Feb 28, 2017 - Credit card sales market share2 ... #1 U.S. co-brand credit card issuer14 ...... include Visa and MasterC
FIRM OVERVIEW
Marianne Lake, Chief Financial Officer
February 28, 2017
Strong fundamentals and execution JPMorgan Chase overview
1
Building exceptional client franchises
Four leading client franchises – together delivering significant value Client focus and long-term approach – consistently investing and
innovating Strong foundation – capital, liquidity, balance sheet, risk discipline
2 Operating with fortress principles
Better, faster, simpler Commitment to controls and culture
3
Maximizing long-term shareholder value
Delivering strong capital returns – while adapting capital and liquidity
frameworks Delivering significant operating leverage – while investing through-the-cycle
FIRM OVERVIEW
Leading to
~15% ROTCE
11%+ CET1 ratio
55%+/Overhead ratio
1
55-75% Net payout ratio
2016 results – strong financial performance on an absolute basis… JPMorgan Chase overview
Diversification supporting revenue, despite low rates and macro
Revenue1
$99B
volatility Net interest income of $47B and noninterest revenue of $52B
Adjusted expense2
$56.1B 57% $24.7B
Net income
1% decrease in the adjusted overhead ratio Modest legal benefit
Record net income and record EPS – record 6 out of the past 7 years
FIRM OVERVIEW
$6.19
CET15
12.2%
Capital return
$15B
ROTCE3
13%
Increased CET1 by 60bps while returning $15B of net capital to
shareholders 65% net payout ratio in 2016
Significant shareholder value added – among best in class returns
2 Note: For footnoted information, refer to slide 37
… and on a relative basis – JPM continues to be a leader JPMorgan Chase overview FY2016 Managed revenue1 ($B) JPM
$99
WFC
$90
BAC
$85
C GS MS
$71 $31 $35
2016 Net Income
FY2016 Overhead ratio1,2
$25
JPM
56%
JPM
$22
WFC
59%
WFC
$18
BAC
$15
C
$7
GS
$6
MS
FY2016 ROTCE4
10-year CAGR
FY2016 EPS YoY growth
65% 58%
4%
3%
5%
(3)%
BAC
15%
(11)% (20)%3
C (13)%
66% 74%
FY2016 Net capital distribution ($B)
GS MS
34% (2)% 1%
(8)%
FY2016 TBVPS7 YoY growth
SVA5,6
JPM
WFC BAC C
FIRM OVERVIEW
GS MS
JPM
13%
WFC
14% 10% 8% 10% 9%
$15
(– )
BAC
(– )
C
(– )
GS
(– )
MS
$13 $8
$5
C GS MS
3 Note: For footnoted information, refer to slide 38
WFC
7% 4%
BAC
$11 $7
JPM
9% 7% 7% 6%
Sustained tangible book value growth JPMorgan Chase overview Tangible book value per share (“TBVPS”)1,2 5-year average value creation 9% 7.6%
TCE
3.4%
+/-
1.3%
7% YoY growth Repurchases Dividends
Multiple Expansion / (Contraction)
$51.44
8% 3Y CAGR 9% 5Y CAGR
$48.13 $44.60
$38.68
$40.72
$33.62 $30.12 11% 10Y CAGR
$27.09 $21.96
$22.52
2007
2008
$18.88
FIRM OVERVIEW
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Cumulative net capital return ($B) 2006-2016
TBVPS and dividends are building blocks of value creation 1
4
Refer to note 3 on slide 37 has been revised to reflect the adoption of new accounting guidance for investments in affordable housing projects
2 2010-2014
2016
$57B
Our operating model is centered around our clients JPMorgan Chase overview
Operating model
Client segmentation Wholesale
Stable performance
Individuals
Deepening client relationships
Corporate Client Banking
Middle Market Banking $20-500mm revenue
$500mm-2B revenue
Optimization
against constraints
Business Banking
Share gains
