FPMA Bulletin #11, 9 December 2016 - Food and Agriculture ...

#11

bulletin

9 December 2016

mo n t h ly r e p o rt on food p r ic e t r e nds

Contents

Key messages ↗↗ International wheat prices showed mixed trends in November but remained below their year-earlier levels on account of ample global supplies. Those of maize were relatively stable with the downward pressure from expectations of bumper crops offset by strong import demand. New crop arrivals and sluggish demand kept quotations of rice generally under pressure. ↗↗ In East Africa, cereal prices increased in most countries and were at levels well above those a year earlier due to localized production shortfalls and uncertain prospects for current crops in some areas. In South Sudan, the further sharp depreciation of the local currency underpinned staple food prices, which increased in November after some declines in the past months. ↗↗ In West Africa, adequate supplies from the good 2016 harvests and carryover stocks from last year’s production led to further price declines in most countries of the subregion. In Nigeria, however, the weak local currency and persisting civil insecurity limited the decline and kept prices at record or near-record highs.

Domestic price warnings

Price warning level:

international cereal prices.............................. 2 Domestic Price Warnings................................... 3 west africa............................................................ 6 southern africa................................................... 7 east africa............................................................. 9 east asia............................................................... 11 cis - asia and europe.......................................... 14 central america and the caribbean.............. 16 south america.................................................... 17

NEWS We are pleased to announce the launch of a new enhanced version of the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool. It facilitates monitoring and analysis of the global food price data provided by GIEWS and can be installed at country level. Try the new Tool now at: fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool

High

Moderate [Based on GIEWS analysis]

Argentina | Maize Bolivia | Maize Ecuador | Maize Malawi | Maize Nigeria | Cereals South Sudan | Staple foods Swaziland | Maize Uganda | Maize Warnings are only included if latest available price data is not older than two months. The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis

Zambia | Maize

INTERNATIONAL CEREAL PRICES Wheat prices showed mixed trends but remained low, those of maize were generally stable Wheat export prices showed mixed trends in November but remained below their year-earlier levels. The benchmark US wheat (No.2 Hard Red Winter, f.o.b.) price averaged USD 191 per tonne, slightly down from October and nearly 10 percent below the corresponding month last year. A further upward revision of 2016 global production and end-season inventory estimates weighed on prices. Quotations were also pressured by a stronger US dollar. However, the decline was limited by concerns about tight availabilities of high quality wheat, strong import demand and unfavourable weather for 2017 crops in some producing countries. In Argentina, where the harvest is ongoing, wheat prices continued to decline significantly in November. By contrast, quotations increased in the Black Sea region, underpinned by sustained import demand and concerns regarding grain quality. International maize prices remained relatively stable in November. The benchmark US maize (No.2, Yellow, f.o.b.) averaged USD 152 per tonne, virtually unchanged from October but about 8 percent below the corresponding month last year. Harvest pressure and the upward revision of the 2016 maize production forecast to a record high in the

United States of America, the world’s largest exporter, weighed on prices. However, the downward pressure was offset by strong export sales despite a stronger US dollar. Sustained import demand also provided some support to prices in the Black Sea region, while quotations declined in Brazil, mainly reflecting the early positive outlook for the 2017 first season crop. The FAO All Rice Price index (2002-04=100) averaged 185 points in November 2016, down slightly from October mainly as a result of a decline in Aromatic quotations. In Thailand, the benchmark Thai 100%B white rice averaged USD 369 per tonne, nearly 2 percent lower than in October. A slow pace of sales and new crop arrivals continued to exert downward pressure on prices, despite the support provided by the Government’s on-farm mortgaging scheme, as well as from sales to private buyers in the Philippines. Similarly, in India, harvest pressure was behind the decline of non-fragrant rice prices. By contrast, quotations increased in Pakistan, reflecting an upturn in export sales, and in Viet Nam due to rain-related harvest delays. In South America, subdued import demand led to further price declines.

International wheat prices Latest Price (Nov-16)

USD per tonne 310

Percent Change 1M 3M 1Y

US (Gulf), Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter)

190.60

-1.1

1.3

-9.7

250

EU (France), Wheat (grade 1)

187.00

1.4

-0.4

-2

230

Black Sea, Wheat (milling)

182.20

4.3

6.4

-8

210

Argentina, Wheat (Argentina, Trigo Pan, Up River, f.o.b.)

176.40

-4.1

-18

-16

290 270

190 170 150 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): International Grains Council

International maize prices Latest Price (Nov-16)

USD per tonne 210 200 190 180 170 160

US (Gulf), Maize (US No. 2, Yellow)

152.08

Black Sea, Maize (feed) Brazil (Paranagua), Maize (feed)

Argentina, Maize (Argentina, Up River, f.o.b.)

