Feng Shui Index Feng Shui Index - CLSA

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Feb 4, 2011 - Clearly, like Monty Python's killer Rabbit of Caerbannog ('the most foul, cruel and bad-tempered ...... an
Feng Shui Index

Feng Shui Index 2011 CLSA FENG SHUI INDEX

01-03

We’ve cast the bones, tested the waters, sniffed the wind and sat at the feet of the masters. Here is how we see the Hang Seng Index performing in 2011

OVERVIEW

04-05

What’s in it for you? Plenty. This guide to the guide has got the lot, at a glance

MONTHLY FORECASTS

06-09

From February’s Wood Tiger all the way to the Earth Cow, with snapshot panels and notes of lucky and unlucky dates

RABBITS IN REVIEW

10-11

We look back at how well the market performed under the past five Rabbits

SECTOR FORECASTS

12-15

Using the most elementary analysis, we assess the outlook for 10 key sectors

YOUR HOROSCOPE

16-27

The year ahead for each of the 12 zodiac signs, from the Rat to the Pig, featuring quick-flick panels for the time-challenged

FAMOUS FACES

28-30

The year ahead for Ben Bernanke, Julia Gillard, Zhang Xin, James Tien, Bugs Bunny and Kim Jong-un

MINEFIELD MAP

31

A quick guide to locating and disarming the year’s three key sources of bad energy

HK PROPERTY GUIDE

32-33

‘Hot’ and ‘not’ plots, plus killer corridors and knowing when to just keep quiet

ALL-POINTS BULLETIN

34

Rewarding things to do with a handful of pebbles, a few keys and a pink envelope

2011 YEAR OF THE RABBIT 4708 WESTERN CALENDAR

CHINESE CALENDAR

Self-important notice Before turning inside, please ensure your tongue is located firmly in one or other cheek, that the knee-hee bone is connected to the leg-pull bone, and that you’ve signed the official humour waiver.

THE CLSA FENG SHUI INDEX 2011

Reading it right It may be little more than wind and water, but we’d wager that the art of feng shui interpretation can be just as complex (and certainly arcane) as trying to discern head-and-shoulders patterns, Elliott waves and the like amid the market’s tidal flows, trends and fever lines. Not to worry, though. As ever, we’ve done all the heavy-lifting, leaving you to take it or leave it - along with the caveat carried by all our Feng Shui Index forecasts since we started publishing them in 1992: Keep a few grains of salt handy and note that, although we put a lot of hard slog into the reports and consult widely, our tongue is firmly in our cheek. What to make of the riot of colour and action at right? For master of the market such as yourselves, it should be pretty straight up and down (but not too much of the latter, we hope). We use a fortune scale from +5 to -5 to indicate what we expect the relative monthly movements of the Hang Seng Index to be during the next year, based on our consultations with feng shui experts, tempered by our own inhouse assessments. As you’d expect, we have piled on plenty of added value too, noting, for example, the likely best and bumpiest dates ahead, including potential game-changers such as eclipses and season turns. This year, we also highlight sectors set to soar. Bon appetit and bonne chance!

THE YEAR OF THE WHITE RABBIT

THE CLSA FENG SHUI INDEX 4708

Hoppy days are hare again: As index rises rabbitly, hopportunities abound Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

Money Bunny’s call

BUMPY

GOOD

GOOD/GREAT

GOOD

GOOD/BUMPY

GREAT

GOOD/GREAT

BUMPY

GREAT

GOOD/GREAT

BUMPY

GREAT

+5 Eclipses and key seasonal changes +4

1 2

3 4 5

02 Jun 16 Jun 01 Jul 25 Nov 10 Dec

1

Partial solar Total lunar Partial solar Partial solar Partial solar

2 3 4

21 Mar 22 Jun 23 Sep 22 Dec

+1

Oops! Not the most brilliant start to the year What money there is this month comes from northwest

Sometimes ‘good’ means just being able to take stock

Note the first of the year’s four best dates

Take a bit of extra care around the spring equinox

Take care around the solar eclipse

Much better for the markets Look to the west for your money, but move quietly

Northwest is still best for money

0 WOOD EARTH FIRE

-2

METAL WATER

Just remember: This too shall pass Continue looking to the northwest for your money

Money swings back again to the northwest

1

1

-1

Beware a pack of disconcerting dates: two of the worst for luck, plus two eclipses and the solstice

A good month - but get set for another tumble

+3 +2

The year’s most auspicious dates

Not as good for the market, but chance of getting value for a song

Vernal equinox Summer solstice Autumnal equinox Winter solstice

1

2

1 2

1

2

04 Aug

3

15 Nov

4

16 Jan

The year’s most inauspicious dates 1

2

16 Jun

22 Jun

3

4

23 Sep

15 Dec

Great month for the market; pile in boots and all Note the second of the Rabbit year’s best dates Don’t be caught out as money swings around to the southwest

3

2

3

2

14 May

3

3 Still many reasons to be cheerful, but be Boy Scout prepared as well

We have colourcoded the months here and elsewhere through the report based on their dominant feng shui element: wood, earth, fire, metal or water.

