Nov 17, 2008 - Find us at: www.lapopsurveys.org. Subscribe to our Insights series at:
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China in Latin America: Public Impressions and Policy Implications Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Associate Director of LAPOP & Associate Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University Mitchell A. Seligson, Founder and Director of LAPOP Centennial Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University Dinorah Azpuru, Wichita State University Kang Liu, Duke University and Shanghai Jiaotong University, China
LAPOP and the AmericasBarometer
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The
LAPOP Central at Vanderbilt Unites a Consortium of Partners across the Americas
The AmericasBarometer 2004-2012: 178,864 Interviews
2012: 26 countries 41,632 interviews (min. 1,500/country, with margins of error +/- 2.5%)
2004
2012
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The only regional survey using handheld computers, with software developed by academic partners in Costa Rica and Bolivia: • • • •
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Each Survey Round is Preceded by Extensive Training and Pre-testing (1,116 versions for 2012)
Pretesting in Honduras
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Pretesting in Costa Rica
Pretesting in Mexico
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The Importance of Extensive, In-Person Pretesting
Now we are going to talk about your views with respect to some countries. When we talk about “China” in this interview, we are talking about mainland China, the People’s Republic of China, and not the island of Taiwan.
Some People Do Not Have Opinions about “Difficult” Foreign Affairs Questions
Which of the following countries has the most influence in Latin America/the Caribbean?
Percent
Other
60.4%
China
20.1%
Don’t Know/Didn’t Respond
19.5%
Wealthier, More Educated, and Male Citizens Respond More to “Difficult” Foreign Affairs Questions F=137.113 N =17336 Caribbean
Central America/Mexico
Wealth
95% Confidence Interval Standardized Regression Coefficient
Education
Age
+
— Decreases Response Rate
Female
Increases Response Rate
Urban -0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
95% C.I. (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; dv=response=1, nr=0 (.a, .b) on for1; v47
0.6
Citizen Views on China in the Americas
Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Associate Director of LAPOP & Associate Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University Mitchell A. Seligson, Founder and Director of LAPOP Centennial Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University
What Do Citizens of the Americas Think of China’s Influence in their Region? KEY POINTS: •
20% view China as the most influential country
•
23% believe China will soon be the most influential
•
Country average evaluations of China in the region range from neutral to positive
Costa Rica
39.8%
Venezuela
36.7%
Guyana
On average, one out of five (20%) of citizens in the Latin American and Caribbean region believes CHINA is the most the most influential country in the region.
32.9%
Panama
32.8%
Belize
29.6%
Ecuador
25.5%
Jamaica
24.4%
Peru
24.0%
Mexico
23.7%
Brazil
19.7%
Chile
17.0%
Bolivia
16.4%
Argentina
16.3%
Paraguay
15.6%
Uruguay
14.6%
Trinidad & Tobago
14.4%
El Salvador
FOR1. … Which of the following countries has the most influence in Latin America/the Caribbean?
11.9%
Haiti
10.9%
Guatemala
10.6%
Dom. Rep.
10.4%
Colombia
10.3%
Nicaragua
9.9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
China Has Most Influence in Region 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; v47; 19% NR included in denominator
(a) China; (b) Japan; (c) India; (d) U.S.; (e) Brazil; (f) Venezuela; (g) Mexico; (h) Spain; (i) Other/DK
Costa Rica
49.5%
Jamaica
46.9%
Guyana
On average, nearly one quarter (23%) of citizens in the Latin American and Caribbean region believe China will soon be most the most influential country in the region.
38.6%
Venezuela
32.7%
Panama
31.0%
Trinidad & Tobago
27.3%
Belize
26.3%
Mexico
25.8%
Ecuador
24.6%
Uruguay
24.5%
Peru
24.4%
Chile
21.4%
Bolivia
20.3%
Brazil
FOR4. And within 10 years, in your opinion, which of the following countries will have most influence in Latin America/the Caribbean?*
19.5%
Argentina
17.6%
Colombia
16.7%
Dom. Rep.