CB
$2B revenue
CIB
>80% of Fortune 500 companies
Consumer
Fortress principles
AWM1
Diversified businesses
Affluent/High net worth
Institutional investors
Ultra high net worth
FIRM OVERVIEW
Scale and efficiency
Cannot be replicated – complete, global, diversified and at scale – built over decades
1
Asset & Wealth Management (formerly Asset Management or “AM”)
5
Disciplined resource allocation and granular performance measurement JPMorgan Chase overview Sub-LOB pro-forma ROE (2016 NIAC1, 2017 equity) and shareholder value add dollars2 40%
Legend Color
LOB CCB
30%
CIB CB AWM Bubble size – SVA $ Empty bubble – neg SVA
Balance sheet growth 3
20%
10%
-
(10%)
(20%)
Below ke
(30%) -
Positive SVA 5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FIRM OVERVIEW
ROE
Majority of our sub-LOBs clear their cost of equity
1 Net
6
income applicable to common equity (“NIAC”) Corporate 3 Annualized asset growth from 4Q14-4Q16 with the exception of Consumer Banking which is deposit growth 2 Excludes
30%
>30% 35%
Benefits of a diversified platform on returns and in stress JPMorgan Chase overview 2016 ROA1
2016 Return on RWA1
5-year avg. 116 bps
WFC
100 bps
JPM
137 bps
JPM
166 bps
150 bps
91 bps
WFC
163 bps
163 bps
GS
84 bps
82 bps
MS
C
82 bps
66 bps
GS
BAC
82 bps
50 bps
C
50 bps
BAC
75 bps
MS
(350 bps)
FIRM OVERVIEW
GS
139 bps
129 bps
101 bps
124 bps
73 bps
116 bps
(370 bps) (390 bps)
(18.2%)
MS
87 bps
156 bps
2016 DFAST CET1 launch to trough change3
2016 DFAST market shock as % of market risk RWA2
(17.5%)
5-year avg.
(520 bps) (610 bps)
(22.5%)
(23.0%)
(23.4%)
C
JPM
BAC
(26.3%) WFC
BAC
7
JPM
WFC
GS
C
(730 bps) MS
Peer disclosures in SEC filings and SNL Financial; Based on fully phased-in risk-weighted assets (“RWA”), where available, subject to Collins Floor FRB 2016 DFAST disclosure, Pillar 3 Report – 4Q15 market RWA 3 Source: FRB 2016 DFAST disclosure – represents launch to trough CET1 depletion from FRB-provided results; does not represent estimates of the stress capital buffer (“SCB”)
1 Source:
2 Source:
Agenda 1
Building exceptional client franchises
2
3
Operating with fortress principles
Maximizing long-term shareholder value
Capital and liquidity Operating leverage and financial simulation
FIRM OVERVIEW
Leading to
~15%
11%+
55%+/-
55-75%
ROTCE
CET1 ratio
Overhead ratio
Net payout ratio
8
1 Leading client franchises Building exceptional client franchises
Client franchises built over the long-term
1
CCB
CIB
Deposits market share # of top 50 Chase markets where we are #1 ( top 3) Average deposits growth rate Active mobile customers growth rate Credit card sales market share2 Merchant processing volume3 ($B) Global IB fees 4 Market share 4 Total Markets revenue5 Market share 5 FICC5 Market share 5 Equities 5 Market share 5 # of MSAs with Middle Market banking presence6
CB
Multifamily lending7 Gross investment banking revenue ($B) % of North America IB fees
FIRM OVERVIEW
AWM
Mutual funds with a 4/5 star rating8 Ranking of LT client asset flows 9 Active AUM market share 10 North America Private Bank (Euromoney) Client assets market share 11
2006
2015
2016
3.6% 11 (25) 8% n/m 15.9% $661
7.9% 12 (40) 9% 20% 21.1% $949
8.3% (38) 1414(38) 10% 16% 21.5% $1,063
#2 8.7% #8 6.3% #7 7.0% #8 5.0%
#1 7.9% #1 9.7% #1 10.3% #3 8.8%
#1 8.1% #1 11.4% #1 12.0% #2 10.1%
