Investors see the Thai stock market as remaining .... and other interested parties to be able to use such information as
FETCO Investor Confidence Index Report April 2017 FETCO ICI Compared to SET Index 200
1,650
160
1,550
140.68 128.81
102.99 104.55 120.59 1,450 110.24 103.84 90.33 95.69
118.37 102.74 114.90 100.46 96.14 104.46 101.94 94.30 98.12 102.42 95.61 93.48 90.36 88.07 74.35 71.90 78.39 80 60.06 58.05
120
1,350
Jun-17
Apr-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
FETCO ICI
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
1,150
Apr-15
0
May-15
1,250
Mar-15
40
SET Index (RHS)
Note: Investor Confidence Index surveys four groups of investors— retail investors, local institutional investors, proprietary trading group, and foreign investors— using a diffusion index with a range from 0 to 200. The index readings are divided into five levels: very bullish; bullish; neutral; bearish; and very bearish.
Trends in Investor Confidence by Type of Investor (-43.74%) (-17.71%)
(0.00%)
133.33
132.00
106.41
87.56
Retail
(-28.03%)
75.00
Proprietary Traders
100.00 100.00
95.00
Local institutes
Foreign
Feb-17
Research Contributors
Mar-17
FETCO Investor Confidence Index (ICI) for the next three months fell 18.06% dropping into neutral territory for the second month in a row. Investors continue to closely monitor foreign conditions especially in the US and Europe which may affect international capital flows. However, investors still have confidence in the domestic economic recovery, and feel that it can help alleviate the impact of global uncertainties. Investors see the Thai stock market as remaining neutral over the next three months as they wait for clarification of the economic and political situations abroad. Banking (BANK) sector was the most attractive for investment while Finance (FIN) drew the least investor interest. FETCO Investor Confidence Index (ICI) for March stood at 90.33 (within the range from 0 to 200), a decrease of 18.06% from last month's 110.24, with the index remaining in neutral territory. With regard to each investor group, foreign investors remained neutral at 100, the ICIs for local institutional investors and retail investors were also neutral at 95 and 87.56 respectively, while the proprietary trading group’s ICI was bearish at 75.
FETCO Investor Confidence Index Report April 2017 Investor Confidence Compared to SET INDEX 200 1,650 160
1,550
120
100.001,450 95.00 87.56 75.001,350
80 40
1,250
0
1,150 SET Index (RHS)
Retail
Local institutes
FETCO INVESTOR CONFIDENCE INIDICES 87.56 75.00 95.00 100.00
RETAIL ICI PROPRIETARY ICI LOCAL INSTITUTES ICI FOREIGN ICI 64.29% 24.07%
11.64%
Bullish
Neutral
Bearish
Retail ICI 50.00% 25.00%
Bullish
25.00%
Neutral
Bearish
Proprietary ICI 65.00% 20.00%
15.00%
Bullish
Neutral
Bearish
Local Institutes ICI 50.00%
25.00%
Bullish
25.00%
Neutral
Foreign ICI
Bearish
Foreign
Proprietary trading
FETCO ICI Criterion (161-200) (121-160) (81-120) (41-80) (0-40)
Extremely Bullish Bullish Neutral Bearish Extremely Bearish
ICI survey results at the end of March showed investor confidence declining in all groups, especially within the proprietary trading group which fell from bullish territory into bearish. Local institutional investor confidence dropped from bullish to neutral while the retail investor ICI fell but remained in neutral territory, the same as the previous month. As for investment trends over the next three months, investors think the market is likely to remain in the neutral range primarily due to international pressures. These include the movement of capital between countries, changes in US monetary policy, and the economic situation in Europe, in addition to risks arising for the domestic political situation. Meanwhile, factors boosting investor confidence include the government stimulus package, the overall domestic economy, the capital flow between countries, and the performance of listed companies. Investors are interested in Banking sector securities which have a low base value and which benefit from both public and private investment; Construction Services since bidding will be opened for the majority of government investment projects in the second half of the year; Energy & Utilities as the price of oil stabilizes; and the Health Care Sector as earnings recover after revenue begins to increase in time to record the expenses from business expansion in previous years. Meanwhile, the sectors that investors found least attractive were Finance & Securities, Media & Publishing, Fashion, and Paper & Printing Materials, all of which depend primarily on domestic consumption.