16.3%
Nicaragua
14.7%
Paraguay
13.0%
Guatemala
12.1%
El Salvador
11.4%
Haiti
10.3%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
China Will Have Most Influence 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; v47; for4, recoded with 24% NR in denominator
(a) China; (b) Japan; (c) India; (d) U.S.; (e) Brazil; (f) Venezuela; (g) Mexico; (h) Spain; (i) Other/DK *NR = 24%
Venezuela
71.5
Costa Rica
68.4
Jamaica
68.4
Panama
67.2
Nicaragua
67.0
Guyana
66.6
Trinidad & Tobago
66.6
Paraguay
66.4
Belize
65.7
Haiti
65.2
Dom. Rep.
64.1
Peru
63.6
Guatemala
63.4
Brazil
63.3
El Salvador
62.9
Chile
62.4
Colombia
62.3
Ecuador
61.3
Bolivia
59.4
Uruguay
58.5
Argentina
57.6
Mexico
FOR2/FOR3. And thinking of [China] and the influence it has in Latin America/the Caribbean, do you think that this influence is very positive, positive, negative or very negative? Questions answered on a 1-5 scale converted here to 0-100, where higher values are more positive.
53.0
0
20
40
60
Average evaluations of China’s influence in the region range from neutral to positive.
80
Evaluation of China's Influence 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; v47; reversed for2/for3, "no influence" and NR excluded.
Excludes 2% who respond “no influence” and, as well, nonp respondents.
Yet, Brazil’s and Japan’s Influence in the Region is Viewed Somewhat Positively Than China’s*
Mean Evaluation of Country's Influence, Regional Average 72
68.4
FOR2. And thinking of [Country] and the influence it has in Latin America/the Caribbean, do you think that this influence is very positive, positive, negative or very negative?
China
Variable is scaled from 0 to 100, where higher values reflect more favorable mean evaluations.
71.4
71
70.2
70 69 68 67 66 Brazil
Japan
* Data reflect responses given only by those indicating that country as the most important regional influence. Excludes “no influence” and NR respondents.
What Do Citizens of the Americas Think of China’s Influence in their Country? KEY POINTS: On average, China is seen as having “some” influence within respondents’ countries
• •
Yet, these perceptions vary significantly
•
On average, relations with China are perceived to be growing closer
•
Country average evaluations of China in the region range from neutral to positive •
Yet,, these perceptions vary significantly
Venezuela
82.5
Costa Rica
81.8
Jamaica
Considering their country, on average individuals in Latin America and the Caribbean perceive China as having “SOME” influence.
75.6
Panama
74.5
Guyana
70.2
Mexico
69.6
Dom. Rep.
69.2
Uruguay
67.0
Trinidad & Tobago
67.0
Paraguay
65.8
Belize
65.8
Nicaragua
64.6
Peru
63.8
Argentina
62.9
Ecuador
62.3
Chile
61.7
El Salvador
58.2
Brazil
57.8
Colombia
57.3
Guatemala
55.9
Bolivia
53.7
Haiti
52.9
0
20
40
60
FOR6. And thinking now only of our country, how much influence do you think that China has in our country? Coded here so that 0=None; 33=A Little; 66=Some; 100= A Lot Approximately 16% do not respond. 80
Influence of China in our country 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
100
Regional average = 66.
On Average, Citizens in the Latin American and Caribbean Region Perceive Relations between their Country and China to be Growing Closer Trend With China
22.3
Closer Trend With The United States
14.4
Trend With Russia
More Distant
-13.7
Trend With Iran
-19.3
Trend With Israel
-19.5 -20
-10
0
10
20
30
95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
Now I would like to ask you about the relations in general of our country with other nations around the world. When you think of our country’s relationship with [country], would you say that in the last 5 years our relationship has become closer, more distant, or has it remained about the same, or do you not have an opinion? Question answered on a 1-3 scale from “More distant” to ‘Closer”; converted here to -50 to 50.