Percent Change 1M 3M 1Y 0.1

1.3

-8.4

169.00

1.2

-14.7

0.1

180.80

-4.5

-4.9

7.5

177.60

1.9

0.2

6.5

150 140 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): USDA; International Grains Council

International rice prices Latest Price (Nov-16)

USD per tonne 600 550 500 450 400 350

Thailand (Bangkok), Rice (Thai 100% B)

369.00

Viet Nam, Rice (25% broken) India, Rice (25% broken) US, Rice (US Long Grain 2.4%)

Percent Change 1M 3M 1Y -1.5

-15.1

-2.8

324.00

2.3

-1.1

-6.1

325.00

-0.9

-3.6

4.7

401.25

-0.2

-10.3

-19.8

300 250 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Thai Rice Exporters Association; FAO rice price update

2


9 December 2016

DOMESTIC PRICE WARNINGS Countries where prices of one or more basic food commodity are at abnormal high levels which could negatively impact access to food

Argentina | Maize Yellow maize prices rose further and at high levels

Growth Rate (%) to 11/16

Same period average

3 months

0.3

2.5

12 months

2.9

0.4

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Argentina, Rosario, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

Prices of yellow maize increased for the second consecutive month in November, returning close to their record levels in July and double their values a year earlier. Seasonal trends were exacerbated by strong exports sustained by the weak local currency, which depreciated further in November. Exports in the current marketing year (March/February) are forecast at a record level of 24 million tonnes, following the removal of export restrictions and ample availabilities from this year’s record maize crop. Planting of the 2017 crop is well advanced and although planting operations were hindered by unfavourable weather, the area is expected to increase to a record level reflecting the prevailing local high prices and robust import demand. As for wheat grain and wheat flour, strong import demand offset the downward pressure from the ongoing 2016 wheat harvest, expected at a bumper level of 14.9 million tonnes, and prices remained nearly 50 percent and 70 percent above their year-earlier values, respectively. The weak local currency also provided support to maintain these high price levels.

Bolivia | Maize Maize prices remain high despite recent declines


Same period average

3 months

-6.2

-2.3

12 months

4.8

-0.6

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Bolivia, La Paz, Wholesale, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)

Yellow maize prices weakened further in November with the 2016 secondary season harvest and imports, but remained well above their levels in the corresponding month last year reflecting relatively tighter supplies due to the drought-reduced 2016 aggregate crop. On 21 November, the Government declared a national state of emergency with 162 000 families, 607 000 hectares of crop land and some 600 000 head of cattle affected by drought. Uncertain prospects for plantings of the 2017 maize summer crop, due to lingering dry weather in main producing areas, also supported prices. The Government is assisting farmers by providing inputs, including seeds and fertilizers, as well as improving irrigation infrastructure such as wells. Wheat flour prices generally declined in November as imports supplied local markets. However, in the main producing region of Santa Cruz, prices remained above year-earlier levels sustained by tight supplies due to the reduced 2016 crop. Similarly, a reduced output kept prices of staple potatoes at high levels in November.

Ecuador | Maize Prices of yellow maize on the increase and well above year-earlier values


Same period average

3 months

3.1

0.7

12 months

1.3

-0.2

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Ecuador, Quito, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)


High

Prices of yellow maize increased significantly in November, with seasonal trends exacerbated by tight supplies from the reduced output this year, due to lower plantings and reduced yields affected by fungal and viral infections. Prices were up to nearly 20 percent above their levels a year earlier. Concerns over next year’s crop due to ongoing dry weather ahead of the planting period of the main 2017 season in key coastal growing areas put further upward pressure on prices. However, continued Government support in the form of inputs, coupled with high domestic prices, are expected to lift plantings from last year’s reduced levels. By contrast, prices of staple rice have declined in the past few months and in November they were down from a year earlier as a result of adequate domestic availabilities.

Moderate For more information visit the FPMA website here

9 December 2016


3

Domestic Price Warnings

contd.

Malawi | Maize Maize prices declined but tight supplies sustain high year-on-year levels


Same period average

3 months

-2.8

1.4

12 months

1.8

0.7

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Malawi, National Average, Retail, Maize

The national average maize price declined in October reflecting the impact of food assistance programmes and increased imports; the Government targeted the procurement of 100 000 tonnes from Zambia, to be sold through the Government’s Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) at a subsidized price. However, prices remained nearly 50 percent above their year-earlier values, largely as a result of the tight domestic supply situation following the drought‑reduced 2016 maize output and low carryover stocks. The southern areas of the country were the most affected by the drought conditions and this is reflected in the relatively higher maize grain prices. The weak local currency and increases in fuel prices (FPMA Food Policies) also added inflationary pressure. Planting of the 2017 crop is underway with weather forecasts pointing to an enhanced chance of above-average rainfall conditions.

Nigeria | Cereals Cereal prices at record or near-record highs


Same period average

3 months

9.0

0.7

12 months

9.6

-0.9

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Nigeria, Kano, Wholesale, Sorghum (white)

Cereal prices declined or remained relatively stable in October on account of new supplies from the 2016 harvest. By contrast, prices of imported rice continued to increase. Despite the generally favourable 2016 crop prospects, a weak currency and civil insecurity continued to disrupt market activities and underpin prices, which remained at record or near-record highs in October. The depreciation of the local currency continued to affect trade flows, supporting regional import demand for Nigerian cereals, which has resulted in increased exports to neighbouring countries and consequently exerted significant pressure on domestic food supplies. Moreover, the currency weakness has increased fuel and input costs, and led to reduced imports from neighbouring countries. In the northern part of the country, the continued conflict has resulted in widespread disruption of agricultural and marketing activities, leading to high price levels.