4

Still running well, but getting tough at the top; make sure you squirrel some nuts away

Seek your coins within the centre

Things may get a little hare-y from here; but this will bring some excellent opportunities

-3

Keep yourself tidy around the equinox; no time for big risk-taking

-4

Back up again and going hard; ride this rally for all it’s worth Skittishly, money has now moved to the southeast

Note the third of the good dates, and an eclipse Money is again trying its luck from the centre

5 4

4

4

This Bunny is quite a bouncer; and so it’s down we go once again Keep your eyes peeled for the trio of unpleasant dates on the way Money settles back where it started the year, in the northwest

That’s the way to finish: aim for the top right pocket Note the last of the year’s best blessed dates And money sees the year out by coming at you from the west

Money comes to you from the east

-5

WOOD TIGER

WOOD RABBIT

EARTH DRAGON

FIRE SNAKE

FIRE HORSE

EARTH SHEEP

METAL MONKEY

METAL ROOSTER

EARTH DOG

October

November

December WATER RAT

EARTH COW

04 Feb - 05 Mar

February

06 Mar - 04 Apr

05 Apr - 05 May

06 May - 05 Jun

06 Jun - 06 Jul

07 Jul - 07 Aug

08 Aug - 07 Sep

08 Sep - 07 Oct

08 Oct - 07 Nov

08 Nov - 06 Dec

07 Dec - 05 Jan

06 Jan - 03 Feb

Omens favour :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Omens favour f :

Banks Wealth

Wealth Wealth

March

Financials

1

Career

April

Gaming

Health

May

Hotels

Love

June

Utilities

Health

July

Con staples Wealth

August

Internet

September

Career

Shipping

2

Love

Wealth

Property

Wealth

WATER PIG

h Construction Health

Airlines

Career

January

Banks

Love

N

ot since Kathleen Turner’s supervamp Jessica (‘I’m not bad, I’m just drawn that way’) vavavoomed on to the big screen almost 23 years ago has the appearance of a rabbit attracted such enthusiasm. At 12.32pm on Friday, 4 February 2011 (otherw (otherwise known as Li chun, the first day of spring and the Wood Tiger lunar month of the Ch Chinese year 4708), a reputedly placid, person personable and prescient white Rabbit (heave (heavenly stem: metal; earthly branch: wood; polarity: yin) will wrest the reins from the de decidedly unpleasant and erratic Tiger that’s b been tossing and turning the markets over the th past 12 months. We hate to say we told you so but . . . who are we kidding? We love saying it! We don’t get the chance too often, so we reckon our 2010 ccat calls are worth crowing about (see page 5 and never mind that kink in the tail). With Vonnie Chan tossing the old oracle bones for her second year, we also foresaw gold ggoing for a gallop (although well shy of our US$2,000/oz target), silver’s secondhalf surge, su the rise and rise of soft commodities’ p prices, Hong Kong property being hit with a policy slap, and the ‘Rudd’s a dud’ destab destabilisation Down Under. Wha What then can we expect from the year now la lappin’ at our feet? Lots of luck, if the Rabbit Rabbit’s reputation is any guide - as many a bootle bootless bunny could testify. And best of all for investors, inv indirect wealth such as marketmade moolah will be the order of the day. That’s if this bunny runs true to type rather than fo following the records of its most recent skittish predecessors (see p10-11). The male and fe female of the species aren’t known as buck and a doe for nothing, we hope. That said, with 2010’s celestial domestic dispute (between the metal heavenly stem and w wood earthly branch) set to continue,, we’d do well to expect the unexpected, d, an although volatility should be less violent than we’ve seen on the Tiger’s watch. eSpeaking of meat-eaters, this year’s bonew, throwing oracular duties fall to Philip Chow, nd a man known for his Baltic Dry humour and ng seersucker suitability. May the Hang Seng bounce the right way and the best luck of the Bunny be with you! 3

It is written Sometimes it is better to know when to exit than when to enter.

It shall be As Western economies doubledip through the Doldrums, the name-shame blame game takes aim . . . and gives China a shiner in the old WTO.

Cradle of civilisation rocked by baby boom.