Considering their Country, on Average Citizens in the Latin American and Caribbean Region Have Positive Evaluations of China’s Influence
No influence 1% (Very) negative 12.5%
Neutral 23%
(Very) positive
63%
FOR7. In general, the influence that China has on our country is very positive, positive, neither positive nor negative, negative, very negative? Coded so that “Very positive and positive”, “Very negative and negative” are combined. Excludes NR=4.5%
Perceptions of China's Influence in the Country Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP; v47; for7; not including NR
Jamaica
71.3
Haiti
70.6
Venezuela
69.8
Costa Rica
But, there is important variation across countries and regions.
69.3
Dom. Rep.
68.3
Paraguay
68.3
Nicaragua
67.4
Panama
67.3
Trinidad & Tobago
66.1
Guyana
65.2
El Salvador
64.4
Peru
64.1
Belize
63.7
Brazil
63.4
Colombia
63.0
Guatemala
61.7
Chile
61.3
Ecuador
61.1
Bolivia
FOR7. In general, the influence that China has on our country is very positive, positive, neither positive nor negative, negative, very negative?
59.7
Argentina
59.6
Uruguay
59.0
Mexico
54.3
0
20
40
60
80
Evaluation of China's Influence in R's Country 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP; v47; "no influence" and NR not included.
Question answered on a 1-5 scale from ‘Very positive” to ‘Very negative’, converted here to 0-100. The chart shows means (not percentages) where higher values indicate a more positive influence.
Jamaica
70.3
Nicaragua
70.1
Dom. Rep.
67.3
Trinidad & Tobago
67.3
Paraguay
66.5
Venezuela
66.1
Costa Rica
65.8
Belize
Average evaluations of the influence of Chinese business on development are also moderately positive.
63.4
Guyana
63.0
El Salvador
62.7
Haiti
62.3
Chile
61.4
Panama
These evaluations also vary by country.
60.5
Peru
59.7
Guatemala
59.2
Colombia
59.1
Brazil
58.4
Ecuador
FOR8. How much do you agree with the following statement: “Chinese business contributes to the economic development of [country]?
56.8
Uruguay
55.5
Argentina
52.5
Mexico
51.4
0
20
40
60
80
Chinese business contributes to the economic development of the country 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
Question answered on a 1-5 scale from ‘Strongly agree” to ‘Strongly disagree’, converted here to 0-100. The chart shows means (not percentages) where higher values indicate greater agreeableness.
Costa Rica
Considering their own country, only 16%, on average, select China as the model for development.
34.8%
Jamaica
32.7%
Venezuela
24.5%
Guyana
24.3%
Ecuador
18.0%
Mexico
17.9%
Brazil
17.2%
Peru
16.7%
Colombia
16.6%
Trinidad & Tobago
16.2%
Panama
16.0%
Chile
15.3%
Bolivia
FOR5. In your opinion, which of the following countries ought to be a model for the future development of our country?
13.1%
Belize
12.3%
Dom. Rep.
12.2%
Nicaragua
12.0%
Uruguay
11.1%
Paraguay
10.8%
Haiti
10.5%
Guatemala
(a) China; (b) Japan; (c) India; (d) U.S.; (e) Brazil; (f) Venezuela; (g) Mexico*; (h) Spain; (i) Other/DK
10.4%
El Salvador
8.5%
Argentina
8.1%
0
10
20
30
40
50
China Ought to be Model for Future Development 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012; v47; for5 recoded with 19% NR in denominator.
*Customized so that in these three countries, r’s own country was not mentioned.
Citizens’ Attitudes Toward Global Powers in Comparative Perspective Dinorah Azpuru, Ph.D., Wichita State University Member of the Scientific Support Team at LAPOP
Comparing the perception of influence Which country has the most influence in Latin America and the Caribbean?
China 20.3% Other Countries or No Answer 38.9%
United States 40.8%
Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
www. LapopSurveys.org
The U.S. is perceived as having more influence but mostly in the non-ALBA countries.