South Sudan | Staple foods Food prices increasing in November and at exceptionally high levels


Same period average

3 months

-17.3

-1.7

12 months

-9.5

3.4

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: South Sudan, Juba, Retail, Maize (white)


High

Prices of food staples increased in November, after the declines of the previous three months, mainly due to a further sharp depreciation of the local currency. Expectations of a below-average cereal output contributed to the renewed upward pressure. In the capital, Juba, prices of sorghum and maize increased in November by 20 and 12 percent, respectively. Those of other staples followed similar patterns, with cassava and wheat flour increasing by 24 and 38 percent, respectively. Food prices in November were about three times higher than their year-earlier levels, in nominal terms, on account of insecurity disrupting market activity and trade flows, tight supplies, currency weakness, fuel shortages and high transport costs.


4


9 December 2016

Domestic Price Warnings

contd.

Swaziland | Maize Maize prices decrease moderately but still well above year-earlier levels


Same period average

3 months

-2.3

-0.7

12 months

2.1

-0.2

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Swaziland, National average, Retail, Maize meal

Prices of maize meal decreased in some markets in October reflecting earlier price declines in South Africa, the country’s main source of imports. Forecasts pointing to higher likelihood of normal to above-average rainfall conditions for the 2016/17 cropping season, with cereal crops currently being planted, contributed to the downward pressure. Prices, however, remained well above their year-earlier levels on account of the overall higher import costs compared to the previous year. The impact of the El Niño-related drought, which caused a sharp 60 percent reduction in the 2016 maize harvest, further sustained higher year-on-year price levels. In an effort to ease market prices and alleviate the tight supply situation, in September the Government removed the import ban which was introduced earlier on South African maize meal products (FPMA Food Policies).

Uganda | Maize Prices of maize surging in November and at record highs


Same period average

3 months

12.6

4.2

12 months

2.0

0.3

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Uganda, Kampala, Wholesale, Maize

Prices of maize rose sharply in November with normal seasonal patterns exacerbated by localized shortfalls in production of the first season crop, harvested in June/July, and by concerns over the performance of the second season harvest, to be gathered from December, as severe dry weather conditions in October and November affected planting and early crop development in eastern and southwestern growing areas. Sustained import demand from the neighbouring countries provided further support. In the capital, Kampala, and in Lira market, located in a northern key-producing area, wholesale prices of maize increased in November by some 20 percent, while in Busia market, an important cross‑border trade hub with Kenya, they rose by 12 percent. Following the recent sharp increases, maize prices in November were at record to near-record levels in the above‑mentioned markets.

Zambia | Maize Maize prices increased in October and were 30 percent higher year‑on‑year


Same period average

3 months

3.3

0.3

12 months

1.0

0.0

Compound growth rate in real terms. Refers to: Zambia, National Average, Retail, White roller maize meal


High

Prices of maize grain and maize meal increased in October and were up by approximately one-quarter compared to a year earlier, with those of meal products at record highs. Despite a small production increase in 2016, maize supplies are tighter this year following large export volumes and the reduced crop of the previous year that resulted in lower carryover stocks. A sharp increase in retail fuel prices in mid-October also contributed to underpin price gains (FPMA Food Policies). The increase in maize grain and maize meal prices in October were the main drivers of the 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent rise in the monthly food and general inflation rate, respectively, the highest rates in the past several months. As a measure to ensure sufficient domestic supplies and ease prices, in mid-October, the Government revoked all maize export permits except for humanitarian purposes (FPMA Food Policies), as was the case for 160 000 tonnes of maize that were exported to Malawi and Zimbabwe.


9 December 2016


5

west africa Coarse grain prices declined or remained stable in most countries of the subregion In most countries of the Sahel belt, the 2016 coarse grain harvests were ongoing in November and bumper outputs are expected. In Burkina Faso, prices generally declined, particularly those of sorghum as a result of improved supplies from the new harvest. In Niger, prices of millet and maize decreased significantly in several markets, while those of sorghum recorded some increases in the areas where the harvest is not yet in full swing and on account of strong domestic demand. In Mali, prices of millet and sorghum remained generally stable in November with the bulk of the new harvest yet to come, but were generally down from a year earlier. In Chad, coarse grain prices generally declined in October and were well below their year-earlier levels due to favourable prospects for the 2016 crops and adequate imports from neighbouring countries. The steep depreciation of the local currency in neighbouring Nigeria also supported increased cereal imports to the

country. In coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, increased supplies from the 2016 harvests put downward pressure on coarse grain prices in most countries over the past few months. In Togo, where a good 2016 first season output was gathered, maize prices declined significantly in October in most markets, most notably in Lomé, where prices dropped by about 17 percent compared to the previous month. Maize prices in these markets remained well below their year-earlier levels. In northern Nigeria’s largest city, Kano, prices of maize and millet declined for the second consecutive month in October reflecting improved supplies from the new above-average 2016 harvest. However, the steep depreciation of the local currency and insecurity in some areas limited the decline and kept food prices well above their year-earlier levels, particularly those of sorghum. Higher fuel costs as well as increased subregional demand provided further support.