Note: The domestic institutional group includes asset management companies, government pension fund, insurance companies and life insurance Research Contributors
FETCO Investor Confidence Index Report April 2017 Most Influential Factor Driving the Stock Retail Investors
View capital inflow/outflow as having the greatest positive impact on investor confidence followed by domestic economic growth and government policy. Proprietary Trade Group Regard the domestic economy, earnings of listed companies, and the ratio of imports to exports as boosting investor confidence. Local Institutional Investors See the domestic economy as the main factor underpinning confidence followed by listed company earnings. Foreign Investors Consider the government stimulus policies as the main factor bolstering investor confidence followed by the domestic economy.
13.04% 20.00%
Other factors
8.70%
Monetary policies by FOMC
Import/Export
20.00%
Listed Companies' Performance
13.04% 20.00% 10.91%
Capital Flight
13.04% 21.56% 25.00%
26.09% 20.00% 18.18%
Domestic economy growth
75.00%
4.35%
Government policy
14.03% 0%
20%
40%
Foreign investors Proprietary Traders
60%
80%
Local institutes Retail investors
Most Important Factors Impeding the Market Retail Investors
See the volatility of capital inflow/outflow as creating the most uncertainty among investors followed by the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED). Proprietary Trade Group Consider the US Federal Reserve (FED) monetary policy, capital flow, and the Eurozone economy as being the biggest drags on investor confidence. Local Institutional Investors Continue to view the capital inflow/outflow and US FED monetary policy as having the biggest negative impact on investor confidence. Foreign Investors Worry about the flow of capital and the political situation as negative factors dragging down the stock market. Research Contributors
8.33%
Domestic economy growth
8.62% 4.17%
EU economy situations
2.09%
20.00% 50.00%
Political Situations
7.31% Monetary policies by FOMC
20.00% 17.49% 8.33%
Capital Flight
0%
33.33%
50.00%
20.00% 26.37% 20%
Foreign investors Proprietary traders
40%
Local institutes Retail investors
60%
FETCO Investor Confidence Index Report April 2017 Industrial Sectors Most Attractive to Investors
อุตสาหกรรมที่น่าสนใจที่สุด 40.00% 25.00% 25.00% 15.08%
50.00%
25.00% 5.03%
BANK
10.00%
ICT
8.73% 5.00%
5.03%
PROP
CONS
8.47%
25.00% 5.00%
ENERG
25.00% 9.26%
3.97%
HELTH
Retail Investors
25.00%
12.17%
5.03%
FOOD
Proprietary Traders
TOURISM
Local Institutes
MEDIA
Foreign
Retail Investors Consider the Banking sector as offering the most attractive investment opportunities, followed by Tourism & Leisure and Food & Beverage. Proprietary Trade Group See the Banking, Health Care Services, Property Development, and Media & Publishing as the most interesting sectors for investments. Local Institutional Investors View the Banking sector to be the most attractive, followed by Electronic Components and Information & Communication Technology. Foreign Investors
Most regard Construction Services as offering the most interesting investments, followed by the Banking and Energy & Utilities sectors.
Industrial Sectors Least Attractive to Investors 50.00% 6.08%10.00%
5.82%
AGRI
25.00% 16.40%
PROP
25.00%
25.00%
FASHION
7.41%10.00%
5.56%
FIN
PAPER
STEEL
Retail Investors
25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 8.20%10.00% 13.49% 15.00% 3.17%
MINE Proprietary Traders
MEDIA Local Institutes
Retail Investors Consider the Fashion sector as having the least attractive investment opportunities, followed by Media & Publishing. Proprietary Trade Group Believe that the Finance & Securities sector is the least interesting, followed by Media & Publishing and Energy & Utilities. Local Institutional Investors Most view Media & Publishing as being the most unattractive sector for investors followed by Steel and Mining sectors.
ENERG Foreign
Foreign Investors
Regard the Mining, Fashion, Paper & Printing Materials, and Property Development sectors as all unattractive for investing.
Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO)
[email protected] 02 009 9370-3 Disclaimer The FETCO Investor Confidence Survey is prepared by the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO) whose objective is to develop and promote statistics related to the Thai capital market as a tool to analyze the directional trends of the stock market for the next three months in order to allow investors and other interested parties to be able to use such information as a guide reflecting overall economic conditions. Thus, this index is prepared as a forecast of capital market movement by a diverse group of investors with varying opinions. The parties preparing the index do not guarantee the correctness of the information provided and are not responsible for any losses incurred from use of the information. The parties preparing this information retain lawful rights to its content, and If the information provided in this document or any component thereof is referred to or published in any manner whatsoever, whether it be text, images, content, or presentations, or if any party copies, forges, reproduces, modifies, publishes, or takes any other action for commercial exploitation or unlawful use of the information without prior permission, whether in part or in whole, the parties preparing this information reserve the right to take any action as allowed by law.
Research Contributors