Major technological breakthrough in space tourism, the blast frontier.

WHAT’S GOING ON IN HERE

It is written Wise men learn more from fools than fools learn from the wise.

An embarrassment of riches?

W

hat’s it all about, Alfie? As good a question now as it was back in the mid-1960s. Or, for that matter, from the moment the first chap stood up on two legs and looked about. Apparently the answer is not Douglas Adams’s ‘42’, appealing as that may be to some. Feng shui is one way of trying to make sense of it all (especially that perennial poser about why markets move the way they do and when, seemingly with no regard for where you happen to have parked your money). When it comes to applying feng shui to finance - particularly predicting the performance of the Hong Kong market over the next 12 months - nothing comes within a bull’s roar of our annual CLSA Feng Shui Index, which is quite possibly the best (if not necessarily the most accurate) rough guide to the ‘other side’ this side of paradise. Here, at a glance, is your guide to the guide.

Short, sharp monthly snapshots Presumably you’ve already pored over our illustrated ed forecast for the Hang Seng Index under the beneficencee of the Bunny (pages 1-3). Next up are our month-by-month snapshots (pages 6-9), from February’s Wood Tiger (looks bumpy) to next January’s Earth Cow (looks jumpy), featuring ‘in a nutshell’ panels with need-tond notknow stuff such as: Money Bunny’s overall call; good and so-hot dates; must-watch sectors and best directions for money.

Any A n bunny seen a rabid old Rabbit?

It shall be Japan’s decades of deflationary decline into dotage are inadvertently reversed overnight by suave Londonbased CLSA chap intent on cornering the market in 16th-Century Flemish mahogany rolltop escritoires.

The T he past is another country, apparently, and it can be ins instructive to see how differently they do things - or n Looking back (pages 10-11), most of the recent no not. R Rabbits ended up being bounders, but they could b rather caddish along the way. We only hope our be little bloke is just as jumpy, but better behaved.

Try our all-new T ll sector-vector t detector Emboldened by the relative success of our calls on thee d Tiger’s turns during 2010 (see the chart opposite) and basically because you asked for it, we have stuck ourr necks out even further by forecasting the outlook for nine key sectors under our coverage, plus gold and all that glisters (pages 12-15). This element-based analysis was tougher than we’d expected. And not surprish the results ingly, some of our wiser sector heads beg to differ with that we arrived at. Oh well, they have their way, and we have our feng shui.

GUIDE’S GUIDE TO THE OTHER SIDE

A good year’s worth anyway What fates await these famous faces? Almost as fascinating as reading about ourselves is learning what’s in store for those we know - or simplyy know about. Who made the final cut for our popu-lar forecasts for famous faces this year (pages 28-30)? Our inclusion of Bugs Bunny may seem a no-brainer, but who knew he was actually a Metal Dragon (and a crypto-Marxist - although more of a Groucho-ite QEI EIII than a Karl-toon). We also buzz Helicopter Ben as he steers his QEII through still-stagnant waters, and find out why Australia’s first female Prime Minister is a born leader and apparently set for a great year. So, too, it seems, is North Korea’s ‘Brilliant Comrade’ and hare apparent Kim Jong-un. Hmm.

Not a plot you can do about it N No Back B a once again after its launch last year, our feng s sh shui guide to Hong Kong property (pages 32-33) may no be as well received this time, given its identificanot ti of two ‘killer corridors’ where investors would tion d well to tread warily. No need to be down in the do dumps, though. For feng shui fans, there’s more to figuring out the property market than ‘location, location loc t location, location’ (although that has its place). Check out where is hot, where is not and why you really need to know what that Wu Wang is planning.

Directions, connections and big bad bruisers Speaking of the Wu Wang, otherwise known as the malevoevolent Five Yellow star, these two easy guides (page 31 plus the ajor centrespread) are all you’ll need to keep sweet with the major he sources of bad energy this year. What brings a smile to the lldial of the Tai Sui? What will make kittens of the Three Killn ings? And why should you put a pair of pink envelopes in the north of your home or office? The answer, my friend,, n may well be blowing in the wind. Or perhaps flowing in the water. We’re pretty sure it’s not 42, anyway.

How did we go last year? Since you ask . . . CLSA Feng Shui Index Hang Seng Index

A dozen dazzling destinies in one zodiac power pack Hong Kong launches series of subliminal public-service announcements: ‘Don’t forget to breathe’; ‘Be nice to tourists’; and ‘Got your handkerchief?’

