

43

47

44

49

13

42

77

44

50

44

-

-

-

-

47

42

48

45

47

41

79

44

15

45

44

9

-

-

-

-

7

11

10

8

9

10

8

13

8

12

6

If the 2012 presidential election were held today and Barack Obama Rick Santorum the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote? Not sure

Fielded 2/18-2/21, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1343 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.7. Regional margins of error (with oversamples) is +/-4.3.


QuestionNaire

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Rick Santorum?

%

PurplePoll

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

February 2012

The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Questionnaire 2 of 2

The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

Complete Questionnaire Complete Questionnaire

% Total

%

%

%

%

Region

Gender

Jan’12 Dec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11

Male Female

Party

Education

GOP

Ind

Dem

Non-Coll Coll+

36

-

-

-

-

37

37

32

37

38

33

15

32

55

32

41

Getting worse Staying about the same

37

-

-

-

-

36

32

41

37

37

37

58

41

18

42

31

26

-

-

-

-

26

29

26

24

24

28

25

26

25

24

28

Not sure Not sure

1

-

-

-

-

1

1

0

2

1

1

1

1

1

2

0

Barack Obama

56

-

-

-

-

58

57

59

55

58

54

72

49

48

53

60

GOP in Congress

31

-

-

-

-

29

28

28

33

28

33

16

34

42

34

26

Neither Not sure

8

-

-

-

-

7

11

8

8

9

8

7

12

7

8

9

5

-

-

-

-

6

4

5

5

5

5

6

4

4

5

4

Which candidate do you think cares more about people like you: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama

49

-

-

-

-

47

51

46

47

46

51

15

45

79

47

51

Mitt Romney

39

-

-

-

-

40

33

40

43

42

36

70

38

14

39

38

Not sure

13

-

-

-

-

14

16

15

10

13

13

15

18

7

14

11

Which candidate do you think cares more about people like you: Barack Obama or Rick Santorum?

Barack Obama

47

-

-

-

-

43

47

44

47

45

49

14

42

79

45

50

Rick Santorum

42

-

-

-

-

45

42

43

45

45

40

76

44

14

43

41

Not sure

10

-

-

-

-

12

12

12

8

9

11

10

14

8

12

9

21

-

-

-

-

21

18

21

23

25

18

32

20

14

20

23

53

-

-

-

-

59

56

53

51

55

51

44

55

60

50

57

26

-

-

-

-

20

26

25

26

20

31

25

25

25

30

20

Approve

37

-

-

-

-

41

34

34

39

35

39

13

34

61

34

42

Disapprove

49

-

-

-

-

47

49

53

48

53

45

78

50

23

50

47

Not sure

14

-

-

-

-

12

17

13

13

12

16

9

16

16

16

12

Who is more responsible for the way the economy is going now: Barack Obama or Republicans in Congress?

Do you believe the Republican presidential Strengthening nominee nomination process is strengthening or weakening the eventual Republican presidential nominee Weakening nominee for the general election against Barack Obama? Not sure

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Obama handled the issue of insurance coverage for contraceptives?

Fielded 2/18-2/21, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1343 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.7. Regional margins of error (with oversamples) is +/-4.3.


QuestionNaire

Getting better

Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same?