Wholesale prices of sorghum in West Africa Latest Price (Nov-16)

CFA Franc BCEAO per kg 220


Niger, Niamey

200.00

0

8.1

200

Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou

150.00

-6.2

0

7.1

180

Mali, Bamako

140.00

0

-12.5

-6.7

33.3

160 140 120 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Afrique verte

Retail prices of maize in Togo Latest Price (Oct-16)

CFA Franc BCEAO per kg 300


Lomé

167.00

-16.5

-23

-23

250

Cinkassé

116.00

-5.7

-32.2

-33.3

200

Kara

143.00

-15.9

-20.1

-16.4

Korbongou

123.00

-10.9

-15.2

-27.2

150 100 50 Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Source(s): Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Elevage et de la Pêche

Wholesale prices of cereals in Kano, Nigeria Latest Price (Oct-16)

Naira per tonne 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000


Millet

118000.

-3.7

8.5 172.5

Maize (white)

127500.

-3.8

14.1 136.5

Sorghum (white)

155000.

3.3

33 253.9

Rice (milled, local)

296249.

2.2

16.6 126.1

100000 50000 0 Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Source(s): FEWSNET

For more information visit the FPMA website here

6


9 December 2016

southern africa Maize prices followed mixed trends but were high in several countries In South Africa, after a five-month decline, prices of white maize increased in November and were 17 percent higher year-on-year, although still well below the record high earlier this year in February. Limited imports and currency fluctuations during the month supported prices. However, preliminary estimates pointing to a significant rebound in plantings for the 2017 season limited further price gains. In Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, which heavily depend on maize imports to meet their consumption needs, maize meal prices remained generally stable or declined in October mirroring the previous months’ price declines in key exporter, South Africa. However, prices in these countries remained well above a year earlier, after the sustained increases in the first half of 2016, due to drought-reduced harvests and higher importing costs from South Africa. In Mozambique, food prices, including maize and rice continued to increase across the country in October on account of reduced supplies, particularly in southern provinces and the impact of the depreciation of the local currency. In Zimbabwe, maize meal prices strengthened for the second consecutive

month in October, but were still down on a yearly basis. The lower year-on-year level is mostly the result of the stronger US dollar (the main currency used in the country) that lessened the cost of import, liquidity constraints that have negatively impacted on consumers’ purchasing power and significant import volumes. It is estimated that over 400 000 tonnes have been imported in 2016. In Malawi, maize prices declined in October, reflecting the impact of increased imports and food assistance programmes. However, the national average price still remained nearly 50 percent above its year-earlier level mostly reflecting the drought-reduced domestic harvest in 2016 coupled with a weak currency. In Zambia, prices of maize grain and maize meal increased in October and were up by approximately one-quarter on a yearly basis. Despite a small production increase in 2016, maize supplies are tighter this year following large export volumes and a reduced crop in the previous year that resulted in lower carryover stocks. A rise of fuel prices in mid-October, that reflects the weakening currency, also underpinned price gains.

Wholesale prices of maize in Randfontein, South Africa Latest Price (Nov-16)

Rand per tonne 5200 4700 4200


Maize (white)

3789.83

6.9

-8.4

17.5

Maize (yellow)

3199.90

1

2.5

2.4

3700 3200 2700 2200 1700 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): SAFEX Agricultural Products Division

Retail prices of maize meal in Namibia Latest Price (Oct-16)

Namibia Dollar per Kg 18


Windhoek

14.90

2

-8

3.2

Otjiwarongo

14

13.91

3.4

10.7

44.6

Gobabis

11.00

0

-1.8

-3.5

12

Katima

11.00

0

-1.8

14.3

16

10 8 6 Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Source(s): Namibia Statistics Agency


9 December 2016


7

southern africa

contd.

Retail prices of maize meal in Swaziland Latest Price (Oct-16)

Lilangeni per kg 14 13 12 11 10


National average

11.27

-4.6

-4.6

43.2

Hhohho

11.60

0

0

38.1

Shiselweni

11.60

0

0

38.1

Lubombo

11.20

-16.4

-16.4

43.7

9 8 7 Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Source(s): Central Statistical Office (CSO)

Retail prices of maize meal in Zimbabwe Latest Price (Oct-16)

US Dollar per 20 kg 19 17 15 13 11


Harare

7.45

2.1

1.5

-31.2

Manicaland

6.04

4.3

-6.5

-52.1

Midlands

6.03

0.2

0.3

-51.8

Mash west

5.78

3.6

-0.7

-45.8

9 7 5 Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Source(s): ZIMSTAT

Retail prices of maize in Malawi Latest Price (Oct-16)

Kwacha per kg 260

National Average, Maize

218.61


-1.1

48.2

210 160 110 60 Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Source(s): Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security

Retail prices of maize in Zambia Latest Price (Oct-16)

Kwacha per kg 4 3.5 3 2.5 2


National Average, Maize (white)

2.36

5.3

16.1

29.7

National Average, Breakfast maize meal

3.57

4.6

7.1

24

National Average, White roller maize meal

2.85

7.6

11.3

26.2

1.5 1 Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Source(s): Central Statistical Office