What does the Big Bunny have in his bag for you this year? We’ve got the inside word, so read all about it in our popular horoscopes for each of the zodiac signs ((pages (pa g 16-27). Again, in a bid to make life easier for the time-challenged, we’ve added at-a-glance panels the tha highlight the likes of your ‘money direction’, best that tim of day and lucky numbers. Plus there’s a ‘four time e easy bites’ snapshot with advice about your health, w wealth, love and career (which may sound disconcertingly like your mother) and a monthly chart of the outlook for you in each of these key areas. 4

It is written Some men dream of fortunes, while others dream of cookies.

Apart from the Water Pig plunge in early November, we didn’t do too badly in predicting the Hang Seng Index’s performance for the Year of the Tiger. A nice change for those of us whose forecasting owes so much to spirits.

5

It shall be Google knows what you’re thinking and what you just did.

North Korea’s ‘dear leader’ Kim Jong-il (no, he’s just having a lie-down) makes strong case for reloonification.

ONE MONTH AT A TIME . . .

04 February - 05 Marchh

Direction

Month’s omens favour :

for money

Wealth

Move over mangoes! Clear off komodos! The durian takes the world by storm, rebranded as the Smellin’ Melon: the curl-up-and-diet fruit that never goes off it just smells that way.

Love

Hotels

Just when you thought the old growler had finally given up the ghost, the White Rabbit opens the adventure by promptly disappearing down a hole. All very well for bears caught short (this is a wood month after all), but perhaps it’s best for the rest to consider ourselves blessed simply that spring has sprung and a new year begun. A couple of admonitions during this bumpy beginning: incline to the horizontal; and decline the pervertical. Remember that the raisin d’être of dried fruit is to help prune the posterior and repair the interior. Health is wealth and happiness is all. Don’t let that tired and tiresome Tiger get the best of you: Grab the bull by the horns and get set for a much better ride ahead.

Expect the market to slither slideways. The threat of money loss in the east plus foreknowledge of the fall that often follows in the wake of the Snake suggests a call to charms - even something as seemingly simple as a glass of still water in a strategic sector can boost your luck. The first of the year’s especially auspicious dates offers the opportunity to give thanks, while the partial solar eclipse hints of darkness and leaner times ahead. Committed carnivores would do well to give the steak intake a break, bearing in mind that one man’s meat is another man’s poisson. And although love may be little more than genetically modified snake oil, it nonetheless measures one of life’s truly great pleasures.

06 March - 04 April

Direction

Month’s omens favour :

for money

Career

Financials

Fire Fi ire Horse Hors

GOOD BUMPYY

GOOD D

for money

Month’s omens favour :

Health

Utilities

Carrot days: June 06, 12, 24, 28 & 30 Sticky dates: June 09, 16, 21, 22 & 27, July 01 & 06

Not exactly a turn up for the books, but at least that strong southerly should have blown itself out. Not quite a turnaround, but we’ll be heading east at least, now that the Rabbit has found its feet (albeit not yet its lucky one). Although the overall direction is horizontal, expect plenty of bunny-money bounce on the bourse. Beware those slides of March especially, and watch your sox at the equinox. The month is amok with doubles both good and bad: wealth in the northwest; celebration in the west; robbery in the north; plus a ‘cross-swords’ killer combination in the centre that could lay you low with the ‘dreaded lurgi’. Not unlike healthcare reform, this month repays patience, particularly as it peters out.

The habit of the Rabbit is to bound along the ground, to twist and turn like a butter churn yet never make a sound. Hard for those in pursuit to mane-tain their equine-nimity while riding a fiery steed intent on putting you down. A trio of treacherous dates awaits with nothing much to buck you up. Don’t fret, pet: keep your limbs loose (tai chi, yoga or a trampoline) and your mind sharp (acupuncture, calculus or crosswords) and you’ll be ready to fly come July. Keep a tight rein on and close track of your unexpected expenditures. And if love languishes, banish the gloom from your room by reading some of the more amusing and erotic perverses of e.e. cccummings.

Earth Ea artth D Dragon r g

Earth arth S Sheepp

05 April - 05 May

Direction

Month’s omens favour :

for money

Health

Gaming

07 July - 07 August

Direction

Month’s omens favour :

for money

Wealth

Cons staples

Carrot days: April 14, 15 & 17, May 02 Sticky dates: April 08, 10, 19 & 28

Carrot days: July 19, 20 & 31, August 04 Sticky dates: July 07, 17 & 21, August 02

Finally, the scales are tipping in our favour, with the west the best for wealth. Like the fabled scaly flyer, the market may well soar high and dive low, but the trend is towards the top-right pocket. There are no outstandingly great or grate dates, but this can be a magical month for those with stamina, smarts and the win beneath their wings. It’s a swingin’ time for singles and doubly so for pairs, with the likelihood of many love matches (and we’re not talking tennis). A steady diet of diuretics and accidental emetics will ensure all systems are go. Indeed, the chances are that you’ll enjoy health so rude as to be insulting. Read widely, elide weirdly and consider melatonin for circadian dysrhythmia.