Assessing the type of influence (average results across all 24 AmericasBarometer countries)
China
Figure shows results for respondents whose first choice in FOR1 was either China or the U.S.
FOR2. And thinking of (__)_ and the influence it has in Latin America/the Caribbean, do you think that this influence is very positive, positive, negative or very negative?
United States
Positive influence: 68.2% China vs. 62.2% United States.
Assessing the type of influence (only ALBA countries)
China
United States
Positive influence: 67.6% China vs. 54.3% United States.
Future influence? (average results across all 24 AmericasBarometer countries) Within 10 years which country will have the most influence?
China 23.8% Other Countries or No Answer 46.0%
United States 30.2%
Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
Role models for development? (average results across all 24 AmericasBarometer countries) Country
Percentage
Japan
12.4%
Brazil
7.0 %
Venezuela
2.1 %
Mexico
1.7 %
Singapore
1.4 %
Russia
0.8 %
India
0.7 %
South Korea
0.6 %
Our own model
9.4 %
Other
1.8 %
No answer
18.3 %
Role models in ALBA countries: Venezuela is the only country in which China www. surpasses the U.S. LapopSurveys.org
Trust in China and in the United States (percentage who think the government of that country is very or somewhat trustworthy) 58.7%
Panama
51.6%
Guyana
51.5%
Venezuela
50.6%
Jamaica
49.0%
Costa Rica
46.5%
Chile Peru
57.6% 55.7% 52.5% 51.3%
Peru
48.7% 46.4%
Ecuador
33.0% 32.8%
Argentina
58.3%
Brazil
33.3%
Colombia
62.9%
Costa Rica
Colombia
34.6%
Bolivia
69.0%
Honduras
38.3%
Dom. Rep.
69.0%
Panama
Trinidad & T.
36.9%
Haiti
69.9%
Jamaica Dom. Rep.
41.2% 38.4%
Ecuador
71.4%
El Salvador
40.3%
Honduras
80.1%
Haiti
43.2%
Nicaragua Paraguay
Guyana
Nicaragua
45.4%
Mexico
44.7% 44.7%
Paraguay
Mexico
32.3%
Guatemala
40.2%
Trinidad & T.
32.3%
Suriname
39.8%
Brazil
31.5%
Chile
Guatemala
31.2%
Bolivia
27.0%
Belize El Salvador
22.6%
Suriname
17.3% 0
10
20
30
40
Trust in China 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
30.6%
Belize
26.4%
Uruguay
38.1% 37.0%
50
60
Venezuela
23.6%
Uruguay
23.4%
Argentina
22.6% 0
20
40
60
Trust in the United States 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
www. LapopSurveys.org
80
Comparative Trust Non-ALBA countries have more trust in the United States than in the other countries displayed in the chart. ALBA countries have greater trust in China than in the USA. China and the United States are the only countries that obtain an average higher than 40 points among both groups of countries.
Average Difference in Trust in US - Trust in China Haiti
24.6
El Salvador
23.9
Suriname
23.4
Dom. Rep.
21.8
Guyana
19.6
Brazil
9.8
Colombia
9.1
Panama
Trust the US more than China
8.2
Honduras
8.0
Trinidad & Tobago
6.8
Costa Rica
6.5
Belize
6.2
Guatemala
5.8
Jamaica
5.7
Mexico
5.0
Paraguay
2.7
Peru
1.7
Nicaragua
Relative levels of trust in the U.S. versus China vary across the region.