8


9 December 2016

east africa Cereal prices increasing and at high levels Cereal prices increased in November in several countries of the subregion, and they were higher than a year earlier in most markets, underpinned by localized production shortfalls earlier in the year and by uncertain prospects for the current crops in some areas due to poor rains. In Uganda, maize prices continued to increase sharply in November, surging by more than 20 percent in the capital, Kampala, and reaching record to near-record levels in all monitored markets. Seasonal patterns were compounded by the upward pressure from localized shortfalls in production of the first season crops, harvested in June/July, and by concerns over the performance of the second season harvest, to be gathered from December, due to insufficient precipitation in some areas. Sustained import demand from neighbouring countries provided further support. In the United Republic of Tanzania, prices of maize also continued to seasonally increase in November in all monitored markets. In Arusha, located in a bi-modal rainfall producing area, prices surged by 27 percent and were well above their year-earlier levels, as seasonal patterns were compounded by a reduced masika season crop harvested in August and by unfavourable prospects for the vuli harvest, to be gathered early next year. In Somalia, prices of locally-produced maize and sorghum rose significantly in November with seasonal trends

exacerbated by a reduced main gu season output and unfavourable prospects for the deyr harvest to be gathered in early 2017. Prices were well above their year earlier levels. In Kenya, maize prices remained overall relatively stable in November despite the ongoing long-rains main season harvest, reflecting expectations of a reduced 2016 output mainly due to unfavourable prospects for the short-rains harvest to be gathered in early 2017 in eastern and coastal lowlands. Prices were above their levels in November last year in most markets. In South Sudan, prices of coarse grains in the capital, Juba, reversed the declining trend of recent months in November, surging by up to 20 percent, mainly due to a further sharp depreciation of the local currency. Prices were three times higher than in November last year due to insecurity disrupting trade flows, tight supplies, currency weakness, fuel shortages and high transport costs. In the Sudan, prices of domestically-produced sorghum and millet, the main staples, continued to decline in November as newly-harvested crops from the 2016 harvest increased supplies. Similarly, in Ethiopia, maize prices continued to decrease in November with the recent start of the 2016 meher main season harvest. Prices, however, remained well above their levels a year earlier due to a reduced 2016 belg secondary harvest, completed in August, and the previous below‑average meher harvest.

Wholesale prices of maize in Uganda Latest Price (Nov-16)

Uganda Shilling per kg 1150 950


Kampala

1180.97

21.7

45.7

31.7

Busia

1083.37

12.2

29.4

32.3

Lira

1036.96

18.7

29.9

21.7

750 550 350 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network

Wholesale prices of maize in the United Republic of Tanzania Latest Price (Nov-16)

Tanzanian Shilling per kg 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16


Dar es Salaam

791.43

5.5

5.6

6.4

Iringa

599.62

15.5

14.1

-22.6

Arusha

690.81

26.9

39.7

22.5

Nov-16

Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network


9 December 2016


9

east africa

contd.

Retail prices of maize and sorghum in Somalia Latest Price (Nov-16)

Somali Shilling per kg 12000


Baidoa, Sorghum (red)

8225.00

48.9

41.8

41.8

10000

Mogadishu, Sorghum (red)

7725.00

17

27.1

28.8

8000

Mogadishu, Maize (white)

7650.00

20.7

-4.4

-11

6000 4000 2000 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15 Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16 Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Food Security Analysis Unit

Retail prices of maize and sorghum in South Sudan Latest Price (Nov-16)

South Sudanese Pound per 3.5 kg 250 200


Juba, Maize (white)

165.00

20.4

-13.2

200

Juba, Sorghum (Feterita)

169.00

11.9

-17.6

225

150 100 50 0 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Crop & Livestock Market Information System (CLIMIS)

Wholesale prices of millet and sorghum in the Sudan Latest Price (Nov-16)

Sudanese Pound per tonne 8000


Khartoum, Millet

4675.00

-19.8

-6.6

7.6

Khartoum, Sorghum (Feterita)

6000

2970.00

-3.1

-16.6

-2.7

Al-Fashir, Millet

5637.50

0

-7

-9

5000

El Gedarif, Sorghum (Feterita)

2736.25

-3.6

-16

-2.1

7000

4000 3000 2000 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Food Security information for Action (SIFSIA)

Wholesale prices of maize in Ethiopia Latest Price (Nov-16)

Ethiopian Birr per tonne 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000


Diredawa

5725.00

-11.9

6

21.8

Addis Ababa

5250.00

-7

-6.4

15.4

Mekele

5000.00

-9.1

-14.8

2

Bahirdar

5100.00

-7.3

-7.3

13.3

4500 4000 3500 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise


10


9 December 2016

east asia Domestic rice prices showed mixed trends, while those of wheat generally stable Domestic rice prices showed mixed trends in November across the subregion. In Thailand, new supplies from the 2016 main season crop, anticipated at a good level, together with ample domestic availabilities and subdued import demand continued to weigh on prices which declined for the fourth consecutive month in November. Prices declined despite support from the Government’s on-farm mortgaging programme and sales to private buyers in the Philippines. Domestic rice prices continued to decline also in exporter Myanmar, on account of improved supplies from the ongoing bumper 2016 main season harvest and weak import demand from the country’s main buyer, China. Prices in November were some 20 percent below their year-earlier levels. In India, rice prices were stable or decreased slightly reflecting improved supplies from the 2016 main season crop, currently harvested, and the overall slow pace of sales. By contrast, in Viet Nam, winter crop harvesting delays due to heavy rains, underpinned prices in November which, however, remained below their year-earlier values. In Cambodia, rice prices increased in October due to seasonal tightness. In Sri Lanka, prices rose further in November with seasonal trends exacerbated by the reduced 2016 secondary yala crop and decreased imports. In the Philippines, Indonesia and China, rice prices were generally stable and close to their year-earlier levels reflecting good