It’s the real thing at last: Expect four score and more as the Bunny bashes bouncers to the boundary and beyond. The once-hesitant Hare-today-gone-tomorrow gets its groove on and a move on, leapin’ from sheep to sheep like foot-andmouth. The market will barely be able to keep abreast. Signs of the lambs suggest you can ride the tide for weeks yet (note that 4 August promises to be particularly profitable), and then lock in gains before the Rooster crows. Rest well and don’t reheat meat unless it’s peppered with salt. Indeed, why not smoke a few juicy joints in the comfort of your home? A couple of small hams and hickory to begin, perhaps, graduating to hippopotami thigh with an afterburn of alderwood.

6

It is written A horse may have strength to run a thousand miles, but without a rider it knows not where to go.

06 June - 06 July Direction

Carrot days: March 09, 18 & 29, April 02 Sticky dates: March 08, 15, 21 & 23, April 01

GREAT T

Solution posited to Buddhist koancum-Confucian conundrum concerning the sound of one hand clapping: A pause.

for money

06 May - 05 June Month’s omens favour :

Carrot days: May 14, 24 & 27, June 05 Sticky dates: May 07, 13, 22, 29 & 31, June 02

GREAT GOOD D

It shall be

Direction

Carrot days: February 04, 08 & 20, March 04 Sticky dates: February 09, 12 & 18, March 03

Wood W oodd R Rabbit ab

Philippines economy flatlines after Western Union wires crossed.

Banks

Fi ire Snake Snak Fire

GOOD D

g Woodd Tiger BUMP BUMPY

It is written The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it.

. . . FROM THE TIGER TO THE COW

7

It shall be Brocade accolade backfires as artillery rains on parade; general amnesty leaves several admirals all at sea.

Thailand SETs economic-growth land record of 1,000 smiles/hour.

ONE MONTH AT A TIME . . .

Last year’s breakthrough antisocialnetworking site Inyourfacebook morphs from viral to violent, resurfacing as Fistinyourfacebook.

Career

Internet

W aterr P ig Water Pig

08 November - 06 December Direction

for money

Month’s omens favour :

Health Construction

The weather may be cooling at last, but the market should still be running pretty hot from what we can plot. Now is a particularly coney canny time to fatten the bonus by taking advantage of a frailty of all-too-human nature: as the home paddock hoves into view, most of us unwittingly relax. Keep your wits about you and your eyes peeled for opportunities. The partial solar eclipse of 25 November may well mark the onset of winter chills and ills, with the brat-rat pack scuttling about in the shadows of the dark days ahead. A holiday may not be possible or advisable, but there are always books, and a weekend amid the madness of PG Wodehouse’s Blandings Castle may be just the ticket.

Metal R Rooster

Water Rat R

08 September - 07 October

Direction

Month’s omens favour :

for money

Love

Shipping

BUMPY

No dread-letter days, no purple haze, no bad moon rising . . . but no matter. The key monkey takeaway this month is that the market is still moving onward and upward, despite some yoyo-ing along the way. It’s a spunky monkey, indeed, but the chimp may be a little limp, his scamper hampered by the pull of the earth. Sprinkle water liberally, although not loosely. As the wealth weeks weaken, fill your boots, pop on a chute and prepare to bail - it’s not only the seasons that are set to turn. Work may seem a joke at times, and not an especially amusing one, but if you yearn to steer your career into more challenging waters, these weeks bode well. Confront your demons. Or at least be on nodding terms.

Direction

for money

Month’s omens favour :

Career

Airlines

Carrot days: December 13, 16, 18 & 19, January 05 Sticky dates: December 10, 15, 17, 22 & 28, January 02 & 03

Opposites may attract and it takes all kinds, but it’ll be a cold day in Hello Kitty City (aka Sanrio Town) before the coney and the cock get cosy on the couch. We’re in for quite a feng shui fracas when the pusillanimous heavy-metal pair squares off this month, Meanwhile, summer swelters towards the solstice and the market melts like a sidewalk sorbet. Yet, as the mercury slides north and the bourse courses south, the thoughts of many will turn to love. In terms of diet, don’t bin the skin of the mandarin. Far better to intake the pith. Which brings us to this: Why did the Chicken cross the Rhode Island Red? Depends which you think came first - there’s always another side to these things.