26
45
47
#28
#1
#1
$0.7
$2.2
$2.3
16%
36%
40%
119 n/a 1.8% #1 3.0%
214 #4 2.6% #1 4.4%
220 #2 2.5% #1 4.4%
9 Note: For footnoted information, refer to slide 39
Relationships with ~50% of U.S. households Industry leading deposit growth12 #1 U.S. credit card issuer13 #1 U.S. co-brand credit card issuer14 #1 rated mobile banking app15 #1 U.S. credit and debit payments volume16 #2 merchant acquirer17 >80% of Fortune 500 companies do business with us #1 in both North America & EMEA IB fees18 #1 in Global Debt, Equity & Equity-related18 #1 in Global Long-Term Debt & Loan Syndications18 #1 FICC productivity19 Top 3 Custodian globally with AUC of $20.5T20 #1 in USD clearing volumes with 19% share in 201621 Unparalleled platform capabilities – competitive advantage #1 in perceived customer satisfaction22 Top 3 in overall middle market, large middle market and
asset-based lending bookrunner23 Industry-leading credit performance – 5th straight year of net recoveries or single digit NCO rate 83% of 10-year LT mutual fund AUM in top 2 quartiles24 Positive client asset flows every year since 2004 #2 Global Private Bank & #1 LatAm Private Bank25 Revenue and LT AUM growth ~80% since 2006 Doubled WM client assets (1.6x industry rate) since 200610
1 Proven best-in-class long-term performance Building exceptional client franchises Deposits: 5-year CAGR3
EOP core loans1: 5-year CAGR2 9%
~7% excluding non-op reduction4
8% 6%
5%
Total EOP 7%
5%
8% 6%
6% 4%
4%
4%
3%
Retail
10%
5%
4%
2%
1% JPM JPM
WFC
PNC
USB
BAC
C
2016 YoY growth Total 7% Retail 11%
2016 YoY growth 15% avg.
10%
10%
2%
5%
6%
4%
Markets revenue & IB fees ($B): Cumulative 5-years6 Markets revenue
WFC
BAC
7% 7%
5% 8%
USB
11% 5%
C
PNC
2% 2%
3% 4%
5
LT net client asset flows ($B): Cumulative 5-years $628
IB fees
$131
$408 $96
FIRM OVERVIEW
JPM
2016 Share Markets 7 IB Fees 8
11% 8%
Peer 1
8% 7%
$87
Peer 2
8% 5%
$86
Peer 3
7% 6%
$246
$75
$220 $217
$172
$148
Peer 4
7% 6%
2016
10 Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. For footnoted information, refer to slide 40
BLK
JPM
$181
$52
9
10
GS
UBS
MS
BK
CS
$42
$20
$41
($14)
$34
($337) Allianz10,11 ($25)
1 Proven best-in-class long-term performance (cont’d) Building exceptional client franchises J.D. Power customer satisfaction score: 2011–20161 Chase Chase
IndustryAverage Average Industry
RegionalBanks Banks Regional
MidsizeBanks Banks Midsize
Credit card sales: 5-year CAGR2 15%
BigBanks Banks Big
10%
9% 5% 4%
3
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Digital and mobile customer growth – 2016 YoY7
4
COF
JPM
C
2016 ($B) Sales $230 4Q16 YoY6 10%
$545 14%
$251 6%
AXP $550 9%
5
DFS $121 3%
3%
BAC $226 4%
Merchant processing bankcard volumes growth8
+12%
5mm
44%
Chase
+16% +21%
4mm
+16% +7%
3mm +4%
Industry
110%
3mm
2mm
1mm
Digital
Mobile
Digital
FIRM OVERVIEW
JPM
2010 2011 2010 2011 2016 Customers (mm) Digital 44 Mobile 27
Mobile
WFC 2012 2012 27 20
Digital
Mobile
BAC
2013 2013
2014 2014 2010 Chase bankcard 2015 volumes
34 22
11 Note: For footnoted information, refer to slide 41
2010 Industry bankcard2015 volumes
Agenda 1
Building exceptional client franchises
2
3
Operating with fortress principles
Maximizing long-term shareholder value
Capital and liquidity Operating leverage and financial simulation
FIRM OVERVIEW