domestic availabilities. In Bangladesh, rice prices eased somewhat ahead of the arrival of the 2016 aman crop into the market. Quotations, however, remained above their year-earlier levels mainly due to reduced imports, with Government procurement purchases earlier in the year also providing some support. As for wheat and wheat flour, prices were generally stable or increased. Among main producers, quotations remained stable in China, reflecting adequate market availabilities, while they increased in most markets in India, supported by decreasing stock levels. Against this backdrop, the Government of India is planning to release increased wheat quantities through the Open Market Scheme and removed the import duty on wheat in early December (FPMA Food Policies). In Pakistan, prices firmed in November and were around their year-earlier levels reflecting good production and large carryover stocks. Wheat quotations were relatively stable also in importers Indonesia and Sri Lanka, due to adequate market availabilities, and in Bangladesh, where they remained well below their year-earlier levels reflecting large imports and continued Open Market Sales by the Government. In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices strengthened in November but remained generally down from a year earlier reflecting improved supplies after an average wheat harvest in 2016 and adequate imports.

Wholesale prices of rice in Bangkok, Thailand Latest Price (Nov-16)

Baht per kg 15 14


Rice (25% broken)

10.89

-3.1

-10.9

-4.4

Rice (5% broken)

11.24

-2.8

-14.2

-5.4

13 12 11 10 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce

Wholesale prices of rice in Yangon, Myanmar Latest Price (Nov-16)

Kyat per kg 550

Rice (Emata, EHYV-FQ)

500

346.31


-21

-17

450 400 350 300 250 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): E-Trade Myanmar


9 December 2016


11

east asia

contd.

Wholesale prices of rice in Viet Nam Latest Price (Nov-16)

Dong per kg 8500


An Giang, Rice (25% broken)

6800.00

4.9

0.9

-9

8000

An Giang, Rice (20% broken)

6700.00

3.7

-0.6

-13.8

7500

Dong Thap, Rice (20% broken)

7125.00

2.7

-1.7

-6.9

Dong Thap, Rice (25% broken)

7037.50

2.9

-1.6

-6.2

7000 6500 6000 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Agroinfo

Wholesale prices of rice in Cambodia Latest Price (Oct-16)

Riel per kg 2000


Phnom Penh

1600.00

-3

-5.9

0

1800

Kampong Chhnang

1800.00

5.1

-2.7

-4

1600

Banteay Meanchey

1400.00

0

-9.7

-12.5

Battambang

1400.00

3.7

-3.4

-6.7

1400 1200 1000 Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Source(s): Cambodia Agricultural Market Information System

Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Colombo, Sri Lanka Latest Price (Nov-16)

Sri Lanka Rupee per kg 110 100


Rice (white)

78.19

5.6

12.2

17.6

Wheat (flour)

88.76

0.2

0.5

2.5

90 80 70 60 50 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Department of Census and Statistics

Retail prices of rice in the Philippines Latest Price (Nov-16)

Philippine Peso per kg 45 43 41


National Average, Rice (regular milled)

37.13

-0.4

-0.6

0.8

National Average, Rice (well milled)

41.38

-0.4

-1.2

0.6

39 37 35 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Bureau of Agricultural Statistics


12


9 December 2016

east asia

contd.

Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Dhaka, Bangladesh Latest Price (Nov-16)

Taka per kg 42


Wheat (flour)

24.71

1.5

0.7

-10.7

Rice (Medium)

40.11

-1

9.5

12.3

37 32 27 22 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Department of Agriculture Marketing (DAM), Bangladesh

Wholesale prices of wheat in India Latest Price (Nov-16)

Indian Rupee per tonne 28000


Patna

19384.6

6.6

15

19

24000

Chennai

25500.0

9.2

2

3.5

22000

Mumbai

24681.8

2.8

2.8

3.8

20000

New Delhi

21750.0

14.9

20.5

28

26000

18000 16000 14000 12000 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15 Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16 Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Ministry of Consumer Affairs

Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Indonesia Latest Price (Nov-16)

Rupiah per kg 11000 10500 10000


National Average, Rice (medium quality)

10680.0

0.2

1

1.5

National Average, Wheat (flour)

8916.82

-0.4

-0.9

-0.7

9500 9000 8500 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15 Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16 Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Ministry of Trade

Retail prices of wheat flour in Pakistan Latest Price (Nov-16)

Pakistan Rupee per kg 46


Karachi

44.27

1.2

4.9

1.3

Lahore

42

38.00

0

0.1

-2.6

Peshawar

38.25

2.1

3.4

-1.5

40

Multan

37.75

1

4.4

-3.2

44

38 36 34 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Pakistan Bureau of Statistics