Oh, woe. And if only it would whoa down, we’d be home and hosed rather more quickly and comfortably. But then, life is apparently not so much about the destination as the journey (a claim that has been credited to all manner of wise and wizened chaps, from Socrates to Aerosmith’s Steven Tyler). Certainly, there’s much to be said and learned from the sometimes trying twists and turns along the way. The month is packed with pairs and triplets, including a disaster double in the east and three of the year’s most disconcerting dates. Chin up, button up and perish the thought. After a few deep breaths, reframe and accentuate the positive: tough times are merely opportunities for clever clogs to shine.

Earth arth Dog Dg

Earth arth C Cow

08 October - 07 November

Direction

Month’s omens favour :

for money

Wealth

Property

Direction

06 January - 03 February Month’s omens favour :

for money

Love

Banks

Carrot days: October 17, 18 & 20, November 07 Sticky dates: October 23, 25 & 27, November 04

Carrot days: January 06, 10, 15, 16 & 22 Sticky dates: January 12, 17, 19 & 26

Merde, how absurd: the bunny and the bird. But that was hen and this is bowwow - and all the omens indicate a monster of a money month for the markets, with the index threatening to go so high only a dog can hear it. Canine plus coney makes for sweet milk and honey and the time is ripe to fill your pail and raid the swarm, as wealth of all shapes and sorts swells up from the south. But remember that money isn’t everything - indeed without your health it’s nothing (mind you, Cap’n Bob-bob-bob Maxwell reckoned it was nothing either way and anyway). It’s usually best to resist the spirits; stick to water and fresh juices. And relax to the contrapuntal delights of Bach.

Everyone likes to finish on a positive note, don’t they? Well, apart from Lenny ‘The Koan’ Cohen, perhaps. The old brown cow is racing to the close with all the pace of a Pamplona bull in mid-July, but rather more northerly. And as the curtains come down on the year, we would do well to reflect. Consider, for example, the cunning of coneys such as Br’er Rabbit (‘Don’t fling me in dat brier-patch’); meditate, perhaps, on the maudlin delight of melodies such as The Bunny Banks of Loch Lomond or simply celebrate the verses of such men of lettuce as Rabbie Burns (‘Ne’er break your heart for love, just turn the boat about’). After all, as nice George concluded: ‘All things must pass.’

8

It is written He who leads an ox to drink must first wet his own feet.

07 December - 05 January

Carrot days: September 11, 17 & 29, October 02 & 04 Sticky dates: September 10, 14, 23 & 26, October 03

GREAT

Germany pegs the euro to the renminbi; Beijing refinances Dublin; and Irish cement manufacturers recover faster than an Indonesian infrastructure play.

Month’s omens favour :

Carrot days: November 15, 20 & 24, December 02 Sticky dates: November 09, 18, 25 & 27, December 06

BUMPY

US savings rate more than triples, taking per capita annual amount to US$5.27, two buttons and one of those plastic things out of a Cheerios box.

for money

08 August - 07 September

Carrot days: August 16, 19, 31, September 01 Sticky dates: August 10, 13, 27 & 28

GREAT

It shall be

Direction

GOOD GREAT GREA

Me etall M o y Metal Monkey

GOOD GREAT

It is written To lend without prospect of repayment is to throw a fleshy bone at a dog.

. . . FROM THE TIGER TO THE COW

9

It shall be Najib-nomics reforms face plenty more Mahatirs before bedded-down time.

S’pore explores laws to force pause in cash-splash rash of join-theRed-Dots merger mania; feng shui M&A holds sway as inflation-fear-fuelled consolidation grips island nation.

LEPORIDAE WE HAVE KNOWN

Dow Jones Industrial Average*

04 Feb 1951 252.77

THE 60-YEAR CYCLE ROLLS ON

04 Feb 1952 269.78

It is written

T

There are many paths to the top of the mountain, but the view is always the same.

1951 1951: The Year of the Metal Rabbit 04 Mar: US Fed gains independence; McChesney Martin is new chairman 05 April: Rosenbergs sentenced to death for selling atomic secrets to USSR 23 May: China suppresses uprising in Tibet; Dalai Lama flees to India 14 Jun: Univac, first commercial computer, demonstrated in Philadelphia 23 Jun: British diplomats-cum-spies Burgess and Maclean flee to USSR 25 Jun: First commercial colour-TV broadcast, to four US cities by CBS 04 Jul: W Shockley invents junction transistor; helps launch Silicon Valley 10 Jul: Talks open to end Korean War; they continue for two more years