Leading to
~15%
11%+
55%+/-
55-75%
ROTCE
CET1 ratio
Overhead ratio
Net payout ratio
12
2 Fortress balance sheet Operating with fortress principles EOP assets ($B), except where noted Wholesale
∆
Consumer
$139
~$2.6T $2.5T
$2.35T Cash1 $361
$29
Securities $291
($2)
Secured Financing $311 Trading assets 2 $344
$15 $28
3
$57
Loans $824
Other $174
4
$11
Cash $390
YoY Avg loan growth (%) 10%
Securities $289 Secured Financing $326 Trading assets $372
Non-core
(17)%
AWM
5%
CB
14%
CIB
12% Core 15%
Loans $881
CCB
20%
Other $185
2016 2016
Goodwill $47
Goodwill $47
2015
2016
2016
FIRM OVERVIEW
EOP total deposits 5
Loans-to-deposits
$1,280
$95
2017
$1,375
~$1.5T
65%
~65%
65%
Continue to grow the balance sheet on strong loan growth funded by deposits Expect 2017 YoY average core loan growth of ~10% 13 Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. For footnoted information, refer to slide 42
2 Credit – net charge-offs Operating with fortress principles NCO rates at cyclical lows ($B)
Commentary
2016 Investor Day 1 NCOs +/-
Actual NCOs
Medium-term guidance NCOs +/-
2017 NCOs
Mortgage Banking 2
0.15%
0.10%
Card
2.50%
2.63%
Auto
0.45%
0.45%
0.50%
Business Banking
0.70%
0.61%
0.60%
CIB
Total CIB
0.15%
0.15%
< 0.10%
CB
Total CB
0.15%
0.09%
0.15%
< 0.10%
0.01%
< 0.10%
≤ $4.75
$4.7
0.10% < 3.00%
3-3.25%
CCB
Expect 2017 and medium-term NCO
rates to remain relatively flat across businesses with the exception of Card and CIB Card – seasoning of newer origination
vintages will drive loss rates modestly higher, but at higher risk adjusted margins CIB – down due to absence of energy
related charge-offs 2017 Firmwide NCOs of $5B +/- driven by AWM
Total AWM
Firmwide
loan growth
$5 +/-
Historical and expected Card NCO rates and average loans by acquisition vintage Accounts acquired pre-2015
4.00%
Accounts acquired 2015 onwards3
Total weighted average
3.00%
FIRM OVERVIEW
2.00%
1.00% 2016
2017
2018
2019
~30%
~40%
~45%
% of average loans for 2015 onwards vintages
~15%
14 1 Disclosed
at 2016 Investor Day 2 Excludes the impact of purchased credit-impaired (“PCI”) loans. Refer to note 4 on slide 37 3 A portion of these vintages are still maturing
2 Credit – reserves Operating with fortress principles
2016 Credit reserves ($B)
Firmwide $14.9
Consumer $9.3
A
Consumer ex-PCI $6.9
Wholesale $5.6
PCI1 $2.3
Wholesale ex-energy2 $4.1
Commentary
Energy2 $1.5
2017 Outlook
A PCI1
Consumer Expect reserve build of ~$300mm – growth across
Potential for further modest reserve release
businesses offset by mortgage release
B Energy2
Wholesale
Stable with no broad based deterioration expected
Expect modest reserve build across wholesale ex-energy2
Expect modest NCO (name specific) FIRM OVERVIEW
B
Potential reserve releases in 2H17-2019
Credit fundamentals remain strong across businesses and medium-term outlook remains relatively benign 15 Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding 1 Purchased credit-impaired 2 Energy includes Oil & Gas, Natural Gas Pipelines, and Metals & Mining
2 Credit – Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) and Auto Operating with fortress principles CRE credit exposure1 growth ($B) Multifamily
CAGR Multifamily 16% Other 13%
Commentary Multifamily $80B
Other
98% secured; 82% IG3
$1402 15% CAGR
Largest and fastest growing part of the portfolio