9 December 2016


13

cis - asia and europe Wheat prices increased in exporters, mostly stable elsewhere In the main exporters of the subregion, despite 2016 record crops, shortage of high quality wheat and strong import demand supported export and domestic prices of milling wheat in November. Export prices of wheat in Ukraine and the Russian Federation rose by some 4 percent, while in Kazakhstan they increased slightly after the sustained decline of the previous two months with the main harvest on account of renewed import demand and the increase in prices in neighbouring exporters. In importer Tajikistan, prices of wheat flour were relatively unchanged in November despite the 2016 bumper crop and overall slightly down from a year earlier. The weak local currency, which depreciated persistently in 2015 and remained stable since February, continued to exert upward pressure on the cost of imports despite relatively low fuel prices. Similarly, in Kyrgyzstan, prices of wheat flour remained virtually unchanged or eased somewhat in November but were well below the corresponding

month last year with low fuel prices and the elimination of the VAT on imported grain and flour in early 2016 contributing to the low levels. In Georgia, prices of wheat flour declined slightly in November and were around their year-earlier levels. Prices of wheat grain declined also in the Republic of Moldova as a result of a bumper crop this year. In Armenia, retail prices of wheat flour weakened further in November and were down from a year earlier reflecting adequate supplies from the 2016 harvest and imports. By contrast, in Azerbaijan, prices of domestically‑produced and imported wheat flour strengthened in October and were well above their year-earlier levels, mainly as a result of the depreciation of the local currency. The year-on-year inflation in food prices jumped from 13 percent in August to 19 percent in October. Prices strengthened also in Belarus in October driven by a smaller crop this year coupled with currency weakness.

Export prices of milling wheat USD per tonne 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 Nov-14 Feb-15

Latest Price (Nov-16)

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16


Kazakhstan, Wheat (milling)

175.00

2

-10.5

-10.3

Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, offer, f.o.b., deep-sea ports)

182.33

4.3

6.9

-7.2

Ukraine, Wheat (milling, offer, f.o.b.)

181.67

4.1

6.1

-8.1

Nov-16

Source(s): APK-Inform Agency

Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine Latest Price (Nov-16)

Hryvnia per tonne 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16


National Average, Wheat (3rd class, bid, EXW, processing)

4183.33

3.3

10.8

16.2

National Average, Wheat (flour, first grade, offer, EXW)

5700.00

0

3.6

9.6

National Average, Wheat (flour, highest grade, offer, EXW)

5966.67

1.1

2.9

11

Nov-16



14


9 December 2016

cis - asia and europe

contd.

Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in the Russian Federation Latest Price (Nov-16)

Russian Ruble per tonne 21000 19000 17000 15000 13000 11000 9000 7000 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15 Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16 Aug-16


National Average, Wheat (Milling, 3rd class, offer, EXW)

10977.7

2.4

10

-0.2

Volga region, Wheat (flour, highest grade, offer, EXW)

16500.0

0

-1.9

-1.8

Central Black Earth, Wheat (flour, highest grade, offer, EXW)

16500.0

0

-4.1

0

Southern region, Wheat (flour, highest grade, offer, EXW)

16500.0

0.9

-0.3

0

Nov-16


Retail prices of wheat flour in Tajikistan Latest Price (Nov-16)

Somoni per kg 4.1


Khujand

2.86

2.5

0

3.7

Kurgonteppa

3.00

0

0

-6.2

3.5

Khorugh

3.20

0

-0.6

-13.5

3.3

National Average

3.36

0

0

-1.2

3.9

-2.7

3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan

Retail prices of wheat flour in Kyrgyzstan Latest Price (Nov-16)

Som per kg 40


Bishkek

28.90

-0.3

0.5

-15.9

36

National Average

29.74

-0.4

-5.8

-14.4

34

Naryn

29.22

-0.8

-1.3

-14

32

Batken

28.11

1

-1.7

-10.9

38

30 28 26 24 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic

Retail prices of wheat flour in Armenia Latest Price (Nov-16)

Armenian Dram per kg 500 450 400 350


National Average, Wheat (flour, high grade)

380.00

-1.9

-2.6

-7.7

National Average, Wheat (flour, first grade)

225.15

-0.3

-0.7

-9.1

300 250 200 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia


9 December 2016


15

central america and the caribbean White maize prices declined further, while those of beans increased Prices of white maize continued to seasonally decrease across most of the subregion in November with the entry into the markets of new product from the good main de primera season harvest which is virtually concluded. Favourable prospects for the second season crop, about to be harvested, added to the downward pressure. In El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, prices continued the declining trend of the previous two months and were well below their values in November last year, reflecting the strong recovery in output from last year’s drought-reduced levels. In Haiti, prices of locally-produced maize meal remained overall stable in November. In Les Cayes market, in the southwest of the country strongly affected by Hurricane Matthew, prices increased in November but at a lower rate than in the previous month as a result of imports and food assistance. In Mexico, prices declined in November for the first time after several months with the ongoing 2016 main season harvest which is expected to be good, but remained above their levels a year earlier mainly due to the weak local currency and sustained demand for exports. In most countries of the subregion, prices of beans increased in November as supplies from the de primera harvest, a secondary season for beans and mostly destined towards

the production of seeds for the main de postrera season, declined in the market. In El Salvador, a main importer, prices increased 3 percent but remained unchanged from their levels a year earlier, reflecting adequate imports over the past year. In Honduras and Nicaragua, both key producers and exporters, prices increased moderately in November but remained 14 and 24 percent down, respectively, from a year earlier reflecting good market supplies from the previous harvests. In Guatemala, prices of black beans, the variety mostly produced and consumed, increased significantly in November with seasonal trends exacerbated by a lower-than-anticipated output of the first season crop due to reduced yields. In Haiti, prices of black and red beans were relatively stable or declined across the main markets and were generally below their year-earlier levels. In Les Cayes market, bean prices declined sharply in November reflecting increased supplies following the delivery of food assistance. In the Dominican Republic, retail prices of black and red beans strengthened somewhat in November but remained well below their levels a year earlier. In Mexico, black bean prices were unchanged but higher than in November last year reflecting the weak local currency and tight domestic supplies.