It shall be US Fed funds a serio-comic series of left-field ‘baby bubbles’ in a bid to restart the stalled economy from the loony fringes. Failed-to-fly targets included: Space (Hubble bubble) Gaming (double bubble) Agriculture (ara-bubble) Urban-renewal (rubble bubble) Voiceovers (dub-bubble)

04 Feb 1963 682.00

Dow Jones Industrial Average*

Prisons (trouble bubble) Fast-food (inedi-bubble)

04 Feb 1964 783.29

hose who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. With that well-worn warning of philosopher, aphorist and Water Pig George Santayana in mind, we cast a nervous, mnemonic glance back at the past five bunnies. So much for peace and tranquillity. More rabid than rabbit, these five furry Furies delivered doom and gloom, death and destruction, upheaval, overthrow, meltdown, breakdown, tumult, treachery and Super Glue. Markets weren’t immune, bouncing around like a bag full of bunnies ready for roasting.

1963: Water Rabbit 17 Mar: Mt Agung volcano in Indonesia erupts, killing 1,900 20 May: Sukarno appointed first president of Indonesia 20 Jun: USA and USSR agree to “hot line”, after Cuban Missile Crisis 16 Sep: Federation of Malaysia established; opposed by Indonesia

Clearly, like Monty Python’s killer Rabbit of Caerbannog (‘the most foul, cruel and bad-tempered rodent you ever set eyes on’), these bolshie bunnies can do with close watching. No wonder the Australians built that fence.

04 Feb 1999 9,438.65

1975: Wood Rabbit 10 Mar: Final North Vietnamese assault begins; all over by 30 April 01 May: US broking commissions deregulated; Schwab cuts prices 07 Aug: Dam collapses in Henan province killing up to 230,000 15 Nov: Inaugural summit of the G6 leading industrial nations Hang Seng Index

04 Feb 1975 209.15

Hang Seng Index

03 Feb 2000 15,968.12

1999 1999: Earth Rabbit Quakes and floods throughout the year kill tens of thousands in Asia 11 Aug: Total solar eclipse 12 Oct: World population hits 6bn 15 Nov: US negotiators agree to pact allowing China to join WTO 01 Jan: Y2K bug proves illusory; Putin becomes president of Russia

04 Feb 1976 434.48

1975

04 Feb 1987 2,636.63

1987: Fire Rabbit May: Black Dragon Fire destroys 8m ha along China-Russia border 12 Jun: In Berlin, Reagan urges Gorbachev: ‘Tear down this Wall.’ 19 Oct: Hong Kong triggers global market crash, ending five-year bull run; Dow drops 22.6% on the day 29 Dec: Prozac goes on sale Hang Seng Index

1987

Adult entertainment (hubba-bubble) * The Hang Seng Index wasn’t published until 24 November 1969 10

It is written The death of the heart is the saddest thing that can happen to you.

1951: China and the USA are at war (under cover of a family feud in Korea). The Dow seems to track every advance and retreat. Ends up, at least. Unlike the war. 1963: Water Rabbits are reputedly as placid as a pond on a lazy summer’s day, but the Dow sometimes seems to be taking its cue from Niagara Falls. 1975: Barely five years old, the HSI staggers like a drunk, finds its feet, goes nowhere, eyes the top-right pocket - and drops down a mine shaft en route. 1987: The exact trigger still inexplicable, Black (Swan) Monday takes the legs out from under an exuberant five-year bull run. Exit, pursued by a bear. 1999: Buoyed by the billions spent bracing for the Y2K bogey, the HSI tugs on its Boy Scout woggle, sets its jaw and marches resolutely onward and upward.

1963

Men’s haircare (stubble bubble) Cosy elites (club-bubble)

Rabbits in their element

11

03 Feb 1988 2,354.46

It shall be Our Christmaspudding currency mix (mind you don’t mash a molar on a sixpence): pound pounded; euro trashed; greenback buckles; rupee gets loopy; yuan rises and shines; dong goes wrong; rupiah . . . oh, my de-aarrr; yen says ‘when’ and becomes zen; Sing doll on a roll; franc my dear I don’t give a dime; and in technical terms it’s Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oi! Oi! Oi!

THE CLSA SECTOR-VECTOR DETECTOR

METAL M ETAL

M METAL ETAL

WOOD

Kevin Chan HONG KONG & CHINA FINANCIAL RESEARCH

Helps fire Helped by water Hinders earth Hindered by metal

It should be pedal to the metal from go to whoa for financials, bar a bout of ‘blowtorch to the belly’ in June-July, courtesy of the Fire Horse. Kevin Chan isn’t so bullish about betting the bank on the bunny, particularly during what he sees as a tough 1H11. Ne’er a burrower nor a lender be?