$121
Predominantly to class B/C properties in supply-constrained
$108
markets 61% concentration in California Other CRE $59B 63% secured; 67% IG3 Office (~30%), retail (~20%), lodging and industrial (~15%) Unsecured exposure – primarily structured with availability restrictions based on advance rates against unencumbered assets Reduced exposure to sectors and markets that contributed significantly to charge-offs during the last cycle
$59
$88 $70
79% drawn
$49
$78
$48
83% secured
$37
$32
$34
76% IG3
$37
$44
$52
2011
2012
2013
$60
2014
$72
$80
2015
2016
Auto portfolio average loan balances4 ($B) CAGR Retail Auto DCS
Retail Auto
Commentary Business focus on profit over growth
Dealer Commercial Services (DCS)
Leases – only offered for our manufacturing partners
4% 16%
6% CAGR
Risk sharing arrangements with partners – conservatively
$63.6
$48.4
$50.7
$53.0
$47.0 $6.0
$7.7
$8.8
$9.3
$56.5
reserved 30+ Delinquency rates – well below the industry
$12.5 $10.1
4Q16: Chase – 1.49%5 vs. Industry – 3.50%
FIRM OVERVIEW
High quality loan originations6 with limited layered risk7 $41.1
$40.7
$41.9
$43.7
$46.3
$51.1
Average term: Chase – 65 months vs. Industry – 68 months Average FICO: Chase – 754 vs. Industry – 719 Average LTV: Chase – 94% vs. Industry – 103%
2011 2012 Average Leases ($B) $4.1 $4.5
2013
2014
2015
2016
$5.1
$6.1
$7.8
$11.0
CAGR
Layered risk: Chase – 1% vs. Industry – 5%
22% 16
Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. For footnoted information, refer to slide 43
Negative equity: Chase – 18% vs. Industry – 33%
Agenda 1
Building exceptional client franchises
2
3
Operating with fortress principles
Maximizing long-term shareholder value
Capital and liquidity Operating leverage and financial simulation
FIRM OVERVIEW
Leading to
~15%
11%+
55%+/-
55-75%
ROTCE
CET1 ratio
Overhead ratio
Net payout ratio
17
3 Continue to operate from a position of strength Maximizing long-term shareholder value 2015 10.2% CET11,2
11.6%
+60bps
12.2%
Firm SLR2
6.5%
6.5%
Total assets
$2.4T
$2.5T
RWA1,2 Std. / Adv.
$1.5T
$1.5T
GSIB3
3.5%
3.5%
TLAC
$20B +/-
Ext.4
FIRM OVERVIEW
2016
LTD shortfall
100%
>100%
Net payout
48%
+17%
65%
Dividends per share
$1.72
+9%
$1.88
18 Note: For footnoted information, refer to slide 44
3 Capital allocation Maximizing long-term shareholder value – capital Capital allocation ($B)
2016
2017
Medium-term ROTCE target (+/-)
$51.0
$51.0
20%
Corporate & Investment Bank
64.0
70.0
14%
Commercial Banking
16.0
20.0
15%
9.0
9.0
25%
$140.0
$150.0
40.0
35.0
~ $180.0
~ $185.0
42.0
47.0
Average retained equity1
Consumer & Community Banking
Asset & Wealth Management Total LOBs Corporate2 Total Firm3 Corporate goodwill 4
15%
Allocation methodology5
Overview Moved to multi-variable framework reflecting size and stress-related constraints
2016
2017+
Advanced RWA
Leverage Stress GSIB Standardized RWA
Consistent with existing optimization process
FIRM OVERVIEW
All businesses held to 11% target against new framework
Advanced RWA
Capital allocations and methodology enhanced to further reflect multiple constraints of the Firm Note: For footnoted information, refer to slide 45
19
3 Capital management framework Maximizing long-term shareholder value – capital Approach to capital management
11%
Management buffer
11%+ CET1