-0.9
Ecuador
-1.1
Bolivia
-2.7
Chile
-8.2
Uruguay
Trust in China more than the US
-9.6
Argentina
-15.7
Venezuela
-28.4
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
Determinants of trust in China and the U.S. (across all 24 AmericasBarometer countries) China
United States
Predictors of trust in China
Predictors of trust in the United States
Ideology
Ideology
Attention to news
Attention to news
Approval of President's Job Performance
Approval of President's Job Performance
Quintiles of Wealth
Quintiles of Wealth
Woman
Woman
Age
Age
Educational Level
Educational Level -0.20
-0.10
0.00
95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
0.10
0.20 F=36.085 N =14075
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
0.10
0.15 F=23.093 N =14075
0.20
Respondents who approve more highly of their president are more likely to trust China
Average trust in China (scale 0-100)
50
43.5 36.0
40
36.9
39.5
31.3 30
20
10
0 Very bad
Bad
Fair (neither)
Good
Very good
Approval of President's Job Performance 95% Confidence Interval Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012
www. LapopSurveys.org
Respondents who identify as being to the right of the political spectrum are more likely to trust the United States
www. LapopSurveys.org
Some predictors of trust: women have lower trust in both countries United States
China
51.9
A v er ag e tru s t in C h in a (0-1 00 s c ale )
41.6 40
34.2 30
20
10
A verag e trust in the U nited S ta tes (0-1 00 sca le )
50
47.2
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
Men 95% Confidence Interval Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012
Women
Men 95% Confidence Interval Source: © AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012
Women
China and the Latin American Public: Reflections on Public Opinion Findings Kang Liu, Ph.D. Duke University and Shanghai Jiaotong University, China
China in Latin America
Xi Jinping (2009) told overseas Chinese in Mexico: “China exports neither revolution, nor hunger and poverty, and never inflicts pains on others, how come some prickly foreigners always like to meddle in our business?”
China’s Latin American Policy: Distance, Caution, and Gradual Expansion • 1960 China’s diplomatic breakthrough with Cuba • Most Latin American countries remained diplomatic ties with Taiwan till late 1970s • China’s non-interference foreign policy guided its relation with Latin America with distance and caution • China’s ties with Central and South America are anchored in trade and driven by an insatiable hunger for natural resources. Trade between China and Latin America increased by 1,200% or from 10$ to 130$ billion dollars between 2000 and 2009. In 2007 China’s top 10 trade partners in the region were Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia, Costa Rica and Cuba.
Latin America: Reaching Out to China The world’s most populous nation is rapidly forming trade, investment, technology, security, and cultural ties with developing nations around the globe and in particular Latin America. Latin America is no longer content being the ‘backyard’ of the United States. China invests with no conditions, but still doles out rewards for nations that drop recognition of Taiwan. For now, the links between China and Latin America are lopsided in many ways, with exports and imports, commodities and aid largely flowing in one-way directions. Likewise, Latin America has a severe lack of trade or diplomatic officials who speak Chinese. The increasing ties and influence build expectations that China can step forward in promoting solutions for an onslaught of global crises.
•
Economic interaction is growing, but not the region’s knowledge about China
-----David Shambaugh, , director of the China Policy Program with George Washington University and also with the Brookings Institution. 17 November 2008
Preliminary Reflections on the Survey Data (I) •
Given the historical and geopolitical distance between China and Latin America, China's growing influence in the region is quite significant. The data shows a clear awareness of such influence with generally positive attitude.
•
More positive views of China's influence than U.S. (slides 3) may suggest China's overall performance as a modernizing country, or formally a Third World, developing country, which is significant to Latin American public concerned about their own modernization.
•
China's pragmatic and non-conflictual diplomacy (non-interference) works effectively in Latin America, compared to its role in other regions, particularly neighboring Asian-Pacific region. Moreover, China's expansion in Africa and its role in Middle East has been much more controversial than in Latin America, as it can be inferred from this public opinion survey in comparison with evidence of China's perception in other regions.
Preliminary Reflections on the Survey Data (II) • Surprisingly China only trails the U.S. as a role model for Latin American development, overtaking Japan, Brazil and its own. (slide 33). The trust rate for China is also quite impressive, an indication of strong popular sentiment for alternative models of development rather than Brazil-Mexico pro-U.S. "free market" liberal model. (Latin American “dependency theory”)
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[email protected] Follow us at:
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