Symbolising growth, creativity and innovation, wood brings money luck Best months: June, July Bumpiest months: September, October

Snap forecast:

GOOD YEAR Strong, powerful and even dangerous, fire symbolises activity and transformation Best months: June, July, August Bumpiest months: May, December, January

Burrowing into the sectors

F

eeling chuffed at having called most of the Hang Seng’s leaps and rebounds under the terrible Tiger, we decided to really stick our necks out this time and have a stab at the outlook for nine key sectors and go-go-gold. After all, there are only five elements versus the zodiac’s dozen animals. How beastly could it be? Jolly beastly, considering that even the most learned masters often can’t agree on basic elementary classifications. Agriculture, for example, crops up as wood or earth, while aviation flies as fire, metal or water. And they’re just two of the A’s. Forecasting each element’s monthly influence (and thus an associated sector’s likely performance) seems to be as much about horticulture as haruspicy, what with heavenly stems and earthly branches that swap partners every solar year to form one of 60 possible permutations. And so the esoteric calculations go on, becoming more unwieldy as they ensnare the months, days and even hours. Never fear, we’ve done all that mind-numbing number-crunching and hernial heavy-lifting for you. Our conclusion, in a nutshell: metal is hot; water is bubbling; fire is on fire; wood would if it could; and earth looks rather soiled. ELEMENT Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Gaming Water

WAT WATER TER

W WATER ATER

Aaron Fischer CONSUMER & GAMING RESEARCH

FIRE OIL & GAS RESEARCH

FIRE

FIRE

Oil & Gas

FIRE

GOOD YEAR Double, double oil to bubble? Not likely. Indeed, fire is dire at the spud and plug ends of the year. But between times, Oil & Gas is in for a flare share of flow. David Hewitt is not one to gush or be feng-swayed by a motley crude of ethereals. If you like omens, he says, watch inflation.

12

YEAR GOOD

GOOD BUMPY

BUMPY GREAT

GREAT

MONTHLY

EARTH Helps metal Helped by fire Hinders water Hindered by wood Snap forecast:

BUMPY YEAR Earth, another strong and powerful element, represents stability. Best months: October, November, January Bumpiest months: February, March Toilers of the soil Agriculture (alt: wood), building materials, cement, chemicals (alt: fire), construction, developers, government (alt: metal), hotels (alt: water), human resources, cosmetics (alt: fire), cosmetic surgery, insurance (alt: metal), management, resources (extraction) pharmaceuticals, plastics, property, security (alt: metal), soft commodities

SUPPORTERS

Vector detector

HOT LIST

Fire

Fields of fire Accounting, advertising (alt: water), aviation (alt: water; metal), economics, electrical, entertainment, energy, fast food, foundries, internet (alt: water), lasers, oil & gas, petrochems, power generation, services, technology (alt: water), telecoms (alt: water), utilities (alt: water)

Jan

METAL

Does it get any bettor? You u betcha! ter sparkles. When metal shines, water Those with a penchant for a punt d chips. ch hips. Slim can fill up on stakes and d some pickings over June-July and cto ober lean Dog days during October won’t be enough to wipee El the grin off the face of ‘El r r. Solo Toro’ Aaron Fischer.

David Hewitt

Oct Nov Dec

EARTH

GREAT YEAR

FIRE FI IRE F FIRE IRE

Aug Sep

FIRE

WATER TER

Jul

WOOD

WATER

SECTOR WATER

Helps earth Helped by wood Hinders metal Hindered by water

Financials GREAT YEAR

GOOD/BUMPY YEAR

FIRE

METAL

Metal

Snap forecast:

Wood stakes Agriculture (alt: earth), education (alt: metal), fashion, forestry, furniture, garments, packaging, pulp & paper, plantations, politics, printing, old media, retail, soft commodities (alt: earth), textiles

METAL

ELEMENTARY, MY EAR! WHAT’S ON?

Banks Finance Gaming

METAL

Gold Metal

Hotels Utilities Staples Internet Shipping Property Construct Airlines Banks

META METAL AL

M METAL ETAL

Tsai Shen Yeh WEALTH GOD

GREAT YEAR We’re putting this in n the t hands ai Shen of the wealth god Tsa Tsai -caarat triple Yeh, who has a 24-carat eigght on conviction Overweight meetals. precious and rare metals. do olinium Gold, silver and gadolinium lovves thee . . . the wealth god loves go oing lot and sees prices going go o! ballistic. Ingots are go!

13

Metal medals

M METAL ETAL

7+(&/6$6(&7259(&725'(7(&725

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