Wholesale prices of white maize in Central America Latest Price (Nov-16)

USD per tonne 600 550 500 450 400


Guatemala, Guatemala City

327.14

-9.9

-22.7

-6.5

El Salvador, San Salvador

327.36

-9.8

-19.5

-20.8

Honduras, Tegucigalpa

281.60

-7

-38.5

-19.1

Nicaragua, Managua (oriental)

301.62

-3.3

-45.8

-20.2

350 300 250 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG; SIMPAH

Wholesale prices of beans in Central America Latest Price (Nov-16)

USD per tonne 2500

Honduras, Tegucigalpa, Beans (red)

2000


767.80

6

-27.3

-18.3

Guatemala, Guatemala City, Beans (black)

1350.14

9

8.9

21.5

1500

El Salvador, San Salvador, Beans (red)

1156.32

3.3

-2.3

0

1000

Nicaragua, Managua (oriental), Beans (red)

807.40

3.1

-22.7

-27.2

500 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): SIMPAH; Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG


16


9 December 2016

south america Prices of wheat and maize followed mixed trends but generally at high levels Yellow maize prices followed mixed trends in the subregion in November and were generally above their year-earlier levels, reflecting tight supplies on account of the 2016 reduced maize harvests and strong import demand. In Argentina, prices increased for the second consecutive month in November with seasonal trends exacerbated by strong import demand and were more than double their values a year earlier. In Brazil, maize prices declined further in November mainly pressured by high imports in recent months and reduced demand from the feed industry. Favourable prospects for the 2017 first season crop, recently planted, also weighed on prices which, however, remained higher than a year earlier. In Bolivia, prices generally weakened further in November with the 2016 secondary season harvest and imports, but remained well above their levels in the corresponding month last year due to the relatively tighter supplies after the drought-reduced 2016 aggregate crop. In Peru, maize prices declined in November but were more than 20 percent higher year-on-year due to a lower output this year and, similarly, in Chile, the sharp decline in production kept maize prices higher compared to a year earlier. In Colombia, maize prices also declined but were well below their levels in November last year, reflecting adequate domestic supplies from the good 2016 harvest. By contrast, in Ecuador, seasonal trends, exacerbated

by tight supplies from a reduced output this year, underpinned prices in November which were above their levels a year earlier. As for wheat grain and wheat flour, in Argentina, strong import demand offset the downward pressure from the ongoing 2016 wheat harvest and prices remained nearly 50 percent and 70 percent above their year-earlier values, respectively. In Bolivia, wheat flour prices generally declined in November as wheat imports supplied the local markets. However, in the main producing region of Santa Cruz, prices remained above year-earlier levels sustained by tight supplies due to the reduced 2016 output. In Brazil, prices of wheat grain and wheat flour declined in November and were below their levels a year earlier, mainly reflecting increased supplies from the new harvest and low prices in the international market. In Peru, prices of wheat flour remained stable and slightly down from a year earlier. Also in Colombia, prices remained relatively stable but were higher than a year earlier, mainly supported by a weak local currency, while in Chile, prices eased somewhat in November and were well below their year-earlier values. Prices of staple rice declined or remained relatively stable in the subregion and were down or around their year-earlier levels, with the main exception of Brazil, where prices in November were some 30 percent higher due to a reduced 2016 output.

Wholesale prices of yellow maize and wheat in Argentina Latest Price (Nov-16)

Argentine Peso per tonne 3000 2500


Rosario, Maize (yellow)

2590.73

3

Buenos Aires, Wheat

2239.46

0.3

7.6 104.9 -7.8

48.9

2000 1500 1000 500 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Bolsa de Cereales

Wholesale prices of yellow maize and wheat in Brazil Latest Price (Nov-16)

Brazilian Real per tonne 900


São Paulo, Maize (yellow)

581.12

-8.6

-14.5

National Average, Maize (yellow)

700

610.12

-5.3

-11.8

36.1

São Paulo, Wheat

606.46

-6.7

-30.2

-14.2

600

National Average, Wheat

533.61

-8.4

-22.8

-6.2

800

14.7

500 400 300 Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Source(s): Agrolink


9 December 2016


17

This bulletin is prepared by the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team in the Trade and Markets Division of FAO. It contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries, complementing FAO analysis on international markets. It provides early warning on high food prices at country level that may negatively affect food security. This report is based on information available up to early December 2016. All the data used in the analysis can be found in the FPMA Tool at: www.fao.org/giews/pricetool For more information visit the FPMA Website at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices Enquiries may be directed to: GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Viale delle Terme di Caracalla 00153 Rome, Italy E-mail: [email protected]

Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. © FAO, 2016

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis | 9 December 2016

I6609En/1/12.16